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Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011
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Analýza výdavkov na reklamu, Ján Havelka (GroupM), LOTE 2011


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  • From a 6.6% global fall in 2009.This is similar to economic growth in 2010.Surprises in 2010: double-digit recovery in mature markets such as Canada, Australia, Sweden, which avoided the worst effects of the banking crisis; a USD 1.5 bn bounce in the UK, the best of the big Europeans by far, but it had dropped USD 2 bn in 09; and the first contribution in five years from Japan. We have the US lagging the pack this year. We have US TV growing at between 4 and 5 led by local spot (esp. auto and political), and internet between plus 10 and 11, but everything else is still flat or negative, especially newspapers, producing an average of plus 1 in 2010. This is however a five-point upward revision from our forecast in autumn 2009.
  • Again in line with economic growth. The big threats are Eurozone crisis, sluggish US job creation, and a trade or currency war between debtor countries and creditor countries. This forecast incorporates US growth of 3.7%, leading W Europe at 2.5%. W Europe is the slowest-growing region in our forecast because it faces the strongest headwinds against consumer demand.
  • Circa 6% growth for 2011 would take global ad investment to a new record of just over USD 500bn.
  • Kantar category monitoring measures media occupancy and should only be regarded as directional on dollars. Jan-Sep that direction was pushing at double-digit dollar growth worldwide. A year ago we thought this was going to be a flat year. It turned into a big and broad-based bounce. The 09 collapse was heavily concentrated into the financial and auto sectors. In Kantar’s directional dollars, auto came back 23% and finance 13% in Jan-Sep 2010 and together they formed a quarter of the global recovery in that period. Half of these new dollars were recorded in the old world, half in the new. Personal care and beverage together contributed a third of all new ad dollars this year. Most of this arose in the new world. Food and communications contributed 10% of growth, the vast majority arising in the old world.
  • North America – USA advertisers have will and means to raise marketing investmentW Europe – fiscal tightening worth 1% of GDP in 2011. Some World Cup effect. Euro 2012 and summer Olympics will help correct this. CEE still over-dependent on Russia and Turkey: Poland recovery 6% in 2011 still weak relative to economy. AsPac – tailing-off mainly caused by China, cooling from +13 in 2010 to +11 in 2011 as 2010 events wash through (Asia Games, World Cup, Shanghai Expo).
  • 60% of this growth will come from these eight countries, and 33% from the four BRIC countries alone. The new world could in fact contribute 60+% of new growth in 2011 even though it is only 36% of total global output. Countries to the left adding USD 1bn to 1.5 bnChina and USA each adding USD 5bn. 5bn is nearly one in every five net new ad dollars we expect in 2011
  • We forecast TV to add about USD 14bn in 2011 – half of all growth. It is a new world story. Three-quarters of all new TV dollars arise in the new world. 85% of internet adex is old-world, losing a point or two to the new world every year. Measured internet ad investment should add 37% of global growth in 2011. Measured internet will pass $80bn and it is already the world’s third medium after TV and newspapers. At present run rate will be no.2 some time in 2012, and perhaps already is if you allow for unmeasured elements like SEO, analytics and content creation.
  • CEE region striped from Russia, Ukraine and Turkey slips heavily in 2009 and did not bounced back that well - stays within the bunch of Western Europe and North America.
  • Slovakianresults /growth/ were over the more developedcountriessuch Hu, Cze in pre-crisis, sincethen SVK belongs to themarketswithsmallerrebound, stayingsignificantlybelowtheinvestmentbreak-even in 2010.
  • Poland getting higher share every year. While in early periods expenditures were reduced at the expense of Baltic countries and Romania, in 2010 a decrease of share is evident also in CZ/SK countries.
  • Overall internet spends an impressive growth from 2% to more than 16% (still w/t SEO, Mobile, Social/CRM investment, worth of 2-4% points more) within a decade. TV also fared well and keeps the position of the key media vehicle, able even to strengthen the results (crisis actually helps due to priority investments)
  • Slovak media split shows average % of TV investment, stronger OOH share and Newspaper while being seriously below the Internet shares, even from CEE benchmark POV.
  • Slovak TV shareisbelowaveragesomewhere in themiddleofSelectedregionalmarkets.
  • Internet investment expected to exceed 16% of measured media in 2011. This does not include largely unmeasured fields e.g. moblile, social, SEO, content creation and analytics, which could account for another 2 to 4 percentage points. Western Europe runs a little above the global average. All the regions to the left of Western Europe are substantially below. CEE Internetshare at12%; WE 17%; N America 20%. UK an outlier at nearly 32%.
  • Transcript

    • 1. This year, nextyearDecember 2010
    • 2. 2010 global forecast 5.9%
    • 3. 2011 global forecast 5.8%
    • 4. 2011 global forecast $500bn
    • 5. Broad-based recoveryJan-Sep 10 vs. 09504540353025 200920 20101510 GroupM/Kantar Media
    • 6. The recovery by region 2010 2011 North America 2 4 Lat Am 14 11 W Europe 4 3 CEE 11 11 CEE excl. Turkey, 0 3.8 Russia & Ukraina AsPac 10 8 World 5.9 5.8
    • 7. Contributions to 2011USD billion6543210 Canada Russia Indonesia India Brazil Japan China USA-1
    • 8. Contributions to 2011USD billion151311 9 7 5 3 1-1 Radio OOH Print Internet TV
    • 9. Ad spend by regions past decade Real media growth (% yoy); fixed USD rate (at Y2K)25.020.0 18.515.010.0 10.1 11.7 8.6 8.9 8.7 7.7 5.0 6.1 3.2 0.0 -1.3 -5.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f-10.0-15.0-20.0 -20.2-25.0 NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA WESTERN EUROPE CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Russia, Ukraine and Turkey ASIA-PACIFIC (all)
    • 10. Ad spend by regions past decade Real media growth (% yoy), fixed USD rate (at Y2K) 20.0 15.0 10.0 8.1 7.9 5.0 4.4 0.0 1.4 -5.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f -6.7-10.0-15.0 -16.2-20.0-25.0 WORLD CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic
    • 11. Growing Poland importanceMedia investment growth (USD)70% 64%60%50% 46% 41% 43% Czech Republic Estonia40% Hungary Latvia30% Lithuania Poland20% Romania Slovak Republic10% 6% 7% 6% 5% 0% 2007 2010F 2011F Marginal increase-10%
    • 12. Investment by media typeWorld´s averaged media mix100.0 1.9 90.0 16.4 80.0 17.2 70.0 10.4 Internet 60.0 29.6 OOH 18.1 50.0 Magazines 40.0 Newspapers 30.0 Radio 20.0 39.1 43.5 TV 10.0 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
    • 13. Regional view on media split100% Internet, 12.2 Internet, 9.290% Internet, 16.4 OOH, 8.6 OOH, 13.080% OOH, 5.970% Magazines, 10.4 Magazines, 11.4 Magazines, 15.560% Newspapers, 10.9 Newspapers, 18.1 Newspapers, 10.650% Radio, 7.2 Radio, 5.4 Radio, 7.140%30% TV, 48.5 TV, 43.920% TV, 43.510% 0% WORLD CEE SLOVAKIA
    • 14. TV´s share of ad spend: CEE region70.0 62.1 63.460.0 50.150.0 48.5 48.2 CEE 46.3 42.6 43.9 Estonia Hungary40.0 35.3 Czech Republic 30.0 Slovak Republic30.0 Latvia Lithuania20.0 Poland Romania Slovenia10.0 0.0 CEE Estonia Hungary Czech Slovak Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Slovenia Republic Republic
    • 15. Internet’s share of ad spend 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
    • 16. Summary of TYNY Adex reviewGlobal view CEE/Slovakia– 2010 shows relatively solid rebound – CEE region loosing its „emerging“ status (5.9), sustainable rate of growth in terms of AdEx growth (3.8) predicted also in 2011 (5.8) – Poland´s prospect brighter, outshine– 65% of new investment goes into „New budget from other regional countries World“ – Slovakian rebound is weaker compared to– dominant share of TV and Internet with other CEE countries ; Efficiency of scale new adex; Internet in Old, TV spend in issue new world – Slovak Internet investment share (9%) still lower, even compared to CEE average (12%); – OOH and magazines investment fare better than regional figures