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Trends Shaping Education 2019

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Presentation made by Andreas Schleicher, Director for the OECD Directorate of Education and Skills, at the Education World Forum, 21st January 2019, London

Did you ever wonder whether education has a role to play in preparing our societies for an age of artificial intelligence? Or what the impact of climate change might be on our schools, families and communities?

Trends Shaping Education ( http://www.oecd.org/edu/trends-shaping-education-22187049.htm) examines major economic, political, social and technological trends affecting education. While the trends are robust, the questions raised in this book are suggestive, and aim to inform strategic thinking and stimulate reflection on the challenges facing education – and on how and whether education can influence these trends.

This book covers a rich array of topics related to globalisation, democracy, security, ageing and modern cultures. The content for this 2019 edition has been updated and also expanded with a wide range of new indicators. Along with the trends and their relationship to education, the book includes a new section on future’s thinking inspired by foresight methodologies.

This book is designed to give policy makers, researchers, educational leaders, administrators and teachers a robust, non specialist source of international comparative trends shaping education, whether in schools, universities or in programmes for older adults. It will also be of interest to students and the wider public, including parents.




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Trends Shaping Education 2019

  1. 1. STARTING STRONG Wollongong Andreas Schleicher Trends shaping education
  2. 2. The rise of the global middle class 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023 2029 Headcount(billions) %ofworldpopulation World middle class share of world population World middle class World population Within the next decade the majority of the world population will consist of the middle class Estimates of the size of the global middle class, percentage of the world population (left axis) and headcount (right axis), 1950-2030 Source: Kharas, H. (2017), The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class, an update, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/global_20170228_global-middle-class.pdf. Kharas, H. (2010), The emerging middle class in developing countries, https://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf. Figure 1.2
  3. 3. Growing unequal Income gaps continues to grow Trends in real household incomes by percentile, OECD average, 1985-2015 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Bottom 10% Mean Median Top 10% Source: OECD (2018), A Broken Social Elevator? How to Promote Social Mobility, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264301085-en. Figure 2.1 Index 1985 = 1
  4. 4. More people on the move -30 20 70 120 170 220 270 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Millionsofpeople Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania Estimates of international migrant stock by region of destination, 1990-2017 Source: United Nations (2017), "International migrant stock: The 2017 revision" (database), www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/. Figure 1.5
  5. 5. Security in a risky world Household savings and debt Household savings (% of disposable income, left axis) and household debt (% of disposable income, right axis), OECD average, 1970-2016 Source: OECD (2018), OECD National Accounts Statistics (database), https://stats.oecd.org/. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Debtas%ofdisposableincome Savingsas%ofdisposableincome Savings (left axis) Debt (right axis) Figure 3.9
  6. 6. Access to Access Number of mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, OECD average, 2009-2017 Source: OECD (2018), "Mobile broadband subscriptions" (indicator), https://doi.org/10.1787/1277ddc6-en. Figure 5.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Numberofsubscriptions
  7. 7. 7 Digitalisation Democratizing Concentrating Particularizing Homogenizing Empowering Disempowering
  8. 8. 8 Digitalisation Democratizing Concentrating Particularizing Homogenizing Empowering Disempowering The post-truth world where reality becomes fungible • Virality seems privileged over quality in the distribution of information • Truth and fact are losing currency Scarcity of attention and abundance of information • Algorithms sort us into groups of like-minded individuals create echo chambers that amplify our views, leave us uninformed of opposing arguments, and polarise our societies
  9. 9. 15-year-olds feeling bad if not connected to the Internet (PISA) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 ChineseTaipei-2 Sweden-9 France-5 Portugal Greece Singapore-2 Thailand Macao(China)-7 Brazil-2 Spain UnitedKingdom Bulgaria HongKong(China) Korea-7 Belgium-4 Denmark-4 Croatia-5 Israel-10 NewZealand-4 Netherlands-3 Uruguay Hungary4 Australia OECDaverage-3 DominicanRepublic Ireland-7 Poland-3 CostaRica3 Lithuania Japan-5 Mexico Russia-8 CzechRepublic Italy Peru Colombia4 Finland-6 Chile Latvia SlovakRepublic B-S-J-G(China)11 Switzerland Austria-3 Luxembourg Iceland Germany Estonia Slovenia % Boys Girls
  10. 10. Students are using more time online outside school on a typical school day (PISA) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Chile39 Sweden56 Uruguay33 CostaRica31 Spain44 Italy40 Australia52 Estonia50 NewZealand51 Hungary43 Russia42 Netherlands48 Denmark55 SlovakRepublic40 CzechRepublic43 Austria42 Latvia46 Singapore45 Belgium44 Poland46 Iceland51 ECDaverage-2743 Ireland48 Croatia40 Portugal42 Finland48 Israel34 Macao(China)45 Switzerland40 Greece41 ongKong(China)39 Mexico30 Slovenia37 Japan31 Korea20 Minutes per day 2015 2012 Percentage of High Internet Users (spending 2 to 6 hours on line per day), during weekdays
  11. 11. The kind of things that are easy to teach are now easy to automate, digitize or outsource 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009 Routine manual Nonroutine manual Routine cognitive Nonroutine analytic Nonroutine interpersonal Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution
  12. 12. Combined registered users of Upwork and Freelancer Freeing up work? Sources: OECD (2017), OECD Employment Outlook 2017, https://doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook-2017-en. Figure 5.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Millionusers
  13. 13. Mass self-communication and creative expression Individuals using the Internet (last 3 months) for uploading self-created content on sharing websites, 2008 and 2017 Source: OECD (2018), ICT Access and Usage by Households and Individuals (database), https://stats.oecd.org/. Figure 5.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 16-24 25-55 55-74 %ofinternetusers Age group 2008 2017
  14. 14. 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 Turkey Greece Chile Lithuania Israel United States Poland Russian Federation Ireland Slovak Republic England (UK) Northern Ireland (UK) Japan OECD average Slovenia Estonia Denmark Austria Australia Canada New Zealand Germany Czech Republic Norway Flanders (Belgium) Netherlands Sweden Finland Korea Singapore Level 2 Level 3 Level 2 Level 3 Skills to manage complex digital information Young adults (16-24 year-olds) Older adults (55-65 year-olds)
  15. 15. Education won the race with technology throughout history, but there is no automaticity it will do so in the future Inspired by “The race between te chnology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard) Industrial revolution Digital revolution Social pain Universal public schooling Technology Education Prosperity Social pain Prosperity The future will be about pairing the artificial intelligence of computers with the cognitive, social and emotional skills and values of humans
  16. 16. The growth in AI technologies 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Numberofpatents Number of patents in artificial intelligence technologies, 1991-2015 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2017: The digital transformation, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264268821-en. Figure 1.10
  17. 17. Living longer, living better 70 is the new 60 Total gains in life expectancy at birth, OECD countries, 2000-2016 Source: WHO (2018), Global Health Observatory (database), http://www.who.int/gho/en/. Figure 4.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Estonia Korea Turkey Ireland Slovenia Latvia Portugal CzechRepublic SlovakRepublic Denmark Hungary Poland Israel Luxembourg France OECDaverage Norway Spain Finland Austria Canada Switzerland UnitedKingdom NewZealand Netherlands Australia Belgium Italy Lithuania Germany Greece Japan Iceland Sweden Chile Mexico UnitedStates Years Gains in healthy life expectancy Additional gains in life expectancy
  18. 18. Participation in lifelong education and training by literacy level (Adults aged 25-65 years) 0 20 40 60 80 100 High literacy skills (4/5) Low literacy skills (1)%
  19. 19. Routine cognitive skills Complex ways of thinking, complex ways of doing, collective capacity Some students learn at high levels (sorting) All students need to learn at high levels Student inclusion Curriculum, instruction and assessment Standardisation and compliance High-level professional knowledge workers Teacher education ‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegial Work organisation Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholders Accountability Industrial systems World class systems When fast gets really fast, being slow to adapt makes education really slow
  20. 20. Andreas Schleicher Director for Education and Skills Find out more about our work at www.oecd.org –All publications –The complete micro-level database Email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org Twitter: SchleicherOECD Wechat: AndreasSchleicher

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