This presentation addresses the impact of the economy on the senior housing consumer and is based on telephone surveys completed in March of 2008 and 2009 and 42 focus groups completed in the 12 months between the two surveys. I\'d be interested in your thoughts and feedback.

1. What Our Prospects Are
Thinking Right Now!
Michael J. Starke
Vice es de o esea c
V ce President of Research
April 7, 2009

2. Overview
30 days
300 h
households
h ld
9 different geographic markets
12 months
42 focus groups
22 different geographic markets
45 minutes

3. Overview
• Methodology
• Respondents
• View of the Economy
• Financial Situation
• Retirement Plans
R ti t Pl
• Sense of the Future
• Impact on Their Buying Behavior
• Reaching Our Consumer

4. Methodology
• Telephone Survey (Second Annual)
– Age 70+ with Incomes of $35,000 or more
$35 000
– Surveys conducted between March 5-21, 2009
– 300 completed interviews (95% Conf. +5 7%)
Conf +5.7%)
– Sample drawn from the Mid-
Atlantic, Southeast, Southwest,
West and Northwest Regions
– Survey completed by Discovery
Research, Li l NE
R h Lincoln,

5. Characteristics of Respondents
Percent of Respondents by Age
39%
40%
34%
35%
28%
30%
24% 24%24%
25%
20%
2008
15% 2009
8% 9%
10% 7%
3%
5%
0% 0%
0%
< 70 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85 > RTA
Age
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

6. Characteristics of Respondents
Percent of Respondents by Income
50% 46%
45% 40%
40%
35% 30%
30%
25% 2008
18% 2009
20% 16%
14%
15% 11%
9% 9%
10%
3%
5% 2% 2%
0%
<$35,000 $35,000 ‐ $50,000 ‐ $100,000 ‐ $150,000> RTA
$49,999 $99,999 $149,999
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

7. Characteristics of Respondents
Percent of Respondents by Tenure
88%
90% 85%
80%
70%
60%
50% 2008
40% 2009
30%
20% 12%
7% 5%
10% 3%
0%
Own a home
Own a home Own a condominium
Rent a house, condominium or apartment
Own a condominium
Rent a house condominium or apartment
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

8. Characteristics of Respondents
Percent of Respondents by Home Value
40% 36%
35%
30%
25%
19%
20% 2009
15% 12%
10%
9% 9%
10%
5%
5%
0%
<$150,000 $150,000 ‐ $300,000 ‐ $400,000 ‐ $500,000> DK RTA
$299,999 $399,999 $499,999
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

9. Characteristics of Respondents
Likely to Move
60% 57%
50%
40%
30% 25% 24%
2008
20% 16% 2009
12% 13%
9% 8%
10% 5%7% 6%
4% 3% 3% 2%4%
0%
Not at 2 3 4 5 6 Very DK
all Likely
Likely
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

10. Characteristics of Respondents
Type of Housing if Moving
74%
Retirement Community 84%
8%
Condominium 10%
2009
9% 2008
Different House 3%
9%
Don't Know 3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

11. Current View of the Economy
Compare Economy to 24 Months Ago
96%
Worse 83%
4%
Same 2009
16%
2008
1%
Better 1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

12. Impact on Financial Situation
Change in Income Since 2008
12%
Increased 6%
54%
Same
S 84%
33%
Decreased 4% 2009
2008
1%
DK 0%
0%
RTA 5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

13. Impact on Financial Situation
Change in Home Value Since 2008
9%
Increased 25%
22%
Same 37%
2009
62% 2008
Decreased
D d 30%
7%
DK 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

14. Impact on Financial Situation
Change in Portfolio Value Since 2008
2%
Increased 7%
14%
Same
S 55%
81%
Decreased 27% 2009
2008
1%
DK 8%
2%
RTA 3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

15. Impact on Retirement Plans
Impact of Economy on Retirement Living Plans
36%
None 43%
20%
Little
Littl 27%
29%
Somewhat 22% 2009
2008
13%
Great 6%
2%
DK 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

16. Impact on Retirement Plans
Change in Income/Assets on Retirement Living
Plans
60% 56%
53%
50%
40%
30% 2008
20% 2009
13%
9% 7% 8% 9%
10% 4%6% 5% 4%6% 4% 6%
2% 3% 2%2%
0%
No 2 3 4 5 6 Great DK RTA
Impact Impact
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

17. Impact on Retirement Plans
Perception of Financial Security in a CCRC
40%
40%
35%
30%
30%
25% 23%
19%
20% 2008
15% 12% 12% 2009
11%
10% 8% 8% 7%
6%5% 6% 5%
5% 2% %
1% 1%2%
0%
Least 2 3 4 5 6 Most DK RTA
Secure Secure
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

18. Sense of the Future of Economy
• CBS/New York Times Poll (All Ages - February,
2009)
– 8% think economy is getting better
– 40% think it is staying the same
– 51% think it is getting worse
– 66% think the recession
will last 2 years or more

19. Sense of the Future of Economy
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Index
70.0
60.0
50.0
50 0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Mar ‐ Apr ‐ May ‐ Jun ‐ Jul ‐ Aug ‐ Sep ‐ Oct ‐ Nov ‐ Dec ‐ Jan ‐ Feb ‐ Mar ‐
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09r 09p
Consumer Confidence Expectations Age 55+ Consumer Confidence
Consumer Conference Index, Expectations Index and Age 55+ Consumer Confidence Index are Registered Trademarks of The Conference Board, 2009

20. Sense of the Future of Economy
If Home Value Decreased When Do You Think
Your Home Will Regain Lost Value
60% 56%
50%
40%
30%
20% 13% 13% 14%
10% 4%
0%
2009 2010 2011 or Later Never RTA
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

21. Sense of the Future of Economy
When Do You Think Economy Will Start
Improving?
39%
40%
35%
30% 27%
25% 22%
20%
15%
8%
10%
4%
5%
0%
2009 2010 2011 or Later Never RTA
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

22. Impact on Buying Behavior
• In 2008 - ____ (+6 9%) of respondents reported that
(+6.9%)
they were not going to move because of the economy
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

23. Impact on Buying Behavior
• In 2008 - 2 3% (+6.9%) of respondents reported that
2.3% (+6 9%)
they were not going to move because of the economy
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

24. Impact on Buying Behavior
• In 2008 - 2 3% (+6.9%) of respondents reported that
2.3% (+6 9%)
they were not going to move because of the economy
• In 2009 - 27.0% (+5.7%) of
respondents reported that they
p p y
were not going to move
because of the economy
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

25. Impact on Buying Behavior
• In 2008 - ____ (+6.9%) of respondents reported they
were going to delay their move because of the
economy
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

26. Impact on Buying Behavior
• In 2008 - 6.3% (+6.9%) of respondents reported they
were going to delay their move because of the
economy
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

27. Impact on Buying Behavior
• In 2008 - 6.3% (+6.9%) of respondents reported they
were going to delay their move because of the
economy
• In 2009 - 47 3% (+5.7%) of respondents reported they
47.3% (+5 7%)
were going to delay their move because of the
economy
SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum

28. Impact on Buying Behavior
UNCERTAIN
SCARED
FROZEN
Edvard Munch, The Scream, 1893

29. Reaching Our Consumer
Denial & Isolation

30. Reaching Our Consumer
C Denial &
Community Isolation
y

31. Reaching Our Consumer
Anger
g

32. Reaching Our Consumer
Anger
gListening
g

33. Reaching Our Consumer
Bargaining

34. Reaching Our Consumer
Bargaining
Peer Support

35. Reaching Our Consumer
Depression

36. Reaching Our Consumer
Community
Depression
of Peers

37. Reaching Our Consumer
Acceptance
p

38. Questions/Comments
Q estions/Comments