Climate change as a global challenge
•
3 likes•1,186 views
Including perspectives from IPCC AR5 Eystein Jansen Centre for Climate Research, Bergen
Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Viewers also liked
Viewers also liked (9)
Similar to Climate change as a global challenge
Similar to Climate change as a global challenge (20)
More from Francois Stepman
More from Francois Stepman (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Climate change as a global challenge
- 1. Climate change as a global challenge Including perspectives from IPCC AR5 Eystein Jansen eystein.jansen@uib.no
- 2. IPCC – Brief history • Established 1988 by UNEP and WMO • Governments are members • Decisions on actions taken in plenary meetings • But the work is done in 3 Working groups: WG1,2,3 • Led by scientists and work is done by scientists • Assesses the published scientific literature • Main reports every 6 years • Forms the factual background for UNFCCC (Climate negotiations)
- 3. Working Group I WGI Working Group II WGII Working Group III WGIII
- 4. Broad and open internasjonal collaboration Authors Countries Comments
- 5. “The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.” First Assessment Report 1990 “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate“ Second Assessment Report 1996 “In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.“ Third Assessment Report 2001 “ Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.“ Fourth Assessment Report 2007 “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century..“ Fifth Assessment Report 2013
- 6. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Measured global temperature
- 7. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen
- 8. 100 years ago (1903-1912)
- 9. Last 10 years (2003-2012)
- 10. Observered temperature trend 1.5-2.5⁰C 0.4-0.6⁰C 1.5-2.5⁰C-0.4⁰C 2⁰C 0.8⁰C Source: IPCC., 2013 0.8⁰C
- 14. Forcing of climate change 1750 - 2011 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3.18 2.42 W/m2 Source: IPCC, 2013 -0.66 -0.15 0.05 GHG Particles Total
- 15. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Causes for change in global temperature
- 16. Fig. SPM.6 Human influence on the climate system is clear. © IPCC 2013
- 18. Extreme precipitation events Less data, but an increase Trends in days with extreme events (1951-2010)
- 19. Are there more weather and climate related catastrophes? Floods Storms Aval. Heat waves Drought Forest and bushfires 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Reported events 4x increase in 40 years Floods and storms most frequent events Floods have increased most Source: WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water extremes
- 20. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Sources of emissions Energy production is the most important driver 35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4% 2010 GHG emissions Energy Sector Agriculture, forests and other land uses Industry Transport Building Sector AR5 WGIII SPM
- 22. Future and 2 degree target AR5 – SPM
- 23. We have a choice RCP2.6 RCP8.5 Fig.SPM.8
- 24. We have a choice RCP8.5
- 25. Dai, Nature Clim. Change (2012) Serious to extreme drought More soil moisture Summer drought (index based on 14 climate models; 2090-2099; RCP4.5)
- 26. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Potential negative effects Food and water Poverty problems Increased migration Coastal flooding AR5 WGII SPM
- 27. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Potential negative effects AR5 WGII SPM “The need for adaptation measures to cope with these projected impacts is significant even at 1.5-2°C warming. However, the Loss and Damage in Africa report shows that under all warming scenarios and despite strong adaptation efforts in the region, considerable adverse effects of climate change will be felt in Africa, resulting in further loss and damage.” (ACPC Loss and Damage report 2014)
- 28. Rainfall is the most important climatic factor to many African countries and its Inter-annual variability has a major impact on national economies Weather and climate extremes such as droughts and floods are quite common in eastern Africa Climate extremes are often associated with food, energy and water shortages, loss of life and property among many other socio-economic disruptions. VULNERABILITY TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES AND NEED FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION AND TIMELY EARLY WARNING
- 29. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM in E Africa Eastern Africa exhibits a large variety of complex topographical features that play an important role in modulating the global climate e.g. contrasts in its surface terrain, a large inland moisture source in the Congo region, large inland lakes, and many other inland processes.
- 30. Model resolution Klima Regional Downscaling necessary OLLABORATION IN CLIM ATE tion in hydrological modellingof mary tool istheHBV model,first sat SMHI,but now applied in sworldwide.Other hydrological E,HEC-HMS,VIC and ACRU, propriate.Hydrological research sticapproach,and thereby seeks ompletechain in forecast produc- al modelling.A current focusison emethodsfor transferringdyna- imatedatato hydrological mo- sscales.Thisisacritical step to esthat originatefrom climate pmentsto streamlinethis greatly facilitatetheuseof nume- nsin hydrological applications, ble” simulations. ENT gional DownscalingEXperiment national programmesponsored Research Program (WCRP) to sourcesby servingasthebasisfor dialogue,priority settingand policy formulation on climatechangeadap- tation at theregional level.RICCAR will provideregio- nal climateprojectionscoupled to regional hydrological model simulationsto assessimpactson freshwater re- sources.It will also incorporateextremeweather events analysisin theclimatechangeimpact and vulnerability assessments.ThisUN - LAS(Leagueof Arab States) joint action includesanumber of UN and regional agen- cies.SMHI isakey partner responsiblefor both regional climatemodellingand hydrological modelling.
- 31. 18 km 2 km Bergen Difference in simulated extreme precipitation between 18 km and 2 km resolution in complex terrain
- 32. NEED FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION AND TIMELY EARLY WARNING Climate monitoring and skilful seasonal climate prediction is crucial for proper planning and management of all climate sensitive activities including agriculture, water resources and hydroelectric power supply, among many others. Most Predictors for seasonal rainfall in the region are mainly based on SSTs and ENSO SST anomalies over Indian and Atlantic Oceans are however the main cause of climate variability in the region
- 35. 37 LINK BETWEEN ENSO AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY The Climate of eastern Africa depict very strong seasonality. The climate anomalies that are associated with ENSO events are seasonal and location dependent. Warm/Cold ENSO events are often, but not always, associated with below/above average rainfall amounts over most parts of the eastern Africa during the major rainfall seasons.
- 36. Urgency
- 37. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Door is about to be closed 65% of carbon budget for 2°C target is used up What we have emitted 1870-2011: 515 GtC What is left: 275 GtCTotal karbon budget: 790 GtC AR5 WGI SPM
- 38. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Projected climate changes Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system Global glacier volume will further decrease Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century AR5 WGI SPM Ocean acidification will continue.
- 39. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Adaptation to climate change Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness. Some adaptation responses involve significant co-benefits, synergies, and trade-offs. Increasing climate change will increase challenges for many adaptation options. AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM