2016 April GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through April 2016

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Over 45 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
Over 700,000 new inquiries in April 2016
Nearly 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 700 metro areas with over 10,000 inquiries

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Agenda
1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3.  Views by Program and Segment
4.  Trends in Employment and Job Postings
5.  Summary

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Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Overall inquiry volumes for higher education fell 12% year-over-year.
§  Inquiries have decreased every month in 2016.
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
-12% YoY

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Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries decreased 10% year-over-year in April.
§  After increasing for 7 consecutive months, branded inquiries were down for the second straight month.
§  Branded inquiries have also been flat month-over-month since February.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
National Branded Inquiries
-10% YoY

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External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries decreased for the fifth consecutive month.
§  This was the lowest April volume in over four years.
§  External inquiries have dropped year-over-year in 14 of the last 16 months.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries
-13% YoY

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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
Overall conversion rates have been volatile.
§  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as much as 20%.
§  The most recent mature quarter was even with Q1 2014.
§  The first mature month in 2016 is up 3%.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.

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Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for Branded Inquiries
In Q4 2015, conversion rates reached their lowest point in over two years.
§  Branded inquiries are inquiries that come directly to institutions (school websites and call centers).
§  As schools have worked to get more branded inquiries, average quality has fallen.
§  There was an uptick for Q3 2015 inquiries, but it has not been sustained.
9.0%
8.2% 8.3% 8.2%
6.9% 7.1%
8.2%
6.7%
6.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16
Branded Inquiries: Conversion Rates

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Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for External Inquiries
After trending up into mid-2015, conversion rates for external inquiries have leveled oﬀ.
§  External inquiries are inquiries that are generated by third parties, often referred to as PPI inquiries.
§  Institutions have been turning to higher-quality inquiry providers, driving up conversion rates.
§  Schools need admissions channels that can cost-eﬀectively manage these “lower-octane” inquiries.
1.8%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.0%
2.3%
2.4%
2.0%
2.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16
External Inquiries: Conversion Rates

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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For January inquiries, total student conversions decreased 8% year-over-year.
§  This was the lowest number of conversions for January inquiries in over four years.
§  Conversions of February inquiries might reach last year’s levels once matured, but March and April have a lot of
ground to make up to do the same.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-8% YoY
Immature Months1

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Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
The price of an external inquiry increased 3% year-over-year.
§  After a slight spike for February inquiries, average price is back near $45.
§  Better inquiries may cost more—and institutions are competing for fewer inquiries.
2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.80 $44.95
$44.95
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

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Agenda
5.  Summary

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Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs fell 9% year-over-year in April.
§  While the last four months in 2015 showed big year-over-year increases, it now appears that those were driven
more by big drops in the prior year than sustainable growth in 2015.
§  However, April did match its 2014 volumes for the first time this year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
-9% YoY

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Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for Online Programs
Conversion rates for inquiries for online programs are returning to 2014 levels.
§  Conversion rates have mostly ranged between 2.4% and 2.9% over the past two years.
§  The spike for Q3 2015 inquiries to 3.3% appears to have been an anomaly, and conversion rates since then have
been consistent with the earlier pattern.
2.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.5%
2.4% 2.4%
3.3%
2.8%
2.5%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16
Conversion Rate Trends for Online Programs

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Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online programs fell 6% in January.
§  This ended a five month streak of conversion growth.
─  Conversions of February inquiries look like they will also be below year-before levels.
─  Conversions of March inquiries are on track to come in close to last year.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
-6% YoY

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
Student inquiries for on-campus higher education programs dropped 10% year-over-year.
§  All four months so far in 2016 have fallen below year-ago and 2014 levels.
§  March had recovered slightly compared to January and February, but April is back down to a double-digit
percentage decrease.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-10% YoY

GRAY
4.3%
4.0%
4.4%
4.7%
3.8%
3.6% 3.7%
3.4%
3.6%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16
Conversion Rate Trends for On-Campus Programs
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for On-Campus Programs
Conversion rates for on-campus program inquiries have been stable since Q1 2015.
§  For 2014 inquiries, conversion rates for on-campus programs ranged 4.0% to 4.7%.
§  For 2015 inquiries, conversion rates were substantially lower: 3.4% to 3.8%.
§  January 2016 inquiries converted at a rate consistent with the lower 2015 norm.

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 22% YoY in January.
§  Inquiries from the past three months are on track to reach last year’s conversion levels.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-22% YOY
Immature Months1

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Agenda
5.  Summary

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The Big 5 Programs: April Growth
Two of the big five programs grew slightly after big changes in the prior year.
§  Criminal Justice/Police Science grew 12% and Registered Nursing grew 7% year-over-year.
§  Medical Assistant and Administrative Assistant continued to fall.
-67%
93%
22%
-13%
1%
12% 7%
-6%
-23%
-31%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Criminal Justice/Police
Science.
Registered Nursing/
Registered Nurse.
Business Administration and
Management, General.
Medical/Clinical Assistant. Administrative Assistant and
Secretarial Science, General.
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

GRAY
10%
38% 47%
297%
79%
63% 61% 56%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Counseling Psychology. Music, General. Computer Programming/
Programmer, General.
Truck and Bus Driver/
Commercial Vehicle Operator
and Instructor.
Liberal Arts and Sciences/
Liberal Studies.
The Fast 5
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Five new programs showed up in the five fastest growing programs.
§  Counseling Psychology grabbed the top spot and almost tripled in April.
§  Such rapid growth often reflects changes in competitive marketing activity and reporting.
§  The other four programs grew more than 50% in April.
1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012).

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
Once again, the biggest cities were down year-over-year.
§  April did not change much from what we saw in March.
§  For the second straight month, Chicago had the largest decline and Philadelphia had the smallest.
-13%
-28%
-3%
-8%
-5%
-8%
-22%
-24%
-30%
-33%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
The Fast 5 Cities for All Inquiries
Three northeast markets were among the five fastest growing cities in April.
§  Providence and Hartford replaced Oklahoma City and Tulsa in the Fast 5 cities.
§  All five cities grew 10% or more.
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.
1%
-6%
-19%
-34%
-8%
21% 19%
16%
11% 10%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Boston, MA Providence, RI New Orleans, LA Minneapolis, MN Hartford, CT
Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
NewNew

GRAY
-35%
-28%
-13%
-11%
-10%
-8%
-6%
4%
10%
10%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Unknown Degree
Associate's
External
Campus
Online
Certificate
Branded
Doctorate
Bachelor's
Master's
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
2014/2015 vs. 2015/2016 (February – April)
Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3 Months
Quarterly inquiries for higher-level degrees continued to grow.
§  Higher-level degrees continued to have the highest inquiry growth.
§  Once again, internal inquiries declined slightly.
§  For the quarter, both on-campus and online programs fell.

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel - Trailing 3 Months
For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries.
§  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel.
§  Four diﬀerent branded inquiry channels grew in April.
-77%
-37%
-32%
-23%
-21%
-19%
-14%
-10%
-9%
-6%
0%
2%
40%
71%
78%
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Display: Branded
Offline Media: Branded
Email: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
Referral: Branded
Affiliate: External
All Other Internal: Branded
PPC: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
PPL: External
Website: Branded
Interactive: Branded
Organic: Branded
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
Social Media: Branded
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(February – April, YoY)

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Agenda
5.  Summary

GRAY
BLS Projections of Employment Changes Have Limited Value
BLS forecasts are a weak predictor of future employment.
R² = 0.50218
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
-50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Actual Change
in Employment
2012-2015
Projected Change in Employment 2012-2015
BLS Actual Employment Change vs. Projected Change for
2012-2015 By Detailed Occupation Group
Actual = Predicted
Home Health Aide
Stock Clerks and
Order Fillers
Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and BLS Employment Projections 2012-2022

GRAY
Job Postings Are Quite Consistent Over Time
New Job Postings in 2012 were a better predictor.
R² = 0.91286
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
0 250,000 500,000 750,000
2015-16 New
Job Postings
2012-13 New Job Postings
New Job Postings
By 8-Digit SOC*
Home Health
Aides
Stock Clerks
and Order
Fillers
Source: WANTED Analytics. Excludes SOC 53-3032.00 Commercial Truck Drivers.

GRAY
Overall Largest Occupations by Job Postings
The largest occupations, trucking and nursing, had over 1 million job postings in the past year.
§  Computer-related occupations also ranked high, occupying three of the top ten spots.
492,203
505,619
519,307
522,770
576,040
628,268
754,170
814,311
1,355,178
1,466,785
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000
Computer Systems Analysts
Accountants and Auditors
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
Computer User Support Specialists
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support
Workers
Software Developers, Applications
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
Customer Service Representatives
Registered Nurses
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
National Job Postings by Standard Occupation Code
May 2015 to May 2016
Job Postings (Volume)
Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. Note that data shown is for all MSAs, so it excludes rural areas.

GRAY
Occupations with the Greatest Growth over the Past Year (Among the Top 100 SOC Occupations)
The strongest occupations saw job posting increases of about 30%.
§  Healthcare and information technology occupations grew fastest.
12%
13%
13%
14%
16%
20%
25%
25%
27%
30%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Registered Nursing
Software Developers, Systems Software
Physical Therapists
Construction Managers
Advertising Sales Agents
Medical Records and Health Information Technicians
Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists
Information Security Analysts
Pharmacists
Pharmacy Technicians
Percentage Increase in Job Postings by SOC
May 2015-May 2016 vs. Prior Year
Year-Over-Year Change

GRAY
Overall Largest Educational Programs by Related Job Postings
We crosswalk jobs to academic programs, to help schools pick programs with good student outcomes.
§  For programs that map 1:1 with occupations (e.g., Nursing), CIP and SOC job postings are similar.
§  But in many fields, such as Computer Science, jobs postings for CIPs may diﬀer from postings by SOC.
592,051
695,182
713,292
814,311
1,031,232
1,042,140
1,138,312
1,141,971
1,358,448
1,815,149
0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 2,000,000
Culinary Arts/Chef Training
Marketing/Marketing Management
Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science
Customer Service Support
Selling Skills and Sales Operations
Computer and Information Sciences, General
Computer Science
Business Administration and Management
Registered Nursing
Truck and Bus Driver
National Job Postings by CIP
Job Postings (Volume)

GRAY
Educational Programs (among top 100 CIPs by volume) with the greatest growth in related job postings.
Programs in healthcare and education had the fastest job growth.
§  Job postings in pharmacy-related fields grew more than 25% year-over-year.
10%
11%
11%
12%
13%
13%
18%
20%
26%
30%
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
Teacher Assistant
Licensed Practical/Vocational Nursing
Special Education
Registered Nursing
Physical Therapy
Medicine
Criminal Justice/Police Science
Medical Insurance Coding/Billing
Pharmacy
Pharmacy Technician
Percentage Increase in Job Postings by CIP
2014 vs. 2015
Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. Year ending May 2015 vs. Year Ending May 2014

GRAY
Wages and Job Growth, from Job Postings Data
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Job Growth vs. Wages:
Which Occupations have both?25th Percentile
Wages
Pharmacists
Advertising Sales
Agents
Software
Developers,
Systems Software
Physical Therapists
Pharmacy Technicians
Medical Sciences, Except
Epidemiologists
Information
Security
Analysts
Construction Managers
Medical Records and
Health Information
Technicians

GRAY
Putting It All Together: The PES Scorecard
This example shows how our new employment data is incorporated in overall program scoring.

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Putting It All Together: Program Ranking
This chart summarizes the program scorecards for all IPEDS programs, making it easy to see what’s best.

GRAY
Agenda
5.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
April generally underperformed.
§  Inquiry volumes fell 10%.
─  Branded down 10%
─  Online down 9%
─  On-campus down 10%
§  Conversions of January inquiries were down 8% YoY.
─  It is too early to tell if February of 2016 will reach last year’s levels.
§  Prices are up year-over-year, at close to $45.
§  Higher degree levels continue to outperform; Associate’s programs lag.
§  Job posting data is a valuable addition to employment analysis.
§  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions.
─  Where to focus your marketing—by program and market
─  What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webinars
Please join us next month!
June Webinar
(May Results)
Thursday, June 16th at 2:00 PM EDT

2016 April GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

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2016 April GrayReports - Student Demand Trends