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Breeding foresight workshop:

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Presentation at a workshop convened by CCAFS Learning Platform 1 in Rome, Italy, on 19-20 February 2019.

Published in: Environment
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Breeding foresight workshop:

  1. 1. Foresight and breeding in view of climate change Thoughts
  2. 2. Who we you want to inform? • Funders < > individual breeders? • What is the value of the question that we want to answer? • Marco questions are more interesting than micro questions • CGIAR in collaboration with strong partners
  3. 3. IFPRI study for Crops to End Hunger Initiative – Gap Analysis • The assumed productivity increase is the sum of breeding + agronomy + input/output value chain development (incl seed systems) + extension / farmer know-how + policy interventions. • The role of local prices versus international prices influences the results / issue of thin markets and assumed prices. • Where and for what crops is breeding the limiting factor? Where are value chain driven seed systems and adoption the issue? • What is business as usual? In view of dis-investments by funders
  4. 4. IFPRI study for Crops to End Hunger Initiative – Gap Analysis Feasibility and opportunities • New scientific opportunities • The technical feasibility of achieving increased productivity through genetics and breeding • Likelihood of high rates of adoption of new varieties with product profiles that respond to farmers’ requirements and consumer preferences Role of the CGIAR • The comparative advantage of the CGIAR Centers and programs • Availability of other providers: private sector, NARS
  5. 5. CC and breeding – Different value propositions by breeding • Yield increase • Same yield, shorter seasons, multiple crops, supporting sustainable intensification • Compensations for higher temperatures / Yield increase • Alternative: use of more lands / reduced ag production in the tropics / trade • Less yield decrease under droughts • Less yield decrease under pests and disease • Alternative: shortages, higher local prices, hunger • Nutritional traits and quality traits / changes in consumer demands
  6. 6. CC and breeding – Higher level perspective CC impact on people • Shift in crop and animal production due to climate change between low, middle and high income countries > Rural employment, Local food prices, Import/export • Impact on people in agriculture and rural areas: Migration in search for income and livelihood opportunities, due to eroded livelihoods (water, salinity) Prioritized interventions to prevent the shift in agricultural production, ensure and improve livelihoods • Prioritized need for ag interventions • Prioritized need for breeding: Shifts in maturity, drought and heat tolerance, nutritional value, disease resistance

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