6 2 mohsin iqbal - climate change impacts 21 dec 12 updated


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6 2 mohsin iqbal - climate change impacts 21 dec 12 updated

  1. 1. Impact of Climate Changeon Water and Food in Pakistan M. Mohsin Iqbal and M. Arif Goheer Global change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad PSSP (Pakistan Strategy Support Program) 1st Annual Conference on ‘Productivity , Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Pakistan’ Islamabad, 13-14 December 2012
  2. 2. Most Serious Climate Change Concerns of PakistanThe Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC)* has identified the following major concerns:∗ Water Security∗ Food Security∗ Energy Security∗ Vulnerability of Coastal areas *Set up by Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan in Oct 2008.The Final Report of TFCC was published on Feb 2010.
  3. 3. Fresh Water Resources of Pakistan∗ River inflows from the snow and glacier melt from Himalayan Region : (97-172 million acre feet, maf)∗ Rainfall: 180 maf Monsoon : July to September (80% of total) Winter rains: December to January (20% of total)∗ Groundwater: 50 maf Source: TFCC, 2010
  4. 4. Implications of Climate Change on Indus River Flows ∗ Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows; then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent 50 years (World Bank, 2006). ∗ Simulations conducted by GCISC show that with the rise in temperature and recession of glaciers, not only the flows of Indus River System will be reduced but the pattern of its seasonal flows will also be changed considerably.
  5. 5. Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS): ∆ Temp: +3°C, ∆ Glacier Area: - 50% Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004 7000 6000Discharge (Cumecs) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 May Mar Nov Jan Jun Aug Jul Apr Feb Sep Oct Dec Base Runoff CCS Runoff Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier meltMain Results: 1. Annual flows reduced5by 15% Source: 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed GCISC, 2009
  6. 6. Annual Flows of Western Rivers in Pakistan Source: Indus River System Authority, 2010
  7. 7. Total Water Storage Capacity of Pakistan Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela Dams) Original : 18.4 MAF* (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows) Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows) Present (2012) : 14.2 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows) *MAF: Million Acre Feet Source: WAPDA, 2011 (http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-index.html) 7
  8. 8. Water Demand/ Consumption Pakistan’s Water Scenario for 2025 Year 2004 2025 Availability 104 MAF 104 MAF Requirement 115 MAF 135 MAF (including drinking water) Overall Shortfall 11 MAF 31 MAFSource: Ten Year Perspective Development Plan 2001-11, Planning Commission
  9. 9. Major Water Using Sectors in Pakistan Sr. Sectors Water usage (%) No. 2000* 2010** 1 Agricultural 96 69 2 Industrial 2 23 3 Municipal 2 8 * Bridges, Geoff; Asian Development Bank (2007). Asian Water Development Outlook 2007. Country Paper Pakistan** Ministry of Environment ( Cited in Economic Survey of Pakistan , 2010)
  10. 10. Agriculture Systems of Pakistan Total land area: 79.61 mha Cultivated area: 22.05 mha (28% of total) Irrigated area : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated) Rainfed area : 3.67 mha (16% of cultivated)∗ Pakistan’s agriculture system is predominantly irrigated with sizeable rainfed area∗ Irrigated agriculture provides 90% of Pakistans food requirements, 2o% of its GDP and employment to 60% of the population.∗ Irrigated areas are vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate change∗ Semi-arid and Arid areas are vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
  11. 11. Impacts of Climate Change on Crops∗ Shortening of Growing Season Length (due to high temperature)∗ Loss in crop yields∗ Susceptibility of reproductive growth stages to heat waves∗ Changes in river flows (less water available at critical sensitive growth stages)∗ Increased evapotranspiration∗ Increased land degradation (Waterlogging, Soil Salinization, Wind and water Erosion)
  12. 12. Future Food Demand by 2025 000 tonnesSr. Food Item Present (2010) Projected (2025)*No.1 Food grains 25,824 32,0922 Edible Oil 2,256 2,8033 Meat 2,935 3,6474 Milk 15,900 19,7585 Fruits 8,868 11,0206 Vegetables 4,035 5,014 *Estimates are based on population increase only; changes in dietary habits were not considered.
  13. 13. Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios 5000 4500Wheat Yield (kg/ha) 4000 3500 3000 2500 Base 2020 2050 2080 Northern Mountainous Region Northern Sub mountainous Southern Semi-arid Plains Southern Arid Plains Source: GCISC, 2009
  14. 14. Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios 4400 4200 A2 Scenario Rice yield (kg/ha) 4000 3800 B2 Scenario 3600 3400 3200 3000 1990 2025 2055 2085 YearYield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios Source: GCISC, 2009
  15. 15. Simulated Crop Water Requirementsdue to Climate Change (Increasing Temperature)∗ Rice-Wheat System Net Irrigation Requirements (NIR) are likely to increase by 3% for rise in temperature of 0.90C (upto 2020) and 6% for 1.80C (upto 2050).∗ Maize-Wheat system NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.80C rise in temperature.∗ Cotton-Wheat System NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.8 rise in temperature. 15 Source: Shahid et. Al., 2011
  16. 16. ConclusionsChallenges to WATER Variability in River Flows and Flow Patterns, due to climate change driven melting of HKH glaciers.∗ Decreasing per capita availability of water and increasing demand by different sectors∗ Inadequate water storage capacity coupled with loss in existing storage capacity with time∗ Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate eventsChallenges to FOOD∗ Crop yields decreasing due to increasing temperature, except in the northern mountainous areas∗ Both irrigated and rainfed areas are vulnerable to climate change and extreme events∗ Food demand increasing due to change in food habits and rising incomes∗ Crop water requirements increasing due to increased crop evapotranspiration