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  • 1. Food Security in Asia For the students of International School of Manila April 2011
  • 2. 21. What we hear about it 2. Why it matters 3. What we have been doing 4. What needs to be done
  • 3. Food security: what we hear about it 3Higher food prices February 2011 “World food prices surged to a new historic peak in January, for the seventh consecutive month” (FAO) “Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels” (World Bank)
  • 4. Food security: what we hear about it 4 What drives food price rise Cyclical factors Structural factors (It just happens..) (How the world is made) • Crop failures • Increasing demand • Natural disasters • Low grain stock • Stagnating yield growth • High fuel prices • Less water and land • Weak US$ • Bio-fuel competition
  • 5. Food security: what we hear about it 5Increasing demand for food:70% more food needed to feedpopulation - 6.7 billion now to 9billion in 2050 (FAO)Decreasing farm land Source: FAO, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0765e/i0765e08.pdf Source: IFPRI, 2001
  • 6. Food security: what we hear about it 6Emerging water crisis:Asia has 50% of world’s population but only 30% of world’sfresh waterSevere shortage in 40% of developing Asia by 2030Climate change affects water availability (IWMI) Source: UN Environment Program http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/
  • 7. Food security: what we hear about it 7Climate change: Decline in the global crop production by asmuch as 15% of rain-fed maize, 20% of irrigated wheat, and16% of irrigated rice (IFPRI)Biofuel: 90% increase in demand for transport fuel,2000-2050. Increasing demand for biofuel (IIASA). Irrigated rice production in 2050 Source: IFPRI
  • 8. Food security: what we hear about it 8 Disasters in Asia: Between 1975 and 2006, Asia had 89% of disaster- affected people, 57% of fatalities, and 44% of economic damages (Sanker, et al) Climate change increases frequency and intensity of disasters (IPCC)
  • 9. Food Security: Why it matters 9  Affects economic growth Food inflation  Hurts poor people and increase poverty  Leads to panic and hording Market volatility  Food disappears from shops  Leads to social instability Photos fom “Hungry Planet” Vulnerable food by Peter Menzel  Leads to supply shortage supply systems  Increases food prices
  • 10. Food Security: Why it matters 10Food security and poverty  Despite continuing fight against poverty, Asia is still home to the largest number of poor  Higher food prices hurt poor people mostHungry peoplein the world(FAO, 2010)
  • 11. Food Security: Why it matters 11Volatility of food grains market Accurate information about food not available Free and open trade remains a goal, not a practice Lack of information causes hording and panic Speculation fans volatility, and is hard to regulate Abnormal spikes in food prices benefit nobody Export price of Thai white rice, 5% broken Source: IRRI
  • 12. Food Security: Why it matters 12Problems with the existing food supply systems  R&D: Not enough support to research and technology development  Small farmers who dominate Asia’s agriculture lack access to finance, infrastructure, and technology  More investment is needed in agriculture but funding is not enough  Efficient value chain is a key to deliver more food to market, but many farmers remain left  Risk management: Agriculture is a risky business, and we have not found the way to manage risks well
  • 13. Food Security: What we have done to date 13 Green RevolutionHow it  Widespread hunger and poverty in Asia in midstarted 1960s.  The Rockefeller and Ford foundations initiated.  IRRI and CIMMYT to develop new rice and wheat variety  Expanded use of fertilizer and IrrigationWhat did it  More than double cereal production in Asiado (1970-95).  No famine despite population increase by 60%.  Poverty declined from 3 out of 5 to less than 1 in 5.But some  Environmental degradation, and increasedcriticize inequality.  Agriculture becomes more input-reliant, particularly to fertilizer and energy.
  • 14. Food Security: What we have done to date 14 Food security challenges today What we did Good news Bad news are more complex Safety net New and more promising Many poor people remain approaches vulnerable Promotion of trade inflationinterest and Food Stronger Politics prevails in the end political will of the day Agronomic New and coordinated Funding shortage approach and funding Weak link to small farmers innovation Irrigation Expanded coverage of High level of water development Market volatility production irrigation with inefficiency growth Lack of O&M funding Value chain Active private sector Small and poor famers left engagement out development Vulnerable food supply systems Climate change Increasing knowledge, tools More knowledge and tools and funding support needed adaptation
  • 15. Food Security: What needs to be done 15  Improve safety net for the poor and vulnerable against shocks  Enhance agriculture and food trade  Make technologies available to the poor  Produce more food with less water  Invest in rural infrastructure  Strengthen value chain for the poor  Develop tools and business to manage risks
  • 16. Food Security: What needs to be done 16 More debate needed on: Does the world need the second Green Revolution or not? Do we support genetically modified crops or not? Food or biofuel? Should small farmers be protected or should more of them be sent to non agriculture? Food self-sufficiency or free trade? Increased partnership with private sector – can it be supportive of the poor?
  • 17. Thank you for listening.Katsuji Matsunami Views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of theAsian Development Bank Asian Development Bank.kmatsunami@adb.org