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Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2013
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Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2013

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The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker conducted by Ipsos MORI finds that a majority of the British public think that the next 12 months will be a good time to sell property. ...

The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker conducted by Ipsos MORI finds that a majority of the British public think that the next 12 months will be a good time to sell property.

This is the first time positive sentiment has exceeded negative sentiment in eleven Ipsos MORI surveys for Halifax since April 2011.

Full poll: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3321/Halifax-Housing-Market-Confidence-Tracker.aspx

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    Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2013 Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2013 Presentation Transcript

    • Paste cobrand logo here Q4 2013 Ipsos MORI summary of findings & trends 2/1/2014 © Ipsos MORI
    • House Price Outlook trend Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI] HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) 80 +64 +66 Sep-13 Dec-13 60 +40 +33 40 +19 20 +9 +15 +15 Jun-12 Oct-12 +20 +7 -2 0 -20 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ © Ipsos MORI Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
    • HPO and EOI trends Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI) 80 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse +64 +66 60 +33 40 +19 20 +9 +15 +15 +40 +20 HPO EOI +23 +7 +15 -2 0 0 -20 -40 -9 -14 -28 -6 -19 -32 -32 Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI (measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork) -48 -60 Apr-11 © Ipsos MORI Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
    • HPO and selling sentiment Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? 80 60 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower +64 +66 50 60 Selling sentiment (% agree good time to sell) 51% +40 40 41% +33 +19 +15 20 +9 +7 11% 0 13% -2 +15 40 HPO 30 +20 30% 20 24% 18% 15% 10% 21% Selling sentiment (%) 10 13% -20 0 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker © Ipsos MORI
    • ‘Higher’ trends Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) 40 34% % the same 27% 20 % < 5% higher 19% % 5 - 10% higher 8% % 10 - 15% higher % > 15% higher 3% 0 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker © Ipsos MORI
    • ‘Lower’ trends Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) 40 % the same 20 % < 5% lower 19% % 5 - 10% lower % 10 - 15% lower % > 15% lower 0 Apr-11 3% 2% 1% 0% Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker © Ipsos MORI
    • Buying and selling sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Net (±) Net good time buy Net good time sell 80 60 40 20 +18 +17 +15 +24 +23 +27 +25 +20 +35 +27 +12 0 -6 -20 -40 -38 -43 -26 -55 -42 -60 -80 Apr 2011 -63 Oct 2011 -62 -64 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 June 2012 Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ © Ipsos MORI Oct 2012 -58 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 June 2013 Sept 2013 Dec 2013 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
    • Buying/selling sentiment combined Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? 38% 23% 12% 15% Good time buy/ good time sell Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell +8 -3 +1 Base: 1,964 GB adults 16+, 29 Nov-5 Dec 2013 © Ipsos MORI Bad time buy/ bad time sell -5 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
    • Regional dimension: house prices Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? London GB South England 83% 72% North England Midlands 79% higher higher 68% higher higher 58% higher 6% 4% 2% 8% lower lower lower lower 10% lower Base: 1,964 GB adults 16+, 29 Nov-5 Dec 2013, including 266 in London, 409 South England (SE, SW), 500 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 336 in the Midlands. Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax © Ipsos MORI
    • Regional buying sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? London GB 63% good time 57% South England 68% good time good time 28% 39% bad time bad time 23% bad time North England Midlands 62% 62% good time good time 28% 28% bad time bad time Base: 1,964 GB adults 16+, 29 Nov-5 Dec 2013, including 266 in London, 409 South England (SE, SW), 500 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 336 in the Midlands. Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax © Ipsos MORI
    • Regional selling sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? London GB 69% 51% good time good time 39% bad time South England 25% bad time North England Midlands 61% good time 31% bad time 49% 48% bad time good time 41% 40% good time bad time Base: 1,964 GB adults 16+, 29 Nov-5 Dec 2013, including 266 in London, 409 South England (SE, SW), 500 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 336 in the Midlands. Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax © Ipsos MORI
    • PRS rent expectations (PRS renters) Q. What do you think will happen to the rents tenants are charged by private landlords that is individuals and companies working in the private sector (i.e. not local councils and housing associations). Taking your answer from this screen and regardless of whether or not you rent your home, do you think that private rents will be higher, lower, or will they be the same in 12 months time? 60 % a little higher 52% 40 % the same 20 31% % a lot higher 11% % a lot/little lower 4% 0 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Base: c300-400 private renters © Ipsos MORI Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
    • Barriers to buying Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Change + Raise deposit Job security Household finances Rising property prices Availability of mortgages Concerns - interest rate rises Fees and costs of buying a house Shortage of the right type of property Shortage of property for sale Falling property prices Level of stamp duty / taxation Don't know 61% 56% 36% 25% 25% 14% 10% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% -2 -2 -3 +1 +2 +3 +1 +2 -1 +1 -2 -1 Base: 1,964 GB adults 16+, 29 Nov-5 Dec 2013 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker © Ipsos MORI
    • Further information is available here Paste cobrand logo here ben.marshall@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3461 elizabeth.copp@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3165 © Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI 2/1/2014