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L13 The Power of Software

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After the computing industry got started, a new problem quickly emerged. How do you operate this machines and how to you program them. The development of operating systems was relatively slow compared to the advances in hardware. First system were primitive but slowly got better as demand for computing power incresed. The ideas of the Graphical User Interfaces or GUI (Gooey) go back to Doug Engelbarts Demo of the Century. However, this did not have much impact on the computer industry. One company though, Xerox, a photocopy company explored these ideas with Palo Alto Park. Steve Jobs of Apple and Bill Gates of Microsoft took notice and Apple introduced first Apple Lisa and the Macintosh. In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of software, and see how our business theories apply.

In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of software, and see how our business theories apply.

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L13 The Power of Software

  1. 1. LECTURE L13 THE POWER OF SOFTWARE
  2. 2. Early Computers Software was ignored as the focus was on hardware Women in math were hired to program Grace Hopper Jean Jennings Betty Snyder
  3. 3. The Software Crisis
  4. 4. Software As computers became more powerful and more common, a new problem surfaced: software Development of computers was a hardware problem Software or programs did not get the same attention Operating systems were primitive and programming 
 was done at a very low level
  5. 5. The Software Crisis “[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!” -Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer Source:  Software_crisis Software Engineering was not a established field Became known as The Software Crisis
  6. 6. Q1 What solved the software crisis?
  7. 7. Operating Systems IBM developed OS/360 for System 360 DEC developed VMS for VAX Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix System V, BSD, Solaris Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix licence
  8. 8. Programming Languages FORTRAN Mathematical Formula Translation System Released in 1957 Higher level language that became 
 breakthrough in writing software Created by John Backus of IBM Came on 2.000 punched cards Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol
  9. 9. May 25, 1961 Status: Mainframe era, mini computer early days Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented Programming languages new
  10. 10. Q2 What role did the US space program have on computer innovation?
  11. 11. “The space program badly needed the things the integrated circuit could provide.” - Jack St. Clair Kilby
  12. 12. Semiconductor Industry is Born Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company Initial focus was on memory chips There was still enormous potential market for calculations The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realised but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organisations
  13. 13. The Microprocessor Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971 8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979 The beginning of the PC
  14. 14. The Microprocessor Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business No market existed No demand at the time Intel created 4004 for another company They would not market chips, but built them when ordered
  15. 15. Q3 What was the first product in the market after the introduction of computer chips? HINT: It disrupted a device that was invented in1625
  16. 16. The Calculator
  17. 17. The Calculator Advances in technology introduced the 
 desktop calculator The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s Replaced the slide rule after 374 years
  18. 18. Calculator Wars Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972 Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974 Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues
  19. 19. Think about this! All mini-computer companies had
 what it would take to go into small
 scale products – they even had
 people proposing the idea, but they
 did not!
  20. 20. The Personal Computer
  21. 21. The Personal Computer MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080 Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts
  22. 22. Microsoft is Born Bill Gates and Paul Allen Wrote a BASIC interpreter for the Altair Founded a company they called Micro-Soft
  23. 23. Enter Apple Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto 
 Homebrew Computer Club in 1976 Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth” Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market
  24. 24. “The Personal Computer will fall flat on its face in business.” - Ken Olsen
  25. 25. Computer Companies Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl Support for machines like this was considered impossible Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists
  26. 26. Think About This! The Liquid Network
  27. 27. The Software Industry First applications were non-serious Soon business applications started to emerge VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer sales was due to this program Other business apps appeared: Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc. Disruptive technology
  28. 28. Killer Apps Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet The spreadsheet created a new market People bought the hardware to run the software
  29. 29. Q4 IBM successfully entered the PC market – according to RPV theory this would be difficult. How did they do this?
  30. 30. IBM PC IBM decided to enter the PC revolution The company was loosing market share, competition was growing Project “Chess” Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn” Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL Looked for parts outside of the company
  31. 31. The War of the OS IBM needed an Operating System Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary Kildall Microsoft was providing programming languages
 and suggested that IBM make a deal with DR
  32. 32. The Birth of the Microsoft DOS Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary
  33. 33. The War of the OS IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from another company Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market
  34. 34. PC-DOS Small system Came on a floppy
  35. 35. IBM PC The IBM PC was introduced 12. 
 August 1981 in New York 4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM, 
 DOS 1.0 for $1.565
  36. 36. Enter the Clones
  37. 37. Enter the Clones IBM released all the specification of the machine - Open system This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines Compac was one of them
  38. 38. Enter the Clones IBM controlled the market for a few years They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted 
 performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from 
 cannibalising higher-priced models The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines The PC market took off IBM started to loose market share
  39. 39. PC Compatible Machines Ruled Early 80s IBM PC became the standard hardware MS-DOS became the industry standard OS Command Line Interface – CLI Text User Interfaces – TUI
  40. 40. Key Trend Focus in on hardware, the
 software is good-enough
  41. 41. Adoption Life Cycle Still in the early stages – 
 technology is the focus
  42. 42. The Demo in 1968 “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” - Alan Key
  43. 43. The Demo 1968
  44. 44. The Demo in 1968 Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation 
 Research Centre in Melno Park Demonstrated the future of computing
  45. 45. Features A pointing device – the Mouse 
 Hypertext, graphical user interface
 Dynamic file linking Shared-screen collaboration involving 
 two persons at different sites 
 communicating over a network with 
 audio and video interface
  46. 46. Xerox Parc
  47. 47. Xerox Parc Alto Computer 1972 Xerox created a lab in 1970 Palo Alto Research Park – PARC PARC was a place for visionaries The Alto computer system had 
 Graphical User Interface – GUI 
 and a mouse as an input Desktop metaphor with Files and folders
  48. 48. Then Steve came on a visit
  49. 49. Graphical User Interfaces – GUI Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979 Negotiated at deal with Xerox They showed him: Object Oriented Programming Computer networks Graphical User Interface Apple started to work on this vision The Pirate Years
  50. 50. RPV Theory Xerox had just built the
 OS of the future but they
 did nothing with it

  51. 51. Graphical User Interfaces – GUI Desktop metaphor Point,  
 Click,
 Drag Files,  folders Icons Windows,  scroll  bars Menus Graphical  fonts Clipboard,  cut  and  paste,  undo Point,  activate,  select
  52. 52. Apple Lisa First commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995 Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz clock rate and had 1MB RAM Featured cooperative (non-preemptive) multi-tasking and virtual memory
  53. 53. Q5 Why did the Lisa fail?
  54. 54. Apple Lisa First commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995 Impact: Business failure Too expensive Too slow
  55. 55. Adjacent Possible Technology wasn’t 
 there yet
  56. 56. Macintosh In 1984, Apple launched Macintosh Cost $1.995 Graphical User Interface This set the standard for Operating Systems Specification: 128 KB of RAM Screen was a 9-inch, 
 512x342 pixel monochrome display
  57. 57. Macintosh Acceptance was slow The Mac was underpowered The GUI required memory and power Writing Software was difficult Gained popularity in education and with 
 graphical designers – desktop publishers Not so popular in the traditional business sector Microsoft provided applications (office apps)
  58. 58. Others Join the Game Microsoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985 Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces were the future Regarded Front-end to DOS Other players IBM TopView, DR GEM Impact Software companies ignored Windows The business sector was not ready
  59. 59. DOS was in Crisis By 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3 But frustration increased
  60. 60. Q6 What were customers looking for?
  61. 61. DOS was in Crisis Single task system – you can only run one program at the time The 640 KB memory barrier TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident became popular but was causing problems Users were looking for multitasking Run more than one program at a time More advanced operating system was needed
  62. 62. Windows 3.0 Windows finally became usable Released May 1990 Better use of memory Multitasking Used the 286 and 386 hardware better Support for CD-ROM Solitaire Impact: First GUI used by the
 PC market The start of end of DOS, finally
  63. 63. Windows 95
  64. 64. KEY TREND Computers become consumer devices
  65. 65. Windows 95 Microsoft turned to consumers Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market Support for the Internet Internet Explorer Friendlier user interfaces Impact Released with great fanfare Came to dominate the OS market The OS become more important than the hardware
  66. 66. Operating System for Consumers
  67. 67. Operating Systems Today Ubuntu Mac  OS  X   Windows More choices, less important Android
  68. 68. Think about this! Computers become commoditised – brands are not so
 important anymore
  69. 69. Q7 What is the future of Personal Computers?
  70. 70. PC Evolution 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Hardware  era   PC,  Mac Software  OS  era   Windows,  Office,  MacOS Internet   Hardware  Connects IBM  PC Microsoft Apple 2010 Software  web  era   Web  2.0,  Social 2015 Internet  of  things 2020 Apple Google Smartphone Wearable Startups
  71. 71. 20 petaflops, or a quadrillion calculations per second
  72. 72. Miniature Computers Small devices that have computer power Wireless capabilities Dedicated devices Enough computer power for limited functionality Examples RFID UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles Internet of things Siftables
  73. 73. Ted video David Merrill demos Stiftables
  74. 74. The Future of the PC How long will the Hard Disk Drive last? Solid state memory is getting bigger Terabit Flash Memory Computer architecture will change More and more devices are
 using Flash memory Driving prices down
  75. 75. Tablets
  76. 76. Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…
  77. 77. The Network is the Computer The Internet cloud More programs and data is stored on network servers The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API
  78. 78. Tom Watson was wrong – there 
 is not room for five computers.
 It’s only one
  79. 79. What about Moore’s Law? Shift to multicore started in
 2005 – new dimension
  80. 80. Move to cloud-core What about Moore’s Law? Amazon has over 2.24 million machines in 
 some 87 data centers
  81. 81. $1,279-per-hour, 30,000-core 
 cluster built on Amazon EC2 cloud What about Moore’s Law?
  82. 82. How will we interact with 
 computers in the future? Assume that the desktop 
 metaphor with mouse and 
 desktop and files – is dead MISSION: FIND OUT BEFORE NEXT CLASS

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