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Delivering to the Energy Marketplace - Texas Harvests Wind and Solar
Ron Seidel, director of the Principal Solar Institute, has extensive experience in energy consulting, particularly in the ERCOT market, and emphasizes the growing demand for electricity in Texas. The current energy landscape features a significant wind capacity of nearly 12,000 MW, but under 200 MW of solar capacity, highlighting a major opportunity for solar growth. With supportive transmission infrastructure and declining solar costs, ERCOT can effectively integrate renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and natural gas.
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Delivering to the Energy Marketplace - Texas Harvests Wind and Solar
- 1. Principal Solar Institute RonSeidel Director, Principal Solar Ron Seidel is principal of RBS Energy Consulting, working with private equity, investment banks, and government on electric energy issues primarily in the ERCOT market. Previously, he was president of Texas Independent Energy, senior vice president of Energy Supply at City Public Service of San Antonio, and an executive at TXU where he was senior vice president of Fossil Generation and Mining, president of TXU Energy Trading, and operations manager at the Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant. Delivering to the Energy Marketplace - Texas Harvests Wind and Solar
- 2. ERCOT Facts &Figures 200,000 Square Miles >43,000 miles of High Voltage Transmission >74,000 MW Peak Capacity ~12,000 MW of wind capacity <200 MW utility scale solar capacity 69,783 MW Peak Load (August 10, 2015) – Increase of 3,356 MW over 2014 Peak Load (5.1%) 13.75% Target Reserve Margin Source: ERCOT
- 3. Texas Ties toMexico and the Eastern Interconnection Source: RBS Energy Consulting
- 4. Wind 13% Hydro, biomass, other 1% Nuclear 7% Coal 23% Natural Gas 56% Installed Capacity 2011 Wind 14% Hydro, biomass, other 1% Nuclear 6% Coal 24% NaturalGas 55% Installed Capacity 2014 69,704 Megawatts 73,910 Megawatts ERCOT Capacity 2011 and 2014 Source: ERCOT
- 5. Wind 8% Hydro, biomass, other 1% Nuclear 12% Coal 39% Natural Gas 40% Energy Produced 2011 Wind 10% Hydro, biomass, other 1% Nuclear 12% Coal 36% NaturalGas 41% Energy Produced 2014 335,000 Gigawatt-hours 340,000 Gigawatt-hours ERCOT Energy 2011 and 2014 Source: ERCOT
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- 7. ERCOT Load Growth ERCOTAverage Load Growth 2016 – 2025 is 1.3% or about 1,000 MW per year Equivalent to –One nuclear plant each year –Two coal plants each year –Two combined cycle gas plants each year Sources: ERCOT , RBS Energy Consulting
- 8. ERCOT Reserve Margins December2012 Report 13.2 10.9 10.5 8.5 8.4 7.1 5.0 4.1 3.6 2.8 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Target =13.75% % Source: ERCOT
- 9. ERCOT Reserve Margins May2015 Report 17.0 18.5 21.4 18.7 17.1 16.1 14.6 13.2 11.8 10.4 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Target =13.75% % Source: ERCOT
- 10. Potential Solar Capacity 2022 LongTerm Assessment for the ERCOT Region, December 2012
- 11. 2029 ERCOT Generation 51% 25% 9% 9% 6% % NaturalGas Coal Wind Nuclear Solar Source: 2014 Long-Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region, December 2014
- 12. Percent Energy bySource 41 46 51 49 51 51 36 31 27 28 26 25 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 12 11 11 10 9 2 4 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 2014 2018 2021 2024 2027 2029 Solar Wind Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Source: 2014 Long-Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region, December 2014
- 13. Solar PV CostHistory Source: NREL / DOE
- 14. Capital Cost byGeneration Technology $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 Nuclear Coal Solar PV Wind Natural Gas CC Capital Cost ($/kW) Nuclear Coal Solar PV Wind Natural Gas CC
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- 17. U.S. Solar PVCapacity 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MegawattsDC
- 18. Achievable Solar PVEnergy in Texas Reference: ERCOT Peak Load ~70 GW Urban PV = 154 GW (13% of U.S. Total) Rural PV = 20,000 GW (14% of U.S. Total) Achieving just 1% of this capability would produce over 200 GW or almost three times the current ERCOT maximum load. Sources: NREL, RBS Energy Consulting
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- 20. CREZ Program A CREZis a geographic area with optimal conditions for the economic development of wind power generation facilities Enabled by Senate Bill 20, passed in 2005 Designed to move wind electricity from West Texas to the more heavily populated areas Allow transmittal of about 18,500 MW wind
- 21. CREZ Metrics 2008 $4.97 Billion 2963miles 109 Projects 2015 $6.9 Billion +39% 3589 miles +21% 169 Projects +55% Source: ERCOT
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- 23. CREZ in PrimeSolar Area Source: ERCOT
- 24. ERCOT Transmission +CREZ Lines Source: ERCOT
- 25. Impact of Solargeneration on the 2029 summer hourly load 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Load Solar Net Load Source: ERCOT 2014 Long Term System Assessment Report
- 26. Solar Synergy withLoad 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Generation(MW) SystemLoad(MW) Hour System Load Wind Generation Solar Generation ERCOT Load Wind Profile Solar Profile Source: RBS Energy Consulting
- 27. Solar Synergy withLoad 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 System Load Solar Wind Solar + Wind MW Source: RBS Energy Consulting MW
- 28. Solar, Wind andNatural Gas
- 29. Summary Demand forelectricity in Texas is growing ERCOT has a large renewable portfolio – Currently almost 12,000 MW of wind is in operation – Less than 200 MW of utility scale solar PV operating Texas has an enormous solar PV opportunity CREZ transmission supports wind and solar Solar PV has a higher capacity value than wind and is synergistic with load Solar costs are nearing grid parity and and continue to fall ERCOT provides a unique opportunity to combine solar , wind and natural gas generation
- 30. Questions and Discussion RonSeidel Director, Principal Solar Please enter your questions into the Chat window
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