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Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: Ringler. ARDD2012 Rio.
 

Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: Ringler. ARDD2012 Rio.

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Presentation by Claudia Ringler, IFPRI, at the 2012 Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) in Rio de Janiero, Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: “Technology’s potential for addressing ...

Presentation by Claudia Ringler, IFPRI, at the 2012 Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) in Rio de Janiero, Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: “Technology’s potential for addressing sustainable productivity increases’. http://www.agricultureday.org

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    Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: Ringler. ARDD2012 Rio. Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: Ringler. ARDD2012 Rio. Presentation Transcript

    • Role of technology in achieving sustainable intensification? How to Achieve Food Security in a World of Growing Scarcity: Role of Technology Development Strategies Claudia Ringler IFPRI ARDD, June 18, 2012
    • Agricultural TechnologiesPotential to improve: Agricultural production & consumption Food security Trade Environmental qualityStalled by: Polarized debate on high intensity vs. low input Lack of understanding of the impacts of specific technologies at a disaggregated level
    • Technology Assessment Scope Global & Regional • Zero Tillage Nine Technologies • Integrated Soil Fertility Management Three Crops • Irrigation Technologies • Wheat • Water Harvesting • Rice • Drought Tolerance • Heat tolerance • Maize • Nitrogen Use Efficiency • Precision Agriculture • Laser Land Leveling • Organic Agriculture
    • Yield gap report + database Technology reports Survey results Yield gaps and How technologies impact factors causing them yield gaps DSSAT Crop modeling Impacts of technologies on yields/ yield gaps Policy environment report IMPACT modeling How policies affect technology Impacts of technology scenarios on food adoption security, trade, etc. Recommendations
    • DSSAT – Crop Modeling System
    • Management Scenarios Baseline • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate • For maize, location-specific yield discount factor due to unmanaged pest damage where Bt maize is not adopted • Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted • Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting window • Conventional tillage • Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones Technology scenarios • Specific representation of each technology • Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology Climate change scenario in 2050 • MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)
    • Crop Model Results: MaizeRainfed Maize Irrigated Maize Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
    • Crop Model Results: RiceRainfed Rice Irrigated Rice Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
    • Crop Model Results: WheatRainfed Wheat Irrigated Wheat Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
    • Change in irrigation water use by regionIMPROVED IRRIGATIONTECHNOLOGIES Irrigation was triggered whenever crop needed water (automatic). Improved irrigation technologies effectively saved water. Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
    • Linking DSSAT & IMPACTDSSAT IMPACT Technology strategy (combination of Food demand different practices) and supply Effects on Global prices Corresponding and trade geographically Food security differentiated yield and effects malnutrition
    • Percent Change in World Prices ofMaize between 2010 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Percent Change in World Prices ofRice between 2000 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Percent Change in World Prices ofWheat between 2010 and 2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per cap per day between 2010 and 2050 Percent change from 2010 to 2050 12.0% 10.0% Reference (MIROC A1b) 8.0% Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Integrated SFM 6.0% No Till N Use Efficiency 4.0% Precision Ag 2.0% 0.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished Children 2050, compared to reference run Percent difference from reference in 20500.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5% Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance-2.0% Integrated SFM-2.5% No Till N Use Efficiency-3.0% Precision Ag-3.5%-4.0%-4.5%-5.0% Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
    • Conclusions Agricultural technology investments—including both “advanced” and “traditional” technologies/management practices are a game changer in terms of yield improvements and national and global food security Alternative technologies increase water productivity, nutrient use efficiency, energy efficiency, and YIELD (but not everywhere). Overall gains for both people and the environment are large
    • Conclusions Suitable technologies will only “work” if farmers have the capacity (and freedom) to adopt; requires conducive institutions, regulatory framework, political will and rural infrastructure Implementation will also require increased partnerships between the public and private sectors and civil society