This document summarizes lessons from the evolution of personal computing technology: - Minicomputer makers failed to transition to the new desktop PC market in the 1980s, allowing new entrants like Apple to succeed. - In the late 1980s, PCs began meeting the needs of minicomputer users, severely damaging minicomputer makers. - IBM entered the PC market successfully by creating an autonomous division in Florida far from headquarters. - Future interactions with technology will increasingly involve gesture, audio, touch and new form factors beyond the desktop metaphor and mouse/keyboard paradigm.

1. LECTURE L14
INTERACTING WITH TECHNOLOGY

2. Lessons
▪ Shift from hardware to software
▪ None
of
the
minicomputer
makers
became
a
significant
factor
in
the
desktop
personal
computer
market
▪ The
PC
was
disruptive
technology
▪ The
minicomputer
users
were
not
buying
PCs
–
yet
▪ This
created
a
new
set
of
entrants:
Apple,
Tandy,
Commodore,
and
IBM

3. Lessons
▪ In
the
late
1980s
the
performance
of
PCs
met
the
needs
of
minicomputer
users
▪ This
severely
wounded
minicomputer
makers
–
many
of
them
failed
▪ At
same
time
IBM
succeeded
in
entering
the
PC
market
–
how?
▪ It
created
an
autonomous
organization
in
Florida
–
far
away
from
it’s
New
York
headquarters
▪ They
created
the
PC
market
▪ Then
headquarters
took
control
and
lost
control
to
the
Clones

4. Lessons
▪ Xerox management did not enter the
computer market
▪ PARC members tried to show management –
but they “just didn’t get it”
▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business –
their customers were not asking for computer
systems
▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their
resources, processes and values
– RPV theory

5. Lessons
▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of
computers
▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer –
but did not pursue it
▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and
others did not get rich of computers and
software
▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob
Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make
much money

6. Lessons
▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and
started Microsoft
▪ Took the opportunity with MITS
▪ Focused on software
▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but
Microsoft bought similar OS and succeeded
▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh
▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win
▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it

7. Lessons
▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of
computers and then GUIs
▪ GUI were slow to appear
▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users
▪ Stretched the hardware at the time
▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers
▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance
▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some
niche market in Desktop Publishing and schools

8. Lessons
▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer
▪ First mass market of Operating Systems
– The Internet helped
▪ Today we have three major PC Operating
Systems
– Linux (Unix based)
– MacOS (Unix based)
– Windows
▪ Biggest OS today are iOS and Android

9. LECTURE L14
INTERACTING WITH TECHNOLOGY

10. What is the future of Personal Computers?

13. PC Evolution
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Hardware
era
PC,
Mac
Software
OS
era
Windows,
Office,
MacOS
Internet
Hardware
Connects
IBM
Microsoft
Apple
2010
Software
web
era
Web
2.0,
Social
2015
Internet
of
things
2020
Apple
Google
Smartphone
Wearable
Startups
Facebook
Amazon

14. 20 petaflops, or a quadrillion
calculations per second

15. Miniature Computers
Small devices that have computer power
Wireless capabilities
Dedicated devices
Enough computer power for limited functionality
Examples
RFID
UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles
Internet of things
Siftables

16. Ted video
David Merrill demos Stiftables

18. The Future of the PC
How long will the Hard Disk Drive last?
Solid state memory is getting bigger
Terabit Flash Memory
Computer architecture will change
More and more devices are
using Flash memory
Driving prices down

19. Tablets

20. Wearables, flyables, drivables, scannables…

21. The Network is the Computer
The Internet cloud
More programs and data is stored on network
servers
The Personal Computer becomes one of the form
factors to access the network
Examples
Amazon API
Google Apps
Facework Platform API

22. Tom Watson was wrong – there
is not room for five computers.
It’s only one

23. What about Moore’s Law?
Shift to multicore started in
2005 – new dimension

24. Move to cloud-core
What about Moore’s Law?
Amazon has over 2.24 million machines in
some 87 data centers

25. $1,279-per-hour, 30,000-core
cluster built on Amazon EC2 cloud
What about Moore’s Law?

26. 26
Evolution of Computers

27. Mainframes Mini
Computers PC
Time-sharing
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

28. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mainframes Mini
Computers PC
Clients
Time-sharing
Servers
Laptops
Serverr
rooms
Smartphones
Tablets
Music
players
Consumer Products
Data
centers
Mobile
phones
Convergence
Divergence
DecentralisationCentralisation
Mobility
eReaders
Wearables
IoT
New Business Models

29. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mainframes Mini
Computers PC
Clients
Time-sharing
Servers
Laptops
Serverr
rooms
Smartphones
Tablets
Music
players
Consumer Products
Data
centers
Mobile
phones
Convergence
Divergence
DecentralisationCentralisation
Mobility
eReaders
Wearables
IoT
New Business Models
What next?

30. Consumer Devices
The computer and the
Internet
disappear

31. Future of PC
Cloud Computing and home Serves
Everything will be connected: computer, TV, Phone, etc.
Simpler specialised operating systems
Cloud computing
Wireless
Ubiquitous network access
Computers will be smaller and integrated into things
New input methods
Better interfaces
Big Brian, Small Brain
Better friction of devices

32. Future of the Desktop Metaphor

33. Xerox Early GUIs
Goal: Emulate the
office environment
in a computer

34. Macintosh 1984
First commercial
GUI system

35. Windows 3.0
Business software
mirgrates to GUIs

36. Operating Systems Today
Ubuntu
Mac
OS
X
Windows
More choices, less important
Android

37. 37
Is the desktop metaphor dead?

38. 38

39. 39
Forgot to save
your file?

42. What do people do with computes -
desktop, laptop, tablet, smartphone - today?
Communication - talk, messages
Reading
Take/View Photos
Watch Movies
Shopping
Browse the Internet
Read news
Write documents, blogs
Financial transactions
Learning

43. Microsoft Bill Buxton on
Natural User Interfaces
43

45. “My
specialty
is
people.”
–
Bill
Buxton
45

46. The Next Device

47. IBM 5150 - 34 years ago

48. Macintosh - 31 years ago

49. 49
Dell Desktop PC - Today

50. Lenovo Carbon X1 Laptop - Today

51. 51
Smartphone Netbooks Laptop Desktop
The world in 2010
Computers

52. 52
iPad 2010 - “The iPad Effect”

53. The iPad Effect
Multi-touch input
Software Platform – apps
Real OS
The computer just became
a consumer device
The iPhone Effect

54. The iPad Effect
Tablets are disrupting the netbook/laptop/PC market
Replacing eReaders
Killing papers and magazines - or saving them?
Change in life style
Is this new market disruption also?
What happens when you can access the internet with a $100 device?

55. Smartphone Netbooks Laptop DesktopTablet
The world in 2015

56. SOFTWARE
WORK
FOCUS
APPS
VIEW/BROWSE
ENTERTAIN
APPS
CHECK
NOW!
VIDEO
WATCHING
RELAXED
DIGITAL WORLD

57. From Mary Meeker’s slide deck.

58. What’s the next device?

60. Device on your arm

62. Fitness trackers

64. 64
Glasses

67. Virtual Reality Headset

69. Bluedouche
If it look ugly
on this guy,
it is ugly on you

70. How can Augmented Reality improve
our live and work?70

72. Augmented Reality

77. 77
Gesture-control system
Leap Motion

79. 79
Gesture Control Armband
Myo

81. 81
Brian waves as input

85. Voice Recognition

87. Family robots

88. 66
Desktop, laptops Mobile, tablets, smartphones
BEFORE Now

89. 67
Desktop metaphor, mouse
keyboard
Gesture, audio, touch
BEFORE Now

90. INTERACTING WITH TECHNOLOGY
NEXT:
THE BROADCAST CENTURY