Informed Cities Forum 2011 Shared intelligece for the Urban Century Joe RavetzPresentation Transcript
The informed city & the intelligent city – applying foresight for creative action 27 October 2011 Joe Ravetz Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology University of Manchester www.manchester.ac.uk/cure
Contents1. What is a city ? Actually I’m not What is urban? sure who is best2. From information to suited to our kind knowledge to of problem intelligence3. Application – urban climate intelligence4. Putting it together5. Examples from cities6. Conclusions & way forward
1. What is a city?
What is ‘urban’?
What is ‘urban’? Metro-scape - peri-urban – Global network of hubs,edge city – rural-urban region... clusters, gateways
What is ‘urban’? Community of Continuous cycles of growthspecialised urban types & decline
What is urban? Multiple games Wow so this is what really goes The stakes are high –on – gamblers are you can double your playing cards or money, but the nextMonopoly with the minute you can lose whole city everything - houses, factories, offices, whole cities … all laid to waste And look at those poor people – Actually I don’t scraping together think they’re verytheir last few coins happy about that….to hand over to the they have to go gambler man hungry just so that the game can go on.
What is urban? Multiple systems To play the REAL city And for many game ... we need a the city is a Monopoly board with place of security more layers... Firstly, in buildings –the global circuit – elite they don’t move investors fly in, place around so much their bets, take the rewards, and run But what really counts is theThen there’s what ‘moral economy’ –cities are supposed family, community,to do, in the circle sense of doing the of production & right thing consumption – making stuff and selling it Lastly don’t forget that Meanwhile the town cities exist in a global hall tries to to ecology - at the governance - fix moment not very things and manage happily health & education, but
What is urban? Multiple systems• many systems combine into an “urban” system.• Each has different drivers, actors, factors, etc. Global-local financial system• Each can be supportive or destructive of other systems. Urban fixed capital Urban production• Many inter-connections – but – consumption & infrastructure much division & fragmenting system• sustainable development - different systems working together in synergy. Urban governance Urban social- & services system cultural system• E.g... social cohesion + inward investment + strong Global-local governance + ecological ecology system improvement =• Needs creative action, shared intelligence
From information to intelligence experience in sustainable cities since Rio 1992L.A. 21 ??? Intelligence Is this a real debate or just aUrban Intelligence game which is played??foresight??? IntelligencePOLICY & Are the policies connected to KnowledgeSTRATEGY Knowledge economic / political powers?INDICATORS Are the indicators showing real Information progress – & can we define this? Are we only measuring what isMONITORING Data easy to measure?
From information to intelligence experience in sustainable cities since Rio 1992“synergy “Intelligent “Intelligent city” Intelligence “Intelligent adaptive Intelligence city” “Intelligent Intelligence Deliberation city” system” city” “Complex Knowledge “Know” “Knowledge Knowledge Learning adaptive city” system” “Information Information “Complex Gathering city” system” “Monitored Data “technical Processing city” system”
Connected thinkingSo tell me … what’s this ‘Synergy-city’ thing Firstly we need to think about? in a more connected way. Linear thinking is ok for problems with clear solutions… like, how to build a road from A to B. So For more complex & what’s controversial issues wrong you need a more with ‘relational’ kind of that? thinking – more about the ‘synergy’. So you ask - why do we need more roads - what A >>>>>> B kind of city do we ( LINEAR THINKING = “THE ANSWER” ) want – how do people think & feel?
Connected thinking …but isn’t that really difficult –too many things are connected to Well … either you start other things? Where do you from a pre-made theory start? & filter out reality to fit… or you start from reality, & adjust the theory to suit. Hmm … so can you use Of course… to start this to you build the shared design intelligence ... Then real the whole cities? community is the designer & policy- maker, creatively turning problems to opportunities…
Urban foresight – a way forward?Foresight can beseen as a cycle ofabout 3 stages -
Urban foresight – a way forward?But in the urbancase, these areoften pulling indifferent directions StakeholderResearch & capacity& future buildingstudies agendaagenda Strategic planning & management agenda
Urban foresight – a way forward?• Why is the urban‘ foresight / • Urban systems – future studies different to fragmented, incoherent, other foresights? controlled by external forces• E.g.... energy / emissions • Urban governance – gap studies are focused on between political & other technical factors (based on boundaries physics / engineering): • Urban policy – often lacking• But - urban is not only the resources & levers of technical systems (landuse, control: buildings, etc), - but • Context – austerity, relationships (work-home, unemployment, social community / household, local exclusion & disorder, geo- / global, etc). political insecurity
Urban foresight with mapping of relational systems Multiple Multiple Synergicity – questions & interactions & emergence & relational system relational co-evolution of levels thinking creative action, strategic Discourse / thinking, shared“Why” intelligence worldviews / Emotional / values Social community /“what” Factors / themes Functional / Technical technological“who” Actors / stakeholders Material / exchange / Economic enterprise“where” Sectors / places / Life-support / policies species Ecological relations“which” Factors / technology / power & regime institutions Political“how” ‘Vectors’ / processes / interactions
3. Application – urban climate change agenda
Boundaries & horizonsMapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political) CITY CITY-REGION REGION
Example – urban climate policy - overview “Eco-intelligent city” SYNERGY FORESIGHT “urban climate transition” PROCESS “urban climate policy” Shorter term - cost / Shorter term: climate security / disruption robustness / resilience Longer term: - energy Technical supply / climate Longer term: re- impacts / market shifts Economy engineering of buildings & infrastructure Structural pressure: Governanceobsolescence of urban Structural shifts: re- form & function Socio-cultur thinking of urban activity, form & function External drivers / Key systems in urban External outputs / pressures / inputs climate issues impacts
Example – urban climate policy – overview 2 Emer gent FORESIGHT PROCESS Environmt Environmt Economy Economy Governance Governance Socio-cultur Socio-cultur MAPPING OF Environmt SYNERGY - PROBLEMS Economy INTELLIGENCE Governance Socio-cultur SUPPORT SYSTEMS - METHODS & TOOLS
Technical-environment mappingMapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political) Global atmosphere with carbon storage and climate balance Fossil fuel extraction industry Renewable – national / global resources, local & regional Bio-mass & bio-fuel Carbon energy sequestration in soil & biomass Energy Carbon Fossil fuel conversion & embedded reserves power in goods & distribution Carbon net products trade balance of imports / Carbon exports CITY emissions responsibility Urban CITY-REGION via energy buildings & Carbon stored / demand REGION infrastructure embedded in as carbon sink waste to landfill or
Technical-environment intelligence Looking for synergy in technical pathways, multi-function actions, sharedresources , industrial symbiosis, integrated production-consumption chains Global atmosphere as common asset & insurance Renewable resources as Bio-mass & multi-functional bio-fuel landuse energy Zero CO2 Industrial Fossil fuel closed loop symbiosis & reserves as systems closed loop Carbon net conversion design trade balance strategy of imports / Carbon exports CITY emissions Building renewal & responsibility CITY-REGION renovation as CO2 via energy Strategic carbon management demand REGION storage resource
Technical-environment information systemMortgage holders & City / region ESCO management & Social technology investors monitor authorities monitor investment programmes enables networks, carbon flows & carbon flows, with real time energy / initiatives, debates,trades on financial investment & urban carbon analysis wikipedia type info basis management on an area basis MANAGEMENT & TRADING DECISION SUPPORT Downstream BASELINE & BENCHMARKING Infrastructur Upstream Energy / trans Government e services Finance & Social markets enterprise ‘Carbon Carbon intelligence Utilities & intelligence’ Householders infrastructure & consumers Design & Buildings & construction stock Real-time metering Online library of building Buildings, stocks & Householders keep & load management types, ages, conditions, types with online online climate activity enables smart energy technology climate profile, profile. Climate bonus infrastructure with opportunities georeferenced & points can be traded. intermittent sources. searchable
Governance & political ecology mappingMapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political) ‘developed’ urban conflict with global commons ‘developed’ urban conflict with under- developed resource providers Local Local Local Urban- Urban / conflicts in conflicts in conflicts in Local inter- inter- resource hinterland extended conflicts urban regional providers urban area inner conflicts conflicts urban areas
Governance & political ecology intelligence Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political) From - To - “SELF- “ORGANIZED ORGANIZING GOVERNMENT” GOVERNANCE” Policy: Policy: responsive hierarchical & & inter-connected: technocratic: multi-level & multi- within defined functional units & sectors GovernanceRegulation system: 1- system - co-way information flow: production of (with occasional shared intelligence election feedback) Public: pro-active, Public: entrepreneurial, fragmented & resilient & self- passive recipients organized
Economy stakeholder mapping Social / cult relationships Institutional relationships Impotent & short Economic relationships Fragmented & self- termist interested Inefficient & Government bureaucratic Public Chasing money & Civic sector services Fragmented & prestige under-skilled Design & Social & technology communityShort termist & profit seeking Finance Households sector Materialistic & Utilities Inter- short termist mediaries Primary Construction Privatized firms resources maximizing share Producers value Inefficient & backward Old business model loooking based on extract & Interested in profit not dump quality
Economy stakeholder intelligence Social / cultural relationships Municipal green bonds provide Institutional relationships low cost capital upfront, offset ESCOs & Economic relationships by surcharge on local taxes: securitization / extended CERT investment schemes Public procurement for forward investment to kickstart markets Government Public & build critical mass Innovative financial Civic sector services Social agencies mechanisms to enable manage effects on micro-finance etc Design & Social & social housing & technology community neighbourhood Upstream ETS facilities auction revenues Finance used to capitalize Households sectorthe re-engineering Households opt-in to programme Inter- the improvement Utilities scheme with mediaries guarantees on Primary Construction reduction of net Utilities act as inter- resources expenditure.mediaries & ‘deem’ the Producersenergy savings as an Building contractors join upfront capital sum Sustainable resource area consortiums, working management programme Efficiency equipment to efficiency performance for all building materials & manufacturers gain from standards supply chains innovation programme & economies of scale
Socio-cultural – discourse Have you heard thisone? they’re telling uswe’ve got 100 months to save the planet Huh.. believe that, you believe anything. They’re just trying to scare us
Socio-cultural – discourse Have you heard this one? they’re telling us we’ve got 100 months Huh.. believe that, to save the planet you believe anything. The scientists are just trying to scare us so they get more funding But what if the scientists are right and the arctic ice is So – we’ve got the melting and the technology,... when thedeserts are advancing, price is right we’ll use and...and.. it.
Socio-cultural – discourseBut what if the climatecrunch adds up with the credit crunch, food Well I’m not about crunch, population to change my crunch etc... Won’t we lifestyle – I’ve all have to change our worked hard for all lifestyles? this and I’m not going to hand it over to some green-bugged hair-shirted eco- crazy
Socio-cultural – discourseBut what if the climatecrunch adds up with the credit crunch, food shortages, population, Well I’m not about terrorism etc... Won’t to change my we all have to change lifestyle – I’ve our lifestyles? worked hard for all this and I’m not going to hand it over to some green-bugged hair-shirted eco- crazy In fact have you heard of this thing sus… sus… sustainability?? That’s precisely it!! It’s a global media conspiracy to keep people like you & me in suspense & paranoia
Socio-cultural – discourse Govt will give “We would all us £3 billion (“Red Ken”) be better off” Good for those Socialism - back “just look at without cars door Barcelona” Pollution & Bureaucracy climate change gone mad Roads will be Inconvenience better too “Freedom of the road” Cost – can’t “we already afford it pay our taxes”Cost of running the scheme “Public trans” no thanks “Public trans” “Public trans” should (for losers) sort it out
Foresight for synergicityProcesses - Results –• Foresight futures strand – • Multi-actor, multi-lateral, multi- aims to enhance shared level entrepreneurial action.... intelligence, shared learning e.g. local partnerships, strategic etc ... networks• Foresight capacity strand • Creative responses to – aims to enhance transitions and building of intellectual capital & resilience & adaptive capacity synergy • Creative entrepreneurial /• Foresight strategy strand participative mode of – aims to apply these to governance with strategic governance & policy (public intelligence. / private / civic.. )
4. Putting it together
One Planet City Pathways (agendas for institutional economy transformation)a) Public sector: stewardship Governme procurement Civic nt Public pathway: for stability sector services Public & strategic planning: Science & procure Social technology pathway enterpriseb) Financial sector: stakeholder finance Finance Innovation Household pathway: re- sector pathway s engaging capital with communities, Infrastruct Overseas Stakeholder employees & Finance ure environment: Primary pathway Tertiary (Innovation & resources servicesc) Science & social Secondary enterprise industry technology sector:pathways not Innovation / shown) enterprise pathway: opportunity seeking
One Planet City Pathways (agendas for institutional economy transformation)d) Business sector: service chain Governme nt pathway: advance Civic Public sector services investment & leasing model along the Science & Social supply chain: technology enterprise Fair tradee) Civic sector: social pathway enterprise pathway: Finance sector Service Household s mobilizing the energy chain & commitment of pathway citizens & Overseas Social Infrastruct ure communities: enterprise Primary pathway Tertiaryf) Development & trade resources services sector: fair trade Secondary industry pathway: engaging with overseas development & global strategy.
Local development intelligence example of local food scheme at www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.ukfactors of success:• Space for creative Landscape action & debate owners &• Public / private / managers social collaboration Municipalities Farmers & investment• Multi-level self- organizing governance systems NGOs & social enterprise• Knowledge and Education & learning networks health• Innovation & enterprise culture Local• Policy democracy intermediation and Local markets enabling of inter- mediaries SMEs & tourism
Local development intelligence example of local food scheme at www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.ukClimate benefits Landscape owners & managers Climate adaptation Municipalities Farmers strategies Local renewable energy NGOs & social enterprise Education & Climate resilience health through social cohesion Local democracy Reduction in food Local markets chain miles & processing impacts SMEs & tourism
ICT application of synergy mapping www.suregen.co.uk Relational view Informational view Strong links & synergy NewDiscourse / potential Social within a levelworldviews / links learning values between environ Emergence (‘WHY’) levels ment (SLE) of Factors / which collective themes builds up intelligenc Weak links e between ‘WHICH’ Specific links levels items on Actors / the networks platform/stakeholders (‘WHO’) Sectors / places (‘WHERE’) Factors / technology / regime (‘WHAT’) ‘Vectors’ / processes / opportunities (‘HOW’)
ICT – social-tech templates (i.e. these are templates / apps which customize standard platforms for workbench applications… )Social-tech Social-tech Social-tech knowledge platforms ‘templates’ community “library” Discourse (youtube) Media template for urban issues Policy themes / Factors options (SLE-wiki) Policy best practices / library Actors – Social forum / (facebook) themes Social forum / places Places (PPGIS) GIS policy layers GIS analytics / Dynamics functions (Ebay etc) Social valuations / priority choice Each type of knowledge This is like a combination template, Social auctions / level tends to have its to be fitted to each type of crowd investment own community… organization / role: containing links to the specific templates. A series of prototype mockups could be mounted with dummy links…
Case study a) streethome zoneSocial-tech To external platforms users Discourse Images / stories / images / (youtube) stories / media (external) media (newly Factors Coordination created) Policy & with funding / (SLE-wiki) practice other policy review levels Social forum Actors – on events / Social forum (facebook) Social forum meetings / on local on options & issues project go- needs & priorities ahead Places ideas Spatial Local spatial (PPGIS) analysis – design opports / options & Dynamics constraints limits Value testing Investment Social (Ebay etc) by virtual testing with investment - auction / financial / sale of priority social value certificates choice auction
Case study b) towncentre regeneration(with multiple forums including investors / landlords) To external Social-tech users platforms Images / Discourse stories / images / (youtube) media stories / (external) media (newly Coordination created) Factors Policy & with funding / practice other policy (SLE-wiki) review levels Investors Investors forum Investors forum forum needs Actors – options & business case & ideas (MULTIPLE) priorities Social forum (facebook) Social forum on on local options & project go- needs & ideas priorities ahead Places Spatial design Local spatial (PPGIS) analysis – options & opports / limits Dynamics constraints Value testing Investment Commercial (Ebay etc) by virtual testing with investment for auction / financial / common priority choice social value assets auction
Greater Manchester• Greater Manchester Policy • Some short term Exchange was based on a improvements are possible, scheme with aims: depending on resources:• Develop a model Foresight process, around knowledge • Policy / research theme transfer and mutual learning analysis report, produced prior between research & policy to workshop• Provide a platform for research • Policy / research theme dissemination and policy briefing produced after the organizational change workshop• Pave the way for specific • Development of on-line research-policy collaborations resources, links to researchers in the future & projects, links to teaching• programmes etc.
Greater Manchester - themes• Climate change / low carbon • Environment & economic economics & markets development• Air quality, transport, health: • Environment & regeneration• Water quality, resources, • Environment & finance sectors• Resource efficiency and waste • Environment & retail sectors• Land use and land quality • Environment & public services• Feeding the city-region • Environment & demographic &• Constructing the city-region social change• Mobilising the city-region • Environment & new technology• Peak oil and the city-region • Environment & Education• Sustainable tourism, leisure • Multi-cultural social cohesion &• Sustainable events the environment• Sustainable consumption & production:
Alternative models• Café Scientifique model: this • Institutional model : (e.g. might enlarge and extend the Malmo): a dedicated GMEC policy exchange main partnership organization, with meetings so far: general funding & specific mission for introductions / overviews & active research-policy and agenda setting from both sides teaching-training-policy• Foresight model: (as trialled at collaboration, on a number of the GMEC first session): this levels, organized around the aims at participative core theme of ‘sustainable stakeholder-focused urban development’. technically informed • Thematic model (e.g. exploration of a multi-level Freiburg): focused on a theme or policy question. (e.g. thematic cluster of research UK foresight at the OSI). programmes & projects in sustainable urban development
Possible risks & barriersPRACTICAL • STRUCTURAL• Cost of doing anything in finance / human resource• Universities are not organized to meet policy requirements, and work on different level.• Policy-makers go to consultants if they need expert & timely advice ‘to order’• Uncertainties for all public organizations & priority of short term survival.
University of British Columbia• Social Capacity building • This example also ties in a model: (e.g. UBC, Vancouver): large scale physical a combined programme of demonstration of a low carbon knowledge resources / zero waste campus: organized technical tools / learning in 2 parallel streams - campus processes / research as a living laboratory of programmes / stakeholder sustainability (CLL), and capacity building programmes: university as agent of change• based on ‘relational in the community (AOC) knowledge’ concept (i.e. that (www.sustain.ubc.ca). useful knowledge is a co- production process more than a report on a shelf or paper in the library).
University of British Columbia Content Channels Modes of Engagement Evaluation Workshops Public Events / Social Media Greenest City 2020 Goals Mobile • Attend Applications • Join • Subscribe • Monitoring Tabletop • Play • VotingPublic Games • Express • Survey • Converse • Interviews • Contribute Online Fora • Create Performance Art Q1. Who is invited and Q2. How do they participate? Q3. How do different media Q4. What are their policy who participates? support their engagement? preferences?
Intelligent cities in practice• GOALS - Shared • ENTREPRENEURIAL intelligence – creative INTELLIGENCE: looks for innovation networks: plus added value in social / responsive structures & ecological / financial innovation organizations • PARTNERSHIP• RESOURCES – INTELLIGENCE : look for emerging forms of opportunities in ‘communities of network / ‘meshwork’ interest’ - organizations & governance & investment networks• PROCESSES - • COGNITIVE INTELLIGENCE: Institutions, policies, enhance functional information programmes, to enable & & learning for shared tasks: ( promote creative ICT /social tech can help…. ) innovation.
Applications - urban intelligence Wow - so this iseco-intelligence in Basically it’s about action !! .. and connections. We connecthow does it work? between different parts of the ecological cycle. Then we connect these with different layers of the economic system. The whole city decides, in a deliberative eco- Ok but - who intelligence foresightgets to decide network …. With this we on these can begin to reduceconnections - extreme differences of and what if wealth and poverty, with there are a better balance of winners or economic, social and losers? ecological systems.
Thank you... (thinking in progress) “Environment and“World’s largest feasibility the City” - critical “World’s largest study” – linking spatial, perspectives on the organization strategy” – economy, environment, urban environment shared intelligence for the society, governance. around the world relational economy
Applications of Wi-We approach From action towards shared intelligence S.T.I. POLICY: apply to research programmes, research methods, knowledge systems Strategic FORWARD PLANNING: knowledge apply to institution / program / Strategic policy project management systems RISK MANAGEMENT: StrategicScanning for relevant weak signals: apply to risk / hazard / managementexploring ambiguous vulnerability / resilience Exploring potential information on wild wild cards: with , cards with shorter/ longer ‘wild situations’ longer term change shorter termPAS change FUTURE T
"Urban Foresight as a Tool to Help Decision-making"• 1. Comment peut-on aujourdhui 1. Long term vs short term identifier des enjeux de long terme • Focus on futures / prospectives / alors que nombreux sont ceux qui wild cards to explore the dynamics pensent que la difficulté de percevoir le changement lointain of the short term.... Create multi- saccroît ? functional / multi-actor value chains• 2. Comment peut-on aujourdhui which link short to long term construire des visions collectives 2. Collective vs anonymous? pour un avenir commun dans des • Creative thinking emerging from métropoles de plus en plus fragmented communities to find peuplées mais qui nous paraissent pourtant de plus en opportunities on multiple levels plus anonymes ? 3. Grassroots vs higher levels?• 3. Comment peut-on aujourdhui • urban foresight for collaborative articuler ces enjeux de long terme strategy ... which builds value et ces visions collectives pour chains between decision-makers & construire des stratégies crédibles others ... ‘meshworks’ from et appropriables par les grands networks. décideurs ?
Actors Whose problems / opportunities? Governanc Financial e & public Social sector sector sector ConsumerBusiness s& sector citizens Energy / Infra carbon Science & structure technology
Sectors Which parts of the economy & society are involved? Financial Procurement services (publicFarming & services)food chain Non-profit / social sectorTransport Households Manufacturin (final g demand) Retail & Energy & Construction distribution utilities & engineering
Factors What are the driving forces / pressures / underlying conditions? Internation Fiscal al policyEnergy / agreement frameworkcarbon s Communitmarkets y & social enterpriseEmployment & skills Public attitudes Innovation Investment & for technology infrastructu deployment re
Specific issuesStrategy issues: Infrastructure issues• Energy / carbon • Embedded energy / CHP scenarios & modelling • Grid smartening • Public transportMarket issues: • Electric cars• Carbon pricing for policy• ETS Social issues• CRC • Public attitudes &• Labelling / benchmark / awareness raising footprinting • Resources & enabling• Public procurement • Household investment & return
Issue / knowledge mapping• This aims at a practical • What are the key output & outcome ‘issues’ ? – (questions,• Follows a ‘mapping’ debates, uncertainties, approach in subgroups…. dilemmas) (as encouraged by • What do we need to facilitators ) know from the ‘other• This responds to inputs: side’ ?- (i.e. policy / 10 minute briefings from research) experts on each side. • How to take these Each briefing should issues forward ? - focus on 3 strands - (practical actions)
Example – climateadaptation agenda 1• Building up a ‘mapping’ of this complex agenda• Starts with the practical - the city- region and its buildings (housing / commercial)• Thinks about climate impacts• Thinks about driving forces
Example – climateadaptation agenda 2• Adds on specific climate change pressures• Adds on ‘responses’ – design, planning, engineering, infrastructure, building usages
Example – climateadaptation agenda 3• Adds on external context – economic, social, political…• Adds on underlying factors – social, cultural, organizational, etc…
Example – climateadaptation agenda 4• Identify the areas where policy has good knowledge• Identify the areas where policy needs better knowledge
Example – climateadaptation agenda 5• Explore issues where research has good knowledge• Explore issues where research needs better knowledge
Example – climateadaptation agenda 6• Putting it together – identify areas of opportunity for exchange & further action• Specific policy issues, e.g.green infrastructure, Indicator 188 etc• Specific research issues, e.g. social resilience, critical infrastructure, stock management etc.
Climate mitigation agenda • Trends, targets and• Built environment challenges: (global issues (planning, targets & agreements, housing, property, national / regional construction, targets, risks, resilience, infrastructure) innovation• Economic and social issues (environment sector, • “the greatest market carbon markets, failure in the world” .. lifestyle & • “100 months to save the community) planet”… • “4 degrees by 2060 ?”
Foresight methods & Wi-We resources Emergent (‘antici - pating’) Success / Scenario normative Road-mapping / development: scenario: apply policy scenario: apply wild cards wild cards as scan weak Strategic as checks on reality & signals for Scoping futures: planning: reality & robustness opportunities & generate wild continuous Wi- robustness checks threats cards to test We scans to boundaries: enhance sharedconfirm & validate longer intelligencewith weak signals term Ongoing resource change shorter term development with Scoping capacities: periodic Wi-We scan weak signals to Form strategies & scans for shared assess resources, action programs intelligence Strengths & Explore Develop Weaknesses potential for opportunities with weak signals capacity with combined of Opportunities development, Wi-We reality & Threats with wild card testing
What is a city? Concept mapWhat is an urban system Learning / foresight / synergicity Technical CO2 Technical CO2 mapping intelligence Economic & Economic & value mapping value intelligence Governance & Governance institution intelligence Socio-cultural Socio-cultural mapping intelligence Systems of data / information / knowledge / intelligence
Policy integration – local example www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.ukROLE OF ECONOMIC Landscape PLANNING …. owners & managers• Public / private / Municipalities Farmers social collaboration & investment• Knowledge NGOs & social networking enterprise Education &• Innovation & health enterprise Local• Enabler & facilitator: democracy Local markets• Steward of resources: SMEs & tourism
Policy integration – climate benefits www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.ukClimate benefits Landscape owners & Climate managers adaptation Municipalities Farmers strategies Local renewable energy NGOs & social enterprise Education & Climate resilience health through social cohesion Local Reduction in food democracy chain miles & Local markets processing impacts SMEs & tourism
Synergicity & relational thinking Synergicity – capacity for emergence of creative action, strategic thinking & shared intelligence Co-intelligence “INTELLIGENT ADAPTIVE SYSTEM” Co-evolution “COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM” Co-production “COMPLEX SYSTEM” Shorter term Robustness / resilience pressure for shorter term ResponsesLonger term Adaptive capacity & feedbacks change for longer termStructural Conscious & strategic shifts innovation External Who / what / External STEEP drivers / why levels levels outputs / pressures impacts / inputs (Co-dependency) RELATIONAL SYSTEM
Cultural theoryGeneral outline of human types in cultural theory. (‘NGO’ = ‘non governmental organization’). Source: adapted from Douglas & Wildavsky 1986; Thomson 1994. certainty style & risk averse CONSUMERS & PUBLIC SECTOR: FATALISTS HIERARCHISTS individualist collectivist approach approach PRIVATE SECTOR: NGO SECTOR: PIONEERS EGALITARIANS uncertainty style & risk
Synergicity & relational thinking• CONCEPT: • METHOD:• Synergicity – • Relational-Emergent “collaborative capital” – Mapping (REM) for analysis co-evolutionary capacity of problems, & creative for creative action, solutions. strategic thinking & • ‘relational’ systems – based shared intelligence. (i.e. on inter-connections and ‘capacity to move towards inter-dependency; synergy in working • ‘emergent’ systems – based together & thinking on capacity for self- together’). organization & co-evolution• towards shared intelligence.
Greater Manchester• Each of the major • unique opportunity for the environmental problems is research universities to challenging – there are many contribute to the test bed of unresolved questions & Greater Manchester: and controversies – scientific, likewise for the policy social, economic and political; experience to contribute to the• Greater Manchester has one of research capability. the largest concentrations of • The GM Environment environment / climate / energy Commission Policy Exchange expertise in Europe. It is also programme is a first step aiming to be a leader in towards a longer term model environment / sustainability for collaborative learning and policy. knowledge-based innovation, between researchers & teachers, and policymakers & stakeholders in the city-region.