The document summarizes CBO's updated budget and economic projections from 2021 to 2031. It finds that primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029, while net interest costs will rise from 1.3% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031 due to mounting federal debt. The projected 2021 deficit has increased by a third due to recent legislation. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946. Outlays are projected to climb after 2024 as Social Security and healthcare costs rise along with interest rates, while revenues remain relatively flat, resulting in large deficits and rising debt levels.
This presentation summarizes the Congressional Budget Office's long-term budget projections. It finds that U.S. debt held by the public is close to historical highs and is expected to increase rapidly in coming decades under current law. Net spending on interest and major health and retirement programs are projected to rise significantly as a share of the economy, contributing to growing deficits and debt levels that could exceed 200% of GDP by 2051.
Phillip L. Swagel presents an overview of the 2021 long-term budget outlook to the Conference Board on May 20, 2021. The presentation discusses CBO projections that show growing deficits driving federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels over 30 years, reaching over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest payments account for most growth in total deficits in later decades. Faster economic and productivity growth could reduce debt levels compared to current projections of slower potential GDP growth.
In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. Continued strength in the demand for labor keeps the unemployment rate low and drives employment and wages higher. If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the next decade, roughly the same rate as its potential growth.
The Congressional Budget Office presentation discusses projections of growing US federal debt levels through 2051 if current laws do not change. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach over 200% of GDP by 2051, the highest in US history, driven by rising budget deficits as spending grows faster than revenues. Spending increases are primarily for Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the debt as interest rates are expected to exceed economic growth in later decades.
Phillip L. Swagel presented CBO's updated budget and economic projections to J.P. Morgan's Virtual Investor Meeting on July 20, 2021. According to the projections, primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029 and increase to 3% thereafter. Despite low interest rates through 2023, net interest costs will rise from 1.3% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031. The projected deficit for 2021 increased by a third due to recently enacted legislation, while projected cumulative deficits for 2022-2031 were largely unchanged. Federal debt is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946.
The document summarizes CBO's updated budget and economic projections from 2021 to 2031. It finds that primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029, while net interest costs will rise from 1.3% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031 due to mounting federal debt. The projected 2021 deficit has increased by a third due to recent legislation. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946. Outlays are projected to climb after 2024 as Social Security and healthcare costs rise along with interest rates, while revenues remain relatively flat, resulting in large deficits and rising debt levels.
This presentation summarizes the Congressional Budget Office's long-term budget projections. It finds that U.S. debt held by the public is close to historical highs and is expected to increase rapidly in coming decades under current law. Net spending on interest and major health and retirement programs are projected to rise significantly as a share of the economy, contributing to growing deficits and debt levels that could exceed 200% of GDP by 2051.
Phillip L. Swagel presents an overview of the 2021 long-term budget outlook to the Conference Board on May 20, 2021. The presentation discusses CBO projections that show growing deficits driving federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels over 30 years, reaching over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest payments account for most growth in total deficits in later decades. Faster economic and productivity growth could reduce debt levels compared to current projections of slower potential GDP growth.
In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. Continued strength in the demand for labor keeps the unemployment rate low and drives employment and wages higher. If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the next decade, roughly the same rate as its potential growth.
The Congressional Budget Office presentation discusses projections of growing US federal debt levels through 2051 if current laws do not change. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach over 200% of GDP by 2051, the highest in US history, driven by rising budget deficits as spending grows faster than revenues. Spending increases are primarily for Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the debt as interest rates are expected to exceed economic growth in later decades.
Phillip L. Swagel presented CBO's updated budget and economic projections to J.P. Morgan's Virtual Investor Meeting on July 20, 2021. According to the projections, primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029 and increase to 3% thereafter. Despite low interest rates through 2023, net interest costs will rise from 1.3% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031. The projected deficit for 2021 increased by a third due to recently enacted legislation, while projected cumulative deficits for 2022-2031 were largely unchanged. Federal debt is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Phillip Swagel, Director of CBO, presented on CBO's budget and economic analysis during the pandemic. Key points included:
- CBO estimated the budgetary effects of major COVID relief laws from 2020-2021, which increased the deficit by trillions of dollars.
- Relief programs like PPP and enhanced unemployment benefits boosted GDP but also increased the deficit.
- The pandemic led to employment losses and reduced health insurance coverage in 2020.
- CBO continues to analyze the pandemic's impacts on health care spending, the labor market, and the broader economy.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
CBO analyzes how climate change and climate policy affect the US economy and federal budget. It projects that climate change will gradually reduce real GDP growth and lower GDP by 1% in 2050 versus no climate change. It estimates effects on growth from changes in weather patterns and increased hurricane damage. A $25/ton carbon tax, rising 2% annually, would reduce greenhouse gas emissions while raising $66 billion initially, growing to $127 billion in revenues by 2028.
This document summarizes Phillip L. Swagel's presentation to the National Association for Business Economics on March 23, 2021 about the Congressional Budget Office's 2021 long-term budget outlook. It projects that growing deficits will drive federal debt held by the public to over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest costs are projected to account for most of the growth in total deficits in the last two decades. Individual income tax increases are projected to account for most of the rise in total revenues relative to GDP through 2051.
Under current law, the Congressional Budget Office projects that deficits will increase over the next few years and remain above the 50-year average through 2028. Revenues are expected to rise as a percentage of GDP due to scheduled tax changes and economic growth, but spending on Social Security and Medicare will also increase, pushing up mandatory outlays. As a result, federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 78% of GDP in 2018 to 96% by 2028, which would be the highest since 1946. An alternative scenario in which current policies are maintained could result in debt reaching 105% of GDP by 2028.
If current laws governing taxes and spending did not change, the condition of the federal budget would worsen considerably over the next three decades. Growth in federal spending would continue to outpace growth in federal revenues, leading to ever-larger budget deficits.
CBO projects that federal spending on the major health care programs would grow larger than spending in any other category if current laws generally remained unchanged. Driven particularly by growth in Medicare outlays, spending on those programs would account for 40 percent of federal noninterest spending in 2047, compared with 28 percent today. Two factors explain the projected growth in spending on major health care programs: aging of the population and rising health care costs per person (that is, excess cost growth).
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at a conference organized by the Center for Sustainable Health Spending.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Seminar on Forecasting at George Washington University.
Under current law, CBO projects that economic activity will expand at a modest pace this year and then grow more slowly in subsequent years.
The document summarizes the Congressional Budget Office's 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook press briefing by Director Douglas Elmendorf on September 17, 2013. It includes charts on federal debt held by the public, components of federal spending, total spending and revenues, and other budget projections under different assumptions. The document concludes that the budget is on an unsustainable path and that lawmakers face choices in the magnitude, policies, and timing of deficit reduction.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
The Congressional Budget Office briefing discusses projections for the US budget and economy from 2018 to 2028. Deficits are projected to increase in the next few years before stabilizing above their 50-year average throughout the period. Real GDP growth is projected to average 1.9% over the period, with the 2017 tax act providing a temporary boost averaging 0.7% annually. Accumulating deficits will cause federal debt held by the public to rise from 78% of GDP currently to 96% by 2028, the highest level since 1946.
This document summarizes how the Congressional Budget Office prepares long-term projections of federal spending on Social Security and major health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid. CBO uses an actuarial model to project spending for these programs based on historical trends in health care cost growth, population growth, and economic growth. CBO assumes the rate of excess health care cost growth will decline gradually over time to prevent unsustainably high projections of future spending.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Federal debt held by the public is projected to remain above 70% of GDP through 2023 under current law. Revenues are projected to rise from 17.5% of GDP in 2013 to around 19% of GDP from 2016-2023. Mandatory spending, driven by programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, is projected to increase from 13.1% of GDP in 2014 to 14.0% of GDP in 2022-2023. Discretionary spending is projected to decline slightly over the next few years but then rise, reaching 6.5% of GDP by 2023.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Phillip Swagel, Director of CBO, presented on CBO's budget and economic analysis during the pandemic. Key points included:
- CBO estimated the budgetary effects of major COVID relief laws from 2020-2021, which increased the deficit by trillions of dollars.
- Relief programs like PPP and enhanced unemployment benefits boosted GDP but also increased the deficit.
- The pandemic led to employment losses and reduced health insurance coverage in 2020.
- CBO continues to analyze the pandemic's impacts on health care spending, the labor market, and the broader economy.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
CBO analyzes how climate change and climate policy affect the US economy and federal budget. It projects that climate change will gradually reduce real GDP growth and lower GDP by 1% in 2050 versus no climate change. It estimates effects on growth from changes in weather patterns and increased hurricane damage. A $25/ton carbon tax, rising 2% annually, would reduce greenhouse gas emissions while raising $66 billion initially, growing to $127 billion in revenues by 2028.
This document summarizes Phillip L. Swagel's presentation to the National Association for Business Economics on March 23, 2021 about the Congressional Budget Office's 2021 long-term budget outlook. It projects that growing deficits will drive federal debt held by the public to over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest costs are projected to account for most of the growth in total deficits in the last two decades. Individual income tax increases are projected to account for most of the rise in total revenues relative to GDP through 2051.
Under current law, the Congressional Budget Office projects that deficits will increase over the next few years and remain above the 50-year average through 2028. Revenues are expected to rise as a percentage of GDP due to scheduled tax changes and economic growth, but spending on Social Security and Medicare will also increase, pushing up mandatory outlays. As a result, federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 78% of GDP in 2018 to 96% by 2028, which would be the highest since 1946. An alternative scenario in which current policies are maintained could result in debt reaching 105% of GDP by 2028.
If current laws governing taxes and spending did not change, the condition of the federal budget would worsen considerably over the next three decades. Growth in federal spending would continue to outpace growth in federal revenues, leading to ever-larger budget deficits.
CBO projects that federal spending on the major health care programs would grow larger than spending in any other category if current laws generally remained unchanged. Driven particularly by growth in Medicare outlays, spending on those programs would account for 40 percent of federal noninterest spending in 2047, compared with 28 percent today. Two factors explain the projected growth in spending on major health care programs: aging of the population and rising health care costs per person (that is, excess cost growth).
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at a conference organized by the Center for Sustainable Health Spending.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Seminar on Forecasting at George Washington University.
Under current law, CBO projects that economic activity will expand at a modest pace this year and then grow more slowly in subsequent years.
The document summarizes the Congressional Budget Office's 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook press briefing by Director Douglas Elmendorf on September 17, 2013. It includes charts on federal debt held by the public, components of federal spending, total spending and revenues, and other budget projections under different assumptions. The document concludes that the budget is on an unsustainable path and that lawmakers face choices in the magnitude, policies, and timing of deficit reduction.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
The Congressional Budget Office briefing discusses projections for the US budget and economy from 2018 to 2028. Deficits are projected to increase in the next few years before stabilizing above their 50-year average throughout the period. Real GDP growth is projected to average 1.9% over the period, with the 2017 tax act providing a temporary boost averaging 0.7% annually. Accumulating deficits will cause federal debt held by the public to rise from 78% of GDP currently to 96% by 2028, the highest level since 1946.
This document summarizes how the Congressional Budget Office prepares long-term projections of federal spending on Social Security and major health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid. CBO uses an actuarial model to project spending for these programs based on historical trends in health care cost growth, population growth, and economic growth. CBO assumes the rate of excess health care cost growth will decline gradually over time to prevent unsustainably high projections of future spending.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Federal debt held by the public is projected to remain above 70% of GDP through 2023 under current law. Revenues are projected to rise from 17.5% of GDP in 2013 to around 19% of GDP from 2016-2023. Mandatory spending, driven by programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, is projected to increase from 13.1% of GDP in 2014 to 14.0% of GDP in 2022-2023. Discretionary spending is projected to decline slightly over the next few years but then rise, reaching 6.5% of GDP by 2023.
CBO projects a 2019 deficit of $897 billion, equaling 4.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The projected shortfall (adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of certain payments) grows to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2029. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach $16.6 trillion at the end of 2019. That amount would equal 78 percent of GDP—nearly twice its average over the past 50 years. Debt is estimated to reach $28.7 trillion, or 93 percent of GDP, by 2029, a larger amount than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2029, reaching about 150 percent of GDP by 2049.
This document provides a summary of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) economic projections from 2020 to 2030. It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread economic disruption. The CBO projects a rapid economic recovery in the second half of 2020 and 2021, but unemployment will remain above pre-pandemic levels through 2030. GDP will recover to its pre-pandemic level by 2022 and continue growing at a moderate pace similar to the past decade. Inflation will be stable around 2% after 2024. Interest rates will also remain low through the decade. The projections are highly uncertain due to many factors related to the ongoing pandemic.
The document summarizes CBO projections for the US economy and federal budget. Key points include:
- Unemployment is projected to rise in early 2024 as economic growth slows. Inflation is projected to decline to the Fed's 2% goal by 2027.
- Primary deficits are projected to average 3.0% of GDP from 2024-2033, totaling around $10 trillion. Net interest costs are also projected to average 3.1% of GDP and total $10 trillion.
- Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 118% of GDP by 2033, the highest ever, and grow to 195% of GDP by 2053 if current policies continue.
In 3 sentences:
CBO projects that the federal budget deficit will continue to shrink in 2014 but federal debt will still be growing. If current laws generally remain unchanged, deficits will persist through 2024, pushing debt held by the public higher to 77% of GDP by 2024. Economic growth is expected to pick up over the next few years but then moderate, with the output gap closing by 2017.
Union Budget Preview - Reinforcement of Fiscal Stimulusemkayglobal
The Union Budget is round the corner and as it comes closer, speculation is getting rife. In this report we bring to you a preview into what you can expect from this year's budget and its impact in the ensuing period
The Congressional Budget Office presentation provides an overview of the US budget and economic outlook from 2018 to 2028. Key points include:
- Under current law, deficits will remain large as outlays and revenues increase in most years. Deficits will exceed their 50-year average throughout this period.
- Economic growth is projected to be faster in 2018 but then slow, with growth matching potential GDP after 2018.
- Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise significantly, reaching 96% of GDP by 2028, which would be the largest since 1946.
If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged, the federal budget deficit would grow substantially over the next few years, CBO projects, with accumulating deficits driving debt held by the public to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028. That amount would be far greater than the debt in any year since just after World War II.
In CBO’s projections, real GDP growth is relatively strong this year and next, as recent changes in fiscal policy add to existing momentum. Between 2018 and 2028, real GDP expands at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent: Productivity growth returns to nearly its average over the past 25 years and recent changes in fiscal policy boost incentives to work, save, and invest; nonetheless, economic growth is held down by slower growth of the labor force.
This presentation provides an overview of the agency’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on April 9. It also includes a discussion of the effects of the 2017 tax act on those projections.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the Delegation of the European Union to the United States.
The document summarizes the current challenges facing the Indian economy. It notes that two years of GDP growth have been lost, retail and wholesale inflation are rising, credit uptake in the commercial sector is poor, and government spending has been inadequate. The future threats include a possible third COVID wave slowing vaccination efforts and hindering economic recovery, as well as monetary policy hitting barriers as the heavy lifting has fallen to the RBI due to insufficient fiscal stimulus from the government.
The Congressional Budget Office presentation discusses:
1) Projections of growing budget deficits and debt levels through 2029, with deficits averaging 4.4% of GDP and debt held by the public rising to 96% of GDP.
2) The economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020, slower than recent years but still positive, with low unemployment and inflation.
3) Spending is projected to outpace revenue growth due to rising healthcare and interest costs, while tax cuts will increase deficits by $1.9 trillion from 2018-2028.
Obama Administration vs CBO fiscal forecastGaetan Lion
This presentation reviews the fiscal forecast from the Obama Administration released within the "A New Era of Responsibility" in February of 2009 and the related CBO analysis released in March of 2009.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged, the federal budget deficit would grow substantially over the next few years, CBO projects, with accumulating deficits driving debt held by the public to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028. That amount would be far greater than the debt in any year since just after World War II.
In CBO’s projections, real GDP growth is relatively strong this year and next, as recent changes in fiscal policy add to existing momentum. Between 2018 and 2028, real GDP expands at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent: Productivity growth returns to nearly its average over the past 25 years and recent changes in fiscal policy boost incentives to work, save, and invest; nonetheless, economic growth is held down by slower growth of the labor force.
This presentation provides an overview of the agency’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on April 9. It also includes a discussion of the effects of the 2017 tax act on those projections.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the Trustees of the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board.
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Fixed Income Forum 2019 Spring Roundtable.
A Deep Dive into the Indian Union Budget 2022aakash malhotra
What does the Union Budget 2022 mean for the Indian economy? Explore all the major announcements made by the Indian Finance Minister surrounding economic indicators, direct taxes, existing policies, indirect taxes and major industries. A detailed analysis by Deloitte experts. Everything you need to know in one place.
CBO supports the Congressional budget process by providing the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. From a macroeconomic perspective, CBO produces work in two areas. First, it provides baseline economic forecasts over 10- and 30-year projection windows. Second, it analyzes the short-term and longer-term effects on the overall economy of some proposed changes in federal tax and spending policies. This presentation describes that work and provides recent examples of forecasts and analysis.
The quarterly macroeconomic report for Romania provides the following key points:
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The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides
1. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
The Economic Outlook
for 2019 to 2029
in 21 Slides
February 2019
For more details, see Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2029 (January 2019), www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.
3. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
After growing by an
estimated 3.1 percent in
2018, real (inflation-
adjusted) gross domestic
product (GDP) is projected
to grow by 2.3 percent this
year and more slowly
thereafter.
4. The largest contributors to
the growth of real GDP in
2019 are consumer
spending, business
investment, and residential
investment.
5. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
In CBO’s baseline
projections, real GDP
grows at an average
annual rate of 1.9 percent
over the 2019–2023
period; there is a roughly
two-thirds chance that the
growth will be between
0.6 percent and
3.2 percent.
6. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
The growth of real GDP
exceeds the growth of
potential GDP this year,
but then it slows and
eventually stabilizes at the
growth rate of potential
(that is, maximum
sustainable) GDP near the
end of the projection
period.
7. This year's growth builds
on last year's strong
demand for goods and
services, pushing GDP
0.8 percent above potential
GDP this year. The
difference between actual
and potential GDP, known
as the output gap, is
projected to return to its
historical average of
roughly −0.5 percent in
later years.
8. In the coming decade, the
growth of real potential
GDP is projected to be
faster than it has been
since 2008 but slower than
it was in previous periods.
10. The heightened demand
for goods and services this
year increases the demand
for labor, pushing
employment further above
its maximum sustainable
amount, thereby increasing
the employment gap. After
this year, the gap shrinks
and eventually reaches its
long-term value.
11. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
The unemployment rate
falls further below CBO’s
estimate of the natural rate
this year, but then it rises
as growth in the demand
for labor slows. The
unemployment rate
reaches its historical
relationship with the
natural rate by the end of
the projection period.
12. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
CBO expects the demand
for labor to keep the labor
force participation rate
above the agency’s
estimate of the potential
rate for the next few
years.
13. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
In CBO's projections, the
growth in wages increases
over the next two years.
Growth is slower in later
years, reflecting slower
growth in the demand for
labor.
14. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
Labor’s share of income
rises after 2018 in CBO’s
projections because wages
and salaries are projected
to grow more quickly than
other kinds of income.
16. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. PCE = personal consumption expenditures.
Strong demand for goods,
services, and labor pushes
inflation slightly above the
Federal Reserve’s
objective of 2 percent over
the next several years in
CBO’s projections.
17. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
CBO expects the Federal
Reserve to continue to
increase the federal funds
rate through the end of
2019 in response to the
widening output gap and
mounting inflationary
pressures.
18. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
The increase in the federal
funds rate and a rising
term premium contribute to
higher interest rates on
Treasury securities.
20. CBO’s forecasts for the
next two years are broadly
similar to those in the
Blue Chip survey.
21. CBO’s projections
generally reflect slightly
slower GDP growth and
higher unemployment rates
and federal funds interest
rates than many of the
projections made by
Federal Reserve officials.
22. About This Document
These slides were prepared by Nabeel Alsalam, Kim Kowalewski,
Casey Labrack, and Jeffrey Schafer.
For more details about CBO’s economic projections as well as the
agency’s most recent budget projections, see The Budget and
Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 (January 2019),
www.cbo.gov/publication/54918. That report was the result of work
by many analysts at CBO.