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SURFACE TEMPERATURERECONSTRUCTIONSFOR T H E LAS T 2 , 00 0 Y E A R S                       NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL      ...
Photograph: Nevada Tourism Media Relations
Tucson
Photograph: Chazz Lane      Central Arizona Project
Photograph: Ben Amstutz
Photograph: Ben Amstutz
Photograph: Michael Koukoullis
Water transfers in the American southwest                               Courtesy Glen MacDonald
Colorado River Compact                  1922
Average river flow, 1906 to 192218 MAF
allocated to 7 basin states              15 MAFAverage river flow, 1906 to 192218 MAF
allocated to Mexico        1½ MAF               allocated to 7 basin states              15 MAFAverage river flow, 1906 to ...
Observed discharge, Colorado River    Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
Observed discharge, Colorado River    Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
Average river flow, 1906 to 200515 MAF
Average river flow, 1906 to 200515 MAF
UNITED STATES   MEXICOArizona         SonoraCalifornia      Baja CaliforniaColoradoNew MexicoNevadaUtahWyoming
Low reservoirPhotograph: Glen MacDonald
T H E W E S T, WA T E R A N D T H E C O L O R A D O R I V E R
Tree-ring display at elementary school                                    Photograph:Tom Swetnam
The history of precipitation andrunoff in the Colorado Basin asindicated by tree-ringsEdmund ShulmanPh.D. ThesisHarvard Uni...
water stressnarrow ring    reduced photosynthesis                  less cell expansion                 reduced cell division
INDIRECTRELATION
Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
100%EXPLAINED VARIANCE    St. George and Luckman           JJA temperature                             0%
100%EXPLAINED VARIANCE                                    Woodhouse et al.                                    Annual disch...
stream gauge                                 tree-ring estimateSource: Woodhouse et al., 2006
Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
MEGADROUGHT         intensity at least equivalent to modern multiyear droughts         duration longer than the several ye...
“   Average reconstructed annual flow    for the period 1844–1848 was lower                                                ...
“   The long-term perspective provided by    tree ring reconstructions points to looming    conflict between water demand a...
Dave Meko University of Arizona
Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
Relic tree, circa 323 BC Harmon Canyon, Utah
1,200 years of Colorado River discharge Meko et al., GRL, 2007
“   The tree-ring record shows that droughts    lasting decades have routinely gripped                           ”    west...
“   As western North America currently endures its    worst drought since 1900, it is important to realize    that this dr...
Tree rings provided the central evidence that caused municipal water agencies to“RETHINK OLDASSUMPTIONS”    about worst-ca...
READING FOR THURSDAYDavid Meko and Connie Woodhouse (2010), Application ofstreamflow reconstruction to water resources mana...
Please read the complete paper (eventually).
FOR NEXT CLASS Read sections 8.3.3 and 8.3.4
MID-TERM  EXAM
“   They all laughed at me...    but ILL SHOW THEM!    ILL SHOW THEM ALL!!                       ”    BWAHAHAHAAA!
PLEASE WAITat least one day before askingquestions about your exam.
QUESTION 4A common misconception is that dendrochronologyinvolves just counting tree rings. Describe three situationsthat ...
LABUPDATE
Photograph: Calvin Farris
Photograph: Lane Johnston
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River
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GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River

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GEOG3839.14, The West, water and the Colorado River

  1. 1. SURFACE TEMPERATURERECONSTRUCTIONSFOR T H E LAS T 2 , 00 0 Y E A R S NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
  2. 2. Photograph: Nevada Tourism Media Relations
  3. 3. Tucson
  4. 4. Photograph: Chazz Lane Central Arizona Project
  5. 5. Photograph: Ben Amstutz
  6. 6. Photograph: Ben Amstutz
  7. 7. Photograph: Michael Koukoullis
  8. 8. Water transfers in the American southwest Courtesy Glen MacDonald
  9. 9. Colorado River Compact 1922
  10. 10. Average river flow, 1906 to 192218 MAF
  11. 11. allocated to 7 basin states 15 MAFAverage river flow, 1906 to 192218 MAF
  12. 12. allocated to Mexico 1½ MAF allocated to 7 basin states 15 MAFAverage river flow, 1906 to 192218 MAF
  13. 13. Observed discharge, Colorado River Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
  14. 14. Observed discharge, Colorado River Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
  15. 15. Average river flow, 1906 to 200515 MAF
  16. 16. Average river flow, 1906 to 200515 MAF
  17. 17. UNITED STATES MEXICOArizona SonoraCalifornia Baja CaliforniaColoradoNew MexicoNevadaUtahWyoming
  18. 18. Low reservoirPhotograph: Glen MacDonald
  19. 19. T H E W E S T, WA T E R A N D T H E C O L O R A D O R I V E R
  20. 20. Tree-ring display at elementary school Photograph:Tom Swetnam
  21. 21. The history of precipitation andrunoff in the Colorado Basin asindicated by tree-ringsEdmund ShulmanPh.D. ThesisHarvard University1944
  22. 22. water stressnarrow ring reduced photosynthesis less cell expansion reduced cell division
  23. 23. INDIRECTRELATION
  24. 24. Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
  25. 25. 100%EXPLAINED VARIANCE St. George and Luckman JJA temperature 0%
  26. 26. 100%EXPLAINED VARIANCE Woodhouse et al. Annual discharge St. George and Luckman JJA temperature 0%
  27. 27. stream gauge tree-ring estimateSource: Woodhouse et al., 2006
  28. 28. Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
  29. 29. MEGADROUGHT intensity at least equivalent to modern multiyear droughts duration longer than the several years to decade thereofSeager et al., Journal of Climate, 2008
  30. 30. “ Average reconstructed annual flow for the period 1844–1848 was lower ” than the observed flow for 1999–2004. Woodhouse et al., 2006
  31. 31. “ The long-term perspective provided by tree ring reconstructions points to looming conflict between water demand and supply ” in the upper Colorado River basin. Woodhouse et al., 2006
  32. 32. Dave Meko University of Arizona
  33. 33. Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
  34. 34. Relic tree, circa 323 BC Harmon Canyon, Utah
  35. 35. 1,200 years of Colorado River discharge Meko et al., GRL, 2007
  36. 36. “ The tree-ring record shows that droughts lasting decades have routinely gripped ” western North America. Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall
  37. 37. “ As western North America currently endures its worst drought since 1900, it is important to realize that this drought might be nothing compared to what is possible in the future if megadrought and ” even ho er temperatures coincide. Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall
  38. 38. Tree rings provided the central evidence that caused municipal water agencies to“RETHINK OLDASSUMPTIONS” about worst-case scenarios for reservoir operations and re-evaluate the potential duration and geographic scope of severe drought.
  39. 39. READING FOR THURSDAYDavid Meko and Connie Woodhouse (2010), Application ofstreamflow reconstruction to water resources management.M.K. Hughes et al. (eds.), Dendroclimatology, Developments inPaleoenvironmental Research.
  40. 40. Please read the complete paper (eventually).
  41. 41. FOR NEXT CLASS Read sections 8.3.3 and 8.3.4
  42. 42. MID-TERM EXAM
  43. 43. “ They all laughed at me... but ILL SHOW THEM! ILL SHOW THEM ALL!! ” BWAHAHAHAAA!
  44. 44. PLEASE WAITat least one day before askingquestions about your exam.
  45. 45. QUESTION 4A common misconception is that dendrochronologyinvolves just counting tree rings. Describe three situationsthat would lead simple ring counting to provide aninaccurate estimate of tree age.
  46. 46. LABUPDATE
  47. 47. Photograph: Calvin Farris
  48. 48. Photograph: Lane Johnston

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