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Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda<br />Shenggen FanDirector General<br />International F...
Key messages<br />Global food security is under stress<br />Africa needs special attention<br />Agenda for achieving susta...
Food security under stress<br />Population growth and demographic changes<br />High and volatile prices<br />Land and wate...
Hunger increased in the last decade<br />Number of undernourished (1969-71 to 2009)<br />Source: FAO 2009.<br />
29 countries have “alarming“/“extremely alarming” levels of hunger (2009 GHI)<br />GHI components:<br /><ul><li>Proportion...
Prevalence of underweight in children
Under-five mortality rate</li></ul>Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.<br />
Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9 bil. by 2050<br />All growth to come fro...
Land constraints are high<br />Land degradation, 1981-2003<br />Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC).<br />
Water stress is also high<br />Severe water stress will affect about half of the world's population by 2030 (OECD 2008)  <...
NCAR A2a<br />Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.<br />Climate change will put additional pressure on food production syste...
Trade policies affecting food prices <br />Food security now more dependent on non-food policies e.g. trade, energy, finan...
Africa needs special attention<br />Poverty prevalence ca. 2005 ($1.25/day)<br />2009 Global Hunger Index<br />Source: Sta...
Progress towards 10% budget allocation of the Maputo Declaration in Africa<br />Source: ReSAKSS 2009.<br />
Agricultural growth rates required to achieve MDG1<br />Source: Fan et al. 2009.<br />
Annual agriculture financing gaps to meet the poverty MDG – African countries<br />Source: Johnson 2009.<br />
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS)<br />Africa-wide network <br />Supports implementation ...
1. Improve smallholder productivity<br />Improve access to inputs (e.g. seeds, fertilizer)<br />Improve access to services...
2. Link smallholders to markets<br /><ul><li>Promote stronger farm-firm linkages
Support beneficial institutional arrangements e.g.
Producer marketing cooperatives
Contract farming schemes
Warehouse receipts
Scale up pro-poor ICTs e.g.
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Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

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Multistakeholder Dialogue on Implementing Sustainable Development
New York, February 1, 2010

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Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

  1. 1. Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda<br />Shenggen FanDirector General<br />International Food Policy Research Institute<br />Multistakeholder Dialogue on Implementing Sustainable Development<br />New York, February 1, 2010<br />
  2. 2. Key messages<br />Global food security is under stress<br />Africa needs special attention<br />Agenda for achieving sustainable food security<br />
  3. 3. Food security under stress<br />Population growth and demographic changes<br />High and volatile prices<br />Land and water constraints<br />Climate change etc.<br />Food security stress<br />Agenda<br />Africa<br />
  4. 4. Hunger increased in the last decade<br />Number of undernourished (1969-71 to 2009)<br />Source: FAO 2009.<br />
  5. 5. 29 countries have “alarming“/“extremely alarming” levels of hunger (2009 GHI)<br />GHI components:<br /><ul><li>Proportion of undernourished
  6. 6. Prevalence of underweight in children
  7. 7. Under-five mortality rate</li></ul>Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.<br />
  8. 8. Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9 bil. by 2050<br />All growth to come from urban areas<br />Most growth to come from developing countries<br />Rising working age population in Africa<br />Source: FAO 2009.<br />Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food<br />
  9. 9. Land constraints are high<br />Land degradation, 1981-2003<br />Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC).<br />
  10. 10. Water stress is also high<br />Severe water stress will affect about half of the world's population by 2030 (OECD 2008) <br />Source: IWMI 2004.<br />
  11. 11. NCAR A2a<br />Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.<br />Climate change will put additional pressure on food production systems<br />Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050<br />Global production = -16%<br />
  12. 12. Trade policies affecting food prices <br />Food security now more dependent on non-food policies e.g. trade, energy, finance <br />Source: Headey, Malaiyandi, and Fan 2009.<br />
  13. 13. Africa needs special attention<br />Poverty prevalence ca. 2005 ($1.25/day)<br />2009 Global Hunger Index<br />Source: Stan Wood et al. 2009.<br />Pixel size: 25km2<br />Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.<br />Food security stress<br />Agenda<br />Africa<br />
  14. 14. Progress towards 10% budget allocation of the Maputo Declaration in Africa<br />Source: ReSAKSS 2009.<br />
  15. 15. Agricultural growth rates required to achieve MDG1<br />Source: Fan et al. 2009.<br />
  16. 16. Annual agriculture financing gaps to meet the poverty MDG – African countries<br />Source: Johnson 2009.<br />
  17. 17. Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS)<br />Africa-wide network <br />Supports implementation of CAADP and other regional initiatives by:<br />promoting evidence-based decision-making<br />improving awareness of the role of agriculture for development<br />filling knowledge gaps<br />promoting dialogue<br />facilitating CAADP benchmarking and review processes<br />http://www.resakss.org<br />
  18. 18. 1. Improve smallholder productivity<br />Improve access to inputs (e.g. seeds, fertilizer)<br />Improve access to services (e.g. extension) <br />Increase investment in rural infrastructure (e.g. rural feeder roads, water, irrigation) <br />Promote agricultural research and innovation<br />Food security stress<br />Agenda<br />Africa<br />
  19. 19. 2. Link smallholders to markets<br /><ul><li>Promote stronger farm-firm linkages
  20. 20. Support beneficial institutional arrangements e.g.
  21. 21. Producer marketing cooperatives
  22. 22. Contract farming schemes
  23. 23. Warehouse receipts
  24. 24. Scale up pro-poor ICTs e.g.
  25. 25. Agricultural market information
  26. 26. Micro-finance and m-banking</li></li></ul><li>3. Keep trade open<br />Eliminate harmful trade restrictions<br />Complete the Doha Round <br />if tariffs increase to their current WTO limits (bound level): <br />11.5% loss of developing country exports <br />US$353 billion loss in world welfare<br />Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be high<br />Source: Bouet and Laborde 2009.<br />
  27. 27. 4. Promote productive safety nets<br />Goals: <br />Secure and smooth food consumption<br />Enable saving and investment <br />Build and diversify assets<br />Types of interventions e.g.:<br />Conditional cash/food transfers<br />Maternal and child health/nutrition programs<br />Public works<br />Insurance for the poor<br />Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources<br />Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.<br />
  28. 28. 5. Integrate climate change into strategies at all levels<br /><ul><li> Crop and livestock selection
  29. 29. Cropping and grazing pattern
  30. 30. Irrigation/watering technology
  31. 31. Water allocation policy
  32. 32. Infrastructure investment
  33. 33. Land use change
  34. 34. Agriculture and water price policies
  35. 35. Investment, subsidy, tax policies
  36. 36. Trade policies
  37. 37. Regional trade policies
  38. 38. Global climate policies
  39. 39. Global trading patterns</li></ul>Climate change<br />Farm level<br />Extreme weather events<br />Basin level<br />National level<br />Demographic change<br />Regional level<br />Conflict and crises<br />Global level<br />GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPACIAL SCALES<br />Source: IFPRI, Ringler 2007.<br />
  40. 40. 6. Reform global food governance system<br />Reform options:<br />Maintain current institutions: Make marginal improvements<br />Form innovative government networks: Strengthen government-to-government systems for decision making <br />Expand current system: Explicitly engage the new players in the global food system—the private sector and civil society<br />Source: von Braun and Islam 2009.<br />
  41. 41. In sum<br />Improve smallholder productivity<br />Link smallholders to markets<br />Keep trade open<br />Promote productive safety nets<br />Integrate climate change into strategies at all levels<br />Reform global food governance system<br />
  42. 42. Further prioritization of actions needed<br />Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009.<br />
  43. 43. The most effective and sustainable actions must be country-led and country-owned<br />

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