Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (12)
Similar to Science agora 20161106 v2
Similar to Science agora 20161106 v2 (20)
More from ISSIP
More from ISSIP (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Science agora 20161106 v2
- 1. Cognition-as-a-Service (CaaS): A Service Science Perspective Jim Spohrer (IBM) Tokyo, Japan; November 6, 2016 Science Agora http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/science-agora-20161106-v2 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1
- 2. 11/6/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 2 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
- 3. Brief History of AI • 1956 – Dartmouth Conference • 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds • 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation • 1988 – Expert Systems Peak • 1990 – AI Winter • 1997 – Deep Blue • 1997 – 2011 Real-World • 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI • 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute • 2014 – Watson Business Unit & • True North Brain Chip • 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 11/6/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 3
- 4. Intelligence Building Blocks 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 4 • Augmented • Science (Brains) • Design (People) • Business (Value) • Societal (Impact) • Interdisciplinary • Artificial • Learning • Perception • Reasoning • Interaction • Knowledge
- 5. 11/6/2016 5 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better cognition-as-a-service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator
- 6. Courses • 2015 • “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” • 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy • 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 • “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” • Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 • “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” • Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day • Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 • “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” • Most people have 100 digital workers. 11/6/2016 6
- 7. Reality 2.0 Service Platform: Smart to Wise? 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 7 Service Platform CM2 P2 CM1 P1 100x 100x 100x
- 8. Thomas Friedman • “We are now standing at an ethical intersection we have never stood at before as a species,” Friedman explained as he started to wind down his talk. “At the end of World War II, one country could kill all of us. Now, one person can kill all of us.” 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 8
- 9. In Summary 11/6/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 9 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
- 10. Jim Spohrer (IBM) Seoul, South Korea; October 13, 2016 Consulting Conference http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day1-keynote-20161013-v6 11/6/2016 10 Come visit IBM Research – Almaden in San Jose, CA USA – monthly university day!
- 11. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
- 12. Moshe Vardi (Rice) 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 12
- 13. Alexander Braun (CC) 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 13
- 14. Alexander Braun (CC) 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 14
- 15. Progression: Types and Models 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 15 Models (columns) Types (rows) Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Capacity & Limits User Model/ Episodic Memory Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ tool assistant collaborator coach mediator
- 16. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 16
- 17. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 17
- 18. Value Migration: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 18
- 19. Definitions: Types of Cognitive System Entities (symbol and pattern processing systems) • Socio-Technical (Organization-based) • Businesses • Cities • Nations • Biological (Brain-based) • People • Animals • Technological (Computation-based) • Embodied (Robot, Car, Device) • Virtual (Local, Cloud) 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 19
- 21. 11/6/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 21
- 22. Today’s Talk • Tech Topics • Perspectives • Opportunities • Challenges 11/6/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 22
Editor's Notes
- For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Cognition-as-a-Service (Caas): A Service Science Perspective. Tokyo, Japan. November 6, 2016. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/science-agora-20161106-v2
- However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds… The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology. The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science. Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in. Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
- The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
- Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era: (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy; - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope") - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY - more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power) (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc. (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them" - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook.... http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
- For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Startup opportunities for cognitive systems. July 8, 2016. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/cognitive-startups-20160708-v6
- By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
- Vardi M (2016) Humans, Machines, and Work: The Future is Now. Rice University Lecture. 20161020 URLs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_u2e4Av9JE&feature=share http://www.slideshare.net/MosheVardi/humans-machines-and-work-the-future-is-now
- Braun A (2016) From Eliza to SIRI and Beyond: Promise and Challenges of Intelligent, Language-controlled Assistants (Chatbots). 20161103 URL: http://www.slideshare.net/diannepatricia/from-eliza-to-siri-and-beyond-promise-and-challenges-of-intelligent-languagecontrolled-assistantschatbots
- Braun A (2016) From Eliza to SIRI and Beyond: Promise and Challenges of Intelligent, Language-controlled Assistants (Chatbots). 20161103 URL: http://www.slideshare.net/diannepatricia/from-eliza-to-siri-and-beyond-promise-and-challenges-of-intelligent-languagecontrolled-assistantschatbots
- Where is the variety? Hardware and even software standardizing into modules and algorithms…. Data will standardize next into categories and types…. Experience is where the uniqueness is, and variety and variability, and identity.
- How Does Siri work – local and Cloud http://www.zdnet.com/article/how-apples-siri-really-works/
- 3 years ago, Watson demonstrated promise on TV show Jeopardy! Now starting to become reality Overnight success was 6 hard years in the making Trained to tap into the vast domain of knowledge and then rip through it Very first cognitive computing platform Watson has since been applied in the areas you see along the bottom of this chart