The document provides an economic survey of India for 2013-14 prepared by the Ministry of Finance. It analyzes key economic indicators such as GDP growth, production, prices, external trade and debt, monetary trends, and government finances. Some highlights include:
- Real GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in 2013-14, the second successive year of sub-5% growth.
- Inflation remained above target levels and food inflation was a major contributor to overall inflation.
- Exports grew 4.1% in 2013-14 while imports declined 8.3%, improving the current account deficit.
- The survey identifies structural constraints like low manufacturing and agricultural productivity that are hampering the growth potential of
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India's Economic Survey 2013-14
1. The State of the Economy
CHAPTER- 1 : ECONOMIC SURVEY OF INDIA 2013 -14
Prepared by-
Swapnil Soni
DoMS, IISc
Course-
Macroeconomics
Instructor-
Prof. M.H. Bala Subrahmanya
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
2. 2
Index
Price & Monetary management
Inflation
Major contributor to headline WPI
Outlook for inflation
Monetary development
International trade, BoP & Debt
International trade
Service trade
Balance of Payment
External Debt
Priorities for reviving growth
Sectoral Developments
References
Economic survey of India- Introduction
Health of Economy with Economic
Indicators
Sectoral growth trend
Trend in employment
Input flows in economy
Aggregate Demand
Consumption
Investment
Net export
Public Finance
Domestic Savings
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
3. What?
• A flagship annual document of the Ministry of Finance, Government of India
• Ministry's view on the annual economic development of the country (13 Chapters)
Purpose?
• Summarizing the performance on major development programs, and highlights the policy
initiatives of the government and the prospects of the economy in the short to medium
term
Presented to?
• Bicameral houses of Parliament- Loksabha & Rajyasabha
3
Economic survey of India
Presented by?
• Finance Ministry of India
When?
• During the Budget Session
• Just before the Union Budget
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
4. Health of Economy
Assessing the health of Economy with Economic Indicators:
1. GDP
2. Production
3. Price
4. External Sector
5. Money & Credit
6. Fiscal Indicators
7. Population
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
5. Health of Economy (cont..)
Economic Survey of India 2013-14 : Key Indicators
Data categories 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
1 GDP and Related Indicators
GDP (current market prices) Rs Crore 6477827 7784115 90097222R 101132811R 11355073
Nominal GDP Growth Rate % 15.1 20.2 15.7 12.2 12.3
GDP (factor cost 2004-05 prices) ` 4516071 4918533 52475302R 54821111R 5741791
Real GDP Growth Rate % 8.6 8.9 6.7 4.5 4.7
Savings Rate % of GDP 33.7 33.7 31.3 30.1
Capital Formation Rate % of GDP 36.5 36.5 35.5 34.8
Per Capita Net National Income ` 46249 54021 61855 67839 74380
(factor cost at current prices)
2 Production
Food grains Million tonnes 218.1 244.5 259.3 257.1 264.4
Food Grains Production (growth) % 13 12.1 6.1 -0.8 2.8
Index of Industrial Production (growth) % 5.3 8.2 2.9 1.1 -0.1
Electricity Generation (growth) % 6.1 5.5 8.2 4 6.1
3 Prices
Inflation (WPI) (average) % 3.8 9.6 8.9 7.4 6
Inflation CPI (IW) (average) % 12.4 10.4 8.4 10.4 9.7
4 External Sector
Export (in US$ terms) % change -3.5 40.5 21.8 -1.8 4.1
Import (in US$ terms) % change -5 28.2 32.3 0.3 -8.3
Current Account Balance (CAB/GDP) % -2.8 -2.8 -4.2 -4.7 -1.7
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9 9.2 -3.4 -0.8 4.2
Average Exchange Rated Rs/US$ -4.0 -4.0 5.2 13.5 11.2
5 Money and Credit
Broad Money (M3) (annual) % change 16.9 16.1 13.2 13.6 13.3
Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit % change 16.9 21.5 17 14.1 13.9
6 Fiscal Indicators (Centre)
Gross Fiscal Deficit % of GDP 6.5 4.8 5.7 4.9 4.5
Revenue Deficit % of GDP 5.2 3.2 4.4 3.6 3.2
Primary Deficit % of GDP 3.2 1.8 2.7 1.8 1.2
7 Population Million n.a. 1210 n.a. n.a. n.a.
The State of the Economy 2013-14 5 26 November 2014
6. Health of Economy (cont..)
36.5 36.5
33.7 33.7
Real GDP: Average growth in the emerging markets and developing economies
including China declined from 6.8 % to 4.9 %
15.1
20.2
1. GDP and Related Indicators
35.5 34.8
31.3
15.7
30.1
12.2 12.3
8.6 8.9
6.7
4.5 4.7
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Percentage
Nominal GDP Growth Rate % Real GDP Growth Rate %
Savings Rate % of GDP Capital Formation Rate % of GDP
• Nominal GDP growth rate peaked during 2010-11 and kept declining afterwards
• Real GDP didn't surge any period and depicted sub-5% growth rate for last 2 years
• Difference in Nominal and Real GDP growth rate is attributed to inflation
• Although there is growth in GDP (yet slow), there is fall in saving rate and consequently capital formation rate
(MPC & Angel's Law)
The State of the Economy 2013-14 6 26 November 2014
7. Health of Economy (cont..)
13
12.1
2. Production
8.2
6.1
4
1.1
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
-0.8
6.1
2.8
6.1
5.3
8.2
2.9
-0.1
5.5
Percentage
Food Grains Production (growth) % Index of Industrial Production (growth) %
Electricity Generation (growth) %
• Steep decline in Agriculture production-negative growth in 2012-13
• Industrial production also reported fall in growth rate; major concern- negative in 2013-14
• Electricity followed cyclical trend and reported good growth in 2013-14
The State of the Economy 2013-14 7 26 November 2014
8. Health of Economy (cont..)
12.4
3.8
10.4
9.6
3. Prices
8.9
10.4
7.4
9.7
6
8.4
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Percentage
Inflation (WPI) (average) % Inflation CPI (IW) (average) %
• WPI always remained below CPI (IW)
• Last year both inflation indices reported decline in value yet CPI (IW) remained still above
‘Comfort level’
• Food inflation is observed to be major contributor in CPI (IW)
• WPI inflation in food articles averaged 12.2% during this periods
The State of the Economy 2013-14 8 26 November 2014
9. Health of Economy (cont..)
9 9.2
Foreign exchange reserves increased by
nearly US$ 40 billion from US$ 275 billion in
early September 2013 to US$ 314.9 billion on
20 June 2014
-0.8
4. External sector
--2.8 3.5
-2.8 -4.2 -4.7
40.5
32.3
21.8
0.3
-1.8
4.2
4.1
2009--5
10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
28.2
-1.7
-8.3
-3.4
Percentage
Export (in US$ terms) % change Import (in US$ terms) % change
Current Account Balance (CAB/GDP) % Foreign Exchange Reserves
• Drastic growth of Export & Import in 2010-11 and decline in 2012-13; Export again revived in
2013-14
• Reduction in Import last year brought good news and also reduced CAD
• Foreign Reserve increased dramatically in last year due to FII
The State of the Economy 2013-14 9 26 November 2014
10. Health of Economy (cont..)
16.9
21.5
16.1
5. Money and Credit
17
14.1 13.9
13.2 13.6 13.3
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Percentage
Broad Money (M3) (annual) % change Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit % change
• Broad Money depicts a constant increasing trend which can be reasoned out by the fact that real
GDP also has increasing growth trend
• M3 (Broad money)= M1 + time deposits of the public with banks
The State of the Economy 2013-14 10 26 November 2014
11. Health of Economy (cont..)
6.5
4.8
6. Fiscal Indicators
5.7
4.9
4.5
5.2
3.2
4.4
3.6
3.2
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Percentage
Gross Fiscal Deficit % of GDP Revenue Deficit % of GDP
• Both gross fiscal & Revenue deficit show declining trend since 2011
• It could be due to the fact that govt reduced its expenditure comparatively these years and there is increase in
Tax revenue
The State of the Economy 2013-14 11 26 November 2014
12. Health of Economy (cont..)
Highlights on Health
• Economic growth has slowed due to domestic structural and external factors. Two
successive years of sub-5 % growth is witnessed for the first time in 25 years.
• Inflation has eased but is still above comfort levels.
• Improvements are visible on the fiscal front and in the current account balance.
• Sustenance of early signs of growth pick-up depends on amelioration of structural
constraints.
Structural constraints
Delayed decisions on projects
thwarting investments
Ill-targeted subsidies
http://onlyzerocarbon.org/subsidies.html
The State of the Economy 2013-14 12 26 November 2014
13. Economic Indicators (cont..)
Structural constraints (cont..)
Low manufacturing base, especially of capital goods
.
Presence of a large informal sector and inadequate
labour absorption in the formal sector
The State of the Economy 2013-14 13 26 November 2014
14. Economic Indicators (cont..)
Structural constraints (cont..)
Sustaining high economic growth is difficult
without robust agricultural growth. Low
agricultural productivity is hampering this.
Significant presence of intermediaries->High food
inflation
The State of the Economy 2013-14 14 26 November 2014
15. Sectoral growth trend
• Trend in employment
• Input flows in economy
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
16. 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply
Construction Trade, hotels, transport, storage & communication
Financing, insurance, real estate & business services Community, social & personal services
GDP at factor cost
• Growth in almost all sectors declined for last 5 years so did GDP growth
• Last year 2013-14 advocates increased growth in Agriculture, Power, Construction & some service industry-
• Finance & Insurance sector has sustainable growth trend
• Concern: negative growth in Manufacturing & Mining
16
Sectoral growth trend
Sector 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
(Growth %)
14
12
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 5.8 0.1 0.8 8.6 5 1.4 4.7
Mining 10
& Quarrying 3.7 2.1 5.9 6.5 0.1 -2.2 -1.4
Manufacturing 10.3 4.3 11.3 8.9 7.4 1.1 -0.7
8
Electricity, gas & water supply 8.3 4.6 6.2 5.3 8.4 2.3 5.9
Construction 6
10.8 5.3 6.7 5.7 10.8 1.1 1.6
Trade, hotels, transport, storage & communication 10.9 7.5 10.4 12.2 4.3 5.1 3
Financing, 4
insurance, real estate & business services 12 12 9.7 10 11.3 10.9 12.9
Community, social & personal services 6.9 12.5 11.7 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.6
2
GDP at factor cost 9.3 6.7 8.6 8.9 6.7 4.5 4.7
0
Growth %
Rainfall (mm) 12 13 9 5 14 7 8
-2
-4
Finance
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
17. Sectoral growth trend
Role of Natural factor : Monsoon
• Favourable monsoons helped agricultural growth and power generation.
• Slowdown in industry continued.
12
13
9
8.6 8.9
8.6
5.7
5
14
7
8
10.8
9.3
5.8
6.7
5.3
0.1
6.7
Correlation Coefficient Rainfall
0.8
10.8
6.7
5
4.5 Agricultur
e, Forestry
& Fishing
1.4
4.7
1.1
Construction
1.6
GDP at
factor cost
Rainfall 1
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing -0.28781 1
Construction 0.652794 0.307227 1
GDP at factor cost 0.091466 0.372258 0.71487687 1
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Growth %
Rainfall Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Construction GDP at factor cost
• India’s major agriculture production depends on monsoon yet that also couldn’t help much in
recession during 2008-09
• Growth in agriculture & construction is attributed to monsoon in last 2 years
The State of the Economy 2013-14 17 26 November 2014
18. Major employer: Agriculture & Construction
• Slowdown in employment growth has been a serious concern in recent years
• Workforce increased from 398 million in 1999-2000 to 458 million in 2004-05
• Increase of nearly 60 million is nearly equally divided between the agriculture and
Silver Lining
• Decline in the share of employment in agriculture has been observed in most
• A decline in the labour force and workforce participation rates of women
• Rapid increase in female participation in education, both in the rural and urban areas.
18
Trend in employment
non-agriculture sectors
countries in their development process
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
19. Industry
Agriculture
Services
• Agriculture: around half of inputs from agriculture itself; remaining contributed
• Industrial sector, a pivotal for sustaining economic activity in the services sector
• A sustained recovery in the industrial sector is at the heart of a sustained growth recovery
19
Input flows in economy
equally by Industry & Services
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
20. Aggregate Demand
• Consumption
• Investment
• Net export
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
21. NE=X-M
% of GDP
• No major change in Consumption –’C’
• AD slightly increased owing to higher level of net export- (NE=X-M)
21
Aggregate Demand
TFCE: Total final consumption expenditure
GCF: Gross capital formation
FCF: Fixed capital formation
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
22. Consumption basket
A move away from non-durable goods, especially food items!
• The share of final consumption in GDP has been declining consistently since the 1950s
• Mainly the decline in share of PFCE but income increased
Income Saving Consumption
22
% of GDP
Consumption
TFCE: Total final consumption expenditure
PFCE: Private final consumption expenditure
GFCE: Govt final consumption expenditure
Why?
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
23. Sector-wise Investment as ratio of GDP
What drives investment?
Real or Nominal interest rate?
Treatment to Crowding out is to attain Richordian equivalence
• The year 2004-05 marked a break, with the rate of investment exceeding 30% for
• Private corporate investment is the major contributor to total investment;
decline of which deteriorated the overall investment ‘I’ & GDP as well
23
Investment
Investment
components
• Fixed capital
formation
• Acquisition of
valuables
• Changes in stock and
inventories
the first time
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
24. Net export
Correlation between indices
Import increase much faster than Export
Real GDP Growth
Rates (%)
Private
Consumption
Public
Consumption
Analysis on basis of 15 years data 1999-2K to 2013-14
Gross Fixed Capital
Formation
Exports
(US$bn)
Imports
(US$bn)
Trade deficit
(US$bn)
600
Real GDP Growth Rates (%) 1.000
Private Consumption 0.708 1.000
Public Consumption 0.557 0.546 1.000
Gross Fixed Capital
Formation
0.727 0.277 0.149 1.000
500
400
300
Exports (US$bn) -0.051 0.358 0.217 -0.297 1.000
Imports (US$bn) -0.038 0.379 0.268 -0.294 0.996 1.000
Trade deficit (US$bn) 0.017 -0.407 -0.342 0.285 -0.976 -0.991 1.000
Inferences
200
100
0
US$BN
• Real GDP growth, Private & Public Consumptions and Capital formation are highly
correlated.
-100
-200
• Export and Import are growing hand-in-hand.
Trade deficit= Export- Import
-300
Exports (US$bn) Imports (US$bn) Trade deficit (US$bn)
• Understood: Import increases -> Trade deficit decreases
• Riddle: Export increases -> Trade deficit decreases??
The State of the Economy 2013-14 24 26 November 2014
25. Public Finance
Study of the role of the government in the economy by means of:
(1) Efficient allocation of resources
(2) Distribution of income
(3) Macroeconomic stabilization.
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
26. Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003
Purpose:
• To institutionalise financial discipline
• To reduce India's fiscal & revenue deficit
• To improve macroeconomic management and the overall management of the
public funds by moving towards a balanced budget
Centre's Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
Indicator 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Centre's Fiscal
Target:
Defic6i.0t% -6 -5.7 -4.3 -3.9 -4 -3.3 -2.5 -6 -6.5 -4.8 -5.7 -4.9 -4.5
2013-14 -> 4.8 %
2016-17 -> 3.0 %
2.5%
• Fiscal deficit was successfully achieved 2.5% in 2007-08 against target of 3%
• 2008-09 Global crisis plummeted the this number to 6.5%
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
26
Public Finance
5.7%
4.3%
3.9% 4.0%
3.3%
6.0%
6.5%
4.8%
5.7%
4.9%
4.5%
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
27. Tax - GDP ratio
• Higher fiscal deficits usually lead to
• India’s government liabilities-GDP
• Raising the tax-GDP ratio and
27
Public Finance
The fiscal deficit of 4.5 per cent of GDP in 2013-14 as compared to the budgeted target of
4.8 per cent of GDP is indicative of continued focus on fiscal consolidation
Fiscal consolidation was achieved with lower-than budgeted expenditure in 2013-14
Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties and elevated global crude oil prices, fiscal
targets were achieved
Alternate solution to take on Fiscal deficit:
May result counter productive!
rising public debt.
ratio declined from 61.6% in 2002-03
to 49.4% in 2013-14
furtherance of subsidy reforms are
essential for fiscal consolidation
Laffer Curve
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
28. Domestic Savings
Not ‘Saving’…!
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
29. Domestic Savings Household Savings Private corporate Public sector
Saving Savings
A flow concept A stock concept
A disposable personal income minus
consumption
A part of a particular asset
It's the current output/income that is not
consumed or used up during the relevant
time
Savings is often equated
with investment for any economy
Gross Domestic Savings Rate and its Components as Percentage of GDP at Current Market Prices
29
Domestic Savings
Item 1990s 2000s 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Gross domestic savings 23 30.6 36.8 32 33.7 33.7 31.3 30.1
Household sector 17.7 23.1 22.4 23.6 25.2 23.1 22.8 21.9
Financial 9.6 10.8 11.6 10.1 12 9.9 7 7.1
Physical 8 12.3 10.8 13.5 13.2 13.2 15.8 14.8
Private corporate sector 3.6 6.3 9.4 7.4 8.4 8 7.3 7.1
Public sector 1.6 1.2 5 1 0.2 2.6 1.2 1.2
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
30. Gross Domestic Savings Rate and its Components as Percentage of GDP
13.5 13.2 13.2
1990S 2000S 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Gross domestic savings Household sector Financial
Physical Private corporate sector Public sector
• Gross domestic savings followed downward trend after 2007-08 that exhibited historic high
• Household is major contributor; it also showed decline
• In recent years, households tended to save more in physical than in financial assets
30
Domestic Savings
23
30.6
36.8
32
33.7 33.7
31.3
30.1
17.7
23.1 22.4
23.6
25.2
23.1 22.8
21.9
9.6
12.3
10.8
11.6
10.1
12
9.9
15.8
14.8
8.4 8 7.3 7 7.1
8
10.8
3.6
6.3
9.4
7.4
1.6 1.2
5
1
0.2
2.6
1.2 1.2
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
31. Price & Monetary management
• Inflation
• Major contributor to headline WPI
• Outlook for inflation
• Monetary Developments
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
32. Inflation
• Year 2009-10 depicted the highest level of CPI & lowest level of WPI
• High CPI is majorly attributed to food articles
• With increase in income level over a period there is decline in proportional consumption of
• Non-food items moderated the CPI- sticky Core Inflation
32
Price & Monetary management
Indicator 1999-2K 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062006-072007-082008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
WPI 3.3 7.1 3.6 3.4 5.5 6.5 3.7 6.5 4.8 8 3.6 9.6 8.8 7.5 5.9
CPI (IW) 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.2 6.8 6.2 9.1 12.3 10.5 8.4 10.2 9.5
food articles
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
33. Price & Monetary management
Major contributors to headline WPI inflation, Outlook & Monetary Developments
Villain No.-2
(Subsidy & MSP)
Villain No.-1
Hero – RBI’s monetary policy
• Contractionary in Inflation
• Expansionary in recession
High Income
• In 2013-14 inflation was chiefly confined to food and fuel, which contributed
nearly 2/3 of overall inflation
The State of the Economy 2013-14 33 26 November 2014
34. International trade
• International trade
• Service trade
• Balance of Payment
• External Debt
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
35. International trade
Peak- US $ 490 b during 2012-13 Source: http://dgft.gov.in/
The State of the Economy 2013-14 35
Increased Import
26 November 2014
36. International trade
Peak- US $ 306 b during 2011-12
The State of the Economy 2013-14 36
Source: http://dgft.gov.in/
Decreased Export
26 November 2014
37. International trade
The State of the Economy 2013-14 37
Source: http://dgft.gov.in/
26 November 2014
38. International trade
The State of the Economy 2013-14 38
Source: http://dgft.gov.in/
26 November 2014
39. International trade
Import from China- US $38 b Source: http://dgft.gov.in/
The State of the Economy 2013-14 39
26 November 2014
40. International trade
Export to USA- US $29 b
The State of the Economy 2013-14 40
Source: http://dgft.gov.in/
26 November 2014
41. Indicators 2000-01 2013-14
India’s share in world exports 0.7% 1.7 %
India’s share in world import 0.8% 2.5%
India’s total merchandise trade to GDP ratio 21.8% 44.1%
360.8
404.9
426
Forex & Debt
Concern!
Forex & Debt both grow hand in hand yet in
2010-11 external debt surpassed Forex
• Exports of petroleum products, engineering goods, chemicals and related
317.9
products accounted for more than half of total exports in 2013-14
275.6
283.5
297.3 296.7 296.6 295.7
303.6
• Imports of gold declined from 1078 tonnes 254.6
in 2011-260.9
12 to 1037 tonnes in 2012-
13 and further to 664 tonnes in 2013-14- on account of govt’s measures
134 139.1
131.2 137.2
177.3
172.4
224.4 224.5
Trade deficit Export Import
98.3 101.3 98.8 104.9 112.7
35.1 39.6
51
100.6
What caused 1999-2K reduced 2000-01 2001-trade 022002-032003-deficit 042004-to 052005-US$ 137.5 062006-billion 072007-082008-from 092009-US$ 10 190.3 2010-11 billion 2011-12 2012-during 13 2013-2012-14
13?
• The sharp decline in imports Forex Assets and (exc. a moderate gold)(US$bn) growth in External exports
Debt (US$bn)
• Demand slowdown and restrictions on non-essential imports
• ‘Swap window’ (US$ 34 bn) + lower CAD = increased Forex (US$ 314.9 bn)
41
International trade
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
43. • Rejuvenating growth in manufacturing, which has
significant backward & forward linkages. Simplification
of tax policy & administration
• Keeping fiscal deficit in check without compromising on capital
• Maintaining the CAD in the range of 2-2.5 % of GDP. This may turn out to
be challenging due to oil prices in external market
The Hindu, 18.11.14
• Fresh look at policies towards procurement, marketing, transport,
• To harness the demographic dividend, the non-agrarian sector must generate
43
Priorities for Reviving Growth
Revival of investment is crucial for raising the growth rate. This requires acceleration in
project clearances
expenditure
storage, and processing
employment
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
44. Sectoral Developments
• Agriculture and Food Management
• Industry and infrastructure
• Services Sector
• Financial Intermediation
• Human Development
• Sustainable Development and Climate Change
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
45. Industry and infrastructure
• Key reason for poor performance - contraction in mining and deceleration in
• Deceleration in investment particularly by the private corporate sector during 2012-13
• Slowdown in industry was reflected in lower sales growth in the corporate sector
• Maximum FDI attracted by- construction, telecom, computer software & hardware,
drugs, automobile, power, metallurgy, hotels & tourism
45
Sectoral Developments
Agriculture and Food Management
The year 2013-14 witnessed record food grains production
However, the share of public expenditure in total GCF
of the agriculture and allied sector declined from 25 % in
2006-07 to 14.7 % in 2012-13
Private investment as a proportion of agri-allied GDP
increased from 12.6 % in 2007-08 to 18.1 % in 2012-13
60 % of the total food grains and oilseeds are grown in the
Kharif season- largely dependent on Monsoon
Schemes
Task Force for Direct Transfer of fertilizer subsidy
Crop Diversification Scheme in Punjab & Haryana
Uniform taxes in the domestic market
manufacturing
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
46. Sectoral Developments
Services Sector
Fastest growing sector of the economy
Second fastest growing in the world, with a CAGR of
9%, behind China with a CAGR of 10.9 % during the period
from 2001 to 2012
Contributed substantially to foreign investment flows,
exports, and employment (27%)
Like industry, services also slowed during the last two
years
Decelerated: Trade, hotels & restaurants and transport,
storage, and communications
Accelerated: Financing, insurance, real estate, and
business services
Financial Intermediation
Financial reforms in 2013-14
Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA)
Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC)
NPAs of banks increased from 2.36% in 2011 to 3.90%
(total credit advanced) in 2014
The State of the Economy 2013-14 46 26 November 2014
47. Sectoral Developments
Human Development
Large and young population–great
demographic advantage
The proportion of working-age
population is likely to increase from 58%
in 2001 to 64% by 2021
At the heart of all of this lies a fair division of both
Human development index (HDI) = 0.554;
global rights and responsibilities
Global ranking slipped down to 136 from 134
The poverty ratio declined from 37.2% in
2004-05 to 21.9% (269.3 mn) in 2011-12
Sustainable Development and Climate Change
The business-as-usual approach to development has entailed
Unless timely action is taken, the potential
for reaping the demographic dividend is
unlikely to last indefinitely
unsustainable consumption patterns, essentially in
developed countries
India’s per capita carbon emissions were 1.7 MT in
2010, well below the world average of 4.9 MT (misleading as
population is high)
Adopted Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) ending in
2015
New climate deals must ensure that developing countries
are granted the required ‘carbon space’ & ‘development
space’.
The State of the Economy 2013-14 47 26 November 2014
48. Research Papers
Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence By
Evaluation of trade policy in India By Vijay L.K.
Tools used
Microsoft Encarta (Encyclopedia for offline references)
Microsoft Excel (Data analysis)
48
References
Websites
www. commerce.nic.in
www.dgft.gov.in
www.wto.org
www.wikipedia.org
www.indiabudget.nic.in
www.ifri.org
www.msme.gov.in
Francisco Rodriguez
Books
Introduction to Macroeconomics By Hyman
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
49. 49
So what?
What can I do?
Agricultural, Educational & (Manufacturing) Industrial development
are backbone of economy.
Let’s strengthen it by adding values to these sectors either as career in
academia or as a professional.
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014
50. Thank you!
The State of the Economy 2013-14 26 November 2014