Presentation by Claudia Ringler, IFPRI, at the 2012 Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) in Rio de Janiero, Learning Event No. 6, Session 1: “Technology’s potential for addressing sustainable productivity increases’. http://www.agricultureday.org

1. Role of technology in achieving
sustainable intensification?
How to Achieve Food Security in a
World of Growing Scarcity:
Role of Technology Development
Strategies
Claudia Ringler
IFPRI
ARDD, June 18, 2012

2. Agricultural Technologies
Potential to improve:
 Agricultural production &
consumption
 Food security
 Trade
 Environmental quality
Stalled by:
 Polarized debate on high
intensity vs. low input
 Lack of understanding of
the impacts of specific
technologies at a
disaggregated level

3. Technology Assessment Scope
 Global & Regional • Zero Tillage
 Nine Technologies • Integrated Soil Fertility
Management
 Three Crops • Irrigation Technologies
• Wheat • Water Harvesting
• Rice • Drought Tolerance
• Heat tolerance
• Maize
• Nitrogen Use Efficiency
• Precision Agriculture
• Laser Land Leveling
• Organic Agriculture

4. Yield gap report + database Technology reports Survey results
Yield gaps and How technologies impact
factors causing them yield gaps
DSSAT Crop modeling
Impacts of technologies on yields/
yield gaps
Policy environment
report
IMPACT modeling
How policies affect technology
Impacts of technology scenarios on food
adoption
security, trade, etc.
Recommendations

5. DSSAT – Crop Modeling System

6. Management Scenarios
 Baseline
• Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate
• For maize, location-specific yield discount factor due to
unmanaged pest damage where Bt maize is not adopted
• Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted
• Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting window
• Conventional tillage
• Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones
 Technology scenarios
• Specific representation of each technology
• Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology
 Climate change scenario in 2050
• MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)

7. Crop Model Results: Maize
Rainfed Maize Irrigated Maize
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012

8. Crop Model Results: Rice
Rainfed Rice Irrigated Rice
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012

9. Crop Model Results: Wheat
Rainfed Wheat Irrigated Wheat
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012

10. Change in irrigation water use by region
IMPROVED IRRIGATION
TECHNOLOGIES
 Irrigation was triggered whenever
crop needed water (automatic).
 Improved irrigation technologies
effectively saved water.
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012

11. Linking DSSAT & IMPACT
DSSAT IMPACT
Technology strategy
(combination of Food demand
different practices) and supply
Effects on
Global prices
Corresponding and trade
geographically Food security
differentiated yield and
effects malnutrition

12. Percent Change in World Prices of
Maize between 2010 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012

13. Percent Change in World Prices of
Rice between 2000 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012

14. Percent Change in World Prices of
Wheat between 2010 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012

15. Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per cap
per day between 2010 and 2050
Percent change from 2010 to 2050
12.0%
10.0%
Reference (MIROC A1b)
8.0% Drought Tolerance
Heat Tolerance
Integrated SFM
6.0%
No Till
N Use Efficiency
4.0% Precision Ag
2.0%
0.0%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012

16. Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished
Children 2050, compared to reference run
Percent difference from reference in 2050
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5% Drought Tolerance
Heat Tolerance
-2.0%
Integrated SFM
-2.5% No Till
N Use Efficiency
-3.0%
Precision Ag
-3.5%
-4.0%
-4.5%
-5.0%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012

17. Conclusions
 Agricultural technology investments—including
both “advanced” and “traditional”
technologies/management practices are a game
changer in terms of yield improvements
and national and global food security
 Alternative technologies increase water
productivity, nutrient use efficiency, energy
efficiency, and YIELD (but not everywhere).
Overall gains for both people and the
environment are large

18. Conclusions
 Suitable technologies will only “work” if farmers
have the capacity (and freedom) to adopt;
requires conducive institutions, regulatory
framework, political will and rural infrastructure
 Implementation will also require increased
partnerships between the public and private
sectors and civil society