The Changing Face of Houston:
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 32 Years of Surve...
1900-1982

Houston was
basically a “one-horse”
industrial town focused

2

on refining
hydrocarbons into
gasoline and
petr...
“The ideological thrust in
Houston in the twentieth
century has been

anti-government,
anti-regulation,
anti-planning,
ant...
The 32nd Houston Area Survey (1982-2013)
More than three decades of
systematic interviews with

representative samples of
...
Percent increase in before-tax income

Two contrasting
economic eras

110%

116%

111%

114%

100%

99%
86%

63%
50%
43%

...
The new economy (2013)

“For a person to be
successful in today’s
world, is it necessary
to get an education
beyond high s...
Positive perceptions of
job opportunities in the
Houston area (1982-2013)
100%

Percent rating job opportunities as “excel...
The official unemployment
rates in Harris County
(1982-2013)
11.0
10.0

9.8

10.1
8.6

9.0
8.0

7.8

8.4
7.3

6.8

7.0

6....
Arts, culture, sports

Air and water quality
Green spaces,
Bayous
Transportation trees
Urban centers

Hiking, boating,
bir...
Life in the
Houston area
compared to
other U.S.
metro areas
(2005-2013)

“Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the...
The City of Houston
2.1 million
600 sq. mi.

Baltimore
0.6 million
81 sq. mi.

Chicago
2.7 million
228 sq. mi.

Philadelph...
The 10-county Houston
metropolitan region
5.9 million
10,062 sq. mi.

Massachusetts
6.6 million
10,550 sq. mi.
12

Source:...
Housing preferences
(2008-2012)
"If you could choose where to live in the Houston area,
which would you prefer? "
A single...
1978

© of MacLean
QualityAlex Place
2011

© of MacLean
QualityAlex Place
Major U.S. immigrant cities

Boston
San Francisco

Chicago

New York City
Washington D.C.

Los Angeles

San Diego

Dallas
...
The demographic
transformations of
Harris County

Population in Millions

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
7.7%
6.7%

3

4...
The demographic changes
in Fort Bend County and
Montgomery County
Fort Bend County
600,000

Montgomery County

1990 2000 2...
Harris County total population

Anglo majority
Black majority

Latino majority
No majority
20

1980

Color represents demo...
Harris County total population

Anglo majority
Black majority

Latino majority
No majority
21

1990

Color represents demo...
Harris County total population

Anglo majority
Black majority

Latino majority
No majority
22

2000

Color represents demo...
Harris County total population

Anglo majority
Black majority

Latino majority
No majority
23

2010

Color represents demo...
Percent of the population
by age group and ethnicity
in Harris County in 2010
All others
79%

Non-Hispanic
Whites
57%

43%...
Percent of the population
by age group and ethnicity
in the state of Texas in 2010
Non-Hispanic
Whites
68%

All others
68%...
Percent of the population by
age group and ethnicity in the
United States in 2010
Non-Hispanic
Whites
80%

All Others
51%
...
Percent of the population by
age group and ethnicity in the
United States in 2050

All Others

Non-Hispanic
Whites

63%

5...
The shift in attitudes toward
immigrants during the past
four years (2009-2013)
Percent of respondents agreeing
90%

83%

...
Inter-ethnic romantic relationships by age
among Anglos (2007 and 2011 combined)

Anglo respondents who report having been...
Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by age

Ethnic
attitudes by
age among
Anglos
(2007–2013
combined)

The increasing e...
Today’s pro-growth agenda
Houston will need to nurture to
The Houston region will need a far
Houston will need to develop ...
kinder.rice.edu
kinder@rice.edu
713-348-4132

/InstituteForUrbanResearch
@RiceKinderInst

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Dr. Klineberg on the Changing Houston Demographics
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Dr. Klineberg on the Changing Houston Demographics

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  • Non-anglo populations primarily in younger agesLargest proportion of anglos in oldest ages
  • Non-anglo populations primarily in younger agesLargest proportion of anglos in oldest ages
  • Non-anglo populations primarily in younger agesLargest proportion of anglos in oldest ages
  • By 2040, all but oldest ages will be majority non-AngloIn fact, Half of the population will be non-Anglo by 2042 and ½ of Children will be non-Anglo by 2023!
  • Dr. Klineberg on the Changing Houston Demographics

    1. 1. The Changing Face of Houston: Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 32 Years of Surveys Dr. Stephen Klineberg H.A.R. H-Town Day 2013 17 October 2013
    2. 2. 1900-1982 Houston was basically a “one-horse” industrial town focused 2 on refining hydrocarbons into gasoline and petrochemicals and servicing the oil and gas industry.
    3. 3. “The ideological thrust in Houston in the twentieth century has been anti-government, anti-regulation, anti-planning, anti-taxes, anti-anything that seemed to represent, in fact or fantasy, an expansion of the public sector or a limitation on the economic prerogatives and activities of the city’s business community.” (Robert Fisher 1990) 3
    4. 4. The 32nd Houston Area Survey (1982-2013) More than three decades of systematic interviews with representative samples of Harris County residents, focused on three central issues: 4
    5. 5. Percent increase in before-tax income Two contrasting economic eras 110% 116% 111% 114% 100% 99% 86% 63% 50% 43% The 30 years after World War II were a period of broad-based prosperity. The past 30 years have been marked by growing concentrations of wealth. -3% -10% 2% 5% 15% Bottom 20% Second 20% Middle 20% Fourth 20% The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979) The past 30 years (1979-2011) 5 Top 20% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements. Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth And The Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Top 5%
    6. 6. The new economy (2013) “For a person to be successful in today’s world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school?” 73% The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared. 25% “Or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma?” 2% Don’t know/Can’t say 6 Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The New Economy
    7. 7. Positive perceptions of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982-2013) 100% Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good” 71% of Houstonians in 1982 66% 68% gave positive ratings to job opportunities in Houston. 50% 43% 58% 58% 42% 48% 41% 36% 35% 25% 11% 0% 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 7 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The New Economy
    8. 8. The official unemployment rates in Harris County (1982-2013) 11.0 10.0 9.8 10.1 8.6 9.0 8.0 7.8 8.4 7.3 6.8 7.0 6.5 6.8 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 3.0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 8 Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The New Economy
    9. 9. Arts, culture, sports Air and water quality Green spaces, Bayous Transportation trees Urban centers Hiking, boating, birding
    10. 10. Life in the Houston area compared to other U.S. metro areas (2005-2013) “Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, is Houston a better or worse place to live?” 100% 78% 85% 86% 89% 90% “Much/slightly better” 50% 17% 8% 7% 6% “Much/slightly worse” 0% 05 10 9% Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2005-2013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 07 09 11 13
    11. 11. The City of Houston 2.1 million 600 sq. mi. Baltimore 0.6 million 81 sq. mi. Chicago 2.7 million 228 sq. mi. Philadelphia 1.5 million 134 sq. mi. Detroit 0.7 million 139 sq. mi. 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Quality of Place
    12. 12. The 10-county Houston metropolitan region 5.9 million 10,062 sq. mi. Massachusetts 6.6 million 10,550 sq. mi. 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research New Jersey 8.8 million 8,729 sq. mi. Quality of Place
    13. 13. Housing preferences (2008-2012) "If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer? " A single-family home with a big yard, where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go. 2010 2008 2012 A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces. 58% 59% 47% 39% 36% 51% Don’t know/Can’t say 13 Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Quality of Place
    14. 14. 1978 © of MacLean QualityAlex Place
    15. 15. 2011 © of MacLean QualityAlex Place
    16. 16. Major U.S. immigrant cities Boston San Francisco Chicago New York City Washington D.C. Los Angeles San Diego Dallas Atlanta Miami Houston 17 Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The Demographic Revolution
    17. 17. The demographic transformations of Harris County Population in Millions 4 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7.7% 6.7% 3 4.1% 15.5% 2.1% 15.5% 2 0.8% 9.9% 0.3% 1 6.0% Asians 20.1% 19.8% Latinos Blacks Asians 19.7% Latinos Blacks Asians 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1% Asians Latinos 32.9% Blacks 18.2% Asians Asians Latinos 40.8% Latinos Blacks 18.4% Blacks Anglos 0 73.9% 1,243,258 18 Anglos 69.2% 1,741,912 Anglos 62.7% 2,409,547 Anglos 54.0% 2,818,199 Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Anglos 42.1% 3,400,578 33.0% Anglos 4,092,459 The Demographic Revolution
    18. 18. The demographic changes in Fort Bend County and Montgomery County Fort Bend County 600,000 Montgomery County 1990 2000 2010 199020002010 19.0% Asians 4.0% 15.5 13.1% 300,000 6.5% 21.1% 19.5% Asians 19.6% Latinos Blacks 20.3% 53.8% 0 225,421 19 Anglos 46.2% 354,452 23.7% Latinos Asians Latinos 21.1% Blacks Blacks 4.1% 2.5% 12.6% 3.4% 7.3% 4.2% Anglos 36.2% Anglos 585,375 Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 1.0% 87.5% 182,201 Asians Latinos Blacks Anglos 81.4% 293,768 20.8% Asians Latinos Blacks Anglos 71.2% 455,746 The Demographic Revolution
    19. 19. Harris County total population Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 20 1980 Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The Demographic Revolution
    20. 20. Harris County total population Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 21 1990 Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The Demographic Revolution
    21. 21. Harris County total population Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 22 2000 Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The Demographic Revolution
    22. 22. Harris County total population Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 23 2010 Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The Demographic Revolution
    23. 23. Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in Harris County in 2010 All others 79% Non-Hispanic Whites 57% 43% 21% 0-4 24 5-9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 65 + The Demographic Revolution
    24. 24. Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the state of Texas in 2010 Non-Hispanic Whites 68% All others 68% 32% 32% 0-4 25 5-9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 65 + The Demographic Revolution
    25. 25. Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2010 Non-Hispanic Whites 80% All Others 51% 49% 20% 0-4 26 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ The Demographic Revolution
    26. 26. Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2050 All Others Non-Hispanic Whites 63% 59% 42% 37% 0-4 27 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ The Demographic Revolution
    27. 27. The shift in attitudes toward immigrants during the past four years (2009-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 90% 83% 68% 55% 64% 66% 71% 74% 61% 55% 51% For: granting a path to legal citizenship. Admit about the same or more legal immigrants. 47% The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture. 0% 09 28 11 13 09 10 Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 11 12 13 09 11 The Demographic Revolution 13
    28. 28. Inter-ethnic romantic relationships by age among Anglos (2007 and 2011 combined) Anglo respondents who report having been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo. 57% 49% 42% 25% 10% 18-29 29 61% 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Source: 2007 and 2011 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research The Demographic Revolution
    29. 29. Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by age Ethnic attitudes by age among Anglos (2007–2013 combined) The increasing ethnic diversity brought about by immigration is a “good thing,” rather than a “bad thing.” 71% 18-29 61% 30-44 45-59 57% 48% 60+ 18-29 Grant illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record. 74% 30-44 65% 45-59 60% 60+ 55% 18-29 The increasing immigration into the U.S. today mostly “strengthens,” rather than “threatens,” American culture. 30-44 43% 45-59 42% 60+ 30 Source: 2007-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 68% 35% The Demographic Revolution
    30. 30. Today’s pro-growth agenda Houston will need to nurture to The Houston region will need a far Houston will need to develop into a more educated appealing urban grow into a moreand technicallytruly successful multiethnic trained workforce, and invest in destination, while accommodating society, with equality of opportunity the research centers that will fuel an expected 3.5 million additional for all communities, where all are the engines of the new economy. residents during the next 20 years. encour-aged to participate as full partners in shaping the region’s future. The Demographic Revolution
    31. 31. kinder.rice.edu kinder@rice.edu 713-348-4132 /InstituteForUrbanResearch @RiceKinderInst Designed by The Fifth Business
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