Immigration Research: Numbers and Findings

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by D'Vera Cohn, senior writer for the Pew Research Center

Special for the 2013 Specialized Reporting Institute on Immigration Reform.

http://immigrationreportingworkshop2013.borderzine.com/

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Immigration Research: Numbers and Findings

  1. 1. Immigration Research: Numbers and Findings D’Vera Cohn Demographics, Trends, Attitudes Senior writer, Pew Research Center Immigration from the Border to the Heartland The McCormick Foundation and Borderzine.com Sept. 27, 2013
  2. 2. Sept. 27, 2013 2www.pewresearch.org Overview of Presentation • Unauthorized immigration: Trends and attitudes • U.S. immigrants: Selected research • Public Opinion: U.S. population overall and immigrants themselves • Resources
  3. 3. Unauthorized Immigration
  4. 4. 9/27/2013 4www.pewresearch.org Unauthorized Population Decline Stalls, May Have Reversed Estimates of the U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population, 1990-2012 In millions 3.5 5.7 6.8 7.9 9.4 10.1 11.1 12.2 11.3 11.5 11.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Notes: Shading surrounding line indicates low and high points of the estimated 90% confidence interval. White data markers indicate the change from the previous year is statistically significant (for 1995, change is significant from 1990). Data labels are for 1990, odd years from 1995-2011 and 2012. Source: Table 1, derived from Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey for 1995-2004, 2012 and to the American Community Survey for 2005-2011. Estimates for 1990 from Warren and Warren (2013). See Methodology.
  5. 5. 9/27/2013 5www.pewresearch.org Texas Trend Differs from U.S.: No Decrease Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, 1990-2012 in millions 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 0 1 2 3 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Notes: Shading surrounding line indicates low and high points of the estimated 90% confidence interval. White data markers indicate the change from the previous year is statistically significant (for 1995, change is significant from 1990). Data labels are for 1990, odd years from 1995-2011 and 2012. Source: Table A1, derived from Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey for 1995-2004, 2012 and to the American Community Survey for 2005-2011. Estimates for 1990 from Warren and Warren (2013). See Methodology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
  6. 6. 9/27/2013 6www.pewresearch.org Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico Falls Sharply Estimates of the U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population from Mexico, 1990-2012 in millions 1.4 2.9 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.6 6.3 6.9 6.4 6.2 6.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Notes: Shading surrounding line indicates low and high points of the estimated 90% confidence interval. White data markers indicate the change from the previous year is statistically significant (for 1995, change is significant from 1990). Data labels are for 1990, odd years from 1995-2011 and 2012. Source: Table A2, derived from Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey for 1995-2004, 2012 and to the American Community Survey for 2005-2011. Estimates for 1990 from Warren and Warren (2013). See Methodology. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
  7. 7. 9/27/2013 www.pewresearch.org 1.5 1.0 2.1 4.5 2000 2005 2010 U.S.-born children Unauthorized immigrant children Children with at Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent Source: Pew Research Center Hispanic Trends Project, 2011
  8. 8. 9/27/2013 8www.pewresearch.org Should Unauthorized Immigrants Be Allowed to Stay, or Not?
  9. 9. 9/27/2013 www.pewresearch.org % saying… Obama’s Program for Unauthorized Immigrant Childhood Arrivals 33 9 13 5 12 63 89 85 93 86 Disapprove Approve Hispanics by nativity U.S. Registered voters Native born Foreign born General population All Hispanics Source: 2012 National Survey of Latinos
  10. 10. 9/27/2013 10www.pewresearch.org % of Latinos saying… Many Know Someone Who Has or Will Apply for DACA 31 24 37 28 37 48 26 Nativity Among the foreign born All Latinos Registered voters Native born Foreign born U.S. citizen Legal resident Not a U.S. citizen or a legal resident 2012 National Survey of Latinos
  11. 11. U.S. Immigration Trends
  12. 12. 9/27/2013 12www.pewresearch.org Among New Immigrants, Asians Overtake Hispanics (% of immigrants, by year of arrival, 2000-2010) Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the Decennial Census and American Community Surveys (ACS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
  13. 13. 9/27/2013 13www.pewresearch.org (in millions) Mexican-Born Population in the U.S., 1850-2011 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 20102011 1970 .8 2009 12.6 2011 12.0 Source: Pew Research Center Hispanic Trends Project
  14. 14. 9/27/2013 www.pewresearch.org Hispanic Births Exceed Immigrants from 2000 Among Hispanics, Percent Foreign-Born Has PEAKED 3.1 9.0 11.3 13.9 16.5 19.3 5.6 7.3 10.3 7.0 4.4 8.1 8.4 9.3 7.7 3.1 14% 18% 28% 35% 40% 38% 36% 33% 40% 40% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s Hispanic Births (millions) Hispanic Immigrants (millions) % Foreign-Born for Hispanics Source: Pew Research Center Hispanic Trends Project Estimates and Projections, 2008
  15. 15. 15www.pewresearch.org Nativity of U.S. Adults, 2010 Source: 2010 American Community Survey 84 26 68 31 24 22 16 13 16 74 32 69 76 78 84 87 U.S. Population, 18+ U.S. Asians, 18+ Japanese Filipino Chinese Korean Vietnamese Indian Native born Foreign born U.S. Asian groups, 18 and older 9/27/2013
  16. 16. 9/27/2013 16www.pewresearch.org Comparing Asian-American Immigrants and U.S.-Born Adults
  17. 17. 9/27/2013 17www.pewresearch.org Foreign-born Women Led Recent Decline in Birth Rates Births per 1,000 women ages 15-44 112.8 103.0 87.8 66.5 61.5 58.9 71.2 68.6 64.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 Foreign born U.S. born All women
  18. 18. 9/27/2013 www.pewresearch.org 18
  19. 19. 9/27/2013 19www.pewresearch.org % Primary Language Use among Latinos 38 61 8 1 38 33 53 29 24 6 40 69 All Hispanics First Second Third and higher Spanish dominant Bilingual English dominant Hispanics by generation Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos
  20. 20. Public Opinion on Immigration
  21. 21. 9/27/2013 www.pewresearch.org % among adults Immigrants Today— Strength or Burden? 52 41 74 38 48 19 Black White Hispanic Strengthen country w/ hard work and talents Are a burden because they take jobs, housing & health care Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press national survey, March 13-17, 2013
  22. 22. Naturalization Rates Among Eligible Immigrants Source: Pew Research Center Hispanic Trends Project tabulations of augmented March supplements to the CPS 48 52 59 58 60 61 20 31 34 30 35 36 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Mexican-born All immigrants
  23. 23. What Is the Main Reason You Decided To Naturalize? Source: Pew Research Center Hispanic Trends Project 2012 National Survey of Latinos 18 16 15 12 6 Civil and Legal Rights Benefits or Opportunities Family reasons U.S. as home American identity (% of Latino naturalized citizens who say… )
  24. 24. What Is the Main Reason You Have Not Yet Naturalized? 26 26 18 13 4 Language and other personal barriers Have not tried yet or not interested Financial and administrative barriers Not eligible yet or waiting for green card Currently applying or will do it soon Source: Pew Research Center Hispanic Trends Project 2012 National Survey of Latinos (% of Latino LPRs who say… )
  25. 25. U.S. Compared to Ancestors’ Country of Origin in Regard to… Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos (%) 87 72 69 44 33 2 10 7 21 39 Treatment of the poor The moral values of society The strength of family ties The opportunity to get ahead The conditions for raising children SameBetter in the U.S. Better where you/your parents 10 17 21 32 26
  26. 26. Main Reason for Immigrating to the U.S. Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos (% among foreign born/those born in Puerto Rico) 55 24 9 5 7 Economic opportunities Family reasons Educational opportunities Conflict/persecution in your home country Other
  27. 27. If You Could Do It Again, Would You … Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos (% among foreign born/those born in Puerto Rico) 79 58 80 82 83 15 33 17 9 12 4 3 3 7 2 All Hispanic immigrants 6-10 years 11-20 years More than 20 years Come to the United States/Leave Puerto Rico for the United States Stay in (the country where you were born/Puerto Rico) Move to a different country Years in U.S. among Hispanic Immigrants Less than 1 year to 5 years
  28. 28. 9/27/2013 28www.pewresearch.org For Most Asians, U.S. Offers a Better Life % saying … 2012 Asian-American Survey. Q54a-g. Responses of "Don't know/Refused” not shown. 5 3 9 13 7 28 56 73 69 64 62 52 34 14 Better in country of origin Better in U.S. About the same 18 23 21 20 38 32 26 Strength of family ties Opportunity to get ahead Freedom to express political views Treatment of the poor Conditions for raising children Freedom to practice religion Moral values of society
  29. 29. Brookings Institution: Data about immigration in metropolitan areas http://www.brookings.edu/research/topics/immigration Kids Count (Annie E. Casey Foundation) data on children in immigrant families: http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data#USA/2/2/3,4,5,6 Migration Policy Institute: Wide range of reports about U.S. (and international) immigration. U.S. immigration link: http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/usimmigration.php Immigration Data Matters, a 2008 publication from MPI and the Population Reference Bureau that’s still a useful compilation of data sources on U.S. and international immigration: Scroll to bottom of page for a link: http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/ 9/27/2013 29www.pewresearch.org Other Resources for Immigration Research
  30. 30. 9/27/2013 www.pewresearch.org 30 D’Vera Cohn Senior writer dcohn@pewresearch.org 202-419-4303

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