Dudley L. Poston at the 4th Asian Population Association Conference

1. Current and Projected Elderly Populations of the
East Asian Countries of China, Japan, Taiwan,
South Korea and North Korea:
Implications for Eldercare
Dudley L. Poston, Jr.
Texas A&M University
College Station, Texas, USA
d-poston@tamu.edu

2. Figure 1. Number of Years for the Population of the
World to Reach Its First through Its Eighth Billion
2

4. Figure 3.
World Population Growth Rates, 1700 to 2100

5. Table 1: Ten Countries of the World with Largest
Shares of Persons aged 60+: 1980, 2017, 2050

6. Table 2. Percentage of the Population Aged 60 and over:
The World and Regions of the World, 2017 and 2050
Region 2017 2050
World 12.7 21.3
Africa 5.5 8.9
Asia 12.2 24.2
East Asia 17.7 35.7
Central Asia 8.8 18.8
Southern Asia 8.8 18.9
Southeast Asia 9.9 21.0
Western Asia 8.3 18.2
Europe 24.7 34.5
Latin America & Caribbean 11.8 25.4
North America 21.7 28.3
Oceania 17.0 23.3

7. Figure 4
Japan, Population by Age, 1950 to 2100
Percent Distributions by
Broad Age Groups
Age Group 1950 2015 2050 2100
0-14 35.4 13.0 12.6 13.3
15-64 59.7 61.0 51.1 51.2
65+ 4.9 26.0 36.4 35.5
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

8. Figure 5
China, Population by Age, 1950 to 2100
Percent Distributions by
Broad Age Groups
Age Group 1950 2015 2050 2100
0-14 34.0 17.7 14.0 13.9
15-64 61.5 72.6 59.7 54.4
65+ 4.4 9.7 26.3 31.7
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

9. Figure 6
Taiwan, Population by Age, 1950 to 2100
Percent Distributions by
Broad Age Groups
Age Group 1950 2015 2050 2100
0-14 42.0 13.8 11.5 14.0
15-64 55.8 74.0 54.0 51.6
65+ 2.2 12.3 34.5 34.4
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

10. Figure 7
South Korea, Population by Age, 1950 to 2100
Percent Distributions by
Broad Age Groups
Age Group 1950 2015 2050 2100
0-14 42.5 13.9 11.5 13.5
15-64 54.6 73.1 53.2 50.8
65+ 2.9 13.0 35.3 35.7
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

11. Figure 8
North Korea, Population by Age, 1950 to 2100
Percent Distributions,
Broad Age Groups
Age Group 1950 2015 2050 2100
0-14 43.4 21.1 16.5 14.9
15-64 53.5 69.2 63.7 56.5
65+ 3.1 9.7 19.8 28.5
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

12. Figure 9. Total Fertility Rates, China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, 1950 to 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
TFR
Year
South Korea North Korea China Taiwan Japan
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2017 Revision, Volume II, Demographic Profiles. New York, NY: United Nations, 2017.

13. Figure 10. Aged Dependency Ratios: World, Asia, East Asia, USA:
2015 to 2100, Under Assumption of Constant-Fertility
0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
ADR
Year World Asia Eastern Asia USA
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2017. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York: NY:

14. Figure 11. Aged Dependency Ratios: China, Taiwan, Japan, USA:
2015 to 2100, Under Assumption of Constant-Fertility
0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
ADR
Year China Taiwan Japan USA
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.2017. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York, NY:
United Nations.

15. Figure 12. Aged Dependency Ratios: South Korea, North Korea, USA:
2015 to 2100, Under Assumption of Constant-Fertility
0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
ADR
Year South Korea North Korea USA
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2017. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York, NY:

16. Figure 13. Surplus (in millions) of Men Over Women, by Age: China, 2010
Source: Isabelle Attane, Population and Societies, #557, July-August, 2018

17. END of PRESENTATION
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