Measuring resilience—Understanding trends in land cover changes and their potential impacts on pastoral communities
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Measuring resilience—Understanding trends in land cover changes and their potential impacts on pastoral communities

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Presented by Mohammed Y Said, Leah Ng'ang'a, Gert Nyberg, Shem Kifugo, Ewa Wredle, Anna Hallmén, Regina Waiganjo, Peter Mwangi, Jan de Leeuw and Polly Ericksen at the IFPRI 2020 Policy Consultation ...

Presented by Mohammed Y Said, Leah Ng'ang'a, Gert Nyberg, Shem Kifugo, Ewa Wredle, Anna Hallmén, Regina Waiganjo, Peter Mwangi, Jan de Leeuw and Polly Ericksen at the IFPRI 2020 Policy Consultation and Conference, Side Event on Measuring and Evaluating Resilience in Drylands of East Africa, Addis Ababa, 15-17 May 2014


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Measuring resilience—Understanding trends in land cover changes and their potential impacts on pastoral communities Measuring resilience—Understanding trends in land cover changes and their potential impacts on pastoral communities Presentation Transcript

  • Mohammed Y Said, Leah Ng'ang'a, Gert Nyberg, Shem Kifugo, Ewa Wredle, Anna Hallmén, Regina Waiganjo, Peter Mwangi, Jan de Leeuw and Polly Ericksen Measuring resilience—Understanding trends in land cover changes and their potential impacts on pastoral communities IFPRI 2020 Policy Consultation and Conference, Side Event on Measuring and Evaluating Resilience in Drylands of East Africa, Addis Ababa, 15-17 May 2014
  • Resilience framework Source: Pasteur, K. 2012. From Vulnerability to Resilience A framework for analysis and action to build community resilience “ … measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships between populations or state variables (Holling, 173) Future uncertainty (Long term trends, climate change) Adaptive capacity • Improving understanding of trends and local impacts • Ensuring access to relevant and timely information • Building confidence and flexibility to learn and experiment Governance Enabling environment • Decentralized and participatory decision making • Strengthening links between local district and national levels • Promoting integrated approaches to livelihoods, disaster and climate change • Addressing underlying systematic issues Resilience • Ability to manage risk • Ability to adapt to change • Ability to secure sufficient food Hazards and stresses Disaster preparedness • Building capacity to analyse hazards and stresses • Improving hazard prevention and protection • Increase early warning and awareness • Establishing contingency and emergency planning Livelihoods Diversity and security • Strengthening community organization and voice • Supporting access to, and sustainable management of productive assets • Promoting access to technologies • Improving access to markets and employment • Ensuring secure living conditions
  • Projected population and water use Source: ACC 2014 Natural Capital Atlas In 1960 Kenya population was less than 10 million by 2009 the had increased to 40 million. This population will double to 80 million by 2050 Growing human population and rise per capita use of resources is depleting water supply in Kenya. High conservation and management will be needed to deal with water shortages now and in the future.
  • Study sites – agro ecological potential Source: KNBS, KSS, ILRI 1 32 6 54 7 8 1 = West Pokot; 2 = Elgeyo Marakwet; 3 = Baringo; 4 = Nyandarua; 5: Nyeri 6 = Narok; 7 Machakos; 8 = Kwale Human Population 1962 2009
  • Causes of forest cover changes Underlying cause Source: Geist & Lambin 2002
  • Population dynamics y = 0.0018x - 0.3671 R² = 0.8088 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 0 500 1000 1500 2000 log(Populationdensity) Rainfall (mm) 1962 2009 Linear (1962) Linear (2009) 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Population Baringo Elgeyo-Marakwet Kwale Machakos Narok Nyandarua Nyeri West Pokot Source: Said et al. (in prep)
  • Monitoring Vegetation condition using satellite 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Ndvi Years Baringo Elgeyo-Marakwet Kwale Machakos Narok Nyandarua Nyeri West Pokot Source: Said et al. (in prep) Trends in NDVI for the period 1982 -2008. A 3 year smoothing interval used to clearly show the trends
  • Framework - Relationship between population growth and vegetation Influence of population growth on vegetation cover can be considered as two effects – consuming constructive effect and constructive effect. C = Consuming Destruction Effect D = Planting Construction Effect Population density Vegetationcover C>DD>C Population density Vegetationcover D>C C>D Population density Vegetationcover C>D D>C Source: Li et al. 2013, Modified
  • Land cover changes Mau - Narok y = -7E-08x + 0.5383 R² = 0.4168 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 200000 400000 600000 800000 NDVI Population Source: Said et al. (in prep), Leah (in prep), Hansen et al. 2013) 2001 2012 Change analysis 2001 -12
  • Impacts on livelihood and environment – southern Kenya rangelands 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 Jan-77 Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Populationsize Kajiado Shoats Cattle Wildliffe 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 Jan-77 Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Populationsize Narok Shoats Cattle Wildlife Ogutu, Said, Kifugo in press
  • y = 4E-12x2 - 4E-06x + 1.9121 R² = 0.3043 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 500000 550000 600000 650000 700000 NDVI Population Land cover Mt Kenya - Nyeri Source: Said et al. (in prep) 2001 2012 Change analysis 2001 -12
  • Framework - drylands
  • 1983 2013 Source: Anna Hallmén, MSc Thesis 2014 Photos: Vi Image showing changes in land cover – in 2013 the red tone colour indicates increase in tree cover Efforts to increase tree cover started in the early 1980s by Vi Sweden in West Pokot. It started in schools and churches and later extended to communal and private lands. Land cover changes in West Pokot 1983 -2013
  • Impacts of enclosures on vegetation Chepareria y = 1E-07x + 0.4672 R² = 0.6804 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 NDVI Population 81% 51% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% enclosure open Totalplantcover 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 closed open Foragebiomass(g/m2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 closed openSpeciesrichness Source: Google maps Source: Regina Waiganjo, MSc Thesis 2014; Said et al. (in prep) Enclosures had more plant cover, biomass was four folds and species richness higher than the open grazing areas
  • Next steps Socio - ecological changes • What are the land cover dynamics and trajectories in the drylands of EA? • What correlation can be established between climatic indicators and vegetation indexes? • What type land health can we detect • Potential for PES? Livelihood challenges and opportunities • Does the number of livestock, stocking rate and composition differ between pastoralists using enclosures compared with traditional nomadic pastoralists? • Have a more sedentary lifestyle changed the roles in the family and the women’s economic empowerment? • What are the trades-offs between sedentary and non-sedentary population?
  • Acknowledgement Projects or programs: CRP 1.1, BMZ (Developing the livelihood income diversification potential of carbon sequestration in African drylands), Triple L (Students and Scientists) Data: Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Kenya Agriculture Research Institute - Kenya Soils Surveys (KSS), Vi West Pokot, NOAA, and Google.