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The State of the Economy 
CHAPTER- 1 : ECONOMIC SURVEY OF INDIA 2013 -14 
Prepared by- 
Swapnil Soni 
DoMS, IISc 
Course- 
Macroeconomics 
Instructor- 
Prof. M.H. Bala Subrahmanya 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
2 
Index 
 Price & Monetary management 
 Inflation 
 Major contributor to headline WPI 
 Outlook for inflation 
 Monetary development 
 International trade, BoP & Debt 
 International trade 
 Service trade 
 Balance of Payment 
 External Debt 
 Priorities for reviving growth 
 Sectoral Developments 
 References 
 Economic survey of India- Introduction 
 Health of Economy with Economic 
Indicators 
 Sectoral growth trend 
 Trend in employment 
 Input flows in economy 
 Aggregate Demand 
 Consumption 
 Investment 
 Net export 
 Public Finance 
 Domestic Savings 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
What? 
• A flagship annual document of the Ministry of Finance, Government of India 
• Ministry's view on the annual economic development of the country (13 Chapters) 
Purpose? 
• Summarizing the performance on major development programs, and highlights the policy 
initiatives of the government and the prospects of the economy in the short to medium 
term 
Presented to? 
• Bicameral houses of Parliament- Loksabha & Rajyasabha 
3 
Economic survey of India 
Presented by? 
• Finance Ministry of India 
When? 
• During the Budget Session 
• Just before the Union Budget 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Health of Economy 
Assessing the health of Economy with Economic Indicators: 
1. GDP 
2. Production 
3. Price 
4. External Sector 
5. Money & Credit 
6. Fiscal Indicators 
7. Population 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Health of Economy (cont..) 
Economic Survey of India 2013-14 : Key Indicators 
Data categories 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
1 GDP and Related Indicators 
GDP (current market prices) Rs Crore 6477827 7784115 90097222R 101132811R 11355073 
Nominal GDP Growth Rate % 15.1 20.2 15.7 12.2 12.3 
GDP (factor cost 2004-05 prices) ` 4516071 4918533 52475302R 54821111R 5741791 
Real GDP Growth Rate % 8.6 8.9 6.7 4.5 4.7 
Savings Rate % of GDP 33.7 33.7 31.3 30.1 
Capital Formation Rate % of GDP 36.5 36.5 35.5 34.8 
Per Capita Net National Income ` 46249 54021 61855 67839 74380 
(factor cost at current prices) 
2 Production 
Food grains Million tonnes 218.1 244.5 259.3 257.1 264.4 
Food Grains Production (growth) % 13 12.1 6.1 -0.8 2.8 
Index of Industrial Production (growth) % 5.3 8.2 2.9 1.1 -0.1 
Electricity Generation (growth) % 6.1 5.5 8.2 4 6.1 
3 Prices 
Inflation (WPI) (average) % 3.8 9.6 8.9 7.4 6 
Inflation CPI (IW) (average) % 12.4 10.4 8.4 10.4 9.7 
4 External Sector 
Export (in US$ terms) % change -3.5 40.5 21.8 -1.8 4.1 
Import (in US$ terms) % change -5 28.2 32.3 0.3 -8.3 
Current Account Balance (CAB/GDP) % -2.8 -2.8 -4.2 -4.7 -1.7 
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9 9.2 -3.4 -0.8 4.2 
Average Exchange Rated Rs/US$ -4.0 -4.0 5.2 13.5 11.2 
5 Money and Credit 
Broad Money (M3) (annual) % change 16.9 16.1 13.2 13.6 13.3 
Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit % change 16.9 21.5 17 14.1 13.9 
6 Fiscal Indicators (Centre) 
Gross Fiscal Deficit % of GDP 6.5 4.8 5.7 4.9 4.5 
Revenue Deficit % of GDP 5.2 3.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 
Primary Deficit % of GDP 3.2 1.8 2.7 1.8 1.2 
7 Population Million n.a. 1210 n.a. n.a. n.a. 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 5 26 November 2014
Health of Economy (cont..) 
36.5 36.5 
33.7 33.7 
Real GDP: Average growth in the emerging markets and developing economies 
including China declined from 6.8 % to 4.9 % 
15.1 
20.2 
1. GDP and Related Indicators 
35.5 34.8 
31.3 
15.7 
30.1 
12.2 12.3 
8.6 8.9 
6.7 
4.5 4.7 
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
Percentage 
Nominal GDP Growth Rate % Real GDP Growth Rate % 
Savings Rate % of GDP Capital Formation Rate % of GDP 
• Nominal GDP growth rate peaked during 2010-11 and kept declining afterwards 
• Real GDP didn't surge any period and depicted sub-5% growth rate for last 2 years 
• Difference in Nominal and Real GDP growth rate is attributed to inflation 
• Although there is growth in GDP (yet slow), there is fall in saving rate and consequently capital formation rate 
(MPC & Angel's Law) 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 6 26 November 2014
Health of Economy (cont..) 
13 
12.1 
2. Production 
8.2 
6.1 
4 
1.1 
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
-0.8 
6.1 
2.8 
6.1 
5.3 
8.2 
2.9 
-0.1 
5.5 
Percentage 
Food Grains Production (growth) % Index of Industrial Production (growth) % 
Electricity Generation (growth) % 
• Steep decline in Agriculture production-negative growth in 2012-13 
• Industrial production also reported fall in growth rate; major concern- negative in 2013-14 
• Electricity followed cyclical trend and reported good growth in 2013-14 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 7 26 November 2014
Health of Economy (cont..) 
12.4 
3.8 
10.4 
9.6 
3. Prices 
8.9 
10.4 
7.4 
9.7 
6 
8.4 
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
Percentage 
Inflation (WPI) (average) % Inflation CPI (IW) (average) % 
• WPI always remained below CPI (IW) 
• Last year both inflation indices reported decline in value yet CPI (IW) remained still above 
‘Comfort level’ 
• Food inflation is observed to be major contributor in CPI (IW) 
• WPI inflation in food articles averaged 12.2% during this periods 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 8 26 November 2014
Health of Economy (cont..) 
9 9.2 
Foreign exchange reserves increased by 
nearly US$ 40 billion from US$ 275 billion in 
early September 2013 to US$ 314.9 billion on 
20 June 2014 
-0.8 
4. External sector 
--2.8 3.5 
-2.8 -4.2 -4.7 
40.5 
32.3 
21.8 
0.3 
-1.8 
4.2 
4.1 
2009--5 
10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
28.2 
-1.7 
-8.3 
-3.4 
Percentage 
Export (in US$ terms) % change Import (in US$ terms) % change 
Current Account Balance (CAB/GDP) % Foreign Exchange Reserves 
• Drastic growth of Export & Import in 2010-11 and decline in 2012-13; Export again revived in 
2013-14 
• Reduction in Import last year brought good news and also reduced CAD 
• Foreign Reserve increased dramatically in last year due to FII 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 9 26 November 2014
Health of Economy (cont..) 
16.9 
21.5 
16.1 
5. Money and Credit 
17 
14.1 13.9 
13.2 13.6 13.3 
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
Percentage 
Broad Money (M3) (annual) % change Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit % change 
• Broad Money depicts a constant increasing trend which can be reasoned out by the fact that real 
GDP also has increasing growth trend 
• M3 (Broad money)= M1 + time deposits of the public with banks 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 10 26 November 2014
Health of Economy (cont..) 
6.5 
4.8 
6. Fiscal Indicators 
5.7 
4.9 
4.5 
5.2 
3.2 
4.4 
3.6 
3.2 
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
Percentage 
Gross Fiscal Deficit % of GDP Revenue Deficit % of GDP 
• Both gross fiscal & Revenue deficit show declining trend since 2011 
• It could be due to the fact that govt reduced its expenditure comparatively these years and there is increase in 
Tax revenue 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 11 26 November 2014
Health of Economy (cont..) 
Highlights on Health 
• Economic growth has slowed due to domestic structural and external factors. Two 
successive years of sub-5 % growth is witnessed for the first time in 25 years. 
• Inflation has eased but is still above comfort levels. 
• Improvements are visible on the fiscal front and in the current account balance. 
• Sustenance of early signs of growth pick-up depends on amelioration of structural 
constraints. 
Structural constraints 
Delayed decisions on projects 
thwarting investments 
Ill-targeted subsidies 
http://onlyzerocarbon.org/subsidies.html 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 12 26 November 2014
Economic Indicators (cont..) 
Structural constraints (cont..) 
Low manufacturing base, especially of capital goods 
. 
Presence of a large informal sector and inadequate 
labour absorption in the formal sector 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 13 26 November 2014
Economic Indicators (cont..) 
Structural constraints (cont..) 
Sustaining high economic growth is difficult 
without robust agricultural growth. Low 
agricultural productivity is hampering this. 
Significant presence of intermediaries->High food 
inflation 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 14 26 November 2014
Sectoral growth trend 
• Trend in employment 
• Input flows in economy 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Mining & Quarrying 
Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply 
Construction Trade, hotels, transport, storage & communication 
Financing, insurance, real estate & business services Community, social & personal services 
GDP at factor cost 
• Growth in almost all sectors declined for last 5 years so did GDP growth 
• Last year 2013-14 advocates increased growth in Agriculture, Power, Construction & some service industry- 
• Finance & Insurance sector has sustainable growth trend 
• Concern: negative growth in Manufacturing & Mining 
16 
Sectoral growth trend 
Sector 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
(Growth %) 
14 
12 
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 5.8 0.1 0.8 8.6 5 1.4 4.7 
Mining 10 
& Quarrying 3.7 2.1 5.9 6.5 0.1 -2.2 -1.4 
Manufacturing 10.3 4.3 11.3 8.9 7.4 1.1 -0.7 
8 
Electricity, gas & water supply 8.3 4.6 6.2 5.3 8.4 2.3 5.9 
Construction 6 
10.8 5.3 6.7 5.7 10.8 1.1 1.6 
Trade, hotels, transport, storage & communication 10.9 7.5 10.4 12.2 4.3 5.1 3 
Financing, 4 
insurance, real estate & business services 12 12 9.7 10 11.3 10.9 12.9 
Community, social & personal services 6.9 12.5 11.7 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.6 
2 
GDP at factor cost 9.3 6.7 8.6 8.9 6.7 4.5 4.7 
0 
Growth % 
Rainfall (mm) 12 13 9 5 14 7 8 
-2 
-4 
Finance 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Sectoral growth trend 
Role of Natural factor : Monsoon 
• Favourable monsoons helped agricultural growth and power generation. 
• Slowdown in industry continued. 
12 
13 
9 
8.6 8.9 
8.6 
5.7 
5 
14 
7 
8 
10.8 
9.3 
5.8 
6.7 
5.3 
0.1 
6.7 
Correlation Coefficient Rainfall 
0.8 
10.8 
6.7 
5 
4.5 Agricultur 
e, Forestry 
& Fishing 
1.4 
4.7 
1.1 
Construction 
1.6 
GDP at 
factor cost 
Rainfall 1 
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing -0.28781 1 
Construction 0.652794 0.307227 1 
GDP at factor cost 0.091466 0.372258 0.71487687 1 
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
Growth % 
Rainfall Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Construction GDP at factor cost 
• India’s major agriculture production depends on monsoon yet that also couldn’t help much in 
recession during 2008-09 
• Growth in agriculture & construction is attributed to monsoon in last 2 years 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 17 26 November 2014
Major employer: Agriculture & Construction 
• Slowdown in employment growth has been a serious concern in recent years 
• Workforce increased from 398 million in 1999-2000 to 458 million in 2004-05 
• Increase of nearly 60 million is nearly equally divided between the agriculture and 
Silver Lining 
• Decline in the share of employment in agriculture has been observed in most 
• A decline in the labour force and workforce participation rates of women 
• Rapid increase in female participation in education, both in the rural and urban areas. 
18 
Trend in employment 
non-agriculture sectors 
countries in their development process 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Industry 
Agriculture 
Services 
• Agriculture: around half of inputs from agriculture itself; remaining contributed 
• Industrial sector, a pivotal for sustaining economic activity in the services sector 
• A sustained recovery in the industrial sector is at the heart of a sustained growth recovery 
19 
Input flows in economy 
equally by Industry & Services 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Aggregate Demand 
• Consumption 
• Investment 
• Net export 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
NE=X-M 
% of GDP 
• No major change in Consumption –’C’ 
• AD slightly increased owing to higher level of net export- (NE=X-M) 
21 
Aggregate Demand 
TFCE: Total final consumption expenditure 
GCF: Gross capital formation 
FCF: Fixed capital formation 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Consumption basket 
A move away from non-durable goods, especially food items! 
• The share of final consumption in GDP has been declining consistently since the 1950s 
• Mainly the decline in share of PFCE but income increased 
Income Saving Consumption 
22 
% of GDP 
Consumption 
TFCE: Total final consumption expenditure 
PFCE: Private final consumption expenditure 
GFCE: Govt final consumption expenditure 
Why? 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Sector-wise Investment as ratio of GDP 
What drives investment? 
Real or Nominal interest rate? 
Treatment to Crowding out is to attain Richordian equivalence 
• The year 2004-05 marked a break, with the rate of investment exceeding 30% for 
• Private corporate investment is the major contributor to total investment; 
decline of which deteriorated the overall investment ‘I’ & GDP as well 
23 
Investment 
Investment 
components 
• Fixed capital 
formation 
• Acquisition of 
valuables 
• Changes in stock and 
inventories 
the first time 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Net export 
Correlation between indices 
Import increase much faster than Export 
Real GDP Growth 
Rates (%) 
Private 
Consumption 
Public 
Consumption 
Analysis on basis of 15 years data 1999-2K to 2013-14 
Gross Fixed Capital 
Formation 
Exports 
(US$bn) 
Imports 
(US$bn) 
Trade deficit 
(US$bn) 
600 
Real GDP Growth Rates (%) 1.000 
Private Consumption 0.708 1.000 
Public Consumption 0.557 0.546 1.000 
Gross Fixed Capital 
Formation 
0.727 0.277 0.149 1.000 
500 
400 
300 
Exports (US$bn) -0.051 0.358 0.217 -0.297 1.000 
Imports (US$bn) -0.038 0.379 0.268 -0.294 0.996 1.000 
Trade deficit (US$bn) 0.017 -0.407 -0.342 0.285 -0.976 -0.991 1.000 
Inferences 
200 
100 
0 
US$BN 
• Real GDP growth, Private & Public Consumptions and Capital formation are highly 
correlated. 
-100 
-200 
• Export and Import are growing hand-in-hand. 
Trade deficit= Export- Import 
-300 
Exports (US$bn) Imports (US$bn) Trade deficit (US$bn) 
• Understood: Import increases -> Trade deficit decreases 
• Riddle: Export increases -> Trade deficit decreases?? 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 24 26 November 2014
Public Finance 
Study of the role of the government in the economy by means of: 
(1) Efficient allocation of resources 
(2) Distribution of income 
(3) Macroeconomic stabilization. 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003 
Purpose: 
• To institutionalise financial discipline 
• To reduce India's fiscal & revenue deficit 
• To improve macroeconomic management and the overall management of the 
public funds by moving towards a balanced budget 
Centre's Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 
Indicator 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
Centre's Fiscal 
Target: 
Defic6i.0t% -6 -5.7 -4.3 -3.9 -4 -3.3 -2.5 -6 -6.5 -4.8 -5.7 -4.9 -4.5 
2013-14 -> 4.8 % 
2016-17 -> 3.0 % 
2.5% 
• Fiscal deficit was successfully achieved 2.5% in 2007-08 against target of 3% 
• 2008-09 Global crisis plummeted the this number to 6.5% 
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
26 
Public Finance 
5.7% 
4.3% 
3.9% 4.0% 
3.3% 
6.0% 
6.5% 
4.8% 
5.7% 
4.9% 
4.5% 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Tax - GDP ratio 
• Higher fiscal deficits usually lead to 
• India’s government liabilities-GDP 
• Raising the tax-GDP ratio and 
27 
Public Finance 
 The fiscal deficit of 4.5 per cent of GDP in 2013-14 as compared to the budgeted target of 
4.8 per cent of GDP is indicative of continued focus on fiscal consolidation 
 Fiscal consolidation was achieved with lower-than budgeted expenditure in 2013-14 
 Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties and elevated global crude oil prices, fiscal 
targets were achieved 
Alternate solution to take on Fiscal deficit: 
May result counter productive! 
rising public debt. 
ratio declined from 61.6% in 2002-03 
to 49.4% in 2013-14 
furtherance of subsidy reforms are 
essential for fiscal consolidation 
Laffer Curve 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Domestic Savings 
Not ‘Saving’…! 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Domestic Savings Household Savings Private corporate Public sector 
Saving Savings 
A flow concept A stock concept 
A disposable personal income minus 
consumption 
A part of a particular asset 
It's the current output/income that is not 
consumed or used up during the relevant 
time 
Savings is often equated 
with investment for any economy 
Gross Domestic Savings Rate and its Components as Percentage of GDP at Current Market Prices 
29 
Domestic Savings 
Item 1990s 2000s 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 
Gross domestic savings 23 30.6 36.8 32 33.7 33.7 31.3 30.1 
Household sector 17.7 23.1 22.4 23.6 25.2 23.1 22.8 21.9 
Financial 9.6 10.8 11.6 10.1 12 9.9 7 7.1 
Physical 8 12.3 10.8 13.5 13.2 13.2 15.8 14.8 
Private corporate sector 3.6 6.3 9.4 7.4 8.4 8 7.3 7.1 
Public sector 1.6 1.2 5 1 0.2 2.6 1.2 1.2 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Gross Domestic Savings Rate and its Components as Percentage of GDP 
13.5 13.2 13.2 
1990S 2000S 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 
Gross domestic savings Household sector Financial 
Physical Private corporate sector Public sector 
• Gross domestic savings followed downward trend after 2007-08 that exhibited historic high 
• Household is major contributor; it also showed decline 
• In recent years, households tended to save more in physical than in financial assets 
30 
Domestic Savings 
23 
30.6 
36.8 
32 
33.7 33.7 
31.3 
30.1 
17.7 
23.1 22.4 
23.6 
25.2 
23.1 22.8 
21.9 
9.6 
12.3 
10.8 
11.6 
10.1 
12 
9.9 
15.8 
14.8 
8.4 8 7.3 7 7.1 
8 
10.8 
3.6 
6.3 
9.4 
7.4 
1.6 1.2 
5 
1 
0.2 
2.6 
1.2 1.2 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Price & Monetary management 
• Inflation 
• Major contributor to headline WPI 
• Outlook for inflation 
• Monetary Developments 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Inflation 
• Year 2009-10 depicted the highest level of CPI & lowest level of WPI 
• High CPI is majorly attributed to food articles 
• With increase in income level over a period there is decline in proportional consumption of 
• Non-food items moderated the CPI- sticky Core Inflation 
32 
Price & Monetary management 
Indicator 1999-2K 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062006-072007-082008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 
WPI 3.3 7.1 3.6 3.4 5.5 6.5 3.7 6.5 4.8 8 3.6 9.6 8.8 7.5 5.9 
CPI (IW) 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.2 6.8 6.2 9.1 12.3 10.5 8.4 10.2 9.5 
food articles 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Price & Monetary management 
Major contributors to headline WPI inflation, Outlook & Monetary Developments 
Villain No.-2 
(Subsidy & MSP) 
Villain No.-1 
Hero – RBI’s monetary policy 
• Contractionary in Inflation 
• Expansionary in recession 
High Income 
• In 2013-14 inflation was chiefly confined to food and fuel, which contributed 
nearly 2/3 of overall inflation 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 33 26 November 2014
International trade 
• International trade 
• Service trade 
• Balance of Payment 
• External Debt 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
International trade 
Peak- US $ 490 b during 2012-13 Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 35 
Increased Import 
26 November 2014
International trade 
Peak- US $ 306 b during 2011-12 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 36 
Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 
Decreased Export 
26 November 2014
International trade 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 37 
Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 
26 November 2014
International trade 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 38 
Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 
26 November 2014
International trade 
Import from China- US $38 b Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 39 
26 November 2014
International trade 
Export to USA- US $29 b 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 40 
Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 
26 November 2014
Indicators 2000-01 2013-14 
India’s share in world exports 0.7% 1.7 % 
India’s share in world import 0.8% 2.5% 
India’s total merchandise trade to GDP ratio 21.8% 44.1% 
360.8 
404.9 
426 
Forex & Debt 
Concern! 
Forex & Debt both grow hand in hand yet in 
2010-11 external debt surpassed Forex 
• Exports of petroleum products, engineering goods, chemicals and related 
317.9 
products accounted for more than half of total exports in 2013-14 
275.6 
283.5 
297.3 296.7 296.6 295.7 
303.6 
• Imports of gold declined from 1078 tonnes 254.6 
in 2011-260.9 
12 to 1037 tonnes in 2012- 
13 and further to 664 tonnes in 2013-14- on account of govt’s measures 
134 139.1 
131.2 137.2 
177.3 
172.4 
224.4 224.5 
Trade deficit Export Import 
98.3 101.3 98.8 104.9 112.7 
35.1 39.6 
51 
100.6 
What caused 1999-2K reduced 2000-01 2001-trade 022002-032003-deficit 042004-to 052005-US$ 137.5 062006-billion 072007-082008-from 092009-US$ 10 190.3 2010-11 billion 2011-12 2012-during 13 2013-2012-14 
13? 
• The sharp decline in imports Forex Assets and (exc. a moderate gold)(US$bn) growth in External exports 
Debt (US$bn) 
• Demand slowdown and restrictions on non-essential imports 
• ‘Swap window’ (US$ 34 bn) + lower CAD = increased Forex (US$ 314.9 bn) 
41 
International trade 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Priorities for Reviving Growth 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
• Rejuvenating growth in manufacturing, which has 
significant backward & forward linkages. Simplification 
of tax policy & administration 
• Keeping fiscal deficit in check without compromising on capital 
• Maintaining the CAD in the range of 2-2.5 % of GDP. This may turn out to 
be challenging due to oil prices in external market 
The Hindu, 18.11.14 
• Fresh look at policies towards procurement, marketing, transport, 
• To harness the demographic dividend, the non-agrarian sector must generate 
43 
Priorities for Reviving Growth 
 Revival of investment is crucial for raising the growth rate. This requires acceleration in 
project clearances 
expenditure 
storage, and processing 
employment 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Sectoral Developments 
• Agriculture and Food Management 
• Industry and infrastructure 
• Services Sector 
• Financial Intermediation 
• Human Development 
• Sustainable Development and Climate Change 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Industry and infrastructure 
• Key reason for poor performance - contraction in mining and deceleration in 
• Deceleration in investment particularly by the private corporate sector during 2012-13 
• Slowdown in industry was reflected in lower sales growth in the corporate sector 
• Maximum FDI attracted by- construction, telecom, computer software & hardware, 
drugs, automobile, power, metallurgy, hotels & tourism 
45 
Sectoral Developments 
Agriculture and Food Management 
 The year 2013-14 witnessed record food grains production 
 However, the share of public expenditure in total GCF 
of the agriculture and allied sector declined from 25 % in 
2006-07 to 14.7 % in 2012-13 
 Private investment as a proportion of agri-allied GDP 
increased from 12.6 % in 2007-08 to 18.1 % in 2012-13 
 60 % of the total food grains and oilseeds are grown in the 
Kharif season- largely dependent on Monsoon 
 Schemes 
 Task Force for Direct Transfer of fertilizer subsidy 
 Crop Diversification Scheme in Punjab & Haryana 
 Uniform taxes in the domestic market 
manufacturing 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Sectoral Developments 
Services Sector 
 Fastest growing sector of the economy 
 Second fastest growing in the world, with a CAGR of 
9%, behind China with a CAGR of 10.9 % during the period 
from 2001 to 2012 
 Contributed substantially to foreign investment flows, 
exports, and employment (27%) 
 Like industry, services also slowed during the last two 
years 
 Decelerated: Trade, hotels & restaurants and transport, 
storage, and communications 
 Accelerated: Financing, insurance, real estate, and 
business services 
Financial Intermediation 
 Financial reforms in 2013-14 
 Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) 
 Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC) 
 NPAs of banks increased from 2.36% in 2011 to 3.90% 
(total credit advanced) in 2014 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 46 26 November 2014
Sectoral Developments 
Human Development 
 Large and young population–great 
demographic advantage 
 The proportion of working-age 
population is likely to increase from 58% 
in 2001 to 64% by 2021 
At the heart of all of this lies a fair division of both 
 Human development index (HDI) = 0.554; 
global rights and responsibilities 
Global ranking slipped down to 136 from 134 
 The poverty ratio declined from 37.2% in 
2004-05 to 21.9% (269.3 mn) in 2011-12 
Sustainable Development and Climate Change 
 The business-as-usual approach to development has entailed 
 Unless timely action is taken, the potential 
for reaping the demographic dividend is 
unlikely to last indefinitely 
unsustainable consumption patterns, essentially in 
developed countries 
 India’s per capita carbon emissions were 1.7 MT in 
2010, well below the world average of 4.9 MT (misleading as 
population is high) 
 Adopted Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) ending in 
2015 
 New climate deals must ensure that developing countries 
are granted the required ‘carbon space’ & ‘development 
space’. 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 47 26 November 2014
Research Papers 
 Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence By 
 Evaluation of trade policy in India By Vijay L.K. 
Tools used 
 Microsoft Encarta (Encyclopedia for offline references) 
 Microsoft Excel (Data analysis) 
48 
References 
Websites 
 www. commerce.nic.in 
 www.dgft.gov.in 
 www.wto.org 
 www.wikipedia.org 
 www.indiabudget.nic.in 
 www.ifri.org 
 www.msme.gov.in 
Francisco Rodriguez 
Books 
 Introduction to Macroeconomics By Hyman 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
49 
So what? 
What can I do? 
 Agricultural, Educational & (Manufacturing) Industrial development 
are backbone of economy. 
 Let’s strengthen it by adding values to these sectors either as career in 
academia or as a professional. 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
Thank you! 
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014

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India's Economic Survey 2013-14

  • 1. The State of the Economy CHAPTER- 1 : ECONOMIC SURVEY OF INDIA 2013 -14 Prepared by- Swapnil Soni DoMS, IISc Course- Macroeconomics Instructor- Prof. M.H. Bala Subrahmanya The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 2. 2 Index  Price & Monetary management  Inflation  Major contributor to headline WPI  Outlook for inflation  Monetary development  International trade, BoP & Debt  International trade  Service trade  Balance of Payment  External Debt  Priorities for reviving growth  Sectoral Developments  References  Economic survey of India- Introduction  Health of Economy with Economic Indicators  Sectoral growth trend  Trend in employment  Input flows in economy  Aggregate Demand  Consumption  Investment  Net export  Public Finance  Domestic Savings The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 3. What? • A flagship annual document of the Ministry of Finance, Government of India • Ministry's view on the annual economic development of the country (13 Chapters) Purpose? • Summarizing the performance on major development programs, and highlights the policy initiatives of the government and the prospects of the economy in the short to medium term Presented to? • Bicameral houses of Parliament- Loksabha & Rajyasabha 3 Economic survey of India Presented by? • Finance Ministry of India When? • During the Budget Session • Just before the Union Budget The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 4. Health of Economy Assessing the health of Economy with Economic Indicators: 1. GDP 2. Production 3. Price 4. External Sector 5. Money & Credit 6. Fiscal Indicators 7. Population The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 5. Health of Economy (cont..) Economic Survey of India 2013-14 : Key Indicators Data categories 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 1 GDP and Related Indicators GDP (current market prices) Rs Crore 6477827 7784115 90097222R 101132811R 11355073 Nominal GDP Growth Rate % 15.1 20.2 15.7 12.2 12.3 GDP (factor cost 2004-05 prices) ` 4516071 4918533 52475302R 54821111R 5741791 Real GDP Growth Rate % 8.6 8.9 6.7 4.5 4.7 Savings Rate % of GDP 33.7 33.7 31.3 30.1 Capital Formation Rate % of GDP 36.5 36.5 35.5 34.8 Per Capita Net National Income ` 46249 54021 61855 67839 74380 (factor cost at current prices) 2 Production Food grains Million tonnes 218.1 244.5 259.3 257.1 264.4 Food Grains Production (growth) % 13 12.1 6.1 -0.8 2.8 Index of Industrial Production (growth) % 5.3 8.2 2.9 1.1 -0.1 Electricity Generation (growth) % 6.1 5.5 8.2 4 6.1 3 Prices Inflation (WPI) (average) % 3.8 9.6 8.9 7.4 6 Inflation CPI (IW) (average) % 12.4 10.4 8.4 10.4 9.7 4 External Sector Export (in US$ terms) % change -3.5 40.5 21.8 -1.8 4.1 Import (in US$ terms) % change -5 28.2 32.3 0.3 -8.3 Current Account Balance (CAB/GDP) % -2.8 -2.8 -4.2 -4.7 -1.7 Foreign Exchange Reserves 9 9.2 -3.4 -0.8 4.2 Average Exchange Rated Rs/US$ -4.0 -4.0 5.2 13.5 11.2 5 Money and Credit Broad Money (M3) (annual) % change 16.9 16.1 13.2 13.6 13.3 Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit % change 16.9 21.5 17 14.1 13.9 6 Fiscal Indicators (Centre) Gross Fiscal Deficit % of GDP 6.5 4.8 5.7 4.9 4.5 Revenue Deficit % of GDP 5.2 3.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 Primary Deficit % of GDP 3.2 1.8 2.7 1.8 1.2 7 Population Million n.a. 1210 n.a. n.a. n.a. The State of the Economy 2013-14 5 26 November 2014
  • 6. Health of Economy (cont..) 36.5 36.5 33.7 33.7 Real GDP: Average growth in the emerging markets and developing economies including China declined from 6.8 % to 4.9 % 15.1 20.2 1. GDP and Related Indicators 35.5 34.8 31.3 15.7 30.1 12.2 12.3 8.6 8.9 6.7 4.5 4.7 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Percentage Nominal GDP Growth Rate % Real GDP Growth Rate % Savings Rate % of GDP Capital Formation Rate % of GDP • Nominal GDP growth rate peaked during 2010-11 and kept declining afterwards • Real GDP didn't surge any period and depicted sub-5% growth rate for last 2 years • Difference in Nominal and Real GDP growth rate is attributed to inflation • Although there is growth in GDP (yet slow), there is fall in saving rate and consequently capital formation rate (MPC & Angel's Law) The State of the Economy 2013-14 6 26 November 2014
  • 7. Health of Economy (cont..) 13 12.1 2. Production 8.2 6.1 4 1.1 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 -0.8 6.1 2.8 6.1 5.3 8.2 2.9 -0.1 5.5 Percentage Food Grains Production (growth) % Index of Industrial Production (growth) % Electricity Generation (growth) % • Steep decline in Agriculture production-negative growth in 2012-13 • Industrial production also reported fall in growth rate; major concern- negative in 2013-14 • Electricity followed cyclical trend and reported good growth in 2013-14 The State of the Economy 2013-14 7 26 November 2014
  • 8. Health of Economy (cont..) 12.4 3.8 10.4 9.6 3. Prices 8.9 10.4 7.4 9.7 6 8.4 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Percentage Inflation (WPI) (average) % Inflation CPI (IW) (average) % • WPI always remained below CPI (IW) • Last year both inflation indices reported decline in value yet CPI (IW) remained still above ‘Comfort level’ • Food inflation is observed to be major contributor in CPI (IW) • WPI inflation in food articles averaged 12.2% during this periods The State of the Economy 2013-14 8 26 November 2014
  • 9. Health of Economy (cont..) 9 9.2 Foreign exchange reserves increased by nearly US$ 40 billion from US$ 275 billion in early September 2013 to US$ 314.9 billion on 20 June 2014 -0.8 4. External sector --2.8 3.5 -2.8 -4.2 -4.7 40.5 32.3 21.8 0.3 -1.8 4.2 4.1 2009--5 10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 28.2 -1.7 -8.3 -3.4 Percentage Export (in US$ terms) % change Import (in US$ terms) % change Current Account Balance (CAB/GDP) % Foreign Exchange Reserves • Drastic growth of Export & Import in 2010-11 and decline in 2012-13; Export again revived in 2013-14 • Reduction in Import last year brought good news and also reduced CAD • Foreign Reserve increased dramatically in last year due to FII The State of the Economy 2013-14 9 26 November 2014
  • 10. Health of Economy (cont..) 16.9 21.5 16.1 5. Money and Credit 17 14.1 13.9 13.2 13.6 13.3 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Percentage Broad Money (M3) (annual) % change Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit % change • Broad Money depicts a constant increasing trend which can be reasoned out by the fact that real GDP also has increasing growth trend • M3 (Broad money)= M1 + time deposits of the public with banks The State of the Economy 2013-14 10 26 November 2014
  • 11. Health of Economy (cont..) 6.5 4.8 6. Fiscal Indicators 5.7 4.9 4.5 5.2 3.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Percentage Gross Fiscal Deficit % of GDP Revenue Deficit % of GDP • Both gross fiscal & Revenue deficit show declining trend since 2011 • It could be due to the fact that govt reduced its expenditure comparatively these years and there is increase in Tax revenue The State of the Economy 2013-14 11 26 November 2014
  • 12. Health of Economy (cont..) Highlights on Health • Economic growth has slowed due to domestic structural and external factors. Two successive years of sub-5 % growth is witnessed for the first time in 25 years. • Inflation has eased but is still above comfort levels. • Improvements are visible on the fiscal front and in the current account balance. • Sustenance of early signs of growth pick-up depends on amelioration of structural constraints. Structural constraints Delayed decisions on projects thwarting investments Ill-targeted subsidies http://onlyzerocarbon.org/subsidies.html The State of the Economy 2013-14 12 26 November 2014
  • 13. Economic Indicators (cont..) Structural constraints (cont..) Low manufacturing base, especially of capital goods . Presence of a large informal sector and inadequate labour absorption in the formal sector The State of the Economy 2013-14 13 26 November 2014
  • 14. Economic Indicators (cont..) Structural constraints (cont..) Sustaining high economic growth is difficult without robust agricultural growth. Low agricultural productivity is hampering this. Significant presence of intermediaries->High food inflation The State of the Economy 2013-14 14 26 November 2014
  • 15. Sectoral growth trend • Trend in employment • Input flows in economy The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 16. 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply Construction Trade, hotels, transport, storage & communication Financing, insurance, real estate & business services Community, social & personal services GDP at factor cost • Growth in almost all sectors declined for last 5 years so did GDP growth • Last year 2013-14 advocates increased growth in Agriculture, Power, Construction & some service industry- • Finance & Insurance sector has sustainable growth trend • Concern: negative growth in Manufacturing & Mining 16 Sectoral growth trend Sector 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 (Growth %) 14 12 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 5.8 0.1 0.8 8.6 5 1.4 4.7 Mining 10 & Quarrying 3.7 2.1 5.9 6.5 0.1 -2.2 -1.4 Manufacturing 10.3 4.3 11.3 8.9 7.4 1.1 -0.7 8 Electricity, gas & water supply 8.3 4.6 6.2 5.3 8.4 2.3 5.9 Construction 6 10.8 5.3 6.7 5.7 10.8 1.1 1.6 Trade, hotels, transport, storage & communication 10.9 7.5 10.4 12.2 4.3 5.1 3 Financing, 4 insurance, real estate & business services 12 12 9.7 10 11.3 10.9 12.9 Community, social & personal services 6.9 12.5 11.7 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.6 2 GDP at factor cost 9.3 6.7 8.6 8.9 6.7 4.5 4.7 0 Growth % Rainfall (mm) 12 13 9 5 14 7 8 -2 -4 Finance The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 17. Sectoral growth trend Role of Natural factor : Monsoon • Favourable monsoons helped agricultural growth and power generation. • Slowdown in industry continued. 12 13 9 8.6 8.9 8.6 5.7 5 14 7 8 10.8 9.3 5.8 6.7 5.3 0.1 6.7 Correlation Coefficient Rainfall 0.8 10.8 6.7 5 4.5 Agricultur e, Forestry & Fishing 1.4 4.7 1.1 Construction 1.6 GDP at factor cost Rainfall 1 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing -0.28781 1 Construction 0.652794 0.307227 1 GDP at factor cost 0.091466 0.372258 0.71487687 1 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Growth % Rainfall Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Construction GDP at factor cost • India’s major agriculture production depends on monsoon yet that also couldn’t help much in recession during 2008-09 • Growth in agriculture & construction is attributed to monsoon in last 2 years The State of the Economy 2013-14 17 26 November 2014
  • 18. Major employer: Agriculture & Construction • Slowdown in employment growth has been a serious concern in recent years • Workforce increased from 398 million in 1999-2000 to 458 million in 2004-05 • Increase of nearly 60 million is nearly equally divided between the agriculture and Silver Lining • Decline in the share of employment in agriculture has been observed in most • A decline in the labour force and workforce participation rates of women • Rapid increase in female participation in education, both in the rural and urban areas. 18 Trend in employment non-agriculture sectors countries in their development process The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 19. Industry Agriculture Services • Agriculture: around half of inputs from agriculture itself; remaining contributed • Industrial sector, a pivotal for sustaining economic activity in the services sector • A sustained recovery in the industrial sector is at the heart of a sustained growth recovery 19 Input flows in economy equally by Industry & Services The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 20. Aggregate Demand • Consumption • Investment • Net export The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 21. NE=X-M % of GDP • No major change in Consumption –’C’ • AD slightly increased owing to higher level of net export- (NE=X-M) 21 Aggregate Demand TFCE: Total final consumption expenditure GCF: Gross capital formation FCF: Fixed capital formation The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 22. Consumption basket A move away from non-durable goods, especially food items! • The share of final consumption in GDP has been declining consistently since the 1950s • Mainly the decline in share of PFCE but income increased Income Saving Consumption 22 % of GDP Consumption TFCE: Total final consumption expenditure PFCE: Private final consumption expenditure GFCE: Govt final consumption expenditure Why? The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 23. Sector-wise Investment as ratio of GDP What drives investment? Real or Nominal interest rate? Treatment to Crowding out is to attain Richordian equivalence • The year 2004-05 marked a break, with the rate of investment exceeding 30% for • Private corporate investment is the major contributor to total investment; decline of which deteriorated the overall investment ‘I’ & GDP as well 23 Investment Investment components • Fixed capital formation • Acquisition of valuables • Changes in stock and inventories the first time The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 24. Net export Correlation between indices Import increase much faster than Export Real GDP Growth Rates (%) Private Consumption Public Consumption Analysis on basis of 15 years data 1999-2K to 2013-14 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports (US$bn) Imports (US$bn) Trade deficit (US$bn) 600 Real GDP Growth Rates (%) 1.000 Private Consumption 0.708 1.000 Public Consumption 0.557 0.546 1.000 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 0.727 0.277 0.149 1.000 500 400 300 Exports (US$bn) -0.051 0.358 0.217 -0.297 1.000 Imports (US$bn) -0.038 0.379 0.268 -0.294 0.996 1.000 Trade deficit (US$bn) 0.017 -0.407 -0.342 0.285 -0.976 -0.991 1.000 Inferences 200 100 0 US$BN • Real GDP growth, Private & Public Consumptions and Capital formation are highly correlated. -100 -200 • Export and Import are growing hand-in-hand. Trade deficit= Export- Import -300 Exports (US$bn) Imports (US$bn) Trade deficit (US$bn) • Understood: Import increases -> Trade deficit decreases • Riddle: Export increases -> Trade deficit decreases?? The State of the Economy 2013-14 24 26 November 2014
  • 25. Public Finance Study of the role of the government in the economy by means of: (1) Efficient allocation of resources (2) Distribution of income (3) Macroeconomic stabilization. The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 26. Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003 Purpose: • To institutionalise financial discipline • To reduce India's fiscal & revenue deficit • To improve macroeconomic management and the overall management of the public funds by moving towards a balanced budget Centre's Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) Indicator 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Centre's Fiscal Target: Defic6i.0t% -6 -5.7 -4.3 -3.9 -4 -3.3 -2.5 -6 -6.5 -4.8 -5.7 -4.9 -4.5 2013-14 -> 4.8 % 2016-17 -> 3.0 % 2.5% • Fiscal deficit was successfully achieved 2.5% in 2007-08 against target of 3% • 2008-09 Global crisis plummeted the this number to 6.5% 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 26 Public Finance 5.7% 4.3% 3.9% 4.0% 3.3% 6.0% 6.5% 4.8% 5.7% 4.9% 4.5% The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 27. Tax - GDP ratio • Higher fiscal deficits usually lead to • India’s government liabilities-GDP • Raising the tax-GDP ratio and 27 Public Finance  The fiscal deficit of 4.5 per cent of GDP in 2013-14 as compared to the budgeted target of 4.8 per cent of GDP is indicative of continued focus on fiscal consolidation  Fiscal consolidation was achieved with lower-than budgeted expenditure in 2013-14  Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties and elevated global crude oil prices, fiscal targets were achieved Alternate solution to take on Fiscal deficit: May result counter productive! rising public debt. ratio declined from 61.6% in 2002-03 to 49.4% in 2013-14 furtherance of subsidy reforms are essential for fiscal consolidation Laffer Curve The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 28. Domestic Savings Not ‘Saving’…! The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 29. Domestic Savings Household Savings Private corporate Public sector Saving Savings A flow concept A stock concept A disposable personal income minus consumption A part of a particular asset It's the current output/income that is not consumed or used up during the relevant time Savings is often equated with investment for any economy Gross Domestic Savings Rate and its Components as Percentage of GDP at Current Market Prices 29 Domestic Savings Item 1990s 2000s 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Gross domestic savings 23 30.6 36.8 32 33.7 33.7 31.3 30.1 Household sector 17.7 23.1 22.4 23.6 25.2 23.1 22.8 21.9 Financial 9.6 10.8 11.6 10.1 12 9.9 7 7.1 Physical 8 12.3 10.8 13.5 13.2 13.2 15.8 14.8 Private corporate sector 3.6 6.3 9.4 7.4 8.4 8 7.3 7.1 Public sector 1.6 1.2 5 1 0.2 2.6 1.2 1.2 The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 30. Gross Domestic Savings Rate and its Components as Percentage of GDP 13.5 13.2 13.2 1990S 2000S 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Gross domestic savings Household sector Financial Physical Private corporate sector Public sector • Gross domestic savings followed downward trend after 2007-08 that exhibited historic high • Household is major contributor; it also showed decline • In recent years, households tended to save more in physical than in financial assets 30 Domestic Savings 23 30.6 36.8 32 33.7 33.7 31.3 30.1 17.7 23.1 22.4 23.6 25.2 23.1 22.8 21.9 9.6 12.3 10.8 11.6 10.1 12 9.9 15.8 14.8 8.4 8 7.3 7 7.1 8 10.8 3.6 6.3 9.4 7.4 1.6 1.2 5 1 0.2 2.6 1.2 1.2 The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 31. Price & Monetary management • Inflation • Major contributor to headline WPI • Outlook for inflation • Monetary Developments The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 32. Inflation • Year 2009-10 depicted the highest level of CPI & lowest level of WPI • High CPI is majorly attributed to food articles • With increase in income level over a period there is decline in proportional consumption of • Non-food items moderated the CPI- sticky Core Inflation 32 Price & Monetary management Indicator 1999-2K 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062006-072007-082008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 WPI 3.3 7.1 3.6 3.4 5.5 6.5 3.7 6.5 4.8 8 3.6 9.6 8.8 7.5 5.9 CPI (IW) 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.2 6.8 6.2 9.1 12.3 10.5 8.4 10.2 9.5 food articles The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 33. Price & Monetary management Major contributors to headline WPI inflation, Outlook & Monetary Developments Villain No.-2 (Subsidy & MSP) Villain No.-1 Hero – RBI’s monetary policy • Contractionary in Inflation • Expansionary in recession High Income • In 2013-14 inflation was chiefly confined to food and fuel, which contributed nearly 2/3 of overall inflation The State of the Economy 2013-14 33 26 November 2014
  • 34. International trade • International trade • Service trade • Balance of Payment • External Debt The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 35. International trade Peak- US $ 490 b during 2012-13 Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ The State of the Economy 2013-14 35 Increased Import 26 November 2014
  • 36. International trade Peak- US $ 306 b during 2011-12 The State of the Economy 2013-14 36 Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ Decreased Export 26 November 2014
  • 37. International trade The State of the Economy 2013-14 37 Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 26 November 2014
  • 38. International trade The State of the Economy 2013-14 38 Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 26 November 2014
  • 39. International trade Import from China- US $38 b Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ The State of the Economy 2013-14 39 26 November 2014
  • 40. International trade Export to USA- US $29 b The State of the Economy 2013-14 40 Source: http://dgft.gov.in/ 26 November 2014
  • 41. Indicators 2000-01 2013-14 India’s share in world exports 0.7% 1.7 % India’s share in world import 0.8% 2.5% India’s total merchandise trade to GDP ratio 21.8% 44.1% 360.8 404.9 426 Forex & Debt Concern! Forex & Debt both grow hand in hand yet in 2010-11 external debt surpassed Forex • Exports of petroleum products, engineering goods, chemicals and related 317.9 products accounted for more than half of total exports in 2013-14 275.6 283.5 297.3 296.7 296.6 295.7 303.6 • Imports of gold declined from 1078 tonnes 254.6 in 2011-260.9 12 to 1037 tonnes in 2012- 13 and further to 664 tonnes in 2013-14- on account of govt’s measures 134 139.1 131.2 137.2 177.3 172.4 224.4 224.5 Trade deficit Export Import 98.3 101.3 98.8 104.9 112.7 35.1 39.6 51 100.6 What caused 1999-2K reduced 2000-01 2001-trade 022002-032003-deficit 042004-to 052005-US$ 137.5 062006-billion 072007-082008-from 092009-US$ 10 190.3 2010-11 billion 2011-12 2012-during 13 2013-2012-14 13? • The sharp decline in imports Forex Assets and (exc. a moderate gold)(US$bn) growth in External exports Debt (US$bn) • Demand slowdown and restrictions on non-essential imports • ‘Swap window’ (US$ 34 bn) + lower CAD = increased Forex (US$ 314.9 bn) 41 International trade The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 42. Priorities for Reviving Growth The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 43. • Rejuvenating growth in manufacturing, which has significant backward & forward linkages. Simplification of tax policy & administration • Keeping fiscal deficit in check without compromising on capital • Maintaining the CAD in the range of 2-2.5 % of GDP. This may turn out to be challenging due to oil prices in external market The Hindu, 18.11.14 • Fresh look at policies towards procurement, marketing, transport, • To harness the demographic dividend, the non-agrarian sector must generate 43 Priorities for Reviving Growth  Revival of investment is crucial for raising the growth rate. This requires acceleration in project clearances expenditure storage, and processing employment The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 44. Sectoral Developments • Agriculture and Food Management • Industry and infrastructure • Services Sector • Financial Intermediation • Human Development • Sustainable Development and Climate Change The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 45. Industry and infrastructure • Key reason for poor performance - contraction in mining and deceleration in • Deceleration in investment particularly by the private corporate sector during 2012-13 • Slowdown in industry was reflected in lower sales growth in the corporate sector • Maximum FDI attracted by- construction, telecom, computer software & hardware, drugs, automobile, power, metallurgy, hotels & tourism 45 Sectoral Developments Agriculture and Food Management  The year 2013-14 witnessed record food grains production  However, the share of public expenditure in total GCF of the agriculture and allied sector declined from 25 % in 2006-07 to 14.7 % in 2012-13  Private investment as a proportion of agri-allied GDP increased from 12.6 % in 2007-08 to 18.1 % in 2012-13  60 % of the total food grains and oilseeds are grown in the Kharif season- largely dependent on Monsoon  Schemes  Task Force for Direct Transfer of fertilizer subsidy  Crop Diversification Scheme in Punjab & Haryana  Uniform taxes in the domestic market manufacturing The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 46. Sectoral Developments Services Sector  Fastest growing sector of the economy  Second fastest growing in the world, with a CAGR of 9%, behind China with a CAGR of 10.9 % during the period from 2001 to 2012  Contributed substantially to foreign investment flows, exports, and employment (27%)  Like industry, services also slowed during the last two years  Decelerated: Trade, hotels & restaurants and transport, storage, and communications  Accelerated: Financing, insurance, real estate, and business services Financial Intermediation  Financial reforms in 2013-14  Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA)  Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC)  NPAs of banks increased from 2.36% in 2011 to 3.90% (total credit advanced) in 2014 The State of the Economy 2013-14 46 26 November 2014
  • 47. Sectoral Developments Human Development  Large and young population–great demographic advantage  The proportion of working-age population is likely to increase from 58% in 2001 to 64% by 2021 At the heart of all of this lies a fair division of both  Human development index (HDI) = 0.554; global rights and responsibilities Global ranking slipped down to 136 from 134  The poverty ratio declined from 37.2% in 2004-05 to 21.9% (269.3 mn) in 2011-12 Sustainable Development and Climate Change  The business-as-usual approach to development has entailed  Unless timely action is taken, the potential for reaping the demographic dividend is unlikely to last indefinitely unsustainable consumption patterns, essentially in developed countries  India’s per capita carbon emissions were 1.7 MT in 2010, well below the world average of 4.9 MT (misleading as population is high)  Adopted Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) ending in 2015  New climate deals must ensure that developing countries are granted the required ‘carbon space’ & ‘development space’. The State of the Economy 2013-14 47 26 November 2014
  • 48. Research Papers  Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence By  Evaluation of trade policy in India By Vijay L.K. Tools used  Microsoft Encarta (Encyclopedia for offline references)  Microsoft Excel (Data analysis) 48 References Websites  www. commerce.nic.in  www.dgft.gov.in  www.wto.org  www.wikipedia.org  www.indiabudget.nic.in  www.ifri.org  www.msme.gov.in Francisco Rodriguez Books  Introduction to Macroeconomics By Hyman The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 49. 49 So what? What can I do?  Agricultural, Educational & (Manufacturing) Industrial development are backbone of economy.  Let’s strengthen it by adding values to these sectors either as career in academia or as a professional. The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
  • 50. Thank you! The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014

Editor's Notes

  1. 2