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South Asia Regional Outlook June 2013

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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook ...

http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

South Asia’s regional GDP growth slipped to 4.8 percent in 2012, following a robust recovery in the years after the 2008 global financial crisis. A weakening global economy, coupled with domestic difficulties (including policy uncertainties, structural capacity constraints, and a poor harvest) contributed to weaker regional growth in 2012.

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South Asia Regional Outlook  June 2013 South Asia Regional Outlook June 2013 Presentation Transcript

  • 1Sanket MohapatraWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsSouth AsiaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  • A sharp slowdown in post-financial crisis GDPgrowth in South Asia, led by India0123456789102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013South AsiaGDP growth, %
  • A sharp slowdown in post-financial crisis GDPgrowth in South Asia, led by India0123456789102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013South AsiaGDP growth, %
  • A sharp slowdown in post-financial crisis GDPgrowth in South Asia, led by India0123456789102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013South AsiaGDP growth, %
  • A sharp slowdown in post-financial crisis GDPgrowth in South Asia, led by India0123456789102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013South AsiaBangladeshIndiaGDP growth, %
  • A sharp slowdown in post-financial crisis GDPgrowth in South Asia, led by India0123456789102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013South Asia IndiaPakistan NepalGDP growth, %
  • A sharp slowdown in post-financial crisis GDPgrowth in South Asia, led by India0123456789102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013South Asia IndiaPakistan NepalSri LankaGDP growth, %
  • A sharp slowdown in post-financial crisis GDPgrowth in South Asia, led by India0123456789102003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013South Asia BangladeshIndia PakistanNepal Sri LankaGDP growth, %
  • Trade deficits widened in India,Pakistan and Sri Lanka-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012IndiaPakistanBangladeshSri LankaTrade balance/GDP, %
  • Trade deficits widened in India,Pakistan and Sri Lanka-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012IndiaPakistanBangladeshSri LankaTrade balance/GDP, %-30-20-100102030India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka NepalRemittancesCurrent account balancePercent of GDPMigrant remittances supportedcurrent account positions inNepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan
  • Trade deficits widened in India,Pakistan and Sri Lanka-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012IndiaPakistanBangladeshSri LankaTrade balance/GDP, %-30-20-100102030India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka NepalTrade balanceRemittancesCurrent account balancePercent of GDPMigrant remittances supportedcurrent account positions inNepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan
  • Gross capital flows rebounded in the second halfof 2012 and Q1 2013, but moderated in Q20.01.02.03.04.05.0Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13New equity issuanceBond issuanceBank LoansGross international capital flows to South Asia, billions USD
  • Gross capital flows rebounded in the second halfof 2012 and Q1 2013, but moderated in Q20.01.02.03.04.05.0Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13New equity issuanceBond issuanceBank LoansGross international capital flows to South Asia, billions USD
  • Gross capital flows rebounded in the second halfof 2012 and Q1 2013, but moderated in Q20.01.02.03.04.05.0Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13New equity issuanceBond issuanceBank LoansGross international capital flows to South Asia, billions USD
  • Outlook: An acceleration in GDP growth in2013-152011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fFiscal year basisBangladesh 6.7 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.3India 6.2 5.0Nepal 3.4 4.9Pakistan 3.0 3.7Calendar year basisAfghanistan 7.0 11.8Sri Lanka 8.2 6.4e = estimate; f = forecastSource: World Bank
  • Outlook: An acceleration in GDP growth in2013-152011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fFiscal year basisBangladesh 6.7 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.3India 6.2 5.0 5.7 6.5 6.7Nepal 3.4 4.9Pakistan 3.0 3.7Calendar year basisAfghanistan 7.0 11.8Sri Lanka 8.2 6.4e = estimate; f = forecastSource: World Bank
  • Outlook: An acceleration in GDP growth in2013-152011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fFiscal year basisBangladesh 6.7 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.3India 6.2 5.0 5.7 6.5 6.7Nepal 3.4 4.9 3.7 3.8 4.1Pakistan 3.0 3.7Calendar year basisAfghanistan 7.0 11.8Sri Lanka 8.2 6.4e = estimate; f = forecastSource: World Bank
  • Outlook: An acceleration in GDP growth in2013-152011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fFiscal year basisBangladesh 6.7 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.3India 6.2 5.0 5.7 6.5 6.7Nepal 3.4 4.9 3.7 3.8 4.1Pakistan 3.0 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.7Calendar year basisAfghanistan 7.0 11.8Sri Lanka 8.2 6.4e = estimate; f = forecastSource: World Bank
  • Outlook: An acceleration in GDP growth in2013-152011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fFiscal year basisBangladesh 6.7 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.3India 6.2 5.0 5.7 6.5 6.7Nepal 3.4 4.9 3.7 3.8 4.1Pakistan 3.0 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.7Calendar year basisAfghanistan 7.0 11.8 3.1 4.9 6.3Sri Lanka 8.2 6.4e = estimate; f = forecastSource: World Bank
  • Outlook: An acceleration in GDP growth in2013-152011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fFiscal year basisBangladesh 6.7 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.3India 6.2 5.0 5.7 6.5 6.7Nepal 3.4 4.9 3.7 3.8 4.1Pakistan 3.0 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.7Calendar year basisAfghanistan 7.0 11.8 3.1 4.9 6.3Sri Lanka 8.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.5e = estimate; f = forecastSource: World Bank
  • Risks to the Outlook• Success with which planned and announced reformpolicies are actually implemented over 2013-15. Weakbusiness sentiment may adversely affect revival ofinvestment and growth.• India’s large current account deficit and vulnerability to aslowing or reversal of foreign capital inflows• Weaker than expected monsoon rains• Domestic challenges21
  • Risks to the Outlook• Success with which planned and announced reformpolicies are actually implemented over 2013-15. Weakbusiness sentiment may adversely affect revival ofinvestment and growth.• India’s large current account deficit and vulnerability to aslowing or reversal of foreign capital inflows• Weaker than expected monsoon rains• Domestic challenges– Focus on alleviating domestic supply-side structural constraints(particularly provision of energy inputs for firms) and continuerebuilding of fiscal buffers– Sustained strong growth will depend on productivity enhancements,such as improving the overall business climate, labor marketreforms, and investing in infrastructure, education and health. 22
  • 23Sanket MohapatraWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsSouth AsiaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook