agile, bmnt, business model, corporate innovation, customer development,dod,nsa, diux, h4d, hacking for defense, lean, lean launchpad, lean startup, stanford, steve blank

1. Team
Narrative
Mind

2. Team Info
The Narrative Mind team contains experts in software engineering, social media design, and
web-based information operations (IO). We seek to develop tools that will optimize discovery
and investigation of communication trends on social media.
Weekly Total: 10 interviews
Users: 21
Experts: 50
Buyers: 5
Cumulative Total: 76 interviews

3. Hypotheses ❏ ARCYBER will find desired capabilities in existing software
❏ Hashtag co-occurrences may indicate larger narrative trends, but are not likely to be
sufficient in isolation
Experiments ❏ Demo’s of several commercial tools to ARCYBER sponsors
❏ Analysis of hashtag data, each co-occurrence coded into narrative theme bucket
Results
❏ Commercial tools viewed did not meet ARCYBER’s needs, too narrow
❏ Analysis of hashtag data by itself does not present a holistic picture of narrative trends (text
limits; sample size)
Actions 1. Set up follow-on demo to show ARCYBER one remaining commercial tool with capabilities
that seem to fit their social media network analysis needs
2. Further analysis of larger hashtag datasets acquired from researchers, run tests using
hashtag co-occurrence for primitive categorizing abilities
Customer Discovery

4. Bg. General
(decision maker)
❏ Quickly understand key thematic points of group’s use of social media
put out by intelligence briefs.
MAJ/LTC/COL
(operational planer)
❏ Determine what types themes are rising in popularity and better identify
type of response
Analysts/Operators
(actionable insights)
❏ New adversary IO movements can be understood and tracked with less
direct cooperation of cultural/language experts.
ARCYBER -- Mission Achievement
ARCYBER/COCOMS
Big Picture Success Analogy:
“Most COCOMs and IO shops spend their whole day looking for a needle in a haystack: a user, a
post, an IP address. For narrative-level awareness, we need a strategy that helps us divide the
haystack into a bunch of smaller haystacks that don’t all look like same damn pile of hay.”

5. Private sector -- Mission Achievement
Brands
(CMO, Marketing, SM Analysts)
❏ Analysts: Provide proactive information that captures emerging stories
in previously targeted consumer groups, instead of just monitoring
marketing plan successes.
❏ Marketing Managers: Get a higher-level overview of grassroots-level
content and leverage trending topics.
Political Campaigns
(Campaign Managers, Community
Organizers, SM Analysts)
❏ Social Media campaign managers: Determine what types themes are
rising in popularity and better identify type of response
Hedge Funds
(Executives, Analysts)
❏ Hedge fund analysts: Correlate narrative growth of portfolio companies
with changing fluctuations in valuation/revenues, influence narratives
around companies (long/short)
Private sector

6. All the Hypotheses
Global
Tweet-level
Awareness Response
IO Org Chart
No baseline for monitoring/aggregating
use of tech; cyber targeting
Automatic Narrative Detection
Language/culture experts aren’t able
to work at scale
Important Event Predictor
Preempt events
Counter-Narrative Generator
DoD/Gvt. social media
presence is weak
Site Scraper
Need more cached information
access
Expedited Content Categorization
Scale of social media makes manual efforts
painful
Bot Detector
Can’t determine actual scale of
following and support.
Virality Predictor
Understand which narratives are the most salient
Persistent ID-Alias tracker
Account bans and multiple aliases across
different networks make IDs hard to track
Annotate Speakers in Videos
Analysts don’t track which speeches
and audio are used in videos.

7. Company F
Persistent ID-Alias tracker
All the Hypotheses
Global
Tweet-level
Awareness Response
IO Org Chart
No baseline for monitoring/aggregating
adversary use of tech; cyber targeting
Automatic Narrative Detection
Language/culture experts aren’t able
to work at scale
Company C
Virality Predictor
Counter-Narrative Generator
DoD/Gvt. social media
presence is weak
Company E
Filesharing Site Scraper
Company D
Expedited Content Categorization
Company B
Adversary Bot Detector
Company A
Important Event Predictor

8. All the Opportunities
Global
Tweet-level
Awareness Response
Adversary IO Org Chart
No baseline for monitoring/aggregating
adversary use of tech; cyber targeting
Automated Narrative Detection
Language/culture experts aren’t able
to work at scale
Open
Opportunities

9. The Visualization Problem
Source: hiveplot.net

10. Hashtag Co-occurrence MVP Testing
Dataset Features:
● 600k Unique Tweets
● Spanning October 2015 to May 2016
● 200k Unique Hashtag Combinations
Procedure:
1. Merged records into frequency table of hashtag co-
occurrences.
2. Manually coded 1300 most frequent hashtag sets based on
themes.
3. Visualized volume of these hashtag sets over time as
related to big-picture “narrative”.
Key Findings:
● Process is reasonably scalable.
● Could be implemented quickly by
ARCYBER to supplement
workflow.
● Deciding on narrative categories is
difficult.
● Need to further condition input
tweets to specific groups.
● How does hashtagged traffic
compare to total traffic?

11. Customer Discovery - Get/Keep/Grow Diagram (ARCYBER)
Acquire Activate Keep Up-sell Next-sell Cross-sell Referral
Activity &
People
-SIG (Strategic Initiatives
Group), C5 consortium,
ACT (Advanced Concepts
and Technology
directorate)
-LTC, Col seeking
better visibility/reports
on use of social
media and power to
deploy
-Social media analysts
(CW3’s--information
aggregators)
-LTC, Col receiving
reports synthesized by
CW3’s need advanced,
additional features for in-
depth views/analysis
?? -Expanding offering with
additional
analysis/visualization
tools and integrations
-Expanding user base
across CYBER ops/wings
beyond ARCYBER
Metrics
-inbound interest from
across ARCYBER and IC
# people who say “we
want this”
-time spent with tool -# additional features
bought per user
?? # other services being
used per user
# payers using tool

12. Customer Discovery - Get/Keep/Grow Diagram (Politics)
Acquire Activate Keep Up-sell Next-sell Cross-sell Referral
Activity &
People
-political campaigns -work with campaign
social media
managers
-provide high-level
strategic understanding
of’ content and own
narrative success
-sell advanced, additional
features for in-depth
views/analysis
?? -Expanding offering with
additional
analysis/visualization
tools and integrations
-get other political allies
on platform, get whole
parties (DNC, RNC)
Metrics
-inbound interest from
campaigns
# people who say “we
want this”
-time spent with tool -# additional features
bought per user
?? # other services being
used per user
# payers using tool

13. Acquire Activate Keep Up-sell Next-sell Cross-sell Referral
Activity &
People
-national consumer brands -work with social
media/content
managers
-provide high-level
strategic understanding of
competitors’ content and
own narrative success
-sell advanced, additional
features for in-depth
views/analysis
?? -Expanding offering with
additional
analysis/visualization
tools and integrations
-get other
parent/subsidiary brands
on platform
Metrics
-# earned demand leads to
# paid demand leads
# people who say “we
want this”
-time spent with tool -# additional features
bought per user
?? # other services being
used per user
# payers using tool
Customer Discovery - Get/Keep/Grow Diagram (Brands)

14. Customer Discovery - Get/Keep/Grow Diagram (Hedge funds)
Acquire Activate Keep Up-sell Next-sell Cross-sell Referral
Activity &
People
-Hedge fund managers and
analysts (small-cap to
large-cap)
-provide turnkey
solution for analytics
-provide high-level
strategic understanding of
companies’ content and
narrative success or failure
-sell advanced, additional
features for in-depth
views/analysis
?? -Expanding offering with
additional
analysis/visualization
tools and integrations with
news aggregators
-get other hedge funds,
but more difficult because
of zero-sum outlook
Metrics
-inbound interest from
hedge funds
# people who say “we
want this”
-$’s generated -# additional features
bought per user
?? # other services being
used per user
# payers using tool

15. Mission Model Canvas
- Track how groups
propagate narratives with
co-occurring hashtags.
- Gnip/Twitter/Facebook
- CrowdFlower,
Samasource, or
Mechanical Turk
- Pre-existing social
media service and micro-
labor aggregators
- Third-party access
platforms for social
media,
-Data visualization-
Content analysis
platforms
Primary
ARCYBER
-Bg. General (decision
maker)
-MAJ/LTC/COL
(operational plan)
-Analysts/Operators
(actionable insights)
COCOMs
-General (decision
maker)
-MAJ/LTC/COL
-Analyst/Operator
Secondary
Political Campaigns
-Campaign managers
-Supporters
Consumer Brands
-CMO
-Public Relations Team
OTA process
Sell to political
campaign
managers
Sell to PR firms
- Optimize workflow for
social media analysts.
-Deliver insights to
commanders about
online environment.
-Insights into responses
to broadcasting
narratives
-Detect narratives
emerging in real time
-Enable faster problem awareness to problem response times for
decision-makers across organizations
- MechanicalTurk or crowdsourcing labor (microtasks)
- UI Development/Testing with ARCYBER analysts.
- Software Development
- Research aggregation? (e.g. Import and reformat existing
knowledge about extremist organizational structure)
- Access to Twitter
firehose or API
- Local language
speaking crowdsourcing
staff.
- Accurate testing for
intercoder reliability
- ARCYBER: Bg. General,
LTC, Strategic Initiatives
Group, OTA, Purchasing PMs,
End-User operator)
-COCOMs: OTA, Operators,
Purchasing PMs
-Political Campaign:
Opposition research team, ???
-Private Sector: CMO, ???
Beneficiaries
Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs
Buy-In/Support
Deployment
Value
Proposition
Key Activities
Key Resources
Key Partners

16. Value Proposition Canvas - ARCYBER
Products
& Services
Web/Desktop
Application Provide high-level
overview of groups,
update research
Customer
Jobs
- New mission priorities.
- Little familiarity with overall
environment.
- No repository for high-level
learnings
Gains
Pains
Gain
Creators
Pain
Relievers
- New opportunities
-Illustrates evolution of info
dissemination networks
- Provides insight for
mapping “online terrain”
Visualize information about
how organizations are
using social media
ARCYBER - Operator/Analyst (Actionable Insights)

17. Value Proposition Canvas - ARCYBER
Products
& Services
Web/Desktop
Application
Aggregate insights
from analysts,
compile into plan
passed to decision
maker
- New mission priorities.
- Proliferating/viral social
media platforms
- Urgency of issues ability to
prioritize
Customer
Jobs
Gains
Pains
Gain
Creators
Pain
Relievers
-Faster turnaround time with
better data gained from
information awareness software
and technology
ARCYBER - MAJ/LTC/COL (Operational Plans)
-Better data in informing
operational plans provided
to decision makers
-Reducing uncertainty in
operational planning

18. Value Proposition Canvas - ARCYBER
Products
& Services
Web/Desktop
Application
Act on reports and
plans generated
about various cyber
threats across globe
- Little understanding of
ground-level nuances
- Little understanding of
proliferating platforms
Customer
Jobs
Gains
Pains
Gain
Creators
Pain
Relievers
- Organizational chart of
technology broken down by
functional purpose
- Timeline-based viewer
-Reduce uncertainty of
decision making
-Add methodological rigor
to ARCYBER’s
offensive/defensive
operations
ARCYBER - Brigadier General (Decision Maker)

19. Value Proposition Canvas - COCOM
Products
& Services
Web/Desktop
Application
Target audience
analysis, finding
opportunities to
optimize influence
operations
Customer
Jobs
-Loss of visibility on key
communicators (when
accounts shut down/opened)
- No repository for high-level
learnings
Gains
Pains
Gain
Creators
Pain
Relievers
-Auto-populated list & real-time
visualization of key accounts,
dissemination networks
-Allows more accurate
-Illustrates evolution of info
dissemination networks
- Provides insight for mapping
“online terrain”
Closure of visibility gap on
key accounts
COCOM - Operator/Analyst (Actionable Insights)

20. Value Proposition Canvas - COCOM
Products
& Services
Web/Desktop
Application
-Long term
operational planning
- Measuring
effectiveness
Customer
Jobs
- Unclear picture of how
some networks evolve,
adapt over time
Gains
Pains
Gain
Creators
Pain
Relievers
- Organizational chart of
technology broken down by
functional purpose
- Visualization of key accounts,
dissemination networks over
time
-Illustrates evolution of info
dissemination networks
- Provides insight for
measuring operations,
mapping “online terrain”
Greater awareness of
network evolution improves
planning, indicators of
operational effectiveness
COCOM - Maj/LTC/Col. (O4-O6) (Operational Plans)

21. Value Proposition Canvas - COCOM
Products
& Services
Web/Desktop
Application
- Judge potential
effect and risk of
operations
- Approve/reject
plans
Customer
Jobs
- Less familiarity with
internet as an operational
environment
- Needs high level summary
of how users use technology
Gains
Pains
Gain
Creators
Pain
Relievers
- Organizational chart of
technology broken down by
functional purpose
- Timeline-based viewer
-Illustrates evolution of info
dissemination networks
- Provides insight for
mapping “online terrain”
Visualize high-level
information about how
regional users use
technology.
COCOM - Brigadier General (O7) (Decision Maker)

22. Value Proposition Canvas - Political Campaign
Products
& Services
Web/Desktop
Application
-Identify opposition
narratives on SM
channels
-Craft responses to
respond w/short
turnaround
Customer
Jobs
-Limited lead time in
anticipating changes from
opposition campaigns
-New stories/themes can
derail campaign momentum
without a targeted response
Gains
Pains
Gain
Creators
Pain
Relievers
-Faster response time to
opposition’s campaigns
-Maintain the initiative in media
environment by rapidly
responding to threats
-Early detection of
emerging opposition
narratives on SM
-Insight into evolving
environment
Counter opposition
themes quickly, identify
newly spreading
rumors that could
undermine campaign.
Political Campaigns - Opposition Analysis/Campaign Director

23. Value Proposition Canvas - Consumer Product Company
Products
& Services
Web/Desktop
Application
-Monitor brand
integrity and
customer themes
-Identify and address
emerging problems
Customer
Jobs
-Identify themes about
corporate brand, pinpoint
problem areas early
-Avoid negative narratives
from becoming costly PR or
marketing problems
Gains
Pains
Gain
Creators
Pain
Relievers
-List of customer narratives
about brand that are being
posted online
-Proactive response to
emerging brand issues, better
customer satisfaction
-Early warning about
negative themes
-Identify problem areas,
protect corporate brand
from costly problems
-Protect brand integrity,
create greater
shareholder value by
addressing customer
concerns
Consumer Product Company - CMO/Marketing Organization