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Jun Union Clac Strom

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Jun Union Clac Strom

  1. 1. David Strom June 18 2008 Giving thanks to 20 years of Bill Gates: And what the future of IT will be without him
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Why we should thank Bill </li></ul><ul><li>A look back to 1988 and what we were using then </li></ul><ul><li>Some of your stories </li></ul><ul><li>My predictions for the future </li></ul>
  3. 3. Bill Gates is still richer than you
  4. 4. Key points <ul><li>Microsoft has made our careers possible </li></ul><ul><li>Fear, uncertainty, and doubt are all good things even for academics </li></ul><ul><li>Imagine if all this stuff worked out of the box! </li></ul><ul><li>Prices have come way down and continue to do so! </li></ul><ul><li>We are still smarter than our students on most days </li></ul><ul><li>Thanks to Bill for some great stories over the years </li></ul>
  5. 5. We thrive on change <ul><li>CPU, OS, applications change every two-three years </li></ul><ul><li>The Web has become a dynamic place </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Send in your homework </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Find last year’s exam answers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plagarize your assignments </li></ul></ul><ul><li>It’s hard enough to find the menu commands in Office 2007 and IE7, let alone explain why to civilians </li></ul>
  6. 6. The only keyboard Windows needs
  7. 7. Thank you Bill! <ul><li>For some laughs </li></ul><ul><li>For lots of lawsuits </li></ul><ul><li>For full employment for IT professionals (and journalists) </li></ul><ul><li>For a chance at investing in Microsoft’s stock </li></ul><ul><li>For some awkward interviewing moments over the years </li></ul>
  8. 8. Microsoft stock value
  9. 9. One reason for Bill’s retirement: Demos!
  10. 10. Words in the Microsoft lexicon <ul><li>Fear, uncertainty and doubt </li></ul><ul><li>We are on a product death march </li></ul><ul><li>Our software is now code complete </li></ul><ul><li>And is now released to manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>We have plenty of Vista-ready PCs </li></ul><ul><li>We are not monopolists </li></ul><ul><li>Cut off Netscape’s air supply </li></ul><ul><li>Abort, retry, reboot </li></ul><ul><li>More at http://cinepad.com/mslex.htm </li></ul>
  11. 11. Thanks for killing off <ul><li>DOS 4.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Windows ME </li></ul><ul><li>OS/2 (all versions) </li></ul><ul><li>Lotus 1-2-3 </li></ul><ul><li>Netware </li></ul><ul><li>Word Perfect </li></ul><ul><li>Netscape </li></ul><ul><li>Bob </li></ul><ul><li>WebTV, and your favorites here </li></ul>
  12. 12. Speaking of floppy disks <ul><li>My story at PC Week (formatting) </li></ul><ul><li>My story at Transamerica Occidental Life (copying) </li></ul>
  13. 13. Back in 1982, Bill said in PC Magazine Issue #1: <ul><li>“ We’ll be able to write big fat programs. We can let them run somewhat inefficiently because there will be so much horsepower out there.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ 300 MB hard drives in the $10-$15,000 range” </li></ul><ul><li>“ We are still not at a stage where I would tell my mother just to go out and buy a PC” </li></ul><ul><li>“ You have to be a real bits and bytes man to get that Apple to play any kind of decent musical tone” </li></ul>
  14. 14. Let’s go back to 1988 for a moment <ul><li>What stuff did our students have in their dorm rooms? </li></ul><ul><li>What kinds of devices and PCs were we using? </li></ul><ul><li>How much did things cost? </li></ul><ul><li>Had Al Gore invented the Internet yet? </li></ul>
  15. 15. My dorm room at Union <ul><li>Hot plate </li></ul><ul><li>A barely functioning electric typewriter </li></ul><ul><li>Stereo set with enormous speakers and lots of LPs </li></ul><ul><li>A payphone “down the hall” </li></ul>
  16. 16. My daughter’s dorm room today <ul><li>Two laptop computers (Mac and Windows) w/ wireless Internet access and built-in Web cams </li></ul><ul><li>Three iPods (one to workout with) with 4,000 tracks </li></ul><ul><li>Two digital cameras </li></ul><ul><li>Two cell phones and one landline that is rarely used </li></ul><ul><li>TV, DVD and cable hookup </li></ul><ul><li>Microwave, mini fridge supplied by the college </li></ul><ul><li>Stacks of DVDs and a few CDs to complete the p2p downloaded tunes </li></ul>
  17. 17. Fond memories of our first PCs <ul><li>Mine was a HP 85 (+$3,000, 1980) </li></ul><ul><li>Your first computers: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pre-Mac Apples </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Radio Shack model 1 </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Price drops <ul><li>10 years ago, a typical PC base price was $5,500 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1 MB RAM, 40 MB disk, 16 MHz CPU </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Then add 2 MB RAM for $1,700 </li></ul><ul><li>Monitors were around $750 - $1,000 (12” VGA) </li></ul><ul><li>You were at $10,000 before you knew it! </li></ul><ul><li>This doesn’t mean we should cut our fees, though! </li></ul>
  19. 23. Now look at what kind of storage you can buy
  20. 26. What has succeeded despite Microsoft <ul><li>Spreadsheets, and not just for numbers either </li></ul><ul><li>Linux and all that open source stuff </li></ul><ul><li>Apache and the Web </li></ul><ul><li>Apple’s iPod </li></ul><ul><li>Macintoshes </li></ul><ul><li>Windows NT and now XP </li></ul><ul><li>Rick-rolling </li></ul>
  21. 28. Thanks also to Google! <ul><li>Web-based email: Gmail (vs Hotmail) </li></ul><ul><li>Search (vs MSN) </li></ul><ul><li>Web mashups (maybe Silverlight and Popfly) </li></ul>
  22. 29. Windows is great job security <ul><li>You can’t secure it from exploits and bot nets </li></ul><ul><li>You can’t find Vista drivers, still > one year later </li></ul><ul><li>You need us to maintain updates and patches </li></ul><ul><li>Not to mention operate personal firewalls and HIPS </li></ul><ul><li>It doesn’t play well with other OS’s </li></ul><ul><li>It changes faster than student fashions </li></ul><ul><li>It keeps getting bigger and bigger … </li></ul>
  23. 30. Size of Microsoft’s OSs
  24. 31. 20 years of lawsuits too! <ul><li>1989: Apple sues over Windows UI </li></ul><ul><li>1994: Dept. of Justice, Windows </li></ul><ul><li>1994: Stac, disk compression: wins $126 million </li></ul><ul><li>1995: Wang, OLE: wins and then disappears </li></ul><ul><li>1996: Caldera, DR-DOS: annoys entire Linux world </li></ul><ul><li>1997: Borland, their ex-employees </li></ul><ul><li>1998: Dept. of Justice, browser tactics </li></ul><ul><li>2003: Real Network, media player </li></ul><ul><li>Various: Sun, $2 Billion payout! </li></ul>
  25. 32. Overall, lawsuits have cost Microsoft $9 Billion! <ul><li>At one time, </li></ul><ul><li>more than 130 </li></ul><ul><li>concurrent suits! </li></ul>
  26. 33. The true Windows default settings
  27. 34. Your stories <ul><li>Installing a flat screen TV right before the Superbowl </li></ul><ul><li>Vint Cerf audience remark via Blackberry </li></ul><ul><li>Unusual network-attached device: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>German HVAC units are managed remotely </li></ul></ul>
  28. 35. Looking toward the future <ul><li>Web “5.0” and what it will look like </li></ul><ul><li>Social networks will be everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>The legalization of p2p networks </li></ul><ul><li>The state of the CMS </li></ul><ul><li>Virtualization, clustering, and green computing </li></ul>
  29. 36. The Web today <ul><li>Blogs are everywhere, even </li></ul><ul><li>at Microsoft -- several thousand of </li></ul><ul><li>them! </li></ul><ul><li>Social networks multiplying too </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile-specific content </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud computing </li></ul>
  30. 37. Mashups and rich apps <ul><li>Tools aren’t there yet </li></ul><ul><li>Companies like SnapLogic, Kapow and yes, Microsoft are trying hard to help with incorporating your internal data sources </li></ul><ul><li>Mashup editors like Popfly (MSFT), QEDWiki (IBM), and Wavemaker (Axajian) are just at v1 </li></ul><ul><li>My favorite is Stockaholic from Editgrid </li></ul><ul><li>Wikis and other collaborative tools just coming online </li></ul>
  31. 38. Twitter and live personalized broadcasts
  32. 39. Are you my friend yet or what?
  33. 40. P2p networks <ul><li>Colleges are on the cutting edge of illegal downloaders, still </li></ul><ul><li>TV companies are slowly learning from music’s mistakes </li></ul><ul><li>How much of your bandwidth do you want to reclaim for “real” computing purposes? </li></ul><ul><li>DRM is slowly going the way of the dodo, thankfully! </li></ul>
  34. 41. CMS vs. the Web <ul><li>We still have poor toolsets to manage Web content </li></ul><ul><li>There are hundreds of CMS’s and none of them usable by mere mortals </li></ul><ul><li>Mashups have only made the problem worse as we add more non-text content </li></ul>
  35. 42. Virtualization is the new clustering <ul><li>Clustering was too complex and too finicky about drivers </li></ul><ul><li>Virtualization now can deliver almost near-time failover </li></ul><ul><li>Efforts underway to make it more open systems friendly by Novell, Citrix, and others </li></ul><ul><li>Efforts underway by Vmware to make their pricing more understandable </li></ul><ul><li>Efforts underway by Microsoft to give it all away for free! </li></ul>
  36. 43. The Greening of IT <ul><li>Virtualization is just one tool to help cut power and cooling costs </li></ul><ul><li>Redesigning our data centers to handle more distributed racks and systems </li></ul><ul><li>The raised floor that is filled with cables and no air flow </li></ul><ul><li>Hot and cool aisles to localize A/C airflow </li></ul><ul><li>Servers that automatically power down when not needed </li></ul>
  37. 45. So thanks again Bill for the memories <ul><li>Questions and comments </li></ul><ul><li>Enjoy your prizes! </li></ul><ul><li>David Strom </li></ul><ul><li>(310) 857-6867 </li></ul><ul><li>http://strominator.com </li></ul>

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