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Opening the Black Box
In one decade: 200M -> 2B consumers
Global consumers
Across demographics
Business models have changed ->
More online
Less retail
F2P and micro-transactions
Games across multiple devices
Games are now big data:
Billions of monthly game sessions
Hundreds of millions of active users
Hundreds ofTBs captured daily
Exponential increase in data flow
Big
Game
Data
New /old
business
models
State
machines
Context
data
Persistence
Games are state machines
During play, a person generates an ongoing
loop of actions and system responses that
keep the game state changing
Compared to e.g. web shops, games
generate a lot more actions and responses
State machines
New business models require analytics to
drive revenue
Other business models must adopt analytics
More data and new methods
New
business
models
Retail
business
model
Games are more persistent/played for longer
Users have more devices
More and new ways to play
Scaling up of GUR data collection online
Persistence
Not just gameplay data: 360 degree view on users
Profile data from social networks
Off-game social networks
In-game social networks
Micro-transactions
Advertising
Payment systems
Game system behavior/responses
Geolocation
Psychographic marketing
…
Context
data
"You are no longer an individual,
you are a data cluster bound to a
vast global network"
-Watch Dogs
Data surge also at small scales
More data sources for GUR work
If you have a game, you can get deep data about
users -> data collection is (sort of) democratic
Middleware tools enable tracking
Mobile phones enable geolocation
Facebook data from users
Payment data
...
Methods - game analytics - remains vague and
require expertise
Accessible mostly to large companies
Methods infancy compared to other industries
Minimal available knowledge/-exchange
Models are often not explained to the end user
of analytics results
So …. what it is Game Analytics anyway?
Business intelligence (BI)
A set of theories, methodologies, processes,
architectures, and technologies that transform
raw data into meaningful and useful
information (Wikipedia – pretty accurate )
Aim of BI: to provide support for decision-
making at all levels of an organization
Making an organization data-driven
Analytics is the process of BI
Analytics is the process of discovering and
communicating patterns in data towards
solving problems in business
Supporting decision management
Driving action
Improving performance
- Or for purely frivolous and artistic reasons!
A specific domain of analytics: game
development and game research
The game as a product: user experience,
behavior, revenue …
The game as a project: the process of
developing the game
Data source for most product game analytics
Any amount of quantitative, unprocessed data
obtained over any distance, which pertain to
game development or game research.
Describes attributes about objects
Many sources: Installed clients, game servers,
mobile units, user testing/playtesting
Metric = Interpretable, quantitative measure of
one or more attributes of one or more objects –
operating in the context of games
Object: virtual item, player, user, process,
developer, forum post ....
Attribute: an aspect of the object
Context: tied to process, performance or users
of games.
Telemetry data from Quake III
Data on the location of the player avatar
Weapons used, hit/miss information, etc.
Convert raw attribute data about players into features
E.g. “number of hits” or “number of misses”
Domain = 0-1000 (with 1000 being max. no of hits)
Calculate across 1+ features to develop game metrics
E.g. hit/miss ratio
Weapon use times
Weapon accuracy
Player accuracy
A game metric does not need to be derived
from telemetry data.
“average completion time” for a game level
Stopwatch ->
Telemetry ->
- but with different measurement accuracies
both are metrics
User metrics
Metrics related to the users, viewing them as
either customers (revenue sources) or players
(behaviors)
ARPU, DAU, MAU -> customer focus
Avg. Playtime, Completion Rate -> player focus
Focus on revenue streams and user experience
User
Vastly most common data source!
Performance metrics
Measures of the performance of technical
infrastructure and software execution
FPS, load balancing …
Patch impacts
Bug counts, bug ratios …
Heavily used by Quality Assurance
Process metrics
Related to the process of developing games
Game development is a creative process -> can be
hard to monitor/quantify
Today numerous tools, e.g. task size estimation
tools, burn down charts
Focus is on measuring and qualifying production
Metrics that are unrelated to the games
context = business metrics
the revenue of a game development company
last year
the number of employee complaints last month
Usually project or company focused
Useful to integrate with game metrics
The Knowledge Discovery Process in GA
Attribute
definition
Data
acquisition
Data pre-
processing
Metrics
development
Analysis and
evaluation
Visualization
Reporting
Knowledge
deployment
GA Knowledge
Discovery Cycle
Strategic GA:The global view on how a game
should evolve based on analysis of user behavior
and the business model.
Changing a monetization model
Tactical GA: informs game design at the short-term,
A/B test of a new game feature.
Operational GA: Analysis and evaluation of the
immediate, current situation in the game.
Removing a bug, adapting game to user behavior
in real-time.
Common methods in game analytics:
Description
Statistics
Data Mining
Machine Learning/AI
Programming
Operations Research
Visualization
Operationalizing behavioral telemetry from games
How many players do we have?
What is the percentage of jumps cleared?
What is the ratio of new to leaving players?
(churn)
How many rocket launchers were fired on
average per multiplayer game?
KISS …
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37
Sumcreditsearnedperlevel
Financial Index
Archer
Berserker
Lancer
Mystic
Priest
Slayer
Sorcerer
Warrior
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
%DIFF
Min/Max Difference - Financial Index
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Archer
Berserker
Lancer
Mystic
Priest
Slayer
Sorcerer
Warrior
What activities to players engage in for how
long? Does this match design intent?
(DeRosa,Gamasutra)
What behaviors, entities or objects go together?
Do players open door 2 and take the east route?
Or the west route?
Do players buy the Red Pet with the Blue Pet – or
the Orange Pet?
Do players with the Sword of Mayhem +5 do
better against Dr. EvilBoss than those with the
Olive Branch of Peace -5?
Association (affinity): when performing an
association analysis, the goal is to find
features (attributes) that “go together”
Defines association rules in the data: If X,
thenY
“if players buy StripedTrousers of Strength +3,
they will also buy Girdle of Charisma +2.”
Girdle of Charisma +2
StripedTrousers of
Strength +5
Association rules have measures of support and
confidence
Support: the frequency of features occurring
Confidence: the probability that when X appears,
so does Y
What is the rate of progression through the map?
Are there areas/points where progression is halted?
(below left from Halo 3, © Bungie)
How likely is this player to convert to a paying
user?
What is the LifeTimeValue of this player?
How likely is this player to join a guild?
How likely is this player to reach the endgame?
Based on known values we want to
predict possible future values
Model developed based on training data
Widely applied!
Which decision chains leads a user to become a
paying users?
What makes a player quit?
Decision tree algorithms attempt to find
relationships between input values and target
values
Allow us to follow the effect of player
decisions, and plan for how to promote specific
decisions
At what level will a player stop as a feature of
playtime and rewards in Tomb Raider:
Underworld?
Level-2 Rewards
Rewards > 10
Level-3 playtime
-> playtime > 43 minutes : 4
-> playtime < 43 minutes : 7
Rewards < 10 : 2
Where do we loose players?
Which levels make people take long breaks?
Which upgrade paths do people choose?
An analysis of flow through a series of actions
Tracking loss of players during signup
Evaluating the steps leading up to a purchase
Drop-offs in player retention
(Ubisoft, Square Enix)
Deathmap (“heatmap”)
Killmap
Balance map
Resource use map
Performance map
Player density map
Purchase map
Quitmap
…
Heatmaps
Games are experienced spatio-temporally
All games require movement
All games take time to play
Why is analytics then mainly temporal?
Spatio-temporal analytics
Does not reduce the dimensions of game metrics
data
Deals with the actual dimensions of play.
(Image: Ubisoft)
Decades of knowledge in spatial analytics
outside of games – ripe for harvesting
Trajectory analysis (how do users play the game?
Move in 3D?)
Spatial outlier detection (finding exploitation
spots, bugs)
Spatial clustering (are players distributed across
maps? Or is some content not used?)
Spatial co-location patterns/trends (analysis of
army composition in RTS)
How do people play the game?
Which ways of playing are the most popular?
How can we detect outliers? (extreme groups)
How do we find the factors most important to
characterize user behaviors?
Behavioral telemetry can be high-
dimensional
100’s of player actions
Clustering is used for reducing
dimensionality and finding commonalities
Goal: group/segment objects so that intra-
cluster similarity is high and intercluster
similarity is low.
SIVM: finding extreme profiles
Assassins
Veterans
Target dummies
Assault-Recon
Medic-Engineer
Driver
Assault wannabee
Each different playstyles, and different things
that keep them in the game
”Driver”: drives, flies, sails – all the time and
favors maps with vehicles
”Assassin”: kills – afar or close – no vehicles!
”Target dummies”: unskilled newbies – high
dropout unless they quickly transfer to another
cluster
Use clustering to evaluate if there is sufficient
variety in gameplay
Use behavioral clustering to find profiles,
then cater to them – in real-time!
Monitor players´ profiles to track behavior
changes: target dummy -> veteran
Useful for evaluating learning curves fx.
Game Analytics Game User Research
GUR is about the user and how they function
when dealing with the software (Ben Lewis-
Evans).
“Small” scale, in-depth
GA is the process of discovering and
communicating patterns in data towards solving
problems in business
”Large scale”, more shallow
Both seek to inform decision making
GA GURUsers
Qualitativemethods(?)
Process
Business
Performance
Experience
(playtesting)
Usability
(user
testing)
Behavior
(analytics)
Larger scale
Smaller scale
Handout: an (mostly) online reference list
Books + tools in the list have info on how to perform
the 10 analyses mentioned (!)
Recommended: RapidMiner, WEKA
”Getting Started with Game Analytics”
Series introducing GA to the non-expert
Blog.gameanalytics.com
Contact: anders@gameanalytics.com
Game Analytics: Opening the Black Box

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Game Analytics: Opening the Black Box

  • 2. In one decade: 200M -> 2B consumers Global consumers Across demographics Business models have changed -> More online Less retail F2P and micro-transactions Games across multiple devices
  • 3. Games are now big data: Billions of monthly game sessions Hundreds of millions of active users Hundreds ofTBs captured daily Exponential increase in data flow
  • 5. Games are state machines During play, a person generates an ongoing loop of actions and system responses that keep the game state changing Compared to e.g. web shops, games generate a lot more actions and responses State machines
  • 6. New business models require analytics to drive revenue Other business models must adopt analytics More data and new methods New business models Retail business model
  • 7. Games are more persistent/played for longer Users have more devices More and new ways to play Scaling up of GUR data collection online Persistence
  • 8. Not just gameplay data: 360 degree view on users Profile data from social networks Off-game social networks In-game social networks Micro-transactions Advertising Payment systems Game system behavior/responses Geolocation Psychographic marketing … Context data
  • 9. "You are no longer an individual, you are a data cluster bound to a vast global network" -Watch Dogs
  • 10. Data surge also at small scales More data sources for GUR work If you have a game, you can get deep data about users -> data collection is (sort of) democratic Middleware tools enable tracking Mobile phones enable geolocation Facebook data from users Payment data ...
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Methods - game analytics - remains vague and require expertise Accessible mostly to large companies Methods infancy compared to other industries Minimal available knowledge/-exchange Models are often not explained to the end user of analytics results
  • 14.
  • 15. So …. what it is Game Analytics anyway?
  • 16. Business intelligence (BI) A set of theories, methodologies, processes, architectures, and technologies that transform raw data into meaningful and useful information (Wikipedia – pretty accurate ) Aim of BI: to provide support for decision- making at all levels of an organization Making an organization data-driven
  • 17.
  • 18. Analytics is the process of BI Analytics is the process of discovering and communicating patterns in data towards solving problems in business Supporting decision management Driving action Improving performance - Or for purely frivolous and artistic reasons!
  • 19. A specific domain of analytics: game development and game research The game as a product: user experience, behavior, revenue … The game as a project: the process of developing the game
  • 20. Data source for most product game analytics Any amount of quantitative, unprocessed data obtained over any distance, which pertain to game development or game research. Describes attributes about objects Many sources: Installed clients, game servers, mobile units, user testing/playtesting
  • 21. Metric = Interpretable, quantitative measure of one or more attributes of one or more objects – operating in the context of games Object: virtual item, player, user, process, developer, forum post .... Attribute: an aspect of the object Context: tied to process, performance or users of games.
  • 22. Telemetry data from Quake III Data on the location of the player avatar Weapons used, hit/miss information, etc. Convert raw attribute data about players into features E.g. “number of hits” or “number of misses” Domain = 0-1000 (with 1000 being max. no of hits) Calculate across 1+ features to develop game metrics E.g. hit/miss ratio Weapon use times Weapon accuracy Player accuracy
  • 23. A game metric does not need to be derived from telemetry data. “average completion time” for a game level Stopwatch -> Telemetry -> - but with different measurement accuracies both are metrics
  • 24. User metrics Metrics related to the users, viewing them as either customers (revenue sources) or players (behaviors) ARPU, DAU, MAU -> customer focus Avg. Playtime, Completion Rate -> player focus Focus on revenue streams and user experience
  • 25. User Vastly most common data source!
  • 26. Performance metrics Measures of the performance of technical infrastructure and software execution FPS, load balancing … Patch impacts Bug counts, bug ratios … Heavily used by Quality Assurance
  • 27. Process metrics Related to the process of developing games Game development is a creative process -> can be hard to monitor/quantify Today numerous tools, e.g. task size estimation tools, burn down charts Focus is on measuring and qualifying production
  • 28. Metrics that are unrelated to the games context = business metrics the revenue of a game development company last year the number of employee complaints last month Usually project or company focused Useful to integrate with game metrics
  • 29. The Knowledge Discovery Process in GA
  • 31. Strategic GA:The global view on how a game should evolve based on analysis of user behavior and the business model. Changing a monetization model Tactical GA: informs game design at the short-term, A/B test of a new game feature. Operational GA: Analysis and evaluation of the immediate, current situation in the game. Removing a bug, adapting game to user behavior in real-time.
  • 32. Common methods in game analytics: Description Statistics Data Mining Machine Learning/AI Programming Operations Research Visualization
  • 33.
  • 35. How many players do we have? What is the percentage of jumps cleared? What is the ratio of new to leaving players? (churn) How many rocket launchers were fired on average per multiplayer game?
  • 36. KISS … 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Sumcreditsearnedperlevel Financial Index Archer Berserker Lancer Mystic Priest Slayer Sorcerer Warrior
  • 37. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 %DIFF Min/Max Difference - Financial Index
  • 38. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Archer Berserker Lancer Mystic Priest Slayer Sorcerer Warrior
  • 39. What activities to players engage in for how long? Does this match design intent? (DeRosa,Gamasutra)
  • 40. What behaviors, entities or objects go together? Do players open door 2 and take the east route? Or the west route? Do players buy the Red Pet with the Blue Pet – or the Orange Pet? Do players with the Sword of Mayhem +5 do better against Dr. EvilBoss than those with the Olive Branch of Peace -5?
  • 41. Association (affinity): when performing an association analysis, the goal is to find features (attributes) that “go together” Defines association rules in the data: If X, thenY “if players buy StripedTrousers of Strength +3, they will also buy Girdle of Charisma +2.”
  • 42. Girdle of Charisma +2 StripedTrousers of Strength +5 Association rules have measures of support and confidence Support: the frequency of features occurring Confidence: the probability that when X appears, so does Y
  • 43. What is the rate of progression through the map? Are there areas/points where progression is halted? (below left from Halo 3, © Bungie)
  • 44. How likely is this player to convert to a paying user? What is the LifeTimeValue of this player? How likely is this player to join a guild? How likely is this player to reach the endgame?
  • 45. Based on known values we want to predict possible future values Model developed based on training data Widely applied!
  • 46.
  • 47. Which decision chains leads a user to become a paying users? What makes a player quit? Decision tree algorithms attempt to find relationships between input values and target values Allow us to follow the effect of player decisions, and plan for how to promote specific decisions
  • 48. At what level will a player stop as a feature of playtime and rewards in Tomb Raider: Underworld? Level-2 Rewards Rewards > 10 Level-3 playtime -> playtime > 43 minutes : 4 -> playtime < 43 minutes : 7 Rewards < 10 : 2
  • 49. Where do we loose players? Which levels make people take long breaks? Which upgrade paths do people choose?
  • 50. An analysis of flow through a series of actions Tracking loss of players during signup Evaluating the steps leading up to a purchase Drop-offs in player retention
  • 52. Deathmap (“heatmap”) Killmap Balance map Resource use map Performance map Player density map Purchase map Quitmap … Heatmaps
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56. Games are experienced spatio-temporally All games require movement All games take time to play Why is analytics then mainly temporal?
  • 57. Spatio-temporal analytics Does not reduce the dimensions of game metrics data Deals with the actual dimensions of play. (Image: Ubisoft)
  • 58. Decades of knowledge in spatial analytics outside of games – ripe for harvesting Trajectory analysis (how do users play the game? Move in 3D?) Spatial outlier detection (finding exploitation spots, bugs) Spatial clustering (are players distributed across maps? Or is some content not used?) Spatial co-location patterns/trends (analysis of army composition in RTS)
  • 59.
  • 60. How do people play the game? Which ways of playing are the most popular? How can we detect outliers? (extreme groups) How do we find the factors most important to characterize user behaviors?
  • 61. Behavioral telemetry can be high- dimensional 100’s of player actions Clustering is used for reducing dimensionality and finding commonalities Goal: group/segment objects so that intra- cluster similarity is high and intercluster similarity is low.
  • 62. SIVM: finding extreme profiles Assassins Veterans Target dummies Assault-Recon Medic-Engineer Driver Assault wannabee
  • 63. Each different playstyles, and different things that keep them in the game ”Driver”: drives, flies, sails – all the time and favors maps with vehicles ”Assassin”: kills – afar or close – no vehicles! ”Target dummies”: unskilled newbies – high dropout unless they quickly transfer to another cluster
  • 64. Use clustering to evaluate if there is sufficient variety in gameplay Use behavioral clustering to find profiles, then cater to them – in real-time! Monitor players´ profiles to track behavior changes: target dummy -> veteran Useful for evaluating learning curves fx.
  • 65.
  • 66. Game Analytics Game User Research
  • 67. GUR is about the user and how they function when dealing with the software (Ben Lewis- Evans). “Small” scale, in-depth GA is the process of discovering and communicating patterns in data towards solving problems in business ”Large scale”, more shallow Both seek to inform decision making
  • 70.
  • 71. Handout: an (mostly) online reference list Books + tools in the list have info on how to perform the 10 analyses mentioned (!) Recommended: RapidMiner, WEKA ”Getting Started with Game Analytics” Series introducing GA to the non-expert Blog.gameanalytics.com Contact: anders@gameanalytics.com