บทความเก่าที่ลงใน Trandnovation Issue 5 ครับ

1. POWER SHIFTS - ISSUE 5 3 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER
THE UNFAmILIAR WAR
By
Colonel Dr. Teeranan
Nandhakwang, Deputy
Director, Strategic Studies
and Research Division,
Royal Thai Army.
The relationship between politics and the military in
Southeast Asian countries has always been deep-
rooted, with military actors openly playing political
roles on a diverse political landscape ranging from
authoritarian military regimes to full democracies.
Though in recent decades military influence on
political structures has generally become less overt,
it remains very much as a central pillar shaping power
structures in the region.
Figure 1: Modalities of nation states
But how will this change in the future? Will military
influences in the political arena wane under the pres-
tricate power games and granting of political favor
sures of Western-style democratization? Will armed
to sustain the locus of political power and continuity
forces be ready to face a journey of self-transfor-
of economic stability. The distance between political
mation towards the Western model- that of a ‘pro-
parties and the armed forces is considered a fairly
fessional army’ whose role is restricted to shielding
good indicator of the overall level of democratization,
and protecting the nation state from external military
and explains the emergence of different modalities
threat? This article discusses some of the factors and
(as illustrated in Figure 1).
trends that might lead to such a shift.
However, over the coming decade we may witness
an erosion of this broad playing field for the military in
TREND A: Southeast Asia, as greater transparency challenges
DEmOcRATIzATION the legitimacy of the convergence of interests be-
tween the military and political elites. Mounting social
OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN opposition and even distaste for the military’s history
ARmED FORcES of supporting political elites have brought unfamiliar
pressures that challenge the military’s traditional loy-
alties to the elites.
Elites of all political colors have long cultivated close The middle classes in some leading economies such
relationships with the military, characterized by in- as Singapore and Thailand appear generally con-
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.

2. TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 4 ISSUE 5 - POWER SHIFTS
tent to see a role for the armed forces as a guardian
of economic stability, and (in Thailand’s case) as a
backstop when political feuds escalate to the extent
that they jeopardize national stability and particularly,
economic activity. In Thailand, for example, it is com-
monly observed that Thai society seems to yearn for
a knight on a white horse to solve short-term prob-
lems by whatever means, without considering the
longer-term repercussions.
But today, this status quo is challenged by the grow-
ing power of alliances among less privileged middle
income earners and the poor who, unhappy with wid-
ening income disparities, are undermining the exist-
ing political hegemony. As these new political forces
press for a greater voice, an inexorable shift in the
balance of power between the elites and the armed
forces seems set to redefine the way the political pie
is divided.
Partnerships and accommodation between political
parties and armed forces have always been regard-
ed as strategically essential in the interests of both
security and stability. With at least three major long-
term flashpoints in the region, this is no mere rheto- Source: http://dabbondanzo.umwblogs.org/globalization-
ric. Ideological confrontation remains unresolved economic-colonization/
across the Taiwan Straits and between the two Ko-
reas, nuclear-armed India and Pakistan are at their
highest level of confrontation since the early 1970s, world except the USA and the NATO countries. The
and Indonesia- the world’s fourth-largest country- is stakes are therefore undeniably high for both politi-
facing major internal conflicts that threaten its very cians and generals - whilst domestic political forces
existence. How it deals with demands for democracy, clamor for greater separation between military and
decentralization and political and religious diversity political powers, geopolitical considerations demand
could well influence the course of events in Asia and that the military and politicians close ranks in an un-
beyond. And the list goes on- the recent face-off shakeable alliance to protect against these simmer-
between Japan and China over Japan’s arrest of a ing and very real threats to regional security. How
Chinese ship’s captain was a disturbing reminder of the region’s armed forces respond to such competing
the many territorial disputes that threaten to re-ignite demands will be closely watched as a measure of the
deep-seated historical, territorial, ideological, and re- professionalism of the military as well as a bellwether
ligious conflicts in the region. of the risk of war or regional military conflicts. ‘Profes-
sionalism’ has become a buzzword in today’s military
It should therefore come as no surprise therefore that debate: what that really means might be open to wide
the Asia-Pacific region spends about US$150 billion interpretation.
a year on defense more than any other part of the
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.

3. POWER SHIFTS - ISSUE 5 5 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER
TREND B: ASEAN’s aspirations to become a single economic
community by 2015 are underpinned by expectations
AN EmERgINg PARADIgm- that harmonization will catalyze greater cohesion
THE NEW BATTLEFIELD among its peoples at all levels- culturally, politically,
commercially and militarily. However, this free flow
of trade and labour mobility will increase the burden
on security forces to deal with transnational crimes,
With the economies, resources and geopolitical sig- particularly narcotics, people trafficking and terror-
nificance of the ASEAN region and its trade routes, ism. Thailand may face the brunt of a new wave of
a complex strategic situation is emerging as China, these activities due to its strategic location at the hub
Japan and India compete among themselves for of Southeast Asia.
military and economic advantage over their lucra-
tive backyard, and in a more united challenge to the These two trends- democratization and the emer-
dominance of the USA in the region. This of course gence of non-traditional security threats- carry pro-
is only to be expected. However, the ascent of radi- found implications for the role of the military around
cal fundamentalism has brought disruptive and irre- the region. In the domestic arena, the military’s role
vocable change that significantly raises the political in politics and in society at large will come under
and economic risk across the region. Their methods greater scrutiny, and on the regional scene, there
have exposed the impotence of both politicians and seems to be no alternative to ramping up the level of
military forces to deal with non-traditional threats that regional cooperation, especially among national in-
do not fit with traditional set-piece battle strategies. telligence services, in order to deal with the growing
Military strategies, designed for battle with a vis- threats to economic security, and provide effective
ible, identifiable enemy in a specific location, have regional mechanisms for mediating in national con-
been blown asunder by 9/11 and subsequent attacks flicts among ASEAN member states.
around the world.
Globalization and greater freedom of movement have
facilitated the ease with which terrorist movements
can operate in their attempts to destabilize Western
political and economic confidence; their tactics have
proved remarkably effective in creating a climate of
fear and economic insecurity.
The shortcomings of traditional military strategy are
exacerbated in Asia by the weaknesses of the kind of
regional security mechanisms that serve as a safety
net in the European arena. The Asian economic cri-
sis of 1997–1998 was a transformational event in
Southeast Asia that derailed attempts to establish a
role for ASEAN as a regional security organization,
as well as placing a severe strain on national defence
budgets. The crisis left ASEAN states with a sorely Source:
diminished ability to counter security threats, both http://no-pasaran.blogspot.com/2005_04_17_archive.html
traditional and non-traditional.
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.