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WAR IS NOT ABOUT ETHICS

GOD IS NEITHER WITH US NOR WITH THEM

THERE IS NOTHING INEVITABLE IN HISTORY

USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ OR ITS CULMINATING POINT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY
USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ

In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical
level has became a laughing stock for the world.Starting from the premise that both
USA's total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state
with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re-consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide.

The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged down vehicle.This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan.If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh.

Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s , taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources,Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia's reassertion and regeneration.

The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents.They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned.The Russians

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let-the-dragons-fight-the-dragons-a-h-amin-september-2008

  1. 1. LET THE DRAGONS FIGHT THE DRAGONS BY MAJOR AGHA H AMIN SEPTEMBER 2008 Major Agha H Amin (retired)
  2. 2. About the Author About the Author Agha H. Amin , Retired Tank corps major who served in five tank regiments and commanded an independent tank squadron and served in various staff , instructional and research assignments. In his Pakistan Army tenure he wrote three original tactical papers on Reconnaissance Troops Tactical handling, Reconnaissance support group , and RFS Concept. His writings were published in Pakistan Armys prime journals , Pakistan Army Journal and Citadel Journal of Command and Staff College Quetta. His recommendations regarding bifurcation of officer corps into command and staff cadre advanced in 1998 were later accepted. In addition his recommendation of grouping various corps into army commands advanced in
  3. 3. an article published in Citadel Journal in 1998 were accepted in 2005 or so. Wrote The Essential Clausewitz in 1993, Sepoy Rebellion of 1857-59 in 1998 , Pakistan Army till 1965 in 1999 ,Development of Taliban Factions in Afghanistan and Pakistan (2010) ,Taliban War in Afghanistan (2009). Served as Assistant Editor of Defence Journal ,Executive Editor of globe and Founder Editor of Journal of Afghanistan Studies . An associate of the think tanks ORBAT and Alexandrian Defense group. Carried out various oil and gas and power transmission line surveys in West Asia. Editor in Chief of monthly Intelligence Review and monthly Military and Security Review. Heads the think tank Centre for study of Intelligence Operations established in early 2010.
  4. 4. SEPTEMBER 2008 WAR IS NOT ABOUT ETHICS GOD IS NEITHER WITH US NOR WITH THEM
  5. 5. THERE IS NOTHING INEVITABLE IN HISTORY USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ OR ITS CULMINATING POINT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical level has became a laughing stock for the world.Starting from the premise that both USA's total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re- consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide. The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged
  6. 6. down vehicle.This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan.If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh. Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s , taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources,Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia's reassertion and regeneration. The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents.They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned.The Russians
  7. 7. contained US influence in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and countered it in Kirgizistan with a rival Soviet base.The Iranians did not budge or blink.US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan presented a golden target for Islamists in getting a really swift short cut to paradise.The USA did not make use of the smaller ethnicities like Baloch or Kurd.They continued to rely on the multi ethnic larger states and were decieved and robbed of many billion US dollars.Iraq was not pacified and its situation to date is unstable and unpredictable.Iran was strengthened in the process with a Shia regime in Iraq.Another Shia regime in Syria,unchallenged and dealt with by the USA and the Hezbollah in Lebanon.In short the USA landed into a long term strategic stalemate.A sitting duck target which can be attacked by guerrila forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.Its a matter of time that the anti US forces acquire SAM missiles.And once this happens the USA would have to rely on greater troop levels which would be costly and financially very very draining. In case of Pakistan the USA again failed to achieve any of its objectives.If there were any.Pakistan was not denuclearised.Its non state actors were not
  8. 8. pacified.And above all the team which the USA had handpicked in Pakistan failed to deliver.China remains healthy and growing.Russia is now riposting the USA in Georgia and Ukraine and covertly at many places.In short in seven years of war and with heavy expenses the USA achieved little.Afghanistan was not reconstructed but the seeds of its Balkanistaion firmly planted.All US money went to US contractors or smaller contractors from Turkey,Lebanon,South Korea and Afghanistan. Instead of shifting troops to Afghanistan or enlarge the war to Iran or Pakistan the USA needs to re-think its entire strategy. Some key features of a new strategy may be :-- 1-Withdraw from both Iraq and Afghanistan while retaining bases in the Gulf/Pakistan/Saudi Arabia. 2-Instead of fighting the Al Qaeda or Taliban directly,let them give a chance to once again become state actors and present both Russia and China a serious threat. 3-Retain international goodwill by acting as a power which stands for peace.
  9. 9. 4-Make the regional actors do the job of making the world a safer place.These include Russia,China,India,Iran,Saudi Arabia,Iraq,UAE etc. 5-Concentrate on the USA mainland and on intelligence assets rather than actual physical combat. 6-Create new client states dependent wholly on US support in the region. 7-Cease wasting a cent in states like Afghanistan,Pakistan and Iraq.Afghanistan will be managed by Russia,China,India,Iran and Pakistan who will countercheck each other and the area would have a permanent stalemate with no victors.Simlarly India and Pakistan will balance each other.Indians fear Pakistani nuclear devices more than USA and its Quixotic to think that Pakistani nuclear devices would ever be used against USA. The most important feature of the new strategy would be withdrawal from both Iraq and Afghanistan.This would immediately lead to a new power struggle with Iraq and Afghanistans neighbour also involved deeply rather than being silent spectators as now.Any Taliban victory in Afghanistan and any Al Qaeda victory or a Shia
  10. 10. victory in Iraq would restart the old Arab Iran struggle in Iraq.Fat oil rich Arab states would be spending all the money instead of the USA.In Afghanistan also any Taliban resurgence would force Russia ,China,India and Iran to step in and the Taliban would still be contained without a single US cent wasted. The best strategy to make others fight and if fight , fight with minimum expense ! Do the American decision makers have grey matter ! Thats the billion dollar question !

WAR IS NOT ABOUT ETHICS GOD IS NEITHER WITH US NOR WITH THEM THERE IS NOTHING INEVITABLE IN HISTORY USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ OR ITS CULMINATING POINT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical level has became a laughing stock for the world.Starting from the premise that both USA's total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re-consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide. The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged down vehicle.This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan.If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh. Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s , taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources,Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia's reassertion and regeneration. The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents.They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned.The Russians

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