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SURFACE TEMPERATURE
RECONSTRUCTIONS
FOR T H E LAS T 2 , 00 0 Y E A R S


                       NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                                 OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Photograph: Nevada Tourism Media Relations
Tucson
Photograph: Chazz Lane




      Central Arizona Project
Photograph: Ben Amstutz
Photograph: Ben Amstutz
Photograph: Michael Koukoullis
Water transfers in the American southwest




                               Courtesy Glen MacDonald
Colorado River Compact
                  1922
Average river flow, 1906 to 1922



18 MAF
allocated to 7 basin states

              15 MAF




Average river flow, 1906 to 1922



18 MAF
allocated to Mexico

        1½ MAF
               allocated to 7 basin states

              15 MAF




Average river flow, 1906 to 1922



18 MAF
Observed discharge, Colorado River




    Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
Observed discharge, Colorado River




    Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
Average river flow, 1906 to 2005



15 MAF
Average river flow, 1906 to 2005



15 MAF
UNITED STATES   MEXICO
Arizona         Sonora
California      Baja California
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Utah
Wyoming
Low reservoir




Photograph: Glen MacDonald
T H E W E S T, WA T E R A N D T H E C O L O R A D O R I V E R
Tree-ring display at elementary school




                                    Photograph:Tom Swetnam
The history of precipitation and
runoff in the Colorado Basin as
indicated by tree-rings

Edmund Shulman
Ph.D. Thesis
Harvard University
1944
water stress

narrow ring    reduced photosynthesis



                  less cell expansion



                 reduced cell division
INDIRECT
RELATION
Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
100%


EXPLAINED VARIANCE




    St. George and Luckman
           JJA temperature




                             0%
100%


EXPLAINED VARIANCE
                                    Woodhouse et al.
                                    Annual discharge




    St. George and Luckman
           JJA temperature




                             0%
stream gauge




                                 tree-ring estimate




Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
MEGADROUGHT
         intensity at least equivalent to modern multiyear droughts

         duration longer than the several years to decade thereof




Seager et al., Journal of Climate, 2008
“   Average reconstructed annual flow
    for the period 1844–1848 was lower


                                                   ”
    than the observed flow for 1999–2004.
                          Woodhouse et al., 2006
“   The long-term perspective provided by
    tree ring reconstructions points to looming
    conflict between water demand and supply


                                                ”
    in the upper Colorado River basin.
                       Woodhouse et al., 2006
Dave Meko University of Arizona
Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
Relic tree, circa 323 BC Harmon Canyon, Utah
1,200 years of Colorado River discharge Meko et al., GRL, 2007
“   The tree-ring record shows that droughts
    lasting decades have routinely gripped


                           ”
    western North America.


           Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall
“   As western North America currently endures its
    worst drought since 1900, it is important to realize
    that this drought might be nothing compared to
    what is possible in the future if megadrought and


                                        ”
    even ho er temperatures coincide.

                Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall
Tree rings provided the central evidence that caused municipal water agencies to



“RETHINK OLD
ASSUMPTIONS”
    about worst-case scenarios for reservoir operations and re-evaluate the
          potential duration and geographic scope of severe drought.
READING FOR THURSDAY
David Meko and Connie Woodhouse (2010), Application of
streamflow reconstruction to water resources management.
M.K. Hughes et al. (eds.), Dendroclimatology, Developments in
Paleoenvironmental Research.
Please read the complete paper (eventually).
FOR NEXT CLASS
 Read sections 8.3.3 and 8.3.4
MID-TERM
  EXAM
“   They all laughed at me...
    but I'LL SHOW THEM!
    I'LL SHOW THEM ALL!!


                       ”
    BWAHAHAHAAA!
PLEASE WAIT
at least one day before asking
questions about your exam.
QUESTION 4
A common misconception is that dendrochronology
involves just counting tree rings. Describe three situations
that would lead simple ring counting to provide an
inaccurate estimate of tree age.
LAB
UPDATE
Photograph: Calvin Farris
Photograph: Lane Johnston

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