1. Climate Change Concerns and Emerging
Challenges for Water and Food Security of Pakistan
Ghazanfar Ali
Head Water Resources Section
Regional Workshop on Climate Change, Food and Water Security
24 – 25 February, 2011, Colombo, Sri Lanka

2. Outline
 Regional Settings
 Some Characteristics of Pakistan’s Water
Resources
 Past & Projected Climate Changes w.r.t. Pakistan
 Vulnerability of Water and Food Security
 GCISC Studies on Impact of Climate Change on
Water and Agriculture
 Some Adaptation Possibilities/Way Forward
2

3. The South Asian Region: A hot spot or many hot spots

4. Principal Rivers of the Himalayan Region
River Name Length (km) Mean Glacier Melt in River
Discharge Flow (%)
(m³/s)
Yangtze 6,300 34,000 18.5
Brahmaputra 2,948 19,824 12.3
Ganges 2,057 18,691 9.1
Irrawaddy 2,170 13,565 Small
Mekong 4,600 11,048 6.6
Indus 2,900 5,533 44.8
Salween 2,800 1,494 8.8
Yellow 5,464 1,365 1.3
Tarim 2,030 146 40.2

6. Countries Financially Vulnerable to Extreme Weather Events

7. South Asia: Induced
Vulnerability
(Climate Change/Variability)
• Two thirds of the disasters, region
experiences, are climate related
(Cyclone, Floods, Drought /
Desertification, GLOFs)
• Phenomenal increase in their
frequency, severity and
unpredictability in the recent times
• Climate Risk – on the Rise

8. Basic Features of South Asian Economies
India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal
Population (millions) 1081.23 19.22 149.66 157.32 2.57
Per capita GDP (US$) 538 976 371 547 240
Share of Agriculture in GDP
22 17 22 23 40
(%)
Water use in agriculture (%) 87 96 96 96 96
Cereals Production – Share 10.2 1.8 0.3
0.1 1.3
in World (%)
Proportion of people
20 22 30 23 17
undernourished (%)
Cereal Requirement
-1 - -5 -25 -
Status by 2025 (%)

9. Some Characteristics
of
Pakistan’s Water Resources

10. Some Characteristic of Pakistan‘s Water Resources
Year 1951 2003 2007 2020
 Water Availability Per Capita (m3)
(projected)
Availability 5650 1200 1100 855
 IRS Inflows
Annual In Kharif In Rabi
( Apr-Sep) ( Oct-Mar)
Average 137.87 MAF 82% 18%
Maximum 218.1 MAF
Minimum 97 MAF
 Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)
 Original : 18.4 MAF (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)
 Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)
 Projected 2010 : 12.4 MAF (≈ 9 % of Average Annual Flows)
 Downstream Kotri Annual Discharges
 Average : 35 MAF
 Maximum (in 1994-95) : 92 MAF
 Minimum (in 2000-01) : 0.77 MAF
10
Source of data: WAPDA

11. Pakistan Remote Inflow Measurements Stations
Indus at Jhelum at
Kalabagh Mangla
Chenab at
Marala
Ravi at
Balloki
Sutlej at
Sulemanki

12. Upper Indus Basin Glaciers

13. The Karakoram Glaciers
 There are more than 5000 glaciers having areal
coverage of about 15000 km2 in River Indus
Catchment
 Total Ice Reserve Estimate of UIB is about 2200
MAF of Water Equivalent
 The largest 23 glaciers account for about 60% of the
glacier area.
 These glaciers are born within an elevation zone of
5000 – 7000 meters above sea level.
 Above 70% of River flows are generated from UIB
Snow and Glacier melt
 Annual glacier melt (1962 – 2009) average in River
Indus at Tarbela is about 40 MAF

14. Projected Implications on Indus River Flows due to
Melting of HKH Glaciers
(Reported by Some Recent Studies)
 IPCC AR4 (2007)
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase
flooding within next two to three decades. This will be
followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.
 World Bank (2006)
Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years
causing increase of Indus River flows. then the glacier
reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up
to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.
14

16. Vulnerability of Water and Food Security

17. Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan
 Key sectors: Water and Agriculture at greatest risk;
 Increased variability of Monsoon due to ENSO events
becoming stronger and more frequent in a warmer climate;
 Increased risks of floods and landslides, droughts, typhoons and
tropical storms, forest fires etc. due to increase in frequency and
intensity of extreme events;
 Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions
due to reduced rainfall, increased temp., and depletion of soil
moisture – May lead to expansion of deserts;
060212/0018

18. Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan (Contd.)
 More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers due to increase in
temp. and seasonal variability of precipitation – May lead to
increased summer flows in Indus river system for a few
decades, followed by reduction in flows as Glaciers
disappear;
 Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in
snowline on mountains with increase in surface temp. –
May increase risk of floods during the wet season;
 Agriculture productivity likely to suffer severe losses due to
high temp., droughts, flood conditions and soil degradation
– Would endanger food security of the country;
060212/0019

19. Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan (Contd.)
 As a result of sea level rise, large scale inundation of coastline
and recession of flat sandy beaches; upstream incursion of
saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral
reefs and breeding grounds of fish;
 Enhanced risk to life and property in coastal areas due to
increased intensity of tropical cyclones, combined with sea level
rise; High risk for Karachi;
 Large reduction in productivity of both warm water and cold
water fish due to oxygen depletion in aquatic systems;
060212/0020

20. Major CC-related Concerns of
Pakistan (Contd.)
 Higher incidence of Malaria and other vector-borne, water-
borne and heat-related diseases due to warmer and wetter
conditions;
 Risk to fragile ecology of Mountain and Highland systems
due to synergetic effects of Climate Change;
 Increased threat to biodiversity, which is already at risk due
to land-use/cover change and population pressure.
060212/0021

21. Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
2010 A serious landslide hi Ataabad in Gilgit-Baltistan 1n January and blocked Hunza
river for months together and formed a lake. Some villages got washed away and
caused huge damages to life and property
2010 The warmest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan was 53.7 °C in Mohenjo-
Daro on May 26. Maximum temperature in the city of Multan on 27 May was
recorded as 50°C which broke the old record of 49°C set in 1956.
2010 Tropical cyclone Phet formed in the Arabian Sea on May 31 gained a Cat-IV status
on June 2. This was the second strongest storm ever developed in the Arabian
Sea. Tropical cyclone Gonu of Cat-V developed in June, 2007 was the strongest
2010 The worst flooding in Pakistan took place during the months of July/August. 16
inches (406 mm) rainfall fell between 28-30 July over Risalpur/Nowshehra (Khyber
Pakhtunkhawa). Heavy rain over all the provinces including Gilgit-Baltistan/Azad
Kashmir fell during July/August. Many stations broke their previous normal
records of rainfall during the months and brought catastrophic damages ever faced
by Pakistan in its history. Losses to the tune of some $ 43 billion, 20 million people
affected, 1.8 million acre crops damaged and 1000 bridges collapsed.
2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain on 18 & 19 July. Heaviest rainfall earlier recorded
at Karachi was 207 mm on 1st July, 1977. The normal rainfall at Karachi for the
periods 1961-1990 is 85.5 mm

22. Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
Contd.
2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. 48°C
temperature was recorded on 9th June at Lahore, a record
repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June
1929
2007 Two super cyclones namely Gonu (02A) of Cat-5 and Yemyin
(03B) of Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007
and hit Makran Coast and adjoining countries. The history of
the Arabian Sea at least during the previous century shows no
such events occurring twice in a month
2001 620 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of
July (on 23rd); it caused flooding in Lai nullah
1998-2001 History’s worst drought gripped southern parts of Pakistan and
parts of surrounding countries
1996 438 mm rain in Lahore in 72 hours in August 1996 the wettest
month on record
1992 Previous century’s worst flood in Jhelum river

23. Major Emerging Climate Change Challenges
for Water Resources of Pakistan
 Rapid Melting of HKH glaciers and its Implications for:
 Average Annual River Flows
 Pattern of Seasonal Flows
 Inter Annual Variability of Flows
 Increased number of GLOF events
 Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme
Precipitation Events and its Implication for Floods and
Droughts
 Sea-level Rise and its Implications
 Stress on Judicial Water Sharing (Upper and Lower
Riparian)

24. Climate Change Research in
GCISC
24

25. Past & Projected Climate
Change in Pakistan
25

27. Rising and Falling Trends observed in the Monthly Energy (Degree Days)
of Upper Indus Basin High Altitude Weather Stations During 1995 – 2009
UIB Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Stations
Khunjerab Z Z Z Z R R F F F R Z Z
Ziarat Z Z R F R R F F F F R Z
Naltar R R R N R R F F F N N R
Yasin Z Z R R R R F F F R R Z
Ushkore R R R R R R N F F N R F
Hushey R R R R R R F N F F R R
Rama Z Z R F R R F F F F N Z
Rattu R R R N R R F F F N F R
Deosai Z Z Z F R R F F F R Z Z
Burzil Z Z Z R R R F F F R Z Z
R = Rising Trend ; F = Falling Trend ; N = No Trend; Z = Zero Degree Days

28. Northern and Southern Parts of Pakistan
(b)
(a)
(b)
Grids covering geographical areas of:
a) Northern and
b) Southern parts of Pakistan Climatology Section, GCISC 28

29. 29

30. 30

31. Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C)
by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario
Northern Southern
Pakistan
Pakistan Pakistan
Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18
Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26
Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18
• Temperature increase in Pakistan is higher than the increase
observed globally
• Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher
in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan
• Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are
higher in winter than in summer Climatology Section, GCISC 31

32. GCISC Studies on Impact of
Climate Change on Water and
Agriculture
32

33. Application of Remote Sensing &
GIS Tools & Techniques

34. Snouts Variation of Some of the Glaciers in Hunza Basin
Landsat image; Resolution 30m
34

35. Measured Changes in Volumes of selected Glaciers of Hunza
Basin, Karakoram Range, Himalaya (1979-2000)
• 7 – 8 band satellite images of 30m resolution taken by LandSat were
available for 1979, 1992 and 2000.
• The images were analysed using Erdas Imagine software.

36. Measured Changes in Volumes of selected Glaciers of Hunza
Basin, Karakoram Range, Himalaya (1979-2000)
Volume Change ∆V % Change in Glacier Volume*
Glacier Name (km³)
Bualtar 1.4 ± 0.7 10.4 ± 5.0
Mohmil 3.3 ± 1.8 27.1 ± 14.6
Barpu 4.9 ± 3.2 19.13 ± 12.4
Gulkin -0.3± 0.3 -8.4 ± 9.8
Mulungatti 1.5 ± 2.6 7.7 ± 12.9
Gulmit -0.1 ± 0.2 -2.9 ± 7.3
Passu 0.8 ± 2.6 9.5 ± 30.8
* Data of glaciers is given in descending order according to significance level in %
change in glacier volume

37. Threat to Food Security

38. Vulnerability of Agriculture to
Climate Change
 Irrigated Agriculture: Consumes >90% of fresh water resources
and contributes >75% to national production;
Rained and Dryland Agriculture: Contributes <25% to
national production.
 Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier
melt in the wake of climate change.
 Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity,
intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
 Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate
extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail
storms, sea storms, etc.

39. Pakistan will experience decreases in crop
production and quality due to:
 Shortening of growing season length
 Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,
e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages
 Increased pest/disease incidence
 Increased crop water requirements due to higher
evapotranspiration at elevated temperatures

40. Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate
Change Impact Studies on Agriculture
40

41. Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different
agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining
constant) (based on GCISC studies)
4500
Northern
Mountainous
4000 (Humid)
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
Northern Sub-
3500 Mountainous
(Sub-humid)
3000 Southern Plains
(Semi arid)
2500
Southern Plains
(Arid)
2000
0 1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Change ( oC)

42. Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in
Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios
% Share in % Change in yield in 2085
Baseline Yield
Region National A2 B2
(kg ha-1)
Production Scenario Scenario
Northern
Mountainous 2 2658 +50 +40
Northern Sub-
mountainous 9 3933 -11 -11
Southern
Semi arid 42 4306 -8 -8
Plains
Southern Arid 47 4490 -5 -6
Plains
Pakistan 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4

43. Application of UBC (University of British
Colombia) Hydrological Model
43

44. APPLICATIO OF UBC - UPPER INDUS BASIN @ BESHAM QILA
44

45. Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus River Flows at Bisham Qila
(Just above Tarbela Reservoir)
Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
 Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50%
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
7000
6000
Discharge (Cumecs)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
May
Mar
Nov
Aug
Jul
Jan
Jun
Apr
Sep
Feb
Oct
Dec
Base Runoff CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt
Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15%
2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed

46. Major Collaborating International Partners
• APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change
Research, Japan;
• ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical
Physics, Italy;
• IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;
• NCAR National Centre for Atmospheric Research, USA;
• GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK;
• ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development, Nepal;
• GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space,
Univ. of Nebraska, USA.
• CeG School of Civil Engineering, Newcastle University, UK

47. Collaborating National Organizations
1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD
2. Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA
3. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC
4. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF
5. University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR
6. Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Organisation, SUPARCO
7. Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST
8. Pakistan Inst. of Nuclear Science and Technology, PINSTECH
9. Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, PCRWR
10. Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engg., CEWRE/UET

48. Required Further Efforts
 Develop appropriate Adaptation and
Mitigation Measures to counter the negative
impacts by sharing the regional experience

49. THANKS
CLIMATE CHANGE THAT
WE ARE HERE TOGETHER
FOR A COMMON CAUSE
49