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Dried Food Processing

from
Market Development Unlocking
Opportunity to Change Lives

1
Underlying Problems
Cheetah’s Investment Approach
Concept Description

BACKGROUND

2
Underlying Problems:
4 Halves of the Have-Nots

Solution:
A food processor that turns harvest losses
to an advantage
3
Cheetah’s Investment
Strategy

Integrated Development
Equation: ideq

Crops
(Harvest
Losses)

Food Drying,
Processing, Marketing

New Opportunity

Cash,
Food Security,
& Improved
Nutrition
4
Concept Summary

Simple,
reliable food
safety,
culturally
Solar-based familiar, and
drying is
low cost
oldest
storage
‘processing’
technology

New drying
technology
allows
opportunity
for scale

Provides life
changing
impact in
rural villages

5
Introduction and Summary

INVESTMENT APPROACH

6
Mission
Why

• Increase food security, decrease hunger and
malnutrition, and create opportunity for poor families…

How

• by enabling large scale drying of local foods through
value-added management into markets of value…

What

• through further processing, product development,
certifications, marketing and distribution…

Who

• based on a supply chain sourcing these dried foods from
local village groups.
7
Three Value Chain Components
Grass Roots Development
Led by partner NGOs including
MUVI, fintrac, Cheetah, Africare,
Care, Concern and others

Distribution of Technology and Capacity Building
Processing & Sales

Led by Reservoir with program
Formation or leverage of existing support from SUA and NGOs
Led by new startup named
farmer cooperatives, women’s
Contract manufacture and
Sunborn Foods
groups, savings associations, etc. distribution of solar dryers.
Contract purchasing of dried
Concept introductions, capacity
Distribution through local
food from farmer groups
building (programmatic or
franchisee shops
financial support)
Processing, packaging,
Training materials and training marketing and sales of dried
Improved agronomy
leadership on dryer use, food foods
Group based not individual
processing, and food safety
management

8
Business Model
1. Contract with food drying groups to purchase their
outputs
2. Partner with distributor of dryers (Reservoir) and NGOs
to connect with village based food drying groups
3. Establish food processing factory using simple and
affordable processing technologies to reduce
investment requirements in early years

9
Approach
Be a leading processor and marketer of solar dried foods.
1. Leverage distributed solar capacity of 1000s of village
based dryers
2. Provide capacity building in technology including food
science, recipes, and food safety
3. Purchase village dried fruits and vegetables providing
reliable, guaranteed market
4. Provide processing, marketing and distribution of dried
food products

10
Strategies
1. Produce high quality, highly nutritious and safe
products
2. Keep processing model simple and low-cost
3. Obtain various certifications
4. Where appropriate, mill products into usable flours,
teas and herbs
5. Markets: snacks, local packaged foods, ingredient to
other product manufacturers, special attention on
unique flour products

11
The Four Ps of Marketing:
Product
Price
Place
Promotion

MARKETING

12
• Pay attention to the 4 Ps!
• Distribution systems lacking:
– Identify wholesale opportunities
– Be product friendly to informal sector
– Create multilayer distribution
with profit for every layer

Avoiding
Common
Local
Marketing
Mistakes

• Biggest impediment to success is
scale: market is big but local
producers are small (is reason why imports are prevalent) so
plan to achieve scale
• Be wary of preference for “cultural sensitization” and conduct
aggressive customer focused marketing
• Competition is international – is needed quality level
• Start local; export markets are difficult to meet standards and
expensive to support
13
PRODUCT: Foods Able to be
Dried
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Potatoes
Cassava
Bananas
Sweet Potatoes
Other Staples
Tomatoes
Mangos
Pineapples
Apples
Pears
Other Fruits

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Pumpkins
•
Carrots
•
Onions
•
Garlic
•
Hot and other
•
Peppers
•
Other Vegetables •
Spinach
•
Rosemary
Other Herbs and
Leaves

Hibiscus
Lemon Grass
Tea Leaves
Ground Nuts
Cocoa
Vanilla
Meat
And much more!

14
PRODUCT: Dried Foods Currently
Available in Scale: FLAVORS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Potatoes
Cassava
Bananas
Sweet Potatoes
Other Staples
Tomatoes
Mangos
Pineapples
Apples
Pears
Other Fruits

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Pumpkins
•
Carrots
•
Onions
•
Garlic
•
Hot and other
•
Peppers
•
Other Vegetables •
Spinach
•
Rosemary
Other Herbs and
Leaves

Hibiscus
Lemon Grass
Tea Leaves
Ground Nuts
Cocoa
Vanilla
Meat
And much more!

15
PRODUCT: Large Scale Food Processing
Typical Food Factories:

Food Drying:

– Expensive Packaging
+ Cheap packaging
– Ship water weight (expensive) + Cheap shipping
+ Massive scale possible in
central location
+ Compete processing in
minutes to hours
+ Energy intensive

– Difficult to take to scale
centrally
– Complete processing in
hours to days
– Energy efficient

 New Dryer design
overcomes these problems
by outsourcing to villages
so NEW PRODUCT
16
OPPORTUNITIES
PRODUCT: Tomatoes & Onions are
Priority (General Situation)
• New dryer design allows for widespread
village use – enabling drying of tomatoes
and onions for first time
• Tomatoes and onions (flavorings) have
highest local demand differential
• Flavorings most successful drying
application across all food commodities
• Tomatoes (plus onions, garlic) largest
flavoring ingredients: ketchup, sauces,
ingredients used

17
PRODUCT: Tomatoes & Onions are
Priority (Specific Situation)
• 70% of tomato production is in Iringa
• Plus large Iringa crops of onions and garlic
• MUVI has organized and registered 5600
tomato farmers (and growing)
• Fintrac has local presence and expertise
in tomatoes
• Cheetah’s Reservoir and Sunborn Foods
to begin operations in Iringa
18
CONFIDENTIAL

PRODUCT Tomatoes:
Major New Product Opportunity
• Launch tomato flavorings in a dried
form (as is common to flavorings)
• Compete through substantially lower
processing costs and seasonal
demand differential
• Launch powdered ketchup, chili
sauces, and plain tomato flour
• IMPORTANT: Apparent risks are in
execution not market opportunity
19
PRODUCT:
Not Only
Tomatoes

Fruit based snack foods considered 2nd
largest opportunity: massive harvest
losses, high demand differential, high profit
margins, widespread crop
availability, matches snack food input
purchasing pattern

• Farmers can use dryers
for a wide variety of
products to expand
opportunity, increase
income, improve food
security
• Sunborn needs broader
product line to leverage
factory investment in
tomato off-season

Potatoes and cassava 3rd: large
local market size, significant
post harvest losses, growing
demand for potatoes, use as
ingredient in other foods
Weaning foods,
nutrition improvement
solutions are next
based on NGO
distribution support
20
PLACE:
Start
Local

Why think about exports when local
demand is high, malnutrition prevalent and
food is being imported? (Only reason is that
western markets have distribution
structures.) Real need is local so start local.
It gives opportunity to go to scale and
improve quality.

1. Start with local markets – in the company’s own region
2. When successful expand in concentric rings
3. Buyers in big cities require scale and high quality – avoid
until prepared
4. Go to East African nations next
5. Western nations last – they have difficult standards and
expensive sales process
21
PLACE: Key Local Buyers
Many of the buyers are already defined by the PRODUCT
component of the Marketing Plan. However: the following
are the key segments:
• Snack foods to local shops and casual vendors through
the company and distributors to be identified
• Bulk flavorings to wholesale processors (already in
communication with Tropical Heat)
• Midsized packages to Supermarkets and restaurants
• Experiment with daily use packaging for rural areas
• Bulk to NGOs using for nutritional supplements

22
PRICE: Local Situation
• Be aware of price sensitivity to pricing
thresholds (like 500 and 1000 shillings for
snack foods)
• Consider buyers who purchase a day’s
supply, especially in rural areas
• Processed foods have fixed prices even if
inputs are varying in cost seasonally
• Be ready to serve a multilayered
distribution system with profit for every tier
23
PRICE: Demand Price Survey
Scarce to Plenty: Market Demand Differential
100%
80%

Farm Margin Scarce to
Plenty

60%

Market Margin Scarce to
Plenty

Tomatoes (and Onions) win!
40%
20%
0%
Tomatoes
(Top
Flavoring
Staple)

Key
Flavoring
Staples

Fruits

Primary
Starch
Staples

Secondary Snack Food
Starch
Sources
Staples
24
PRICE: Possible False
Assumption
With every processed food (except maize) we
can demonstrate that the market price has little
to do with the plenty to scarce differential.

PROCESSING IS NOT BEING USED AS STORAGE
TO OVERCOME THE PLENTY TO SCARCE PRICE
DIFFERENTIAL OF UNPROCESSED FOODS.)

25
PRICE: Processing Margins Survey
Processing Gross Margins

Conclusions:
• High gross margins
available for all
intensively processed
foods (80-95%)
• Only maize is seasonally
adjusted
• Many inputs are bought
in plenty season and
then processed through
the year
• Oil processing is
impacted by large
amount of imports (60%)

120%
100%
80%
60%
40%

Farm
Plenty
Source
Market
Scarce
Source

20%
0%
-20%

26
PROMOTION: Usual Methods
The usual promotional methods will be used:
• Western quality logos (and near western
grade packaging except in small packs)
• Sales people with face-to-face contact
• Sample packs and sidewalk tasting
promotions
• Advertising but linked to measurable
performance results
27
Competitive Analysis
Partnerships
Staffing
Risk Analysis
Plan Milestones
Financial Data

BUSINESS PLAN

28
Village Outsourcing Changes Lives
Higher income of villagers through processing
value-add and higher prices for crops
Brings value to harvest losses, including
undersized or excess crops
Improves local food security by preserving food
from season of plenty to season of scarcity
Creates income opportunities for women
beyond farming

If it pays
it stays

Assists vulnerable children and HIV+ people
with improved nutrition
29
Village Outsourcing Changes Food
Enables solar drying: a ‘green’ solution
that has marketing value and reduces
processing costs
Shifts value downstream: increasing
the income of villagers and reduces
labor processing costs
Simplifies and reduces shipping and
packaging across the value
chain, including from the farm

New Product
UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW
Development PRODUCTS
Opportunities

30
Competitive Advantages
for Business Model
Distributed Resources
• Capital
investment, labor, energy
savings, and SCALE of
Existing dried food
1,000’s of villagers
processors are small, of
limited capacity, and
unsophisticated
marketing

Diverse Products
• Wide variety of available
raw foods expands product
line

Traditional processers
(e.g. tomato paste
canning) have high
costs of
capital, operations, and
packaging

Local climates
• Effective for food drying

31
Key Partnerships
Reservoir

NGOs

Finance
SUA
Partners In
Food
Solutions

• Distributor of high-efficiency food dryer
• Leverage existing formed groups, including
possible group finance, support of field
costs (interested partners include
MUVI, fintrac, Africare, Care, Concern, etc.)
• Local banks (TIB) provides finance of input
cash flow needs
• Provides technical advice on training
manual , food safety, etc.
• General Mills food scientists provide expert
assistance.
32
Shared
Success

Reservoir
needs
guaranteed
market to
arrange for
finance and
drive dryer
sales

Sunborn
needs dryer
sales to
provide dried
foods for
processing

33
1. Reservoir and Sunborn go to
scale together

6. Dried goods have increased
market distribution time

2. Start with local markets

Tomatoes: Going to Scale
5. Over time farmers add drying
capacity & shift use for dry –
based on opportunity

3. Farmers sell fresh produce on
own & dry excess (harvest losses)
for separate sale

4. Pearl and NGO partners help
farmers increase farm production
over time

34
Marketing (Volunteers
Managed by Cheetah Yr. 1)
Food Science and Product
Development (Assisted by
SUA)

Sales and Distribution
Manager

Staffing
Assistant (Year 2)

Field Sales Person (Year 2)

CEO (Cheetah in Yr. 1)
Factory Operations
Manager

Cheetah holds down
initial costs by
outsourcing services in
early stage companies

Factory Workers 1 (Yr 1),
5 (Yr 2), 13 (Yr 3)

Field Management: Input
Procurement

Field Liaison (Year 2)

Accounting (Outsourced to
Cheetah indefinitely)

35
Year 1 Plan Milestones
1. Select factory site, procure equipment, install, and
begin operations
2. Contract with local groups to supply inputs; by end of
year 1 engage with at least 2000 drying entrepreneurs
3. Obtain food safety certifications
4. Test market target products and develop starting
product offering
5. Establish relationships with at least three major
wholesale buyers
6. Find distribution channels for snack foods
7. By end of year 1, recruit CEO preferably with
investment
36
Years 2-3 Plan Milestones
1. Expand production and trial new products for possible
product line expansion
2. Partner with NGOs to offer elsewhere
3. Consider export potential

37
Forecast Production Dependencies
Production
Number of Farmers Yr End
Monthly Avg Number of Farmers

Raw kilos dried
Dried kilos output
Raw Kilos/Farmer/In Year
Raw Kilos/Day
Farmer Estimated Annual
Income USD

Year 1
493
253

146,246
14,625
578
3.2
1,445

Year 2
1,773
1,105

Year 3
3,309
2,672

613,329 1,716,637
61,333
171,664
555
643
3.0
3.5
1,387

1,606
3 Year Forecast P&L
1,100,000
900,000
700,000
500,000
300,000
100,000
-100,000

Year 1
Revenue

Year 2
Expenses

Year 3

Net Profit w/VAT
OPERATIONAL CASH FLOW EXCLUSIVE OF
INVESTMENTS/LOANS
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0

-20,000

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

-40,000
-60,000
Cash Flow Min Month

Cash Flow Max Month
Investment Sources and Uses
Sources of Cash
Donor Funded
Outside Investors
Local Investors
Total Investment At Start

Input Cash Flow Loan in Yrs 2 & 3
Uses of Cash
Capital Expenses
Startup Running Costs
Input Cash Flow

USD
30,000
150,000
50,000
230,000

300,000

80,000
120,000
300,000

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Dried Food Processing Factory Plan (March 2014)

  • 1. Dried Food Processing from Market Development Unlocking Opportunity to Change Lives 1
  • 2. Underlying Problems Cheetah’s Investment Approach Concept Description BACKGROUND 2
  • 3. Underlying Problems: 4 Halves of the Have-Nots Solution: A food processor that turns harvest losses to an advantage 3
  • 4. Cheetah’s Investment Strategy Integrated Development Equation: ideq Crops (Harvest Losses) Food Drying, Processing, Marketing New Opportunity Cash, Food Security, & Improved Nutrition 4
  • 5. Concept Summary Simple, reliable food safety, culturally Solar-based familiar, and drying is low cost oldest storage ‘processing’ technology New drying technology allows opportunity for scale Provides life changing impact in rural villages 5
  • 7. Mission Why • Increase food security, decrease hunger and malnutrition, and create opportunity for poor families… How • by enabling large scale drying of local foods through value-added management into markets of value… What • through further processing, product development, certifications, marketing and distribution… Who • based on a supply chain sourcing these dried foods from local village groups. 7
  • 8. Three Value Chain Components Grass Roots Development Led by partner NGOs including MUVI, fintrac, Cheetah, Africare, Care, Concern and others Distribution of Technology and Capacity Building Processing & Sales Led by Reservoir with program Formation or leverage of existing support from SUA and NGOs Led by new startup named farmer cooperatives, women’s Contract manufacture and Sunborn Foods groups, savings associations, etc. distribution of solar dryers. Contract purchasing of dried Concept introductions, capacity Distribution through local food from farmer groups building (programmatic or franchisee shops financial support) Processing, packaging, Training materials and training marketing and sales of dried Improved agronomy leadership on dryer use, food foods Group based not individual processing, and food safety management 8
  • 9. Business Model 1. Contract with food drying groups to purchase their outputs 2. Partner with distributor of dryers (Reservoir) and NGOs to connect with village based food drying groups 3. Establish food processing factory using simple and affordable processing technologies to reduce investment requirements in early years 9
  • 10. Approach Be a leading processor and marketer of solar dried foods. 1. Leverage distributed solar capacity of 1000s of village based dryers 2. Provide capacity building in technology including food science, recipes, and food safety 3. Purchase village dried fruits and vegetables providing reliable, guaranteed market 4. Provide processing, marketing and distribution of dried food products 10
  • 11. Strategies 1. Produce high quality, highly nutritious and safe products 2. Keep processing model simple and low-cost 3. Obtain various certifications 4. Where appropriate, mill products into usable flours, teas and herbs 5. Markets: snacks, local packaged foods, ingredient to other product manufacturers, special attention on unique flour products 11
  • 12. The Four Ps of Marketing: Product Price Place Promotion MARKETING 12
  • 13. • Pay attention to the 4 Ps! • Distribution systems lacking: – Identify wholesale opportunities – Be product friendly to informal sector – Create multilayer distribution with profit for every layer Avoiding Common Local Marketing Mistakes • Biggest impediment to success is scale: market is big but local producers are small (is reason why imports are prevalent) so plan to achieve scale • Be wary of preference for “cultural sensitization” and conduct aggressive customer focused marketing • Competition is international – is needed quality level • Start local; export markets are difficult to meet standards and expensive to support 13
  • 14. PRODUCT: Foods Able to be Dried • • • • • • • • • • • Potatoes Cassava Bananas Sweet Potatoes Other Staples Tomatoes Mangos Pineapples Apples Pears Other Fruits • • • • • • • • • Pumpkins • Carrots • Onions • Garlic • Hot and other • Peppers • Other Vegetables • Spinach • Rosemary Other Herbs and Leaves Hibiscus Lemon Grass Tea Leaves Ground Nuts Cocoa Vanilla Meat And much more! 14
  • 15. PRODUCT: Dried Foods Currently Available in Scale: FLAVORS • • • • • • • • • • • Potatoes Cassava Bananas Sweet Potatoes Other Staples Tomatoes Mangos Pineapples Apples Pears Other Fruits • • • • • • • • • Pumpkins • Carrots • Onions • Garlic • Hot and other • Peppers • Other Vegetables • Spinach • Rosemary Other Herbs and Leaves Hibiscus Lemon Grass Tea Leaves Ground Nuts Cocoa Vanilla Meat And much more! 15
  • 16. PRODUCT: Large Scale Food Processing Typical Food Factories: Food Drying: – Expensive Packaging + Cheap packaging – Ship water weight (expensive) + Cheap shipping + Massive scale possible in central location + Compete processing in minutes to hours + Energy intensive – Difficult to take to scale centrally – Complete processing in hours to days – Energy efficient  New Dryer design overcomes these problems by outsourcing to villages so NEW PRODUCT 16 OPPORTUNITIES
  • 17. PRODUCT: Tomatoes & Onions are Priority (General Situation) • New dryer design allows for widespread village use – enabling drying of tomatoes and onions for first time • Tomatoes and onions (flavorings) have highest local demand differential • Flavorings most successful drying application across all food commodities • Tomatoes (plus onions, garlic) largest flavoring ingredients: ketchup, sauces, ingredients used 17
  • 18. PRODUCT: Tomatoes & Onions are Priority (Specific Situation) • 70% of tomato production is in Iringa • Plus large Iringa crops of onions and garlic • MUVI has organized and registered 5600 tomato farmers (and growing) • Fintrac has local presence and expertise in tomatoes • Cheetah’s Reservoir and Sunborn Foods to begin operations in Iringa 18
  • 19. CONFIDENTIAL PRODUCT Tomatoes: Major New Product Opportunity • Launch tomato flavorings in a dried form (as is common to flavorings) • Compete through substantially lower processing costs and seasonal demand differential • Launch powdered ketchup, chili sauces, and plain tomato flour • IMPORTANT: Apparent risks are in execution not market opportunity 19
  • 20. PRODUCT: Not Only Tomatoes Fruit based snack foods considered 2nd largest opportunity: massive harvest losses, high demand differential, high profit margins, widespread crop availability, matches snack food input purchasing pattern • Farmers can use dryers for a wide variety of products to expand opportunity, increase income, improve food security • Sunborn needs broader product line to leverage factory investment in tomato off-season Potatoes and cassava 3rd: large local market size, significant post harvest losses, growing demand for potatoes, use as ingredient in other foods Weaning foods, nutrition improvement solutions are next based on NGO distribution support 20
  • 21. PLACE: Start Local Why think about exports when local demand is high, malnutrition prevalent and food is being imported? (Only reason is that western markets have distribution structures.) Real need is local so start local. It gives opportunity to go to scale and improve quality. 1. Start with local markets – in the company’s own region 2. When successful expand in concentric rings 3. Buyers in big cities require scale and high quality – avoid until prepared 4. Go to East African nations next 5. Western nations last – they have difficult standards and expensive sales process 21
  • 22. PLACE: Key Local Buyers Many of the buyers are already defined by the PRODUCT component of the Marketing Plan. However: the following are the key segments: • Snack foods to local shops and casual vendors through the company and distributors to be identified • Bulk flavorings to wholesale processors (already in communication with Tropical Heat) • Midsized packages to Supermarkets and restaurants • Experiment with daily use packaging for rural areas • Bulk to NGOs using for nutritional supplements 22
  • 23. PRICE: Local Situation • Be aware of price sensitivity to pricing thresholds (like 500 and 1000 shillings for snack foods) • Consider buyers who purchase a day’s supply, especially in rural areas • Processed foods have fixed prices even if inputs are varying in cost seasonally • Be ready to serve a multilayered distribution system with profit for every tier 23
  • 24. PRICE: Demand Price Survey Scarce to Plenty: Market Demand Differential 100% 80% Farm Margin Scarce to Plenty 60% Market Margin Scarce to Plenty Tomatoes (and Onions) win! 40% 20% 0% Tomatoes (Top Flavoring Staple) Key Flavoring Staples Fruits Primary Starch Staples Secondary Snack Food Starch Sources Staples 24
  • 25. PRICE: Possible False Assumption With every processed food (except maize) we can demonstrate that the market price has little to do with the plenty to scarce differential. PROCESSING IS NOT BEING USED AS STORAGE TO OVERCOME THE PLENTY TO SCARCE PRICE DIFFERENTIAL OF UNPROCESSED FOODS.) 25
  • 26. PRICE: Processing Margins Survey Processing Gross Margins Conclusions: • High gross margins available for all intensively processed foods (80-95%) • Only maize is seasonally adjusted • Many inputs are bought in plenty season and then processed through the year • Oil processing is impacted by large amount of imports (60%) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% Farm Plenty Source Market Scarce Source 20% 0% -20% 26
  • 27. PROMOTION: Usual Methods The usual promotional methods will be used: • Western quality logos (and near western grade packaging except in small packs) • Sales people with face-to-face contact • Sample packs and sidewalk tasting promotions • Advertising but linked to measurable performance results 27
  • 28. Competitive Analysis Partnerships Staffing Risk Analysis Plan Milestones Financial Data BUSINESS PLAN 28
  • 29. Village Outsourcing Changes Lives Higher income of villagers through processing value-add and higher prices for crops Brings value to harvest losses, including undersized or excess crops Improves local food security by preserving food from season of plenty to season of scarcity Creates income opportunities for women beyond farming If it pays it stays Assists vulnerable children and HIV+ people with improved nutrition 29
  • 30. Village Outsourcing Changes Food Enables solar drying: a ‘green’ solution that has marketing value and reduces processing costs Shifts value downstream: increasing the income of villagers and reduces labor processing costs Simplifies and reduces shipping and packaging across the value chain, including from the farm New Product UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW Development PRODUCTS Opportunities 30
  • 31. Competitive Advantages for Business Model Distributed Resources • Capital investment, labor, energy savings, and SCALE of Existing dried food 1,000’s of villagers processors are small, of limited capacity, and unsophisticated marketing Diverse Products • Wide variety of available raw foods expands product line Traditional processers (e.g. tomato paste canning) have high costs of capital, operations, and packaging Local climates • Effective for food drying 31
  • 32. Key Partnerships Reservoir NGOs Finance SUA Partners In Food Solutions • Distributor of high-efficiency food dryer • Leverage existing formed groups, including possible group finance, support of field costs (interested partners include MUVI, fintrac, Africare, Care, Concern, etc.) • Local banks (TIB) provides finance of input cash flow needs • Provides technical advice on training manual , food safety, etc. • General Mills food scientists provide expert assistance. 32
  • 33. Shared Success Reservoir needs guaranteed market to arrange for finance and drive dryer sales Sunborn needs dryer sales to provide dried foods for processing 33
  • 34. 1. Reservoir and Sunborn go to scale together 6. Dried goods have increased market distribution time 2. Start with local markets Tomatoes: Going to Scale 5. Over time farmers add drying capacity & shift use for dry – based on opportunity 3. Farmers sell fresh produce on own & dry excess (harvest losses) for separate sale 4. Pearl and NGO partners help farmers increase farm production over time 34
  • 35. Marketing (Volunteers Managed by Cheetah Yr. 1) Food Science and Product Development (Assisted by SUA) Sales and Distribution Manager Staffing Assistant (Year 2) Field Sales Person (Year 2) CEO (Cheetah in Yr. 1) Factory Operations Manager Cheetah holds down initial costs by outsourcing services in early stage companies Factory Workers 1 (Yr 1), 5 (Yr 2), 13 (Yr 3) Field Management: Input Procurement Field Liaison (Year 2) Accounting (Outsourced to Cheetah indefinitely) 35
  • 36. Year 1 Plan Milestones 1. Select factory site, procure equipment, install, and begin operations 2. Contract with local groups to supply inputs; by end of year 1 engage with at least 2000 drying entrepreneurs 3. Obtain food safety certifications 4. Test market target products and develop starting product offering 5. Establish relationships with at least three major wholesale buyers 6. Find distribution channels for snack foods 7. By end of year 1, recruit CEO preferably with investment 36
  • 37. Years 2-3 Plan Milestones 1. Expand production and trial new products for possible product line expansion 2. Partner with NGOs to offer elsewhere 3. Consider export potential 37
  • 38. Forecast Production Dependencies Production Number of Farmers Yr End Monthly Avg Number of Farmers Raw kilos dried Dried kilos output Raw Kilos/Farmer/In Year Raw Kilos/Day Farmer Estimated Annual Income USD Year 1 493 253 146,246 14,625 578 3.2 1,445 Year 2 1,773 1,105 Year 3 3,309 2,672 613,329 1,716,637 61,333 171,664 555 643 3.0 3.5 1,387 1,606
  • 39. 3 Year Forecast P&L 1,100,000 900,000 700,000 500,000 300,000 100,000 -100,000 Year 1 Revenue Year 2 Expenses Year 3 Net Profit w/VAT
  • 40. OPERATIONAL CASH FLOW EXCLUSIVE OF INVESTMENTS/LOANS 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 -40,000 -60,000 Cash Flow Min Month Cash Flow Max Month
  • 41. Investment Sources and Uses Sources of Cash Donor Funded Outside Investors Local Investors Total Investment At Start Input Cash Flow Loan in Yrs 2 & 3 Uses of Cash Capital Expenses Startup Running Costs Input Cash Flow USD 30,000 150,000 50,000 230,000 300,000 80,000 120,000 300,000

Editor's Notes

  1. Demand differential shows market willingness to pay premium price for food when scarceSurvey demand differential are remarkably consistent by food typeTomatoes and onions are the clear and substantial winners in surveyFarmers tend to get a higher percentage of the demand differential (surprise)
  2. Local climate advantages for drying include: dry season, low humidity, high altitude, long days, high solar gain