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Ict Mobile Summit 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Plenary Session Short Def
 

Ict Mobile Summit 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Plenary Session Short Def

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ICT mobile summit

ICT mobile summit
http://www.ict-mobilesummit.eu/

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    Ict Mobile Summit 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Plenary Session Short Def Ict Mobile Summit 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Plenary Session Short Def Presentation Transcript

    • Smartphone Operating Systems, mobile services and market impact Eduardo Fernandez Rojo Research In Motion Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Setting the scene: major trends • Value shifting Wireless • Consumers towards mobile landscape services and embracing applications changing massively mobile services and • Smartphone • Mobile OS and applications. era SW platforms are reshaping the • Enterprise Value Shift in wireless landscape mobility has become strategic mobility • Innovation driven through developer community and Demand & partnerships market growth ARPU and Revenue opportunities Carriers as main • Value propositions catalyzers • LifeTime Value revenues Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Value is shifting towards mobile Services and Applications Wireless landscape • Value changing • Consumers embracing • shifting towards massively Hardware is becoming a commodity: mobile services and applications mobile • Smartpho • Mobile OS services and and SW platforms applications. ne era are reshaping the wireless landscape Value Shift in • Enterprise mobility • Innovation mobility has strong price and margin erosio n driven through developer community and partnerships become Demand strategic & market growth • Differentiation through hardware alone ARPU & Revenue opportunity is becoming increasingly difficult Carriers as main catalyzers • Enterprises have long required software and services beyond just hardware — same trend now in the consumer market Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Value is shifting towards mobile Services and Applications • Differentiation and value-add comes from software and services • Consumers are increasingly making purchasing decisions based on software and services driven propositions. • The enterprise market has consolidated around most integrated, flexible and scalable mobility platforms. • Software and service-led model (platform) players are outperforming in today’s economic climate. (RIM BlackBerry, Apple, etc) Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Mobile OS and Software Platforms are reshaping wireless landscape Wireless landscape • Value changing • Consumers embracing • shifting towards massively As Bill Gates taught the world, one who controls mobile services and applications mobile • Smartpho • Mobile OS services and and SW platforms applications. ne era are reshaping the wireless landscape Value Shift in • Enterprise • Innovation the operating system controls de hardware world. mobility mobility has driven through developer become community and Demand strategic & partnerships market growth ARPU & Revenue opportunity Carriers as main catalyzers Mobile OS form the foundation for SW platforms and developer communities A growing world of fragmented preferences who in turn deliver innovative services for and applications consumers and professionals serving – through optimized mobile platforms ensuring a positive end user experience – Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Mobile OS and Software Platforms are reshaping wireless landscape • Mobile operating systems and platforms are the key enabler for uptake of value added services and applications. • Vendors strategically positioning/extending mobile OS and platforms as a key differentiator: Different • Reduce cost, achieve economies of scale approaches, similar • Reduce time to market drivers • Create platforms for the delivery of applications and services • OS differentiation will happen through UI/hardware (devices) and application support (including application distribution models) • Smartphones determine ultimately market impact, OS penetration and evolution. Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry .
    • Mobile OS and Software Platforms are reshaping wireless landscape • Players are diversifying • Smartphone vendors in fierce competition shift to royalty free/open source OS. • The long-term winners will be those who can deliver wide-ranging but still balancing on multi OS approach. experiences through tight integration of hardware, services and software Applications • Software platforms and mobile OS are at the core of this strategy. Hardware Services Source: CCS Insights 2008 – Adapted for BlackBerry template • The same trends apply to both consumer and enterprise • More fragmentation in the short term, but future consolidation will happen • Partnerships are critical for everyone in the value chain. Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Mobile OS platform ecosystem: driving innovation through developer communities Wireless landscape • Value changing • Consumers embracing shifting towards mobile services massively and applications mobile • Smartpho • Mobile OS services and and SW platforms applications. ne era are reshaping the wireless landscape Value Shift in • Enterprise mobility • Innovation mobility has driven through developer become community and Demand strategic & partnerships market growth ARPU & Revenue opportunity Carriers as main catalyzers Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Partner Community – Consumer Applications Mapping & Navigation Travel & Reference Guides Music, Video and Multimedia Information & News Services eCommerce Search, Messaging and Sharing Games and Entertainment Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Partner Community – Business Applications ERP – SCM, HR, Financials, CRM Business Intelligence Sales Force Automation Field Service Automation Fleet Management & Dispatch Unified Communications IT Systems Management Document Management & Printing Security & Compliance Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Partner Community – Industry Solutions Financial Services Professional Services Health Care & Life Sciences Government & Law Enforcement Manufacturing Real Estate Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Demand and Market growth Wireless landscape • Value changing • Consumers embracing shifting towards mobile services massively and applications mobile • Smartpho • Mobile OS services and and SW platforms applications. ne era Evidence that end users are embracing massively are reshaping the wireless landscape Value Shift in • Enterprise mobility • Innovation mobility has driven through developer become community and Demand strategic & partnerships market growth applications and services ARPU & Revenue opportunity Web services are driving consumer uptake of non-voice Carriers as main catalyzers and non- text services • Social networking sites have a combined membership of over 350 million usersMySpace: 200+ million users, Facebook: 125 million users (50 million in Jan 2008) Social networking phenomenon is turning to mobile. Mobile likely to become leading interface for social networking and user-generated content • Facebook has 15 million active mobile users • BlackBerry Facebook application downloads of 2.5 million • AT&T MySpace text service saw 75 million premium text messages sent in eight months • Top four searches on Vodafone Mobile Internet: Facebook, Bebo, Ebay and Windows Live Hotmail (May 2008) Broader interest in mobile applications Apple’s App Store has seen over 200 million cumulative downloads since 11 July 2008 App Store now has a catalogue of more than 5,500 applications Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Enterprise Mobility evolving, now strategic Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • ARPU and Revenue opportunities Wireless landscape • Value changing • Consumers embracing shifting towards mobile services massively and applications mobile • Smartpho • Mobile OS services and and SW platforms applications. ne era are reshaping the wireless landscape Value Shift in • Enterprise mobility • Innovation mobility has driven through developer become community and Demand strategic & partnerships market growth ARPU & Revenue opportunity Carriers as main catalyzers Mobile Data usage is growing but ARPU is decreasing Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • ARPU and revenue opportunities are ahead driven by Lifetime Value propositions • Lifetime Value (LTV) – LTV is the measure of all future cash flows for a customer discounted back to a present day value. • Carriers use of LTV – The high expense of acquiring new customers means that their value to the carrier is negative for the first year or more. – Carriers use LTV to assess the long-term profitability of acquiring customers today. • Example of Customer Lifecycle to Carrier: Day 1 Day 30/60/90/… Day 720+ Customer Buys a Phone Customer pays Bill $50+ Customer Churns or Carrier Carrier Customer Upgrades - Subsidizes phone - Pays ongoing usage costs - Pays commission to retail/dealer - Pays customer support costs - Network Capacity already built - Approximately 53% margin Net Cash Flow Net Cash Flow $400-$600 negative Approximately $30+ positive per month Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • BlackBerry Value Proposition Driving Partner Profitability - ARPU and LTV (North America) ARPU / LTV Source: OPEX Data from Yankee Group (US Mobile Carrier Monitor Sept 2008) Source: ARPU Data from Nielson Mobile Q1 2008 Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • BlackBerry Value Proposition Lifetime Value Calculation Non BB Source Formula Basic Phone Smartphones Blackberry Carrier ARPU Voice ARPU Neilson a $ 37.48 $ 44.23 $ 50.47 Other ARPU Neilson b $ 7.11 $ 9.02 $ 12.20 Data ARPU Neilson c $ 7.89 $ 20.85 $ 25.94 Total ARPU d=a+b+c $ 52.48 $ 74.11 $ 88.61 Total OPEX Yankee e $ (24.67) $ (34.83) $ (39.07) Gross Margin f = (d-e) / d 53% 53% 56% Churn Yankee g 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% Discount Rate h 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% PV of Gross Margin j = d x f / (g + h/12) $ 1,203.28 $ 1,699.08 $ 2,143.01 HandHeld Subsidy Yankee k $ (150) $ (150) $ (200) Other Acquisition Costs Yankee l $ (375) $ (375) $ (375) Network Infrastructure Costs Yankee m $ (99) $ (140) $ (105) Lifetime Value n = j - (k + l + m) $ 578.89 $ 1,033.76 $ 1,462.53 Breakeven Period (months) o = (k+l+m) / (d x f) 22.4 16.9 13.7 Source: OPEX Data from Yankee Group (US Mobile Carrier Monitor Sept 2008) Source: ARPU Data from Nielson Mobile Q1 2008 Source: Opex and COA based on Yankee estimates. Adjustments for Blackberry SAF & additional subsidy based on RIM estimates. Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry
    • Conclusions Wireless landscape • Value shifting changing • Consumers embracing towards mobile services and massively mobile applications services and • Smartphone • Mobile OS and SW applications. The wireless landscape is undergoing a era Value Shift in platforms are reshaping the wireless landscape • Innovation driven through developer community • Enterprise mobility has become strategic mobility and partnerships fundamental change with Mobile OS and Demand & market growth SW platforms at the core ARPU & Revenue opportunity Carriers as main catalyzers • Value is shifting from hardware to software & services • Users have high expectations in all areas — device, UI, ubiquitous access, applications and services, both in the enterprise and consumer space • Partnerships are critical — no single player can deliver solutions independently • Demand for applications and services is tangible and a significant growth opportunity for everyone in the value chain – And specifically for carriers in terms of ARPU/revenue generation. Session, 11th June 2009 ICT-MobileSummit 2009 Copyright 2009 Eduardo Fernandez Rojo - BlackBerry