Climate Change Concerns and Emerging Challenges for Water and Food Security of Pakistan, by Ghasanfar Ali


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Climate Change Concerns and Emerging Challenges for Water and Food Security of Pakistan, by Ghasanfar Ali

  1. 1. Climate Change Concerns and EmergingChallenges for Water and Food Security of Pakistan Ghazanfar Ali Head Water Resources Section Regional Workshop on Climate Change, Food and Water Security 24 – 25 February, 2011, Colombo, Sri Lanka
  2. 2. Outline Regional Settings Some Characteristics of Pakistan’s Water Resources Past & Projected Climate Changes w.r.t. Pakistan Vulnerability of Water and Food Security GCISC Studies on Impact of Climate Change on Water and Agriculture Some Adaptation Possibilities/Way Forward 2
  3. 3. The South Asian Region: A hot spot or many hot spots
  4. 4. Principal Rivers of the Himalayan RegionRiver Name Length (km) Mean Glacier Melt in River Discharge Flow (%) (m³/s)Yangtze 6,300 34,000 18.5Brahmaputra 2,948 19,824 12.3Ganges 2,057 18,691 9.1Irrawaddy 2,170 13,565 SmallMekong 4,600 11,048 6.6Indus 2,900 5,533 44.8Salween 2,800 1,494 8.8Yellow 5,464 1,365 1.3Tarim 2,030 146 40.2
  5. 5. Countries Financially Vulnerable to Extreme Weather Events
  6. 6. South Asia: Induced Vulnerability (Climate Change/Variability)• Two thirds of the disasters, region experiences, are climate related (Cyclone, Floods, Drought / Desertification, GLOFs)• Phenomenal increase in their frequency, severity and unpredictability in the recent times• Climate Risk – on the Rise
  7. 7. Basic Features of South Asian Economies India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Pakistan NepalPopulation (millions) 1081.23 19.22 149.66 157.32 2.57Per capita GDP (US$) 538 976 371 547 240Share of Agriculture in GDP 22 17 22 23 40(%)Water use in agriculture (%) 87 96 96 96 96Cereals Production – Share 10.2 1.8 0.3 0.1 1.3in World (%)Proportion of people 20 22 30 23 17undernourished (%)Cereal Requirement -1 - -5 -25 -Status by 2025 (%)
  8. 8. Some Characteristics ofPakistan’s Water Resources
  9. 9. Some Characteristic of Pakistan‘s Water Resources Year 1951 2003 2007 2020 Water Availability Per Capita (m3) (projected) Availability 5650 1200 1100 855 IRS Inflows Annual In Kharif In Rabi ( Apr-Sep) ( Oct-Mar) Average 137.87 MAF 82% 18% Maximum 218.1 MAF Minimum 97 MAF Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)  Original : 18.4 MAF (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)  Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)  Projected 2010 : 12.4 MAF (≈ 9 % of Average Annual Flows) Downstream Kotri Annual Discharges  Average : 35 MAF  Maximum (in 1994-95) : 92 MAF  Minimum (in 2000-01) : 0.77 MAF 10 Source of data: WAPDA
  10. 10. Pakistan Remote Inflow Measurements Stations Indus at Jhelum at Kalabagh Mangla Chenab at Marala Ravi at Balloki Sutlej at Sulemanki
  11. 11. Upper Indus Basin Glaciers
  12. 12. The Karakoram Glaciers There are more than 5000 glaciers having areal coverage of about 15000 km2 in River Indus Catchment Total Ice Reserve Estimate of UIB is about 2200 MAF of Water Equivalent The largest 23 glaciers account for about 60% of the glacier area. These glaciers are born within an elevation zone of 5000 – 7000 meters above sea level. Above 70% of River flows are generated from UIB Snow and Glacier melt Annual glacier melt (1962 – 2009) average in River Indus at Tarbela is about 40 MAF
  13. 13. Projected Implications on Indus River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers (Reported by Some Recent Studies) IPCC AR4 (2007) Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. World Bank (2006) Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years. 14
  14. 14. Vulnerability of Water and Food Security
  15. 15. Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan Key sectors: Water and Agriculture at greatest risk; Increased variability of Monsoon due to ENSO events becoming stronger and more frequent in a warmer climate; Increased risks of floods and landslides, droughts, typhoons and tropical storms, forest fires etc. due to increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events; Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions due to reduced rainfall, increased temp., and depletion of soil moisture – May lead to expansion of deserts;060212/0018
  16. 16. Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan (Contd.)  More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers due to increase in temp. and seasonal variability of precipitation – May lead to increased summer flows in Indus river system for a few decades, followed by reduction in flows as Glaciers disappear;  Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline on mountains with increase in surface temp. – May increase risk of floods during the wet season;  Agriculture productivity likely to suffer severe losses due to high temp., droughts, flood conditions and soil degradation – Would endanger food security of the country;060212/0019
  17. 17. Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan (Contd.)  As a result of sea level rise, large scale inundation of coastline and recession of flat sandy beaches; upstream incursion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish;  Enhanced risk to life and property in coastal areas due to increased intensity of tropical cyclones, combined with sea level rise; High risk for Karachi;  Large reduction in productivity of both warm water and cold water fish due to oxygen depletion in aquatic systems;060212/0020
  18. 18. Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan (Contd.) Higher incidence of Malaria and other vector-borne, water- borne and heat-related diseases due to warmer and wetter conditions; Risk to fragile ecology of Mountain and Highland systems due to synergetic effects of Climate Change; Increased threat to biodiversity, which is already at risk due to land-use/cover change and population pressure.060212/0021
  19. 19. Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan2010 A serious landslide hi Ataabad in Gilgit-Baltistan 1n January and blocked Hunza river for months together and formed a lake. Some villages got washed away and caused huge damages to life and property2010 The warmest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan was 53.7 °C in Mohenjo- Daro on May 26. Maximum temperature in the city of Multan on 27 May was recorded as 50°C which broke the old record of 49°C set in 1956.2010 Tropical cyclone Phet formed in the Arabian Sea on May 31 gained a Cat-IV status on June 2. This was the second strongest storm ever developed in the Arabian Sea. Tropical cyclone Gonu of Cat-V developed in June, 2007 was the strongest2010 The worst flooding in Pakistan took place during the months of July/August. 16 inches (406 mm) rainfall fell between 28-30 July over Risalpur/Nowshehra (Khyber Pakhtunkhawa). Heavy rain over all the provinces including Gilgit-Baltistan/Azad Kashmir fell during July/August. Many stations broke their previous normal records of rainfall during the months and brought catastrophic damages ever faced by Pakistan in its history. Losses to the tune of some $ 43 billion, 20 million people affected, 1.8 million acre crops damaged and 1000 bridges collapsed.2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain on 18 & 19 July. Heaviest rainfall earlier recorded at Karachi was 207 mm on 1st July, 1977. The normal rainfall at Karachi for the periods 1961-1990 is 85.5 mm
  20. 20. Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan Contd.2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. 48°C temperature was recorded on 9th June at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June 19292007 Two super cyclones namely Gonu (02A) of Cat-5 and Yemyin (03B) of Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran Coast and adjoining countries. The history of the Arabian Sea at least during the previous century shows no such events occurring twice in a month2001 620 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July (on 23rd); it caused flooding in Lai nullah1998-2001 History’s worst drought gripped southern parts of Pakistan and parts of surrounding countries1996 438 mm rain in Lahore in 72 hours in August 1996 the wettest month on record1992 Previous century’s worst flood in Jhelum river
  21. 21. Major Emerging Climate Change Challenges for Water Resources of Pakistan Rapid Melting of HKH glaciers and its Implications for:  Average Annual River Flows  Pattern of Seasonal Flows  Inter Annual Variability of Flows  Increased number of GLOF events Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Precipitation Events and its Implication for Floods and Droughts Sea-level Rise and its Implications Stress on Judicial Water Sharing (Upper and LowerRiparian)
  22. 22. Climate Change Research in GCISC 24
  23. 23. Past & Projected Climate Change in Pakistan 25
  24. 24. Rising and Falling Trends observed in the Monthly Energy (Degree Days) of Upper Indus Basin High Altitude Weather Stations During 1995 – 2009UIB Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecStationsKhunjerab Z Z Z Z R R F F F R Z ZZiarat Z Z R F R R F F F F R ZNaltar R R R N R R F F F N N RYasin Z Z R R R R F F F R R ZUshkore R R R R R R N F F N R FHushey R R R R R R F N F F R RRama Z Z R F R R F F F F N ZRattu R R R N R R F F F N F RDeosai Z Z Z F R R F F F R Z ZBurzil Z Z Z R R R F F F R Z ZR = Rising Trend ; F = Falling Trend ; N = No Trend; Z = Zero Degree Days
  25. 25. Northern and Southern Parts of Pakistan (b) (a) (b)Grids covering geographical areas of: a) Northern and b) Southern parts of Pakistan Climatology Section, GCISC 28
  26. 26. 29
  27. 27. 30
  28. 28. Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario Northern Southern Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18 Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26 Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18 • Temperature increase in Pakistan is higher than the increase observed globally • Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan • Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer Climatology Section, GCISC 31
  29. 29. GCISC Studies on Impact ofClimate Change on Water and Agriculture 32
  30. 30. Application of Remote Sensing & GIS Tools & Techniques
  31. 31. Snouts Variation of Some of the Glaciers in Hunza Basin Landsat image; Resolution 30m 34
  32. 32. Measured Changes in Volumes of selected Glaciers of Hunza Basin, Karakoram Range, Himalaya (1979-2000)• 7 – 8 band satellite images of 30m resolution taken by LandSat were available for 1979, 1992 and 2000.• The images were analysed using Erdas Imagine software.
  33. 33. Measured Changes in Volumes of selected Glaciers of Hunza Basin, Karakoram Range, Himalaya (1979-2000) Volume Change ∆V % Change in Glacier Volume* Glacier Name (km³) Bualtar 1.4 ± 0.7 10.4 ± 5.0 Mohmil 3.3 ± 1.8 27.1 ± 14.6 Barpu 4.9 ± 3.2 19.13 ± 12.4 Gulkin -0.3± 0.3 -8.4 ± 9.8 Mulungatti 1.5 ± 2.6 7.7 ± 12.9 Gulmit -0.1 ± 0.2 -2.9 ± 7.3 Passu 0.8 ± 2.6 9.5 ± 30.8* Data of glaciers is given in descending order according to significance level in %change in glacier volume
  34. 34. Threat to Food Security
  35. 35. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change Irrigated Agriculture: Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >75% to national production; Rained and Dryland Agriculture: Contributes <25% to national production. Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate change. Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls. Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc.
  36. 36. Pakistan will experience decreases in cropproduction and quality due to: Shortening of growing season length Heat stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages Increased pest/disease incidence Increased crop water requirements due to higher evapotranspiration at elevated temperatures
  37. 37. Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate Change Impact Studies on Agriculture 40
  38. 38. Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining constant) (based on GCISC studies) 4500 Northern Mountainous 4000 (Humid)Wheat Yield (kg/ha) Northern Sub- 3500 Mountainous (Sub-humid) 3000 Southern Plains (Semi arid) 2500 Southern Plains (Arid) 2000 0 1 2 3 4 5 Temperature Change ( oC)
  39. 39. Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios % Share in % Change in yield in 2085 Baseline Yield Region National A2 B2 (kg ha-1) Production Scenario ScenarioNorthernMountainous 2 2658 +50 +40Northern Sub-mountainous 9 3933 -11 -11SouthernSemi arid 42 4306 -8 -8PlainsSouthern Arid 47 4490 -5 -6PlainsPakistan 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4
  40. 40. Application of UBC (University of British Colombia) Hydrological Model 43
  42. 42. Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus River Flows at Bisham Qila (Just above Tarbela Reservoir) Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):  Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50% Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004 7000 6000 Discharge (Cumecs) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 May Mar Nov Aug Jul Jan Jun Apr Sep Feb Oct Dec Base Runoff CCS Runoff Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
  43. 43. Major Collaborating International Partners• APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan;• ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy;• IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;• NCAR National Centre for Atmospheric Research, USA;• GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK;• ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Nepal;• GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA.• CeG School of Civil Engineering, Newcastle University, UK
  44. 44. Collaborating National Organizations1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD2. Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA3. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC4. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF5. University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR6. Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Organisation, SUPARCO7. Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST8. Pakistan Inst. of Nuclear Science and Technology, PINSTECH9. Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, PCRWR10. Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engg., CEWRE/UET
  45. 45. Required Further Efforts Develop appropriate Adaptation and Mitigation Measures to counter the negative impacts by sharing the regional experience