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Modelling an individual country within the
context of the surrounding energy systems – the
importance of detail
Jakob Zinck Thellufsen
Assistant Professor, Aalborg University
Introduction
• Modelling focus on a specific area
• Country
• City
• Region
• But how important are the surroundings?
• How does development of the energy systems
affect results?
2
Surrounding energy systems
3
Methodology
• Investigating two principal items
1) The impact of energy system development
2) How dissagregated the surroundings are
• Island mode
• One surrounding region
• Each surrounding country as one model
• Germany in the context of
• Netherlands, Belgium, France, Poland, Austria and Czech
Republic
4
The use of EnergyPLAN and
EPlanFlow
• We use consistent
models for each country
• Current state and with
increased wind
• All are built in
EnergyPLAN
• We use the add on
EPlanFlow to investigate
the flows in the
connected systems
Island Mode Case country
and 1
aggregated
region
(Aggregated
Surroundings)
Case country
and each
individual
country
(Detailed
Surroundings)
All reference
scenario
Only case
country
modelled
Model case
country and
aggregate to 1
region
Model all
countries
Case study
renewable, the
rest reference
Only case
country
modelled
Model case
country and
aggregate to 1
region
Model all
countries
All renewable Not relevant,
same as above
Model case
country and
aggregate to 1
region
Model all
countries
5
EnergyPLAN
6
EPlanFlow
7
EnergyPLAN simulation of
each node
Economic simulation
Powerflow
optimisation of
response curves
from EnergyPLAN
EnergyPLAN simulation of
each node
Technical simulation
EnergyPLAN
scenario file for
each node
Time series of
demands and
renewable
production
Network
constraints
between nodes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 20 40 60 80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 20 40 60 80
Response curves for
every hour in every node
Time series file of
import/export exchange in
every node
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0 10 20 30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30
The connection
8
FR
DE
PL
CZ
AT
BE
NL
The changes in wind
Country Reference [MW] Renewable [MW]
Germany 27201.50 271740.00
Netherlands 1992.32 50165.00
Belgium 353.46 353.46
Czech Republic 181.03 29439.00
Poland 979.50 63485.00
France 5178.48 5178.48
Austria 934.50 25725.00
9
Country Reference [TWh] Renewable [TWh]
Germany 46.05 460.05
Netherlands 3.66 92.27
Belgium 0.65 0.65
Czech Republic 0.28 45.40
Poland 1.71 110.65
France 9.32 9.32
Austria 1.79 49.30
Results
10
Results
11
Results
12
Conclusions
• In all cases does more wind lead to fewer CO2
emissions
• However, the fully detailed one shows that this might
happen in Germany
• The level of detail influences decisions
• The planner and researcher needs to know what
happens
• Increase system integration
13
Thank you for your attention!
Questions?
Contact:
+45 99 40 82 89
jakobzt@plan.aau.dk
14

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Modelling an individual country within the context of the surrounding energy systems – the importance of detail

  • 1. Modelling an individual country within the context of the surrounding energy systems – the importance of detail Jakob Zinck Thellufsen Assistant Professor, Aalborg University
  • 2. Introduction • Modelling focus on a specific area • Country • City • Region • But how important are the surroundings? • How does development of the energy systems affect results? 2
  • 4. Methodology • Investigating two principal items 1) The impact of energy system development 2) How dissagregated the surroundings are • Island mode • One surrounding region • Each surrounding country as one model • Germany in the context of • Netherlands, Belgium, France, Poland, Austria and Czech Republic 4
  • 5. The use of EnergyPLAN and EPlanFlow • We use consistent models for each country • Current state and with increased wind • All are built in EnergyPLAN • We use the add on EPlanFlow to investigate the flows in the connected systems Island Mode Case country and 1 aggregated region (Aggregated Surroundings) Case country and each individual country (Detailed Surroundings) All reference scenario Only case country modelled Model case country and aggregate to 1 region Model all countries Case study renewable, the rest reference Only case country modelled Model case country and aggregate to 1 region Model all countries All renewable Not relevant, same as above Model case country and aggregate to 1 region Model all countries 5
  • 7. EPlanFlow 7 EnergyPLAN simulation of each node Economic simulation Powerflow optimisation of response curves from EnergyPLAN EnergyPLAN simulation of each node Technical simulation EnergyPLAN scenario file for each node Time series of demands and renewable production Network constraints between nodes 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 20 40 60 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 20 40 60 80 Response curves for every hour in every node Time series file of import/export exchange in every node -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 0 10 20 30 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 0 10 20 30
  • 9. The changes in wind Country Reference [MW] Renewable [MW] Germany 27201.50 271740.00 Netherlands 1992.32 50165.00 Belgium 353.46 353.46 Czech Republic 181.03 29439.00 Poland 979.50 63485.00 France 5178.48 5178.48 Austria 934.50 25725.00 9 Country Reference [TWh] Renewable [TWh] Germany 46.05 460.05 Netherlands 3.66 92.27 Belgium 0.65 0.65 Czech Republic 0.28 45.40 Poland 1.71 110.65 France 9.32 9.32 Austria 1.79 49.30
  • 13. Conclusions • In all cases does more wind lead to fewer CO2 emissions • However, the fully detailed one shows that this might happen in Germany • The level of detail influences decisions • The planner and researcher needs to know what happens • Increase system integration 13
  • 14. Thank you for your attention! Questions? Contact: +45 99 40 82 89 jakobzt@plan.aau.dk 14