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Preliminary presentation of AGI Foresight Study

Preliminary presentation of AGI Foresight Study

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  • Inclusive definition required for something where we no idea of its future shape!
  • Thanks to those who have already contributed ..........
  • Now to the presentations
  • http://www.twine.com/item/12wbdrgtb-598/youtube-layar-worlds-first-mobile-augmented-reality-browser
  • Geography and geographic information will continue to play a key part in policing and crime reduction over the next five years Applications such as calls for service and the publishing of crime statistics using online crime maps will continue to tick alongImprovements in information sharing may result in creating information overload leading to the receiving end of information having too much information, and not enough time or tools to understand it Geographic profiling will extend its application by helping to support volume crime investigations, but this opportunity will not be realised if developments in the tools to support linkage analysis are made The geographic information industry is well placed to assist in these two areas by helping to support the management of information, how it can be joined up, and identify the most significant patterns of interest.
  • Increased reliance on data as a service – challenges of archiving and licensing Data quality remains paramount Commercial nature of much proprietary data means data sharing within the energy industry will remain low, apart from regulatory purposes Data discovery needs to improve, but this does not mean big metadata projects Everyone likes standards, as long as they are their own ... Berik Davies
  • . Progression up the value chain: less emphasis on environmental monitoring data collection and more on joining, linking, analysing and generally “adding value” to the data;2.  Integration of environmental factors into business intelligence functions: environmental intelligence at a strategic, tactical and operational decision making level;3.  Need to be able to understand, interpret and communicate uncertainty in information sets;4.  The erosion of distinctions between experts and laity. This impacts on ownership of information, the quality of the added value and the engagement process using the information;5.  “Its not about the data” – beware of sceptics left drowning in a sea of data.Bill Oates
  • . Geography is an integrating discipline which has huge benefits to offer the financial services sector but to date take up has been surprisingly slow 2. Enterprise GIS - Capital management disciplines promoted by Basle II and Solvency II will ultimately use enterprise wide GIS solutions to underpin core business processes to improve the assumption / pricing and pro-active management of risk / accumulations. 3. Structural change in the industry These capital management disciplines will force the adoption of new portfolio management techniques and business modelling disciplines in both the banking and insurance sectors – with the emergence of new specialists to serve specific European and global markets, employing best in breed technology to stay at the forefront of their sector.  4. GIS enabled methods of analysing risk A new breed of market entrants will emerge to exploit structural weaknesses of the legacy IT infrastructure of existing players in the financial services sector. These entrants will seek to exploit their brands, embrace new technologies such as GIS to manage risk more effectively and will focus on effective capital management disciplines to maximise returns  5. The outlook for the UK Financial Services sector - The structure of the financial services market in the UK is likely to be supported rather than challenged by these new disciplines – and the adoption of new technologies such as GIS - which will enable the transparent end to end review of core processes.Graham Wallace
  • The changing role of local authorities from a direct provider of wide ranging local services to an enabler requires a shift in the way data are managed, made available and accessible and licensed; Digital engagement will foster the participation of citizens and business in the update and reuse of public data; The need for a new value proposition for core reference geospatial information will most likely require a shift in data policy and the removal of obstructive intellectual property right barriers; Constraints on public sector finances will mean wider partnership working and much greater reliance on shared and more cost effective geospatial services by pooling resources and technical infrastructures;Local authorities have considerable and sometimes cutting edge experience in meeting the requirements of a spatial data infrastructure which will be invaluable for INSPIRE. GescheSchmit / Brian Higgs
  • Primary focus is to support charting from the perspective of navigational safety with current difficulty in wider use – wider range of products and services will emerge.Integration of land and marine SDIs.UKHO divided in two: one part meting the needs of Defence and acting like other hydrographic offices worldwide; the second part a private company.Mike Osborne
  • Graphical reportage and GI dashboards will become de rigueur at all levels of the business ...... overpriced data sources will be impacted by an increasingly competitive marketplace, with new offerings undercutting the old hegemonies of the Ordnance Survey. Greater granularity in customer information and segmentation, enabled by embedded geodata elements, will allow for wild and exciting interpretations and analyses of the customer profiles...... TomTom app for inside the store will guide you to your item, just as you do in the car to direct you to the supermarket. Dissemination will be key to the GI strategy of the future, empowering and enabling traditionally non-GI fluent users to access, visualise and investigate for themselves data pertinent to their sphere of the company. Audun Clark
  • . Improvements in road network and related data will continue steadily, and will feed through into business applications, as well as enhancing the effectiveness of satellite navigation. 2. The green agenda will continue to have an influence on the transport industry. Businesses will want to parade their credentials as part of their marketing message, and geospatial data will be a key element for them in achieving the necessary transparency and efficiency gains. However, cost saving will remain the biggest incentive to purchasing of technology. 3. Organisations will increasingly look to improve the information they have about vehicles on the move. Their interest will extend from vehicle tracking systems to real-time monitoring of arrival times and presenting of tracking information to customers. 4. Optimisation solutions will be adopted even more widely than at present in the private sector, and increasingly in the public sector too – introducing savings in activities such as waste collection and disposal. 5. Geographic information will increasingly be integrated into the mainstream information technology systems of transport operators. Track and trace, visibility of the progress of an order, expected time of delivery, real-time proof of delivery, improved customer service: most of these things have already moved past the peak of the so-called Gartner Hype Cycle, and will steadily entrench themselves as “must-have” elements in the everyday transport mix. Mary Short
  • The Ambulance Services depend on geographical information as an integral part of their work.The use of geographical information elsewhere in the healthcare market is generally limited.The healthcare market is one of the largest in the UK, at about £120bn pa or almost 10% of GDP.The budget per capita is likely to reduce in real terms by 2015, so efficient use of resources is key.World class commissioning is a political initiative in which the spatial industry should play its part.Jamie Justham
  • Transcript

    • 1. AGI Foresight Study
      A Vision of the Geospatial industry in 2015
      John Pepper
      AGI Chairman
    • 2. Agenda
      Setting the Scene
      John Pepper
      Data and Technology
      Andrew Coote
      Market Directions
      Steven Feldman
      Public Policy and Business Models
      Robin McLaren
      Open Debate
    • 3. Prediction is very difficult,
      especially about the future.
      Neils Bohr (1885-1962)
    • 4. Defining the Geospatial Market
      Information, processes, products and services where location is a significant component.
      or
      Any endeavour where our expertise can be used to the benefit of citizens, business and good governance
    • 5. Expert Contributors
      Alan Belward
      Alan Dodson
      Andrew Hudson-Smith
      Andrew Woolf
      Berik Davies
      Bill Oates
      Charles Arthur
      Stephen Booth
      Chris Osborne
      Gary Gale
      Gesche Schmid
      Graham Wallace
      Iain Greenway
      Jo Cook
      John Pepper
      Jamie Justham
      Mary Short
      Michael Nicholson
      Mick Cory
      Mike Osborne
      Muki Haklay
      Nick Rigby
      Peter Batty
      Peter ter Haar
      Richard Groom
      Rob Walker
      Spencer Chainey
      Stewart Fotheringham
      Jon Raper
      Steven Feldman
      William Mackaness
      Andy Wells
      Robin McLaren
      Chris Holcroft
      Hugh Neffendorf
      Tony Black
      Graham Vowles
      Brian Higgs
      Alun Jones
      Sung Hyun Jong
      Audun Clark
      Marek Ziebart
      Thierry Gregorius
      Tim Duffy
      Claire Huppertz
    • 6. Next Steps
      Highlights presentations (today)
      Open survey on key Questions (now – Christmas)
      Summary Report (in preparation)
      Final results will be published in January
      AGI consider implications for the organisation
    • 7. Complementary Perspectives
      Data and
      Technology
      Markets
      Policy
    • 8. Data and Technology
    • 9. Geospatial Information is Pervasive
      Position will be “always available”
      through Smartphones, RFID tags and other sensors.
      The value to each application will be variable,
      but it will always be there.
    • 10. Sub-metre accuracy 3D data is available for all urban areas
      “Imagery becomes a commodity, viewed and distributed on the web almost for free. Mass market removed and specialist capture returns”. Andy Wells
    • 11. Augmented Reality
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b64_16K2e08
    • 12. Global Navigation Satellite System
      “Multi-constellation GNSS providing 100 satellites
      Centimetre positioning commonly achievable in a
      mobile environment.” Alan Dodson
      Source: klipsi.ch
    • 13. Cloud Computing:the dominant delivery mechanism
      “Essentially it will mean that users of IT-related services will be able to focus on what the service provides them rather than how the services are implemented or hosted.”
      Gartner (2009)
    • 14. Location based Services
      “Mainstream consumer-focused location aware smartphones and related location based services will make significant inroads into the enterprise, significantly reducing the cost and effort required for many mobile applications.” Peter Batty
    • 15. Earth Observation Satellites
      “By 2015 governmental organisations will operate
      over 200 EO satellites carrying 385 different instruments.
      Turning data from such a range of systems
      into information calls for a corresponding range of scientific and technical competencies.” Alan Belward
    • 16. Open Source Geospatial Software
      GRASS
      OpenLayers
      “In 5 years time, Open Source Geospatial won't be a niche or a specialism, it will be the standard way that things are done.” Jo Cook
    • 17. Crowd sourcing
      “Five years ago OpenStreetMap didnʼt exist, so forecasting the
      future of crowdsourced data feels particularly futile.”
      “However, the UK is predicted to be complete,
      at the street level, in 14 months time.”
      “There will be more than 1,000,000 users in much less
      than five years time.” Chris Osborne
    • 18. Geomatics
      “I can envisage a market for 3D point cloud data from lidar combined with mobile scanning by ground vehicles.” Richard Groom
    • 19. Semantic Web
      Google will parse complete natural language sentences in a single query – Gary Gale
    • 20. Some Resulting Challenges
      Discard the location-specific baggage and enter the mainstream.
      Survive and prosper alongside Google and other emerging global players.
      Engage with LBS developers and service providers and take advantage.
      Provide services to help users migrate through these paradigm shifts.
      Take location information into socially significant applications, e.g. climate change, participatory democracy, mega city planning
      Communicating with end users who don’t understand maps.
    • 21. Looking at Markets in 2015
      Steven Feldman
    • 22. Future gazing can be a risky business
    • 23. It’s not easy to predict the future …
    • 24. It’s easier to predict technology than the way it may be used
    • 25. An early mobile phone
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVtDWXohLXY
    • 26. Technology drives the Market
    • 27. 1cm accurate always available GPS
    • 28. Or even indoors
    • 29. Real time data feeds
      http://is.gd/lCrI
    • 30. Vehicle Telematics
    • 31. Passive Crowd Sourcing
    • 32. Cloud, Cloud, Cloud
    • 33. Commercial themes
    • 34. Falling Prices
    • 35.
    • 36.
    • 37.
    • 38. Resistance to change
    • 39. First mover advantage
    • 40. Crime and Public Safety Market
      “information sharing may result in creating an information explosion that results in those at the receiving end of information having too much information”
    • 41. Energy Market
      “Decisions will be based on data that will cost millions of dollars; a well that misses its target by 20m due to an incorrect or missing datum or CRS could mean the difference between exploration success or failure”
    • 42. Environmental Management
      1
      “In many cases, more information equals greater confusion – another dataset will be around the corner to refute any …“
    • 43. Financial Services
      “A new breed of market entrants will emerge to exploit structural weaknesses of the legacy IT infrastructure of existing players in the financial services sector”
    • 44. Local Government
      “public sector sourced and derived data will have to be more freely and openly available to manage this shift from centrally provided services to a more enabled and self service society”
    • 45. Marine and Coastal Markets
      “the greatest challenge to SDI creation is the existing culture and work practices that support a myriad of individual projects and legacy applications”
    • 46. Retail
      “Greater granularity in customer information and segmentation, enabled by embedded geodata elements, will allow for wild and exciting interpretations and analyses of the customer profiles, matching movement to will, location to desire and helping to model every expectation of every customer in a dynamically, visually representable way”
    • 47. Transport
      “The green agenda will continue to have an influence on the transport industry. Businesses will want to parade their credentials as part of their marketing message, and geospatial data will be a key element for them. However, cost saving will remain the biggest incentive to purchasing of technology”
    • 48. Health
      “Too often in the healthcare market it seems that spatial analysis is currently used to defend decisions which have already been made, rather than being relied upon to optimise the decision-making process itself. This contrasts with the best practice elsewhere in the public sector”
    • 49. More of the same?
    • 50. No Breakthroughs
      health
      government
      bi
      local government
      environment
      insurance
      defense
      transport
      resources
    • 51.
    • 52. Consumer
    • 53. Something Else or Somewhere Else?
      Location targeted advertising
      Mobile Navigation
      Hyperlocal News
      Location Based Social Networks
      Ubiquitous Location
      Location aware price comparison
    • 54. Where will the money be?
    • 55. How good is our foresight?
    • 56. Foreseeing the internet in the 60’s
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC5sbdvnvQM
    • 57. Know Edge Ltd
      57
      Looking at Policy in 2015
      Robin McLaren
    • 58. Did you know?
      58
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY
    • 59. Know Edge Ltd
      59
      Predicting the Future
      “While I can’t predict the future, after listening to 50 companies working on the same problem I have a view of what’s likely to happen”
      Nancy Peretsman, Managing Director, Allen & Co.
      [Supported Google to go public]
    • 60. Know Edge Ltd
      60
      Global Forces
    • 61. Know Edge Ltd
      61
      Drivers of Change 2015
      We are now in a global market.
      The shape of the geospatial industry in 2015, will be one influenced significantly by key global trends of a China (and USA) dominated world economy.
      China has a $3 trillion reserve to invest in assets and development around the world.
      Challenge
      To co-exist and take advantage of this level of potentially disruption as the balance of economic power changes.
    • 62. Know Edge Ltd
      62
      Source: www.biojobblog.com
      Source: www.smu.edu.sg
    • 63. Know Edge Ltd
      63
      Drivers of Change 2015
      We are currently preparing students for jobs that don’t exist, using technologies that haven’t been invented in order to solve problems that we don’t even know are problems yet.
      Challenge
      Death of the GIS MSc courses
      Appropriate GI capacity building in range of professions
    • 64. Know Edge Ltd
      64
      Public Sector Information
      Source: www.eom.com.my/terms
    • 65. Know Edge Ltd
      65
      Drivers of Change 2015
      data.gov.uk will soon expose over 1,100 government datasets and the adoption of the ‘linked data’ approach will enable significant innovation in its re-use.
      Gordon Brown announced that some data from the Ordnance Survey would be made online free of charge (following consultation);
      OPSI is reviewing and simplifying the government’s approach to PSI licensing.
      Challenge
      To create sustainable business models that will maintain data of appropriate quality in Making Public Data Public.
    • 66. Know Edge Ltd
      66
    • 67. Know Edge Ltd
      67
      Drivers of Change 2015
      A TechMarketView report said improvements to the teaching of science, technology, engineering and maths need to be made in order to create the next generation of software developers. Furthermore, better tax incentives for investment, corporate venturing, R&D support and so on could all help young software companies to flourish in the UK.
      Challenge
      To create a cluster of Location Information SMEs in the UK.
    • 68. Know Edge Ltd
      68
      Tyndrum, Scotland
      Giants Causeway, Northern Ireland
      a unique opportunity
      Snowdonia, Wales
      London, England
    • 69. Know Edge Ltd
      69
      Drivers of Change 2015
      UK Location Strategy.
      EU INSPIRE Directive.
      Devolved administrations’ GI Strategies.
      Making Public Data Public
      The economic situation for the next decade will significantly squeeze public sector budgets.
      Challenge
      To successfully implement these strategies with minimal public sector intervention – collaboration is key to success.
      To engage with the public sector through the efficiency and citizen empowerment agendas.
      To leverage private sector innovation.
    • 70. Know Edge Ltd
      70
      Institutional Change
    • 71. Know Edge Ltd
      71
      Drivers of Change 2015
      Independent Scotland!
      Institutional reform to drive efficiencies similar to Land & Property Services NI.
      Privatisation of elements of public sector.
      Empowering citizens and communities.
      Challenge
      A new institutional landscape.
      A new type of public sector – a streamlined central government.
      Impact on existing business models in private sector.
    • 72. Know Edge Ltd
      72
      Source: www.bestventureinc.com
    • 73. Know Edge Ltd
      73
      Reporting a Problem with Google Maps (USA)
    • 74. Know Edge Ltd
      74
      Drivers of Change 2015
      Momentum building in crowdsourcing to generate Open Data (OSM will have 1 millionth contributor).
      Google has adopted crowdsourcing policy.
      Challenge
      Few, if any countries, have generated data management policies that truly integrate and utilise this new, valuable resource of large scale, citizen initiated information. This paradigm shift has yet to be understood and absorbed at a government level.
    • 75. Know Edge Ltd
      75
    • 76. Know Edge Ltd
      76
      Drivers of Change 2015
      AGI needs to become a trusted spokesman on key social and technological issues, and to have a strong, high profile.
      The journey from a representative group to a professional body is a long and arduous one. Is it a journey that AGI wishes to make?
      Challenge
      If the journey is to be made, is it as a stand-alone GI profession, or as part of another professional grouping?
      ‘In this world the games developers will replace professional GIS specialists.’
    • 77. Know Edge Ltd
      77
      Data Privacy
      Source: www.easyheath.org.uk
    • 78. Know Edge Ltd
      78
      Drivers of Change 2015
      Sharing information about your self should be a transaction where the default is that you reject, in other words you have to opt-in NOT out
      In the consumer market data about yourself has become much more important – Facebook!
      The trend is now not to register Oyster cards as it provides information about where you’ve been.
      Challenge
      A large programme of work is required to get balance of privacy corrected. The structures (and software) exist to make this happen – Microsoft’s “passport” is an example.
    • 79. Know Edge Ltd
      79
      Source: www.abouttheimage.com
    • 80. Know Edge Ltd
      80
      Drivers of Change 2015
      GI is becoming ubiquitous, with “location” becoming part of mainstream information systems.
      GI standards will follow this move from being specific to GI into extensions of wider standards for general IT and application areas.
      The emphasis will change from syntax (form) to semantics (meaning).
      Challenge
      Accept that location information interoperability standards will migrate to W3C based standards.
    • 81. Know Edge Ltd
      81
      Value Added Resellers
      Source: www.thevarguy.com
    • 82. Know Edge Ltd
      82
      Drivers of Change 2015
      Rising user expectations, advances in technology, and new ways of working (based on Web 2.0) offer new opportunities and provide easier market entry to small players.
      The balance of power is moving from data producers to data users.
      It’s getting rather crowded up on Gartner’s ‘curve of enlightenment’. The cost of geospatial data and technology is likely to fall – as are the margins, but he market will increase in the consumer space.
      Challenge
      Microsoft and Google show no sign currently of moving into high value, but niche markets. If they do then this could be extremely disruptive to current data markets.
    • 83. Challenging times ahead
    • 84. Discard the location-specific baggage and enter the mainstream.
      Survive and prosper alongside Google and other emerging global players.
      Engage with LBS developers and service providers and take advantage.
      Provide services to help users migrate through these paradigm shifts.
      Take location information into socially significant applications, e.g. climate change, participatory democracy, mega city planning
      Communicating with end users who don’t understand maps.
      Challenging Technology
    • 85. Challenging Markets
      Technology drives the market
      Making money out of free
      From producer to consumer centric
      Resistance to change
      Information overload and lack of trust
      From consumer to enterprise
    • 86. Challenging Policy
      Economic power changes
      Appropriate GI capacity building
      Sustainable business models in the world of “free”
      Build a UK based global market leader
      A new type of public sector
      Are we a profession?
      Privacy is a nightmare
    • 87. Know Edge Ltd
      87
      Your Role
      A bright future won’t just happen. It is up to you to make it happen and shape the future.
      Source: www.mindyfuller.com
    • 88. Thank You

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