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Cognition as a Service (CaaS)
Jim Spohrer (IBM)
Seoul, South Korea; October 14, 2016
Consulting Conference
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1
AI Magazine: Cognition as a Service
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 2
CSIG = Cognitive Systems Institute Group
http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 3
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Today’s Talk
• Abstract: Cognition as a Service (CaaS)
• Introduction to the cognitive era of computing, in which cognitive
capabilities from natural language and video understanding, machine
learning, and decision support with explanations and levels of confidence
become broadly available as part of cognitive solutions in the cloud and
on personal devices such as smartphones. Building cognitive systems is
still too hard, but will be getting easier over next ten years.
• Bio:
• Jim Spohrer, IBM, Director Understanding Cognitive Systems
• Former Director, University; Service Research; CTO IBM VC Group
• Jim is developing a next generation curriculum to help learners build,
understand, and work with cognitive systems. Education: Yale Computer
Science (AI&CogSci) PhD, MIT Physics BS.
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 6
Jim Spohrer
IBM
Today’s Talk
• Four Cool Tech Topics
• Today: CaaS
• If time others
• Getting Started
• Universities
• Watson Developers
• Cloud Developers
• Servitization:
• Industry 4.0
• IoT
• CaaS
• Definitions
• Why this is still too hard
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Cognition as a Service (CaaS):
AI building blocks for IA solutions
Servitization of Industry 4.0 and IoT
Getting Started: Three Doors
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Universities Watson Developers Cloud Developers
Onthehub.com/IBM IBM.com/watson/developercloud Bluemix.net/catalog
HICSS.org World of Watson IBM INTERACT
Getting Started: IBM on the hub
http://onthehub.com/ibm
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Getting Started: Watson Developer Cloud
http://www.ibm.com/watson/developercloud/
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Getting Started: Watson APIs on Bluemix
https://console.ng.bluemix.net/catalog/
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Learn more about a service offering
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Learn more…
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 13
Try the service…
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10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 15
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 16
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IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing…
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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
Starter Kits
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Starter Kits: Social Customer Care
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Starter Kit...
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What is Industry 4.0?
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History of the idea: Mirror Worlds
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Why is this relevant?
I am still very skeptical…
but tell me more….
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Managers: Courage Required….
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Talent required, but…
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Industry 4.0
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CyberPhysical Systems?
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Industry 4.0
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Yesterday: Servitization
• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”
Tomorrow: Servitization
• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers
• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system
• Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything
• Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance across
their life-cycles
• Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance, efficiency,
maintenance, etc.
• Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with financing/Internet of
Service
• Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability
• Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability
• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service
innovation) for innovative university startups
Vision: MMaaRRSS
• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System
• “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for customer Y.”
• Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows
• Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)
• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
Circular Economy: Product to Service Thinking
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 37
“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
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I have…
Have you noticed how the building blocks just
keep getting better?
Learning to program:
My first program
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Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972
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Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016
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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016
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IBM Image Tagging
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Brief History
of AI
• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference
• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak
• 1990 – AI Winter
• 1997 – Deep Blue
• 1997 – 2011 Real-World
• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &
• True North Brain Chip
• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
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10/5/2016 46
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
Computing: Then, Now, Projected
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2035
2055
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What might Reality 2.0 look like?
What exists in 2016?
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360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
How fast is Artificial Intelligence approaching?
10/5/2016 53
What might it look like?
Definition: Intelligence
• Intelligence has been defined in many
different ways including as one's capacity
for logic, understanding, self-awareness,
learning, emotional knowledge, planning,
creativity and problem solving. It can be
more generally described as the ability to
perceive information, and retain it as
knowledge to be applied towards adaptive
behaviors within an environment or
context.
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Definitions: AI vs IA
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AI is Artificial Intelligence, or
intelligence in machines (smart machines)
IA is Intelligence Augmentation, or
people thinking and working together with smart machines.
IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” and
the smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or
more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)”
Cognition as a Service (CaaS):
AI building blocks for IA solutions
Augmenting Workers
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 56
How to augment workers? Very hard still
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Human Nature:
Sometimes people are lazy or in a hurry
Courtesy
Jean Paul Jacob
IBM Research Emeritus
Definitions: Types of Cognitive System Entities
(symbol and pattern processing systems)
• Socio-Technical (Organization-based)
• Businesses
• Cities
• Nations
• Biological (Brain-based)
• People
• Animals
• Technological (Computation-based)
• Embodied (Robot, Car, Device)
• Virtual (Local, Cloud)
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 59
Boosting Creativity and Productivity
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 60
61
What types of digital cognitive systems?
• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)
• Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do
something important in your personal or professional
lives
• Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone
votes
• Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for
health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make
better choices, find what you are looking for, move
around more effectively, provide emotional support,
provide IT support, learn about important public policy
goals and make better choices
• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 62
Types
• Tool
• Assistant
• Collaborator
• Coach
• Mediator
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 63
Types: Progression of models and capabilities
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 64
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++
tool assistant collaborator coach mediator
Build: 10 million minutes of experience
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 65
Build: 2 million minutes of experience
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 66
Build:
Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 67
Understand them…
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 68
Work with…
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 69
Next generation cognitive curriculum
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IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing…
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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
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Wise Service System:
All entities’ in network
use cognitive mediators
to enhance
value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:
Cognitive systems
with deep knowledge of both
customer (user) and provider (expert)
as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
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Cognitive Mediators
for all people in all roles
Occupations = Many Tasks
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Watson Discovery Advisor
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Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
User Models
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Courses
• 2015
• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
• 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
• 2025
• “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”
• Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
• 2035
• “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”
• Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
• Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know
themselves
• 2055
• “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
• Most people have 100 digital workers.
10/5/2016 77
In Summary
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“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities
Future-Ready T-Shapes
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IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive
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Explain external
phenomena
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Explain internal
phenomena
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Explain
value co-creation
phenomena
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Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems
Jim Spohrer (IBM)
Seoul, South Korea; October 14, 2016
Consulting Conference
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6
10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 85
10/5/2016
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
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10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 87
But this stuff is still really hard…
10/5/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
88

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Korea day2 tutorial 20161014 v6

  • 1. Cognition as a Service (CaaS) Jim Spohrer (IBM) Seoul, South Korea; October 14, 2016 Consulting Conference http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1
  • 2. AI Magazine: Cognition as a Service 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 2
  • 3. CSIG = Cognitive Systems Institute Group http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/ 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 3
  • 6. Today’s Talk • Abstract: Cognition as a Service (CaaS) • Introduction to the cognitive era of computing, in which cognitive capabilities from natural language and video understanding, machine learning, and decision support with explanations and levels of confidence become broadly available as part of cognitive solutions in the cloud and on personal devices such as smartphones. Building cognitive systems is still too hard, but will be getting easier over next ten years. • Bio: • Jim Spohrer, IBM, Director Understanding Cognitive Systems • Former Director, University; Service Research; CTO IBM VC Group • Jim is developing a next generation curriculum to help learners build, understand, and work with cognitive systems. Education: Yale Computer Science (AI&CogSci) PhD, MIT Physics BS. 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 6 Jim Spohrer IBM
  • 7. Today’s Talk • Four Cool Tech Topics • Today: CaaS • If time others • Getting Started • Universities • Watson Developers • Cloud Developers • Servitization: • Industry 4.0 • IoT • CaaS • Definitions • Why this is still too hard 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 7 Cognition as a Service (CaaS): AI building blocks for IA solutions Servitization of Industry 4.0 and IoT
  • 8. Getting Started: Three Doors 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 8 Universities Watson Developers Cloud Developers Onthehub.com/IBM IBM.com/watson/developercloud Bluemix.net/catalog HICSS.org World of Watson IBM INTERACT
  • 9. Getting Started: IBM on the hub http://onthehub.com/ibm 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 9
  • 10. Getting Started: Watson Developer Cloud http://www.ibm.com/watson/developercloud/ 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 10
  • 11. Getting Started: Watson APIs on Bluemix https://console.ng.bluemix.net/catalog/ 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 11
  • 12. Learn more about a service offering 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 12
  • 14. Try the service… 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 14
  • 18. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 18 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
  • 19. Starter Kits 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 19
  • 20. Starter Kits: Social Customer Care 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 20
  • 22. What is Industry 4.0? 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 22
  • 23. History of the idea: Mirror Worlds 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 23
  • 24. 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 24 Why is this relevant?
  • 25. I am still very skeptical… but tell me more…. 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 25
  • 34. Yesterday: Servitization • Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”
  • 35. Tomorrow: Servitization • Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers • Make the product part of a smart/wise service system • Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything • Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance across their life-cycles • Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc. • Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with financing/Internet of Service • Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability • Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability • Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups
  • 36. Vision: MMaaRRSS • Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System • “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for customer Y.” • Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows • Minimize transport costs (for products and waste) • The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
  • 37. Circular Economy: Product to Service Thinking 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 37
  • 38. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
  • 39. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 39 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
  • 40. Learning to program: My first program 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 40 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
  • 41. 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 41 Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
  • 42. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 42
  • 43. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 43
  • 44. IBM Image Tagging 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 44
  • 45. Brief History of AI • 1956 – Dartmouth Conference • 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds • 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation • 1988 – Expert Systems Peak • 1990 – AI Winter • 1997 – Deep Blue • 1997 – 2011 Real-World • 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI • 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute • 2014 – Watson Business Unit & • True North Brain Chip • 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 45
  • 46. 10/5/2016 46 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
  • 47. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 10/5/2016 47 2035 2055
  • 48. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 48
  • 49. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 49
  • 51. 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 51 What might Reality 2.0 look like?
  • 52. What exists in 2016? 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 52 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
  • 53. How fast is Artificial Intelligence approaching? 10/5/2016 53 What might it look like?
  • 54. Definition: Intelligence • Intelligence has been defined in many different ways including as one's capacity for logic, understanding, self-awareness, learning, emotional knowledge, planning, creativity and problem solving. It can be more generally described as the ability to perceive information, and retain it as knowledge to be applied towards adaptive behaviors within an environment or context. 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 54
  • 55. Definitions: AI vs IA 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 55 AI is Artificial Intelligence, or intelligence in machines (smart machines) IA is Intelligence Augmentation, or people thinking and working together with smart machines. IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” and the smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)” Cognition as a Service (CaaS): AI building blocks for IA solutions
  • 57. How to augment workers? Very hard still 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 57
  • 58. 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 58 Human Nature: Sometimes people are lazy or in a hurry Courtesy Jean Paul Jacob IBM Research Emeritus
  • 59. Definitions: Types of Cognitive System Entities (symbol and pattern processing systems) • Socio-Technical (Organization-based) • Businesses • Cities • Nations • Biological (Brain-based) • People • Animals • Technological (Computation-based) • Embodied (Robot, Car, Device) • Virtual (Local, Cloud) 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 59
  • 60. Boosting Creativity and Productivity 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 60
  • 61. 61
  • 62. What types of digital cognitive systems? • Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people) • Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something important in your personal or professional lives • Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone votes • Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices • Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 62
  • 63. Types • Tool • Assistant • Collaborator • Coach • Mediator 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 63
  • 64. Types: Progression of models and capabilities 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 64 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Capacity & Limits User Model/ Episodic Memory Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ tool assistant collaborator coach mediator
  • 65. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 65
  • 66. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 66
  • 67. Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 67
  • 69. Work with… 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 69
  • 70. Next generation cognitive curriculum 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 70
  • 71. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 71 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
  • 72. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 72 Wise Service System: All entities’ in network use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions Cognitive Mediators: Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert) as co-creators of win-win value Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
  • 73. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 73 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
  • 74. Occupations = Many Tasks 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 74
  • 75. Watson Discovery Advisor 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 75 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
  • 76. User Models 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 76
  • 77. Courses • 2015 • “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” • 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy • 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 • “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” • Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 • “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” • Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day • Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 • “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” • Most people have 100 digital workers. 10/5/2016 77
  • 78. In Summary 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 78 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  • 80. IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 80
  • 81. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 81 Explain external phenomena
  • 82. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 82 Explain internal phenomena
  • 83. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 83 Explain value co-creation phenomena
  • 84. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 84 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
  • 85. Jim Spohrer (IBM) Seoul, South Korea; October 14, 2016 Consulting Conference http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6 10/5/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 85
  • 86. 10/5/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 86
  • 88. But this stuff is still really hard… 10/5/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 88

Editor's Notes

  1. For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Cognition as a Service: An Industry Perspective URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6 11:30-01:00 Yassi Moghaddam, ISSIP Thriving your business through Smart service ecosystems, 01:00-02:00 Lunch 02:00-03:20 KangYoon Lee, HanSung Univ AI Strategy for New Industrial Growth - 4th Industrial revolution and Digital Marketing - AI Technology and References - AI Platform Business and Ecosystem model - AI Business Insights 03:40-05:30 Il-Yeol Song, Drexel Univ Data Science for Artificial Intelligence (tentative) Second Talk in Korea Am I only needed on Friday Oct 14th from ? 09:30-11:10 Jim Spohrer, IBM Cognition as a Service : Industry Perspective (like a Tutorial Session, 100 Minutes) Cognition as a Service: An Industry Perspective This talk will provide an introduction to the cognitive era of computing, in which cognitive capabilities from natural language and video understanding, machine learning, and decision support with explanations and levels of confidence become broadly available as part of cognitive solutions in the cloud and on personal devices such as smartphones. This tutorial will cover what everyone needs to know about building, understanding, and working with cognitive systems in personal and professional lives - including the progression of cognitive systems from tools to assistants to collaborators to coaches to mediators, trusted to perform some interactions on behalf of the user. IBM transformation to a cognitive solutions and cloud platform company will also be discussed, including IBM Watson on Bluemix, as well as other industry trends. Some of the materials are posted here: http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer - but other materials will not be available until the presentation. My picture and bio are attached and at this URL: http://service-science.info/archives/2233 Bio (150 words): Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer is Director, Understanding Cognitive Systems working in IBM Research’s Chief Science Office Cognitive. He advocates for cognitive mediators for all people –especially professionals who are future-ready adaptive innovators, with T-shaped skillsets and mindsets. Previously, he lead IBM Global University Programs and IBM’s Cognitive Systems Institute.   Jim co-founded IBM’s first Service Research group, ISSIP Service Science community, and was founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations Group in Silicon Valley. He was awarded Apple Computers’Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technology title for his work on next generation learning platforms. Jim has a Yale PhD in Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence and MIT BS in Physics. His research priorities include service science, cognitive science, and wise service systems. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he is also a PICMET Fellow and a winner of the Evert Gummesson Service Research award as well as the S-D Logic award.
  2. Read the article in Ai Magazine if you can…
  3. Join the weekly calls if you can.
  4. There are three doors to get started. If you are faculty or student – enter through the university door at onthehub.com/ibm - HICSS.org is a good conference If you are developer interested in being part of the Watson Developer Cloud community – World of Watson is a good conference If you are a general developer, with broad interests go to Bluemix – IBM INTERACT is a good conference Eventually all roads lead to Bluemix – but depending on where you are, you can learn more by starting at different places. Each starting point has additional resources – when you become a pro you access nearly all of them via Bluemix
  5. Recognizes three types of things in this image – car, face, words
  6. Pretty good on some celebrity faces
  7. Watson still has things to learn – it missed the foot
  8. 4th is a cyber-physcial systems.
  9. We are talking about the Frontiers of Service here – and Roland has long predicted information and service converge in some hard to imagine way…
  10. The 50% of taxi cab drivers that are scared of driverless cars can only think about skillset. The 50% of tax cab drivers that are not scared of driveless cars are all over mindset…
  11. The key is to think of everything in term of the data/information associated with it across it complete life-cycle form cradle-to-cradle, and redo the business model to benefit provider-customer-and-other stakeholders Changing the Dominant Logic: http://blog.egonl.com/?m=200902 Rolls Royce: http://www.economist.com/node/18073351
  12. The Circular Economy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRKvDyyHmI
  13. By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
  14. Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
  15. In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
  16. The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
  17. If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
  18. Modha’s Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres…. Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZo https://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
  19. Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy). More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant. Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic! Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
  20. Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation
  21. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence
  22. Artificial Intelligence is intelligence in machines. Intelligence Augment is people with smart machines.
  23. How Does Siri work – local and Cloud http://www.zdnet.com/article/how-apples-siri-really-works/
  24. Types co-created with the help of Don Norman and Paul Maglio
  25. Where is the variety? Hardware and even software standardizing into modules and algorithms…. Data will standardize next into categories and types…. Experience is where the uniqueness is, and variety and variability, and identity.
  26. Images Sources: http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/
  27. O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
  28. Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:     (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy;         - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")         - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly         - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY         - more about the ambitions at  http://cognitive-science.info     (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system         - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions     (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions     (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000         - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power)     (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves          - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.     (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them"         - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....     http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to  us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness -  and note especially the wellness suit at the end:     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
  29. Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world – across many scales. Picture of star formation https://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php
  30. Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world. Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines – or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 L’s, they also have a 4th L – limbs – those cognitive assistants are robots. Picture of physics and the brain... http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
  31. However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds… The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology. The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science. Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in. Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
  32. Come visit IBM Research – Almaden, in San Jose, CA USA – monthly university day! For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Cognition as a Service: An Industry Perspective URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6 11:30-01:00 Yassi Moghaddam, ISSIP Thriving your business through Smart service ecosystems, 01:00-02:00 Lunch 02:00-03:20 KangYoon Lee, HanSung Univ AI Strategy for New Industrial Growth - 4th Industrial revolution and Digital Marketing - AI Technology and References - AI Platform Business and Ecosystem model - AI Business Insights 03:40-05:30 Il-Yeol Song, Drexel Univ Data Science for Artificial Intelligence (tentative) Second Talk in Korea Am I only needed on Friday Oct 14th from ? 09:30-11:10 Jim Spohrer, IBM Cognition as a Service : Industry Perspective (like a Tutorial Session, 100 Minutes) Cognition as a Service: An Industry Perspective This talk will provide an introduction to the cognitive era of computing, in which cognitive capabilities from natural language and video understanding, machine learning, and decision support with explanations and levels of confidence become broadly available as part of cognitive solutions in the cloud and on personal devices such as smartphones. This tutorial will cover what everyone needs to know about building, understanding, and working with cognitive systems in personal and professional lives - including the progression of cognitive systems from tools to assistants to collaborators to coaches to mediators, trusted to perform some interactions on behalf of the user. IBM transformation to a cognitive solutions and cloud platform company will also be discussed, including IBM Watson on Bluemix, as well as other industry trends. Some of the materials are posted here: http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer - but other materials will not be available until the presentation. My picture and bio are attached and at this URL: http://service-science.info/archives/2233 Bio (150 words): Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer is Director, Understanding Cognitive Systems working in IBM Research’s Chief Science Office Cognitive. He advocates for cognitive mediators for all people –especially professionals who are future-ready adaptive innovators, with T-shaped skillsets and mindsets. Previously, he lead IBM Global University Programs and IBM’s Cognitive Systems Institute.   Jim co-founded IBM’s first Service Research group, ISSIP Service Science community, and was founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations Group in Silicon Valley. He was awarded Apple Computers’Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technology title for his work on next generation learning platforms. Jim has a Yale PhD in Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence and MIT BS in Physics. His research priorities include service science, cognitive science, and wise service systems. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he is also a PICMET Fellow and a winner of the Evert Gummesson Service Research award as well as the S-D Logic award.
  33. Dedication to Douglas C. Engelbart Father of the Mouse Top Left: Doug (1925—2013) holding first computer mouse made of wood Top Right: Doug (1968) doing the mother of all demos Bottom Right: Doug (1970’s doing research at SRI on Augmented Intelligence –HCI + CSCW + Augmentation Theory) Bottom Left: Laughing with his wife as a young man in Oregon, at his family farm