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Key Instruments of International Development AgenciesPresentation at Seminar on“Informing the G20 Agenda: Actions to Addre...
Outline<br />CHALLENGES<br />II.	RESPONSE INSTRUMENTS<br />Long-term  <br />Short-term<br />III. COORDINATION<br />
 FOOD Demand + Production Shocks +    Stocks = Food Price volatility<br />3<br />CHALLENGES<br />World Maize, Wheat, Rice<...
CONSECUTIVE AND PRONOUNCED PRICE SPIKES<br />Price Index, 2000 = 100 (Prices through to end May 2011)<br />4<br />CHALLENG...
 developing countries entered 2010/11 WITH higher production, more stocks, and deeper trade<br />5<br />CHALLENGES<br />Ce...
6<br />CHALLENGES<br />OUTLOOK<br />RESPONSE<br />Low and Middle Income Countries<br />Exploit Opportunities<br />Producti...
RESPONSE INSTRUMENTS<br />Examples<br />Financing and analytical support to raising longer-term productivity growth<br />G...
Improving water management
Strengthening land tenure security and land markets
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Price Volatility.RobertTownsend.G20

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Rob Townsend, World Bank, Presentation at Seminar on “Informing the G20 Agenda: Actions to Address Food Price Volatility" at IFPRI on 14 June 2011

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Transcript of "Price Volatility.RobertTownsend.G20"

  1. 1. Key Instruments of International Development AgenciesPresentation at Seminar on“Informing the G20 Agenda: Actions to Address Food Price Volatility”<br />
  2. 2. Outline<br />CHALLENGES<br />II. RESPONSE INSTRUMENTS<br />Long-term <br />Short-term<br />III. COORDINATION<br />
  3. 3. FOOD Demand + Production Shocks + Stocks = Food Price volatility<br />3<br />CHALLENGES<br />World Maize, Wheat, Rice<br />
  4. 4. CONSECUTIVE AND PRONOUNCED PRICE SPIKES<br />Price Index, 2000 = 100 (Prices through to end May 2011)<br />4<br />CHALLENGES<br />Source: World Bank<br />
  5. 5. developing countries entered 2010/11 WITH higher production, more stocks, and deeper trade<br />5<br />CHALLENGES<br />Cereals, % change 2009/10 to 2010/11 [FAO forecast]<br />Developing countries<br />Improved resilience in some countries, but not all<br />Dampened pass-through of world prices so far in some countries but not all<br />Developing Countries<br />Production<br />Developed countries<br />Handicapped by lower production, stocks, trade<br />Weather induced<br />Account for 70% of world cereals trade<br />Declines contributed to world food price increases<br />… BUT MUCH MORE IS NEEDED<br />Source: FAO<br />
  6. 6. 6<br />CHALLENGES<br />OUTLOOK<br />RESPONSE<br />Low and Middle Income Countries<br />Exploit Opportunities<br />Productivity growth<br />Link farmers to markets<br />Manage risks<br />Coping strategies for most vulnerable<br />Climate smart<br />World food prices are expected to remain higher and more volatile than their pre-2007 levels<br />Short term price volatility is increasingly becoming a long term phenomenon<br />
  7. 7. RESPONSE INSTRUMENTS<br />Examples<br />Financing and analytical support to raising longer-term productivity growth<br />Growth Rate of Cereal Yields in Developing Countries Has Improved But is Still Low <br />Focus:<br /><ul><li>Using existing technology better
  8. 8. Improving water management
  9. 9. Strengthening land tenure security and land markets
  10. 10. Improving livestock management
  11. 11. Investing in agricultural research for technology generation</li></ul>Instruments:<br /><ul><li>Budget support (e.g. Ghana)
  12. 12. Investment project financing (country, regional, programmatic)
  13. 13. Analytical work (e.g. Rising Global Interest in Farmland) </li></ul>Rolling 10 year growth rates (%)<br />7<br />
  14. 14. RESPONSE <br />INSTRUMENTS<br />Examples<br />Financing and analytical support for short-term rapid responses<br />Need continued vigilance and preparedness with short-term rapid response facilities (e.g., GFRP)<br />GLOBAL FOOD PRICE CRISIS RESPONSE PROGRAM (GFRP)<br />44 countries, 38 million beneficiaries<br />Focus:<br /><ul><li>Food price policies, fiscal support
  15. 15. Safety nets and nutrition (contributing to the broader Bank Strategy on Social Protection)
  16. 16. Short-term food production</li></ul>Instruments:<br /><ul><li>Expedited processing
  17. 17. Budget support (e.g. Sierra Leone)
  18. 18. Project financing (e.g. Niger, Liberia)
  19. 19. Analytical work (e.g. food prices)</li></ul>World Grain Price Index, 2000 = 100 <br />(Prices through to end May 2011)<br />8<br />
  20. 20. COORDINATED <br />ACTION<br />Coordinated Action<br />Joint POLICY input to the G20<br />Longer-term productivity<br />Market information system<br />Transparency in futures & OTC mkts<br />Trade policy<br />Humanitarian food<br />Biofuels policies<br />Strategic food emergency reserves<br />Safety nets<br />Market based risk management <br />Policy co-ordination<br />Implementation<br /><ul><li>Country level
  21. 21. Co-financing
  22. 22. Analytical work
  23. 23. Regional level
  24. 24. CAADP
  25. 25. LCR Donor Platform for Rural Development
  26. 26. Global level
  27. 27. Global Agriculture and Food Security Program
  28. 28. Global Donor Platform for Rural Development</li>
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