New Technology Lecture L13 The Power of Software

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After the computing industry got started, a new problem quickly emerged. How do you operate this machines and how to you program them. The development of operating systems was relatively slow compared to the advances in hardware. First system were primitive but slowly got better as demand for computing power increased. The ideas of the Graphical User Interfaces or GUI (Gooey) go back to Doug Engelbarts Demo of the Century. However, this did not have much impact on the computer industry. One company though, Xerox, a photocopy company explored these ideas with Palo Alto Park. Steve Jobs of Apple and Bill Gates of Microsoft took notice and Apple introduced first Apple Lisa and the Macintosh.

In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of software, and see how our business theories apply.

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New Technology Lecture L13 The Power of Software

  1. 1. Lecture L13 THE POWER OF SOFTWARE
  2. 2. The Software Crisis
  3. 3. Software As computers became more powerful and more common, a new problem surfaced: software ! Development of computers was a hardware problem ! Software or programs did not get the same attention ! Operating systems were primitive and programming 
 was done at a very low level
  4. 4. The Software Crisis Software Engineering was not a established field ! Became known as The Software Crisis “[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!” -Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer Source:  Software_crisis
  5. 5. Operating Systems IBM developed OS/360 for System 360 ! DEC developed VMS for VAX ! Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix ! System V, BSD, Solaris ! Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix licence
  6. 6. Programming Languages ! FORTRAN! Mathematical Formula Translation System Released in 1957 ! Higher level language that became 
 breakthrough in writing software ! Created by John Backus of IBM ! Came on 2.000 punched cards Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol
  7. 7. May 25, 1961 Status:! ! Mainframe era, mini computer early days ! Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented ! Programming languages new
  8. 8. “The  space  program  badly  needed  the  things  the   integrated  circuit  could  provide.”   -­‐  Jack  St.  Clair  Kilby
  9. 9. Semiconductor Industry is Born Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company ! Initial focus was on memory chips ! There was still enormous potential market for calculations ! The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realised but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organisations
  10. 10. The Microprocessor Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971 ! 8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979 ! The beginning of the PC
  11. 11. The Microprocessor Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business ! No market existed No demand at the time ! Intel created 4004 for another company They would not market chips, but built them when ordered
  12. 12. The Calculator
  13. 13. The Calculator Advances in technology introduced the 
 desktop calculator ! The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller ! Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s ! Replaced the slide rule after 374 years
  14. 14. Calculator Wars Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more ! In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972 ! Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974 ! Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues
  15. 15. Think about this! All mini-computer companies had
 what it would take to go into small
 scale products – they even had
 people proposing the idea, but they
 did not!
  16. 16. The Personal Computer
  17. 17. The Personal Computer MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080 ! Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches ! Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts
  18. 18. Microsoft is Born Bill Gates and Paul Allen! ! Wrote a BASIC interpreter
 for the Altair ! Founded a company they called
 Micro-Soft
  19. 19. Enter Apple Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak! ! Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto 
 Homebrew Computer Club in 1976 ! Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth” ! Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market
  20. 20. “The  Personal  Computer  will  fall  flat  on  its  face  in   business.”   -­‐  Ken  Olsen
  21. 21. Computer Companies Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs ! DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl ! Support for machines like this was considered impossible ! Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists
  22. 22. Think About This! The Liquid Network
  23. 23. The Software Industry First applications were non-serious ! Soon business applications started to emerge ! VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer sales was due to this program ! Other business apps appeared: Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc. ! Disruptive technology
  24. 24. Killer Apps Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet The spreadsheet created a new market ! People bought the hardware to run the software
  25. 25. Q4 IBM successfully entered the PC market – according to RPV theory this would be difficult. How did they do this?
  26. 26. IBM PC IBM decided to enter the PC revolution ! The company was loosing market share, competition was growing ! Project “Chess”! Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn” ! Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL ! Looked for parts outside of the company
  27. 27. The War of the OS IBM needed an Operating System ! Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary Kildall ! Microsoft was providing programming languages
 and suggested that IBM make a deal with DR
  28. 28. The Birth of the Microsoft DOS Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary
  29. 29. The War of the OS IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from another company ! Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market
  30. 30. PC-DOS Small system Came on a floppy
  31. 31. IBM PC The IBM PC was introduced 12. 
 August 1981 in New York ! 4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM, 
 DOS 1.0 for $1.565
  32. 32. Enter the Clones
  33. 33. Enter the Clones IBM released all the specification of the machine Open system ! This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines Compac was one of them
  34. 34. Enter the Clones IBM controlled the market for a few years ! They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted 
 performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from 
 cannibalising higher-priced models ! The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines ! The PC market took off ! IBM started to loose market share
  35. 35. PC Compatible Machines Ruled Early 80s IBM PC became the standard hardware ! MS-DOS became the industry standard OS ! Command Line Interface – CLI Text User Interfaces – TUI
  36. 36. Key Trend Focus in on hardware, the
 software is good-enough
  37. 37. Adoption Life Cycle Still in the early stages – 
 technology is the focus
  38. 38. “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” - Alan Key The Demo in 1968
  39. 39. The Demo 1968
  40. 40. The Demo in 1968 Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation 
 Research Centre in Melno Park ! Demonstrated the future of computing
  41. 41. Features A pointing device – the Mouse 
 Hypertext, graphical user interface
 Dynamic file linking ! Shared-screen collaboration involving 
 two persons at different sites 
 communicating over a network with 
 audio and video interface
  42. 42. Xerox Parc
  43. 43. Xerox Parc Xerox created a lab in 1970 ! Palo Alto Research Park – PARC ! PARC was a place for visionaries ! The Alto computer system had 
 Graphical User Interface – GUI 
 and a mouse as an input ! Desktop metaphor with Files and folders Alto Computer 1972
  44. 44. Then Steve came on a visit
  45. 45. Graphical User Interfaces – GUI Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979 Negotiated at deal with Xerox ! They showed him: Object Oriented Programming! Computer networks! Graphical User Interface! ! Apple started to work on this vision The Pirate Years
  46. 46. RPV Theory Xerox had just build the
 OS of the future but they
 did nothing with it

  47. 47. Graphical User Interfaces – GUI Desktop metaphor Point,  activate,  select Windows,  scroll  bars Point,  
 Click,
 Drag Menus Files,  folders Icons Graphical  fonts Clipboard,  cut  and  paste,  undo
  48. 48. Apple Lisa First commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995! Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz clock rate and had 1MB RAM ! Featured cooperative (non-preemptive) multi-tasking and virtual memory !
  49. 49. Apple Lisa First commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995! ! Impact: Business failure Too expensive Too slow ! !
  50. 50. Adjacent Possible Technology wasn’t 
 there yet
  51. 51. Macintosh In 1984, Apple launched Macintosh Cost $1.995! ! Graphical User Interface ! This set the standard for Operating Systems ! Specification: 128 KB of RAM Screen was a 9-inch, 
 512x342 pixel monochrome display
  52. 52. Macintosh Acceptance was slow The Mac was underpowered The GUI required memory and power ! Writing Software was difficult ! Gained popularity in education and with 
 graphical designers – desktop publishers ! Not so popular in the traditional business sector Microsoft provided applications (office apps)
  53. 53. Others Join the Game Microsoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985 ! Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces were the future ! Regarded Front-end to DOS ! Other players IBM TopView, DR GEM ! Impact Software companies ignored Windows The business sector was not ready
  54. 54. DOS was in Crisis By 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3 ! But frustration increased
  55. 55. DOS was in Crisis Single task system – you can only run one program at the time ! The 640 KB memory barrier TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident became popular but was causing problems ! Users were looking for multitasking ! Run more than one program at a time ! More advanced operating system was needed
  56. 56. Windows 3.0 Windows finally became usable Released May 1990 ! Better use of memory Multitasking Used the 286 and 386 hardware better Support for CD-ROM Solitaire ! Impact: First GUI used by the
 PC market The end of DOS, finally
  57. 57. Windows 95
  58. 58. KEY TREND Computers become 
 consumer devices
  59. 59. Windows 95 Microsoft turned to consumers Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market Support for the Internet Internet Explorer Friendlier user interfaces ! Impact Released with great fanfare Came to dominate the OS market The OS become more important than the hardware
  60. 60. Operating System for Consumers
  61. 61. Operating Systems Today More chocies, less important Ubuntu Mac  OS  X   Windows
  62. 62. Think about this! Computers become commoditized – brands are not
 important anymore
  63. 63. Lessons
  64. 64. Lessons ▪ Shift from hardware to software ▪ None  of  the  minicomputer  makers  became  a   significant  factor  in  the  desktop  personal  computer   market   ▪ The  PC  was  disruptive  technology   ▪ The  minicomputer  users  were  not  buying  PCs  –  yet   ▪ This  created  a  new  set  of  entrants:  Apple,  Tandy,   Commodore,  and  IBM
  65. 65. Lessons ▪ In  the  late  1980s  the  performance  of  PCs  met  the  needs  of   minicomputer  users   ▪ This  severely  wounded  minicomputer  makers  –  many  of   them  failed   ▪ At  same  time  IBM  succeeded  in  entering  the  PC  market  –   how?   ▪ It  created  an  autonomous  organization  in  Florida  –  far   away  from  it’s  New  York  headquarters   ▪ They  created  the  PC  market   ▪ Then  headquarters  took  control  and  lost  control  to  the   Clones
  66. 66. Lessons ▪ Xerox mangement did not enter the computer market ▪ PARC members tried to show management – but they “just didn’t get it” ▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business – their customers were not asking for computer systems ▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources, processes and values – RPV theory
  67. 67. Lessons ▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of computers ▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but did not pursue it ▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and others did not get rich of computers and software ▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make much money
  68. 68. Lessons ▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started Microsoft ▪ Took the opportunity with MITS ▪ Focused on software ▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but Microsoft bought similar OS and succeeded ▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh ▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win ▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it
  69. 69. Lessons ▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers and then GUIs ▪ GUI were slow to appear ▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users ▪ Stretched the hardware at the time ▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers ▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance ▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some niche market in Desktop Publishing and schools
  70. 70. Lessons ▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer ▪ First mass market of Operating Systems – The Internet helped ▪ Today we have three major Operating Systems – Linux (Unix based) – MacOS (Unix based) – Windows
  71. 71. Q7 What is the future of Personal Computers?
  72. 72. PC Evolution Software  OS  era   Windows,  Office,  MacOS Hardware  era   PC,  Mac 1975 1980 1985 Internet   Hardware  Connects 1990 IBM  PC Apple 1995 2000 Microsoft 2005 Software  web  era   Web  2.0,  Social 2010 2015 Internet  of  things
  73. 73. 20 petaflops, or a quadrillion calculations per second
  74. 74. Miniature Computers Small devices that have computer power Wireless capabilities Dedicated devices Enough computer power for limited functionality ! Examples RFID UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles Internet of things Siftables
  75. 75. David Merrill demos Stiftables Ted video
  76. 76. The Future of the PC How long will the Hard Disk Drive last? Solid state memory is getting bigger Terabit Flash Memory Computer architecture will change More and more devices are
 using Flash memory Driving prices down
  77. 77. Tablets
  78. 78. Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…
  79. 79. The Network is the Comptuer The Internet cloud ! More programs and data is stored on network servers ! The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network ! Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API
  80. 80. Tom Watson was wrong – there 
 is not room for five computers.
 It’s only one
  81. 81. What about Moore’s Law Shift to multicore started in
 2005 – new dimension
  82. 82. What about Moore’s Law Move to cloud-core
  83. 83. What about Moore’s Law $1,279-­‐per-­‐hour,  30,000-­‐core  
 cluster  built  on  Amazon  EC2  cloud
  84. 84. How will we interact with 
 computers in the future? ! Assume that the desktop 
 metaphor with mouse and 
 desktop and files – is dead MISSION: E NEXT CLASS FIND OUT BEFOR

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