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Welsh Government Future Trends 2017: population

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The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the population theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.

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Welsh Government Future Trends 2017: population

  1. 1. Welsh Government Future Trends Report 2017– Population Theme data slides The following slides provide background data and graphs used for the Population theme in the Future Trends Report 2017
  2. 2. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Africa Southern Asia India China Europe U28 South America USA Russia Global population is projected to continue to increase. Large population increases are projected for Africa and India (and Southern Asia generally). China is projected to increase until 2030 but then to fall. 1950 205020001975 2025 Source: OECD and UN population (millions)
  3. 3. 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 2015 210020572036 2078 Russia Germany Spain Italy UK France Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs The UK is projected, under recent trends, to become the largest country in Europe other than Russia over the next half century
  4. 4. The population of Wales is also projected to continue to grow, by around 4% over the next twenty years Wales: population projections Source: StatsWales 3.11 million 3.21 million 3.25 million 2,950 3,000 3,050 3,100 3,150 3,200 3,250 3,300 2016 2026 2036 Thousands
  5. 5. estimated and projected population of Wales, mid-1981 to mid-2039 (millions) Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 1983 20391991 1999 2007 2015 2023 2031 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 Growth is expected under a number of different scenarios, although not inevitable and depends on trends in fertility and migration high fertility, high life expectancy, high migration high fertility, low life expectancy, high migration high migration high fertility high life expectancy principal projection low life expectancy low fertility low migration low fertility, high life expectancy, low migration low fertility, low life expectancy, low migration principal projection
  6. 6. The growth in population is primarily driven by increases in those aged 65 or above Wales: population projections Source: StatsWales 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 index: 2016 = 100 all ages 0-15 65+ 16-64 all ages 0-15 65+ 16-64
  7. 7. 570,000 567,000 570,000 567,000 570,000 567,000 With the numbers aged 65 or above set to be 37 per cent higher by 2041 and working age population falling Source: StatsWales 866,869 778,319 642,945 1,839,994 1,888,877 1,924,544 548,965 562,116 558,731 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2041 2029 2017 0-15 16-64 65+
  8. 8. Isle of Anglesey Neath Port Talbot Gwynedd Bridgend Conwy Vale of Glamorgan Denbighshire Cardiff Flintshire Rhondda Cynon Taf Wrexham Merthyr Tydfil Powys Caerphilly Ceredigion Blaenau Gwent Pembrokeshire Torfaen Carmarthenshire Monmouthshire Swansea Newport Isle of Anglesey Neath Port Talbot Gwynedd Bridgend Conwy Vale of Glamorgan Denbighshire Cardiff Flintshire Rhondda Cynon Taf Wrexham Merthyr Tydfil Powys Caerphilly Ceredigion Blaenau Gwent Pembrokeshire Torfaen Carmarthenshire Monmouthshire Swansea Newport projected population change for local authorities in Wales (2014 to 2039) Population growth will not be uniform across Wales with some areas projected to see a decline, and others increasing significantly
  9. 9. … Gwynedd, Wrexham, Ceredigion, Swansea, Bridgend, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf, and Newport are projected to increase steadily between 2014 and 2039. … the Isle of Anglesey, Blaenau Gwent, and Powys are projected to decrease steadily between 2014 and 2039. … Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Carmarthenshire, Neath Port Talbot, the Vale of Glamorgan, Caerphilly, and Monmouthshire are projected to increase then decrease, but to remain higher in 2039 than in 2014. … Pembrokeshire, Torfaen, and Merthyr Tydfil are projected to increase then decrease, but to finish lower in 2039 than in 2014. The populations of …
  10. 10. The population of older people is expected to see a large relative increase, with the number of people in Wales aged 80 and over projected to increase by over a quarter over the next 10 years, and by over 80 per cent over the next 25 years. Wales: population projections for people aged 80 and over Source: StatsWales 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 age 80+
  11. 11. People aged 90 and over in Wales F/M=2.8 5,211 16,086 21,297 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Mid-year 2008 Persons Female Male 8,985 8,746 8,285 7,971 7,481 20,779 20,855 20,777 20,854 20,323 29,764 29,601 29,062 28,825 27,804 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Mid-year 2017 Mid-year 2016 Mid-year 2015 Mid-year 2014 Mid-year 2013 Persons Female Male F/M= 2.7 F/M= 2.6 F/M= 2.3 F/M= 2.4 F/M= 2.5 Female/Male=3.1
  12. 12. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 dependency ratio 65+ 0-15 1991 20392007 2023 As a consequence the adult to older person dependency ratio will increase sharply over time, although more stable for children children and older people in Wales as proportions of working age people Source: StatsWales
  13. 13. Components of Population Change Source: StatsWales Over the longer period migration is projected to be the biggest driver in population growth. In the medium term (10 years) natural change (that is, births minus deaths) is projected to account for around 3% of population growth in Wales, international migration 67%, and UK migration 29%. International migration-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2016 to 2017 2021 to 2022 2026 to 2027 2031 to 2032 2036 to 2037 international migration UK migration natural change (births - deaths) overall population change
  14. 14. average annual net migration flows for Wales with England by age group, mid-2016 to mid-2017 Source: internal migration estimates, ONS The picture of migration to England is mixed with Wales a net gainer for most age groups. In total all regions are net gainers from England. -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 North Wales Mid Wales South West Wales South East Wales 0 to 15 16 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65+
  15. 15. Life expectancy is projected to continue to increase, but there are big uncertainties about how far this will continue Source: ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/pa standprojecteddatafromtheperiodandcohortlifetables/previousReleases https://www. ons.gov.uk/pe oplepopulatio nandcommun ity/birthsdeat hsandmarriag es/lifeexpecta ncies/bulletin s/pastandproj ecteddatafro mtheperiodan dcohortlifetab les/previousR eleases
  16. 16. But “healthy life expectancy” is important and may impact the nature of future pressures and health service use. Overall, people can expect to spend just over three quarters of their life in good health; at age 65, people can expect to spend just over half their remaining life in good health. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, Wales, 2013-15 Healthy Life expectancy Life expectancy % of life in good health Males at birth 61.5 78.4 78.4 Females at birth 62.7 82.3 76.2 Males at age 65 9.8 18.1 54.0 Females at age 65 10.7 20.5 52.3 Source: Office for National Statistics https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectanc ies/bulletins/healthstatelifeexpectanciesuk/2013to2015
  17. 17. So although the number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase sharply, the number of deaths is far more stable. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Source: ONS projections people 75+ deaths index: 2015 = 100 2015 20392023 2031 Wales: projections for deaths and people aged 75 and over
  18. 18. Source: StatsWales indexed population and household growth in Wales, 2016-2039 Demographic change will also influence housing demand, particularly when combined with changes in household composition. In Wales the number of households is projected (2014-based) to grow faster than the population between 2016 and 2039. 96.0 98.0 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0 108.0 110.0 112.0 114.0 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 households population index: 2016 = 100
  19. 19. For more information on the Welsh Government Future Trends Report 2017, please visit the following address: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/future-trends/ Background data slides are also available on the website for the other Themes of the Future Trends Report: Health; Economy & Infrastructure; Climate Change; Land Use & Infrastructure; and Society & Culture.

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