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WebCongress US 2013 why does superman wear his underwear outside his pants?. Tech adoption, trends & patterns.


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a 51 slides review of the status of technology, trends and underlying patterns with emphasis on mobile tech & adoption.

Prepared for WebCongress US edition. Presented at James L. Knight Convention Center in Miami, November 2013

Published in: Technology, News & Politics

WebCongress US 2013 why does superman wear his underwear outside his pants?. Tech adoption, trends & patterns.

  1. 1. WebCongress US edition, Miami ed fernandez @efernandez
  2. 2. Who am I to singularity 3 generations journey ed Jr: ed: ed Gf: Hyperconnecting people&things smartphones Mobile computing platforms electricity Energy, utilities Infrastructure
  3. 3. Why Does Superman Wear His Underwear Outside His Pants? A) Express & Signify masculine strenght B) Aesthetics, emphasize human figure definition C) Printing techniques for comics last century
  4. 4. Any fool can know The point is to understand and, beyond understanding, predict Einstein from events & data (knowing) forming patterns (understanding) to predictions
  5. 5. Patterns & references State of the art in Tech:   KPCB internet trends. Mary Meeker & Liang Wu. Asymco. Horace Dediu Why this is happening:  Everet Rogers. Diffussion of innovations & why are we here? Why is it important to people?  Richard Dawkins. Selfish gene
  6. 6. Internet engine for convenience the mighty “The internet makes human desires more easily attainable, it offers convenience” “Convenience on the internet is basically achieved by two things: speed & cognitive ease” Ev Williams. Twitter co-founder
  7. 7. every traditional business has a digital bullet with its name engraved
  8. 8. Internet: where are we?
  9. 9. Internet: where are we? 2,67B 34% Internet penetration Internet users* 1,1B Internet adds 20082013 7,1B World Population 200M Internet adds this year China India Indonesia Russia Philippines Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Growth driven by emerging markets *End 2013 estimated on YoY growth rate of 8%. Source: UN/ITU, 2012
  10. 10. Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser
  11. 11. Apps & Devices everywhere Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser
  12. 12. Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser
  13. 13. Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser
  14. 14. Mobile Trends: a brave new world
  15. 15. Internet becoming Mobile First
  16. 16. Post Matt Murphy + Mary Meeker [ Post PC era ]
  17. 17. New computing cycles
  18. 18. Technology evolution Laws Computing capacity Moore’s Law Computing power doubles every 18-24 months Price cuts in half Bandwidth capacity Gilder’s & Nielsen’s Law Doubles every 2 years - wired Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law) Digital storage capacity Doubles every 2 years. Kryder’s Law
  19. 19. Wireless Smaller Powerful Cheaper
  20. 20. Smartphone adoption not even half way World is here
  21. 21. … Platforms Platforms
  22. 22. fragmentation
  23. 23. Complexity of mobile phone market mobile phone market share doesn’t tell the full story Source: VisionMobile
  24. 24. Operating systems Over the next two years, innovation in user experiences comes from new software platforms. legacy frameworks, current operating systems, struggle to deliver disruptive innovation. Potential innovators include BlackBerry OS 10, Firefox OS and Tizen. Established players will selectively implement elements, but fail to gain the slick integration of the originals. CCS insights. Predictions for 2013 and beyond
  25. 25. the TIC TAC TOE mobile strategy
  26. 26. Hardware Google Motorola 2000 Nokia Microsoft Apple RIM OS Cloud
  27. 27. Hardware Google Motorola 2007 Nokia Microsoft Apple RIM OS Cloud
  28. 28. Hardware Google 2012 The year of the fruit Motorola Nokia Microsoft Apple BlackBerry OS Cloud
  29. 29. People motivations are changing? 1943 - Maslow 2013 - ?!?
  30. 30. Online & Offline blurring boundaries
  31. 31. People: new generation of social entrepreneurs • • • • • • • • • New paths in Maslow’s pyramid ‘truth’ is a tweet, photo or video clicked & sent away New definitions of ‘success’: money may not be in Access to luxury more important than owning luxury – Rise of sharing economy Self-realization and self-actualization online (Win)^3: You help me, I help you, we help others Klout score in your resume Managing man-machine symbiosis, key competencies. Global network, global thinking, global objectives. A collective intelligence arising (Singularity)
  32. 32. Entrepreneurship
  33. 33. People: new generations Reduced sense of security since 2001 terrorists attacks Destabilized economy since Global Financial crisis 2008 High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – self sustain or live out of the system Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg, Larry, Sergey All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself (kickstarter) reduced loss of aversion (nothing to lose) fostering self driven -entrepreneurship (most benefitial path in given conditions)
  34. 34. Matt Murphy + Mary Meeker
  35. 35. Arguably the worst recession, Undoubtely the biggest technology opportunity ever …
  36. 36. What should we do? 1. Engage in POLITICS ?!? 2. EDUCATE (help next gen understand) 3. DO vs WATCH (create, innovate, act) • ed fernandez @efernandez •