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S.Vermeulen - Brussels Briefing - 2012-09-27

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During the latest Brussels Briefing, organised by The Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA) in September, Sonja Vermeulen held a presentation on Smallholder agriculture under climate change: Challenges and outlook.

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S.Vermeulen - Brussels Briefing - 2012-09-27

  1. 1. Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012 Smallholder agriculture under climate change: challenges and outlook Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
  2. 2. Impacts
  3. 3. 4 degrees by 2100 is likely
  4. 4. Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and rainfall Length  of  growing   period  (%)     >20%  loss   To 2090, taking 14 5-­‐20%  loss   climate models No  change   5-­‐20%  gain   >20%  gain   Four degree riseThornton  et  al.  2010  
  5. 5. Impacts 2: Increasingfrequency and intensity of extreme weather events Pulwaty 2010
  6. 6. Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems and livelihoods 2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario Cheung et al 2010
  7. 7. Impacts 4: Poorest at risk By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia (uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socio- economic models)Lloyd  et  al.  2011    Environmental  Health  PerspecEves  
  8. 8. Becoming“climate smart”
  9. 9. GHG CO2-eq tonne Food per capita security 25 20 15 10 5 0 US Malawi Adaptation Ecological footprint“Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context
  10. 10. Adaptation
  11. 11. Adaptive capacity TechnologyIncome & assets Infrastructure Knowledge & Governance skills Access & to institutions information Social capital
  12. 12. Key adaptation strategiesØ Incremental adaptation to progressive climate change•  Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification)•  Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030sØ Climate risk management•  Technologies (e.g. flood control)•  Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance)•  Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts)Ø Transformative adaptation•  Changing production systems•  Changing livelihood portfolios
  13. 13. •  Example: Climate Adapting to analogue tool long-term•  Identifies the range of places whose current climate climates correspond to trends the future of a chosen locality•  These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials
  14. 14. Example: Climate services•  Met services produce forecast information downscaled in space & time Adapting•  Farmers & met services to greater work together to ensure forecasts meet local climate needs variability
  15. 15. To transformational adaptation?•  Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities•  Agricultural diversification, or shifts•  Livelihood diversification, or shifts•  Migration
  16. 16. Summary points
  17. 17. Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture:•  Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed•  Are unevenly distributed geographically•  Depend on household and national capacities and contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats•  Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and health among poorer households
  18. 18. Responding with climate-smart agriculture:•  Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience•  Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development•  Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins”•  Must be “landscape-smart” too•  Will not solve future food security on its own (need actions on distribution, diets, waste)
  19. 19. www.ccafs.cgiar.orgsign up for news on agriculture & climate change follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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