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IDRC Davos 2012

IDRC Davos 2012
Programme & Short Abstracts of the IDRC conference in Davos 2012

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Idrc davos 2012-programme_and_shortabstracts Idrc davos 2012-programme_and_shortabstracts Document Transcript

  • 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC DAVOS 2012 "Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World Pathways to a Resilient Society" Programme & Short Abstracts 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • SPONSORS Platinum Sponsors Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors Risk management solution O ial carrier GRF Davos Foundation is grateful for t Municipality of Davos nancial commitment and continuous support of: Canton of Grisons
  • The CHairman’s welcome The Chairman’s welcome “FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION TOGETHER WE MAKE THINGS HAPPEN” I and my staff would like to welcome you to Davos for the 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012, and I would sincerely like to thank you for joining this global gathering. IDRC Davos 2012 builds on the success of its preceding conferences in 2006, 2008 and 2010, and again features a broad range of topics. It brings different actors together and strengthens partnerships. With a large number of government officials, experts and practitioners, high-level representatives of IGOs, the UN, NGOs, the private sector, scientific and academic institutions, the media and other eminent people from 100 countries, the conference provides a valuable forum for dialogue and a strategic platform for the world´s risk and disaster management community. This year, the focus of IDRC will be Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society. With a vital mix of topics and formats, including plenary and parallel sessions, workshops, training courses, exhibitions and networking events, the conference will foster the exchange of information and viewpoints between scientists, practitioners and policy makers. Walter J. Ammann IDRC Davos 2012 Chairman The Hyogo Framework for Action will end in 2015. Three years before this happens, IDRC Davos 2012 aims to take the implementation of the HFA a further step forward and to draw conclusions to improve the design of international risk management standards. In recent years, the scope and complexity of risks and disasters have grown. IDRC Davos 2012 will again promote an integrative perspective and foster a multidisciplinary approach that addresses the many risks that threaten society, risks that may be well beyond any single entity’s capacity to control, and that may adversely affect a great variety of stakeholders across different geographic, administrative and commercial boundaries. The main elements of success are multi-disciplinary and trans-sectorial initiatives, as well as public-private partnerships in risk reduction and disaster management. The year 2011 was profoundly marked by tragic events, such as the devastating floods in Thailand, a long-lasting drought in East Africa and a terrible earthquake with cascading impacts in Japan. Moreover, the year 2012 started with a number of tragic earthquakes, which reminds us again and again of how vulnerable our communities are, how limited we are in our ability to provide help, and how difficult it is to overcome such disasters. In June 2012, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development Rio+20 was held in Brazil. It reconfirmed the world’s commitment to eradicate poverty, to accelerate progress towards the achievement of the MDGs and to take risk reduction and disaster management into account. IDRC Davos 2012 will endeavour to add momentum to this movement by formulating a series of direct, pertinent and practical solutions that address urgent and pressing issues in various key areas of risk reduction and disaster management. The outcomes of the conference will be documented in a report (see page 70). Contributions by all participants are highly welcome and should give answers to these three main questions: • What are the dominant and developing trends in risks and disasters in the modern world? • What sort of international instruments should be developed after the Hyogo Framework for Action? • What are the principal issues for the future in disaster risk reduction and resilience, and how should they be tackled? We anticipate a successful and worthwhile conference. Our thanks go to the IDRC Davos 2012 sponsors, to the authors of all the papers and posters to be presented, to the highlevel speakers and panellists, to the special session and workshop organizers; and lastly to the patrons, the scientific and technical committee, the reviewers, and the collaborating institutions for their leadership, guidance, support and hard work. Davos, August 2012 Dr. Walter J. Ammann Chairman IDRC Davos 2012 1
  • Conference Patrons Patronage Institutions Foreword by Ms Margareta Wahlström Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction Patronage Institutions The convergence of environmental, technical and socioeconomic risks is a formidable challenge to sustainable development. It is a generational issue that requires collective efforts, thinking and planning to increase people’s resilience. Moreover, it requires addressing the root causes of risk and strengthening the way that risk is managed. This 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC Davos 2012) - Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society, offers a prime opportunity to comprehensively and collectively debate and exchange knowledge as well as experience about the risks confronting the world; risks that exist because of inappropriate environmental and natural resource management, poor governance, inequitable socio-economic development, and poor urban and land use planning. United Nations Environment Programme The interconnected nature of risks calls for a multifaceted approach that combines the best expertise, acumen, wisdom and instincts to manage those risks and build and strengthen the resilience of communities. This is a key premise of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015). IDRC Davos 2012 is a multidisciplinary forum where ideas and collaborations can be forged for a resilient future. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Foreword by Ms Irina Bokova Director-General of UNESCO Disaster resilience is a human development priority. We must recognize today the tight link between safety and disaster risk reduction and build on this as a central component of our work for overall sustainable development. This calls for deeper cooperation in assessing risks and mitigating their consequences. The Outcome Document of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development -Rio+20 – highlights the need for a sharper focus on disaster risk reduction and building resilience to disasters. It recognizes also the importance of comprehensive hazard and risk assessments. International Labour Organisation The goal of the 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference -- IDRC Davos 2012 -- is to promote comprehensive and integrative approaches to disaster risk management. This resonates closely with UNESCO’s work to take forward disaster mitigation and preparedness. It also echoes UNESCO’s efforts to raise awareness and to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and experience among all relevant actors. For all these reasons, UNESCO is pleased to be associated with IDRC Davos 2012. I see this as a further step in the cooperation launched in June 2011 between UNESCO and the Global Risk Forum (GRF) Davos. I wish every success to the Conference and look forward to its conclusions. 2 3
  • IDRC Davos 2012 Conference organisation Contents Conference chair Contents Walter J. Ammann, President and CEO, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Conference Patrons Margareta Wahlström, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva Irina Bakova, Director General, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Paris GRF DAvos Organizing committee Walter J. Ammann, Chairman David Alexander, Chief Senior Scientist Fabian Ammann, IT Judith Ammann, Additional Support Sieglinde Moos, Customer Relations Jill Portmann, Administration and Communication Andreas Rechkemmer, Chief Senior Science and Policy Adviser Marco Bruderer, Additional Support Andrea Maria Roth, Project Assistant Madeleine Colbert, Project Officer Lyn Shepard, Conference Journalist Marco Ferrari, Senior Consultant Marc Stal, Project Officer Nikola Gütermann, Project Assistant Manuela Stiffler, Project Assistant Stéphanie Jaquet, Project Assistant Photographer Nikolaos Kapelis, Switzerland Programme Layout Stéphanie Jaquet, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Videography by SO emotion, Chur, Switzerland Stephan Mark Reto Janesch Stefan Jäger Stefanie Roth Nico Troianiello 1 The Chairman’s welcome 2 Foreword by Ms Margareta Wahlström 2 Foreword by Ms Irina Bokova 3 Patronage Institutions 4 Conference chair 4 Conference Patrons 4 GRF DAvos Organizing committee 4 Photographer 4 Programme Layout 4 Videography 5 Contents 6 IDRC davos 2012 scientific and technical advisory committee 9 Co-hosting institutions 9 Collaborating institutions 12 Plenary speakers 14 List of Exhibitors 17 GRF Davos Business Continuity IDRC Post-Conference 18 Street event 19 Agenda at a glance 25 Red Chair 26 Congress maps 30 Detailed programme 58 Poster presentations 64 Special events 66 Job Fair 66 Conference proceedings 67 Tourism information and Leisure activities 69 Media Partners 70 How YOU can contribute to the IDRC Davos 2012 Outcomes Report 72 General information and emergency 73 Proceedings of the International Disaster and Risk Conference ip unt on a tr 25 % disco press. rnina Ex on the Be From glaciers to palms 4 Chur / Davos / St. Moritz — Tirano — Lugano. The line followed by the Bernina Express is a masterpiece of engineering skills. It runs from the icy heights of the Alps, at over 2200 metres above sea level, down into warmer, sunnier lands at an altitude of just 400 metres. This truly impressive railway, with its world-famous viaducts and spectacular curves, blends harmoniously into its grandiose mountain setting – which is why it has been awarded its UNESCO World Heritage accolade! Information / Reservations / Sales: At any manned RhB railway station or by contacting Railservice, Tel +41 (0)81 288 65 65, railservice@rhb.ch, www.rhb.ch/ticketshop www.berninaexpress.ch 5
  • idrc davos 2012 scientific and technical advisory Committee IDRC davos 2012 scientific and technical advisory committee idrc davos 2012 scientific and technical advisory committee Carlo Jäger, Professor for Economy, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Potsdam, Germany Allia Khedidja, Professor and Director, Université des Sciences et de la Technologie Houari USTHB, Algiers, Algeria Wolfgang Kröger, Executive Director, ETH Risk Center, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Edris Alam, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladesh Seda Kundak, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Architecture, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey Tahmeed M. Al-Hussaini, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh Alejandro Linayo Rivero, President, Disaster Risk Management Research Centre, Merida, Venezuela Ali Asgary, Associate Professor and Graduate Program Director, MADEM, Disaster and Emergency Management Program, York University, Toronto, Canada Uwe Lübken, Project Director “Disaster Migration in Historical Perspective,” Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society (RCC), Munich, Germany Thomas R. Loster, Chairman, Munich Re Foundation, Munich, Germany Christoph Aubrecht, Research Associate, Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Foresight & Policy Development Departement, Vienna, Austria Nikolay A. Makhutov, Member Correspondent, Russian Academy of Sciences and Chief Scientific Researcher, Institute of Machine Science, Russian Academy of Sciences; Head of the Russian Academy of Sciences Working Group “Risk and Safety”, Russia Samira Barghouti, Dean of Research & Cooperation, University for Arabs, Jerusalem-Palestine James Martin, Professor of Civil Engineering, Virginia Tech (VT), USA Bockline Omedo Bebe, Associate Professor of Livestock Production, Faculty of Agriculture, Egerton University, Kenya Djillali Benouar, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediene, Bab Ezzouar, Algeria Adolfo Mascarenhas, Local and Indigenous Knowledge Systems, Commission of Science and Technology, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Janos J. Bogardi, Executive Officer, Global Water System Project, Bonn, Germany Christof Mauch, Director, Rachel Carlson Center for Environment and Society, Munich, Germany Jean-Claude Bolay, Director, Cooperation and Development Center and Vice-Presidency for Academic Affairs, UNESCO Chair in Technologies for Development, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland Virginia Murray, Consultant, Medical Toxicologist, Chemical Hazards and Poisons Division, London, UK Stefan Brem, Head of Risk Analysis and Research Coordination,Federal Department of Defense, Civil Protection and Sport Federal Office for Civil Protection Policy Division, Bern, Switzerland Eugen Brühwiler, Professor and Director, Institute of Structural Engineering, IIC School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland Rhoda Birech, Department of Crops, Horticulture and Soil Sciences, Egerton University, Egerton, Kenya Juan Murria, Consulting Engineer, Director, Centro de Investigacion de Riesgos (Risk Research Center) Universidad de Falcon, Punto Fijo, Venezuela Norio Okada, Professor and former Director, Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University; President of IDRiM Society, Kyoto, Japan George Pararas-Carayannis, President, Tsunami Society International, Honolulu, USA Christopher G. Burton, Scientist, Social Vulnerability and Disaster Resilience, GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy Stefan Pickl, Chair for Operations Research Management, Safety & Security Alliance, COMTESSA Computer Science Faculty, Core Competence Center C3 for Operations Research, Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany Ian Burton, Emeritus Professor, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Saifur Rahman, Director, Virginia Tech Advanced Research Institute, Arlington, USA Peter Burgherr, Group Leader Technology Assessment, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut , Villigen, Switzerland Barbara J. Cliff, President and CEO, Windber Medical Center, Windber, USA Andrew E. Collins, Director of the Disaster and Development Centre, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom Francesco Della Corte, Director, Department of Emergency Medicine, Azienda Ospidaliero Universitaria Maggiore della Carità, Novara, Italy Rob de Wijk, Director, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague, The Netherlands Ranjith Dissanayake, Professor of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Craig Duncan, Senior Information Management Officer, Information Management Unit, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland Richard J. Eiser, Department of Psychology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom Mustafa Ö. Erdik, Professor, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey Michael H. Faber, Professor of Risk and Safety and Head of the Department,Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark Ortwin Renn, Department of Social Sciences, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany Christoph Ritz, Head, ProClim Forum for Climate and Global Change, Bern, Switzerland Badaoui M Rouhban, Director, Section for Disaster Reduction, UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris, France Jane E. Rovins, Executive Director, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR), Beijing, China Haresh C. Shah, Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University, Founder; Senior Advisor, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Stanford, USA Peijun Shi, Vice-President, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China Shital Hardik Shukla, Assistant Professor, Sardar Patel Institute of Economic and Social Research, Ahemedabad, India Alois J. Sieber, Head,Security Technology Assessment Unit, European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute, Ispra, Italy Cletus I. Springer, Director, Organization of American States, Department of Sustainable Development, Washington, USA Gerhard Franz Ulrich Stoessel, Focal Point for Disaster Risk Reduction, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Bern, Switzerland Jishnu Subedi, Coordinator, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Nepal Helen T. Sullivan, STARI Research Fellow and Department of Psychology Rider University, Lawrenceville, New Jersey, USA Marie-Valentine Florin, Managing Director, IRGC – International Risk Governance Council, Geneva, Switzerland Annegret H. Thieken, German Committee for Disaster Reduction DKKV, Potsdam, Germany Eladio Fernández-Galiano, Executive Secretary, European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement (EUR-OPA), Council of Europe, Strasbourg, France Tan Ngoh Tiong, Dean, School of Human Development and Social Services, SIM University, Singapore Nina I. Frolova, Senior Scientific Researcher, Seismological Center of Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Russian Academy of Sciences; Regional Director for Europa; Directors’ Board Member, TIEMS - The International Emergency Management Society, Russia Trias Aditya, Assistant Professor, Department of Geodetic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Thomas Usländer, Head of Department, Fraunhofer-Institute for Information and Data Processing (IITB), Department of Information Management, Karlsruhe, Germany Dirk Glaesser,Coordinator, Risk and Crisis Management,World Tourism Organization (UNWTO),Madrid, Spain Bartel van de Walle, President, ISCRAM Association and Associate Professor, Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands Patrick Gwimbi, Senior Lecturer, Department of Environmental Health, National University of Lesotho, Lesotho Eric Veulliet, CEO, alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Technologies, Innsbruck, Austria Johann Georg Goldammer, The Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC), Freiburg, Germany Christian Wilhelm, Head Natural Hazards, Forestry Department Grisons, Chur, Switzerland Peter Greminger, Senior Consultant, Ressources and Risk management, Federal Office for Environment, Bern, Switzerland Detlof von Winterfeldt, Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Markku T. Häkkinen, Senior Researcher, Department of Mathematical Information Technology, University of Jyväskylä, Finland Qian Ye, Professor, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China Ryusuke Hashimura, Associate Professor, Department of EcoDesign, Sojo University, Kumamoto, Japan Sidika Tekeli Yesil, Consultant, Department of Health Services at Emergencies and Disasters, Ministry of Health of Turkey, Turkey Makarand (Mark) Hastak, Professor and Head, Division of Construction Engineering and Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA John N. Zeppos, Deputy Director, Group BCM & ERM, COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A., Maroussi, Greece Yongnian He, Research Professor, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, People’s Republic of China Sam Hettiarachchi, Professor of Civil Engineering, University of Moratuwa; Chair, Risk Assessment Working Group of UNESCO/IOC/ ICG/IOTWS, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka Yasamin O. Izadkhah, Assistant Professor, Risk Management Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran 6 7
  • co-hosting institutions and Collaborating institutions GLOBAL RISK FORUM GRF DAVOS Co-hosting institutions GSDP Global Systems Dynamics & Policy, Berlin, Germany IRG-P Integrated Risk Governance Project, Beijing, China RCC Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, Munich, Germany From Thoughts to Action Collaborating institutions by closely linking practice, science, policy and decision making in the search for sustainable solutions. International organisations and initiatives alpS GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria FOCP Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection, Bern, Switzerland China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China CIPRA Commission internationale pour la protection des Alpes, Schaan, Liechtenstein CITYNET The Regional Network of Local Authorities for the Management of Human Settlements, Yokohama, Japan Council of Europe, Strasbourg, France DKKV German Committee for Disaster Prevention, Bonn, Germany Earth3000, Bierberstein, Germany EMI Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative, Quezon City, Philippines GLOBAL RISK FORUM GRF DAVOS EurOcean European Centre for Information on Marine Science and Technology, Lisboa, Portugal EARSC European Association of Remote Sensing Companies, Brussels, Belgium ESC European Seismological Commission IDRC CONFERENCES RISK ACADEMY PLATFORM Biennial IDRC Davos IDRC regional conferences and workshops Knowledge management Continuous education trainings Research and development Public awareness raising E-Journals: IJDRR and Planet@Risk GRF circles Open circles Closed meeting rooms GEM Global Earthquake Model, Pavia, Italy GEMNET Global Emergency Medical Net, Geneva, Switzerland GFMC The Global Fire Monitoring Center, Freiburg, Germany Greencross, Geneva, Switzerland Health Protection Agency, London, England ICCIP International Climate Change Information Programme, Hamburg, Germany ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal ICG International Centre for Geohazards, Oslo, Norway ICPEM Institute of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, Birmingham, UK ICSU International Council for Science, Paris, France International Network of Crisis Mappers GRF Davos aims to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience for all types of risks and disasters to protect life, environment, critical infrastructure, property and all means of business for the worldwide community on a sustainable basis. IRDR Integrated Research on Disaster Risk International, Beijing, China IRGC International Risk Governance Council, Lausanne, Switzerland ISCRAM International Community on information Systems for Crisis Response And Management IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland KWI Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities, Essen, Germany MCII Munich Climate-Insurance Initiative, Munich, Germany Swiss Society for Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, Zurich, Switzerland The International Emergency Management Society, Brussels, Belgium TIS innovation park ,Bolzano, Italy Tsunami Society International, Honolulu, USA Windber Medical Center, Windber, USA World Vision Switzerland, Dübendorf, Switzerland Multi measures approach along the risk cycle in integrative risk management Universities and research institutions Centre for Disaster Risk Management and Development Studies Minna, Nigeria CIR-UDEFA Centro de Investigación de Riesgos - Universidad de Falcón, Venezuela GRF booth at IDRC Davos 2012 Wing A - Foyer 8 Disaster and Emergency Management Program, York University, York, Canada DU University of Denver Gradutate school of social work, Denver, USA DMISA Disaster Management Institute of Southern Africa, Germiston, South Africa www.grforum.org DTU Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark 9
  • Climate Protection for All Your sponsorship of «Climate Protection for All» enables Caritas Switzerland to help vulnerable groups such as small farmers to adapt their agricultural production system to the changing climatic conditions and enhance their capacities to prevent and cope with disasters. With only one Swiss franc per day, you make a concrete and important contribution to helping the poorest of the poor to be better prepared for disasters and climate change. www.caritas.ch/sponsorship 10 24/08 - 25/08/2012 Pre- Conference 3rd VT Intern. Conference on Community Resilience (by invitation only) Parallel Session Chaired and supported by ESRI PLENARY 4 Understanding disasters Geospatial technologies in risk reduction and disaster management Poster Session Supported by RCC PLENARY 7 Open forum on risk and society Work shops Open Stage PLENARY 6 Urban risks and resilience Parallel Sessions Parallel Sessions Work shops Open Stage CONFERENCE DINNER Closing Ceremony PLENARY 11 The future of integrative risk management Exhibition Poster Session Syngenta Foundation Chaired and supported by PLENARY 9 Risk in agriculture Keynote Parallel Sessions Parallel Sessions Lunch Meetings Parallel Sessions Davos Dialogues Parallel Sessions Open Disasters, environment, and migration Stage Lunch Lunch Davos Meetings Dialogues Meetings Parallel Sessions Davos Dialogues Open Stage Chaired and supported by Swiss Re Parallel Sessions Davos Dialogues Lunch Meetings Chaired and supported by SDC PLENARY 10 Linking One Health and the Hyogo Framework for Action PLENARY 8.1 Global Risks - Country risk an Integrated management & financial Governance Approach PLENARY 8.2 preparedness for disasters PLENARY 5 SDC Street Event – Exhibition about Swiss Engagement in Development and Cooperation Book Corner / Publications Press Conferences Opening Reception Research education training & application in DRR PLENARY 1 Risk Award Keynote Opening Ceremony Parallel Sessions Become a sponsor of the movement PLENARY 3 Urban search & rescue WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland (by invitation only) Virginia Tech Advanced Research Institute, Arlington, USA Post Conference: GRF Davos Business Continuity Management Conference United Nations University - Institute for Sustainability and Peace Tokyo, Japan Parallel Sessions United Nations University - Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Bonn, Germany Parallel Sessions University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka Parallel Sessions UMASS Center for rebuilding sustainable communities after disasters, University of Massachusetts, Boston, USA Friday 31/08/2012 The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague, The Netherlands Thursday 30/08/2012 TERI The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India PLENARY 2 Mega disasters with cascading effects Wednesday 29/08/2012 SCNAT Swiss Academy of Sciences, Berne, Switzerland 22 - 26/08/2012 25/08 - 26/08/2012 SDC Urban Search and Rescue USAR D-A-CH Summit GRF Davos Risk Academy (by invitation only) course on Integrative Risk Management 23 - 25/08/2012 SDC Training Course Risk Sharing and Insurances Tuesday 28/08/2012 Saturday 01/09/2012 NGI Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway Monday 27/08/2012 Munich Center on Governance, Communication, Public Policy and Law Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Germany Sunday 26/08/2012 Istanbul Technical University Istanbul, Turkey Saturday 25/08/2012 EPFL École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland Friday 24/08/2012 Collaborating institutions Conference overview PSI Paul Scherrer institut, Villigen, Switzerland 11
  • plenary speakers Plenary speakers Short CV’s of the plenary speakers are available on the website: http://www.idrc.info plenary speakers Franz Mauelshagen, Deputy Director, Kulturwissenschaftliches Institut KWI, Essen, Germany                                   Rudi Mueller, Chief Emergency Services Branch, UN OCHA, Geneva, Switzerland                   Virginia Murray, Head, Extreme Events and Health Protection, UK Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom              H.E. Ms Maria Mutagamba, Minister of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, Governement of Uganda, Kampala, Uganda                    Urs Amiet, Senior USAR Advisor, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland         David Nabarro, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition, and the UN System  Influenza Coordinator, Geneva, Switzerland      Walter J. Ammann, President, GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerland          Paul Ouédraogo, Senior Regional Advisor for Africa, RAMSAR Convention, Gland, Switzerland                  Marwan Bader Ahmad Alsmeiat, Colonel, MBA BA, Jordanian Civil Defense, Initial Project Manager of the JOR IEC-Team, Amman, Jordan            Martyn Parker, Chairman Global Partnerships, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland     Alice Balbo, Global Adaptation Coordinator and “Resilient Cities”- Project Manager, ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Bonn, Germany      Greg  Bankoff, Professor University of Hull, Cottingham, United Kingdom (tbc)                   Jeff  Baranyi, Public Safety Technology Lead, ESRI, Broomfield, USA                    Tso-Chien Pan, Professor, Founding Executive Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological  University, Singapore                   Louis Pauly, Professor, Canada Research Chair in Globalization and Governance and Professor of Political Science, University of  Toronto, Toronto, Canada      André  Bationo, Senior Resource Mobilization Officer at AGRA, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, Nairobi, Kenya          Wendi Pedersen, GIS analyst and a rapid mapping expert, UNOSAT, United Nations Institute for Training and Research  (UNITAR), Geneva, Switzerland         Esther  Baur, Director of Communications and Head of Issue Management & Messages, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland             H.E. Ms Ama I. Pepple, CFR, Federal Minister of Land, Housing and Urban Development, Abuja, Nigeria                Heather  Bell, Science Advisor, Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Hawaii, USA                   Stefan Wolfgang Pickl, Prof. , Chair for Operations Research COMTESSA, Department of Computer Science, Universität der  Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany           Manuel  Bessler, Ambassador, Head of the Humanitarian Aid Department, Swiss Agency for Development and  Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland           Jörn  Birkmann, PD, Head of Section, United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn,  Germany H.E. Mr. Najib  Boulif, Ministre délégué auprès du Premier Ministre, Chargé des affaires générales et de la gouvernance,  Government of Morocco, Rabat, Morocco        Roger S. Pulwarty, Dr., Director, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Oceanic & Atmospheric  Administration, USA               H.E. Mr. Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan, Minister for Home Affairs, Kerala, India                     Sulton Rahimov, First Deputy Minister of Melioration and Water Resources, Dushanbe, Tajikistan                 Joaquin Ramirez, Principal Consultant, DTS Wildfire, Orlando, USA                     Albrecht  Broemme, President, Technisches Hilfswerk THW, Bonn, Germany                     Andreas Rechkemmer, Prof., Chief Science and Policy Advisor, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerland            Mike  Bushell, Principal Scientific Advisor, Syngenta, Basel, Switzerland                     Ortwin Renn, Professor and Chair, Environmental Sociology and Technology Assessment, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart,  Germany              Wendy  Cue, Chief, Environmental Emergencies Section, Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit, Office for the Coordination of  Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva, Switzerland         Joao Ribeiro, General Director INGC Mozambique                     Ambassador Martin Dahinden, Director General, Swiss Development and Cooperation Agency SDC, Berne, Switzerland                 Victoria A. Rockwell, President, American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASME, New York, U.S.A. (tbc)                Eric Des Marais, Adjunct Faculty Graduate School of Social Work University of Denver, Denver, USA              Badaoui Rouhban, Director, Section for Disaster Reduction, UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural  Organization, Paris, France            Craig Duncan, Senior Programme Officer, UN-ISDR, Geneva, Switzerland                     Stefan Engler, Senator of the Canton of Grisons at the Swiss Federal State Council, Surava, Switzerland             Marco  Ferrari, Dr., Member of the Board of Directors of GRF Davos, Former Chair of the Drafting Committee for the Hyogo  Framework for Action, Thun, Switzerland    Haresh C. Shah, Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University, Founder and Senior Advisor Risk  Management Solutions, RMS Inc., Stanford, USA          Hamzeh Shakib, Professor, Tarbait Modares University, Tehran, I.R. Iran                    Marco Ferroni, Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland                  Peijun Shi, Professor Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China                     Walter Fust, former Ambassador Swiss Government, Hessigkofen, Switzerland                     Anthony Oliver Smith, Professor University of Florida, Gainesville, USA            Andreas Götz, President, Swiss National Platform for Natural Hazard Reduction PLANAT, Vice-Director Federal Office for  Environment, FOEN, Berne, Switzerland          Charles  Steger, President, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USA                      Edgar Grande, Prof., Chair for Comparative Policy Analysis, University of Munich, and Board Member Munich Center on  Governance, Munich, Germany  Bron Taylor, Professor University of Forida, Gainesville, USA                     David Harper, Special Adviser to the Assistant Director-General for Health Security and Environment, World Health  Organization Headquarters WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.         Jack Harrald, Professor and Director a.i. Center for Community Security and Resilience, Virginia Tech, Arlington, USA                          Linda Hornisberger, MD Vet., Senior Search Expert, Swiss Disaster Dog Association (REDOG), Switzerland                Carlo Jäger, Professor for Economy, PIK Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany                    Russ Johnson, Director of Public Safety, ESRI, Redlands, USA                    Kirk Junker, Prof., Chair International Master of Environmental Science, and Chair in US American Law, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany         Daniel Kull, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, Geneva Representative of the World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Geneva, Switzerland Ryan Lanclos, Disaster Management Industry Manager, ESRI, Redlands, USA                    Thomas Loster, Chairman Munich Re Foundation, Munich, Germany                     Christoph Stueckelberger, Professor, Dr., Executive Director and Founder Globethics.net, Geneva, Switzerland                 Muralee Thummarukudy, Senior Programme Officer, Post-Conflict and Disaster Management Branch, United Nations  Environment Programme, Geneva, Switzerland             Simon Tschurr, Rapid Response, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland               Simon Valär, President Municipal Council, City of Davos, Davos, Switzerland                   Sander van der Leeuw, Dean & Professor, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Phoenix, USA              Carmen Vogt, Policy Advisor for Urban Development, German Development Cooperation (GIZ) GmbH, Eschborn, Germany               Margareta Wahlström, Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNISDR,  Geneva, Switzerland             Cathy Watson, Livestock Emergency Guidelines and Standards (LEGS) Coordinator, Addis Abbeba, Ethopia             James Herbert Williams, Dean and Milton Morris Endowed Chair, Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver,  Denver, USA           Simon Young, Manager CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, Bridgetown, Barbados                  Uwe Lübken, Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, Munich, Germany                  Dario Luna, Ministry of Finance, Government of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico                  John D. Macomber, Prof., Senior Lecturer in Finance and Real Estate and Gloria A. Dauten Real Estate Fellow, Harvard  Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA     Michael J. Manfredo, Professor and Department Head, Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State  University, Fort Collins CO, USA           Diana Mangalagiu, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford  United Kingdom, and Professor of Strategy at Reims Management School, Reims, France               12 13
  • List of exhibitors List of exhibitors List of Exhibitors Digital Globe DigitalGlobe owns and operates the most agile and sophisticated constellation of high-resolution commercial earth imaging satellites. QuickBird, WorldView-1 and WorldView-2 together are capable of collecting over 900 million km² of quality imagery per year with intraday revisit around the globe. Come to our booth, you will learn how our satellite constellation is used to monitor natural and manmade major disasters as well as monitoring of civil unrest, refugee displacement and military operation on a global scale. www.digitalglobe.com Elsevier Elsevier is a world-leading publisher of scientific, technical and medical information products and services. The company works in partnership with the global science and health communities to publish more than 2,000 journals, including The Lancet and Cell, and close to 20,000 book titles, including major reference works from Mosby and Saunders. Elsevier’s online solutions include ScienceDirect, Scopus, Reaxys, MD Consult and Nursing Consult, which enhance the productivity of science and health professionals, and the SciVal suite and MEDai’s Pinpoint Review, which help research and health care institutions deliver better outcomes more cost-effectively. A global business headquartered in Amsterdam, Elsevier employs 7,000 people worldwide. http://www.elsevier.com ESRI- The GIS Software ESRI is an exciting company doing important work. Their technology enables organizations to create responsible and sustainable solutions to problems at local and global scales. ESRI, believes that geography is at the heart of a more resilient and sustainable future. Governments, industry leaders, academics, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) trust ESRI to connect them with the analytic knowledge they need to make these critical decisions that shape the planet. www.esri.com Food and Agricultural Organization FAO www.fao.org Global Risk Forum GRF Davos www.grforum.org UNDP’s Global Risk Information Programme (GRIP) Hosted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), GRIP is a multi-stakeholder initiative that aims to promote sustainable development by reducing the impacts of natural disasters in high risk countries. With the mission of providing “better risk information for sound decision making”, GRIP facilitates the generation of evidence-based risk information, and its application to policy and decision making. Officially launched as a United Nations’ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR) Thematic Platform for Risk Identification in 2007 at the 1st session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, GRIP is supporting worldwide activities to identify and monitor disaster risks. http://www.gripweb.org ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability is an association of over 1220 local government members who are committed to sustainable development. Our members come from 70 different countries and represent more than 569,885,000 people. ICLEI is an international association of local governments as well as national and regional local government organizations who have made a commitment to sustainable development. ICLEI provides technical consulting, training, and information services to build capacity, share knowledge, and support local government in the implementation of sustainable development at the local level. Our basic premise is that locally designed initiatives can provide an effective and cost-efficient way to achieve local, national, and global sustainability objectives. www.iclei.org European Commission Joint Research Centre International Conference on Integrated Natural Disaster Management INDM JRC As the Commission’s in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre’s mission is to provide EU policies with independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support throughout the whole policy cycle. The JRC helps to strengthen the EU’s resilience to crises and disasters through its research in crisis management technologies, structural assessment of buildings, protection of critical infrastructures, disaster risk analysis, situational awareness and early warning. http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/ Fire Watch International AG Fire Watch international AG was founded in December 2007 Switzerland. FWI AG was incorporated to market a new technology, developed in close cooperation with the Fire Management Center SDIS13 at Marseille since 2004. The business target is focused on long range sensor system to survey and detect different sources of environmental hazards. The major commercial product is based on the optical automated smoke detection system “Forest Ranger” which can be implemented into sophisticated computerized fire management systems and procedures. http://www.fire-watch.ch 14 The 5th International Conference on Integrated Natural Disaster Management (INDM 2012) will be held in Tehran on December 16 -17 2012 in collaboration with national and international organizations. The Conference aims to bring together experts from various fields related to risk management to collate information on different aspects of risk prevention and reduction and risk management. Our past achievements in four previous INDM conferences were made possible by strong dedication and sincere contribution of experts, researchers and consultants worldwide. INDM Organizing Committee looks forward to continue these collaborations and hope that the upcoming INDM conference provides a forum for a new direction in hazard and risk management and DRR in the world. www.indm2012.org International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IFRC As the world’s largest humanitarian relief and development network, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has significant knowledge and experience in implementing community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) programmes. Building safe and resilient communities is at the heart of these CBDRR programmes. The humanitarian relief and recovery operation following the Tsunami in 2004 provided IFRC with a unique opportunity to analyse the two key challenges in implementation of its programmes; a) to gauge how we articulate resilience in a meaningful way to the target communities of CBDRR programmes and the CBDRR practitioners and b) to identify the critical factors conducive to the achievement of the needed impact and sustainability in implementing CBDRR programmes in support of resilience building. In 2010-2011 IFRC commissioned studies on community resilience and critical factors conducive to resilience building. These studies resulted in the production of reports on a) characteristics of a safe and resilient community; b) key determinants of a successful community-based disaster risk reduction programme; and c) lessons learned. On display in the IFRC exhibition will be the reports of these resilience studies as well as various publications and CD’s on disaster risk reduction activities in support of community safety and resilience. Among publications are case studies of cost benefit analysis, guidelines on vulnerability and capacity analysis, early warning, public education, climate change adaptation and mitigation, community-based programmes for disaster preparedness, livelihoods, food and nutrition security, etc. www.ifrc.org Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) was established under the roof of Istanbul Governorship and project conducted by Istanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU). ISMEP consists of three components, which are; • Increasing the Emergency Preparedness • Reduction of Seismic Risk for Priority Public Buildings • Application of Building Codes Within the scope of the exhibition it is aimed to present of ISMEP via journals, CD’s and relevant activities. http://www.ipkb.gov.tr Kockum sonics Kockum Sonics has its roots in the early days of industrialisation. Over the years we have delivered innovative design solutions for marine and industrial applications worldwide. Kockum Sonics, Alarm Concept, TYFON ®, is an electro dynamic sound emitter system for Civil Defense, Industrial Alarm, Tsunami Alarm, Port Facilities, Gas Terminals, Chemical Plants, Water and Flood Alarms and more. Kockum Sonics sound emitter system gives you a maintenance free modern technology suitable for all environments Our strength is your benefit! http://www.kockumsonics.com Northumbria University http://www.northumbria.ac.uk NRS international development. For more than 30 years, we have been developing technical innovations and promoting social action education. In development cooperation we work on projects for energy efficiency and renewable energy. We focus on food processing with renewable energy, transforming organic waste into energy and adapted climatisation for buildings with the goal of North-South cooperation by means of know-how transfer, capacity building and innovation. www.oekozentrum.ch Partnership for Environment and Disaster Reduction PEDDR The Partnership for Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction (PEDRR) is a global alliance of UN agencies, NGOs and specialist institutes. PEDRR seeks to promote and scaleup implementation of ecosystem management approaches for disaster risk reduction and ensure it is mainstreamed in development planning at global, national and local levels, in line with the Hyogo Framework for Action. This exhibition booth offers key publications on ecosystem-based DRR, posters, videos and other information materials from PEDRR partners. http://pedrr.net Rachel Carson Center for Environment & Society (RCC) The goal of the Rachel Carson Center is to further research and discussion in the field of international environmental studies and to strengthen the role of the humanities in the current political and scientific debates about the environment. One of its six research clusters focuses on natural disasters and cultures of risk. The exhibition gives an overview of the research conducted by Carson Fellows within this field. Therefore, a variety of books and information material will be presented. www.carsoncenter.uni-muenchen.de/index.html REDOG REDOG is a not-for-profit humanitarian organization. This association provides the Swiss confederation and cantons with certificated teams of specialists in the field of rubble retrieval and site-search for in-and outland deployments 365 days a year. As a member of the rescue chain, REDOG has been acknowledged by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and disposes of deployment experience in humanitarian disaster operations. REDOG is moreover member of the Swiss Red Cross as well as a partner organization of the air-rescue organization REGA and the Alpine Rescue Switzerland (RSC). REDOG is further a section of the Swiss Cynologic Association. The dog’s nose – the best tracking tool: When an earthquake destroys cities or when an explosion leads to the collapse of a house, the chance of survival for buried people may depend on the deployment of disaster dogs. Up to the present day, the dog’s nose represents the most reliable tracking tool to localize human scent under meters thick rubble. Besides training teams of disaster dogs, REDOG further trains so called all-terrain search dogs, whose noses also is of precious use when latter haphazardly locate missing persons on hard to access or unclear terrain. no description at the time of printing http://www.nrs-international.com Rhaetian Railways (RhB) Bernina Express Ökozentrum (Centre of Appropriate Technology From glaciers to palms Experience one of the most spectacular ways to cross the Alps: and Social Ecology) Ökozentrum (Centre of Appropriate Technology and Social Ecology) is a pioneering competence centre for sustainable The Albula and Bernina lines of the Rhaetian Railway. This winding mountain railway connects northern and southern Europe without the use of a toothed-wheel mechanism. A 15
  • List of exhibitors GRF Davos Business Continuity IDRC Post-Conference particular high-point of the ride is the panoramic view from the Bernina Express, as it passes mighty glaciers on its descent to a land of swaying palms Since summer 2008, the section between Thusis and Tirano has been classed as a UNESCO World Heritage site. A milestone in our history. www.rhb.ch/berninaexpress Royal Roads University Located in Victoria, British Columbia, Royal Roads University is a unique public university that delivers quality applied and professional programs designed to advance students and professionals in a world increasingly driven by knowledge and innovation. We offer a wide range of graduate and undergraduate degrees in Business and Management, Communication, Conflict and Emergency Management, Education Studies, Environment and Sustainability, Leadership, Tourism and Hospitality Management and Executive Education. www.royalroads.ca Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP The Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP analyses hazards and threats and develops measures to protect the population, its vital resources and cultural property as best as possible from the effects of disasters, emergencies and terrorist attacks; aims to provide comprehensive protection of the population from nuclear, biological and chemical hazards; ensures that in the event of a disaster the relevant authorities and operational bodies are alerted immediately and provided with all necessary information; supports the cantons in relation to civil protection training and also runs its own training courses; supports the cantons with the development and maintenance of the infrastructure needed to protect, alert and guide the population. The United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction UNISDR Invest today for a safer tomorrow: The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) provides evidence and tools for building the resilience of nations and communities to disaster and advocates for increased investment for local action. Learn more about the Hyogo Framework for Action and consultations on the post-2015 framework agreement, the Global Platform and Global Assessment Report for Disaster Risk Reduction, and how to get involved in the Making Cities Resilient ‘My city is getting ready!’ world disaster reduction campaign and PreventionWeb. IDRC Post-Conference: GRF Davos Business Continuity Business Continuity through Integrative Risk Management – Prepare for the Unexpected in Times of International Crisis 31 August 2012 - Davos - Switzerland Established in 2006, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a partnership of 42 countries and eight international organizations committed to helping developing countries reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and adapt to climate change. The partnership’s mission is to mainstream disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) in country development strategies by supporting a country-led and managed implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). Register now! Mainly addressed are the infrastructure and service sectors (energy, water, food, transportation, finance, investment, insurance/reinsurance, etc.). Representatives of both private and the public sector are equally encouraged to join the event. The World Bank holders, from crisis coordination to reputation management, business continuity is a rapidly developing field. This one-day symposium will examine the trends and challenges in BCM, consider recent experience of business crises, and present some examples of good practice in this field. Who should attend? www.unisdr.org The complexities of modern business in a globalized world and the pervasive effects of hazards and disasters are posing new and dynamic challenges to the private as well as to the public sector. From supply chain management to effective communication with the general public and share- The registration for the event is still open, but the number of available spaces is limited. Register now directly at the IDRC Davos 2012 registration desk. www.worldbank.org Trunz Water Systems www.trunzwatersystems.com www.bevoelkerungsschutz.admin.ch Swiss Re Operating in more than 20 countries, and with a presence on all continents, Swiss Re is one of the world’s largest and most diversified reinsurers. It complements a proven reinsurance portfolio for Property & Casualty and Life & Health with insurance-based corporate finance solutions and services for comprehensive risk management. www.swissre.com Swiss Vacuum www.swissvacuum.com for sustainable The Syngenta Foundation aims to create value for resourcepoor small farmers in developing countries through innovation in sustainable agriculture and the activation of value chains. The foundation works with partners in developing countries and emerging markets. Their aim is to help small farmers become more professional growers by extending sciencebased know-how, facilitating access to quality inputs, and linking smallholders to markets in profitable ways. This adds value for rural communities, and sustainably improves food security. The Syngenta Foundation focuses on productivity and the inclusion of farmers in remunerative value chains. The focus is on ‘pre-commercial’ farmers, often in semi-arid areas, who display potential for agricultural growth. Fees: EUR 100.00 incl. conference material, lunch and coffee breaks www.hochdrei.ch www.hochdrei.ch Syngenta Foundation agriculture Nebenan und trotzdem mittendrin Der ideale Ausgangspunkt für Wander- und Biketouren, Nordic Walking oder Spaziergänge. Alle 30 Minuten Busverbindung von und nach Davos. Im Sommer freie Fahrt auf allen Bergbahnen und weitere Vergünstigungen mit der Davos Inclusive Card. www.syngentafoundation.org 365 Tage im Jahr offen 16 www@kessler-kulm.ch info@kessler-kulm.ch Organized by: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos In close collaboration with and supported by: COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A, Athens, Greece Venue: Congress Centre Davos, Room Dischma, Talstrasse 49a, 7270 Davos Platz Under the patronage of: the International Labour Organisation ILO Endorsed by: The Business Continuity Institute BCI Programme available at: http://businesscontinuity.idrc.info CH-7265 Davos Wolfgang Telefon +41 (0)81 417 07 07 17
  • street event Agenda at a glance Federal Department of Foreign Affairs FDFA Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Agenda at a glance Wednesday 22 August 2012 9:00-17:00 Switzerland takes action SDC –Street events from 26 – 28 August 2012 in front of the Davos Congress Centre For over 50 years Switzerland's Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Aid has been committed to reducing poverty, relieving suffering and promoting sustainable use of natural resources. To mark the UN's year of 'Sustainable Energy for All' in 2012 The Swiss Agency for Cooperation and Development SDC is inviting all those interested to accompany it on a journey of discovery through thematic areas such as water, scarcity of natural resources, food security, environment and natural disasters. Learn more about the Swiss contribution to international development. The example of brick production: by using simple, locally manufactured hand presses men, women, and even children can produce the bricks needed to build their own houses. This means they are not just aid recipients, but active participants in the reconstruction process. SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH summit (by invitation only) pre-conference External Thursday 23 August 2012 9:00-17:00 SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH summit (by invitation only) pre-conference External 9:00-17:00 SDC internal training course Risk sharing and insurances (by invitation only) pre-conference External Friday 24 August 2012 9:00-17:00 SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH summit (by invitation only) pre-conference External 9:00-17:00 SDC internal training course Risk sharing and insurances (by invitation only) pre-conference External 9:00-21:00 Pre-conference 3rd VT international conference on community resilience (by invitation only) pre-conference External Saturday 25 August 2012 9:00-17:00 pre-conference External 9:00-17:00 SDC internal training course Risk sharing and insurances (by invitation only) pre-conference External 9:00-12:00 Presentation at the Street Event 2011 SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH summit (by invitation only) Pre-conference 3rd VT international conference on community resilience (by invitation only) pre-conference External Project in Sudanese refugee camp, Chad Switzerland also makes a large national and international contribution to USAR (urban search and rescue), and has chaired the UN-INSARAG (UN International Search and Rescue Advisory Group) since its inception in 1991. As part of the SDC street events, you are warmly invited to participate in the simulated rescue of victims trapped beneath rubble. The simulated rescue will be carried out by experts of the Swiss charitable organisation of search and rescue dog-handlers, REDOG, and their dogs together with trained members of the rescue service of the Swiss Armed Forces and members of the SHA. Perhaps you would also like to experience the world under rubble from below? DAVOS DIALOGUES Interested to share your thoughts on the plenary sessions? GRF Davos invites you to join the daily Davos Dialogues which is a topical meeting point for anyone to meet and continue discussions during lunchtime. The moderated discussions aim to enrich the IDRC Davos 2012 outcomes. Topics to discuss are related to the plenary sessions and change on a daily basis. Moderation: David Alexander, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Location: Poster Exhibition Area, Foyer C1 Simulation at the Street Event 2011 Swiss Rescue in operation, Earthquake Indonesia in 2009 Time: 12:30-12.50 from Monday, 27. to Thursday, 30. August 2012 Rescuing life through good cooperation - this is the basic tenet of INSARAG. INSARAG supports the Federal Emergency Authority in coordinating all players for the benefit of those in need of help. Get to know the broad range of civil defence services offered by the Local Emergency Authority. 18 19
  • Agenda at a glance Time Agenda at a glance Session type Room Time SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH summit (by invitation only) pre-conference 12:30-13:00 SDC Street Event - Swiss engagement in Development and Cooperation – Exhibition opening ceremony Resilient development practice – from fragmentation towards integration; from workshop theory into action session Seehorn Elsevier author workshop workshop workshop session Sertig plenary Davos Sanada 1 Education and training in DRR session Sertig Understanding your risk environment Sanada 2 Wisshorn Vulnerability and natural hazards session Entrance 14:00-15:30 Sanada 1 Capacity Building for Social-Ecological Resilience External session Mass casualty incidents – lessons learned 9:00-12:00 Room Integrative earthquake risk management Sunday 26 August 2012 Session type Flüela Risk communication session Flüela session Sertig Challenges and opportunities in building a resilient city Welcome reception Reception session Seehorn Coffee break 19:30-20:30 Understanding Disasters - Geospatial Technologies in Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDP Conference opening - Risk award - Plenary: From Thoughts to Action: Research, Education, Training and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 16:40-18:10 18:40-20:10 16:00-19:30 Coffee break 18:10-18:40 15:30-16:oo 16:10-16:40 plenary Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk session assessment and management Davos Wisshorn Tuesday 28 August 2012 08:30-10:00 plenary 10:00-10:30 10:30-12:00 Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) - improved preparedness through capacity plenary development of national emergency services 12:00-13:00 Lunch break 12:30-12:50 Davos Dialogues: Mega disasters with cascading effects 13:00-14:30 Swiss Early Warning System for natural hazards session Dischma Socio economic aspects of natural hazards session Flüela Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness PART 1 session Aspen 1 Global exposure monitoring for multi-hazards risk assessments session Governance and decision making in DRR session Davos Foyer C1 session Sertig session Seehorn Information and communication technologies for risk management Coffee break Flüela Integrative risk management - Examples from member organisations of the Swiss NGO DRR Platform on how to increase resilience Davos session session Wisshorn Integrative tsunami risk management Mega disasters with cascading effects Dischma Early warning in disaster risk reduction 08:30-10:00 session Natural hazard resilient cities Monday 27 August 2012 ESS project – technical and conceptual challenges session Sanada 1 plenary Davos 10:00-10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Country Risk Management and Financial Preparedness for Disasters 12:00-12:20 Financial Risks vs. Financing Resilience - A Debate between Louis Pauly and John open stage Macomber 12:00-13:00 Lunch break Seehorn 12:30-12:50 Davos Dialogues: The use of new technologies in DRR Wisshorn 13:00-14:30 Same problem – different solutions session Dischma Davos Foyer C1 Increasing disaster resilience through participative development of standards in workshop land management, urban planning and construction Sanada 2 Social media and linguistics as part of an integrative risk management session Flüela Integrative risk management approaches Sanada 1 Natech risk reduction after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami session Sertig session 14:30-14:40 Break 14:40-16:10 Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: A governance point of view session Mobilising the creation of a risk governance culture Seehorn Seehorn Mapping tools for risk management session Wisshorn session Flüela Local actions and community empowerment session Sanada 1 Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness PART 2 session Aspen 1 Assessement and decision making in risk management session Sanada 2 Panel discussion on education for disaster risk reduction session Dischma 14:30-14:40 Break Megadisasters and cascading effects 20 Special Swiss Re session on Economics of Disasters – Costs and Financing session mechanisms session Wisshorn 14:40-16:10 Public empowerment policies for crisis management workshop Dischma 21
  • Agenda at a glance Time Agenda at a glance Session type Room Time “Taking preparedness seriously” – Revisiting the gaps and challenges in linking early warning and timely response between community and government levels session Flüela 12:30-12:50 Davos Dialogues: Urban risks and resilience Foyer C1 Capacity building and awareness session Sertig 13:00-14:30 Collectors, coordinators and directors - Innovation in the management of disasters workshop Dischma Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction: Moving from Theory to Practice session Sanada 1 Integrated risk assessment: what kind of multi-risk analysis to support the risk session reduction decision-making process? Flüela Environmental changes and health implications session Wisshorn Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world session Sertig Critical Infrastructures I session Seehorn Rio+20 and The Future of Sustainability and Disaster Risk Reduction session Aspen Climate change: impacts, preparadness and adaptation session Wisshorn Ecosystem based approaches and engineering measures session Sanada 1 session Dischma Session type Room 16:10-16:40 Coffee break 16:40-18:10 Urban Risks and Resilience 18:10-18:30 Launch of the Handbook for Local Government Leaders in Farsi, Chinese, Spanish, open stage Russian and French Davos 14:30-14:40 Break 18:10-19:30 Risk financing and sharing poster Foyer C1 14:40-16:10 The benefits of standardisation in reducing seismic risk Integrated seismic risk management poster Foyer C1 Improved Risk information to support sound policy/decision making processes – session The UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme, GRIP’s experience Sanada 2 Mountain risks poster Foyer C1 Risk, society and culture (RCC) session Sertig Education and capacity building poster Foyer C1 Scenarios and models in DRR session Seehorn Urban risk poster Foyer C1 Special Swiss Re session on Financial Tools for Disaster Risk Management session Wisshorn Risk, society and culture poster Foyer C1 Agriculture, land degradation and drought session Sanada 1 Ecosystem based approaches poster Foyer C1 16:10-16:40 Coffee break Flood risks poster Foyer C1 16:40-17:25 Supporting resilient systems for one health, food security and nutrition: keynote participatory risk reduction at critical interfaces Davos GIS for Disaster Management workshop Dischma 17:25-18:55 Risk in Agriculture Davos Public private partnership approaches session Flüela 18:55-19:15 International Year of Water Cooperation, 2013: Mainstreaming Water Cooperation open stage into Water related Disaster Risk Reduction by Sulton Rahimov Davos Open Forum on Risk and Society plenary Davos 18:55-20:00 Critical infrastructures poster Foyer C1 Business continuity management poster Foyer C1 Disaster and crisis management poster Foyer C1 Local action and community empowerment poster Foyer C1 Prepardness and early warning poster Foyer C1 Risk governance poster Foyer C1 Climate change adaptation & disaster risk reduction poster Foyer C1 Health and medical interventions within emergency situations poster Foyer C1 GIS for Disaster Management workshop Dischma Business continuity management session Flüela 18:30-19:15 19:30-21:00 plenary Davos Wednesday 29 August 2012 08:30-10:00 Ubiquitous technology to facilitate preparedness, practice, and situational workshop awareness before, during, and after disasters Dischma European critical infrastructures: which analysis framework for supporting session effective decision making? Flüela A converging vision of resilience building between the private sector and civil session society Sertig Climate change, migration and displacement (RCC) session Seehorn Critical infrastructures II session Wisshorn Risk in urban areas session Sanada 1 19:15-20:00 10:00-10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Global Risks – an Integrated Governance Approach plenary Davos Disasters, Environment and Migration plenary Aspen 12:00-12:20 Open stage: The Colorado Wildfires 2012: Exposing the risk of re-rural migration in the Western U.S. by Michael Manfredo open stage Davos 12:00-13:00 Lunch break plenary 22 Davos 23
  • Agenda at a glance Time red Chair Session type Room Contribute to the IDRC Davos 2012 outcomes: Thursday 30 August 2012 08:30-10:00 Towards a safer world: a whole-of-society approach to disaster preparedness workshop Aspen Recent and future developments in EU Security Research. From a counter-terrorism session focus towards a wider support for natural and accidental large scale crisis or disasters. All hazard approach. Dischma Disaster risk reduction in the Hindu Kush – Himalayan Region session Flüela The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ session science Sertig 10:00-10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Linking One Health and the Hyogo Framework for Action 12:00-13:00 Lunch break 12:30-12:50 Davos Dialogues: The One Health paradigm and its context to the HFA 13:00-14:30 Financing the green transformation: opportunities and challenges ahead session Dischma “Making the Connection” – Practical experiences on linking disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and ecosystem management session Flüela Monitoring and modelling for risk management session Sertig Tackling risk in agriculture session Seehorn Health within disaster risk reduction session Wisshorn Local actions and community empowerment II session Sanada 1 plenary Davos Red Chair Use the Red Chair to make a statement on risk and disaster reduction! Foyer C1 14:30-14:40 Break 14:40-16:10 The future of alerting the public – Discussion of human behavior, information expectations and technology use in an intercultural context workshop Dischma Integrative flood risk management session session Sertig Critical infrastructures III session Seehorn Medical emergencies session Wisshorn The evaluation of UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme – Analyzing the session results and findings of a forward looking evaluation process All statements will be published daily on the GRF Davos website and in GRF Davos social media sections. The Red Chair statements will contribute to the input to the 4th UNISDR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction next year in Geneva. Flüela Water security: responses to local, regional, and global challenges All participants are invited to go to the Red Chair video booth and make a well-focussed statement lasting 1-2 minutes. Sanada 1 16:10-16:40 The Future of Integrative Risk Management 18:10-18:30 Closing ceremony Davos 19:00-23:00 Conference dinner (in front of room Forum) Coffee break 16:40-18:10 Location: Exhibition area, Level Talstrasse Berghotel Schatzalp plenary Davos Join GRF Davos on: Friday 31 August 2012 8:45-16:30 24 GRF Davos business continuity summit post-conference Dischma 25
  • Congress center maps Congress center maps Congress maps TALSTRASSE LEVEL KURPARK LEVEL WING C d ng Nor ga Ein m Lift au 22 nikr LG ch Te ft Li Zi ir z ut C as W 30 W Her LG LG FT LI ft WC Li A Studio WC inar . 39 eh B LG C W 41 05 r KP ge La Sem um 2 SANADA 2 ra LG inar 42 Sem LG Foyer 10 r LG ge La ed 17 GW KN r ge 08 La ir ha FT LI 37 t LG anitä S 24 21 FORUM FT LI 9 R 11 r LG ge La LG WC WC Foyer 1 um ra C WC n re vo er rres se 29 ng ga ch Zu vils Zi C Office 11 FOYER C 1: Poster Exhibtion z ut ch vils ng ga Zu SANADA 1 GW KN tt 43 ta LG erks W 20 FT LI FT LI er m lkam stel KP 3 17 Ab Foyer -9.51 GW KN R6 3 4 5 22 Foyer 26 70 14 1 12 6 WISSHORN 7 20 15 22 21 21 0 REI6 11 22 DAVOS DIALOGUES Lager 23 30 WC I60 RE WC s Pa ge sa EXHIBITORS 18 see page 64 for more information 27 13 SERTIG 10 16 FLÜELA PORTRAITS of GLOBAL CHANGE Risk, Environment and Human Mobility 28 see page 64 for more information 2 s Pa 19 ge sa REI60 A Congress Office RE ST GI TIO RA DISCHMA T IN PO D ER A N W PLO IO PO USTAT N I60 26 see page 14 - 16 for detailed information on the exhibitors 8 SCHWARZHORN RE 1 Digital Globe 2 Elsevier 3 ESRI- The GIS Software 4 European Commission Joint Research Centre JRC 5 Fire Watch International AG 6 Food and Agricultural Organization FAO 7 Global Risk Forum GRF Davos 8 UNDP’s Global Risk Information Programme (GRIP) 9 ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability 10 International Conference on Integrated Natural Disaster Management INDM 11 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IFRC 12 Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) 13 Kockumsonics 14 Northumbria University 15 nrs international 16 Ökozentrum (Centre of Appropriate Technology and Social Ecology) 17 Partnership for Environment and Disaster Reduction PEDDR 18 Rachel Carson Center for Environment & Society (RCC) 19 REDOG 20 Rhaetian Railways (RhB) Bernina Express - From glaciers to palms 21 Royal Roads University 22 Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP 23 Swiss Re 24 Swiss Vacuum 25 Syngenta Foundation for sustainable agriculture 26 United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction UN-ISDR 27 The World Bank 28 Trunz Water Systems 22 ACT or REACT? Papadopoulou on Climate Change & Climate Refugees Plenary DAVOS WC 25 REI 60 18 SEEHORN ENT RAN CE TAL S TRA SSE WING A SDC STREET EVENT Swiss engagement in Development and Cooperation 27
  • Congress center maps Congress center maps PROMENADE LEVEL WING C MID LEVEL C Grialetsch C Office 32 WC ft Li t Lif WC Foyer WC ft Li ASPEN 2 ASPEN 1 CHAMONIX* C W C W Lift t Lif Lift t Lif *Internet Workstations WING C UPPER LEVEL A Landwasser MR = Meeting Room PR = Prayer Room MR ------MR PR ht t ac nluf Schusse A The topic for the next Risk Award will be published during the 4th UNISDR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, 19-23 May 2013, Geneva, Switzerland Risk Award 2012: Award ceremony during the opening of IDRC Davos 2012, Sunday 26 Aug.2012, 16:00 28 29
  • DETAILed programme wednesday 22. to SUNDAY 26. Aug. 2012 DETAILed Programme SUnday 26. Aug. 2012 Detailed programme Sunday 26.Aug. 2012 Wednesday 22.Aug.2012 12:00-18:00 Registration 9:00-17:00 Room 12:30-13:00 SDC Street Event - Swiss engagement in Development and Cooperation – Exhibition opening ceremony Entrance of the conference center SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH Summit (by invitation only) External Thursday 23.Aug.2012 14:00-15:30 9:00-17:00 Room SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH Summit (by invitation only) External 9:00-17:00 SDC internal training course Risk sharing and insurances (by invitation only) External Room Location Friday 24.Aug.2012 9:00-17:00 Room SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH Summit (by invitation only) External 9:00-17:00 Room Convenor 14:00-15:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers SDC internal training course Risk sharing and insurances (by invitation only) External Room 9:00-21:00 Room Shuai HE; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Social vulnerability to natural hazards in China Paola SALVATI; CNR - IRPI, Italy, Republic of; Temporal and geographical variation of geo- 9:00-17:00 SDC internal training course Risk sharing and insurances (by invitation only) External Pre-Conference 3rd VT International conference on community resilience (by invitation only) External Sunday 26.Aug.2012 9:00-12:00 Room Session: Vulnerability and natural hazards Seehorn David ALEXANDER; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Karen I SUDMEIER-RIEUX; UNEP, France Alan Peter MARCH; University of Melbourne; Human settlement indices for bushfire risk in Australia Asimiyu Mohammed JINADU; Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; Rural hazards and vulnerability assessment in the downstream sector of Shiroro dam, Nigeria Genevieve TAYLOR; University of Canterbury, New Zealand; EU disaster risk reduction in the Asia assessment of cotton to hail in China based on historical records, field investigation and ground experiments Chiho OCHIAI; Kyoto University, Japan; A study on the various types of community-based disaster management in mid-sized cities in Japan: a case study from Saijo City hydrological risk to the population of Italy SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH Summit (by invitation only) External Room Wisshorn Stephen J. LATHAM; World Vision, Switzerland Pacific: reducing the social vulnerability of children Pre-Conference 3rd VT International conference on community resilience (by invitation only) External 9:00-17:00 Room 9:00-12:00 Workshop organized by World Vision YaoJie YUE; School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Vulnerability Saturday 25.Aug.2012 Room Workshop: Resilient development practice – from fragmentation towards integration; from theory into action SDC Urban search and rescue USAR D-A-CH Summit (by invitation only) External 14:00-15:30 Workshop: Elsevier author workshop Room Convenor Sertig Katherine Claire EVE; Publisher, Elsevier Earth & Environmental Sciences 14:00-15:30 Workshop: Understanding your risk environment Room Convenor Sanada 1 Sean MURPHY; Lootok, United States of America 14:00-15:30 Room Chair Chair Session: Education and training in DRR Flüela Madeleine COLBERT; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Yasamin O. IZADKHAH; International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran, Islamic Republic of Hideyuki SHIROSHITA; Kansai University, Japan; Volunteers in disaster education centres: another Speakers Workshop organized by Elsevier Earth & Environmental Sciences Workshop organized by Lootok important role of disaster education centres Ralf Josef Johanna BEERENS; Netherlands Institute for Safety (NIFV) – Research Department (The Netherlands); Maximise your returns in crisis management preparedness: a cyclic approach to training and exercises Sheng CHANG; School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Training programs for risk reduction of typhoon disaster chains in southeast coastal region of China Helga KROMP-KOLB; BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria; The risk of the wrong priorities in university education Katharina Anna KALTENBRUNNER; Department of Social and Business Sciences, Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS), Austria; Dynamic potential in disaster exercises: identification – development – evaluation Hideyuki SHIROSHITA; Kansai University, Japan; What kind of disaster education should be explored after the Great East Japan Earthquake? 15:30-16:00 30 Coffee break 31
  • DETAILed Programme SUnday 26. Aug. 2012 16:00-19:30 Room Opening ceremony Davos Featuring Music Part 1: Roger WIDMER, Tenor: Serenata by Pietro Mascagni, accompanied by Stefan WIRTH, Piano Official opening statements Walter J. AMMANN; President, GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerland Ambassador Martin DAHINDEN; Director General, Swiss Development and Cooperation Agency SDC, Berne, Switzerland Stefan ENGLER; Senator, Canton of Grisons, Chur, Switzerland (tbc) Simon VALÄR; President Municipal Council, City of Davos, Davos, Switzerland DETAILed Programme Monday 27. Aug. 2012 Monday 27. Aug. 2012 7:30-18:00 Registration 8:30-10:00 Room Plenary session 2: Mega Disasters with Cascading effects Davos Recent disasters, such as the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, have revealed that initial failures, in particular of technical systems, may trigger subsequent damage that results in mega-disasters which impact the built environment and create political, social, and financial consequences, not only at the country level, but also to the international community as a whole. The global risk community is called upon to develop innovative tools for decision making processes and practical intervention against global, systemic and complex risks, as well to combat very large disasters. This session will address questions about how these cascading effects lead to megadisasters and what measures should be applied to reduce their effects. Panelists will consider how well prepared the world is, and ought to be, in the face of exceptionally large and complex disasters during the whole risk cycle. They will address intervention, response and recovery, and also prevention and preparedness measures. Are there really completely unforeseen events, popularly known as ‘black swans’, or are we merely neglecting the risks posed by low probabilityhigh consequence phenomena? There will be an emphasis on the interaction of intense and high-magnitude physical events with socio-economic consequences and vulnerabilities, and on how to prevent, or at least interrupt, the development of cascading events. Also emphasized will be the importance of redundant systems and of resilience regarding the threat of mega disasters. Chair Kirk JUNKER; Professor, Chair International Master of Environmental Science, and Chair in US American Law, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany Panellists Albrecht BROEMME; President, Technisches Hilfswerk THW, Bonn, Germany Wendy CUE; Chief, Environmental Emergencies Section, Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva, Switzerland H.E. Ms. Maria MUTAGAMBA; Minister of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, Government of Uganda, Kampala, Uganda Tso-Chien PAN; Professor, Founding Executive Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Haresh C. SHAH; Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University, Founder and Senior Advisor Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Stanford, USA Charles STEGER; President, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USA Muralee THUMMARUKUDY; Senior Programme Officer, Post-Conflict and Disaster Management Branch, United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva, Switzerland Margareta WAHLSTRÖM; Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UN-ISDR, Geneva, Switzerland 10:00-10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Plenary session 3: Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) - improved preparedness through capacity development of national emergency services Davos Opening keynote addresses Margareta WAHLSTRÖM; Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland; “Managing Disaster Risk for Resilience in the 21st Century” Andreas GÖTZ; President, Swiss National Platform for Natural Hazard Reduction PLANAT, ViceDirector Federal Office for Environment ,FOEN, Berne, Switzerland; “The Swiss Strategy” Featuring Music Part 2: Roger WIDMER, Tenor: Ständchen by Franz Schubert, accompanied by Stefan WIRTH, Piano Munich Re Foundation Risk Award (see page 28) Offered by Munich Re Foundation and organized together with UNISDR and GRF Davos, the biennial Risk Award is dedicated in 2012 to the topic of “Early warning in urban areas”. Walter J. AMMANN; President, GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerland Margareta WAHLSTRÖM; Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland Thomas LOSTER; Chairman Munich Re Foundation, Munich, Germany Award Winner Featuring Music Part 3: Roger WIDMER, Tenor: You Do Something to Me, by Cole Porter, accompanied by Stefan WIRTH, Piano 18:00-19:30 Room Plenary session 1: From Thoughts to Action: Research, Education, Training and Application in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Davos There is an imperative need to improve the transfer of knowledge, technology and expertise and the sharing of best practices and lessons that may help to enhance capacity building for sustainable risk reduction and improved disaster management. Panelists will consider what kinds of research, education and training are needed in order to respond efficiently to risks and disasters in the future and how new technologies can enhance the processes of learning about reducing risks and managing disasters. They will discuss how to build capacity in order to analyse, map and forecast hazard, risk, vulnerability and impact. In particular, they will address the problem with respect to developing countries, which may be less equipped financially and institutionally to adapt than are developing countries. Panelists will consider what support should be given to developing countries so that they can improve evidence-based science and education, access information more readily, and enhance governance. The session will address how to raise awareness in all sectors of society, and how to make sure that relevant information is disseminated effectively to policy-makers, the general public and communities at risk. In order to reduce vulnerabilities and increase resilience, information must be integrated into decisionmaking processes. The session will investigate gaps and improvements in research, education, training and knowledge transfer and will discuss how to link DRR with sustainability science and climate change adaptation. Chair Ambassador Martin DAHINDEN; Director General Swiss Development and Cooperation Agency SDC, Berne, Switzerland Kirk JUNKER; Professor, Chair International Master of Environmental Science, and Chair in US American Law, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany Joao RIBEIRO; INGC Mozambique – General Director Victoria A. ROCKWELL; President, American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASME, New York, U.S.A. (tbc) Badaoui ROUBHAN; Director, Section for Disaster Reduction, UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris, France Charles STEGER; President, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USA Margareta WAHLSTRÖM; Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Disaster Risk Reduction, UN-ISDR, Geneva, Switzerland Supported, organized and chaired by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, SDC Urban search-and-rescue is needed for a variety of emergencies or disasters, including earthquakes, hurricanes, typhoons, storms, tornadoes, floods, dam failures, technological accidents, terrorist activities and hazardous materials releases. The events may be slow in developing, as in the case of hurricanes and droughts, or sudden, as in the case of earthquakes and tornadoes. Rescue after structural collapse is one of the most challenging and dangerous disaster response activities. Sophisticated, multidisciplinary search-and-rescue capabilities have been created to address the difficulties of finding, reaching and extricating trapped survivors. The session will include a discussion on how to build and sustain urban search-and-rescue capacities within a national crises management structure. This includes assessment of the needs associated with USAR capacity development. It also involves showcasing best practices in knowledge transfer and partnership building, and promoting agreed global standards. Haresh C. SHAH; Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University, Founder and Senior Advisor Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Stanford, USA Panellists Room 32 Chair Ambassador Manuel BESSLER; Deputy Director-General and Head of the Humanitarian Aid Department, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland Moderator Simon TSCHURR; Rapid Response, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland Panellists Marwan Bader Ahmad ALSMEIAT; Colonel, MBA BA, Jordanian Civil Defense, Initial Project Manager of the JOR IEC-Team, Amman, Jordan Urs AMIET; Programme Officer, Swiss Humanitarian Aid Unit, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland 33
  • DETAILed programme Monday 27. Aug. 2012 DETAILed programme monday 27. Aug. 2012 Fredrik BYNANDER; Centre for natural Disaster Research, Sweden, Kingdom of; Dealing with Ambassador Manuel BESSLER; Deputy Director-General and Head of the Humanitarian Aid Department, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Berne, Switzerland Linda HORNISBERGER; MD Vet., Senior Search Expert, Swiss Disaster Dog Association (REDOG), Switzerland Rudolf MÜLLER; Deputy Director and Chief, Emergency Services Branch, OCHA Geneva, Switzerland 12:00-13:00 Davos Dialogues: Mega disasters with cascading effects Foyer C1 David ALEXANDER; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Camelia DUMITRIU; Quebec University, Montreal, UQAM, Canada; A disaster management framework for coping with acts of extreme violence in school settings: a field study Nibedita Shankar RAY-BENNETT; University of Leicester, United Kingdom; Risky talks and talking risks in disaster management: a way forward or backward? Walter West HAYS; Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction; Have we finally found the elusive “Higgs Boson” particle of disaster risk Reduction? Lunch break 12:30-12:50 Location Moderator disaster in transitional democracies 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Speakers 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers 13:00-14:30 Workshop organized by RICSDMC Session: Swiss Early Warning System for natural hazards Session organised by the Swiss Federal office for civil protection BABS Dischma Christoph WERNER; Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz BABS, Switzerland Josef Theodor HESS; Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, Switzerland Patrick SMIT; Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection, Switzerland Christoph SCHMUTZ; Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, Switzerland Martina SÄTTELE; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Switzerland Room Convenor Sanada 2 Shailesh KATARIA; Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Disaster Mangement Commission, United Kingdom 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Speakers Session: Integrative risk management approaches Sanada 1 Carmelo DIMAURO; RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of Carmelo DIMAURO; RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of; A regional multi-risk assessment approach to support the definition public mitigation strategies Session: Socio economic aspects of natural hazards Flüela Helena Marie MOLIN-VALDES; UNISDR, Switzerland Mohsen NADI; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic of Brian G. MCADOO; Yale-NUS College, Singapore; How do different geohazards affect mortality and Niru NIRUPAMA; York University, Canada; A reasonable success story of vertical evacuation against tropical cyclones in India Wilfried HAEBERLI; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland; Integrated assessment of high mountain hazards and related prevention strategies in the Peruvian Cordilleras Beatrice HEDELIN; Karlstad university, Sweden, Kingdom of; A framework for sustainable natural hazard management Sven HALLDIN; Centre for Natural Disaster Science, Sweden, Kingdom of; Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) – a strategic Swedish initiative for disaster risk reduction Djillali BENOUAR; USTHB, Built Environment Research Laboratory (LBE), Alger, Algeria; FORIN or Farout ? Exploring multiple drivers of disaster risks in Africa John L. CLARKE; Marshall Center, Germany, Federal Republic of; What role for soldiers? economic losses? Swati MITRA; Micro Insurance Academy, India, Republic of; Integrative disaster risk management: case study from India on social and economic re-construction Jidong WU; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China; Interregional economic impact analysis of the Wenchuan earthquake, China Robert MUIR-WOOD; RMS Ltd, United Kingdom; Annualized catastrophe mortalities and driving long term risk reduction Chow Fah YEE; Green Economics Institute, UK; Social cost benefit analysis: a way to optimize net economic benefits Man LI; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; The regional economic impact of catastrophe - case study on the China-Japan auto industry after the Great East Japan Earthquake Colin GREEN; Middlesex University, United Kingdom; The role of economics in making better sustainable flood risk management decisions 13:00-14:30 Workshop: Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness PART 1 Workshop organized by SDC Room Convenors 14:30-14:40 Break 14:40-16:10 Session: Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: A governance point of view Session organized by UNISDR Room Chair Speakers Aspen 1 Simon TSCHURR; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Switzerland Peter GOXHARAJ; German Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) 13:00-14:30 a driver for mainstreaming DRR into Climate Adaptation Strategies change adaptation: a pan European perspective Seehorn Daniele EHRLICH; Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy, Republic of Mauro DOLCE; Bureau for Seismic and Volcanic Risk, Italian Civil Protection Department Daniel KULL; World Bank, United States of America; World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure Daniele EHRLICH; Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy, Republic of; Processing satellite imagery for mapping physical exposure globally 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers Karl-Otto ZENTEL; DKKV - German National Platform for DRR; Mainstreaming disaster risk Session organized by the Joint Research Centre, European Commission modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiative Nicole KELLER; GEM Foundation, Italy; Building a Global Exposure Database Session: Governance and decision making in DRR Wisshorn Qian YE; Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People’s Republic of Helen T SULLIVAN; Rider University, United States of America Kurt PETERSEN; Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management, Sweden; A study of the performance of risk and vulnerability assessments by Swedish Public Agencies Ortwinn RENN; University of Stuttgart, Germany, Federal Republic of; Social unrest: a systemic Seehorn Francesc PLA; Council of Europe, France Demetrio INNOCENTI; UNISDR Europe Regional Office Craig DUNCAN; UNISDR; Using Disaster Inventories Databases for Loss and Damage Assessment as Francesc PLA; Council of Europe - EUR-OPA; Governance in disaster risk reduction and climate Session: Global exposure monitoring for multi-hazards risk assessments Room Chair Chair Speakers Workshop: Increasing disaster resilience through participative development of standards in land management, urban planning and construction reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of view: case study Europe / Germany Jaroslav MYSISAC; FEEM Confronting two headed dragon: disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation in the case of small island developing states 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Speakers Session: Mobilising the creation of a risk governance culture Session organized by the International Risk Governance Council Flüela Marie-Valentine FLORIN; International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), Switzerland Helena MOLIN-VALDES; United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR); The role of local actors for creating effective risk governance culture Tim PRIOR; Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich, Switzerland; Risk cultures, the social construction of risk, and coordinated responses to global and systemic risks Ortwin RENN; University of Stuttgart; Risk culture: implications for risk governance Stephan SCHRECKENBERG; Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue; On Risk Governance - A reinsurer’s view risk perspective 34 35
  • DETAILed programme monday 27. Aug. 2012 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Convenors 14:40-16:10 Workshop: Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness PART 2 Workshop organized by SDC Aspen 1 Simon TSCHURR; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Switzerland Olivier HAGON; University Hospitals of Geneva DETAILed programme monday 27. Aug. 2012 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Speakers Session: Panel discussion on education for disaster risk reduction Room Chair Speakers Session organized by UNESCO and UNICEF Dischma Julia HEISS; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) David SELBY; Sustainability Frontiers; A Global Mapping of Disaster Risk Reduction Curriculum Badaoui ROUHBAN; UNESCO; Launch of the UNICEF/ UNESCO publication Disaster Risk Reduction in school curricula: case studies from thirty countries Fumiyo KAGAWA; Sustainability Frontiers; Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction into the Curriculum: A Technical Guidance Tool Dmitry KAVTARADZE; Ecology and Environmental Preservation in the Academy of Social Affairs, Russian Federation; Cultural landscape of DRR in Russia Marla PETAL; Author of the School Safety Baseline study; Assessing school safety from disasters- a 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Speakers 16:10-16:40 Coffee break 16:40-18:10 Plenary session 4: Understanding Disasters - Geospatial Technologies in Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Davos Room Supported, organized and chaired by ESRI. Nowadays, a large variety of tools and instruments is available to provide basic inputs for the analysis and assessment of risks and disasters. Information from different backgrounds and perspectives can be visualized in new, flexible ways and linked with comparative ease to other models, algorithms and tools. Geospatial technologies play an important role in risk reduction and disaster management. GIS and satellite imagery are indispensable tools in DRR, be it for hazard and risk analysis, characterization of vulnerability or assessment of damage. This information is useful, not only for prevention and preparedness, but also to reduce response time and enhance accuracy during the intervention and recovery phases of disaster. Crisis response imagery and related spatial information may greatly assist priority setting and resource allocation in DRR, and may speed up information exchange. This session will discuss how to use geospatial technologies, vulnerability modeling, data mining, and other emerging techniques in order to add benefit to risk reduction and disaster management. Stefan PICKL; Universität der Bundeswehr München, Germany, Federal Republic of; Simulation and optimization of cascading effects - strategic multilayered risk management Petra SEIBERT; Institute of Meteorology, BOKU, Austria, Republic of; Severe accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe: possible consequences and mapping of risk Petrissa ECKLE; Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland; Risk of large oil spills: A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deep Water Horizon Peijun SHI; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; Formation mechanism, process and risk evaluation system of disaster chain Ansa MASAUD; Rebuilding Cities after crises: Lessons learnt from urban disaster and conflicts empowerment and citizens’ interest in participation in natural disaster management: case study earthquake at Tehran districts’ level Christine Marie KENNEY; Edith Cowan University, Australia; Addressing risk and resilience: an analysis of Māori communities and cultural technologies in response to the Christchurch earthquakes Dina RUSLANJARI; Graduate School, University of Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, Republic of; Role of local wisdom in rapidity of rehabilitation and reconstruction post earthquake in multireligious and monoreligious villages: a case in Bantul, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Chiara CASAROTTI; EUCENTRE Foundation, Italy, Republic of; DRHOUSE project: the ASA module for the post earthquake structural assessment Mojgan TAHERI TAFTI; The University of Melbourne, Australia; Policy impact and livelihood recovery of retailers in earthquake affected cities Hlekiwe KACHALI; Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, New Zealand; Recovery and resilience of industry and geographic sectors after the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes Muhammad Abbas CHOUDHARY; University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of; Causes of success and failure in post disaster reconstruction projects – a case study of post 2005 earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction in Northern Pakistan 36 Sertig Chaim RAFALOWSKI; Magen David Adom, Israel, State of Leo LATASCH; Public Health Authority Frankfurt am Main; Hospital & EMS – Real Time Information Carmen LEIS; SAMUR-Protección Civil. Madrid. Spain; Terrorist Train Bombings in Madrid. Learned risk reduction and resilient disaster reconstruction Session: Integrative earthquake risk management Sanada 1 Patrick SMIT; National Emergency Operations Centre, Switzerland Christian H. BARTHELT; Munich Re Foundation, Germany, Federal Republic of Shabbou VAZIRPOUR; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Science & Research Tehran Azad University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Relationship between community Session organized by Magen David Adom Lessons H Kit MIYAMOTO; Miyamoto International, United States of America; Global perspective on seismic 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Mass Casualty Incidents – Lessons learned by Magen David Adom Israel education shapeshifters and flexibility Sanada 2 James Herbert WILLIAMS; University of Denver, United States of America Philip TEDESCHI; University of Denver, United States of America Eva WUTTGE; GIZ, Eschborn, Germany, Republic of Stephan HUPPERTZ; GIZ, Eschborn, Germany, Republic of Michael MANFREDO; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States of America Gueladio CISSE; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland Paul OEDRAOGO; Regional Director, Ramsar Convention, Gland, Switzerland Tran Kim LONG; Government of Vietnam, VietNam, Socialist Republic of Andreas RECHKEMMER; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland SOGRO Ian RODGERS; Save the Children; Disaster Risk Management in Schools – The Second Pillar Guillaume SIMONIAN; United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF); Disaster risk reduction and Session: Megadisasters and cascading effects Wisshorn Craig DUNCAN; UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Switzerland Geary Wayne SIKICH; Logical Management Systems, Corp., United States of America; Black swans, Session supported by University of Denver and GIZ Guy CASPI; Magen David Adom, Israel; Lessons Learned from Multi Casualty incidents response baseline study (on video) 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Speakers Session: Capacity Building for Social-Ecological Resilience Chair Russ JOHNSON, Director of Public Safety, ESRI, United States of America Panellists Jeff BARANYI; Public Safety Technology Lead, ESRI, United States of America Dr. Heather BELL; Science Advisor, Pacific Disaster Center, United States of America Russ JOHNSON; Director of Public Safety, ESRI, United States of America Ryan LANCLOS; Disaster Management Industry Manager, ESRI, United States of America Wendi PEDERSEN; GIS analyst and a rapid mapping expert, UNOSAT, United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), Geneva, Switzerland Joaquin RAMIREZ; Principal Consultant, DTS wildfire, United States of America 18:10-18:40 Reception 18:40-20:10 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Risk communication Flüela Marita VOS; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Finland, Republic of Chowdhury EMDAD HAQUE; University of Manitoba, Canada Elisabeth MAIDL; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland; Does risk communication raise property owners’ preparedness to implement safety measures against flood damage? Jie-Ying WU; Ming-Chuan University, Taiwan, Republic of China; Risk communication and evacuation decision making: the case of residents in debris flow vulnerable area in Taiwan Vivienne BRYNER; The Centre for Science Communication, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; The Greater Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011: a case study in the communication of science for disaster risk reduction 37
  • DETAILed Programme monday 27. Aug. 2012 DETAILed Programme Tuesday 28. Aug. 2012 Eila Sinikka MURPHY; Jyväskylä University, Finland, Republic of; Evaluating disaster preparedness Tuesday 28. Aug. 2012 Sandrine GLATRON; CNRS (National center for scientific research), France; The impact on the public 7:30-18:00 in West Sumatra of preventive information about risks 19:00-20:10 Room Chair Speakers Session: Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDP Session organized by the Integrated Risk Governance Project (IRGP)/IHDP Sertig Diana MANGALAGIU; Oxford University, United Kingdom Qian YE; IHDP-IRG Project; Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDP Michael J. MANFREDO; Colorado State University, United States of America; One Health Initiative Carlo JAEGER; Global Climate Forum, Germany, Federal Rebublic of, Chair; Current Status of GSDP Tso-Chien PAN; Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Saini YANG; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of ; Case Comparison in Typical 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Speakers 19:00-20:10 Session: Challenges and opportunities in building a resilient city Room Chair Speakers Seehorn Seda KUNDAK; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of Seda KUNDAK; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of; Resilience: from theory to Room Chair Speakers K. Gokhan ELGIN; Istanbul Project Coordination Unit, Istanbul Governorship; Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) 8:30-10:00 Handan TURKOGLU; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of; A training program for disaster mitigation through urban planning 19:00-20:10 Workshop: Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management Session organized by Université Paris-EST, EIVP Flüela Damien SERRE; EIVP, France Rutger DE GRAAF; Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Session: Integrative risk management - Examples from member organisations of the Swiss NGO DRR Platform on how to increase resilience Session organized by the Swiss NGO DRR Platform Room Chair Speakers Sertig Nicole CLOT; Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation, Switzerland Christina AEBISCHER; Swiss Red Cross, Switzerland; Building community resilience by integrating disaster risk reduction and health system strengthening Esther MARTHALER; Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation; DRR in fragile context (Afghanistan) Nicole CLOT; Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation, Switzerland; Strengthening resilience through learning and transformation Maja HUERLIMANN; Caritas, Switzerland; Strengthening resilience at community level; linking up community DM with Government DM Workshop organized by UNDP-GRIP Room Convenors Session: Natural hazard resilient cities Floating ecocities as a strategy to reduce the vulnerability of delta areas Heinrich WEBLER; Stadtwerke Mainz AG, Germany, Federal Republic of; Flood risk management – creating efficiency by stakeholder involvement Marie TOUBIN; Egis, France; Promote urban resilience through collaborative urban services management practice raising public awareness, education and volunteering Dischma Chaim RAFALOWSKI; Magen David Adom, Israel, State of Gideon HAZZANI; VERINT, Israel; The Emergency Support System - ESS: Concept and technology Chaim RAFALOWSKI; Magen David Adom, Israel; Emergency Support System - ESS : The end-user perspective 8:30-10:00 Mikdat KADIOGLU; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of; The ISMEP activities on Session: ESS project – technical and conceptual challenges Session organized by Magen David Adom Adrien MANGIAVILLANO; CEREN, FR; Emergency Support System - ESS: System’s field tests Jose HERRERO; GMV, Spain; Emergency Support System - ESS : The web-portal Vulnerable Regions Session organized by Istanbul Technical University Registration Wisshorn Carlos Anibal VILLACIS; UNDP-BCPR, Switzerland Jianping YAN; UNDP-GRIP 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Early warning in disaster risk reduction Seehorn Peijun SHI; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of Marc STAL; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Natasha Marie UDU-GAMA; Macquarie University, Australia; Community early warning systems: back to basics Md. Abu SYED; Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Bangladesh; Disaster management information network - a community-based multi-hazard early warning information communication process Sung Jin HONG; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Analysis of evacuation system and resident’s cognition on coastal disaster prevention Christian H. BARTHELT; Munich Re Foundation, Germany, Federal Republic of; Early warning and the human factor - people-centered warning systems and awareness are key Christoph HAEMMIG; Geotest AG, Switzerland; Early warning of glacial lake outburst floods and climate change monitoring in the Karakoram mountains, P.R. China Dwikorita KARNAWATI; Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia, Republic of; Hybrid socio-technical approach for effective risk communication, risk management and early warning system Cristina PARRAGA NIEBLA; German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Germany, Federal Republic of; The benefits of alerting system based on standardised libraries 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Information and communication technologies for risk management Wisshorn Markku T HÄKKINEN; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of Muhammad Abbas CHOUDHARY; University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Lili YANG; Loughborough University, United Kingdom; Design guidelines for human computer interfaces supporting fire emergency response 38 39
  • DETAILed Programme Tuesday 28. Aug. 2012 Eileen CULLETON; Emergency 2.0 Wiki Ltd, Australia; How the emergency 2.0 Wiki can help build resilient communities, empowered with the knowledge to use web 2.0 and social media in emergencies Jae Woong CHO; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Development of natural disaster damage investigation system using smartphone in Korea DETAILed Programme Tuesday 28. Aug. 2012 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Speakers Margarete Charlotte DONOVANG-KUHLISCH; IBM Deutschland GmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of; Session: Integrative tsunami risk management Sanada 1 Sam.S.L HETTIARACHCHI; University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of Christopher G BURTON; GEM Global Earthquake Model, Italy, Republic of Hyoung Seong PARK; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Development of tsunami disaster response system in Korea Carmen LEIS; SAMUR-Protección Civil, Madrid, Spain; Same problem – different solutions: Spanish Model 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Speakers Manuela DI MAURO; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Integrating science with practice to advocate tsunami risk reduction interventions Ugo GUARNACCI; University of Reading, United Kingdom; Risk, altruism and resilience in posttsunami Indonesia: a gendered perspective Yasamin O. IZADKHAH; International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) Iran, Islamic Republic of; Tsunami awareness in Bander Chabahar, south of Iran Dong Seag KIM; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Tsunami hazard mapping through characteristic analysis of inundation Sam.S.L HETTIARACHCHI; University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Tsunami risk assessment and management - case studies from Sri Lanka 10:00-10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Room H.E. Mr Mohamed Najib BOULIF; Ministre délégué auprès du Premier Ministre, Chargé des affaires générales et de la gouvernance, Government of Morocco, Rabat, Morocco Stéphane JACOBZONE; Counsellor - Public Governance and Territorial Development, OECD Secretariat, Paris, France Dario LUNA; Ministry of Finance, Government of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico Martyn PARKER; Chairman Global Partnerships, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland Simon YOUNG; Manager CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, Bridgetown, Barbados Room Open Stage: Financial Risks vs. Financing Resilience - A Debate between Louis Pauly and John Macomber Davos 12:00-13:00 Lunch break 12:30-12:50 Location Moderator Davos Dialogues: The use of new technologies in DRR Foyer C1 David ALEXANDER; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland 12:00-12:20 40 Flüela René EGGENBERGER; armasuisse, Switzerland Urs WILLI; Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften; Welcome address René EGGENBERGER; armasuisse, Switzerland; Integrative risk management Michael SCHANNE; Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften, Switzerland; Crisis, communication: the acceptability of risk communication in a multilingual Europe 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Natech risk reduction after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami Session organized by the European Commission, Joint Research Centre Sertig Elisabeth KRAUSMANN; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy Hirokazu TATANO; Kyoto University, Japan Elisabeth KRAUSMANN; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; Natech accidents following the great eastern japan earthquake and tsunami Yoshio KAJITANI; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; Indirect economic impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake: approach by Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Hirokazu TATANO; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; Measuring industrial production capacity caking account of malfunctions of production capital and lifeline systems disruptions caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March, 2011 Elisabeth KRAUSMANN; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; RAPID-N: A tool for mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes 13:00-14:30 Session: Special Swiss Re session on Economics of Disasters – Costs and Financing mechanisms Room Chair Speakers Seehorn Reto SCHNARWILER; Swiss Reinsurance Ltd, Switzerland Nina BECKER; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research- UFZ; Cost assessment of natural Session organized by Swiss Re hazards – state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendations Tabyaoui MOHAMED; Government of Morocco; Risk Management of Natural Disasters in Morocco: a project of Global and Integrated Strategy Michael NIXON; Government of Cayman Islands; Economic impact of disasters in the Caribbean Martyn PARKER; Chairman Global Partnerships, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland Panellists Session organized by Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften Zarah ESMAIL; Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Germany, Republic of; Understanding risk Supported, organized and chaired by Swiss Re Chair Session: Social media and linguistics as part of an integrative risk management communication, social media Plenary session 5: Country Risk Management and Financial Preparedness for Disasters Davos The public sector is increasingly attracted to integrative risk management. Given the interconnectedness of risks and the broad diffusion of the economic, financial, social and political effects of natural and man-made disasters, the focus is shifting from disaster risk reduction focused on particular sectors to comprehensive, country-level risk management. While prevention must be the first priority, governments are increasingly concerned about the costs involved and have started to take a closer look at new ways of funding risk-reduction measures. This session will discuss good practice in establishing country risk management practices and how to limit the impact of disasters on national economic growth. The plenary speakers each represent a country or region that has taken a leading role in rethinking risk management and the financing of measures. They will respond to the following questions: What are the most novel and innovative approaches? What motivates governments to shift the paradigm towards all-hazards risk management, and towards innovative insurance solutions to the financing of measures? What has triggered fundamental changes and what are the expected benefits? How much progress has been made so far? What are key challenges and obstacles that need to be overcome? What lessons from the paradigm shift have been learned for other countries to follow? Dischma Chaim RAFALOWSKI; Magen David Adom, Israel, State of Leo LATASCH; Frankfurt City Health Department; Initial medical care of Chemical patients Chaim RAFALOWSKI; Magen David Adom, Israel; MDA Response to a Mass Casualty Toxicological Accident Underpinning sustainability with advanced and visual analytics within the intelligent operations center 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Same problem – different solutions Session organized by Magen David Adom and experience with CCRIF Fatima KASSAM; World Food Programme; African Risk Capacity – Sovereign Disaster Risk Management for Africa 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Mapping tools for risk management Wisshorn Peter BURGHERR; Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerland Armin HAAS; Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Federal Republic of Peijun SHI; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; Relationship of the environmental risk and surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau - a remote sensing evidence approach Ali PANAHI; Islamic Azad University, Sardrood branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Developing realistic rapid earthquake damage evaluation method for decision making, using GIS. Case study: Iran Kerman city Giampaolo COCCA; ERSAF; Extreme forest fires and predictive power of fire danger Indexes: a deepening in the Alpine region Stefan FALEMO; Swedish Geotechnical Institute, Sweden; Mapping landslide risk in the Göta river valley, Sweden – methods and experiences 41
  • DETAILed Programme Tuesday 28. Aug. 2012 DETAILed Programme Tuesday 28. Aug. 2012 Yin ZHOU; School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Mapping the flood (PAGASA); Low cost flood early warning systems based on linking local governments and disaster risk of metropolitan region in the Yangtze River Delta of China 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Local actions and community empowerment Sanada 1 Diana MANGALAGIU; Oxford University, United Kingdom Franz STÖSSEL; SDC, Switzerland Nathan COOPER; Community Preparedness and Risk Reduction Department, IFRC; Characteristics of safe and resilient communities and key determinants of successful disaster risk reduction programmes Kristoffer BERSE; Department of Urban Engineering, University of Tokyo, Japan; International municipal cooperation as a modality for transferring local best practices in disaster risk management: practice, promise and pitfalls Ted Yu Shen CHEN; University of Melbourne, Australia; Disaster cultural resilience of religious communities – case study from Sri Lanka post 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Manash Ronjan BHADRA; Shusamaj Foundation, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Empowering communities to cope with disaster risks through community-based disaster management Laila Naz TAJ; Focus Humanitarian Assistance Europe Foundation, United Kingdom; Impact of the 2011 drought among communities in Afghanistan 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Speakers Session: Assessment and decision making in risk management Sanada 2 Pane STOJANOVSKI; Asia Risk Centre, Inc., United States of America Angelika WIRTZ; Munich Reinsurance Company, Germany, Federal Republic of; The need of communities in the Philippines 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Speakers a new model of capacity building Wolfgang KROMP; BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, ISR; The role of societal context in severe technical accidents Arjen DE LANDGRAAF; Bricade Ltd, New Zealand; READ - Risk Exposure Awareness and Deflection - creating an organization-wide risk awareness program Magnus HAGELSTEEN; LUCRAM, Lund University, Sweden; Seven elements for capacity development for disaster risk reduction Magnus JOHANSSON; Centre for Climate and Safety, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden; Social learning in education – an important step in practical integration of preventive risk reduction and adaptation to climate change 14:40-16:10 Session: Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction: Moving from Theory to Practice Room Chair Speakers Sanada 1 Muralee THUMMARUKUDY; United Nations Environment Programme, Switzerland Thiruvanchoor RADHAKRISHNAN; Ministry of the State of Kerala, India Abé Delfin OCHOU; Ministry for Environment and Sustainable Development, Côte d’lvoire Marta MONJANE; IUCN - International Union for Conservation of Nature, Eastern and Southern Africa Region Daniel KULL; Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Switzerland 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Environmental changes and health implications Wisshorn Virginia MURRAY; Health Protection Agency, United Kingdom Monica Lynn SCHOCH-SPANA; University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, United States of America Kerstin Maja DRESSEL; sine-Institut gGmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of; A new public health disaster loss data - assessment of droughts in global databases Stephanie JAQUET; Global Risk Forum, GRF, Davos; Integrated risk assessment tools for decision- making. A case study from landslide affected mountain areas in Central Nepal Andreas KOLER; alpS GmbH, Austria, Republic of; Area wide risk assessment – a best practice example in the Province of the Tyrol Nicolai STEEN; DARA International, Spain, Kingdom of; Risk reduction index - methodology and preliminary findings Thi My Thi TONG; Kyoto University, Japan; School-based disaster risk reduction approach in building resilience for Central Vietnam Session: Capacity building and awareness Sertig Marie-Valentine FLORIN; International Risk Governance Council, Switzerland Jiahong WEN; Shanghai Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; GRIP-CERAM Shanghai - Hossein TEIMOORI; NIS CERT, Tehran, Iran; FMEA, Most Common Risk Assessment Method in Session organized by PEDRR concept for risk governance of vector-borne infections Yasamin O. IZADKHAH; International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran, Islamic Republic of; Vulnerability analysis of women’s health in natural disasters and Industry Bjørn KALSNES; Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, NGI, Norway; Landslide risk management proposed strategies for risk reduction 14:30-14:40 Break Michel JANCLOES; Health and Climate Foundation; The Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action 14:40-16:10 Workshop: Public empowerment policies for crisis management issues in SafeLand Room Convenor Speakers Nezha KHALLAF; LEM UMR, Lille, France; Haiti, two years later: What has happened to the injured? Factors affecting social integration of the 12th January 2010 earthquake victims in Port-au-Prince Network: strengthening the public health prevention and outbreak control strategy Shayani WEERESINGHE; Independent researcher, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Workshop organized by the PEP project Dischma Marita VOS; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of; The PEP project: An introduction, Marita VOS; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of; Community approaches in crisis management: A desk study Jenni HYVARINEN; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of; A toolbox for Crisis Management and Communication Anne-Marie VAN HET ERVE; Inconnect, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Technology options in Crisis Future epidemics of malaria: the potential of climate change induced malaria and its potential mitigation in Sri Lanka 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Chair Speakers by a roads provider Communication Adrian Robert GLOOR; ASTRA, Switzerland; Prevention of major accidents in road transportation Matti HAATAJA; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of and Helen T. SULLIVAN; Rider University, United States of America; Technology options in Crisis Communication 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Speakers Session: Critical Infrastructures I Seehorn John ZEPPOS; COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A., Greece, Hellenic Republic Asimiyu Mohammed JINADU; Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, Federal Republif of Christian KELLERHALS; Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO), Switzerland; Strategic risk management of dangerous goods Milad ZAMANIFAR; Islamic Azad University -South Tehran branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Session: “Taking preparedness seriously” – Revisiting the gaps and challenges in linking early warning and timely response between community and government levels Measuring performance functionality of roads after earthquake Flüela Stephan HUPPERTZ; Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Germany, Federal Republic of Melgabal CAPISTRANO; Malteser International, Germany; Bridging sustainably the last mile Philippe ARNOLD; FEDRO, Switzerland; Risk concept for natural hazards on motorway in Niloofar SADEGHI KOMJANI; Young researchers Club, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Risk assessment of Session organized by Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) the buried fuel pipelines in the City of Kermanshah, Iran Switzerland William Gene CORLEY; CTLGroup, United States of America; USA building code changes resulting from 9/11 attacks connectivity in India and Myanmar Alexander RUDLOFF; German Research Centre for Geosciences - GFZ; GITEWS - The German Contribution to the Indonesian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning system: experiences and lessons learned 16:10-16:40 Coffee break Hilton HERNANDO; Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration 42 43
  • DETAILed Programme Tuesday 28. Aug. 2012 16:40-18:10 Room Plenary session 6: Urban risks and Resilience Davos Cities concentrate people and their assets. They are major drivers of political, economic, financial, technological and cultural change. Cities stand for progress and prosperity, and for this reason they attract large numbers of rural people and concentrate them in urban environments. At the same time, their variety, density and complexity are inherently sensitive to disturbance, which brings unexpected political, social, financial and environmental implications. Urbanization is a trend that leads to massive flows of people into informal settlements, many of which expand into hazard-prone areas, often without the measures needed to bring the hazards under control. Moreover, climate change will exacerbate this problem. Most of the today’s mega-cities are located in coastal areas, which are additionally vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surges. It is the city authorities’ most challenging task to balance risks against opportunities to secure social welfare and human well-being. This implies that all kinds of risks have to be identified, analysed and managed in a process that must be integrative. Regarding crises and disasters, to overcome these situations, resilient systems, organisations and procedures have to be put in place. This session will focus on questions of how to implement a holistic, risk analysis and assessment approach in cities so as to improve the resilience of their physical, social, economic and ecological systems. Panellists in the session will consider what ‘resilient’ means in the context of large cities and how the emerging risk scene should determine the priorities for integrative risk management. DETAILed Programme Tuesday 28. Aug. 2012 financial risks, the global risk landscape is changing rapidly. Risk analysis and risk management have become truly global issues at the very core of society. It is evident that any meaningful attempt to understand and deal with modern risks will have to address various social, cultural and ethical dimensions and must also look at risk in a historical perspective so as to learn from past experiences. Therefore, the perspective must be broadened and deepened to embrace the humanities and social sciences. This should be part of an increasingly interdisciplinary approach to the processes of risk analysis, assessment, management, transfer and communication. Such an approach will involve the entire global risk community, composed of researchers, educators, policy-makers and practitioners. This Open Forum will address the multi-faceted nature of today’s global risk landscape and its phenomenology. It will discuss a wide variety of societal, cultural and ethical components and aspects. In particular, panelists will highlight the nature of the interaction between people, their environment, their culture, and risks. Historical and case-based perspectives will be added to the discussion. The Open Forum aims to contribute to current trends in public debate about risk and help identify solutions, including political ones. Stefan Wolfgang PICKL; Professor, Chair for Operations Research COMTESSA, Department of Computer Science, Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany, Federal Republic of Panellists Alice BALBO; Global Adaptation Coordinator and “Resilient Cities”- Project Manager, ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Bonn, Germany Craig DUNCAN; Senior Information Management Officer, Information Management Unit, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland Jack HARRALD; Professor and Director a.i. Center for Community Security and Resilience, Virginia Tech, Arlington, USA Nivedita HARAN; Dr., Secretary of State Disaster Management Authority, Kerala, India H.E. Ms. Ama I. PEPPLE; Federal Minister of Land, Housing and Urban Development Abuja, Nigeria Ortwin RENN, Professor and Chair, Environmental Sociology and Technology Assessment, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany Hamzeh SHAKIB; Professor, Tarbait Modares University, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Rebublic of Carmen VOGT; Policy Advisor for Urban Development, German Development Cooperation (GIZ) GmbH, Eschborn, Germany, Republic of 18:10-18:30 Room Poster reception 18:30-19:15 Workshop: GIS for Disaster Management Room Convenor Dischma Jeff BARANYI; ESRI, United Kingdom 18:30-19:15 Room Chair Chair Speakers Edgar GRANDE; Professor, Chair for Comparative Policy Analysis, University of Munich, and Board Member, Munich Center on Governance, Germany, Federal Republic of H.E. Ms Maria MUTAGAMBA; Minister of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, Kampala, Uganda Anthony OLIVER-SMITH; Professor University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America Louis PAULY; Professor, Canada Research Chair in Globalization and Governance and Professor of Political Science, University of Toronto Christoph STUECKELBERGER; Professor, Dr., Executive Director and Founder Globethics.net, Geneva, Switzerland Bron TAYLOR; Professor, University of Forida, Gainesville, United States of America Open Stage: Launch of the Handbook for Local Government Leaders in Farsi, Chinese, Spanish, Russian and French Davos 18:10-19:30 James Herbert WILLIAMS; Dean, DU Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver, Denver, United States of America Panellists Chair Chair Session: Public private partnership approaches Flüela Stephan SCHRECKENBERG; Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd., Switzerland Haresh C. SHAH; Stanford University and Risk Management Solutions, United States of America Sara BOUCHON; Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of; Enhancing regional resilience Workshop organized by ESRI to cope with critical infrastructure disruptions: the public-private partnership experience in Lombardy Region, Italy Gavin John LOVE; WorleyParsons, United States of America; Old issues, new approaches - public private partnerships for effective recovery and reconstruction Makarand HASTAK; Purdue University, United States of America; Risk for financial agencies in providing affordable disaster insurance to developing countries Anna KINGSMILL-VELLACOTT; Consortium for the Built Environment, United Kingdom; Can the PFI model mitigate risk in non-infrastructure procurement? 19:30-21:30 Room Plenary session 7: Open forum on Risk and Society Davos Chaired and supported by the Rachel Carson Centre (RCC), Munich, Germany Today’s global risks are highly complex and are characterized by great levels of interdependency and uncertainty. Whether one deals with natural disasters and extreme events, climate or other environmental change, technological risks and impacts, energy security or economic and 44 45
  • DETAILed Programme wednesday 29. Aug. 2012 DETAILed Programme wednesday 29. Aug. 2012 Reza BATHAEE; INDM Conference, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Uncoordinated Structural Development Wednesday 29. Aug. 2012 7:30-18:00 8:30-10:00 Workshop: Ubiquitous technology to facilitate preparedness, practice, and situational awareness before, during, and after disasters in megacities in Iran; a Factor hindering optimal performance of rescue forces in crisis response phase Registration Workshop organized by Rider University and University of Jyväskylä Room Convenors 8:30-10:00 Dischma Helen T SULLIVAN; Rider University, United States of America Markku T HÄKKINEN; University of Jyväskylä, Finland, Republic of 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Chair Speakers new UN-Habitat’s initiative Feng KONG; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Preliminary study of the relationship between new risk Session: European critical infrastructures: which analysis framework for supporting effective decision making? factors and traditional risk factors - taking the relationship between the population urbanization and natural disasters in China’s county-level units for example Romeu VICENTE; University of Aveiro, Portugal; Vulnerability assessment of urban building stock: a hierarchic approach Guoyi HAN; Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, Kingdom of; Enhancing urban resilience to extreme waters: The WASH and RESCUE Initiative Anup KARANTH; TARU Leading Edge, India, Republic of; Tale of two cities: developing city reliance strategies under climate change scenarios for Indore and Surat, India Patricia ALARCÓN; Institute for Research on Risk Management. INIGER. Morelia, México; Building a safe municipality Morelia, Michoacàn, Méxiko Ajay R. GOVALE; United Way of Mumbai, India, Republic of; Experiences of working for improving state of community based disaster preparedness in Mumbai city Session organized by the Joint Research Centre Room Chair Speakers Flüela Georgios GIANNOPOULOS; Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of Georgios GIANNOPOULOS; Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of; A resilience based analysis framework for critical infrastructures protection Thomas MÜNZBERG; Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Nuclear and Power Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of; Critical infrastructure disruptions: a generic system dynamic approach for decision support Sergio OLIVERO; SiTI - Istituto Superiore sui Sistemi Territoriali per l’Innovazione, Italy, Republic of; Security and safety of cross-border infrastructure Tim PRIOR; Center for Security Studies, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; Decision making for resilience in critical infrastructure governance 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Speakers Session: A converging vision of resilience building between the private sector and civil society Sertig Andrew MITCHELL; Disaster Risk Management Consultant, France Marcus OXLEY; Global Network for Disaster Reduction UK, United Kingdom; Building Resilient 10:00-10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Room Plenary session 8.1: Global risks - An integrated Governance Approach Davos Nations and Communities Otto KOCSIS; Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, Switzerland; Building Resilient Business Andrew MITCHELL; Disaster Risk Management, France; Private sector-civil society partnership Session: Climate change, migration and displacement (RCC) Seehorn Uwe LÜBKEN; Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Germany, Federal Republic of Anja MEUTSCH; University Cologne, Germany; The Protection of environmental refugees through international public law Andreas RECHKEMMER; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland; Social Perspectives on Land Degradation and Desertification: The Case of Migration and Conflict Giacomo PARRINELLO; Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, LMU, Germany; From displacements to migrations: the earthquake of Messina (1908) and the earthquake of the Belice Valley (1968) Eric Anthony DES MARAIS; University of Denver, United States of America; Developing best practices for the resettlement of environmental migrants: the next step Supported by Beijing Normal University (BNU) and the International Risk Governance Project (IRP-P) The governance of global systemic risks needs to focus on a community of multiple institutions and disciplines, including natural scientists, social scientists, engineers, policy makers, practitioners and educators from around the world. It ought to be truly integrative, especially in the face of the ever more complex, inter-connected and cascading risks that society faces. The panel will address all of these issues. It will present experiences and case studies from various countries, and will identify new approaches to integrated risk management, with emphasis on good governance. The global risk community must develop and apply innovative tools and methods, including theoretical, mathematical and computational tools as well as enhanced management approaches. These must foster good decision-making processes and practical intervention against global, systemic and complex risks, and to reduce the effects of large-scale disasters around the globe. This panel will address all of these issues. Six main themes can be identified for discussion, research and application: the role of social-ecological systems; the role of scenarios, models and modeling; transitions into and out of an emergency state; early warning systems; and the value of paradigms and comparisons among cases. opportunities for resilience building 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Speakers Session: Risk in urban areas Sanada 1 Robert MUIR-WOOD; RMS Ltd, United Kingdom Jiayuan YE; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of Ansa MASAUD; UN-Habitat, Nairobi, Kenya; Understanding and Measuring Urban Resilience: A Andreas RECHKEMMER; Professor, Chief Science and Policy Advisor, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Davos, Switzerland. Session: Critical infrastructures II Wisshorn Daniel KULL; World Bank, Switzerland John HANDMER; RMIT University, Australia Sakineh MOHAMMADI; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), Iran, Islamic Republic of; Management of the continuity services in water infrastructure (case study: Panellists Edgar GRANDE; Professor, Chair for Comparative Policy Analysis at the University of Munich (LMU) and Board Member of the Munich Center on Governance (MCG), Munich, Germany Carlo JAEGER; Professor for Economy, PIK Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, Federal Republic of Sander VAN DER LEEUW; Dean & Professor, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Phoenix, United States of America Michael J. MANFREDO; Professor and Department Head, Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO, USA Diana MANGALAGIU; Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford United Kingdom, and Professor of Strategy at Reims Management School, Reims, France Peijun SHI; Professor Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, People’s Republic of Fatemeh SALEH; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran; The role of emergency transportation network in crisis management Jeannette SIEBER; European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER), Germany, Federal Republic of; 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Chair Speakers Chair 10:30-12:00 Room Plenary session 8.2: Disasters, Environment and Migration Aspen emergency drinking water management in Tehran metropolitan) Peter BURGHERR; Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerland; Comparative risk assessment of energy technologies in the context of energy security and sustainability Alida SALEH; Exp Services Inc., Canada; Sustainable reconstruction of critical infrastructure Maximilian BROCK; 4flow AG, Germany, Federal Republic of; A comparison of regular and disrupted operations for route planning in freight transportation Spatio-temporal analyses of the impacts of extreme weather events on renewable energies and advancing local decision-making in climate mitigation concepts 46 Supported by the Rachel Carson Centre (RCC), Munich, Germany In recent years there has been a significant world-wide increase in high consequence disasters, extreme events associated with climate change, environmental degradation and ecosystem failure. Too often, poverty, social under-development and fragile statehood further aggravate 47
  • DETAILed Programme wednesday 29. Aug. 2012 these impacts by increasing the vulnerability of people and socio-economic systems. They thus contribute to the emergence of humanitarian crises. Moreover, through forced migration, social vulnerability and humanitarian crises have contributed to a dramatic change in regional and global mobility patterns, which has already become one of the major effects of the ongoing integration of the world economy. Changing mobility patterns, especially the forced ones, often lead to an erosion of human security in both the countries of origin and the target nations. Political instruments have so far provided inadequate responses to these issues. Hence, there is a need for effective and sustainable global governance of labor mobility, and of displacement and forced migration, especially when disasters, climate change and environmental risks are involved. The current situation suggests that these issues have not been adequately discussed in society at large, and have not been fully understood in interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary ways. History, culture, anthropology and ethics are among the social and human disciplines that have a strong potential to contribute to the debate. There is an urgent need to move the discussion to a new plane and help it inform global decision-making processes. Chair Bron TAYLOR; Professor University of Forida, Gainesville, United States of America Panellists Jörn BIRKMANN; Dr., Head of Section, United Nations University Institute for Envrionmenat and Human Security, Bonn, Germany, Federal Republic of Eric DES MARAIS; Adjunct Faculty Graduate School of Social Work University of Denver, Denver, USA Uwe LÜBKEN; Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, Munich, Germany Franz MAUELSHAGEN; Deputy Director, Kulturwissenschaftliches Institut KWI, Essen, Germany Anthony OLIVER-SMITH; Professor University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America H.E. Ms. Ama I. PEPPLE; Federal Minister of Land, Housing and Urban Development Abuja, Nigeria Roger S. PULWARTY; Dr., Director, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, United States of America Room Workshop: Collectors, coordinators and directors - Innovation in the management of disasters 13:00-14:30 Session: Rio+20 and The Future of Sustainability and Disaster Risk Reduction Room Chair Chair Speakers Aspen Karl-Otto ZENTEL; DKKV, Germany, Republic of Andreas RECHKEMMER; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Annegret THIEKEN; University of Potsdam and DKKV, Germany, Federal Republic of Jörn BIRKMANN; United Nations University (UNU-EHS), Germany, Federal Republic of Bron TAYLOR; University of Florida, United States of America Joao RIBEIRO; General Director, National Institute for Disaster Management, Mozambique 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Climate change: impacts, preparedness and adaptation Wisshorn Adolfo MASCARENHAS; LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of Man Cheung CHUNG; Zayed University, United Arab Emirates Itay FISCHHENDLER; Hebrew University, Israel, State of; The impact of uncertainties and risks on 12:00-12:20 Room Convenors 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers Workshop organized by WorleyParsons and Miyamoto International Dischma Gavin John LOVE; WorleyParsons, United States of America Kit MIYAMOTO; Miyamoto International, Inc., United States of America Session supported by DKKV and GIZ cooperation and conflict in transboundary water management Niels HOLTHAUSEN; Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in Switzerland Tim DONOVAN; Met Office, United Kingdom; Weather aware, climate prepared Adolfo Caridade MASCARENHAS; LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of; Climate change, natural resources, institution and the value of research from a global to a local perspective in Mwanga district Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania Yung-ming CHEN; National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, Republic of China; The climate change impact and adaptation strategy on disaster in Taiwan YunYun JIN; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes & Resource Ecology Beijing, China, People’s Republic of; Diagnosis of climate-related risks by using a Bayesian updating method – a Davos Dialogues: Urban risks and resilience Foyer C1 David ALEXANDER; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland 13:00-14:30 Peijun SHI; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of Lunch break 12:30-12:50 Location Moderator and Algorithms for Integrated Risk Governance Open Stage: The Colorado Wildfires 2012: Exposing the risk of re-rural migration in the Western U.S. by Michael Manfredo Davos 12:00-13:00 DETAILed Programme wednesday 29. Aug. 2012 case study of summer temperature in China Roanne VAN VOORST; UvA, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Coping with floods in a riverbank- settlement in Jakarta, Indonesia; An interdisciplinary approach to human actor’s heterogeneous risk-strategies 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Ecosystem based approaches and engineering measures Sanada 1 Radhika MURTI; International Union for Conservation of Nature, Switzerland Frank GRAF; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland Hari Krishna NIBANUPUDI; International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of; Land use change and human health in the Eastern Himalayas: an adaptive ecosystem Noralene Menchavez UY; Kyoto University, Japan; An ecosystem-based resilience analysis of Session: Integrated risk assessment: what kind of multi-risk analysis to support the risk reduction decision-making process? Infanta, Quezon, Philippines Session organized by Risk Governance Solutions Sam.S.L HETTIARACHCHI; University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Investigating the performance of coastal ecosystems for hazard mitigation Daniel TOBLER; GEOTEST AG, Switzerland; Hazard management in a debris flow affected area – Spreitgraben, Switzerland Flüela Carmelo DIMAURO; RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of Sara BOUCHON; RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of Kevin Michael FLEMING; German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany, Federal Republic of; Jennifer K. POUSSIN; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Impact of climate change, land use change and residential Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX project Nathalie MARÇOT; BRGM, France; The multirisk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGM Luigi BRUSAMOLINO; CISM, CRISC; Societal Security – the new standard ISO 22301 for Business Continuity Management Marcello FORTE; AXA Matrix Risk Consultants, Italy, Republic of; Risk engineering decision tools for risk management support Sara BOUCHON; Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of; User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process 14:30-14:40 Break 13:00-14:30 Session: Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world 14:40-16:10 Session: The benefits of standardisation in reducing seismic risk Room Chair Speakers Sertig Peijun SHI; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of Norio OKADA; Kyoto University, Japan Qian YE; IHDP-IRG Project; Too much money and too little money: lessons learned from recent Room Chair Chair Speakers Session organized by the Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP global disasters Armin HAAS; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Xiaobing HU; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Ripple-Spreading Models 48 mitigation measures on damage and risk assessment Sandrine GLATRON; LIVE-CNRS, France; Protection against muddy floods: perception of one protection system (fascines) for local actors in Alsace (France) Garry DE LA POMERAI; VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom; Environmental and ecological solutions 21st century technology Session organized by the Joint Research Centre Dischma Fabio Federico TAUCER; Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of Artur PINTO; European Commission, Italy, Republic of Domenico GIARDINI; ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Harmonization of seismic hazard assessment: the SHARE example Kyriazis PITILAKIS; Aristotelio Panepistimio Thessaloniki, Greece, Hellenic Republic; The importance of a systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of complex urban, regional, national or pan- 49
  • DETAILed Programme wednesday 29. Aug. 2012 European systems comprising buildings, transportation, lifelines, utility networks and critical facilities Artur PINTO; European Commission - DG JRC, Italy, Republic of; The role of the European Standards for Construction (Eurocodes) for earthquake risk mitigation Fabio Federico TAUCER; Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of; Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe Directive (INSPIRE): contribution towards seismic risk and loss assessment 14:40-16:10 Session: Improved Risk information to support sound policy/decision making processes – The UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme, GRIP’s experience Session organized by UNDP-GRIP Room Chair Speakers Sanada 2 Carlos Anibal VILLACIS; UNDP-GRIP Jo SCHEUER; UNDP-BCPR José Guadalupe OSUNA MILLÁN; Government Baja California State, Mexico Regina BELOW; CRED, Switzerland Jiahong WEN; GRIP-CERAM, Shanghai, China, People’s Republic of Amod DIXIT; NSET-Nepal, Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Speakers Session: Risk, society and culture Sertig Ortwinn RENN; University of Stuttgart, Germany, Federal Republic of Abass MUKASA; Kampala Capital City Authority, Uganda, Republic of; Cultural Role in Risk and Disaster Management, A case study from Uganda, Africa Sean MURPHY; Lootok, United States of America; Risk shrink: exploring the psychology of risk Ram Sateesh PASUPULETI; Luleå University of Technology Luleå, Sweden, Kingdom of; Towards an interdisciplinary framework for understanding the role of culture in the post disaster reconstruction process John HANDMER; RMIT University, Australia; Making and unmaking human security: the limits of state power in reducing risk and creating resilience Briony Clare TOWERS; RMIT University, Australia; A critical pedagogy of risk: empowering children with knowledge and skills for DRR Man Cheung CHUNG; Zayed University, United Arab Emirates; Posttraumatic stress and psychiatric co-morbidity following bombing in Iraq: the role of shattered world assumptions and altered self-capacities DETAILed Programme wednesday 29. Aug. 2012 Aglaia PETSETI; University of Pireaus, Greece, Hellenic Republic; Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece Rajagopalan DEVABALAN; CARE, India, Republic of; Bundling of risks for disaster proofing Mario WILHELM; Swiss Reinsurance Ltd; Lessons from various microinsurance schemes and key success factors 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Chair Speakers study in an alpine meadow (Davos, Switzerland) compared to wind tunnel experiments with live plants Pane STOJANOVSKI; Asia Risk Centre, Inc; Agricultural risk micro-insurance product for Mozambique Umma HABIBA; Kyoto University, Japan; Enhancing farmer’s resilience toward droughts: perspective from northwestern region of Bangladesh Pashupati Nath KOIRALA; Government, Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of; Livelihood improvement of the poorest farmer through degraded forest management in Nepal 16:10-16:40 Coffee break 16:40-17:25 Room Keynote: Supporting resilient systems for one health, food security and nutrition: participatory risk reduction at critical interfaces Davos David NABARRO; Special Representative of the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition, and the UN System Influenza Coordinator 17:25-18:55 Room Plenary 9: Risk in Agriculture Davos Supported, organized and chaired by the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland Farmers are round-the-clock risk managers. Worldwide, they face a wide range of risks that threaten their livelihoods and the food security of those whom they supply. This is particularly true of the estimated 450 million smallholders in developing countries. Major risks in agriculture include those associated with weather (e.g. drought, rainfall at the wrong time, and winds that carry pathogens), crop pests and diseases (throughout the growing cycle and after harvest), policy and governance issues (e.g. barrier tariffs, inappropriate subsidies, neglect of research and infrastructure, and the effects of warfare), environmental problems, crop losses, biodiversity losses and social changes in rural areas. Many of these risks remain ignored or unnoticed by large sections of the population, notably in OECD countries. Closely tied to the risks that farmers face are agricultural risks that threaten society. In many regions, food security is at best uncertain and transient. Where food is physically available, price increases may rapidly make it inaccessible to poorer families. As well as creating malnutrition and reducing human potential, inflation-induced food insecurity may lead to civil strife. Rather than allow agricultural risks to threaten food security, it is vital that farmers have access to the necessary tools, technologies and training to enable them reduce these risks. In many cases, this would avoid the need for classic humanitarian responses such as food aid. This plenary session examines the nature and causes of selected risks associated with agriculture. Speakers will focus on environmental problems, pests, diseases and price volatility. Mohammad Reza FARZAD BEHTASH; Tabriz Islamic Art University - Research & Planning Center of Tehran Municipality, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Considering social and cultural dimension of resilient cities 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Scenarios and models in DRR Seehorn Angelika WIRTZ; Munich Reinsurance Company, Germany, Federal Republic of Bernhard M. HÄMMERLI; University of Lucerne, Switzerland Sidney COUPET; Doctors United For Haiti (DUFH), United States of America; A long term building capacity model that prepares for effective disaster relief Jiayuan YE; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network Amir AZIZI; Municipality of Mashhad, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The planning and implementation of earthquake scenario in megacities Mehdi NOJAVAN; University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The role of land use planning in Chair Marco FERRONI; Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland Panellists André BATIONO; Senior Resource Mobilization Officer at AGRA, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, Nairobi , Kenya Mike BUSHELL; Principal Scientific Advisor, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland Marco FERRONI; Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland TBC; (price volatility) 18:55-19:15 Room Open stage: International Year of Water Cooperation, 2013: Mainstreaming Water Cooperation into Water related Disaster Risk Reduction by Sulton Rahimov Davos 18:55-20:00 Poster reception the disaster risk reduction Nikolaus ARNOLD; University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, Republic of; Fuel cycle risks imposed by a nuclear growth scenario Sergey KABANIKHIN; Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Russian Federation; 3D-simulation of integrated natural and man-made hazards 14:40-16:10 Session: Special Swiss Re session on Financial Tools for Disaster Risk Management Room Chair Speakers Wisshorn Esther BAUR; Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd, Switzerland Guillermo COLLICH; Inter-American Development Bank, United States of America; Regional Organized by Swiss Re insurance facility in Central America – an integrated approach to risk management and risk transfer Dang The VINH; Vina Re, Vietnam, Republic of; Boosting agricultural production and stabilizing farmers’ income through index insurance in Vietnam 50 Session: Agriculture, land degradation and drought Sanada 1 Yuan ZHOU; Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland Frank GRAF; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland Frank GRAF; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland; A wind erosion case 51
  • DETAILed Programme wednesday 29. Aug. 2012 Room Convenor Workshop: GIS for Disaster Management Workshop organized by ESRI Dischma Jeff BARANYI; ESRI, United Kingdom 19:00-19:45 Room Chair Chair Speakers Session: Business continuity management Flüela William Gene CORLEY; CTLGroup, United States of America Gavin John LOVE; WorleyParsons, United States of America John ZEPPOS; COSMOTE Mobile Telecommunications S.A., Greece; Continuing operations in a 19:15-20:00 DETAILed Programme Thursday 30. Aug. 2012 Thursday 30. Aug. 2012 7:30-18:00 8:30-10:00 Room Convenors Speakers Registration Workshop: Towards a safer world: a whole-of-society approach to disaster preparedness Workshop organized by the World Food Programme Aspen David NABARRO; UN, Switzerland Chadia WANNOUS; UNSIC, Switzerland Amir ABDULLAH; World Food Program, Italy; Mainstreaming Pandemic Preparedness into modern and efficient manner Multi-Hazard Readiness plan: York University business continuity planning toolkit for small businesses Emil AGUSTIONO; Coordinating Ministry for People’s Welfare, Indonesia, Republic of; Building David Ross HARPER; World Health Organization, Switzerland; World Health Organization: Sean MURPHY; Lootok, United States of America; Controversy and crisis management Ali ASGARY; York University, Canada; Enabling small businesses to develop their business continuity health security preparedness national pandemic preparedness through strengthening non health sectors: Indonesia’s lesson learnt Matthias SCHMALE; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), Switzerland; The relevance of Integrative Risk Management to RCRC programming Stephen C. ALDRICH; bio-era, United States of America; How to motivate private sector participants to invest in mitigating and adapting to systemic risks 8:30-10:00 Room Chair Speakers Session: Recent and future developments in EU Security Research. From a counter-terrorism focus towards a wider support for natural and accidental large scale crisis or disasters. All hazard approach Session organized by the European Commission Dischma Tristan Daniel SIMONART; European Commission, Belgium, Kingdom of Peter AMBS; INTERPOL, France; FASTID project - FAST and efficient international disaster victim IDentification Heiko WERNER; German Federal Agency for Technical Relief, Germany, Federal Republic of; Security research from an end user perspective Hans-Christian GRAN; FFI, Norway; Preparedness of CBRNE incident management within the EU Delilah Helen AL KHUDAIRY; European Commission, Italy, Republic of; Crisis Management: Needs, Gaps and Opportunities Chaim RAFALOWSKI; Magen David Adom, Israel, State of; Crisis management and security research – an end user perspective 8:30-10:00 Session: Disaster risk reduction in the Hindu Kush – Himalayan Region Room Chair Flüela Hari Krishna NIBANUPUDI, ICIMOD, Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of 8:30-10:00 Session: The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ science Session organized by International center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) Session organized by VVSC FZ LLC UAE Room Chair 10:00-10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Room 52 Sertig Garry DE LA POMERAI; VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom Plenary session 10: Linking One Health and the Hyogo Framework for Action Davos One Health is a broad umbrella concept that deals with the many interactions between human, animal and environmental health in close relation to agricultural production and the safety and security of food. It also covers resource depletion, climate change, and global change. One Health includes public health, environmental stewardship, management of life-sustaining resources (such as fresh water), the protection of endangered species, the maintenance of an ecological balance, and general sustainable development. It supports a relationship between humans and other living species that minimizes the risks of disease transmission and safeguards the health of all life forms. One Health interacts with fields such as climate change impact analysis, risk and disaster management, disaster medicine and resource economics. One Health’s integrative, risk-based approach shows many similarities with the already implemented Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) process within the United Nations system. HFA addresses at least some of the topics mentioned under the One Health umbrella, but from a different perspective. As an example, climate change may have a substantial impact on future health patterns, including the impact of extreme weather such as floods, excessive rainfall, 53
  • DETAILed Programme Thursday 30. Aug. 2012 DETAILed Programme Thursday 30. Aug. 2012 Max WYSS; WAPMERR, Switzerland; Estimating casualties in future earthquakes for preparedness: probabilistically or deterministically Paul KAILIPONI; University of Manchester, United Kingdom; Using dasymetrics to address the aggregation error in spatial data: a multi-criteria approach for flood vulnerability assessment using spatial data Joachim Franz DREIBACH; Fire Watch international AG, Switzerland; Early detection, surveillance of wildfires and the integration into fire management systems Francesco GAETANI; GEO Group on Earth Observations, Switzerland; Natural disaster mitigation and earth observations: a Group on Earth Observations perspective heatwaves and cold snaps. Moreover, lifestyle and nutrition patterns may be the cause of cause increases in allergic reactions. This session will consider how the developing One Health field can benefit from HFA’s strategic and operational achievements so as to facilitate and accelerate the implementation of processes that benefit human welfare, protect livelihoods and promote sustainable development. Chair Marco FERRARI; Member of the Board of Directors of GRF Davos, Former Chair of the Drafting Committee for the Hyogo Framework for Action, Thun, Switzerland Panellists David HARPER; Special Adviser to the Assistant Director-General for Health Security and Environment, World Health Organization Headquarters WHO, Geneva, Switzerland. Daniel KULL; Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, Geneva Representative of the World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Geneva, Switzerland Virginia MURRAY; Head, Extreme Events and Health Protection, Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom David NABARRO; Special Representative of the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition, and the UN System Influenza Coordinator. Paul OUEDRAOGO; Senior Regional Advisor for Africa, RAMSAR Convention, Gland, Switzerland Cathy WATSON; Livestock Emergency Guidelines and Standards (LEGS) Coordinator, Addis Abbeba, Ethopia James Herbert Williams; Dean and Milton Morris Endowed Chair, Graduate School of Social Work, University of Denver, Denver, USA 12:00-13:00 Davos Dialogues: The One Health paradigm and its context to the HFA Foyer C1 David ALEXANDER; Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland Room Chair Speakers 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Speakers Session: Financing the green transformation: opportunities and challenges ahead risks of water stress in farming by smallholders: examples from India in staple food prices in West Africa Brion DUFFY; Agroscope, Switzerland; Management strategies for invasive plant disease: Fire blight, a global threat to pome fruit production and agro-forestry ecosystems 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Chair Speakers (DITAC) “Embedded health systems analysis”: A framework for effective disaster mitigation & response Mohammad Hossein RAJAEI; I.R Iran National Institute of Health Research, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2012-2025 roadmap of I.R.Iran’s Health Disaster Management Nikki BLACKWELL; ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of; A comparison of functional outcomes at one year between two cohorts of patients with extremity limb trauma following the Haitian earthquake in 2010 Anwarul ABEDIN; Kyoto University, Japan; Safe water adaptability index for salinity, arsenic and drought risk in south-west of Bangladesh A.M. VIENS; Ruhr University, Germany, Federal Republic of; The role of pandemic plans in ethical preparedness and resilience Kirsten Marina LOVELOCK; University of Otago, New Zealand; Occupational health of front line workers responding to earthquakes in New Zealand: workplace cultures- vulnerability, resistance and resilience Session organized by GIZ Session: Monitoring and modelling for risk management Sertig Ali ASGARY; York University, Canada Artur PINTO; European Commission, Italy, Republic of Iain Hay MACINNES; DigitalGlobe, United Kingdom; Informed response via satellite based technologies Wentao YANG; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Identifying landslides using binary logistic regression and landslide detection index techniques Lubna RAFIQ; SUPARCO-Pakistan Space Agency, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of; Satellite application Session: Health within disaster risk reduction Wisshorn Monica Lynn SCHOCH-SPANA; University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, United States of America Christine Marie KENNEY; Edith Cowan University, Australia Philipp FISCHER; Department of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Germany, Federal Republic of; The DITAC Project - Development of a Disaster Training curriculum Samantha WATSON; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Thailand, Kingdom of; Session: “Making the Connection” – Practical experiences on linking disaster disk reduction, climate change adaptation and ecosystem management Joao RIBEIRO; National Disasters Management (INGC), Mozambique Elias MASSICAME; National Disasters Management (INGC), Mozambique Seehorn Yuan ZHOU; Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland Rose GOSLINGA; Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland; Insurance for the John STAATZ; Michigan State University, United States of America; Policies for managing volatility Dischma Diana MANGALAGIU; Oxford University, United Kingdom Qian YE; Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People’s Republic of Diana MANGALAGIU; Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Armin HAAS; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, FederalRepublic of Antonella BATTAGLINI; Renewable Grid Initiative Peter HOPPE; Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, Germany, Federal Republic of James CAMERON Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: new challenges and new insights from the IPCC SREX report and own Studies Ali RIZVI; International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN); Enhancing community resilience for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction – a case study from Cambodia Tran Kim LONG; Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam, Republic of; Integrated management of the mangrove forest ecosystem for improved climate resilience in Vietnam Session organized by Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture Partha R DAS GUPTA; Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland; Addressing Session organised by GSDP & IRGP Flüela Eva Maria WUTTGE; GIZ, Germany, Federal Republic of Thomas PIESCH; German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ): Germany, Republic of Joern BIRKMANN; United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security; Session: Tackling risk in agriculture Rural Smallholder Farmer: Kilimo Salama Lunch break 12:30-12:50 Location Moderator 13:00-14:30 13:00-14:30 Room Chair Speakers Session: Local actions and community empowerment II Sanada 1 Marcus OXLEY; Global Network for Disaster Reduction, United Kingdom Sebastián MARTÍN; City of Santa Cruz Tenerife, Spain, Kingdom of; Participation and reduction of local disasters Sonia A. RAWAL; Asia Risk Centre, Inc; Mitigation of global volatility of food supply/demand risk through innovations in crop insurance schemes Mohammed Salim UDDIN; University of Manitoba, Canada; Disaster risk and vulnerability in coastal plains of Bangladesh: observations on human responses and local resilience to the effects of cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh Jason VON MEDING; Queen’s University Belfast, United Kingdom; A community-driven approach to material management in post-disaster reconstruction Bijan YAVAR; Millennium Enlightened Planners Engineering Company (MEPCO); A modern view to disaster management, concentrating on people with dynamic settlements (nomads) as a sustainable development standard Gutu Tesso BOKA; World Vision International, Ethiopia, Federal Democratic Republic of; A time series analysis of climate variability and its impact on food production in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia for non-structural flood risk management in Pakistan 54 55
  • DETAILed Programme Thursday 30. Aug. 2012 14:30-14:40 Break 14:40-16:10 DETAILed Programme Thursday 30. Aug. 2012 Workshop: The future of alerting the public – Discussion of human behavior, information expectations and technology use in an intercultural context Room Convenor Speakers Speakers Workshop organized by the German Aerospace Center Dischma Cristina PARRAGA NIEBLA; German Aerospace Center (DLR) Cristina PÁRRAGA-NIEBLA; German Aerospace Center (DLR); Cross-border alerting Michael KLAFFT; Fraunhofer Institute for Open Communication Systems, Germany, Federal Republic of; Technology use aspects of alerting systems Kerstin DRESSEL; sine Institut gGmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of; Taking into account socio- cultural factors to improve alerting strategies 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Speakers Session: Integrative flood risk management Flüela Markus ZIMMERMANN; SDC, Switzerland Ayman Hassan AL-MOMANI; University of Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of; Management of flood risks at the city of Tabuk Philip BUBECK; German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany; Are private flood mitigation measures successfully contributing to contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany? Damien SERRE; EIVP, France; Analyzing the urban functions to prioritize urban flood resilient actions Christian WILLI; Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; Flood risk management with limited data – case study Han River, China Jian FANG; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; A preliminary study of flash flood in Hunan Province, China - spatio-temporal characteristics, trends and risk management Doracie Baldovino ZOLETA-NANTES; Crawford School of Public Policy, RMAP, College of Asia and the Pacific-The Australian National University, Australia; Chronicling and mapping the physical and social components of the 2009 flood disaster and the disaster risk reduction initiatives of urban poor communities in Metro Manila, Philippines 14:40-16:10 Sertig Anil MISHRA; UNESCO, France Eugene STAKHIV; International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management Johannes CULLMANN; Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Germany, Federal Republic of Faiq BILLAL; International Islamic Organization for Education, Science and Culture Organisation, Morocco, Kingdom of Kuniyoshi TAKEUCHI; International Centre for Water Hazard Anil MISHRA; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Gérard BONNIS; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Djillali BENOUAR; Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, Algeria, People’s Democratic Republic of Room Chair Speakers 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Chair Speakers Plenary session 11: The Future of Integrative Risk Management Davos Risks and disasters are having an increasingly profound effect on global society. In a world of global markets and inter-regional supply chains, of financial destabilization, resource depletion, water scarcity, environmental degradation, and social inequity, the impact of disasters is likely to worsen in the future. Are we prepared for the global impacts caused by disasters? In order to meet the challenges, tools and mechanism need to be in place in order to allow effective risk reduction and disaster management. The panelists will discuss, among other things, the following questions: How can one make prevention more attractive? Is a “new humanitarianism” needed, in which the agenda is expanded to include governance, the promotion of livelihoods, the provision of security, social protection, and other activities related to development? How does Rio+20 affect DRR? How can risk management be moved forward after 2015 and the end of the first application period for the Hyogo Framework for Action, 2005-2015? Chair John D. MACOMBER; Professor, Senior Lecturer in Finance and Real Estate and Gloria A. Dauten Real Estate Fellow, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA Panellists Esther BAUR; Director of Communications and Head of Issue Management & Messages, Swiss Re, Zurich, Switzerland Marco FERRONI; Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Basel, Switzerland Walter FUST; former Ambassador Swiss Government, Hessigkofen, Switzerland Rasmus HELTBERG; World Development Report 2014 on Risk, Uncertainty and Crisis, The World Bank, Washington, U.S.A. Nance KYLOH; US Agency for International Development, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, US Mission Geneva, Switzerland H.E. Ms. Ama I. PEPPLE; CFR, Federal Minister of Land, Housing and Urban Development Abuja, Nigeria Sulton RAHIMOV,; First Deputy Minister of Melioration and Water Resources, Dushanbe, Tajikistan 18:10-18:40 Room 19:00-23:00 Closing ceremony Davos Conference dinner, Berghotel, Schatzalp Featuring Music: A Trio of young artists studying at the Konservatorium in Winterthur will entertain you with their outstanding music during a memorable final event of the IDRC Davos 2012. Claudia BACH; United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNUEHS), Germany, Federal Republic of; Critical infrastructure vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction reduction program for lifelines in the megacity of Tehran, Iran 14:40-16:10 Room Chair Chair 56 Session: Medical emergencies Wisshorn James J. JAMES; American Medical Association, United States of America Olivier HAGON; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Switzerland Sanada 1 Carlos Anibal VILLACIS; UNDP-GRIP Neil BUHNE; UNDP-BCPR José Guadalupe OSUNA MILLÁN; Government Baja California State, Mexico Francis GHESQUIERE; GFDRR Secretariat Angelika WIRTZ; Munich Reinsurance Company Franz STOESSEL; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Rafael VANDYCK; UNDP-Mexico Esteban LEON; UN-Habitat Loy REGO; UNDP-GRIP 16:40-18:10 Room critical infrastructure during protests or civil unrest Marco GRUBER; Gruber Partner AG, Switzerland; Mastering the ante in critical infrastructures – a Swiss approach to visualizing trends, realizing opportunities and defeating threats Jennifer GIROUX; Center Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich; The Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD): announcing a new dataset Hamzeh SHAKIB; Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Proposed seismic risk Session organized by UNDP-GRIP Coffee break Session organized by UNESCO & IHP and co-convened by ICHARM & ICIWaRM Session: Critical infrastructures III Seehorn Nina BECKER; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research- UFZ, Germany, Federal Republic of John HANDMER; RMIT University, Australia Ove Tobias GUDMESTAD; University of Stavanger, Norway, Kingdom of; Disasters in arctic areas Suzanne Naomi BERNIER; SB Crisis Consulting, Canada; Identifying and preparing for threats to Session: The evaluation of UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme – Analyzing the results and findings of a forward looking evaluation process 16:10-16:40 Session: Water security: responses to local, regional, and global challenges Room Chair Speakers 14:40-16:10 Magda W. ROOZE; Impact/Arq Psychotrauma Expert Group, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Development of guidelines for psychosocial support for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear (CBRN) incident Alessandra ROSSODIVITA; San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation, Milan, Italy; The dual use of field hospital in peace time and in war time. The Italian experience of Alpini field hospital during disasters. Michael Kellyn THRALLS; MESH, United States of America; Multi-Agency Surge Tactical Facility (MAST-F) - applicable lessons from a mobile hospital team Nezha KHALLAF; LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France; Medical treatment options and patient preference: the case of the limb-trauma victims of the earthquake in Haiti on January 12, 2010 Nikki BLACKWELL; ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of; Oneyear follow up of care received by a cohort of patients treated with limb amputation following the earthquake in Haiti Friday 31. Aug. 2012 8:45-16:30 Location GRF Davos Business Continuity Conference (see page 17 or http://businescontinuity.idrc.info for more information) Dischma 57
  • Poster Presentation tuesday Poster Presentation tuesday stabilization: an outstanding technology, fully proved in the Iberian area  IASIO, Christian; EURAC, Italy, Republic of; New approaches for integrated monitoring of slopes movements in mountain regions: the Interreg project "SloMove" Poster presentations Tuesday 28 Aug. Education and capacity building Risk financing and sharing  IZADKHAH, Yasamin O.; International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology; Educating preschool  PETSETI, Aglaia; University of Piraeus, Greece, Hellenic Republic; Proposal for a national earthquake insurance PB 001  BANIZAMANLARI, Farhad; Kuritkara Consulting Engineers Co., Iran, Islamic Republic of; Introducing auditing of PB 002   ANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri; Disaster Management Centre of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; B PB 003 PB 004 PB 005 PB 006  ALLIA, Khedidja; USTHB, Algeria, People’s Democratic Republic of; Engineering education and the need to address program for Greece elements and measures of natural crisis management processes as an efficient tool for developing corrective actions  CHINNASWAMY, Kumar; CARE India; Insurance cover for natural disasters  DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan; CARE, India, Republic of; Insurance literacy for micro insurance awareness  NESLIHANOGLU, Serdar; University of Glasgow, United Kingdom; Time-varying beta risk of Turkish industry portfolios: a comparison of GARCH and Kalman filter modelling techniques  GREEN, Colin; Middlesex University, United Kingdom; What do disasters teach us about economics? Integrated seismic risk management  VILLANUEVA HOLM-NIELSEN, Pablo; ALECTIA / MDM, Denmark, Kingdom of; Use of crowdsourcing in post-disaster PB 007  WANG, Xiaoqing; Institute of Earthquake Science, China, People’s Republic of; The seismic vulnerability base on  PARVARESH, Mohammd; Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Iran, Islamic Republic of; The first specialized PB 008 PB 009 PB 010 PB 011 PB 012 PB 013 PB 014 PB 016 PB 017 PB 018 PB 019 MORENO, Daniel; Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, FUNVISIS, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of; PB 113 damage assessment macroeconomic indicators and risk evaluation in Asia  TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan; The University of Melbourne, Australia; Housing reconstruction policies and socio-spatial transformation of the built environment in old fabric of earthquake-affected cities  ZAMANIFAR, Milad; Islamic Azad University -South Tehran branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Development of methodology for post-earthquake reconstruction planning of lifelines  MOGHIMI, Sanam; University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Optimal selection of recovery strategies after earthquakes, considering interdependencies of infrastructures using dynamic Leontief Input-Output Model  HU, Fuyu; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Path selection model and algorithm for emergency evacuation during earthquake disaster  PARK, Ki Jong; National Disaster Management Institute, Ministry of Public Administration and Security, Korea, Republic of; Utilization plan of seismic acceleration monitoring data  KIM, Jin Seon; National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of; Evaluation of natural period depending on the structure system  MIYAMOTO, Kit H.; Miyamoto International, United States of America; Lessons learned from massive damage assessment and reconstruction strategies in 2010 Haiti earthquake  HE, Yongnian; China Earthquake Administration, China, People’s Republic of; Consciousness and knowledge of disaster reduction helps reduction of earthquake disaster  MOHAMMADI, Sakineh; Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Disaster management bases site selection using GIS in Tehran, Iran maneuver of water and wastewater industry of Tehran at earthquake crisis Caracas Seismological Museum: A space to develop an interactive experience between the community and the Venezuelan seismic culture.  MOTA-HERNANDEZ; Universidad autonoma del estado de Mexico, Mexico; Preliminary analysis of the 1985 Mexican earthquake by applying the Management Oversight and Risk Tree children on earthquakes using simulators Preparation of school disaster safety plans and simulation some challenges of the 21st century in terms of training transformation  BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya; Red Crescent Society of Hormozgan Province, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Voluntary communitybased preventive public education (VCBPPE) before the disasters: a model to facilitate and expedite emergency treatment and improvement public health after disasters  LOVE, Gavin John; WorleyParsons, United States of America; Community resilience - expanding grass roots approach to develop capacity and sustainability   ADRI, Seyed Ali; University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Comparative study of rural people’s attitudes B towards risk in an earthquake-prone area: the case of rural high school students and head of households in Avaj County, Qazvin, Iran  GIGLIOTTI, Rosario; Sapienza University of Rome, Italy, Republic of; A development cooperation Erasmus Mundus partnership for capacity building in earthquake mitigation science and higher education  SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki; Kansai University, Japan; Multilayer disaster education through collaboration between a disaster education centre and a local university MITRA, Swati; Micro Insurance Academy, India, Republic of; Capacity building of school children- case study from India   ELGADO, Natalia; University of Southampton, United Kingdom; Assessing inter-agency capital response to D terrorism: adaptive coordination  YAN, Lijun; Shanghai Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Urban security based on IOT   WIRZ, Martin; ETH Zurich, Switzerland; A novel participatory sensing method for monitoring crowd conditions by collecting GPS location traces from pedestrians' mobile phones for real-time crowd management during city-scale mass gathering   ALARCÓN, Patricia; University of Michoacán, Mexico; Land use planning for disaster reduction in Uruapan, Michoacán, México  FEILSTRECKER, Lais Brandao; UFSC, France; Shalstab application to identify the susceptible areas of shallow landslides in Cunha River Watershed, Rio Dos Cedros City, SC, Brazil  MIRMOHAMMAD HOSSEINI, Kiandokht; Social Security Organization, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The effect of community trust in adopting protective measures in Tehran city Risk, society and culture  HEINEMANN, Simone; Ruhr-University Bochum, Germany, Federal Republic of; Ethics and risk in finance  NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna; International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, Republic of; Gender stereotypes and disaster vulnerabilities PB 116  ALARCÓN, Patricia; University of Michoacán, Mexico; The appropriation of the nature and the social construction of the risk in Angangueo, Michoacán, Mexiko redefining Mountain risks snow avalanching in Alborz Mountains, Iran.  PANAHI, Ali; Islamic Azad Univercity; Feasibility studies for optimum establishment of rural at risk of natural disasters  BROIMSHOEVA, Rukhshona; FOCUS Humanitarian, Tajikistan, Republic of; Building resilience and reducing vulnerability through integrated risk management in mountain areas  LAGUNA MEGAL, Luis Miguel; Freelance Consultant, Spain, Kingdom of; Reinforced flexible systems for slope 58 PB 020 PB 021 PB 022 PB 023 PB 025 PB 026 PB 027 PB 028 PB 029 PB 030 PB 031 PB 032 PB 111 Urban risk  ELMI, Mahmoud; Islamic Azad University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Gender and gender identity: the necessity of  ZARE BIDAKI, Rafat; Shahrekord University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Investigating weather parameters affecting PB 024  ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra; San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation, Milan, Italy, Republic of; State and social factors in global disasters: topological scope  PLACHETKA, Uwe; BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, Republic of; The tipping points of socioecological systems: Romans vs. Incas   NUZULIA, Yorsi; Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia, Republic of; The importance of the cultural approach to relocate the survivors of mount Merapi : a case study of survivors of Glagaharjo Community   PB 033 PB 034 PB 035 PB 036 PB 037 PB 038 PB 039 PB 040 PB 041 PB 041 PB 042 PB 044 PB 045 59
  • Poster Presentation WEdnesday Poster Presentation WEdnesday  SUN, Shao; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Features of sea ice disaster in the Bohai Sea in Ecosystem based approaches ABE, Miwa; Kansai University, Japan; Role of thematic resettlement as eco-village in Sri Lanka   SHANG, Yanrui; Hebei Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Study of agricultural drought coping and ecological feedback - taking Hebei Province in North China as an example   D, Md. Abu; Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Geospatial pattern and SYE trend in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh   MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina; Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Assessment effects of River Vegetation Density Index (RVDI) in recognition of damageable areas during torrents PB 046 PB 047 PB 048 PB 049 Flood risks  KAILIPONI, Paul; University of Manchester, United Kingdom; Precautionary evacuation operations using decision analysis: application to catastrophic flood event  VIAVATTENE, Christophe; Middlesex University, United Kingdom; Reframing risk- and responsibility-sharing in flood risk management in England and Austria   GANJEHI, Sajad; Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Evaluating and improving the railway safety against flood, a case study of Tehran  GLATRON, Sandrine; LIVE-CNRS, France; GERIHCO - An interdisciplinary approach to understand the muddy floods risk (Alsace - France)  NAZARIHA, Mehrdad; Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Causes that make developing countries more vulnerable in disasters in the case of flooding PB 050 PB 051 PB 052 PB 054 PB 056 Wednesday 28 Aug. Critical infrastructures  DIMAURO, Carmelo; Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of; Identification of critical infrastructures exposed to natural hazards: the main step towards the impact assessment on regional socio-economic systems  GANJEHI, Sajad; Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The influence of technology transfer management in improving the performance of risk management of natural disaster in rail transportation: a case study in Iran PB 057 PB 059  BALSTER, Andreas; Technical University of Darmstadt, Germany, Federal Republic of; Measures of supply chain risk PB 060   UBECK, Philip; Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, Germany, Federal Republic of; Assessing direct damage and B  KROMP, Wolfgang; University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; Risk of ice shed PB 061 PB 062  MURPHY, Sean; Lootok, United States of America; How to build a BCM Brand PB 063 losses due to the disruption of production processes caused by natural hazards in Europe from wind turbines Disaster and crisis management  YU, Han; Beijing Normal University, China, People’s Republic of; Research on region regularity of disaster chains in Gansu Province China  JOHANSSON, Magnus; Karlstad University, Sweden, Kingdom of; How to measure efficiency in risk prevention? PB 066 PB 067 PB 068  BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna; Institute for Safety, Netherlands, Kingdom of the ; Learning from crisis management exercises: a design science approach to exercise evaluation  ROUSSY, Sandrine; Action contre la Faim, France; Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organizations  MILLER, James Patrick; University of Oregon, United States of America; Reproducing the lakou: the role of vernacular settlement patterns in post-disaster temporary settlements  MARCH, Alan Peter; University of Melbourne, Australia; Building organisational disaster resilience: lessons from Australian bushfire   ANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri; Disaster Management Centre, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; Preparing and B planning in disaster management   OZORGIMAKARANI, Reza Ali; University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; The role of management information B systems to response to crisis management  YAVAR, Bijan; Millennium Enlightened Planners Engineering Company, Iran, Islamic Republic of; SoTech Risks an important context to be taken into consideration   INADU, Asimiyu Mohammed; Federal University of Technology, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; National efforts and J the challenge of disaster in Nigeria   E LA POMERAI, Garry; VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom; Global design compliance and land issues challenges and D regulatory barriers  TETIK, Cigdem; Disaster and Emergency Management, Turkey, Republic of New disaster mangement system in Turkey  SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki; Kansai University, Japan; How specialised research fields of disaster management can be integrated?  YARMOHAMMADIAN, Mohammad Hossein; University of Medical Sciences, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Application of FMEA and HFMEA techniques as risk assessment tools for contingency planning PB 064 PB 069 PB 070 PB 071 PB 072 PB 073 PB 074 PB 075 PB 076 PB 077 PB 078 Local action and community empowerment  KORVENRANTA, Tiina; City of Vantaa, Finland, Republic of; Empowerment of the community after a fire - residents' Business continuity management management PB 065 2010 meeting as psycho-social intervention  AGHABABAEI, Muhammad Taghi; Municipality of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Developing a comprehensive model for disaster resilient community  SCHOCH-SPANA, Monica Lynn; University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, United States of America; Reconstituting community in the aftermath of nuclear terrorism  YILMAZ, Didem Gunes; University, United Kingdom; Rural areas in Turkey and their reasons being vulnerable MITRA, Swati; Micro Insurance Academy, India, Republic of; Community empowerment for effective corporate supply chain logistics in the present economic crisis   Prepardness and early warning KAILIPONI, Paul; University of Manchester, United Kingdom; Inter-model influence diagram analysis using modular PB 079 PB 080 PB 081 PB 082 PB 112 PB 083 ADVERT 60 61
  • Poster Presentation WEdnesday elicitation methods for evacuation decision-making  ROUSSY, Sandrine; Action contre la Faim, France; Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organization  GRANADO, Carolina; Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of; A seismic swarm: a social lab to promote earthquake preparedness  ARPACI, Alexander Duran; University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; Development of a daily fire danger system  WYSS, Max; WAPMERR, Switzerland; The need for developing a culture of earthquake shelters to render early warning useful  DREIBACH, Joachim Franz; Fire Watch International AG, Switzerland; Best practices and new technologies in fire detection and suppression   E LA POMERAI, Garry; VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom; Seismic prediction and real time early warning make a D perfect combination  SULLIVAN, Helen T; Rider University, United States of America; Human preparedness and response to risk: a neuroscience perspective PB 084 PB 085 PB 086 PB 087 perspective  FLORIN, Marie-Valentine; International Risk Governance Council, Switzerland; IRGC concepts and tools for risk governance  YE, Qian; Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People’s Republic of; Progress and new initiatives in IRG project/IHDP  ORNAF, Julia; Univeristy of Lausanne, Switzerland; Processual political methodology as a legitimate response to pluralism and uncertainty issues  ARPACI, Alexander Duran; University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; Fire risk and interactions with other natural hazards under the impact of climate change in Austria  SALEH, Alida; Exp Services Inc., Canada; Natural disasters and climate change: safe school design and construction  LU, Yanli; Integrated Risk Governance Project (IRGP)/IHDP, China, People’s Republic of; Soil loss and dust release in farmland during extreme dust storms in China   HADRA, Manash Ronjan; Shusamaj Foundation, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Disaster management and B linkages with climate change adaptation  ABDULKADIR, Aishetu; Federal University of Technology, Nigeria, Federal Republif of; An integrated approach to delineation of eco-climatic zones in Northern Nigeria  MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina; Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Recent climate change in Iran – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature Health and medical interventions within emergency situations  AFRAD, Md. Safiul Islam; Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Impact of arsenic mitigation program on socioeconomic aspects of the beneficiaries   HUNG, Man Cheung; Zayed University, United Arab Emirates; Posttraumatic stress disorder and psychiatric coC morbidity following 2010 flood in Pakistan: the role of cognition distortion and suppression  CASPI, Guy; Magen David Adom, Israel, State of; Unconventional Concepts incorporated; providing medical support to large scale public gatherings  KARANTH, Anup; TARU Leading Edge, India, Republic of; Urban service monitoring system (UrSMS): reducing 62 PB 114 PB 115 Elsevier Publishers and Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Present: PB 090 The Official Launch of the PB 091 International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction PB 092 PB 093 PB 094 Climate change adaptation & disaster risk reduction  SMIRNOVA, Tatyana Yurevna; Research Hydrometeorological Institute, Uzbekistan, Republic of; Monitoring of severe weather phenomena for the reduction of damage caused by them on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan  MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade; LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of; Preparedness arising from vulnerability and the value of resilience during the latest climate change episode in Zanzibar  MOHAMMADI, Seyed Abolfazl; Tehran University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; CDM, dam and disaster management of Climate Change   ATEN, Mohammed Abdul; Independent University Bangladesh, Bangladesh, People’s Republic of; Impacts of B climate change in geographically isolated areas: community perception from riverine islands of south-central and northern Bangladesh  VAN STAVEREN, Martijn Floris; Wageningen UR, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; Integrated Flood Management in the context of climate change: case study Vietnam  BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya; Red Crescent Society of Hormozgan, Iran, Islamic Republic of; Preventive family consultation with the approach of enhancing psychological resilience and its role in promoting post-disaster psychological preparedness and mental health SHIEH, Esmaeil; Iran University of Science & Technology; Evaluation of hospital vulnerability, three hospitals in Kerman-Iran SHIEH, Esmaeil; Iran University of Science & Technology; Adapting the” Paho Hospital Safety Index” for hospitals in Iran PB 110 PB 088 PB 089 Risk governance  FISCHHENDLER, Itay; Hebrew University, Israel, State of; Institutional responses to coastal hazards: a comparative health risks through active monitoring in Surat, India PB 095 PB 096 PB 097 PB 098 PB 099 PB 100 PB 101 PB 102 PB 103 PB 104 PB 105 PB 106 PB 107 PB 108 PB 109 When? Monday, 27 August 2012 at 18:10 Where? Conference Centre, in the C1 Foyer in front of the Aspen Room on the Promenade (upper) level Elsevier Publishers and the Global Risk Forum GRF Davos are pleased to announce the launch of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. The IJDRR publishes a wide range of original high quality papers that cover fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy briefings and case studies. It will focus on multi-disciplinary work designed to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. The journal will stimulate exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on the disaster research, mitigation and risk reduction between policymakers, practitioners and academics from different disciplines. Editor in Chief: Prof. Dr. David Alexander, GRF Davos Key topics covered by the journal include: • multifaceted and cascading disasters • spatial and temporal monitoring, analysis and zoning of regional hazard and risk • the development of risk reduction strategies and techniques • discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk reduction in different cultures and communities • climate change and its implications for future disaster risk • governance and the creation of disaster resilience. The journal particularly encourages papers which approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective. It will be of interest to people working in: • the assessment, management and communication of risk • natural and technological hazards monitoring, warning and management • disaster planning, management and response • crisis control and threat reduction • hazards insurance and economics ...and many other areas, professions and disciplines. The journal has a significant number of papers in press and Volume 1 is now ready to be consulted at http://tiny.cc/ijdrr Please join us at the journal's launch party! 63
  • Special events Special events Opening of the 4th IDRC Davos by lyric tenor Roger Widmer accompanied by Stefan Wirth Special events Art Exhibitions (Room Schwarzhorn) Three artists will spectacularly embody the IDRC’s subject areas on Climate Change and Migration into their work. “Act or react?” Sotiria Papadopoulou and Grit Kümmele on Climate Change & Climate Refugees Have you already accidentally bumped into the exhibited Nigerian woman and her kid in the interiors of the Congress? Looked into the carry-on of the woman from Bangladesh? Listened to the Maldivian kid’s personal escape story? In the frame of a project conducted by Netzwerk Amerikahaus Berlin, the technical University TU Berlin and the United Nations Association of Germany (DGVN), artists Grit Kümmele and Sotiria Papadopoulou proudly present you their work based on life-sized two-dimensional figures. Intentionally bringing along disturbing elements into the figures, the artists aim at sensitizing passersby around the problematic of global climate change and climate induced refugees. Copyright: CARE/Courbet The main exhibition being inaugurated beginning of 2013 in Berlin, GRF Davos has given the artists the exceptional opportunity to present their preview work during the 4th IDRC Davos 2012. Sotiria Papadopoulou, a from Athens originating TU Berlin Bühnenbild student and artist, as well as Grit Kümmele, german freelance artist, curator, trainer and university lecturer, invite you to join their experience- oriented exhibition in the room Schwarzhorn of the Congress Center. …Watch, listen and react to the life-sized human figures you may encounter… Copyright: CARE/Bannon “Portraits of Global Change - Risk, Environment and Human Mobility” Visual Artist Ralf Tietz gives your THOUGHTS a VOICE Presented and led by Ralf Tietz, artist from Cologne, Germany, the photographic project “Portraits of Global Change: Risk, Environment and Human Mobility” is part of a wider work in progress. Adapted to IDRC’s subject areas during the Conference, this realtime event consists in artistically taking a photograph of Conference participants and in inviting them to deliver a subject-related message in a short interview. By making the living environment of conference participants more transparent, the idea is to enable a dynamic and visual bird’s eye perspective on thoughts of personalities from all around the world. After having been documented, the individual profiles will be made available on GRF’s Website. How you can contribute: Join artist Ralf Tietz in the room Schwarzhorn, and let yourself guide into this fantastic artistic voyage, in which your thoughts will be given a voice! 64 With completed vocal studies at the academy of music in Zurich, lyric tenor Roger Widmer functions as maestro and chorus leader since 2008. Besides teaching lead vocals himself, Widmer is currently following an advanced training at Carol Bruetting’s in Frankfurt. As a soloist of spiritual opus from baroque to first performances, Widmer’s lively concert activity in Switzerland and surrounding countries - momentarily on tour with “I Quattro” as one of the 4 tenors - is remarkable. With a special interest for the French and German song repertoire, the tenor gathered first operatic experiences at the young operas of Stuttgart and Freiburg, Germany. After having debuted as Astradmus in Die Welt auf dem Mond from Haydn/Steinke as well as performed in a scenic rendition of Schuberts Winterreise by Hans Zender, Widmer is currently committed to the state opera house of Stuttgart. At the Opening Ceremony of the 4th IDRC Davos 2012, tenor Roger Widmer will be accompanied by Stefan Wirth on the grand piano. As one of the most versatile Swiss musicians of his generation and winner of numerous music prices, Stefan Wirth has among others performed with the Czech Chamber Orchestra, the Bernese Chamber Orchestra and the Malaysian National Philharmonic Orchestra. Mainly dedicated to contemporary music both as a composer and as a performer, soloist Wirth closely works with the Collegium Novum in Zurich and the Ensemble Contrechamps in Geneva. Anywhere. Anytime. Anyone. Terrorism, crime, natural disaster and accidents threaten the UK’s transport, banking, telecommunications, utilities, health and food distribution – anywhere, at anytime, affecting anyone. Contingency Today covers all significant threats to the critical national infrastructure, including electronic attack and the sophisticated misuse of computer systems; physical attacks by terrorist organisations and other criminals; the effects of climate change; and other natural disasters, including pandemics, fire and flood. Get ahead of the rest – Contingency Today is required reading for decision makers who protect the nation’s infrastructure. Latest issue out now: www.contingencytoday.com 65
  • Job Fair and Conference Proceedings tOURISM iNFORMATION and LEISURE ACTIVITIES Job Fair Tourism information and Leisure activities Find potential project partners, associates, or employees at the IDRC Davos 2012 Guided tour Are you interested in establishing professional contacts in the field of risk reduction and disaster management? Then don’t miss out on the great opportunity to publish your job advertisements and call for project partners on the IDRC Davos 2012 website. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos You are welcome to visit the SLF and take a look behind the scenes. The tour starts with a 15-minute multimedia presentation of our activities and fields of research. You are then shown various areas of the institute and given an immediate insight into the everyday work of our researchers. How to post your job advertisement? GRF Davos offers the possibility of posting your job advertisement on the IDRC Davos 2012 conference Job Fair Black Board in the Exhibition area next to the GRF Booth. When: Monday, August 27, 2012, 19:00 - 20:30 (max. 25 persons) Booking: required until Monday, August 27, 2012, 16:00 by mailing to fuehrungen@slf.ch or by phoning 081 417 01 11 Price: free of charge Venue: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastrasse 11, 7260 Davos Dorf Do you want to arrange for a job interview? IDRC Davos 2012 offers meeting rooms for job interviews at the venue. The meeting rooms are available from Sunday, 26 August to Thursday, 30 August between 9:00am and 6:00pm and can be booked for free at the registration desk. Please do not hesitate to contact us for any further information on the job fair at the registration desk. Conference proceedings Upon registration at the conference venue, particpants receive a copy of the Conference Proceedings. The proceeding consists of a hard copy of the short abstracts (included in the programme) and the short- and extended abstracts USB stick. Short abstracts The short abstract collections are included at the end of the programme (see page 73), including the abstracts of the oral presentations, the poster presentations, as well as the session and workshop abstracts. It is intended as a reference companion throughout the busy conference days, serving as a quick overview of the presenations with an author index at the end. Short and extended abstracts USB stick The digital collection of the short and extended abstracts consists of: 1. Electronic copy of the short abstacts PDF 2. Interactive extended abstracts documents (oral, sessions and workshops) PDF 3. Poster collection PDF Daily fresh and delicious Enjoy home-style cooking in our cosy Café-Restaurant. Large selection of delicious cakes and different coffee specialities. Our perfect gift ideas: Zauberbergbrot, Kirchner Nusstorte, Parsennsteine and a lot more..... Visit our page and online shop in english www.cafe-weber.ch 66 General information Davos, Europe’s largest mountain resort, offers an unforgettable natural landscape combined with a vast array of leisure activities. Davos has something for everybody. Those who prefer the quiet to the exciting city life will be pleased by the calmness of the Davos area. The region of Davos can be explored on 700 km of well-preserved and marked hiking trails. Whether you are interested in mountaineering, hiking or strolling on comfortable walks - in Davos you will find your personal hiking paradise. A wide range of leisure activities are available for participants. Enjoy a horse carriage ride in one of our beautiful side valleys, learn a new trend like Nordic Walking or visit one of the famous museums of Davos. For detailed information regarding leisure activities and for bookings, please ask at the IDRC information booth at the entrance of the conference centre. For post conference tourism activities, please visit the local guest service for all kind of toursim information: Destination Davos Klosters Information Davos Platz Tourismus- und Sportzentrum Talstrasse 41 7270 Davos Platz Tel. +41 (0)81 415 21 21, Fax +41 (0)81 415 21 00 Destination Davos Klosters Information Davos Dorf Opening hours guest service: Monday - Friday: 8:30-12:00 0 13:45-18:00 Saturday: 09:00-18:00 Sunday: 10:00-14:00 Opening hours guest service: Monday - Friday: 08:30-12:00 14:00-17:00 Saturday: 13:00-18:00 Sunday: 12:00-14:00 Bahnhofstrasse 8 7260 Davos Dorf Tel. +41 (0)81 415 21 21, Fax +41 (0)81 415 21 07 Mountain railways: +41 (0)81 417 62 22 Please do not hesitate to contact us at the registration booth for further information. Outdoor activities Horse drawn carriage ride Take a trip through the magnificent mountain landscape and finish off with a tasting of local specialities and a traditional Röteli liqueur at a popular mountain restaurant. Hiking Comfortable paths for stolling or narrow mountain tracks through steep terrain above the tree line. Explore the old settlements of the Walser, and move through distant valleys of the Davos Klosters region. Nordic walking Exercise the whole body through this popular Nordic sport, which gentle on the joints and splendid for stimulating the circulation. 67
  • tOURISM iNFORMATION & LEISURE ACTIVITIES Media partners Biking Our alpine trails promise excellent flow and unlimited fun. The new single-track trail map for the region Davos Klosters Prättigau supplies detailed information on all the trails. Climbing The climbing garden is set in the rocks near the Seehorn summit, reached by an hour’s walk from Flüelastrasse in Davos Dorf. A superb spot thanks to its sunny situation and spectacular views. Media Partners Contengency today Paragliding Get a bird’s-eye view of the world. We are ready to fly you away whenever the mood takes you. Sweep silently over cliffs, trees and countryside, feel the cool clean air on your skin and marvel at views of deep valleys and impressive peaks. Golf Golf at alpine altitudes presents special challenges. A professional golf coach inducts you into the world of proper posture, correct grip of the club, and the perfect swing. Elsevier Swimming Thanks to “eau-là-là”, the new Wellness and Pleasure Pool Centre, Davos has now also become an oasis year in, year out for people who value their health, those who want to have fun or for serious swimmers, both young and old alike. Pool Centre (next to the conference center), Promenade 90, CH-7270 Davos Platz Tel. +41 (0)81 413 64 63 Museums Folk museum This valuable collection of ancient Davos artefacts and scripts document the transformation of the farming community and the recent development of the mountain region into the city of Davos. Heimat Museum, Museumstrasse 1, 7260 Davos Dorf Kirchner museum Built in honour of the German expressionist artist Ernst Ludwig Kirchner, the museum caused a sensation in international architectural circles. A visit at the museum gives you an insight into his major works of art. Kirchner Museum, Ernst Ludwig Kirchner, Promenade 82, 7270 Davos Platz Emerald Insight European Journal on Risk Regulation Please visite our IDRC information booth at the entrance of the conference centre. The personal guest service or the webpage from the local tourism service will inform you about the complete variety of leisure activities: www.davos.ch International Climate Change Information Programme Tech 21 ****Turmhotel Victoria DAVOS das neue „Charme & Luxury“ Hotel Buchen und jetzt profitieren! Ihr Vorteil: 15 % Rabatt Angebot gültig während der Sommersaison 2012 (Das Angebot ist nicht kumulierbar mit anderen Spezialangeboten) ****Turmhotel Victoria / CH 7260 Davos Dorf Tel: 0041 (0) 81 417 53 00 hotel@victoria -davos.ch / www.victoria -davos.ch 68 WADEM World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine 69
  • OUTCOMES OF IDRC DaVOS 2012 OUTCOMES OF IDRC DaVOS 2012 How YOU can contribute to the IDRC Davos 2012 Outcomes Report IDRC Davos 2012’s theme is “Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society”. How do we move to a safer world and increase societies’ resilience and how can our current know-how support this change process? IDRC Davos 2012 will attempt to find answers and offer solutions to today’s challenges in reducing risks and managing disasters. The biennial IDRC Davos conferences are held in alternate years to the UNISDR Global Platforms and the two events can thus be considered complementary. The 2013 Global Platform is of particular importance because of its role in setting the global agenda for the strategy to be adopted after the UNISDR’s Hyogo Framework for Action formally expires in 2015. It is expected that the succeeding vision and strategy will build upon the strengths of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) and adapt it to new imperatives. There is a consensus that the HFA needs to be made more operational, which will involve adding much practical detail to the existing strategy. IDRC Davos 2012 can also to be seen as an event that follows up the latest UN Conference on Sustainable Development Meeting (UNCSD), Rio+20, which highlighted the following areas for priority attention: adequate employment, energy security, sustainable cities, food security, sustainable agriculture, water supplies, oceans and disaster readiness. All of these are relevant to the concept of risk and thus should not be seen in isolation from one another. In synthesis, disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience need to be incorporated into sustainable development goals. There is a need to identify the key terms, main trends and most crucial issues in DRR and resilience and to determine how much consensus exists on these matters. There is also a need to document (a) emerging consensuses, (b) innovative ideas, and (c) developing common viewpoints. The main questions to be addressed are as follows: 1. What are the dominant and developing trends in risks and disasters in the modern world? 2. How can the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (H.F.A.) be strengthened and what sort of instruments should be developed after the H.F.A.? 3. What are the principal issues for the future in disaster risk reduction and resilience, and how should they be tackled? 70 These three main questions can be extended as follows (see Questionnaire in your conference bag or online at: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/IDRC2012outcomes ) 1. Dominant and developing trends in risks and disasters. 1.1. What are the most important current and potential future trends in risks and disasters and their impacts? 1.2. Do society’s variable risk perceptions influence the allocation of resources and investment decisions? 1.3. Vulnerability to disasters has many drivers: Socio-economic, demographic, and health-related factors, and governance institutions can have a major influence on coping and adaptive capacity in local communities – are we aware of all these drivers? 1.4. How can resilience to disasters be increased in a time of global economic crises, decreasing resource availability at local, national and international levels and a climate change driven increase of disaster risk - how can more be achieved with less? 1.5. As disasters (rather than merely extreme phenomena) are essentially human phenomena, what has society to expect from disasters during the next ten years? 1.6. As a corollary of this, broadly what forms of organisation, resourcing and investment will be needed in order to face up to the problem of risks and disasters over the period 2015-25? 2. Following up the Hyogo Framework for Action. 2.1. What has the HFA achieved so far on local, regional, national and international level? Has it been an effective instrument for stimulating preparedness and policy formulation? 2.2. What kind of success stories and concrete examples of good practice related to the HFA can so far be identified? 2.3. Are the various stakeholders (in particular the private sector) adequately integrated and involved in the HFA process? 2.4. During the next decade, what should be done to improve the effectiveness of the Hyogo Framework for Action, or what sort of strategy, instruments and tools should be used in place of it? 2.5. How can investment for disaster risk reduction be encouraged (to be seen as an investment for safer future and sustainability, not as an additional cost)? 3. The principal issues for the future. 3.1. What kind of strategy should the world focus on in order to stimulate disaster risk reduction by 2025? 3.2. How can resilience be achieved? 3.3. In what ways are the processes of reducing vulnerability to disasters and improving resilience complementary? 3.4. ow can disaster risk reduction be made sustainable and how can it be linked to the world’s general sustainability H agenda (for lifestyles, livelihoods and resource stewardship)? We are going to produce a report to summarize the outcomes of IDRC Davos 2012. For input we need YOUR answers to these crucial questions above. Please write your thoughts down on the questionnaire that is available at the GRF Davos booth and post it in the yellow box at our GRF Davos booth in front of the plenary hall or submit it online by using our Survey Monkey at: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/IDRC2012outcomes 71
  • General information & emergency General information and emergency Phone numbers Taxi: Express-Taxi Tel. +41 (0)81 410 11 11 Delta-Taxi Tel. +41 (0)81 401 14 14 Zurich Airport: Telephone: +41(0)43 816 22 11 Email: info@zurich-airport.com Other Information Banking: Local currency: Swiss Francs / 1 CHF = 100 Rappen Payment with credit cards and in EURO, other currencies may be accepted Currency exchange rate Exchange rate CHF 1.- : 0.80 EURO; 1.- EURO : CHF 1.20 Banks (opening hours): Mon - Fri 08:30/09:00 - 12:00 and 14:00 - 16.30/17.30 Train Stations (opening hours): Davos Dorf: Mon - Sun 07:40 - 11:40 and 13:50 - 18:10 Davos Platz: Mon - Sun 04:45 - 22:00 Business Hours: 08:00 - 12:00 14:00 - 18:00 Emergency Numbers Emergency call number Tel. 144 REGA (Swiss air-rescue) Tel. 1414 Spital Davos (Hospital) Promenade 4, Davos Platz Tel. +41 (0)81 414 88 88 Pharmacy: Amavita Apotheke Davos Platz (Kongress Apotheke) Promenade 49, 7270 Davos Platz Tel. +41 (0)58 851 32 07 Police (Emergency call number) Tel. 117 Guest Pass All hotel guests are entitled to a guest pass for the duration of their stay in Davos. This entitles guests to a variety of discounts including unlimited public transport on some routes, discounted tours and child minding. Please check with your hotel for details. Bus The local bus is free with the guest pass. Without it costs approximately CHF 3.00 per ticket which is valid for 1 hour of travel. INTERNET WIRELESS ACCESS CODE Username: IDRC Password: 2012 IDRC Davos 2010 volunteers IDRC Davos 2012 volunteers Amin Rubina, Switzerland Banizaman Lari Farhad, Iran Beccari Benjamin, Nepal Becker Marlene, Germany Blankstein Simone, Canada Chamlagain Deepak, Italy Chen Feiran, Germany Colombini Thomas, Switzerland Eftekhari Narges, Iran Hua Zhenyang, China Kazak Liudmila, Switzerland Koper Ryanne, Netherlands Liepold Annka, Germany 72 Magni Michele, Italy Mbohno Pamela Bibi, Germany Mulokozi Rwiza Christopher, Tanzania Peters Felix, Germany Richter Ina, Germany Schmitt Emilia, Switzerland Sumardjono Ervita, Switzerland Van Staveren Martijn, Netherlands Vargova Jana, Slovakia Weeresinghe Shayani, Sri Lanka Wu Yanjuan, China
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 Proceedings of the International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 International Disaster and Risk Conference 26 - 30 August 2012 Edited by Marc Stal Stéphanie Jaquet Andrea Roth Manuela Stiffler Walter Ammann Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland 73
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 IDRC DAVOS 2012 Table of Contents Contents Abstracts are sorted alphabetically according to the first author or chair listed and divided into groups according to the type of presentation/session (Oral Presentations; Poster Presentations, Sessions & Workshops). Oral Presentations 99  Mainstreaming Pandemic Preparedness into Multi-Hazard Readiness  ABDULLAH (TBC), Amir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100  Safe water adaptability index for salinity, arsenic and drought risk in south-west of Bangladesh  ABEDIN, Md. Anwarul; SHAW, Rajib. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100  A study of the performance of risk and vulnerability assessments by Swedish Public Agencies  ABRAHAMSSON, Marcus (1,2); ERIKSSON, Kerstin (1,2); HASSEL, Henrik (1,2); PETERSEN, Kurt (1,2); TEHLER, Henrik (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100  Building community resilience by integrating disaster risk reduction and health system strengthening  AEBISCHER, Christina; JOEHR, Anton. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100  Building national pandemic preparedness through strengthening non health sectors: Indonesia’s lesson learnt)  AGUSTIONO, Emil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101  Crisis Management: Needs, Gaps and Opportunities  AL KHUDAIRY, delilah Helen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101  Building a safe municipality Morelia, Michoacàn, Méxiko  ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); NOCCETI, Manuel (2); DÍAZ, Rogelio (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 How to motivate private sector participants to invest in mitigating and adapting to systemic risks  ALDRICH, Stephen C.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101  management of flood risks at the city of Tabuk  AL-MOMANI, Ayman Hassan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102  FASTID project - FAST and efficient international disaster victim IDentification  AMBS, Peter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102  2012-2025 roadmap of I.R.Iran's Health Disaster Management Please note that during the editorial process only minor grammatical and spelling corrections were made to the abstracts.  ARDALAN, Ali (1); RAJAEI, Mohammad Hossein (1); MASOOMI, Gholamreza (2); AZIN, Seyed Ali (3); ZONOOBI, Vahid (2); SARVAR, Mohammad (2); VASKOUIE, Khorshid (2); AHMADNEZHAD, Elham (1); JAFARI, Gelareh (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102  Fuel cycle risks imposed by a nuclear growth scenario  ARNOLD, Nikolaus; GUFLER, Klaus; SHOLLY, Steven C.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from the publisher, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.  Risk concept for natural hazards on motorway in Switzerland Published and distributed by the Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, 7270 Davos Platz, Switzerland. Tel.: +41 (0)81 414 16 00; Fax: +41 (0)81 414 16 10; www.grforum.org Enabling small businesses to develop their business continuity plan: York University business continuity planning toolkit for small businesses Copyright © Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Printed in Switzerland by Buchdruckerei Davos AG, Davos, Switzerland.  The planning and implementation of earthquake scenario in megacities  ARNOLD, Philippe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103  ASGARY, Ali; KONG, Albert. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104  AZIZI, Amir; BAGHBANNEZHAD, Abolghassem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Digitalized extended abstracts are available at IDRC Davos 2012 and upon request at info@grforum.org . 74 75
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  BACH, Claudia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104  Early warning and the human factor - people-centered warning systems and awareness are key  BARTHELT, Christian H.; LOSTER, Thomas R.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Heterogeneous Structural Development in megacities in Iran; a Factor hindering optimal performance of rescue forces in crisis response phase  BATHAEE, Reza (1); Hossein TEIMOORI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105  Maximise your returns in crisis management preparedness: a cyclic approach to training and exercises  BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); ABRAHAM, Philip (3); BRAAKHEKKE, Erie (1,4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105  Dynamic potential in disaster exercises: identifcation – development – evaluation  BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); KALTENBRUNNER, Katharina Anna (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105  FORIN or Farout ? Exploring multiple drivers of disaster risks in Africa  BENOUAR, Djillali (1); ROVINS, Jane (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106  Identifying and preparing for threats to critical infrastructure during protests or civil unrest  BERNIER, Suzanne Naomi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106  International municipal cooperation as a modality for transferring local best practices in disaster risk management: practice, promise and pitfalls  BERSE, Kristoffer (1); ASAMI, Yasushi (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106  The Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network: strengthening the public health prevention and outbreak control strategy  BERTHERAT, Eric (1); JANCLOES, Michel (2); FIRTH, Emily (1); DURSKI, Kara (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107  Empowering communities to cope with disaster risks through community-based disaster management  BHADRA, Manash Ronjan; KANAK, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak; ISLAM, Rabiul. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107  Tale of two cities: developing city reliance strategies under climate change scenarios for Indore and Surat, India  BHAT, Gopalakrishna; RAJASEKAR, Umamaheshwaran; KARANTH, Anup. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107  Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: new challenges and new insights from the IPCC SREX report and own Studies  BIRKMANN, Joern. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108  A time series analysis of climate variability and its impact on food production in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia  BOKA, Gutu Tesso; EMANA, Dr. Bezabih; KETEMA, Dr. Mengistu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108  Enhancing regional resilience to cope with critical infrastructure disruptions: the public-private partnership experience in Lombardy Region, Italy  BOUCHON, Sara (1); DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); TRUCCO, Paolo (2); ZACCONE, Andrea (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108  User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process  BOUCHON, Sara; DIMAURO, Carmelo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109  A comparison of regular and disrupted operations for route planning in freight transportation  BROCK, Maximilian (1); MATTEIS, Tilman (2); HAYDEN, Cristina (1); ZHANG, Li (2); GROSS, Wendelin (1). . . . . . . . . 109  Societal Security – the new standard ISO 22301 for Business Continuity Management  BRUSAMOLINO, Luigi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109  The Greater Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011: a case study in the communication of science for disaster risk reduction  BRYNER, Vivienne (1,2); NORRIS, Richard (2); FLEMING, Jean (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110  Are private flood mitigation measures successfully contributing to contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany?  BUBECK, Philip (1,2); BOTZEN, Wouter (2); KREIBICH, Heidi (1); AERTS, Jeroen (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110  Does risk communication raise property owners’ preparedness to implement safety measures against flood damage?  BUCHECKER, Matthias; MAIDL, Elisabeth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110   76 Comparative risk assessment of energy technologies in the context of energy security and sustainability  BURGHERR, Peter; ECKLE, Petrissa; HIRSCHBERG, Stefan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111  Dealing with disaster in transitional democracies  BYNANDER, Fredrik (1,2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111  Bridging sustainably the last mile connectivity in India and Myanmar  CAPISTRANO, Melgabal (1); SINGH, Nagendra (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111  DRHOUSE project: the ASA module for the post earthquake structural assessment  CASAROTTI, Chiara; PAVESE, Alberto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112  Lessons Learned from Multi Casualty incidents response by Magen David Adom Israel Contents Critical infrastructure vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction IDRC DAVOS 2012  CASPI, Guy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112  Training programs for risk reduction of typhoon disaster chains in southeast coastal region of China  CHANG, Sheng (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2); LEI, Yongdeng (1,2); MA, Liang (1); LI, Qunfang (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113  Disaster cultural resilience of religious communities – case study from Sri Lanka post 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami  CHEN, Ted Yu Shen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113  The climate change impact and adaptation strategy on disaster in Taiwan  CHEN, Yung-ming (1); CHEN, Liang-chun (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113  Development of natural disaster damage investigation system using smartphone in Korea  CHO, Jae Woong; CHOI, Woo Jung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114  Causes of success and failure in post disaster reconstruction projects – a case study of post 2005 earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction in Northern Pakistan  CHOUDHARY, Muhammad Abbas (1); MEHMOOD, Kashif (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114  Posttraumatic stress and psychiatric co-morbidity following bombing in Iraq: the role of shattered world assumptions and altered self-capacities  CHUNG, Man Cheung (1); FREH, Fuaad Mohammed (2); DALLOS, Rudi (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114  What role for soldiers?  CLARKE, John L.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115  Strengthening resilience through learning and transformation  CLOT, Nicole. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115  USA building code changes resulting from 9/11 attacks  CORLEY, William Gene. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115  A long term building capacity model that prepares for effective disaster relief  COUPET, Sidney; COPPOLA, Christopher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115  How the emergency 2.0 Wiki can help build resilient communities, empowered with the knowledge to use web 2.0 and social media in emergencies  CULLETON, Eileen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116  Proposed seismic risk reduction program for lifelines in the megacity of Tehran, Iran  DARDAEI, Sadegh; SHAKIB, Hamzeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116  Addressing risks of water stress in farming by smallholders: examples from India  DAS GUPTA, Partha R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117  Environmental and ecological solutions 21st century technology  DE LA POMERAI, Garry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117  READ - Risk Exposure Awareness and Deflection - creating an organization-wide risk awareness program  DE LANDGRAAF, Arjen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117  A comparison of functional outcomes at one year between two cohorts of patients with extremity limb trauma following the Haitian earthquake in 2010  DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (1); LE PERFF, Hervé (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (2); MULLER, Joel (2); KHALLAF, Nezha (2); SHANG, Lou (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 77
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (1); LE PERFF, Hervé (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (2); MULLER, Joel (2); KHALLAF, Nezha (2); SHANG, Lou (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118  Developing best practices for the resettlement of environmental migrants: the next step  DES MARAIS, Eric Anthony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118  Bundling of risks for disaster proofing  DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119  Integrating science with practice to advocate tsunami risk reduction interventions  DI MAURO, Manuela (1); GRIFFIN, Jonathan (2); WIBOWO, Agus (3); TUCKER, Brian (4); MEGAWATI, Kusnowidjaja (1,5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119  A regional multi-risk assessment approach to support the definition public mitigation strategies  DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); BULDRINI, Marco (2); OLIVERI, Stefano (3); SEMINATI, Paolo (3); FRATTINI, Paolo (4). . . . 120  Weather aware, climate prepared.  DONOVAN, Tim; BUTCHER, Tom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120  Underpinning sustainability with advanced and visual analytics within the intelligent operations center  DONOVANG-KUHLISCH, Margarete Charlotte (1); SMALL, Michael Kenneth (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120  Early detection, surveillance of wildfires and the integration into fire management systems  DREIBACH, Joachim Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121  A new public health concept for risk governance of vector-borne infections  DRESSEL, Kerstin Maja; SCHUELE, Steffen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121  Taking into account socio-cultural factors to improve alerting strategies  DRESSEL, Kerstin; PFEIL, Patricia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121  A disaster management framework for coping with acts of extreme violence in school settings: a field study  DUMITRIU, Camelia (1); HUTU, Carmen Aida (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122  Risk of large oil spills: A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deep Water Horizon  ECKLE, Petrissa; BURGHERR, Peter; MICHAUX, Edouard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122  Integrative risk management  EGGENBERGER, René. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122  Processing satellite imagery for mapping physical exposure globally  EHRLICH, Daniele; HALKIA, Stamatia; KEMPER, Thomas; PESARESI, Martino; SOILLE, Pierre. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122  Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP)  ELGIN, K. Gokhan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123  Risk assessment of the buried fuel pipelines in the City of Kermanshah, Iran  ESKANDARI, Mohammad; SADEGHI KOMJANI, Niloofar; MOGHIMI, Sanam. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123  Understanding risk communication: the acceptability of risk communication in a multilingual Europe  ESMAIL, Zarah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123  A preliminary study of flash flood in Hunan Province, China - spatio-temporal characteristics, trends and risk management  FANG, Jian; DU, Juan; XU, Wei; SHI, Peijun. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124  Considering social and cultural dimension of resilient cities  FARZAD BEHTASH, Mohammad Reza (1); KEYNEJHAD, Mohammad Ali (2); PIRBABAEI, Mohammad Taghi (3); AGHABABAEI, Mohammad Taghi (4). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124  Vulnerability assessment of urban building stock: a hierarchic approach  FERREIRA, Tiago (1); VICENTE, Romeu (1); VARUM, Humberto (1); MENDES DA SILVA, J.A.R. (2); COSTA, Aníbal (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124  The DITAC Project - Development of a Disaster Training curriculum (DITAC)  The impact of uncertainties and risks on cooperation and conflict in transboundary water management  FISCHHENDLER, Itay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125  Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX project  FLEMING, Kevin Michael. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125  Risk engineering decision tools for risk management support  FORTE, Marcello; SALVADOR, Emanuele. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126  Natural disaster mitigation and earth observations: a Group on Earth Observations perspective.  GAETANI, Francesco; CRIPE, Douglas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126  Building a global exposure database Contents One-year follow up of care received by a cohort of patients treated with limb amputation following the earthquake in Haiti IDRC DAVOS 2012  GAMBA, Paolo (1); CROWLEY, Helen (2); KELLER, Nicole (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127  A resilience based analysis framework for critical infrastructures protection  GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios; FILIPPINI, Roberto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127  Harmonization of seismic hazard assessment: the SHARE example  GIARDINI, Domenico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127  RAPID-N: A tool for mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes  GIRGIN, Serkan (1); KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128  The Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD): announcing a new dataset  GIROUX, Jennnifer (1); BURGHERR, Peter (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128  The impact on the public of preventive information about risks  GLATRON, Sandrine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128  Prevention of major accidents in road transportation of dangerous goods  GLOOR, Adrian Robert. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128  Insurance for the Rural Smallholder Farmer: Kilimo Salama  GOSLINGA, Rose. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129  Experiences of working for improving state of community based disaster preparedness in Mumbai city  GOVALE, Ajay R.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129  Floating ecocities as a strategy to reduce the vulnerability of delta areas  GRAAF, Rutger De (1,2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129  A wind erosion case study in an alpine meadow (Davos, Switzerland) compared to wind tunnel experiments with live plants  GRAF, Frank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130  Preparedness of CBRNE incident management within the EU  GRAN, Hans-Christian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130  The role of economics in making better sustainable flood risk management decisions  GREEN, Colin; VIAVATTENE, Christophe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130  Mastering the ante in critical infrastructures – a Swiss approach to visualizing trends, realizing opportunities and defeating threats  GRUBER, Marco (1); DOERIG, Adolf (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131  Risk, altruism and resilience in post-tsunami Indonesia: a gendered perspective  GUARNACCI, Ugo (1); DI GIROLAMO, Amalia (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131  Enhancing farmer’s resilience toward droughts: perspective from northwestern region of Bangladesh  HABIBA, Umma; SHAW, Rajib; TAKEUCHI, Yukiko. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131  Early warning of glacial lake outburst floods and climate change monitoring in the Karakoram mountains, P.R. China  HAEMMIG, Christoph (1); KEUSEN, Hansrudolf (1); HESS, Josef (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132  Seven elements for capacity development for disaster risk reduction  HAGELSTEEN, Magnus (1,2); BECKER, Per (1,2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132  FISCHER, Philipp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 78 79
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  HALLDIN, Sven (1,2); BYNANDER, Fredrik (1,3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132  Enhancing urban resilience to extreme waters: The WASH and RESCUE Initiative  HAN, Guoyi (1); JOHANNESSEN, Åse (1); PÅLSSON, Anders (2); ROSEMARIN, Arno (1); RUBEN, Cecilia (1); STENSTRÖM, Thor Axel (1); SWARTLING, Åsa (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133  Making and unmaking human security: the limits of state power in reducing risk and creating resilience  HANDMER, John; MCLENNAN, Blythe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133  World Health Organization: health security preparedness  HARPER, David Ross . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133  Have we finally found the elusive "Higgs Boson" particle of disaster risk Reduction?  HAYS, Walter West. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134  The Emergency Support System - ESS: Concept and technology  HAZZANI, Gideon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134  Social vulnerability to natural hazards in China  HE, Shuai; YANG, Saini; YE, Jiayuan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134  A framework for sustainable natural hazard management  HEDELIN, Beatrice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135  Protection against muddy floods: perception of one protection system (fascines) for local actors in Alsace (France)  HEITZ, Carine (1); FLINOIS, Géraldine (1,2); GLATRON, Sandrine (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135  Low cost flood early warning systems based on linking local governments and communities in the Philippines  HERNANDO, Hilton (1); NEUSSNER, Olaf (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135  Emergency Support System - ESS : The web-portal  HERRERO, Jose. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136  Investigating the performance of coastal ecosystems for hazard mitigation  HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L (1); SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman. P (1); RATNASOORIYA, Harsha (1); FERNANDO, Joe (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136  Tsunami risk assessment and management - case studies from Sri Lanka  HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L; SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman.P; WIJERATNE, Nimal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Does environmental degradation lead the way out of Chuuk, FSM? Rebecca HOFMANN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137  Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in Switzerland  HOLTHAUSEN, Niels (1); KÖLLNER-HECK, Pamela (2); BRÜNDL, Michael (3); LOCHER, Peter (1); PÜTZ, Marco (4); PERCH-NIELSEN, Sabine (1); BLASER, Lilian (1); PROBST, Thomas (2); HOHMANN, Roland (2). 137  Analysis of evacuation system and resident's cognition on coastal disaster prevention  HONG, Sung Jin; PARK, Hyung Seong; KIM, Dong Seag . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137  Strengthening resilience at community level; linking up community DM with Government DM  HUERLIMANN, Maja . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138  Integrated assessment of high mountain hazards and related prevention strategies in the Peruvian Cordilleras  HUGGEL, Christian (1); HAEBERLI, Wilfried (1); PORTOCARRERO, César (2); COCHACHIN, Alejo (3); SCHNEIDER, Demian (1); ROHRER, Mario (4); GARCIA, Javier (5); SCHLEISS, Anton (5); SALZMANN, Nadine (1) . 138  Tsunami awareness in Bander Chabahar, south of Iran  IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. (1); ZAKER, Nasser H. (2); FAKHRI BAFGHI, Bibielham (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139  OECD High Level Risk Forum and Framework for Disaster Risk Management  JACOBZONE, Stéphane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139  Vulnerability analysis of women's health in natural disasters and proposed strategies for risk reduction  JAHANGIRI, Katayoun (2); IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. (1); SADIGHI, Jila (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 80  Integrated risk assessment tools for decision-making. A case study from landslide affected mountain areas in Central Nepal  JAQUET, Stephanie (1); SUDMEIER-RIEUX, Karen I (2); DERRON, Marc-Henri (3); JABOYEDOFF, Michel (3). . . . . . . 139  Diagnosis of climate-related risks by using a Bayesian updating method – a case study of summer temperature in China  JIN, YunYun (1,2); WANG, Ming (1,2); SHI, PeiJun (1,2); YANG, SaiNi (1,2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140  Rural hazards and vulnerability assessment in the downstream sector of Shiroro dam, Nigeria  JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140  Social learning in education – an important step in practical integration of preventive risk reduction and adaptation to climate change Contents  Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) – a strategic Swedish initiative for disaster risk reduction IDRC DAVOS 2012  JOHANSSON, Magnus (1,2); NYBERG, Lars (1); EVERS, Mariele (1,3); HANSSON, Max (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141  Recovery and resilience of industry and geographic sectors after the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes  KACHALI, Hlekiwe (1); SEVILLE, Erica (2); VARGO, John (2,3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141  The ISMEP activities on raising public awareness, education and volunteering  KADIOGLU, Mikdat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141  Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction into the Curriculum: A Technical Guidance Tool  KAGAWA, Fumiyo; SELBY, David. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142  Using dasymetrics to address the aggregation error in spatial data: a multi-criteria approach for flood vulnerability assessment using spatial data  KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142  Indirect economic impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake: approach by Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model  KAJITANI, Yoshio (1); TATANO, Hirokazu (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142  Landslide risk management issues in SafeLand  KALSNES, Bjørn (1); NADIM, Farrokh (1); BAYER, Joanne (2); SCOLOBIG, Anna (2); CASCINI, Leonardo (3); FERLISI, Settimio (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142  Hybrid socio-technical approach for effective risk communication, risk management and early warning system  KARNAWATI, Dwikorita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143  African Risk Capacity – Sovereign Disaster Risk Management for Africa  KASSAM, Fatima. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143  Cultural landscape of DRR in Russia  KAVTARADZE, Dmitry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143  Strategic risk management by a roads provider  KELLERHALS, Christian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144  Addressing risk and resilience: an analysis of Māori communities and cultural technologies in response to the Christchurch earthquakes  KENNEY, Christine Marie (1); JOHNSTON, David (2); PATON, Douglas (3); REID, John (4); PHIBBS, Suzanne Rachel (5). 44 1  Haiti, two years later: What has happened to the injured? Factors affecting social integration of the 12th January 2010 earthquake victims in Port-au-Prince  KHALLAF, Nezha (1); SHANG, Lou (1); MULLER, Joel (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (2); BLACKWELL, Nikki (2); DELAUCHE, Marie-Christine (2); LE PERFF, Hervé (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144  Medical treatment options and patient preference: the case of the limb-trauma victims of the earthquake in Haiti on January 12, 2010  KHALLAF, Nezha (1); SHANG, Lou (1); MULLER, Joel (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (2); DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (2); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (2); LE PERFF, Hervé (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145  Tsunami hazard mapping through characteristic analysis of inundation  KIM, Dong Seag; PARK, Hyoung Seong; HONG, Sung Jin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145  Can the PFI model mitigate risk in non-infrastructure procurement?  KINGSMILL-VELLACOTT, Anna; SIDERMAN-WOLTER, Kirk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 81
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  KLAFFT, Michael (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146  Building Resilient Business  KOCSIS, Otto. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146  Livelihood improvement of the poorest farmer through degraded forest management in Nepal  KOIRALA, Pashupati Nath . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146  Area wide risk assessment – a best practice example in the Province of the Tyrol  KOLER, Andreas; HAMA, Angela Michiko; ORTNER, Stefan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147  Preliminary study of the relationship between new risk factors and traditional risk factors - taking the relationship between the population urbanization and natural disasters in China’s county-level units for example  KONG, Feng (1,3); SHI, Peijun (1,2,3); SUN, Shao (1,3); LI, Man (1,3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147  Natech accidents following the great eastern japan earthquake and tsunami  KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (1); CRUZ, Ana Maria (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147  The role of societal context in severe technical accidents  KROMP, Wolfgang (1); ANDREEV, Iouli (1); ANREEVA, Irina (1); GIERSCH, Martin (2); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (3). . . . 148  The risk of the wrong priorities in university education  KROMP-KOLB, Helga (1); LINDENTHAL, Thomas (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148  Resilience: from theory to practice  KUNDAK, Seda. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148  Initial medical care of Chemical patients  LATASCH, Leo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149  Hospital & EMS – real time information SOGRO  LATASCH, Leo (1); DI GENNARO, Mario (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149  Terrorist Train Bombings in Madrid. Learned Lessons  LEIS, Carmen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149  Same problem – different solutions: Spanish Model  LEIS, Carmen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150  The regional economic impact of catastrophe - case study on the China-Japan auto industry after the Great East Japan Earthquake  LI, Man; SHI, Peijun; FANG, Jian; NIE, Jianliang; YE, Tao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150  Integrated management of the mangrove forest ecosystem for improved climate resilience in Vietnam  LONG, Tran Kim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151  Old issues, new approaches - public private partnerships for effective recovery and reconstruction  LOVE, Gavin John. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151  Occupational health of front line workers responding to earthquakes in New Zealand: workplace cultures- vulnerability, resistance and resilience.  LOVELOCK, Kirsten Marina (1); MCBRIDE, David (1); SHEPHERD, Daniel (2); BILLINGTON, Rex (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . 151  Informed response via satellite based technologies  MACINNES, Iain Hay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152  Emergency Support System - ESS: System’s field tests  MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152  Human settlement indices for bushfire risk in Australia  MARCH, Alan Peter (1); GROENHART, Lucy (1); LEONARD, Justin (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152  The multirisk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGM  MARÇOT, Nathalie; MIRGON, Carola. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153  3D-simulation of integrated natural and man-made hazards  MARININ, Igor (1,2); KABANIKHIN, Sergey (2); MARCHUK, Andrey (2,3); KRIVOROTKO, Olga (3); KARAS, Adel (1); KHIDASHELI, David (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 82  DRR in fragile context (Afghanistan)  MARTHALER, Esther. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153  Participation and reduction of local disasters  MARTÍN, Sebastián (1); DORTA, Pedro (2); ROMERO, Carmen (2); MAYER, Pablo (3); DÍAZ, Jaime (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 Rebuilding Cities after crises: Lessons learnt from urban disaster and conflicts Ansa MASAUD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154  Understanding and Measuring Urban Resilience: A new UN-Habitat's initiative  MASAUD, Ansa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154  Climate change, natural resources, institution and the value of research from a global to a local perspective in Mwanga district Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania Contents  Technology use aspects of alerting systems IDRC DAVOS 2012  MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155  How do different geohazards affect mortality and economic losses?  MCADOO, Brian G.; KRENITSKY, Nicole; AUGENSTEIN, Jared; ZELTZER, Matthew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155  A community-driven approach to material management in post-disaster reconstruction  MCGRATH, Riona; VON MEDING, Jason; OYEDELE, Lukumon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155  The Protection of environmental refugees through international public law  MEUTSCH, Anja . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156  Cost assessment of natural hazards – state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendations  MEYER, Volker (1); BECKER, Nina (1); MARKANTONIS, Vasileios (1); SCHWARZE, Reimund (1); AERTS, Jeroen C. J. H. (2); VAN DEN BERGH, Jeroen C. J. M. (3); BOUWER, Laurens M. (2); BUBECK, Philip (4); CIAVOLA, Paolo (5); DANIEL, Vanessa (2); GENOVESE, Elisabetta (6); GREEN, Colin (7); HALLEGATTE, Stéphane (6); KREIBICH, Heidi (4); LEQUEUX, Quentin (5); LOCHNER, Bernhard (8); LOGAR, Ivana (3); PAPYRAKIS, Elissaios (2); PFURTSCHELLER, Clemens (8); POUSSIN, Jennifer (2); PRZYLUSKI, Valentin (6); THIEKEN, Annegret H. (8,9); THOMPSON, Paul (7); VIAVATTENE, Christophe (7) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156  Private sector-civil society partnership opportunities for resilience building  MITCHELL, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157  Integrative disaster risk management: case study from India on social and economic re-construction”  MITRA, Swati; GULATI, Naresh (,). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157  Global perspective on seismic risk reduction and resilient disaster reconstruction  MIYAMOTO, H Kit; GILANI, Amir S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157  Risk Management of Natural Disasters in Morocco: a project of Global and Integrated Strategy  MOHAMED, Tabyaoui. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158  The role of local actors for creating effective risk governance culture  MOLIN-VALDES, Helena . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158  Agricultural risk micro-insurance product for Mozambique  MORTGAT, Christian P. (1); STOJANOVSKI, Pane (2); BOISSONNADE, Auguste C. (2); BERNHARDT, Alex (3). . . . . . . 158  Beyond pandemics: a whole of society approach to disaster preparedness  MOSSELMANS, Michael Lodowick. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159  Management of the continuity services in water infrastructure (case study: emergency drinking water management in Tehran metropolitan)  MOZAFARI, Abdollah; JEDDI, Seyed Majid; MOHAMMADI, Sakineh; JALALI, Gholam Reza . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159  Annualized catastrophe mortalities and driving long term risk reduction  MUIR-WOOD, Robert. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159  Cultural Role in Risk and Disaster Management, A case study from Uganda, Africa  MUKASA, Abass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160  Kampala Capital City Authority. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160  Characteristics of safe and resilient communities and key determinants of successful disaster risk reduction programmes  MUKHIER, Mohammed Omer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 83
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  MÜNZBERG, Thomas (1); COMES, Tina (2); SCHULTMANN, Frank (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160  Evaluating disaster preparedness in West Sumatra  MURPHY, Eila Sinikka. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161  Risk shrink: exploring the psychology of risk  MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161  Understanding your risk environment  MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161  Controversy and crisis management  MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162  Land use change and human health in the Eastern Himalayas: an adaptive ecosystem  NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162  A reasonable success story of vertical evacuation against tropical cyclones in India  NIRUPAMA, Niru (1); MURTY, Tad (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162  Economic impact of disasters in the Caribbean and experience with CCRIF  NIXON, Michael. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163  Disasters in arctic areas  NJAA, Ove; GUDMESTAD, Ove Tobias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163  The role of land use planning in the disaster risk reduction  NOJAVAN, Mehdi (1); SADEGHIAN, Alireza (1); MOHAJERAN, Mahsa (2); SOBANI, Abdollah (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163  A study on the various types of community-based disaster management in mid-sized cities in Japan: a case study from Saijo City  OCHIAI, Chiho. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163  Extreme forest fires and predictive power of fire danger Indexes: a deepening in the Alpine region  OLIVERI, Stefano (4); COCCA, Giampaolo (1); CANE, Daniele (2); BARBARINO, Simona (2); COMINI, Bruna (1); GEROSA, Giacomo (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164  Security and safety of cross-border infrastructure  OLIVERO, Sergio (1); MIGLIORINI, Massimo (1); STIRANO, Federico (1); CALANDRI, Fabrizio (1); FAVA, Umberto (2). 64 1  Building Resilient Nations and Communities  OXLEY, Marcus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164  Developing realistic rapid earthquake damage evaluation method for decision making, using GIS. Case study: Iran Kerman city  PANAHI, Ali; VALIZADEH, Reza; KARIMZADEH, Morteza; FATHI, Leila . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165  Development of tsunami disaster response system in Korea  PARK, Hyoung Seong; HONG, Sung Jin; KIM, Dong Seag . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165  The benefits of alerting system based on standardised libraries  PARRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina (1); MULERO CHAVES, Javier (1); MENDES, Miguel (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165  Cross-border alerting  PÁRRAGA-NIEBLA, Cristina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166  From displacements to migrations: the earthquake of Messina (1908) and the earthquake of the Belice Valley (1968)  PARRINELLO, Giacomo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166  Towards an interdisciplinary framework for understanding the role of culture in the post disaster reconstruction process  PASUPULETI, Ram Sateesh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166  Risk for financial agencies in providing affordable disaster insurance to developing countries  PATEL, Saumyang M; HASTAK, Makarand PhD, PE, CCE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167  Assessing school safety from disasters- a baseline study (on video)  PETAL, Marla . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 84  Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece  PETSETI, Aglaia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167  Simulation and optimization of cascading effects - strategic multilayered risk management  PICKL, Stefan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168  The role of the European Standards for Construction (Eurocodes) for earthquake risk mitigation  PINTO, Artur; TAUCER, Fabio Federico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168  The importance of a systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of complex urban, regional, national or panEuropean systems comprising buildings, transportation, lifelines, utility networks and critical facilities  PITILAKIS, Kyriazis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 Contents  Critical infrastructure disruptions: a generic system dynamic approach for decision support IDRC DAVOS 2012  Governance in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: a pan European perspective  PLA, Francesc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169  Impact of climate change, land use change and residential mitigation measures on damage and risk assessment  POUSSIN, Jennifer K. (1,2); WARD, Philip J. (1,2); BUBECK, Philip (1,2,3); AERTS, Jeroen C.J.H. (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169  Design guidelines for human computer interfaces supporting fire emergency response  PRASANNA, Raj (1); YANG, Lili (2); KING, Malcolm (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169  Decision making for resilience in critical infrastructure governance  PRIOR, Tim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169  Risk cultures, the social construction of risk, and coordinated responses to global and systemic risks  PRIOR, Tim; GIROUX, Jennifer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170  Emergency Support System - ESS : The end-user perspective  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170  Crisis management and security research – an end user perspective  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170  MDA Response to a Mass Casualty Toxicological Accident  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171  Satellite application for non-structural flood risk management in Pakistan  RAFIQ, Lubna (1); BLASCHKE, Thomas (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171  Mitigation of global volatility of food supply/demand risk through innovations in crop insurance schemes  RAWAL, Sonia A. (1); BOISSONNADE, Auguste C. (1); TAN, John (2); SHAH, Haresh C. (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171  Risky talks and talking risks in disaster management: a way forward or backward?  RAY-BENNETT, Nibedita Shankar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172  Social Perspectives on Land Degradation and Desertification: The Case of Migration and Conflict  RECHKEMMER, Andreas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172  Risk culture: implications for risk governance  RENN, Ortwin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172  Social unrest: a systemic risk perspective  RENN, Ortwinn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172  Enhancing community resilience for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction – a case study from Cambodia  RIZVI, Ali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173  Disaster Risk Management in Schools – The Second Pillar  RODGERS, Ian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173  Development of guidelines for psychosocial support for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear (CBRN) incident  ROOZE, Magda W.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173  The dual use of field hospital in peace time and in war time. The Italian experience of Alpini field hospital during disasters.  ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra (1); FACCINCANI, Roberto (1); LOSAPIO, Lucio Pantaleo (2); CARLUCCI, Michele (1). . . . 174 85
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  RUDLOFF, Alexander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174  Role of local wisdom in rapidity of rehabilitation and reconstruction post earthquake in multireligious and monoreligious villages: a case in Bantul, Yogyakarta, Indonesia  RUSLANJARI, Dina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174  World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiative  SAITO, Keiko; KULL, Daniel; SODEN, Robert; BACA, Abigail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175  Sustainable reconstruction of critical infrastructure  SALEH, Alida. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175  The role of emergency transportation network in crisis management  SALEH, Fatemeh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176  Temporal and geographical variation of geo-hydrological risk to the population of Italy  SALVATI, Paola; BIANCHI, Cinzia; ROSSI, Mauro; GUZZETTI, Fausto. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176  Crisis, communication, social media  SCHANNE, Michael. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176  The relevance of Integrative Risk Management to RCRC programming  SCHMALE, Matthias. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176  On risk governance - a reinsurer's view  SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177  Severe accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe: possible consequences and mapping of risk  SEIBERT, Petra (1); ARNOLD, Delia (1,4); MRAZ, Gabriele (3); ARNOLD, Nikolaus (2); GUFLER, Klaus (2); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (2); SUTTER, Philipp (3); WENISH, Antonia (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177  A Global Mapping of Disaster Risk Reduction Curriculum  SELBY, David; KAGAWA, Fumiyo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177  Analyzing the urban functions to prioritize urban flood resilient actions  SERRE, Damien (1); LHOMME, Serge (1); TOUBIN, Marie (1); DIAB, Youssef (1); LAGANIER, Richard (2). . . . . . . . . . . 178  Formation mechanism, process and risk evaluation system of disaster chain  SHI, Peijun (1,2,3); WANG, Jing’ai (1,3,4); XU, Wei (2,3); SHUAI, Jiabing (1,2); LU, Lili (1,2); KONG, Feng (1,2); SHI, Qinqing (5) 178  Relationship of the environmental risk and surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau - a remote sensing evidence approach  SHI, Qinqing (1); LIANG, Shunlin (1); SHI, Peijun (2,3,4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178  Volunteers in disaster education centres: another important role of disaster education centres  SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179  What kind of disaster education should be explored after the Great East Japan Earthquake?  SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179  Spatio-temporal analyses of the impacts of extreme weather events on renewable energies and advancing local decisionmaking in climate mitigation concepts  SIEBER, Jeannette. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179  Black swans, shapeshifters and flexibility  SIKICH, Geary Wayne. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180  Disaster risk reduction and education  SIMONIAN, Guillaume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180  Policies for managing volatility in staple food prices in West Africa  STAATZ, John; DEMBÉLÉ, Niama Nango; DIALLO, Boubacar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180  Risk reduction index - methodology and preliminary findings  STEEN, Nicolai; CAMACHO, Belen; PALEY, Belen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 86  Impact of the 2011 drought among communities in Afghanistan  SUMAR, Salim; TAJ, Laila Naz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181  Disaster management information network - a community-based multi-hazard early warning information communication process  SYED, Md. Abu (1); RAHMAN, A.K.M. Atiqur (2); MAAINUDDIN, Golam (3); AHMED, Atiq K. (4). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181  Policy impact and livelihood recovery of retailers in earthquake affected cities  TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182  Measuring industrial production capacity caking account of malfunctions of production capital and lifeline systems disruptions caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March, 2011 Contents  GITEWS - The German Contribution to the Indonesian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning system: experiences and lessons learned IDRC DAVOS 2012  TATANO, Hirokazu (1); KAJITANI, Yoshio (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182  Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe Directive (INSPIRE): contribution towards seismic risk and loss assessment  TAUCER, Fabio Federico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182  EU disaster risk reduction in the Asia Pacific: reducing the social vulnerability of children  TAYLOR, Genevieve. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183  FMEA, Most Common Risk Assessment Method in Industry  TEIMOORI, Hossein (1); BATHAEE, Reza (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183  Multi-Agency Surge Tactical Facility (MAST-F) - applicable lessons from a mobile hospital team  THRALLS, Michael Kellyn (1,2,3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183  Hazard management in a debris flow affected area – Spreitgraben, Switzerland  TOBLER, Daniel; KULL, Isabelle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184  School-based disaster risk reduction approach in building resilience for Central Vietnam  TONG, Thi My Thi; SHAW, Rajib . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184  Promote urban resilience through collaborative urban services management  TOUBIN, Marie (1,2,3); ARNAUD, Jean-Paul (1); SERRE, Damien (2); DIAB, Youssef (2); LAGANIER, Richard (3). . . . . 184  A critical pedagogy of risk: empowering children with knowledge and skills for DRR  TOWERS, Briony Clare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185  Mapping landslide risk in the Göta river valley, Sweden – methods and experiences  TREMBLAY, Marius; ANDERSSON-SKÖLD, Yvonne; BENGTSSON, Per-Evert; FALEMO, Stefan; ÖBERG, Mats. . . . . . . 185  A training program for disaster mitigation through urban planning  TURKOGLU, Handan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185  Disaster risk and vulnerability in coastal plains of Bangladesh: observations on human responses and local resilience to the effects of cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh  UDDIN, Mohammed Salim; HAQUE, C. Emdad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185  Community early warning systems: back to basics  UDU-GAMA, Natasha Marie (1); THOMALLA, Frank (2); CARNEGIE, Michelle (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186  An ecosystem-based resilience analysis of Infanta, Quezon, Philippines  UY, Noralene Menchavez; SHAW, Rajib. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186  Coping with floods in a riverbank-settlement in Jakarta, Indonesia. An interdisciplinary approach to human actor's heterogeneous risk-strategies  VAN VOORST, Roanne (1); HANDGRAAF, Michel (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186  Relationship between community empowerment and citizens' interest in participation in natural disaster management: case study earthquake at Tehran districts' level  VAZIRPOUR, Shabbou (1); REZAEI, Ali Akbar (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187  The role of pandemic plans in ethical preparedness and resilience  VIENS, A.M.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187  Boosting agricultural production and stabilizing farmers' income through index insurance in Vietnam  VINH, Dang The. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 87
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  WATSON, Samantha; RUDGE, James; COKER, Richard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188  Flood risk management – creating efficiency by stakeholder involvement  WEBLER, Heinrich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188  Future epidemics of malaria: the potential of climate change induced malaria and its potential mitigation in Sri Lanka  WEERESINGHE, Shayani. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188  GRIP-CERAM Shanghai - a new model of capacity building  WEN, Jiahong (1,2); VILLACIS, Carlos (3); YAN, Jianping (3); CHEN, Lei (1,2); YAN, Lijun (1,2); HUA, Zhenyang (1,2); YIN, Zhane (1,2); GRASSO, Veronica (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189  Security research from an end user perspective  WERNER, Heiko. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189  Lessons from various microinsurance schemes and key success factors  WILHELM, Mario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189  Flood risk management with limited data – case study Han River, China  WILLI, Christian (1); ELSENER METZ, Juerg (1); MEYER, Walter (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189  The need of disaster loss data - assessment of droughts in global databases  WIRTZ, Angelika; HENSELI, Marius . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190  Interregional economic impact analysis of the Wenchuan earthquake, China  WU, Jidong (1,2); LI, Ning (1,2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190  Risk communication and evacuation decision making: the case of residents in debris flow vulnerable area in Taiwan  WU, Jie-Ying. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190  Estimating casualties in future earthquakes for preparedness: probabilistically or deterministically?  WYSS, Max. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191  Identifying landslides using binary logistic regression and landslide detection index techniques  YANG, Wentao; WANG, Ming; SHI, Peijun. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191  A modern view to disaster management, concentrating on people with dynamic settlements (nomads) as a sustainable development standard  YAVAR, Bijan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191  Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network  YE, Jiayuan (1); YANG, Saini (1); ZHANG, Xuechi (2); HE, Shuai (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192  Social cost benefit analysis: a way to optimize net economic benefits  YEE, Chow Fah (1,2); TAN, Eu Chye (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192  Vulnerability assessment of cotton to hail in China based on historical records, field investigation and ground experiments  YUE, YaoJie (1,2); ZHAO, Jintao (3); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,4); YIN, Yuanyuan (1,2); YE, Xinyue (5); HUANG, Xiaoyun (1,2). 92 1  Measuring performance functionality of roads after earthquake  ZAMANIFAR, Milad (1); GIVEHCHI, Saeed (2); POORYARI, Maghsood (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193  Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of view: case study Europe / Germany  ZENTEL, Karl-Otto. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193  Continuing operations in a modern and efficient manner  ZEPPOS, John. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193  Mapping the flood disaster risk of metropolitan region in the Yangtze River Delta of China  ZHOU, Yin (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,3); XU, Wei (3,4); ZHOU, Yao (1,2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194  Chronicling and mapping the physical and social components of the 2009 flood disaster and the disaster risk reduction initiatives of urban poor communities in Metro Manila, Philippines  ZOLETA-NANTES, Doracie Baldovino (1); MARTINEZ, Simeona (2); DE VERA, Rocelyn (3); CAPARAS, Paulo (4); GERONIA, Mart Cyrel (5); ILAGAN, Marie Joyce (6); TINGIN, Neil Eneri (7). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 88 Poster Presentations 197  An integrated approach to delineation of eco-climatic zones in Northern Nigeria  ABDULKADIR, Aishetu (1); MUHAMMAD TSOWA, Usman (1); SHABA, Haliru Ayuba (2); SADAUKI, Abubakar (1). . . . 198  Role of thematic resettlement as eco-village in Sri Lanka  ABE, Miwa (1); SHAW, Rajib (2); TAKEUCHI, Yukiko (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198  Impact of arsenic mitigation program on socioeconomic aspects of the beneficiaries  AFRAD, Md. Safiul Islam; HOQUE, Md. Enamul. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198  Developing a comprehensive model for disaster resilient community Contents  “Embedded health systems analysis”: A framework for effective disaster mitigation & response IDRC DAVOS 2012  AGHABABAEI, Muhammad Taghi (1); FARZAD BEHTASH, Muhamad Reza (1); SALEHI, Esmaeil (2); SARMADI, Hajar (3). 99 1  The appropriation of the nature and the social construction of the risk in Angangueo, Michoacán, Mexiko  ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); ALARCÓN, Pablo (2); ORTIZ, Carlos (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199  Land use planning for disaster reduction in Uruapan, Michoacán, México  ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); BELTRAN, Jose (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199  Engineering education and the need to address some challenges of the 21st century, in terms of training transformation  ALLIA, Khedidja. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200  Development of a daily fire danger system  ARPACI, Alexander Duran (1); GRIMMA, L.N. (1); FORMAYER, H. (1); LEIDINGER, D. (1); BECK, A. (2); GRUBER, C (2); MÜLLER, M. (1); ALBERS, J. (1); VACIK, H. (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200  Fire risk and interactions with other natural hazards under the impact of climate change in Austria  ARPACI, Alexander Duran (1); VACIK, H. (1); SASS, O. (2); SAILER, R. (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200  Preparation of school disaster safety plans and simulation  BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201  Preparing and planning in disaster management  BANDARA, Nimal Piyasiri. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201  Introducing auditing of elements and measures of natural crisis management processes as an efficient tool for developing corrective actions  BANIZAMANLARI, Farhad (1); POURYARI, Maghsoud (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201  Impacts of climate change in geographically isolated areas: community perception from riverine islands of south-central and northern Bangladesh  BATEN, Mohammed Abdul (1,2); SEAL, Lubna (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202  Preventive family consultation with the approach of enhancing psychological resilience and its role in promoting postdisaster psychological preparedness and mental health  BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya (1,2); RAHATI, Ameneh (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202  Voluntary Community-Based Preventive Public Education(VCBPPE) before the disasters: a model to facilitate and expedite emergency treatment and improvement public health after disasters  BAZYARIZADEH, Yahya (1,2,3); RAHIMI GHASABEH, Saeid (4); RAHATI, Ameneh (5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202  Learning from crisis management exercises: a design science approach to exercise evaluation  BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); TEHLER, Henrik (2,3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203  Disaster management and linkages with climate change adaptation  BHADRA, Manash Ronjan; KANAK, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak; ISLAM, Rabiul. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203  The role of management information systems to response to crisis management  BOZORGIMAKARANI, RezaAli (1); MAHRDADI, Naser (2); MOHAMMADI, Seyedabolfazl (3); BAVANDPORI, Behruz (4). 03 2  Insurance cover for natural disasters  CHINNASWAMY, Kumar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204  Posttraumatic stress disorder and psychiatric co-morbidity following 2010 flood in Pakistan: the role of cognition distortion and suppression  CHUNG, Man Cheung (1); NASRULLAH, Muazzam (2); JALAL, Sabeena (3); KHAN, Najib Ullah (4). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 89
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  DE LA POMERAI, Garry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205  Seismic prediction and real time early warning make a perfect combination  DE LA POMERAI, Garry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205  Assessing inter-agency capital response to terrorism: adaptive coordination  DELGADO, Natalia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205  Measures of supply chain risk management  DESPOTOV, Steffen (1); ZHANG, Li (1); FRIEDRICH, Hanno (2); BALSTER, Andreas (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206  Insurance literacy for micro insurance awareness  DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206  Identification of critical infrastructures exposed to natural hazards: the main step towards the impact assessment on regional socio-economic systems  DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); LARI, Serena (2); BOUCHON, Sara (1); FRATTINI, Paolo (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206  Risk of ice shed from wind turbines  DRAPALIK, Markus; FORMAYER, Herbert; POSPICHAL, Bernhard; KROMP, Wolfgang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207  Best practices and new technologies in fire detection and suppression  DREIBACH, Joachim Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207  Gender and gender identity: the necessity of redefining  ELMI, Mahmoud (1); PANAHI, Ali (1); BAGHERI ZNOZ, Baharak (2); HASHEMZADEH, Abolfazl (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207  A Development Cooperation Erasmus Mundus Partnership for Capacity Building in Earthquake Mitigation Science and Higher Education  FAGGELLA, Marco (1); MONTI, Giorgio (1); BRAGA, Franco (1); GIGLIOTTI, Rosario (1); SPACONE, Enrico (2); LATERZA, Michelangelo (3); TRIANTAFILLOU, Thanasis (4); VARUM, Humberto (5); SAFI, Mohammad Dost (6,18); SUBEDI, Jishnu (7); DIXIT, Amod (8); LODI, Sarosh (9); RAHMAN, Zillur (10); LIMKATANYU, Suchart (11); XIAO, Yan (12); YINGMIN, Li (13); KUMAR, Hari (14); SALVATORE, Walter (15); CECCHINI, Alberto (16); LUKKUNAPRASIT, Panitan (17). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208  Institutional responses to coastal hazards: a comparative perspective  FISCHHENDLER, Itay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208  IRGC concepts and tools for risk governance  FLORIN, Marie-Valentine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209  The influence of technology transfer management in improving the performance of risk management of natural disaster in rail transportation: a case study in Iran  GANJEHI, Sajad (1); NAJARI, Alireza (1); NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); AHMADI, Babak (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209  A seismic swarm: a social lab to promote earthquake preparedness  GRANADO, Carolina; AGUILAR, Antonio; VASQUEZ, Raquel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209  What do disasters teach us about economics?  GREEN, Colin; VIAVATTENE, Christophe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209  Consciousness and knowledge of disaster reduction helps reduction of earthquake disaster  HE, Yongnian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210  Ethics and risk in finance  HEINEMANN, Simone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210  GERIHCO - An interdisciplinary approach to understand the muddy floods risk (Alsace - France)  HEITZ, Carine (1); GLATRON, Sandrine (2); ROZAN, Anne (1); AUZET, Anne Véronique (3); WINTZ, Maurice (4) . . . . . 210  Path selection model and algorithm for emergency evacuation during earthquake disaster  HU, Fuyu; XU, Wei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210  New approaches for integrated monitoring of slopes movements in mountain regions: the Interreg project "SloMove"  IASIO, Christian (1); STRADA, Claudia (2); CHINELLATO, Giulia (1); MAIR, Volkmar (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211  Educating preschool children on earthquakes using simulators  National efforts and the challenge of disaster in Nigeria  JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211  How to measure efficiency in risk prevention?  JOHANSSON, Magnus (1,3); JALDELL, Henrik (2,3); ANDERSSON-SKÖLD, Yvonne (4); NYBERG, Lars (1); BERGMAN, Ramona (4); PERSSON, Erik (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212  Precautionary evacuation operations using decision analysis: application to catastrophic flood event  KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212  Inter-model influence diagram analysis using modular elicitation methods for evacuation decision-making  KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 Contents  Global design compliance and land issues challenges and regulatory barriers IDRC DAVOS 2012  Causes that make developing countries more vulnerable in disasters in the case of flooding  KARIMI KIVI, Hamid; NAZARIHA, Mehrdad; ZAMANI, Elham; ROHOLLAHI, Mahboobeh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213  Assessment effects of River Vegetation Density Index (RVDI) in recognition of damageable areas during torrents  KAZEMZADEH, Mohammad Bagher; GHADBEIGI, Vahid; RADMEHR, Hamed; HEIDARI, Morteza; NADERI PEYKAM, Mehdi; MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213  Evaluation of natural period depending on the structure system  KIM, Jin_Seon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213  Empowerment of the community after a fire - residents' meeting as psycho-social intervention  KORVENRANTA, Tiina (1); MANNINEN, Annika (2); SILVOLA, Sointu (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213  Assessing direct damage and losses due to the disruption of production processes caused by natural hazards in Europe  KREIBICH, Heidi; BUBECK, Philip. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214  Reinforced flexible systems for slope stabilization: an outstanding technology, fully proved in the Iberian area  LAGUNA MEGAL, Luis Miguel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214  Building resilience and reducing vulnerability through integrated risk management in mountain areas  LALANI, Farrukh Salim; BROIMSHOEVA, Rukhshona. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214  Community resilience - expanding grass roots approach to develop capacity and sustainability  LOVE, Gavin John. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215  Soil loss and dust release in farmland during extreme dust storms in China  LU, Yanli (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215  Recent climate change in Iran – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature  MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Sina; ZARE, Ali; BAHRAMI, Hossein Ali; TAVAKOLI, Pourya; KHODABAKHSHI, Soudabeh . 215  Building organisational disaster resilience: lessons from Australian bushfire  MARCH, Alan Peter; STURUP, Sophie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216  Preparedness arising from vulnerability and the value of resilience during the latest climate change episode in Zanzibar  MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216  Reproducing the lakou: the role of vernacular settlement patterns in post-disaster temporary settlements  MILLER, James Patrick. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216  The effect of community trust in adopting protective measures in Tehran city  MIRMOHAMMAD HOSSEINI, Kiandokht (1,2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217  Community empowerment for effective corporate supply chain logistics in the present economic crisis  MITRA, Swati. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217  Capacity building of school children- case study from India  MITRA, Swati; BHANDARI, Mandeep . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217  Lessons learned from massive damage assessment and reconstruction strategies in 2010 Haiti earthquake  MIYAMOTO, Kit H.; GILANI, Amir S.J.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217  Optimal selection of recovery strategies after earthquakes, considering interdependencies of infrastructures using dynamic Leontief Input-Output Model  MOGHIMI, Sanam; OMIDVAR, Babak; NAZARIHA, Mehrdad; MOUSAVI, S.Mostafa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218  IZADKHAH, Yasamin O.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 90 91
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  MOHAMMADI, Sakineh; NOROOZI, Belal; MOZAFARI, Abdollah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218  CDM, dam and disaster management of Climate Change  MOHAMMADI, Seyed Abolfazl (1); AFSOUS, Mahmood (2); EBRAHIMZADEH, Hesam (3); HOUSHYANI, Bamshad (4). 218 Caracas Seismological Museum: A space to develop an interactive experience between the community and the Venezuelan seismic culture. MORENO, Daniel; GRIMAN, Cristobal; MARIN, Wilmer; GRANADO, Carolina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 Preliminary analysis of the 1985 Mexican earthquake by applying the Management Oversight and Risk Tree ALVARADO-CORONA, Rafael; SANTOS-REYES, Jaime; MOTA-HERNANDEZ, Dra. Cinthya Ivonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219  How to build a BCM Brand  MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219  Time-varying beta risk of Turkish industry portfolios: a comparison of GARCH and Kalman filter modelling techniques  NESLIHANOGLU, Serdar; MCCOLL, John. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220  Gender stereotypes and disaster vulnerabilities  NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna; PINCHA, Chaman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220  Evaluating and improving the railway safety against flood  NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); MOHAMMADI, Bahram malek (2); GANJEHI, Sajad (1); BAVANDPOR, Behrooz (1); FALLAH, Khalil (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220  Amphibious houses and fiscal incentives: revitalizing local economies of flood-prone areas  NOROUZI KHATIRI, Khadije (1); MOHAMMADI, Bahram malek (2); GANJEHI, Sajad (1); BAVANDPOR, Behrooz (1); FALLAH, Khalil (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221  The importance of the cultural approach to relocate the survivors of mount Merapi : a case study of survivors of Glagaharjo Community  NUZULIA, Yorsi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221  Processual political methodology as a legitimate response to pluralism and uncertainty issues  ORNAF, Julia (1); RAMBAUD, Alexandre (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221  Feasibility studies for optimum establishment of rural at risk of natural disasters  PANAHI, Ali (1); ELMI, Mahmoud (1); TAJBAKHSHSHISHVAN, Shabnam (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222  Utilization plan of seismic acceleration monitoring data  PARK, Ki Jong. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222  The first specialized maneuver of water and wastewater industry of Tehran at earthquake crisis  PARVARESH, Mohammd (1); REZA AHMAD NASAB, Mohammad (2); REZA SHARIF VAGHEFI, Hamid (3); ABPARVAR, Ahamd (4); SHEYBANY, Farzam (5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222  Shalstab application to identify the susceptible areas of shallow landslides in Cunha River Watershed, Rio Dos Cedros City, SC, Brazil  PEREIRA REGINATTO, Gisele Marilha (1); MACCARINI, Marciano (1); KOBIYAMA, Masato (1); HIGASHI, Rafael Augusto dos Reis (1); GRANDO, Ângela (1); CORSEUIL, Cláudia Weber (2); LIMA CARAMEZ, Manolo (1); FEILSTRECKER, Lais Brandao (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223  Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece  PETSETI, Aglaia (1); NEKTARIOS, Milton (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223  The tipping points of socioecological systems: Romans vs. Incas  PLACHETKA, Uwe (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (1); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223  Providing medical support to large scale public gatherings  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); CASPI, Guy (1); DEL ALAMO GIMENEZ, Alfonso (2); LATASCH, Leo (3); HOPMEIER, Michael (4) 223  Urban service monitoring system (UrSMS): reducing health risks through active monitoring in Surat, India  RAJASEKAR, Umamaheshwaran; BHAT, Gopalakrishna; KARANTH, Anup. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224  Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organizations  Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organization  ROUSSY, Sandrine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225  Development of methodology for post-earthquake reconstruction planning of lifelines  SABAGHZADEH, Hossein (1); ZAMANIFAR, Milad (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225  Natural disasters and climate change: safe school design and construction  SALEH, Alida. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225  Reconstituting community in the aftermath of nuclear terrorism  SCHOCH-SPANA, Monica Lynn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226  Study of agricultural drought coping and ecological feedback - taking Hebei Province in North China as an example Contents  Disaster Management Bases Site Selection Using GIS in Tehran, Iran IDRC DAVOS 2012  SHANG, Yanrui (1,2); SHEN, Haifeng (1,2); YANG, Jingpo (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226  Multilayer disaster education through collaboration between a disaster education centre and a local university  SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 Adapting the” Paho Hospital Safety Index” for hospitals in Iran HABIBI, Kiomarth (2); SHIEH, Esmaeil (1); SKANDARI, Mohamad amin (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 Evaluation of hospital vulnerability, three hospitals in Kerman-Iran. SHIEH, Esmaeil (1); HABIBI, Kiomarth (2); SKANDARI,Mohamad amin (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227  How specialised research fields of disaster management can be integrated?  SHIROSHITA, Hideyuki. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227  Monitoring of severe weather phenomena for the reduction of damage caused by them on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan  SMIRNOVA, Tatyana Yurevna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228  Comparative study of rural people’s attitudes towards risk in an earthquake-prone area: the case of rural high school students and head of households in Avaj County, Qazvin, Iran  SOLAIMANI, Roghaieh (1); BADRI, Seyed Ali (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228  Human preparedness and response to risk: a neuroscience perspective  SULLIVAN, Helen T (1); HÄKKINEN, Markku T (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228  Features of sea ice disaster in the Bohai Sea in 2010  SUN, Shao (1,2,3); SHI, Peijun (1,2,4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229  Geospatial pattern and trend in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh  SYED, Md. Abu (1); AL AMIN, Mohammed (2); RAHMAN, A.K.M. Atiqur (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229  Housing reconstruction policies and socio-spatial transformation of the built environment in old fabric of earthquakeaffected cities  TAHERI TAFTI, Mojgan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229  New disaster mangement system in Turkey  TETIK, Cigdem; OZENER, Suleman Kaan; GOKCE, Oktay; TUFEKCI, Mustafa Kemal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230  Reframing risk- and responsibility-sharing in flood risk management in England and Austria  THALER, Thomas A.; VIAVATTENE, Christophe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230  State and social factors in global disasters: topological scope  TRUFANOV, Andrey (1); TIKHOMIROV, Alexei (2); CARUSO, Antonio (3); RODYGYNA, Albina (1); ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra (4); SHUBNIKOV, Evgeniy (5); UMEROV, Rustem (6). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230  Integrated Flood Management in the context of climate change: case study Vietnam  VAN STAVEREN, Martijn Floris. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231  Use of crowdsourcing in post-disaster damage assessment  VILLANUEVA HOLM-NIELSEN, Pablo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231  The seismic vulnerability base on macroeconomic indicators and risk evaluation in Asia  WANG, Xiaoqing (1); YUAN, Xiaoxiang (1); DING, Xiang (1); LI, Zhi (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231  ROUSSY, Sandrine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 92 93
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 IDRC DAVOS 2012  A novel participatory sensing method for monitoring crowd conditions by collecting GPS location traces from pedestrians' mobile phones for real-time crowd management during city-scale mass gathering  HEISS, Julia (1); SIMONIAN, Guillaume (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244  WIRZ, Martin (1); FRANKE, Tobias (2); MITLETON-KELLY, Eve (3); ROGGEN, Daniel (1); LUKOWICZ, Paul (2); TRÖSTER, Gerhard (1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232  The need for developing a culture of earthquake shelters to render early warning useful  WYSS, Max. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232  Urban security based on IOT  YAN, Lijun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232  Application of FMEA and HFMEA Techniques as Risk Assessment Tools for contingency Planning  HUPPERTZ, Stephan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245  Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into climate change adaptation strategies: a governance point of view  INNOCENTI, Demetrio (1); PLA, Francesc (2); ZENTEL, Karl-Otto (3); MYSIAK, Jaroslav (4). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246  Increasing disaster resilience through participative development of standards in land management, urban planning and construction  SoTech Risks an important context to be taken into consideration Contents  KATARIA, Shailesh (1); JOHNSON, Cassidy (2); MURRAY-JONES, Douglas (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246  YARMOHAMMADIAN, Mohammad Hossein (1); ATIGHECHIAN, Golrokh (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233  Natech risk reduction after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami  KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (1); CRUZ, Ana Maria (2); TATANO, Hirokazu (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247  YAVAR, Bijan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233  Progress and new initiatives in IRG project/IHDP  Challenges and opportunities in building a resilient city  KUNDAK, Seda. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248  YE, Qian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233  Rural areas in Turkey and their reasons being vulnerable  Resilient development practice – from fragmentation towards integration; from theory into action  LATHAM, Stephen J. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248  YILMAZ, Didem Gunes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234  Research on region regularity of disaster chains in Gansu Province China  Collectors, coordinators and directors - innovation in the management of disasters  LOVE, Gavin John (1); MIYAMOTO, Kit (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249  YU, Han (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2,3); SHI, Qinqing (2,4); YIN, Yuanyuan (1,2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234  Investigating weather parameters affecting snow avalanching in Alborz Mountains, Iran.  Financing the green transformation: opportunities and challenges ahead  MANGALAGIU, Diana (1); YE, Qian (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249  ZARE BIDAKI, Rafat (1); LEHNING, Micheal (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 Session & Workshops  “Taking preparedness seriously” – Revisiting the gaps and challenges in linking early warning and timely response between community and government levels 237  Special Swiss Re session on financial tools for disaster risk management  BAUR, Esther. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238  The evaluation of UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme – Analyzing the results and findings of a forward looking evaluation process  BUHNE, Neil (1); OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe (2); GHESQUIERE, Francis (3); WIRTZ, Angelika (4); STOESSEL, Franz (5); VANDYCK, Rafael (6); LEON, Esteban (7); VILLACIS, Carlos (8); REGO, Loy (9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238  Tackling risk in agriculture  CASTLE, Paul; ZHOU, Yuan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238  Strengthening resilience in the context of learning and transformation  CLOT, Nicole (1); STOLZ, Nicole (2); JOEHR, Anton (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239  The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ science  DE LA POMERAI, Garry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240  Integrated risk assessment: what kind of multi-risk analysis to support the risk reduction decision-making process?  DIMAURO, Carmelo; BOUCHON, Sara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240  Global exposure monitoring for multi-hazards risk assessments  DOLCE, Mauro (1); EHRLICH, Daniele (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241  Social media and linguistics as part of an integrative risk management  EGGENBERGER, René (1); SCHANNE, Michael (2); ESMAIL, Zarah (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241  Elsevier Author Workshop – How to write a scientific paper… and get it published  EVE, Katherine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242  Mobilising the creation of a risk governance culture  FLORIN, Marie-Valentine (1); RENN, Ortwin (2); SCHRECKENBERG, Stephan (3); MOLIN-VALDES, Helena (4); PRIOR, Tim (5) 242  European critical infrastructures: which analysis framework for supporting effective decision making?  GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios; FILIPPINI, Roberto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243  Progress and new initiatives in IRG Project/IHDP  MANGALAGIU, Diana (1,2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250  The future of alerting the public – discussion of human behavior, information expectations and technology use in an intercultural context  MEISSEN, Ulrich (1); DRESSEL, Kerstin (2); KLAFFT, Michael (1,3); PÁRRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250  Water security: responses to local, regional, and global challenges  MISHRA, Anil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251  A converging vision of resilience building between the private sector and civil society  MITCHELL, Andrew . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251  Understanding your risk environment  MURPHY, Sean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252  Towards a safer world: a whole-of-society approach to dsaster preparedness  NABARRO, David; WANNOUS, Chadia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253  Disaster risk reduction in the Hindu Kush – Himalayan Region  NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253  ESS project – technical and conceptual challenges  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); HAZZANI, Gideon (2); MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien (3); HERRERO, Jose (4); RIVAS, Pablo (4); EFTYCHIDIS, George (5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254  Mass casualty incidents – lessons learned  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); LATASCH, Leo (2); CASPI, Guy (1); LEIS, Carmen (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255  Same problem – different solutions  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (1); LATASCH, Leo (2); LEIS, Carmen (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255  Improved Risk information to support sound policy/decision making processes – The UNDP’s Global Risk Identification Programme, GRIP’s experience  SCHEUER, Jo (1); VILLACIS, Carlos (2); OSUNA MILLÁN, José Guadalupe (3); BELOW, Regina (4); WEN, Jiahong (5); DIXIT, Amod (6). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256  Special Swiss Re session on economics of disasters – costs and financing mechanisms  SCHNARWILER, Reto. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256  Education for disaster risk reduction 94 95
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 IDRC DAVOS 2012  Natura hazard resilient cities  SERRE, Damien (1); LAGANIER, Richard (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257  Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world  SHI, Peijun (1); JAEGER, Carlo (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257  Recent and future developments in EU security research. From a counter-terrorism focus towards a wider support for natural and accidental large scale crisis or disasters.  SIMONART, Tristan (1); AMBS, Peter (2); ALEXANDER, David (3); WERNER, Heiko (4); GRAN, Hans-Christian (5); ALKHUDHAIRY, Delilah (6); RAFALOWSKI, Chaim (7). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Contents  Ubiquitous technology to facilitate preparedness, practice, and situational awareness before, during, and after disasters  SULLIVAN, Helen T (1); HÄKKINEN, Markku T (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258  The benefits of standardisation in reducing seismic risk  TAUCER, Fabio Federico; PINTO, Artur. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258  Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction: Moving from Theory to Practice  THUMMARUKUDY, Muralee (1); ESTRELLA, Marisol (1); BOE, Kaia (2); MURTI, Radhika (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259  Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness - PART 1  TSCHURR, Simon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259  Building awareness – be ready to strengthen national response mechanism: different actor’s lessons with experiences to improve preparedness - PART 2  TSCHURR, Simon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260  Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management  VILLACIS, Carlos; YAN, Jianping. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260  Public empowerment policies for crisis management  VOS, Marita (1); HYVÄRINEN, Jenni (1); STAL, Marc (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261  Swiss early warning system for natural hazards  WERNER, Christoph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261  Capacity Building for Social-Ecological Resilience  WILLIAMS, James Herbert . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262  “Making the connection” – practical experiences on linking disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and ecosystem management  WUTTGE, Eva Maria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262  Models and modeling to assist capacity building for coping with very large-scale disasters  YE, Qian; WANG, Ming. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263  Rio+20 and the future of sustainability and disaster risk reduction  ZENTEL, Karl-OTTO (1); RECHKEMMER, Andreas (2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 Author Index 96 265 97
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 IDRC DAVOS 2012 Oral presentations Oral Presentations 98 99
  •  Mainstreaming Pandemic Preparedness into MultiHazard Readiness  ABDULLAH (TBC), Amir  World Food Program, Italy  Presenting author: ABDULLAH (TBC), Amir  amir.abdulla@wfp.org  Validation of disaster response mechanisms through pandemic preparedness and response exercises at country and regional levels.  Safe water adaptability index for salinity, arsenic and drought risk in south-west of Bangladesh  ABEDIN, Md. Anwarul; SHAW, Rajib  Kyoto University, Japan  Presenting author: ABEDIN, Md. Anwarul  masumagriculture@yahoo.com  In 21st century, availability of safe drinking water is the most challenging problem for the world. The present water resource of world is like Coleridge’s novel’s condition of actor “water; water everywhere, but there no drop to drink”. Some of the countries in the world have severe water scarcity, but this type of worst scenario is also observed in southwest part of Bangladesh. Though, it is claimed that 16 percent of world’s safe water are in Bangladesh, but especially, southwest part of Bangladesh suffers scarcity of pure drinking water due to groundwater arsenic along with salinity intrusion and drought. To overcome the crisis of safe drinking water of this region, different international organizations, GO, NGOs, private sectors and community people are trying to cope with this. Most of them have paid their attention as single issue rather than combined. However, the problem of safe water scarcity arises through salinity, arsenic and drought that are intimately inter-linked with each other. Therefore, it is urgent to include all the issues by developing an integrated approach which will help to find a successful solution for accessing safe drinking water in the affected area. Hence, this study developed a holistic approach named “SIPE” to determine safe water adaptability index and applied it at 16 sub-districts (upazila) of Khulna and Satkhira districts in southwestern Bangladesh. It helps to measure existing level of different physico-chemical, socio-economic, environmental and institutional conditions of the targeted area and provides an overview of safe water adaptability index. Using SIPE approach, the results highlight that institutional dimension of 16 upazila has higher safe water adaptability index compare to physiochemical, socio-economic and environmental dimension. This study further tries to link this approach into policy level which facilitates to adapt and practice it through national level to local level in a sustainable way.  Keywords: Safe water adaptability index, Salinity, Arsenic, Drought, Bangladesh  A study of the performance of risk and vulnerability assessments by Swedish Public Agencies  ABRAHAMSSON, Marcus (1,2); ERIKSSON, Kerstin (1,2); HASSEL, Henrik (1,2); PETERSEN, Kurt (1,2); TEHLER, Henrik (1,2)  1: Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management, Sweden; 2: Department of Fire Safety Engineering and Systems Safety, Lund University, Sweden  Presenting author: PETERSEN, Kurt 100 IDRC DAVOS 2012  kurt.petersen@lucram.lu.se  Risk and vulnerability assessments (RVA) are vital components of the work conducted by public agencies at different levels, as part of the processes for governing and managing risks in the society. In Sweden, public agencies at all levels are required by legislation to perform risk and vulnerability assessments within their respective area of responsibility. The present paper presents a study of how Swedish municipalities, county administration boards and national authorities work with RVAs, with a special focus on three aspects of such assessments that are highlighted in the legislation: vital societal functions, critical dependencies, and capability assessment. The main data collection technique was semi-structured interviews and a total of 25 actors were included and interviewed. The goal was to achieve a good representation of the different actors that perform RVAs. Thus 5 national authorities, 5 county administration boards, and 15 municipalities were chosen in order to obtain a representative functional distribution (in terms of national authorities responsible for different sectors), geographic distribution as well as size distribution. In addition, risk and vulnerability assessments produced by the interviewed actors over the last five years have been analyzed in order to complement the data from the interviews. The study shows that there is rather large variety of approaches, perspectives and views adopted by different actors, all with different advantages and drawbacks. It is argued that the findings of the study can be used to improve the RVA-practices of public authorities.  Keywords: Risk and Vulnerability Analysis, Vital societal functions, Critical dependencies, Capability assessments  Building community resilience by integrating disaster risk reduction and health system strengthening  AEBISCHER, Christina; JOEHR, Anton  Swiss Red Cross, Switzerland  Presenting author: AEBISCHER, Christina  christina.aebischer@redcross.ch  Honduran and Swiss Red Cross started relief and reconstruction programs after hurricane Mitch in 1998, applying a community based approach to strengthen local capacities and focusing on two rural areas covering 200 most vulnerable communities (60’000 people) in 6 municipalities marked by absence of health care services and disaster management and highly exposed to natural hazards. The integrated approach is implemented at household, community and authorities’ level, interlinking risk mitigation and disaster preparedness, public health, education and territorial management. A core strategy lies in strengthening capacities by organization, training and equipment of local committees, linked to and recognized by relevant authorities. Local risk assessments are combined with scientific risk analysis and provide planning instruments for local committees, local and regional authorities and Red Cross programs. Community based capacity strengthening leads to knowledgeable and healthier communities which are able to monitor and manage their risks and improve coping mechanisms. Traditional knowledge combined with scientific analysis improves communities’ ability to adapt to new or changing risks appearing under the climate change impact. The local committees are recognized by and linked to the regional and national systems (health and DM) providing them access to external services and resources. Infrastructure measures do not only mitigate local risks but are an important part of the capacity strengthening process as the community participates fully in planning, fund raising, implementation and maintenance. The integration of health and disaster risk reduction improves the knowledge about the environmental health – healthy environment circle, leading to better management of natural resources and assets. Integrating community based DRR and health system strengthening can contribute to strengthening resilience of local communities. The approach shows a high potential for scaling up and enlarged multi-sector and multi-stakeholder strategies.  Building national pandemic preparedness through strengthening non health sectors: Indonesia’s lesson learnt)  AGUSTIONO, Emil  Coordinating Ministry for People's Welfare, Indonesia, Republic of  Presenting author: AGUSTIONO, Emil  emil.agustiono@gmail.com  All over the word, especially in developing countries, both population growth and economic growth exert considerable pressure on the natural resources of a system. Therefore, high urbanization rate, especially around the cities, is considered as a potential flood risk if enhanced economic activities such as the construction of buildings and infrastructure are concentrated in floodplains. However, Because of the inappropriate utilization of water resources, soil and vegetation and together with unplanned cities development, these areas become more vulnerable to floods. Paying attention to prevention phase can play a determinant role in reducing flood risks. Applying a series of instructions for building reinforcement and flood management in urban areas can dramatically reduce floods effect. By studying crisis management systems in developing countries in the past floods, this article attempts to express how floods may be intensified by urbanism. Nevertheless, one can come up with a set of solutions such as flood warning systems; retrofitting of lifelines. In addition, continuous monitoring of hazards sources such as rivers and dams may be used to reduce losses and casualties in urban areas. Obviously, using the research findings can improve flood management in urban areas.  Crisis Management: Needs, Gaps and Opportunities  AL KHUDAIRY, delilah Helen  European Commission, Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: AL KHUDAIRY, delilah Helen  delilah.al-khudhairy@ec.europa.eu  The number of disaster events is trending up. The first half of 2011 already produced more disasters than most years before 2006. In 2011, weather accounted for about 90% of the 820 recorded natural disasters, which included floods, tornadoes and storms. This increasing trend adds a strain on practitioners engaged in emergency preparedness and response. Decision-makers and practitioners need trusted, reliable and sustainable information and tools that they can easily integrate in their operational workflow to help them to be better prepared for recognizing emerging threats and for responding to them in a timelier manner. The European Commission’s in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre, is engaged in research activities that are contributing to enhancing the capability of the EU and its partners in disaster resilience, anticipation and response. These research activities are underpinned by the recently inaugurated European Crisis Management Laboratory, ECML, which serves as a R&D testing and validation facility for ICT focused solutions, integrating devices, applications, and crisis management related information sources to support crisis management needs including threats analysis, situational awareness, early warning and collaborative decision making. The ECML supports tests in a range of crisis scenarios, from intentional threats and natural disasters to health crises. Visual analytics for improving information analysis and visualisation in large video screen environments form an integral part of the Laboratory’s R&D programme. One of the Laboratory’s core goals is to build cooperation with European research facilities, industry, users in governmental organisations and others to establish a network of Pan - European research and testing facilities focusing on ICT for crisis management. One of the expected achievements of the network is a contribution to addressing gaps in standards for data, threat assessments, early warning and organisational interoperability as well as guidelines and criteria for experimental design and technology benchmarking.  Building a safe municipality Morelia, Michoacàn, Méxiko  ALARCÓN, Patricia (1); NOCCETI, Manuel (2); DÍAZ, Rogelio (2)  1: Institute for Research on Risk Management. INIGER .Morelia,México; 2: The Municipality of Morelia, Michoacán.  Presenting author: ALARCÓN, Patricia  gestionriesgos@gmail.com  Physiographically the municipality of Morelia, Michoacán, México is located in the south central axis of the neovolcanic zone, creating the presence of different geological and hidrometeorological hazards. In this paper will be presented the results of public policies, which were generated from the incorporation of the risk management process as a core element in the planning of development for the municipality of Morelia. The first section refers to the methodologies, models and procedures for the evaluation of threats and vulnerabilities and risk maps. The second part provides a summary from the analysis of indicators of risk management according to the criteria of the (BID), evaluated at the municipal level. And in the last section, is presented a summary of public policy development to contribute to the construction of a safe municipality  Keywords: Hazards, indicators earthquake,landslide,floods of risk, land use, How to motivate private sector participants to invest in mitigating and adapting to systemic risks  ALDRICH, Stephen C.  bio-era, United States of America  Presenting author: ALDRICH, Stephen C.  saldrich@bio-era.net  Fundamental to effective global preparedness and response to systemic threats is a highly motivated private sector. But what motivates private actors to take a systemic risk seriously, and once engaged, how can private sector strengths 101 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  University of Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  Presenting author: AL-MOMANI, Ayman Hassan  aal-momani@ut.edu.sa This study discusses the assessment and management of flood risks at the city of Tabuk, ‎initiatives taken by the government to mitigate the damages, the successes and failures of ‎these initiatives, and the most recent developments in disaster risk management towards saver ‎city. In this respect, GIS, digital elevation model (DEM), aerial photographs and aeromagnetic ‎data sets used as a helpful tool of data analysis.‎ A great benefit of the method applied in this paper is the possibility of conducting subsequent ‎analyses with GIS, when incorporation of integrated workflow across the governmental ‎agencies for creating, enhancing, and updating GIS databases that can be easily shared both ‎within and between organizations. This allows planners and citizens to quickly and efficiently ‎create and test alternative development scenarios and determine their likely impacts on land ‎use patterns and associated population and employment trends, thus allowing public officials to ‎make informed planning decisions.‎ This shows the compelling need to increase the municipality’s resilience against flooding ‎through adoption a non-structural disaster reduction schemes to supplement existing efforts. ‎The other important output of this study is to document the 102 current legal, institutional, and ‎organizational arrangements, the status of community participation in flood management with ‎particular reference to information on flood forecasting and warning, risk management, coping ‎practices of the community and assistance provided by government. This kind of investigation ‎would enable planners and policymakers to evolve a strategy to solve similar problems ‎elsewhere. The results obtained could be useful about the decision makers, risk analysts and ‎safety measures in the future similar situations.‎  Keywords: flood risk  FASTID project - FAST and efficient international disaster victim IDentification  AMBS, Peter  INTERPOL, France  Presenting author: AMBS, Peter  p.ambs@interpol.int  The FAST and efficient international disaster victim IDentification (FASTID) Project was launched on 1 April 2010 with an overall budget of almost EUR 3 million, cofunded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) – Theme no. 10 Security. The project will establish an international system to manage enquiries concerning missing persons and unidentified bodies in the event of disasters as well as day-to-day policing. With its approach the project is under way to create the first ever police database to identify and link missing persons and unidentified bodies on an international level. The MPUB database at INTERPOL's General Secretariat in Lyon will have decentralized access for use in conjunction with disasters and everyday policing. It will be based on INTERPOL’s Ante-Mortem (AM) Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) and Post-Mortem (PM) DVI forms together with Yellow Notice (missing persons) and Black Notice (unidentified bodies) forms. Currently accepted minimum international standards for the collection of data to identify victims and software will serve as a starting point, while rich Internet application methods and additional identification techniques will enhance the system. The database will include its own search capabilities for some identifiers and will interface with other databases for others, for example, fingerprints, DNA. It will be accessible to INTERPOL National Central Bureaus and DVI teams via INTERPOL’s I-24/7 and https (secured Internet) communication systems. It will be integrated and synchronized with INTERPOL’s I-link in order to ensure coherent and consistent data in both systems.  2012-2025 roadmap of I.R.Iran's Health Disaster Management  ARDALAN, Ali (1); RAJAEI, Mohammad Hossein (1); MASOOMI, Gholamreza (2); AZIN, Seyed Ali (3); ZONOOBI, Vahid (2); SARVAR, Mohammad (2); VASKOUIE, Khorshid (2); AHMADNEZHAD, Elham (1); JAFARI, Gelareh (1)  1: I.R Iran National Institute of Health Research, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: I.R Iran Ministry of Health; 3: Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research  Presenting author: RAJAEI, Mohammad Hossein  hrajaie@gmail.com  Along with the Iran’s Comprehensive Health Sector Road Map, the National Institute of Health Research at the Tehran University of Medical Sciences developed the 2012-2025 road map of Health Disaster Management (HDM), including goals and objectives, strategies and action priorities and related prerequisites. This article presents process and results of this road mapping project. The project started with an expanded literature review followed by stakeholder analysis to assess level of interest and impact of related organizations to HDM, STEEP.V methodology to define determinants with a potential impact on Iran’s HDM for duration of 2012 to 2025, SWOT analysis, formulation of goals and objectives and related strategies and priority actions and prerequisites. Brain storming, group discussion and interview with key informants were used for data collection, nominal group technique was used whenever prioritization was necessary and Delphi panel was applied for consensus development. STEEP.V analysis revealed the most important determinants in terms of social, technological, environmental, economical, political and value-based. Iran’s HDM mission and vision were defined respectively as “mitigation from, preparedness for, response to and recovery from consequences of natural and man-made hazards at the community and health facilities and resources of I.R.Iran” and “In 2025, Iran’s HDM will be the most developed system in the region compromising the least vulnerability, the highest readiness in health facilities and resources and the highest and most effective contribution in disaster resilience of Iranian community”, respectively. Sixteen strategies and priority programs prerequisites actions were developed. This was the first attempt of comprehensive strategic planning in the field of HDM in Iran. The current framework provides Iran’s health system with a list of clear strategies and priority programs to be considered in operational planning and actions. It, however, requires a dynamic process of evaluation and revision to ensure meeting Iran’s health system goals in 2025.  Keywords: Disaster Health Management, Risk Management, Prevention, Disaster Response, Disaster Management Framework  Fuel cycle risks imposed by a nuclear growth scenario  ARNOLD, Nikolaus; GUFLER, Klaus; SHOLLY, Steven C.  University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, Republic of  Presenting author: ARNOLD, Nikolaus  nikolaus.arnold@boku.ac.at  To fight climate change and meet future energy demand, new investments in nuclear energy are proposed by several institutions (IEA, IAEA). Even in a post-Fukushima world a constant growth of nuclear energy share can be expected, at least in the developing economies of Asia. Due to the nature of nuclear energy of binding large resources and covering long time spans, it seems of high interest to have an in depth look at the front- and (back)end developing around a growing nuclear energy share. At the Institute of Security - and Risk Sciences work is currently carried out, to outline the actual structure of the nuclear fuel cycle and a comparison with the near-term needs and further with long-term needs shall be performed. Having a look at the fuel cycle as a whole, can identify potential bottlenecks and risks in the structure, such as missing capacities for enrichment and fuel fabrication and furthermore show where further investments in the infrastructure are needed in order to support the nuclear growth. The work targets towards illustrating and connecting the network of the fuel cycle. It covers uranium mining, milling, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication and fuel distribution to the operators and plants and also discuss the role of reprocessing in that matter. Taking into account that a strong trend towards the expansion of nuclear energy prevails especially in Asia, there will thus be a shift in the priorities of the nuclear industry to this region. It was found that not enough current or planned capacity is developed to support the rapid growth in this region. The conference contribution shall draw a comprehensive picture fuel supply network and encourage in-depth discussion on reducing future supply risks.  Keywords: nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear energy, supply risks  Risk concept for natural hazards on motorway in Switzerland  ARNOLD, Philippe Oral presentations and abilities best be integrated with public sector efforts? Recent history demonstrates that the key to catalyzing significant private sector investment toward mitigating or responding in advance of a systemic threat is private-sector education on the economic costs and consequences of failing to do so. This presentation will show how governmental and non-governmental authorities can leverage their position as highly-credible authorities regarding a variety of systemic threats (i.e., climate change, infectious disease, bioterrorism, etc.) to engage the private sector in ways that will effectively mobilize pre-disaster investment. This will require building more effective communication partnerships for explaining the economic consequences of inaction that leverage public and private sector strengths, while mutually benefitting both private and public sector actors. For example, the private sector has acknowledged the importance of communication from public health agencies around infectious disease threats. Companies rely heavily on the information and guidance from public health agencies to communicate with their employees and other stakeholders. Public health agencies such as WHO and the US CDC are seen as highly credible, trusted sources on public health threats and what to do about them. Though these and other agencies do an outstanding job in this role, the tangible value they provide in doing so is not always recognized by the private sector or other sectors of society. Likewise, when private companies have potential solutions to emerging disease threats, their motives often are called into question. This presentation will suggest specific ways the private and public sectors might help each other better identify and communicate the significance of emerging systemic threats.  management of flood risks at the city of Tabuk  AL-MOMANI, Ayman Hassan IDRC DAVOS 2012  FEDRO, Switzerland  Presenting author: ARNOLD, Philippe  philippe.arnold@astra.admin.ch  The Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO) has initiated a programme to analyse, assess and manage the risks associated with gravity induced natural hazards (rockfalls, landslides, avalanches, as well as floods and debris flows) on the motorway network in Switzerland. In a first step, the methodological background was developed in order to guarantee transparent and standardised hazard and risk assessment, as well as costefficient and cost effective management of the identified risks. Based on this methodology, the entire motorway network is now being assessed The hazard analysis assesses natural hazards in terms of their probability and extent. The methodology ensures that the scenarios are defined on the basis of uniform and transparent criteria. This is based on an evaluation of historical events, an examination of statistical data, the incorporation of indicators in the field, an assessment of predisposition in the area and an assessment of existing protective measures and the protection provided by forest. Based on the hazard formation the affected areas are filtered out and represented in the form of intensity maps. All risks are converted into a monetary value. The risk assessment examines whether the identified risks are acceptable or not. Furthermore, the methodology shows which criteria are used as a basis for setting priorities for planning measures. Processes and criteria are defined that make it possible to scrutinise measures and combinations of measures that minimise risks in terms of costs and benefits. The first stretches of motorway have meanwhile been assessed. In each case the findings obtained on site were documented on phenomenon maps and the impacts on the respective motorway stretches were presented in the form of intensity maps. The findings are very positive, but they also shed light on certain specific characteristics of motorway network analyses.  Keywords: analyse, asses, examine, manage and converte into a monetary value 103
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 Enabling small businesses to develop their business continuity plan: York University business continuity planning toolkit for small businesses  ASGARY, Ali; KONG, Albert Critical infrastructure vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction  BACH, Claudia  Most of the disaster and emergency management research and practice has been on individuals, families, communities and countries emergency management systems and capacities. Little attention has been paid to businesses, particularly small businesses. Community's survival very much depends on the ability of businesses to minimize risk and damage by anticipating the worst. Research show that small businesses are more vulnerable to disasters and emergencies and when impacted by disasters considerable number of them never reopen. It is while, that a simple but well thought business continuity plan can enhance businesses resiliency and capacity.  Critical infrastructures (CI) and particularly electricity supply build the backbone of modern societies. Infrastructures such as information and communication technology, water supply, or transport today are so interconnected that the failure of one of them could lead to cascading effects into a variety of sectors. Natural hazards thereby pose a threat to the maintenance of these services. This is especially relevant, as infrastructure services are particularly needed during and in the aftermath of a disaster in order to decrease the direct effects of the event on population and environment. It is thus important to understand the vulnerability of critical infrastructures towards different natural hazards (slow and sudden onset) which can have very different effects on the systems considered. Whereas sudden onset hazards have a devastating effect on the system components and destroy them physically, slow onset hazards such as heat waves and droughts rather affect processes. Regarding electricity supply, the 2003 European heat wave showed that mainly energy generation was restricted due to several reasons including shortages in coal deliveries as well as a lack of water availability for the cooling of power stations. Relating to this, the presentation will give an insight into quantitative, indicator based as well as on qualitative vulnerability assessment methods towards critical infrastructure for slow and sudden onset hazards using the example of flash floods and heat waves/dry spells. Methodologies were derived in cooperation with the German cities Wuppertal and Karlsruhe and encompass the vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure systems themselves (primary effects) as well as society’s vulnerability in case of a failure (secondary effects) of the mentioned hazards.  York University, Canada  Presenting author: ASGARY, Ali  asgary@yorku.ca Recent studies show that the lack of financial and human resources account for the absence of preparedness and business continuity planning by small businesses. In order to help small businesses develop their business continuity plan without additional costs and resources, we are developing a web based business continuity planning toolkit (York University Business Continuity Planning Toolkit -YUBCPT) that can be used by small businesses in Canada. It follows the existing standards in business continuity (Z1600, and BS25999). This toolkit not only teaches small businesses how to create their business continuity plans, but also helps them create their plan as they learn.  Keywords: Business Continuity Planning, Small Businesses, Canada, Toolkit, YUBCPT  The planning and implementation of earthquake scenario in megacities  AZIZI, Amir; BAGHBANNEZHAD, Abolghassem  Municipality of Mashhad, Iran, Islamic Republic of  Presenting author: AZIZI, Amir  amirazizi_b@Yahoo.com  The rise in the number, magnitude and the rate of damage caused by earthquakes in recent years and decades at the national and universal level is due to various factors. However, the most significant of these factors are population explosion, change in the use of land, development of residential areas and not being prepared for these disasters. In the process of the comprehensive crisis management, preparedness and prevention are vital in reducing earthquake–related damage. The role of awareness, training and rehearsing is vital before a disaster occurs. In Mashhad, a megacity with a population of 3.000.000 and over 20.000.000 passengers and pilgrims per year, for the first time at the national level, a real earthquake scenario was designed and implemented at great length in the presence of over 5000 forces, 500 pieces of machinery and 2 helicopters. The results of the above mentioned assessed by experts in crisis management indicates a 96.5% success in this regard. This article focuses on analyzing the scenario in question and its applicability to other megacities in the world, by presenting the manner in which it was implemented in Mashhad.  Keywords: Disaster Management, Earthquake, Megacities 104  United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: BACH, Claudia  bach@ehs.unu.edu  Keywords: Critical infrastructure, vulnerability assessment, slow and sudden onset hazards, qualitative and quantitative methods  Early warning and the human factor - people-centered warning systems and awareness are key  BARTHELT, Christian H.; LOSTER, Thomas R.  Munich Re Foundation, Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: BARTHELT, Christian H.  cbarthelt@munichre-foundation.org  Recent decades have seen a significant increase in the number of natural catastrophes with devastating consequences. Warning systems have always played a key role in preventing or minimising losses. Since the tsunami of December 2004, which caused over 220,000 deaths in Asia and Africa, effective early warning has become an increasingly important factor in disaster prevention. The USA has excellent early-warning systems, however, in 2005 Hurricane Katrina claimed the lives of more than 1,300 people in one of the richest countries in the world. When Hurricane Irene threatened the US EastCoast in 2011, the authorities reacted immediately. No lives were claimed but losses occurred. Japan has excellent systems, too. Despite this fact, the complex catastrophic event in Fukushima overcharged the existing disaster risk management. The correct estimation of risk-magnitude and preparedness for very complex risk accumulations are important. In 2009 a tsunami claimed over 170 lives in Samoa and American Samoa. The Kingdom of Tonga also was affected, despite a computer-based early warning system being in place. The system was technically working, however, the triggering quake occurred before staff had arrived at the radio and television stations and other public facilities that normally issue alerts. People-centered systems shaped according to the needs and capabilities of people at risk are key for improving integrated risk management. This can be seen along rivers in central Mozambique, where SIDPABB, a simple but effective warning system is in place. The system worked successfully several times (2007, 2008 and 2010) during severe floods.  Keywords: Natural disasters, disaster risk reduction, early warning systems, people-centered approaches Heterogeneous Structural Development in megacities in Iran; a Factor hindering optimal performance of rescue forces in crisis response phase  BATHAEE, Reza (1); Hossein TEIMOORI 1:  INDM Conference (Founder) Iran; 2: Master in Technology Management  Presenting author: BATHAEE, Reza  reza_bathaee@yahoo.com  The 50-year profile of Tehran and other cities in Iran, portraits cities with relatively low-rise, earthquake-prone buildings with neighborhoods in the city center interconnected by quite narrow alleys and streets. At the same time in most small towns, we can observe neighborhoods with low-rise buildings with yards, interconnected by narrow streets. In the past fifty years the relief experience in those cities in Iran hit by earthquake has shown that during large scale earthquakes in small towns (such as Tabas 1979, Rudbar 1990 and Bam 2003) most buildings had been razed, but owing to the small height of buildings, it was possible to remove the rubbles and open up connection routes (streets and alleys) with basic equipment while professional rescue teams and ordinary people were also capable of removing rubbles and search for the victims. With the expansion of Tehran and most Iranian megacities over the last forty years, for a variety of reasons, including rural to urban migration, increasing urban population, the urban planning patterns of Tehran and other major cities have been altered and instead of low-rise buildings with courtyards, high-rise apartment buildings are built, without fundamental improvements in widening alleys and streets. Poor quality construction materials, lack of building codes, inefficient supervision over Building Code 2800, construction of high-rise construction vulnerable to earthquakes in narrow routes, lack of access to specific equipment (large cranes, loaders and trucks) to open up the congested streets and collapsed bridges, are only a few parameters impeding the performance of relief groups participating in rescue operation during disaster response phase. This paper aims to identify markers of various urban links (Core/old Zone, Semi-old Zone and New Zone) and provide appropriate solutions for optimal performance of relief and rescue forces based on the requirements of response phase.  Keywords: Urban planning, earthquake, rescue, rubbles removal  Maximise your returns in crisis management preparedness: a cyclic approach to training and exercises  BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); ABRAHAM, Philip (3); BRAAKHEKKE, Erie (1,4)  1: Netherlands Institute for Safety (NIFV) – Research Department (The Netherlands); 2: Lund University – Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management (LUCRAM) (Sweden); 3: Frontline Training Associates (United Kingdom); 4: Police academy of the Netherlands (The Netherlands)  Presenting author: BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna  ralf.beerens@nifv.nl  In order to provide an effective response to a crisis, preparedness is key. Considerable resources are applied to developing crisis management and response capabilities. In many cases this investment is not being used effectively, with potential gains in efficiency and effectiveness not being realized. This can be averted by instituting a well structured and cyclic training and exercise programme including evaluation and review. This will ensure that the training itself and individuals, teams and methodologies meet the required standards and provide an effective return to the organisation and communities. Training and exercise programmes are not independent activities, they form part of a larger, riskbased, process of disaster management preparedness. In order to have an impact on an individual’s skills, knowledge or behaviours or organizational learning, or the design of procedures and teams, the programmes need a cyclic and holistic approach as well as clearly identified outcomes that focus on identified gaps and emerging threats. This will support meaningful evaluation against clear indicators. Without having clear outcomes, standards or values, it is not possible to evaluate a programme’s effectiveness. These outcomes form measurable performance indicators around which a detailed programme can be designed. Following delivery, the evaluation observations are analysed to identify critical gaps in knowledge, behaviour or policy. This analysis allows clear, structured recommendations to be formulated that will provide guidance as to the content of the continuing training programme cycle, prioritising key needs and ensuring maximum efficiency and utilisation of resources, at all levels. By analysing and comparing various European exercises and their outcomes we can demonstrate the advantages of this approach. We end this paper with recommendations that would potentially increase the learning outcomes in any future training or exercise programme.  Keywords: Cyclic, Training, Exercises, Preparedness, Evaluation  Dynamic potential in disaster exercises: identifcation – development – evaluation  BEERENS, Ralf Josef Johanna (1,2); KALTENBRUNNER, Katharina Anna (3)  1: Netherlands Institute for Safety (NIFV) – Research Department (The Netherlands); 2: Lund University – Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management (LUCRAM) (Sweden); 3: Department of Social and Business Sciences, Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS) (Austria)  Presenting author: KALTENBRUNNER, Katharina Anna  katharina.kaltenbrunner@sbg.ac.at  Due to the increasing dissolution of boundaries, dynamic changes and the severity of natural disasters, international disaster-exercises gain ever increasing importance in cross-country disaster management. Only this way can a fundamental basis for a target-oriented use of tangible or 105 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • intangible resources among the different stakeholders be achieved. Without doubt, a principal endeavor of any exercise (and thus disaster exercises) is the identification of learning processes and linked outcomes. In order to optimize disaster response operations it is particularly necessary to focus on dynamic capabilities. These can be defined as (learning) processes and (behavior) patterns by which existing resources, skills, procedures or routines can be matched or combined in different ways to perform their function and meet new challenges. An example of these capabilities, in the context of disaster exercises, are the differing mechanisms for guaranteeing the preparedness, response and coordination of European civil protection teams and modules. These situations create diverse options for action learning and opportunities for the systematic transfer of experiences. In this respect this paper aims to outline basic contents of identifying and managing dynamic capabilities in disaster exercises using a systemic and multidimensional approach inspired by design science. Firstly this includes the identification of key dynamic capabilities in disaster exercises as well as the description of the processes and conditions (e.g. the combination of implicit and explicit knowledge, improvisation) that are necessary for the formation and development of dynamic capabilities. Currently there are a lack of common, agreed and research validated, parameters that can be used for the evaluation of disaster response performance. This paper aims to introduce and discuss possible parameters and criteria that can be used for this evaluation. The paper concludes with considerations regarding further research activities in order to deepen our understanding of these first findings.  Keywords: dynamic capabilities, learning processes, disaster exercises, dynamic changes  FORIN or Farout ? Exploring multiple drivers of disaster risks in Africa  BENOUAR, Djillali (1); ROVINS, Jane (2)  1: USTHB, Built Environment Research Laboratory (LBE), Alger, Algeria,; 2: Executive Director, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) IPO, Beijing, China  Presenting author: BENOUAR, Djillali  dbenouar@gmail.com  Disasters are increasingly being understood as ‘processes’ and not discreet ‘events’. Moreover, the causes of disasters are driven by complex engineering, socio-economic, sociocultural, and various geophysical factors. Such interacting driving factors, occurring across a range of temporal and spatial scales, combine in numerous ways to configure disaster risks. Using some selected disasters in Africa, the dynamics of such risks and their configurations will be explored using a new approach and methodology, namely Forensic Disaster Investigations (also called FORIN studies). Forensic task is perhaps similar to solving a picture of a disaster puzzle. Initially, there are dozens or even hundreds of apparently disorganized pieces piled when examined individually, each piece may not provide much information. Methodically, the various pieces are sorted and patiently fitted together in a logical context taking into account all the parameters. Slowly, an overall picture of the disaster emerges. When a significant portion of the disaster puzzle has been solved, it then becomes easier to see where the remaining pieces fit. FORIN relies upon the actual evidence found and applies accepted scientific methodologies and principles to interpret 106 IDRC DAVOS 2012 the disaster in all its facets. Often, the analysis requires the simultaneous application of several scientific disciplines. The Integrated Research on Disaster Risk programme is proposing new methodologies to examine the root issues surrounding the increase in disaster cost both human and economic. This paper attempts, as a case study, to investigate the Algiers (Algeria) floods and debris flows of 10 November 2001 which caused the loss of more than 714 human lives, injured more than 312, made missing 116 and about 10 000 were homeless, damaging more than 1500 housing units and scores of schools, bridges and public works.  Keywords: Risk Reduction, methodology, case study, Forensic, Algeria  Identifying and preparing for threats to critical infrastructure during protests or civil unrest  BERNIER, Suzanne Naomi  SB Crisis Consulting, Canada  Presenting author: BERNIER, Suzanne Naomi  suzanne@sbcrisisconsulting.com  Recently, the emerging threat of protests, riots and civil unrest during mass gatherings has become a disturbing reality across the globe. Given the current global economic crisis, we will undoubtedly see an increase in these civil disturbances. As critical infrastructure sectors are often key targets during such events, it is essential that plans be developed in advance to mitigate and respond to these new and emerging threats. This session will highlight the various types of threats to critical infrastructure that could occur during mass gatherings, and the types of plans that should be in place to mitigate and respond to civil disturbances. The session will also review Lessons Learned from recent protests/civil disturbances that have occurred throughout the globe.  Keywords: riots, civil unrest, mass gatherings, civil disturbances, critical infrastruture protection  International municipal cooperation as a modality for transferring local best practices in disaster risk management: practice, promise and pitfalls  BERSE, Kristoffer (1); ASAMI, Yasushi (2)  1: Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan; 2: Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan  Presenting author: BERSE, Kristoffer  kberse@ua.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp  The paper introduces the concept of city-to-city cooperation (C2C); one of the modalities for international municipal linking that involves the sharing and, where appropriate, transfers of best practices from one locality to another. It has been estimated that 70 percent of cities worldwide engage in C2C in one way or another; yet there is still little academic understanding as to how it is actually practiced especially in the context of certain sectors such as disaster risk reduction. This paper provides a brief background on the development of C2C as a decentralized development cooperation strategy, and then zeroes in on the experience of some cities and organizations from Asia in enhancing various aspects of disaster risk management through C2C. It concludes with a discussion of the potential and limitations of C2C in enhancing the resilience of cities to disasters.  Keywords: city-to-city cooperation, best practice transfer, disaster risk management  The Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network: strengthening the public health prevention and outbreak control strategy  BERTHERAT, Eric (1); JANCLOES, Michel (2); FIRTH, Emily (1); DURSKI, Kara (1)  1: WHO, Switzerland; 2: Health and Climate Foundation  Presenting author: JANCLOES, Michel  michel.jancloes@gmail.com  Leptospirosis has emerged to become a major public health problem. Within the last decade, there has been a worldwide increase in the number of reported cases, specifically through post disaster outbreaks. The true burden of leptospirosis outbreaks is likely to be grossly under-estimated due to the non-specific clinical presentations of the disease and the complexity of laboratory confirmation. These factors limit the understanding of the natural history of the disease, and many questions related to the control strategy remain unanswered, particularly in an epidemic situation. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the disease to certain environmental conditions suggests that climate change may impact the nature of the disease and the magnitude and severity of outbreaks. In 2006, the Leptospirosis Burden Epidemiology Reference Group, a World Health Organization partnership was established to determine the disease burden of leptospirosis. The second step was to revise and improve the control strategy of the disease. This involves a comprehensive overview of the disease to understand the relationships between humans, animals, and the environment; the role of domestic animals and agricultural practices; the association between disease burden and human behaviour, and the impact of climate. In response to the many unanswered questions surrounding leptospirosis, WHO and the Health Climate Foundation developed a new approach whereby the knowledge and expertise of the public health challenges and risk factors are integrated through a multi-disciplinary, technical framework. Launched in 2010, the Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network gathers representatives from international organizations and foundations as well as researchers. It offers an opportunity to strengthen current public health strategies and mitigate the risk and impact of leptospirosis outbreaks in populations at high risk. It also creates a forum to develop new advocacy and funding opportunities for leptospirosis, and offers further support for capacity building, training and technology transfer, as needed.  Keywords: leptospirosis, natural disaster  Empowering communities to cope with disaster risks through community-based disaster management  BHADRA, Manash Ronjan; KANAK, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak; ISLAM, Rabiul  Shusamaj Foundation, Bangladesh, People's Republic of  Presenting author: BHADRA, Manash Ronjan  shusamajbd@yahoo.com  Disaster risk is on the rise throughout the world. Over the past two to three decades, the economic losses and the number of people who have been affected by natural disasters have increased more rapidly than both economic and population growth. Natural disasters severely hamper the progress and achievements of sustainable development while, at the same time, physical infrastructure we are constructing may itself constitute a source of risk in the event of future disasters. This is particularly true in the case of natural disaster like cyclones, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis where the majority of victims are killed by their own collapsing houses. From the perspectives of environmental degradation, human intervention, and security aspects, disaster management is a pressing issue for all of us and should be undertaken on a comprehensive basis. The approach seeks communities at risk get engaged in all of its phases: prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Empowered the community is the most effective approach to achieving sustainability in dealing with natural disaster risks. Shusamaj Foundation is carrying out various community-based programmes to establish disaster prevention as an essential component of sustainable development. Its activities include improvement of the safety levels of core community facilities such as schools; the dissemination of best practices in disaster risk management at the community level; and the formulation of integrated programmes for sustainable development through disaster risk management initiatives. The paper presents analysis and some findings of those programmes which engage communities to deal with disaster risks. Keywords: Disaster, empower, community, risk, management  Tale of two cities: developing city reliance strategies under climate change scenarios for Indore and Surat, India  BHAT, Gopalakrishna; RAJASEKAR, Umamaheshwaran; KARANTH, Anup  TARU Leading Edge, India, Republic of  Presenting author: KARANTH, Anup  akaranth@taru.org   This article discusses the methodology adapted in designing city resilience concepts under changing climate scenarios for two cities in India, namely, Indore and Surat. The study was carried out during the second phase of Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN). One of the aims for the development of this climate resilience strategy was to reduce the impacts of climate change. The strategy provides an overarching framework with clear vision and direction for improved delivery of services by the city governments and action to be undertaken by communities to avoid disasters and to promote economic development of the city as well as the metropolitan region under varying climatic conditions. In this study, risk assessment was conducted to get a better understanding of impacts on city. City wide vulnerability assessment was carried out using GIS based vulnerability assessment techniques to gain knowledge about current vulnerability of different sections of population across space and socio-economic background. The issue of climate change is cross-cutting, therefore, sector studies were undertaken to determine the degree to which existing systems can response to varying climatic conditions. The assessment results were integrated to draw an informed resilience approach for the cities in dealing with climate variability and change. Resilience strategy development was based on existing climate science, risk information, urban planning/development framework, current vulnerability and anticipated future risks, resource constraints, economic development and identification of critical uncertainties. These were carried out 107 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • through extensive studies, information exchange between city stakeholders and consolidation from series of risk to resilience (R2R) workshops. This study is one of the pioneering efforts towards developing urban resilience strategies under changing climate scenarios for Indian cities. The methodology adapted for the two cities are currently being owned and replicated within other cities in India by a series of government and private institutions.  Keywords: climate resilience strategy, climate change, scenario development, urban, adaptation  Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: new challenges and new insights from the IPCC SREX report and own Studies  BIRKMANN, Joern  UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security  Presenting author: BIRKMANN, Joern  Birkmann@ehs.unu.edu  Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) are interconnected thematic areas which both deal with common themes and address similar issues such as the impact of extreme weather events on vulnerable people as well as aim to reduce this vulnerability. However, both communities often still operate in parallel without sufficient exchange and collaboration. An important milestone in the recent past was the development of the IPCC SREX report that brought together researchers from climate change, climate impact assessment as well as vulnerability reduction and disaster risk management. The report underscores that DRR is today an important task that will need to receive even more attention in the light of climate change Adaptation to recent and expected Climate Changes implies three tasks in particular: first adaptation to gradual changes, such as changes in average temperature and sea-level rise, secondly reducing and managing the risk linked to extremes weather related events, such as cyclones, floods etc. Thirdly, address the shifts of climate zones which might subject some regions to risks which previously had not been experienced. Challenges in terms of linking DRR and CCA encompass particularly institutional issues, problems related to risk identification and mismatches of different response strategies and measures to extreme events and creeping changes as well as in the development of validation criteria to monitor the linking of DRR and CCA. The paper outlines particular challenges in terms of linking DRR and CCA with regard to different temporal, spatial and functional scales. Specific challenges for present approaches in DRR will be illustrated, such as new challenges for early warning and risk and vulnerability assessment. The paper concludes that a more adaptive disaster risk management is needed in order to address the challenges of climate change and climate variability more efficiently.  A time series analysis of climate variability and its impact on food production in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia  BOKA, Gutu Tesso; EMANA, Dr. Bezabih; KETEMA, Dr. Mengistu 108 IDRC DAVOS 2012  World Vision International, Ethiopia  Presenting author: BOKA, Gutu Tesso  gutu_tesso@wvi.org  North Shewa is among the areas hardest hit by climate change, mainly through the frequent occurrence of climate change induced hazards like flooding, insect outbreaks, hailstorm, alien weeds, disease and pests, droughts and all others which are a result of climate change. Time series data collected from Central Statistical Authority of Ethiopia and the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia were employed for the study. This paper examines the variability in the trends of precipitation and temperature over the period of three decades. It tries to measure the number of people and area of land which is vulnerable to climate change induced shocks over time scale. It then estimates the impacts of climate change on food production using an econometric model; where climate variables together with other factors were set to be determinant of food production over time. The co-integrated Vector Auto Regressive and Error Correction Models are employed to empirically analyze the impact of climate change factors on food production. The long run estimation result shows that while food production is significantly affected by improved technology, area under irrigation, manure usage, Meher rain and temperature, fertilizer application and Belg rain were found to be less significant in the model. The Johannes’ approach revealed that 90 percent of the variation in productivity is explained by area under irrigation, area covered by manure per hectare, the change in usage of improved variety per hectare, and the three climate parameters (Meher Rain, Belg rain and Average temperature). It is, therefore, recommended that if agricultural food production need to be increased and sustained, it is necessary to encourage use of irrigation, introduction of improved drought tolerant varieties, and conservation of the natural environment. Keywords: Climate Variability, Climate Change Impact, Natural disaster  Enhancing regional resilience to cope with critical infrastructure disruptions: the public-private partnership experience in Lombardy Region, Italy  BOUCHON, Sara (1); DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); TRUCCO, Paolo (2); ZACCONE, Andrea (3)  1: Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of; 2: Politecnico di Milano, Italy; 3: Lombardy Region, Italy  Presenting author: BOUCHON, Sara  sbouchon.rgs@tiscali.it  Critical infrastructures (CIs) provide a number of fundamental services (transportation, energy, communication, etc.) on which society depends. The disruption or destruction of some of these infrastructures, triggered by natural, technological or intentional events, can be debilitating to the needs of society and individual citizens. To prevent potential crisis situation, due to the disruption of essential services, there is a need, not only to set up effective critical infrastructure protection (CIP) strategies, but also to enhance the resilience of society, i.e. its capability of detecting, facing, and recovering from any type of CIs disruption. While most CIP policies are developed at national level, the regional level appears particularly adapted to the implementation of strategies focusing on developing a holistic disaster resilience approach, based on governance principles. First results of the PReSIC programme carried on in the Lombardy Region, Italy, illustrate a possible way to operationalize resilience at regional level, in order to address issues related to CIs disruptions. The objective of the programme is to enhance regional resilience by improving prevention, early detection and emergency management practices, leveraging on a PPP with CIs operators. The development of a collaborative environment between the regional civil protection authorities and the operators of transport and energy infrastructures resulted in enhanced information sharing among actors, as the precondition for improving the crisis management strategies of the Region. The Lombardy example shows the added value of a collaborative approach in fostering practical, stakeholderdriven and cross-sector processes that allows building trust among public and private partners and addressing in an efficient way the complexity of the potential consequences and cascading effects triggered by CIs disruption. The presentation will report the main results of the PReSIC programme and will focus on how the gained experience can contribute to the discussion on regional resilience related to critical infrastructures. Keywords: Critical Infrastructures, resilience, Public-PrivatePartnership, Lombardy region  User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process  BOUCHON, Sara; DIMAURO, Carmelo  Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: BOUCHON, Sara  sbouchon.rgs@tiscali.it  In order to define risk reduction strategies, the public administrations in charge of risk management policies have to manage large territories characterized by multiple types of risks, i.e. natural and technological risks. Natural and technological risks are characterized by different phenomenology, frequency of occurrence, magnitude of impact. They also present different level of acceptability and perception among stakeholders. Therefore, multi-risk assessment is an innovative approach for identifying the most critical areas of a territory, with the view to support public authorities in defining and prioritizing mitigation and emergency management strategies. A multi-risk approach poses many challenges, since it requires combining a large amount of information about the hazards, the exposed targets and the related vulnerability values. The systematic and coherent interpretation of such information by the decisionmakers is not simple, in particular when this information supports a decision-making process involving many stakeholders. Hence, it is particularly interesting and effective to have a tool that facilitates the integration of the information and the communication to and among stakeholders. Decisionmaking in this field is an iterative cognitive process and, for this reason, decision support applications must be built in a manner that permits changes to occur easily and quickly, without losing in accuracy of reference information. This improves the efficiency of the negotiation process allowing stakeholders to screen and to focus on the relevant dimension of the problem of concern. The conference contribution will report the results of several programmes aiming at defining multi-risk mitigation plans in Italy and will illustrate the main functionality of the related GIS-based decision support system for defining mitigation strategies. In particular, the focus will be laid on how such an approach meets the requirements of the risk management decision process.  A comparison of regular and disrupted operations for route planning in freight transportation  BROCK, Maximilian (1); MATTEIS, Tilman (2); HAYDEN, Cristina (1); ZHANG, Li (2); GROSS, Wendelin (1)  1: 4flow AG, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: Institute for Economic Policy Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: BROCK, Maximilian  m.brock@4flow.de  A case study is carried out in order to display and assess the impact of infrastructural disruptions on a real-life based retail distribution network in Germany. The primary objective is to prove the viability of coupling a model for traffic simulation and one for route planning decision support in order to assess infrastructural disruptions under a risk management viewpoint. A further objective is to work out if a route planning risk management strategy that makes use of unpaired traffic flows is effective to encounter the impacts of infrastructural disruptions on road traffic. In practice route planning has to consider periodic disruptions such as heavy traffic that occur regularly and extreme events that occur seldom but have consequences that are much worse. Regular variability in traffic flow is addressed by drawing route planning decisions in the case of a retail distribution network given a road network with simulated traffic load. For routing vehicles through such a network, we take advantage of unpaired traffic flows in the proximity of agglomerations. Infrastructural disruptions entail a major change in the traffic load. The requirements that route planning has to meet in this situation are detected and corresponding tours are built if possible. Behavior patterns that deviate from mainstream, i.e. adaption of routes, are expected to be helpful in case of emergency as not all road users presumably adapt the delivery tours in response to the extreme event. The performance of a route plan is measured against different criteria in a faultless and in a disturbed network such as punctuality, tardiness and, the fluctuation and thus reliability of arrival times from a transport science point of view. From a managerial point of view service level, overall costs, driving and waiting time are used to analyze different scenarios regarding their impact on the retail company’s performance.  Keywords: freight transportation, disruption, traffic simulation, route planning, risk management  Societal Security – the new standard ISO 22301 for Business Continuity Management  BRUSAMOLINO, Luigi  CISM, CRISC – Managing Director Southern Europe BSI  Presenting author: BRUSAMOLINO, Luigi  Luigi.Brusamolino@bsigroup.com  BSI ISO 22301 is the new international standard for business continuity management recently published in May 2012.The standard provides the requirements for a business continuity management system (BCMS) and is based on global BCM best practices. 109 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • BSI (British Standard Institution), the world-leader in standards and certification services, is one of the pioneers of the original BCM best practice standard BS 25999 that has now been superseded by ISO 22301.The new standard ISO 22301 now comes under a wider societal security remit, acknowledging the important role that BCM has to play in protecting society and ensuring our ability to respond to incidents, emergencies and disasters. The new international standard very much considers the organizations as part of the wider community, taking into account in the risk scenario and in the definition of emergency plans all stakeholders (supply chain, partners, local authorities,…).The standard provides a foundation and a common vocabulary and framework for BCM best practices and processes and is expected to be widely adopted.  The Greater Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011: a case study in the communication of science for disaster risk reduction  BRYNER, Vivienne (1,2); NORRIS, Richard (2); FLEMING, Jean (1)  1: The Centre for Science Communication, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; 2: Geology Department, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand  Presenting author: BRYNER, Vivienne  vivienne.bryner@gmail.com  According to ideals enshrined in the UNISDR Hyogo Framework for Action, communication of disaster risk reduction (DRR) should be participatory and democratised as well as scientifically robust. Under this paradigm bestpractice communication of science for DRR requires, amongst other things, contextualised information from a variety of perspectives that acknowledges uncertainties. This research explored how well DRR sciences are communicated against the aforementioned communicative ideals, whilst also measuring communicated content against current scholarly understandings from DRR-related research. Over 6000 earthquake-related articles presented in online print media in New Zealand (NZ) over the last three years, and >80 hours of earthquake-related NZ television news were analysed. Analysis revealed that what is being communicated has significant gaps in communication compared with scientific understandings of the causes of earthquake-related disaster, and possibilities in seismic risk reduction. Mass media reports of disaster are hazard- and consequencefocussed with only limited mention of how individual and community vulnerabilities might be reduced. ‘Expert’ scientists presented in NZ’s mass media are drawn from a limited range of disciplines so that audiences may have difficulty gaining broader perspectives in DRR. Where risk is discussed the approach is probabilistic rather than on avoiding or mitigating exposure. Presentation of the detail of risk assessment and risk management (reduction) is rare. Lastly, attributions of responsibility for reducing exposure to seismic risk either focus on individual survival actions and a few household seismic adjustments, or implicitly suggest legislative and regulatory decision-making relating to risk reduction options be left to government and experts. Information from a wider range of sciences, that supports 110 IDRC DAVOS 2012 innovation and adaptation as well as more possibilities in preparation, avoidance and mitigation, is needed. A less probabilistic approach by journalists and scientist sources seems warranted, as does a greater emphasis on concepts of self- and community-efficacy in DRR.  Keywords: Disaster risk reduction, science communication, community-efficacy, seismic risk, earthquake  Are private flood mitigation measures successfully contributing to contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany?  BUBECK, Philip (1,2); BOTZEN, Wouter (2); KREIBICH, Heidi (1); AERTS, Jeroen (2)  1: German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany; 2: Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands   Presenting author: BUBECK, Philip  philipb@gfz-potsdam.de  Flood risk is projected to increases in many places due to the effects of climate change and the on-going intensification of human activities in risk-prone areas. These projections and the considerable uncertainties associated with these developments increasingly require integrated approaches in flood risk management in Europe. In addition to traditional flood protection, the latter also aim at reducing the potential consequences of floods, amongst others, by means of flood mitigation measures implemented by private households. In Germany, the responsibility of private households to contribute to damage reduction was increasingly integrated in flood risk management in response to major floods in 1993 and 1995 along the Rhine and in response to the disastrous 2002 Elbe flood. However, even though nonstructural measures have become an integral component of contemporary flood risk management, knowledge on them is still limited. This concerns in particular socio-economic and perceptual factors that possibly influence flood mitigation behaviour, the temporal and spatial spread of damage mitigation measures among flood-prone households as well as their effectiveness and cost-efficiency. Insights into these aspects are crucial for determining the efficiency of contemporary flood risk management. In our presentation, we will provide an in-depth overview on these aspects, drawing information from empirical data of computer-aided telephone surveys among 752 flood-prone households along the Rhine. For instance, we find that in addition to flood experience, the social environment and flood-coping appraisals are important factors that influence precautionary behaviour. The obtained insights will be used to provide recommendations to successfully manage the transition to integrated flood risk management concepts.  Keywords: flood risk, damage mitigation, precautionary behaviour  Does risk communication raise property owners’ preparedness to implement safety measures against flood damage?  BUCHECKER, Matthias; MAIDL, Elisabeth  Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland  Presenting author: MAIDL, Elisabeth  elisabeth.maidl@wsl.ch  In the previous decade, in most European countries risk maps on natural hazards have been elaborated but there is so far little experience on how to efficiently communicate these maps to the public. Recently, the public authorities of Zurich informed the owners of buildings located within the hazard zone about flood risks. They received official letters containing information on potential danger and safety measures. In the cover letter they were also encouraged to acquire information about the particular risks for their property using an online accessible risk map. This campaign was based on the expectation that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. There is, however, little empirical evidence that these expected outcomes can be achieved by written forms of risk communication. With this project we aim to find out to which degree such a campaign can shape property owners risk perception and risk behaviour. In collaboration with public authorities we conducted a survey among 1500 owners in the hazard zones in Zurich. The standardized questionnaire comprises in particular items measuring respondents’ evaluation of the information material, the time they spent on studying it, dimensions of their risk perception, trust in authorities, level of responsibility, preparedness to implement safety measures, and other items. The results revealed that most respondents spent only little time on the flood risk information. It, however confirmed the motivating effect of the campaign on those who studied the material. Multivariate data analysis also provided insights on other factors that influence citizens’ preparedness to implement safety measures. Further the role of experience, trust in authorities and sense of responsibility are elaborated. The results will be discussed and implications for practice and future research will be drawn.  Keywords: risk communication, natural hazards, risk perception, risk behaviour  Comparative risk assessment of energy technologies in the context of energy security and sustainability  BURGHERR, Peter; ECKLE, Petrissa; HIRSCHBERG, Stefan  Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerland  Presenting author: BURGHERR, Peter  peter.burgherr@psi.ch  The energy sector is both a critical infrastructure and an important prerequisite for many economic activities in modern society. The comparative assessment of accident risks is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of energy security and sustainability concerns. The applied framework for comparative risk assessment is based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains, building upon historical experience available in the Energyrelated Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), complemented by simplified probabilistic safety assessment and expert judgment. The analytical scope includes major centralized technologies such as fossil (coal, oil, natural gas), hydro and nuclear energy chains as well as decentralized new renewables (e.g. photovoltaics, wind, geothermal). Results are provided for aggregated indicators such as fatality rates and maximum credible consequences (serving as a proxy for risk aversion), and frequency-consequence (F-N) curves. Additionally, a variety of risk aspects are presented that are not amenable to full quantification yet because only limited data and experience are available or they cannot be fully covered by traditional risk indicators focusing mainly on consequences. Nevertheless, they can play a crucial rule in decision-making processes and policy formulation. Lastly, the impact of various future energy scenarios on the overall accident risk performance is analyzed, and how specific stakeholder preferences may affect the portfolio of potentially available low-carbon technologies.  Keywords: Comparative Risk Assessment, Energy Security, Severe Accident, ENSAD database, Energy Scenarios  Dealing with disaster in transitional democracies  BYNANDER, Fredrik (1,2)  1: Centre for natural Disaster Research, Sweden, Kingdom of; 2: National Centre for Crisis management Research and Training (CRISMART)  Presenting author: BYNANDER, Fredrik  fredrik.bynander@fhs.se  Society’s susceptibility to the explosive forces of nature is a function of its robustness, flexibility and absorption of the trauma inflicted by major natural hazards. In order to improve society’s capacity to prevent and manage natural disasters, The Swedish Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) aims to help increasing the understanding of the societal, scientific and technical processes involved in natural disasters. This part of the program probes the link between democracy, governmental efficiency and natural hazards. It focuses specifically on transitional democracies and their ability to uphold some level of governance in the face of natural events that triggers a need for mitigation, response and recovery. Lessons are drawn from a large bank of case studies on transitional states responding to disaster. To better understand the complex interrelationship between society and natural hazards, scientific endeavours need to be truly integrative throughout the range between the complex behaviour of nature, the functional foundations of society and the technology that interconnects the two. CNDS is part of a government strategic research initiative that has recently set out to accomplish exactly this. The analysis discussed here is part of a core aim of the program to scrutinise the performance of policies targeting vulnerability to natural hazards, forms of negotiations and the design of international treaties, which can enhance natural disaster management.  Keywords: Transitional democracies, Governance, Authoritarian tendencies, Institutional efficiency, Leadership  Bridging sustainably the last mile connectivity in India and Myanmar  CAPISTRANO, Melgabal (1); SINGH, Nagendra (2)  1: Malteser International, Germany; 2: Sahbhagi Shikshan Kendra (SSK), India  Presenting author: CAPISTRANO, Melgabal  melgabal.capistrano@malteser-international.org  In the End to End Early Warning System (EWS), the “last mile” connectivity remains underdeveloped partly due to a lack of understanding of community capacities and needs and partly as a result of it being promoted as an “add on” to national systems. Malteser International’s initiatives in India and Myanmar demonstrate the critical contribution that communities make within early-warning and response 111 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • systems, and as drivers of them. Lessons learned show that the last mile can be bridged sustainably where communities and their vulnerabilities are taken as the starting point for local system development and strong links to national systems are established. Benefiting from the mobile EWS for floods in Uttar Pradesh (India) are 50 flood prone hamlets through a successful system based on auto-dialing software with engagement of the authorities responsible for district level early warning. It authenticates existing indigenous practices through a government managed system. The project has attempted to make the authority’s system more efficient and accountable and is based on the assumption that they will exercise their duty as envisaged in the national Disaster Management policy and will continue managing the EWS. To prepare villages prone to cyclones in Myanmar, Malteser International developed an innovative flag system using understandable warning messages derived from complicated hydro-meteorological data. By engaging women in EWS activities which were dominated traditionally by men, their decision making capacity was increased. Village government officials were included as members of the disaster management committees, which were organized to disseminate reliable warning information as they are credible members of the community. The EWS projects implemented form part of a wider DRR program, in which increasing community knowledge and inclusive social mobilization had been crucial. These initiatives have not been established as standalone activity and this is a critical factor in their success.  DRHOUSE project: the ASA module for the post earthquake structural assessment  CASAROTTI, Chiara; PAVESE, Alberto  EUCENTRE Foundation, Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: CASAROTTI, Chiara  chiara.casarotti@eucentre.it  The project DRHOUSE (Development of Rapid Highlyspecialized Operative Units for Structural Evaluation) is inserted within the perspective of integrating the shortage of disaster-response capacity at the European level in the field of post-earthquake structural evaluation. The main objective is the development and implementation of a new Civil Protection Module able to ensure a rapid and effective response in the field of the post-earthquake damage and safety assessment targeted to enhance the European Rapid Response Capability within the European Community Mechanism for civil protection. The European rapid response capability is based on the development of civil protection modules of the Member States, which are self-sufficient task and needs driven services. Each MODULE is an autonomous operational team representing a combination of human and material means, described by specific tasks, capacities, components, selfsufficiency and deployment, possibly interoperable with other modules, according to the Decision 2008/73/EC, Euratom (december 2007), which defines general requirements for European Civil Protection modules. Following recently identified quantitative gaps related to the earthquake emergency in the current state of the Mechanism, the project DRHOUSE aims at integrating the shortage of 112 IDRC DAVOS 2012 disaster-response capacity at the EU level in the field of postearthquake structural evaluation. The project propose the development and implementation of a new "capacity" for the Mechanism, as a new "module for the post-disaster structural evaluation". The capability has been conceived as a MACRO-MODULE composed by three modules, which can either inter-operate or work independently, according to the possible intervention scenarios: 1. Basic Seismic Assessment module (BSA): for ordinary usability assessment 2. Advanced Seismic Assessment module (ASA): for strategic / complex structures 3. Short-term countermeasures module (STC): to prop up damaged structures and infrastructures. The TREES Lab Section of the EUCENTRE Foundation is responsible for the Advanced Seismic Assessment module (ASA), for strategic / complex structures, with dedicated instrumentation  Keywords: BUILDSAFE, protection modules post-earthquake assessment, Civil  Lessons Learned from Multi Casualty incidents response by Magen David Adom Israel  CASPI, Guy  Magen David Adom Israel  Presenting author: CASPI, Guy  Guyc@mda.org.il  Magen David Adom, Israel's National EMS, is in charge of the medical response to multi casualty incidents. Those incidents include transportation accidents (busses and trains), structural fires, and one large wild fire, terrorist attacks (mainly suicide bombers). MCI doctrine has been revised and operational debriefings are routine. 1. Declaring the MCI – In order to minimize time, the authority to declare a MCI should be delegated to the "grass root" and they must have the support in case of a "non -justified" activation. 2. Check lists – the first minutes of a MCI are very chaotic. In order to support the field personnel "checklists" have been created. 3. "Bomb squad" procedures. The "normal" procedure of waiting for "clearance" from bomb squad technicians to enter the explosion site has proven non feasible. 4. Managing within the chaos. MDA philosophy is that there is little sense in trying to organize the chaos, and the better solution is to learn to work within the chaos. 5. Surge capacity – there is a need to bring additional personnel and equipment fast to the scene, on top of those available in the ambulances responding to the incident. 6. Incident commanders need to be well identified. Each commander needs an assistant dealing with communications. 7. Coordination and cooperation between the different organizations is essential. In many cases organizations work side by side and not jointly, previous personal acquaintance of commanders is extremely important.......  Training programs for risk reduction of typhoon disaster chains in southeast coastal region of China  CHANG, Sheng (1,2); WANG, Jing'ai (1,2); LEI, Yongdeng (1,2); MA, Liang (1); LI, Qunfang (1)  1: School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2: Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China  Presenting author: CHANG, Sheng  csbeyondeleven@163.com  In the context of global climate change and rapid socioeconomic development of China, the southeast coastal region is becoming the most developed area in China, carrying 16.97% of the total population and 24.64% of China’s GDP with less than 5% of the total land territory. However, in the past decade, the southeast coastal region (including Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, and Zhejiang provinces) suffered 20 times disaster chains per year including rainstorm, floods, and landslide/debris flow caused by the typhoon disasters, with 168.3 of annual average casualties and about $100Million of direct economic losses per year, which seriously threaten regional security. Based on characteristics of the typhoonflood-landslide/debris flows chains and theory of regional disaster system, two series of training programs for disaster reduction are developed, one is public-oriented program for regional background training according to the features of regional hazard-formative environment, hazards, hazardaffected bodies, and disaster cases. The other is a series of stakeholder-oriented training programs. The content of the program includes: teacher training program based on disaster risk reduction experience popularization and emergency drilling, and cultivation of campus safety culture; training of community disasters correspondents for their daily disaster information management; governmental staffs training contains understanding and exercise of emergency plans, and multi-sectors coordination; volunteer training focuses on emergency rescue knowledge and normalized volunteer services. This training program can be more practical and efficiency by integrating the above two training series. This research could help to improve the national system of disaster reduction training and risk governance. Public risk awareness and response capacity for disaster chains may also be strengthened through this training program to facilitate regional disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.  Keywords: China, Typhoon disaster chains, Training programs for disaster risk reduction, Public-oriented, Stakeholder-oriented  Disaster cultural resilience of religious communities – case study from Sri Lanka post 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami  CHEN, Ted Yu Shen  University of Melbourne, Australia  Presenting author: CHEN, Ted Yu Shen  t.chen2@student.unimelb.edu.au  This paper examines cultural resilience through the lens of religions, namely Muslim, Buddhist and Christian communities in Sri Lanka. Findings from my PhD study where I conducted in-depth interviews with thirty-eight households from three resettlement villages and eight religious NGO officers that participated in the resettlement programs reveal that some religious communities are more resilient than others. Differences in resilience and vulnerability are found to be associated with their attitudes towards community and religious leaderships, perspectives toward the causes of disasters and pathways towards mitigation, family organisations and relationship to places of worship, gender roles, attitudes towards charity, ownership and transference of property and spiritual empowerment. The case study resettlement villages were selected based on their clearly identifiable religious communities. Moratuwa is an area that has historically been settled by Catholics with early influences from the Spanish missionaries; Kalutara is an area that is predominantly Buddhists with a historical Buddhist stupa and temple in the township and Hambantota, although a majority Buddhist district has a concentration of Muslims living in the coastal town that was severely affected in the tsunami. These case studies are also chosen because they were built by two international religious NGOs - Christian Habitat for Humanity and Buddhist Compassion Relief Tzu Chi Foundation, both of which considered religion as part of their approach to recovery and reconstruction. The significance of this research is to contribute to a better understanding of cultural resilience especially religious cultures that can be found across the developing world where entrenched vulnerabilities create many disasters. Insights on how cultural codes, frameworks and attitudes affect disaster preparedness, mitigation and recovery can assist planners and emergency managers working to build resilience in different cultural contexts.  Keywords: Disaster recovery, cultural resilience, religious communities, Sri Lanka  The climate change impact and adaptation strategy on disaster in Taiwan  CHEN, Yung-ming (1); CHEN, Liang-chun (1,2)  1: Natinonal Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, Republic of China; 2: National Taiwan University, Graduate Institute of Building and Planning  Presenting author: CHEN, Yung-ming  ymchen@ncdr.nat.gov.tw  Because Taiwan is located above the seismic belt at the western edge of the Pacific Ocean and is on the main path of typhoons invading the western North Pacific Ocean, it is frequently affected by nature hazards. With 73% of Taiwan’s population exposed to three or more hazards a year and nearly 99% exposed to at least two a year, Taiwan is situated in a high risk region of the world as mentioned in “natural disaster hotspots – a global risk analysis” (World Bank, 2005). The statistics for the frequency of typhoons and the variability of extreme rainfall over the past 40 years suggest that extreme rainfall typhoons tended to occur approximately once every three or four years during the pre-2000 period and increased in frequency to once a year post-2000. These numbers show that Taiwan has suffered from serious flooding and typhoon disasters more frequently in recent years. Under the threat of climate change impact, Taiwan established the Climate Change Adaptation Policy Framework (Taiwan CCAPF) based on UNDP/GEF APF. The disaster risk reduction is one of the most important issues in the APF. Some suggestions on disaster prevention and adaptation strategies against climate change are presented here as follows: (1) promote the climate change risk assessment and set the high risk conservation 113 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • area; (2) improve integration system of disaster monitoring and warning; (3) evaluate the vulnerability and protection capacity of critical infrastructure and new development plan; (4) promote comprehensive river basin management; (5) consider the extreme event and large-scale disasters in disaster prevention and protection policy . The finally we will show the disaster risk maps under climate change in Taiwan.  Keywords: Climate Change, Disasster Risk Reduction, Adaptation Strategy, Extreme Events  Development of natural disaster damage investigation system using smartphone in Korea  CHO, Jae Woong; CHOI, Woo Jung  National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of  Presenting author: CHO, Jae Woong  jwcho80@korea.kr  Recently, NDMS (National Disaster Management System) electronic-disaster register system is operated by National Emergency Management Agency(in Korea) to solve problems that are caused by the paper-based disaster registering system. However, the problems of field investigating (manpower and time shortage, etc.) are still existed. Therefore, a disaster damage investigation technology is developed using smartphone to solve the problems of field and duplications of work. In this study, a disaster damage investigation process using smartphone is developed through the analysis of current process. In this work, a smartphone application was developed based on the synchronization NDMS DB system. In addition, this system was field-tested in damaged areas. Disaster damage investigation App is able to easily enter the list items of NDMS. Also this App can capture images and location information by built in camera and GPS through wireless internet in real-time. The disaster investigation App from this study can provide more simple and systematic damage investigation environment using smartphone compared with the existing investigation method. Also this system can setup rapid investigation environment of 30% increased speed to the existing method by eliminating repetitive paper works. Another advantage of this system can provide the exact location information of damaged area.  Keywords: Disaster Investgation, Smartphone, App  Causes of success and failure in post disaster reconstruction projects – a case study of post 2005 earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction in Northern Pakistan  CHOUDHARY, Muhammad Abbas (1); MEHMOOD, Kashif (2)  1: University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of; 2: College of E&ME, National University of Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan  Presenting author: CHOUDHARY, Muhammad Abbas  mabbas@uettaxila.edu.pk  An earthquake of 7.6 Richter scale hit northern Pakistan on 114 IDRC DAVOS 2012 October 8, 2005 and damaged and area of 30,000 square kilometers, 75,000 people were killed, over 85,000 injured, infrastructure was partially to completely damaged and over 3.5 million were left homeless. The scale of disaster warranted the creation of Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), and massive reconstruction efforts by government and international humanitarian groups were launched. After 6 years and billions of rupees in spending has rebuilt only 57% of the roads, schools, hospitals, 90% projects are behind schedule and 70 have cost variations. This research based on the interviews of the key stakeholders, construction and disaster management personnel and affected society endeavors to capture the causes of success and failure of this massive reconstruction effort. The research aims to establish the project success criteria, and to explore the causes of success and failure as applicable to such mega disaster. Data was gathered through survey questionnaires, structured and semi structured interviews of key stakeholders. The results were validated using statistical methods. Meeting the schedule, budget and stakeholders’ satisfaction evolved as primary success criteria for measuring the performance of post disaster construction projects. From the response on fifty-five variables, this study extracted important success and failure factors of post-disaster reconstruction projects by using factors analysis. Clarity of goals, detailed planning, full-time experienced project manager, detailed written contracts and effective monitoring emerged as five critical success factors. Five factors critical to failure factors were shortage of resources, financial problems, lengthy decision process, excessive subletting and excessive centralization. A framework to deal with serious large scale calamities and for better handling of the mega reconstruction and rehabilitation effort is proposed. This study also develops a comprehensive base for future research, especially in the determination of success factors in rehabilitation and reconstruction projects.  Keywords: Critical Success Factors, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction  Posttraumatic stress and psychiatric co-morbidity following bombing in Iraq: the role of shattered world assumptions and altered self-capacities  CHUNG, Man Cheung (1); FREH, Fuaad Mohammed (2); DALLOS, Rudi (2)  1: Zayed University, United Arab Emirates,; 2: University of Plymouth, UK,  Presenting author: CHUNG, Man Cheung  man.chung@zu.ac.ae  Whilst research has looked at posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and psychiatric co-morbidity among civilians exposed to bombing (e.g. Duchet et al, 2000), there is a lack of longitudinal data on the development of these outcomes and the psychological factors associated with them, particularly among Iraqi civilians. To investigate 1) the trajectory of PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity following bombing among civilians in Iraq and 2) the link between shattered world assumptions, altered self-capacities and identified health outcomes. One hundred and eighty (F=90, M=90) Iraqi civilians exposed to first time bombing were recruited from the Ministry of Health approximately one month (time 1) after the bombing and five months (time 2) after the baseline assessment. They completed the posttraumatic stress diagnostic scale, the general health questionnaire-28, the world assumptions questionnaires and the inventory of altered self-capacities. There was a significant decline in the proportion of people meeting the diagnostic criteria for PTSD (n=138 baseline vs 121 follow-up). All psychiatric co-morbid symptoms also declined significantly over time. For the cross-sectional analysis, controlling for demographic variables, regression analysis showed that controllability of events (β=-0.21), safety and vulnerability (β=0.30) and affect dysregulation (β=0.37) significantly predicted PTSD time 1. Controllability of events (β=-0.19) and affect dysregulation (β=0.33) also predicted psychiatric co-morbidity at time 1. For the prospective analysis, controlling for PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity at time 1, none of the shattered world assumption and altered self-capacity dimensions predicted PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity at time 2. These findings would be discussed in terms of individual resilience. The paper concludes that following bombing, civilians developed PTSD and psychiatric co-morbidity which declined over time. Civilians’ perceptions of their ability to control events in the world and regulate their affect had a short term impact on the severity of these symptoms.  Keywords: Posttraumatic stress, bombing, shattered world assumptions, altered self-capacities  What role for soldiers?  CLARKE, John L.  Marshall Center, Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: CLARKE, John L.  clarkej@marshallcenter.org  In an era of declining budgets, governments are increasingly relying on the armed forces to provide disaster relief and humanitarian aid, both domestically and internationally, in addition to other domestic contingencies. Yet defense budgets in most countries are also declining. This presentation will examine the role for military forces in managing these crises and their consequences. It will identify what soldiers can, must, should and should not do in support of civil authorities. It will lay out the appropriate criteria for defense support to civil authority, provide and elaborate on five categories of mission for the armed forces and make recommendations on how the military should be employed and what kinds of military forces are appropriate and capable for these kinds of missions. The intent is to provide civil authorities and the disaster management community with information that will aid their decison making on the role of the military in disaster management.  Keywords: military, soldiers, disasters, defense  Strengthening resilience through learning and transformation  CLOT, Nicole  Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation  Presenting author: CLOT, Nicole  nicole.clot@helvetas.org  There is no single answer of managing risks or adapting to the changing climate. A balanced portfolio of measures to enhance local collective action and create subsidiary structures at national and international scales as well as multiple hazard risk management approaches are essential to strengthen resilience. The IPCC Special Report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation puts particular emphasis on resilience building and strongly emphasizes that learning is key for contributing to resilience. The objective of the input is to provide food for a discussion on how NGOs, practitioners and donors can enhance the effect of learning and transformation in humanitarian and development work. Based on the three case studies presented by HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation, Caritas Switzerland and Swiss Red Cross, a set of features had been identified contributing to resilience building. All case studies underline the importance of learning and transformation as a major source for resilience building. The special report emphasizes that a mix of actions ranging from incremental steps to transformational changes are crucial to reduce the adverse impacts of extreme events. While incremental steps aim to improve efficiency within existing technological, governance, and value systems, transformation involves alterations of fundamental attributes of a system such as regulatory or legislative regimes, biophysical or technological systems. Especially in countries where vulnerability is high and the adaptive capacity low, changes in extreme climate and weather events can make it difficult for systems to adapt sustainably without transformational changes. So the main questions are therefore what are the mechanisms which positively shape such a learning environment? What is necessary that a community envisages learning as key or even undergoes such a transformational change? How can we support these communities in this process or is it out of our reach?  USA building code changes resulting from 9/11 attacks  CORLEY, William Gene  CTLGroup, United States of America  Presenting author: CORLEY, William Gene  gcorley@ctlgroup.com  Although commercial buildings cannot be designed to survive impact from the largest aircraft and still be commercially viable, the 9/11 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City disclosed several places where building codes could be improved to increse surviveability of occupants in extreme events. The American Society of Civil Engineers and Federal Emergency Management Agency carried out an investigation, headed by the author, of building performance of the twin towers after the 9/11 attacks. This was followed by an extensive research study by NIST. Based on the ASCE/FEMA and NIST studies, a large number of building standards changes were recommended. This paper describes the attacks, indicates how the towers collapsed, summarizes the recommended standards changes and presents those changes that have been made to date. The impact on building safety during extreme events is discussed.  Keywords: Terrorism, 9/11 attacks, Building Standards, Robustness, Safety  A long term building capacity model that prepares for effective disaster relief  COUPET, Sidney; COPPOLA, Christopher  Doctors United For Haiti (DUFH), United States of America  Presenting author: COUPET, Sidney  scoupet@umich.edu  Doctors United For Haiti (DUFH) is an international nonprofit organization that brings healthcare volunteers to Haiti with the main focus of sharing knowledge, skills and 115 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • relationship building that has developed a network of capable local healthcare providers. This network can easily be used to help coordinate relief during an emergency in Haiti, such as the 2010 earthquake, as well as provide an opportunity for a safe transition from emergency planning to more longterm interventions. DUFH volunteers visit Haiti and work side by side with local Haitian healthcare providers who are working in private practice, government facilities, faith-based organizations, or non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The volunteers and the local Haitian healthcare providers form an integrated team that delivers quality care and identify opportunities for improvement within their respective facilities in Haiti. Relationship building occurs through a symbiotic beneficial experience where the local Haitian healthcare provider is empowered and receives direct support while volunteers receive an international experience that is transferable to their home institutions. These experiences are measured and followed through the DUFH database. DUFH has partnered with local providers/facilities in the north, central and south Haiti where integrated teams deliver primary and preventative services in a decentralized fashion. This would provide a platform to streamline and coordinate disaster relief plans around the country that would allow Haitian nationals to be involved and become a legitimate partner, which has major diplomatic implications. DUFH’s model also encourages Haitian ownership in that it provides an opportunity for local healthcare providers to function and become more competitive in their own country. This provides an opportunity for international aid organizations to safely and confidently transfer power back to Haitians after a disaster in their country. Through DUFH’s model we can prepare Haiti for future disasters while simultaneously strengthening Haiti’s healthcare system.  Keywords: Capacity Building, Haiti Healthcare System, Integrated Delivery Team  How the emergency 2.0 Wiki can help build resilient communities, empowered with the knowledge to use web 2.0 and social media in emergencies  CULLETON, Eileen  Emergency 2.0 Wiki Ltd, Australia  Presenting author: CULLETON, Eileen  eileenculleton@gmail.com  During the unprecedented disasters that swept the globe in 2011, the world witnessed the empowering nature of social media to instantly broadcast and amplify emergency warnings, provide real time localised information and interactive maps, crowdsource information from citizens and enable them to seek information for themselves, share information and directly help people in need. Yet despite its rising popularity, the use of social media is still not a normal part of mainstream emergency communications. Key reasons are the challenge and risk this new technology poses and a lack of understanding across the community of how to use these new technologies in emergency communications. The Emergency 2.0 Wiki was developed as a free global resource and collaborative model to facilitate global sharing and advancing knowledge on how to effectively utilise web 2.0 and social media in emergency management communications 116 IDRC DAVOS 2012 while minimizing risk. An initiative of the Government 2.0 QLD community of practice in Australia and embraced globally, the wiki aims to help build resilient communities, empowered with the knowledge to use social media in emergency communications. It provides tips on how to use social media to better prepare for, respond to and recover from emergencies. This includes a global directory of contacts for emergency agencies and NGOs and emergency apps for mobile devices. Practical guidelines, checklists, case studies and resources assist the emergency sector, government, business, education and NGOs to use social networks, crowdsourcing and crisis mapping for emergency management and business continuity planning. The guidelines cover all phases of emergency management; prevention, preparation, response and recovery and include a risk and mitigation checklist. Sourced from ‘the wisdom of the crowd’; professionals across all industry sectors: emergency, government, education, health, business, NGO, business and the media, the wiki is a living resource, updated to incorporate new technologies and methodologies.  Keywords: Emergency20wiki, social networks, community resilience  Proposed seismic risk reduction program for lifelines in the megacity of Tehran, Iran  DARDAEI, Sadegh; SHAKIB, Hamzeh  Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of  Presenting author: SHAKIB, Hamzeh  shakib@modares.ac.ir  The overall seismic risk of Tehran shows that this megacity has high potential of seismic hazard and vulnerable city elements such as: residential, commercial, official, and general buildings, lifelines, and infrastructure. Lifelines and infrastructures are important facilities for maintaining the standard of human life. The total length of Tehran highways and streets are about 10,000 km. The road network covers physically well the whole area in the megacity of Tehran. However, in the southern parts of the city, areas with narrow roads (3–6 m width) exist. Bridge structures are considered together with the road network. The inventory list of bridges in Tehran includes about 250 bridges. In Tehran, nearly 80 water reservoirs exist and primarily concentrate in the northern parts of the city due to the geographic topology. Water transmission pipes with a total length of 9,000 km are located in the urban areas. The material types are precast reinforced concrete, steel, and ductile iron with varying diameters. The total length of natural gas pipes in Tehran is about 1,310 km. This 40-year-old gas pipeline is made of approximately 80% carbon steel and 20% polyethylene. The information about seismic damage of infrastructures and lifelines is very important for the preparation phase of seismic disaster management plan. The lessons from previous earthquakes in the various cities in the world show that almost all infrastructures will go out of operational services. However, gas damage may cause a serious secondary disaster. Considering the high level of seismic hazard and the number of existing vulnerable Infrastructures and lifelines, it is absolutely essential to prepare a regional seismic disaster prevention plan to mitigate possible seismic damage in Tehran. This paper is an attempt to propose a seismic risk reduction program for Infrastructures and lifelines of the city.  Keywords: Seismic Risk Reduction, damage, lifelines, Tehran  Addressing risks of water stress in farming by smallholders: examples from India  DAS GUPTA, Partha R  Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland  Presenting author: DAS GUPTA, Partha R  partha.dasgupta@syngenta.com  Water is most vital of all essential elements of agriculture. Only a third of India’s arable land is irrigated. Fluctuations in the monsoon rains endanger crops from drought, submergence, and pests and diseases. This is reflected in year to year fluctuations in production and productivity, particularly in eastern and central India where nearly half of India’s rice crop is grown, mainly rain-fed. Majority of the projects undertaken by Syngenta Foundation in India are situated in these regions. Whereas rice provides food to small and marginal farmers, for cash income they need to grow something of a higher value e.g. vegetables and fruits. Vegetables suit small farmers well and can fetch handsome returns from holdings as small as 1/10th of a hectare, provided the farmer has some access to irrigation. Otherwise, with higher cost of inputs, growing vegetables would be a greater risk than of growing rice. Therefore, as the Foundation embarked on promotion of vegetable cultivation, it also worked towards increasing water resources for irrigation. Farmers’ groups were assisted to harness rainwater and to a lesser extent tapping ground water, using low-cost methods and devices, e.g., rejuvenating community tanks, building low-cost check dams, small rainwater ponds, land shaping, and dug wells. Farmers’ groups were also facilitated to share the use of pumps for lifting water and low-cost drip systems for enhancing water use efficiency. Farmers were also assisted to save crops from diseases and pests using scientific techniques. The paper discusses how these interventions alleviated risks and enabled farmers to successfully grow vegetables and earn decent income from collective marketing of their produce.  Environmental and ecological solutions 21st century technology  DE LA POMERAI, Garry  VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom  Presenting author: DE LA POMERAI, Garry  garry@soluzionsystems.com  Drought pacification rain making systems, marginal land crop production enhancement, and saltwater irrigation all were futuristic terminologies until the 21st century. Thanks to a group of scientists based within UAE many of today’s environmental and humanitarian challenges can now be addressed using state of the art molecular restructuring of water, with numerous benefits. A clear cloudless sky is truly a colossal storehouse for huge supplies of fresh water, although it is a mistake to preach that the atmospheric vapours are supposedly a distillate. According to reliable scientific findings the atmospheric water conversely holds a great deal of numerous chemicals. Magnetized water molecules will radically alter and accelerate physical and chemical transformations; allowing rain clouds to be created; clouds to be discharged in specific locations; irrigation to be enhanced to produce class A crops within marginal land; the enhancement of existing crops to increase productivity; ability to desalinate salt contaminated ground back into production; improve the propagation of seeds; strengthening and speeding up new plants growth; reduce the use of fertilizers; reduce the disease rate; enable the use of brackish salt water as irrigation with increased benefits over fresh water; improve fresh drinking water supplies reducing the quantity required but retaining the benefits to humans and animals. This science is the secret to the key to unlock access to a variety of challenges both now within our fragile world and in future within a potential crisis ridden world with conflict over food production and supply and fresh water management and availability. This presentation will outline the key initiatives through the use of magnetic technology applications that will help address, ease and solve many of today’s humanitarian challenges in marginal, drought and famine challenged environments. Keywords: Food, Rain, Irrigation, Drought, Famine.  READ - Risk Exposure Awareness and Deflection creating an organization-wide risk awareness program  DE LANDGRAAF, Arjen  Bricade Ltd, New Zealand  Presenting author: DE LANDGRAAF, Arjen  aw.de.landgraaf@bricade.com  System and Data breaches can be game changers for organizations that suffer major incidents. The key is to prevent the significant breach from happening in the first place. That means making Risk Awareness a part of the corporate ethos, and training employees to focus on this issue. Unfortunately, many companies don't dedicate sufficient resources to this area, and no doubt we'll be discussing information security and data breaches for many years to come. The culture embedded in the terms CERTs and SCIRTs say it all: emergency response, respectively incident response. It’s all about taking re-active action after the damage is done. It’s all about fixing the damage, as opposed to pro-active preventing that damage from happening in the first place. CERTs and CSIRTs require a paradigm shift - The pure focus on technological risks only needs a proper shake-up. There are many more types of risk an organization is exposed to. What You Don’t Know That You Don’t Know. Throughout the organization a full awareness is needed that the baddies are at least 2 years ahead of the defenders. That those baddies only need to focus on that one single point of weakness, while defenders need to guard 360/360 360-degree, 24x7 and holistic. It is of crucial importance all employees, management and owners of any organization take responsibility – if you cross the street without looking, you know what may happen. If you are gullible in cyberspace, it’s nothing different than the real world. 117 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: Risk Awareness, IT-Security, Industry risks, Organization Specific risks  A comparison of functional outcomes at one year between two cohorts of patients with extremity limb trauma following the Haitian earthquake in 2010  DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (1); LE PERFF, Hervé (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (2); MULLER, Joel (2); KHALLAF, Nezha (2); SHANG, Lou (2)  1: ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of; 2: LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France  Presenting author: BLACKWELL, Nikki  nikki@alima-ngo.org  Many injured earthquake survivors have contaminated, open limb fractures, resource constraints compromise optimal care. Some advocate immediate amputation to treat haemorrhage and crush syndrome, citing the need for only basic equipment with short hospitalisation and recovery. Others promote limb preservation with reconstructive surgery, preventing disability and offering better functional outcomes. The feasibility of limb preservation in the emergency response phase is uncertain; a comparison of outcomes is needed. This study aims to provide evidence to further this discussion. Open prospective survey of Haitian earthquake victims after reconstructive surgery or amputation at 1 year and 2 years (on-going) with multi-dimensional evaluations. Data analysis employed conventional methods (p<0.05 (S*)) 289 patients (188 amputees (A), 101 surgically reconstructed (LS)) were evaluated at 1 year. Demographics: female 58%, mean age 30 years, leg injury (69%). 47% had additional severe injuries (A:58%, LS:42%) (S*): fractures 61% (A:54%, LS:76%); soft tissue lesions: 21% (A:27%, LS:11%); open: 20% (A:21%, LS:18%), closed: 20% (A :47%, LS :5%), traumatic amputation (10%; A:15%) crush injury 12 (A:19%, LS:3%) and severe soft tissue damage 9% (A:10%, LS:7%) (S*). Mean hospitalisation was 56 days, prolonged stays (> 90 d) were more frequent in amputees (S*). 64% had persistent pain (A:78%; LS:57%)(S*); Satisfaction correlated with pain intensity. 50% of patients considered themselves “cured“ (A: 61%; LS: 31%)(S*). 100% of patients treated with a reconstructive approach would choose this management again. If an amputation was not clinically mandatory, 79% of amputees would prefer reconstructive treatment. Humanitarian actors responding to disasters must take into account that limb trauma patients require prolonged followup. Given the duration of care necessary it is not always obligatory to provide ‘definitive care’ in the rudimentary conditions immediately after a catastrophe. The priority in the first days is thorough wound debridement and haemorrhage control, allowing time for specialised surgical teams and facilities to be established. 118  Keywords: limb trauma, amputation, reconstructive surgery, earthquake, disaster One-year follow up of care received by a cohort of patients treated with limb amputation following the earthquake in Haiti  DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (1); LE PERFF, Hervé (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (2); MULLER, Joel (2); KHALLAF, Nezha (2); SHANG, Lou (2)  1: ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of; 2: LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France  Presenting author: BLACKWELL, Nikki  nikki@alima-ngo.org  Severe limb trauma is common in earthquake survivors. Long term outcome assessment of patients rarely occurs. The aim is an assessment at 12-months of a cohort of people treated with limb amputation for injuries received in the Haiti earthquake. Patients injured during the earthquake with post-traumatic limb amputation, were recruited by-phone from an existing patient database. Clinical and functional assessments were conducted by a doctor specialised in rehabilitation and a physiotherapist between January and March 2011. Data analysis consisted of cross and frequency tables, Pearson Chi2 and Student t-test for independence and means comparisons. A 2-year assessment will also occur. Of 188 patients assessed: Mean age 28yr (2-66yr), 55 % (105) female, 21 % (40) upper limb amputees (ULA), 79 %(148) lower limb amputees (LLA). Amputation was the primary surgical treatment in 159 (85%) and was performed more than once in 35% (57). Stump revision rate was 24%(46/188). 92%(136) and 12%(5) of LLA and ULA patients received a prosthesis within a mean of 136 days (16-420 days) (CI 95% [123; 149]). 66%(88) of patients were satisfied with the prosthesis which was worn a mean of 9 hours per day (0-18 hours) (CI95%[8.5; 9.96]). 169/188(91%) patients received physiotherapy. 57%(106) had persistent pain, usually moderate (4.3, as a mean according to VAS), mainly at the stump (90; 90%); 79%(146) had phantom limb perception, not systematically associated with pain (58;40%), rarely (15/58,27%). 5%(9) of patients had skin erosions of the stump, 30%(55) local tenderness. 95%(142), 23%(35) and 68%(99) of the LLA were able to climb stairs, run and dance. 49%(89) and 23%(41) of the patients were satisfied or very satisfied with functional results. Amputation is not a simple undertaking in the aftermath of disasters. Hospitalisation may be prolonged, second surgical interventions and complications are not uncommon and prolonged rehabilitation is required.  Keywords: amputation, limb trauma, earthquake, reconstructive surgery  Developing best practices for the resettlement of environmental migrants: the next step  DES MARAIS, Eric Anthony  University of Denver, United States of America  Presenting author: DES MARAIS, Eric Anthony  Eric.DesMarais@du.edu  It is expected that climate change will result in increased environmental degradation, which will in turn precipitate an increase in migration. While most natural disasters result in temporary displacement, increased desertification, rising sea levels, and increased flooding will likely correlate to increased permanent migration. In these cases, migration should be viewed as an adaptive response, to be facilitated with careful planning. However, few countries have engaged in any sort of planning for the permanent resettlement of people displaced by disaster. Since hazard resettlement has the potential to marginalize environmental migrants (especially vulnerable populations such as women, children, and older adults), resettlement planning and implementation must incorporate practices that empower these populations. This presentation seeks to first highlight important examples that illustrate the difficulties of resettlement. This will be followed by a discussion of what might be included in a best practice framework for resettlement. According to the most recent IPCC Climate Change Report, a key to success is a focus on local level adaptation that involves community stakeholders in the planning and decision-making process. Therefore the framework will identify how to involve community members in various stages of plan development including: the assessment of risk and resilience for their community; the assessment of permanent migration as a potential adaptation for their community; the identification of possible locations for resettlement; the assessment of their comparative advantage in their new communities; and collaborative exchanges with their potential hosts. The presentation will conclude with a discussion of areas for research that would help inform the development of best practices for resettlement. Keywords: Climates of Migration  Bundling of risks for disaster proofing  DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan  CARE, India, Republic of  Presenting author: DEVABALAN, Rajagopalan  rdevabalan@careindia.org  In India, insurance providers traditionally focused on either offering low cost products for covering insignificant risk events or unaffordable products for high value cover in rural areas. CARE as part of its Insure Lives and Livelihoods project, introduced micro insurance services in 2006 as part of long range risk reduction strategy in coastal districts of Tamil Nadu affected by 2004 Tsunami in collaboration with private insurance providers. CARE commissioned a risk assessment study through an external agency to understand the risk needs of low income communities, assessing premium capacities of low income households, most preferred mode of premium payment and most favoured channel partner for distribution and defining benefits of compensation. The study also revealed several challenges that needs to be overcome before gaining rightful place for micro insurance services in low income households and on such major challenge was bundling of products. The participants of the study opined that they need a product that can cover their basic risks. Majority of the people in coastal areas employed in informal economy of those most of them landless labourers in the absence of formal social security schemes, they preferred to have cover for property against natural disaster, illness, accidents, wage loss, disability, and death cover besides covering their spouse too. CARE worked with the insurance provider to design product based on the recommendations of the study. The product designed offers comprehensive risk cover to a family at low value premium, the risk covered are accidents related hospitalization, illness, wage loss, death, disability and cover for huts against natural disaster and accidents. The project so far distributed 345,000 insurance plans and the claim experience was fairly good; project helped 16,468 households seek claims worth of over 950,000 USD. The claim experience demonstrates relevance of insurance services to low income households.  Keywords: Micro insurance, risk reduction  Integrating science with practice to advocate tsunami risk reduction interventions  DI MAURO, Manuela (1); GRIFFIN, Jonathan (2); WIBOWO, Agus (3); TUCKER, Brian (4); MEGAWATI, Kusnowidjaja (1,5)  1: Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; 2: Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, Indonesia; 3: Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB), Indonesia; 4: GeoHazards International, California; 5: Civil and Environmental Ingeneering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore  Presenting author: DI MAURO, Manuela  manuela@ntu.edu.sg  Integration between research and practice, partnerships among experts and decision makers are among the priorities of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. This paper describes a ‘success story’ demonstrating how collaboration among research and practitioners can produce high-quality science targeted to disaster risk reduction, providing the government with strong basis for decision making. The Sunda Megathrust is a major fault running along a large part of Indonesia and was the source of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Evidence shows that an earthquake of magnitude 8.9-9 is likely along the Sunda Megathrust within the next few decades. This can generate a tsunami that would inundate Padang, West Sumatra, where c. 900,000 people live, reaching the city in less than 30 minutes. During the April 11 2012 earthquake, which did not generate a large tsunami, the warning was disseminated 30 minutes after the earthquake. The roads were gridlocked by traffic jams, trapping people for hours. In response to this event, the Indonesian Government tasked the Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) to develop a Master Plan for managing Indonesia’s tsunami risk. This was seen by the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, the Earth Observatory of Singapore and GeoHazards International as a unique opportunity to join efforts and support BNPB. Specifically to provide rigorous evidence for inclusion of vertical evacuation structures in Indonesia’s tsunami management strategy, paying particular attention to the visualisation of the outcomes targeted for communication to specific Government audiences. This paper aims to: provide examples of interventions for 119 Oral presentations Holistic Risk Management can only be achieved once organizational security program is recognized as a benefit and a contributor to profit. The READ approach is designed to achieve such holistic Risk Awareness amongst all employees, management and business partners. IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 tsunami risk reduction; disseminate further the issue faced by the West-Sumatran communities; and demonstrate the effectiveness and necessity of integrating the work of scientists, government and international organisations. Through this collaboration, the scientific message has been targeted to the needs of policy makers, providing them with rigorous evidence to support decision making.  Keywords: disaster risk reduction, tsunami risk, government, integrated research, collaborative research  A regional multi-risk assessment approach to support the definition public mitigation strategies  DIMAURO, Carmelo (1); BULDRINI, Marco (2); OLIVERI, Stefano (3); SEMINATI, Paolo (3); FRATTINI, Paolo (4)  1: RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of; 2: NIER Ingegneria, Italy; 3: Ecometrics Srl, Italy; 4: Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Universit`a degli Studi di Milano Bicocca, Milano, Italy  Presenting author: DIMAURO, Carmelo  cdimauro.rgs@tiscali.it  In order to define mitigation strategies, the regional public administrations in charge of prevention policies have to manage large territories characterized by multiple types of risks, i.e. natural and technological risks. They need to identify scientifically sound solutions, based on a compromise between the conflicting objectives of the relevant stakeholders. Natural and technological risks are characterized by different phenomenology, frequency of occurrence, magnitude of impact. They also present different level of acceptability and perception among stakeholders. Therefore, multi-risk assessment is an innovative approach for identifying the most critical areas of a region and can support public authorities in defining and prioritising mitigation and emergency management strategies. Multi-risk approach poses many challenges because it requires combining a large amount of information about the hazards, the exposed targets and the related vulnerability values. The systematic and coherent interpretation of such information by the decision-makers is not simple, in particular when this information supports a decision-making process involving many stakeholders. Hence, it is particularly interesting and effective to have a tool that facilitates the integration of the information and the communication to and among stakeholders. Decision-making in this field is an iterative cognitive process and, for this reason, decision support applications must be built in a manner that permits changes to occur easily and quickly, without losing in accuracy of reference information. This improves the efficiency of the negotiation process allowing stakeholders to screen and to focus on the relevant dimension of the problem of concern. The conference contribution will report the results of a public programme aiming at defining multi-risk mitigation plans in Italy and will illustrate the main functionality of the related GIS-based decision support system for defining mitigation strategies. In particular, the focus will be laid on how such an approach meets the requirements of the risk management decision process.  Keywords: Multi-risk assessment, decision-making mitigation strategies, risk management 120 process,  Weather aware, climate prepared.  DONOVAN, Tim; BUTCHER, Tom  Met Office, United Kingdom  Presenting author: DONOVAN, Tim  tim.donovan@metoffice.gov.uk  The UK Met Office has been involved in understanding and the management of weather and climate risks for over 150 years. Through its public weather service it has a key role in forecasting and communicating information about severe weather events to the public and community responders. In addition, it supports national and local government agencies plan for climate change risks. Similar work is also carried out on an international scale. The UK Met Office works in partnership with National Meteorological Services in developing countries to increase capacity to provide weather and climate services in order to reduce the impacts of natural disasters on the vulnerable and to increase community resilience to the impacts of climate change. Weather and climate services extend across a wide range of timescales: from providing short range warnings on the progression of a tropical cyclone, advice on likelihood of drought seasons ahead, to providing analysis on the changing risks of disasters over the next century. The presentation will focus on examples of how our partnerships deliver tailored services to vulnerable communities that allow them to make smarter decisions and add real value to people's lives.  Keywords: Weather, climate, science, hazrad, warning.  Underpinning sustainability with advanced and visual analytics within the intelligent operations center  DONOVANG-KUHLISCH, Margarete Charlotte (1); SMALL, Michael Kenneth (2)  1: IBM Deutschland GmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: IBM Middle East, United Arabian Emirates  Presenting author: DONOVANG-KUHLISCH, Margarete Charlotte  mdk@de.ibm.com  Information superiority is one of the primary issues for Network Enabled Capabilities (NEC) in future crisis management operations that will have to operate in an environment of efficient collaboration and informed decision making in a value network. Exploiting the network-enabled information flows turns out to be the only effective way to meet the challenges and threats we face in this modern, interconnected world. Enhanced inter-agency and intercompany communication and collaboration has been defined as the capability to deliver information superiority when required to enable agile and informed decision making to underpin effects-based operations: delivering the right effect, at the right time, to achieve the outcome required. Challenges and threats in our modern world are global and multi-faceted requiring complex responses: governments and corporations buoyed by the realization that the interests of both are mutually engage, are pursuing joint corporate social responsibility to make life and business conduct safe and sustainable. One outcome is increasing openness: organisations increasingly publish data and knowledge in open formats and open spaces and (others) provide tools to gain insight from this open and accessible data. Network enablement increases inclusion and participation of people in all domains of private and public life; internet-enabled social networking contributes to data available for analysis and better understanding of human factors. This case study summarizes technology-based social responsibility trends and illustrates how emerging technologies like visual analytics of spatio-temporal data can achieve semantic interoperability and transparency within large amounts of data linked through ontologies and common metadata models.  Keywords: Smarter Planet, Advanced and Visual Analytics, SpatioTemporal Data, Open Data, Corporate Social Responsibility, Critical Infrastructure Protection  Early detection, surveillance of wildfires and the integration into fire management systems  DREIBACH, Joachim Franz  Fire Watch international AG, Switzerland  Presenting author: DREIBACH, Joachim Franz  j.dreibach@international.fire-watch.ch  During the last years, worldwide more and more optical systems (video based) are installed for the detection and surveillance of forest fires. The precocious detection of wildfires, determining their precise location, and the rapid alert of intervention teams all play major roles in reducing the size and extent of fires and therefore limiting their effect and damage. The evaluation of the yearly fire reports provides figures, which do not show much positive results and improvements to areas operating such technologies. No reduction of the average annual burned areas monitored by video systems. On the opposite, the French Center of Research and Experience has been observing over the past 10 years a reduction of the average annual burned area by 50% while at the same time the average temperature has been rising slightly and forest are increasingly dry with rain become more and more scarce. In this means, there seems to be a difference between the capability of early detection and simply a way for visual monitoring of a starting fire. There are actually no common agreed specifications or parameters defined to qualify a optical detection system for a qualified detection system or to classify a technical solution to a monitoring system. The presentation shows capabilities of different, common used technologies for wildfire surveillance and successfully integrated solutions for early detection and integration into fire management procedures. And, after 10 years of evaluation, such long term results may be used to establish first parameters and procedures for a international standardisation of such technology.  Keywords: Early Detection, Fire, Surveilance, Standardisation, Management  A new public health concept for risk governance of vector-borne infections  DRESSEL, Kerstin Maja; SCHUELE, Steffen  sine-Institut gGmbH, Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: DRESSEL, Kerstin Maja  kerstin.dressel@sine-institut.de  Due to environmental and socio-economic changes, emerging diseases with zoonotic potential will be an increasing challenge for public health in Europe. The risks and the consequences triggered by so-called vector-borne diseases for public health in Europe are just starting to emerge in public awareness. This is clearly shown by recent events such as Chikungunya in Italy and the spread of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in Europe. The EU-funded project ‘Biology and control of vector-borne infections – EDENext’ is dedicated to these diseases that are transmitted by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks etc. Within EDENext a holistic, transdisciplinary public health approach towards vector-borne diseases was developed. It defines the term “public health” in the scope of this project and suggests a reconceptualisation of public health by adapting the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) for this purpose. The IRGC approach is distinguished from more classical risk governance approaches, inter alia, by an explicit inclusion of a systematic concern assessment (of public concerns and perceptions) as the other part of risk appraisal that is scientific risk assessment. This innovative new risk governance approach towards public health will be introduced and exemplified by a rodent-borne transmitted Hanta virus disease in Germany. First results of a risk perception and risk communication study based on in-depth interviews with risk management and relevant stakeholders as well as focus-group research with the general public in endemic regions in Germany will be shown.  Keywords: Risk governance, public health, vector-borne diseases, risk perception, risk communication  Taking into account socio-cultural factors to improve alerting strategies  DRESSEL, Kerstin; PFEIL, Patricia  sine Institut gGmbH  Presenting author: DRESSEL, Kerstin  kerstin.dressel@sine-institut.de  Socio-cultural factors, such as age, sex, area of living, previous disaster experience or migration background – to name just a few of the most important ones – have a fundamental influence on the way people perceive and cope with risks and disasters. Meaningful alerting requires taking into account such socio-cultural factors in order to be effective and to reach as most people as possible and, consequently in the hope, to avoid as many casualties as possible. One aspect of the EC-funded project OPTI-ALERT (www.optialert.eu) addresses questions such as how different types of risks (industrial risks as well as severe weather conditions) are perceived in different social-cultural settings in seven examined countries. The explorative study is based upon indepth interviews with experts of crisis management and crisis communication, biographical interviews with individuals with disaster experience and focus-group interviews conducted. All three qualitative methods have been applied in the following countries: Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden. The analysis of the material focused upon differences in risk perception, risk knowledge, coping strategies and information behavior and expectations (including new media). Findings include the following: the choice of the alerting tool should correlate with the age of the recipients; the alert message should correlate with the area of living; and the choice of the sender of the alerting should correlate with the respective national context. For improvements in alerting strategies, crisis management should be aware of these important correlations. 121 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  1: Université du Québec À Montréal (Quebec University at Montreal) UQAM, Canada; 2: Gh. ASACHI University, Iasi, Romania  Presenting author: DUMITRIU, Camelia  dumitriu.camelia@uqam.ca  The evolving threat to school safety caused by acts of extreme violence is explicitly addressed by the “Standard for Natural and Man-Made Hazards to Higher Education Institutions” (ANSI, 2010). School violence has become a “global phenomenon that affects one of the core institutions of modern society […] in virtually all nation-states” (Akiba et al., 2002). This study presents the results of an interdisciplinary threeyear research project on disaster management planning for coping with acts of extreme violence in schools. The project was funded by the SSH Research Council of Canada and carried out by an academic team from UQAM (Montreal School of Business) in collaboration with researchers from six countries. We collected data in six countries on four continents and interviewed relevant stakeholders (regarding the event/school/ community/national educational system) in ten schools that had experienced an act of extreme violence (a multiple-victim event). We adapted and then used the ‟Pressure and Release” and ‟Triangle of Risk” models to analyze the preparedness action carried out by the selected organizations, their coping capacity, and their response actions. We identified: (a) eight root causes and dynamic pressures that can increase the vulnerability of the educational system to man-made hazards and its susceptibility to the impact of these hazards, (b) the main deficiencies in preparedness, and (c) the challenges raised by the intervention process and the disaster recovery stage. A framework for disaster management planning was developed to integrate these findings. Our results support the United Nations’ findings (A Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2004) and will help policymakers and educational institutions to enhance institutional resilience by (a) dealing proactively and effectively with the new emerging risks that are related to school violence, and (b) improving the process of disaster risk management at each stage of the “risk cycle” (prevention, intervention and recovery).  Keywords: disaster risk management, educational system, school violence, institutional resilience, man-made threat  Risk of large oil spills: A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deep Water Horizon  ECKLE, Petrissa; BURGHERR, Peter; MICHAUX, Edouard  Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland  Presenting author: ECKLE, Petrissa  petrissa.eckle@psi.ch  Following the explosion of the exploration drill rig Deep Water Horizon (DWH) in April 2010 that killed eleven workers, 670000 tons of oil were spilled in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). This event was a reminder of the inherent risk of large spills in oil production and transport. The two 122 biggest accidental spills in the period from 1974 to 2010 occurred on the exploration drill rigs Deepwater Horizon and Ixtoc I (1979, GOM, Mexico, 480000 t), accounting for 11.4% of total spill volume of accidental (≥ 200 t) spills. This high contribution of single events to the total spill volume underlines the need to analyze the risk of such rare but very severe events. The quantification of this risk is particularly important in view of the rapid increase in deep (> 305 m depth) and ultra-deep (> 1524 m) offshore drilling, where both a geographical expansion as well as a trend towards drilling at ever greater depths can be seen over the last decade. Based on comprehensive global data of oil spills since 1974, we estimate the expected return frequencies of such very severe oil spill events using extreme value statistics and find a return frequency of a DWH sized spill of less than two decades worldwide at current production levels. We also compare the risk of oil spills from offshore drilling with the risk of spills throughout the entire oil chain, separately for different infrastructures such as pipelines, storage and processing facilities, and tanker transport. Data is extracted from our uniquely comprehensive global Energy Related Severe Accident database (ENSAD) that was established at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in the 1990s.  Keywords: Oil Spills, Risk, Extreme Events,  Integrative risk management  EGGENBERGER, René  armasuisse, Switzerland  Presenting author: EGGENBERGER, René  rene.eggenberger@armasuisse.ch  Natural and manmade catastrophes are increasingly large scale and often affect major parts of our multilingual and intercultural societies. Authorities and citizens are facing threats that are new and fuzzy in quality an of impact. One approach to deal with uncertainty and complexity is to build up a resilient society. Timely and professional risk communication that considers linguistic and cultural aspects and the exploitation of the potential of social media as well are key towards a more resilient society. There is still a huge unexploited potential to set free by using social media for risk and crisis communication.  Processing satellite imagery for mapping physical exposure globally  EHRLICH, Daniele; HALKIA, Stamatia; KEMPER, Thomas; PESARESI, Martino; SOILLE, Pierre  Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: EHRLICH, Daniele  daniele.ehrlich@jrc.ec.europa.eu  Disaster risk models require exposure and hazard information. Physical exposure – information on villages, towns, cities and metropolitans areas - is still not available in a standardized form for local to national assessment, for properly quantifying disaster hotspots globally, or for between countries risk comparisons. The Global Exposure Database for Global Earthquake Model is the first initiative that addresses the systematic collection and population of a global exposure database. That database also needs to be populated. A potential source for up to date exposure information is provided by the large volume of satellite imagery available in image archives that are continuously updated. Medium scale and very fine scale satellite imagery is collected by space agencies and increasingly by private satellite operators. These data awaits now to be processed into exposure information that can be used within disaster risk models. That conversion from imagery displaying the surface of the Earth into human settlement layers and then exposure parameters to be used in risk models is underway. However, image processing information technology infrastructure is not typically designed to process massive volume of data covering countries and continents. New initiatives like the Global Human Settlement Layer analysis system developed at the Joint Research Centre and presented herein aims to analyze human settlements globally. The system can process the gigantic data volume required to cover continents or even the entirety of the Earth’s land masses. The presentations will illustrate examples of human settlement layers to be used as proxy variables for exposure. In particular, the presentation will show example of continental wide human settlement mapping, on systematic comparison of largest metropolitan areas, on changes in the extent of human settlement in time, and will briefly illustrate the complexity of human settlements as seen from very detailed satellite imagery.  Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP)  ELGIN, K. Gokhan  Istanbul Project Coordination Unit, Istanbul Governorship  Presenting author: ELGIN, K. Gokhan  kundak@itu.edu.tr  Istanbul is located in seismic-prone area close to the North Anatolian Fault that makes it highly vulnerable to earthquakes when it is combined with its high population and its commercial and industrial densities. Considering the probability in the coming years that a major earthquake in Turkey is likely to bring mass destruction to the physical environment and the economic vitality along with the high risk of death toll, there is an urgent need to shift the existing faith-oriented, reactive, and recovery based policies into proactive, mitigation-oriented and preventive approaches. The Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation Project (ISMEP), financed by the World Bank and European Investment Bank, Council of Europe Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, is a significant attempt in order to improve the city of Istanbul's preparedness for a potential earthquake by implementing the essential principles of comprehensive disaster management ISMEP Project consists of three components: (A) improving the institutional and technical capacity for disaster management and emergency response, (B) reduction of seismic risk for critical public buildings and (C) supporting measures for better enforcement of building codes and land use plans. Supervision and the realization of the activities within the scope of the project are conducted by Istanbul Project Coordination Unit under the roof of Governorship of Istanbul. In order to raise awareness and preparedness level, several communication and training programs are being conducted with Istanbul community. Significant progress has been begun depending what we have learnt from the past disasters in Turkey and all over the world. Therefore, ISMEP is promoted as an outstanding model for the design and implementation of other national and international projects and activities in the field of disaster risk mitigation.  Risk assessment of the buried fuel pipelines in the City of Kermanshah, Iran  ESKANDARI, Mohammad; SADEGHI KOMJANI, Niloofar; MOGHIMI, Sanam  Young researchers Club, Iran, Islamic Republic of  Presenting author: SADEGHI KOMJANI, Niloofar  nilli_s@yahoo.com  Iran is one of the most seismically active countries in the world, being crossed by several major fault lines that cover at least 90% of the country. As a result, earthquakes in Iran occur often and are destructive. Lifelines such as fuel pipeline systems are geographically dispersed over broad areas, and are exposed to a wide range of seismic and geotechnical hazards, community uses, and interactions with other sectors of the built environment. This paper, in respect of damage analysis, concentrates on the assessment of fuel pipeline systems buried underneath the city of Kermanshah, leakage and failure in pipelines and post-earthquake fires. Assessment of the seismic damage to buried fuel pipelines of Kermanshah is calculated for three probable scenario earthquakes in the study area. After hazard analyze, using the repair rate relations, damage to pipelines is estimated. All the steps of damage assessment for buried pipelines were written in a GIS environment. Finally, the probability distribution function for the area, the population and the number of houses exposed to fire and explosion after the earthquake are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method through numerous repetitions (10,000 times). Finally two proposed hardening strategies for fire damage reduction in the Kermanshah area are investigated in the second stage and the damage is investigated by repeating the process.  Keywords: Buried Fuel Pipelines, failure, earthquake, Explosion, hardening Strategy  Understanding risk communication: the acceptability of risk communication in a multilingual Europe  ESMAIL, Zarah  Bergische Universität Wuppertal  Presenting author: ESMAIL, Zarah  esmail@uni-wuppertal.de  In 2012 CBRN catastrophes have become an even bigger threat to our society. It has therefore become increasingly important to communicate possible risks in this context more effectively and sufficiently in order to better inform citizens of such threats. In our societies today, we have an increase of individuals and groups that use varying linguistic codes and practices of communication. Such codes and practices are bound to increase and become even more complex as countries continue to connect and work together. It is based on these linguistic practices and the corresponding reference frameworks that information is understood and categorized. The English language remains to be important to bridge the gap between the various mentalities (cultural based mentalities, expert vs. lay person mentality etc.) present in risk communication. Risk communication is therefore dependent 123 Oral presentations  A disaster management framework for coping with acts of extreme violence in school settings: a field study  DUMITRIU, Camelia (1); HUTU, Carmen Aida (2) IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of  Presenting author: FANG, Jian  fangjian@mail.bnu.edu.cn  Flood risk management has always been a great concern in China and huge resources has been invested on the construction of flood-defending systems. After decade years of continuous efforts, most of the major rivers in China have been effectively regulated and the threat from traditional river flooding has been greatly reduced. While as a result of increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events and high vulnerability of small catchments in mountainous area, flash flood has become more and more severe and been the most lethal type of flood. According to statistics, from 2000 to 2009 annual deaths caused by flash flood accounted for about 80% of total flood-related deaths in China. Hunan Province, located in Central China, is characterized with mountainous areas in the south and southwest parts and intensive precipitation in summer due to the east Asian monsoon and typhoon system. As a result, Hunan is highly exposed and vulnerable to flash flood with hundreds of deaths and millions RMB Yuan of losses every year. It is urgent to fully investigate flash flood risk in Hunan Province and take effective measures to minimize the loss. This study investigates the spatio-temporal variation of flash flood in Hunan Province with the dataset of flash flood events and losses from local bureau of civil affairs to indicate the most vulnerable place and time to flash flood. Then meteorological data associated with flash flood events are analyzed to construct the probability distribution of precipitation triggering the hazard. Statistical methods are used to detect the trend of precipitation in the season of flash flood, and based on the distribution of threshold precipitation the risk of flash flood is assessed. Finally, we discuss alternative risk management strategies of flash flood in Hunan Province, highlighting the importance of nonstructural measures.  Keywords: flash flood, risk management, climate change, China  Considering social and cultural dimension of resilient cities  FARZAD BEHTASH, Mohammad Reza (1); KEYNEJHAD, Mohammad Ali (2); PIRBABAEI, Mohammad Taghi (3); AGHABABAEI, Mohammad Taghi (4)  1: Tabriz Islamic Art University - Research & Planning Center of Tehran Municipality, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Tabriz Islamic Art University; 3: Tabriz Islamic Art University; 4: Research & Planning Center of Tehran Municipality  Presenting author: FARZAD BEHTASH, Mohammad Reza  farzad.behtash@gmail.com  Cities are complex and interdependent systems, extremely 124 vulnerable to threats from both natural hazards and terrorism. Urbanization is also a complex dynamic process playing out over multiple scales of space and time. Virtually all of the world’s future population growth is predicted to take place in cities and their urban landscapes – the UN estimates a global increase from the current 2.9 billion urban residents to a staggering 5.0 billion by 2030. Local resiliency with regard to disasters means that a locale is able to withstand an extreme natural event without suffering devastating losses, damage, diminished productivity, or quality of life and without a large amount of assistance from outside the community. Resilience is defined as “the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks”. Vulnerability is the flip side of resilience: when a social or ecological system loses resilience it becomes vulnerable to change that previously could be absorbed. For resilience, we need to start not with what’s missing but whit what’s already there. At this article is tried to determine different conceptual models and frameworks of resilient communities. We also compare these models and frameworks and consider their components and dimensions. Then, we consider social and cultural dimensions and components of resilience in these models and then define proper dimension of social and cultural resilience in Islamic Cities.  Keywords: Resilient cities, Disaster management, Vulnerability, Urban Areas, Islamic cities.  Vulnerability assessment of urban building stock: a hierarchic approach  FERREIRA, Tiago (1); VICENTE, Romeu (1); VARUM, Humberto (1); MENDES DA SILVA, J.A.R. (2); COSTA, Aníbal (1)  1: University of Aveiro, Portugal; 2: University of Coimbra, Portugal  Presenting author: VICENTE, Romeu  romvic@ua.pt  In the last decades the evaluation of the seismic risk, just as other natural phenomenon’s, are of rising concern, considered essential in the activity and definition of strategy planning and urban management. The evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of the existent building stock in the perspective of the seismic risk mitigation should not be placed only in relation to the isolated buildings of relevant historical and cultural importance, but also, in relation to the agglomerate of buildings in urban centres. The chronological construction process frequently results in characteristic heterogeneity of masonry and wall connection quality. In addition, buildings do not constitute independent units given that they share the mid-walls with adjacent buildings and the façade walls are aligned. This way, as post-seismic observations proved, buildings do not have an independent structural behaviour, but they interact amongst themselves, mainly for horizontal actions and so the structural performance should be studied at the level of the aggregate and not only for each isolated building. In most cases, for masonry structures there is no need for sophisticated dynamic analyses for seismic resistance verification or vulnerability assessment. This is even more relevant when an assessment at the level of a city centre is pursued. In this work, the results of evaluation of the vulnerability will be presented in accordance to three proposed methodologies based on a vulnerability index that consequently allows the evaluation of damage and creation of loss scenarios (economical and human) not only at the level of the building and its façade walls but also at the level of the aggregates. It will be discussed and evaluated the application of the referred methodologies and its integration in an SIG platform. of the preparation of trained personnel will be evaluated in a pilot study. The information from the pilot study will serve to validate the Curriculum and provide feedback. Keywords: rescue forces, education, catastrophes, terrorist attacks  The impact of uncertainties and risks on cooperation and conflict in transboundary water management  FISCHHENDLER, Itay  The effect of uncertainty and risk itself on cooperation between the partners sharing the natural resources remains unknown. Reasonable theoretical arguments can be put forward to suggest that risk may strengthen cooperation between partners, as cooperation is necessary to reduce the uncertainty, develop effective mitigation policies and infrastructure, and achieve economies of scale. Alternatively, risk may serve as a cause of friction between the different parties, since uncertainty, and the mechanisms available for dealing with it, may aggravate the asymmetries between the sides in terms of power, access to information, etc. Hence we examine whether risk and uncertainties in a transboundary setting promote or impede cooperation. Taking Arab-Israeli water agreements and subsequent negotiations as a case study, this work identifies which risk and uncertainties policymakers address collectively, which they address unilaterally, and which they do not address at all. We then evaluate their effect on potential conflict and cooperation.  Keywords: Seismic risk, vulnerability, aggregates, façade walls, damage scenarios  The DITAC Project - Development of a Disaster Training curriculum (DITAC)  FISCHER, Philipp  Department of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Germany  Presenting author: FISCHER, Philipp  Ph.Fischer@gmx.de  Establishing a curricular training on how to respond to an international crisis and making it accessible to pertinent organizations throughout the EU will be a first step towards building a European Emergency Response Centre. The DITAC Project will: • analyse concepts, methods, and doctrines of crisis response and identify the relevant European competences of crisis management, • analyse existing initiatives to generate curricula for crisis management, • identify the requirements of the local actors in crisis management education, • identify the needs of relevant actors and the resulting stakeholder requirements for significant improvement of trainings in international disaster response and crisis management, • develop a didactic concept to transmit common standards for crisis management education, using state of the art methods for teaching and training, • organise a pilot study course for suitable participants from European countries, • develop an evaluation tool for the course. The DITAC Project proposes to develop a holistic Training Curriculum for first responders and strategic crisis managers dealing with international crises. The DITAC Curriculum will address the key challenges for the management of disaster incidents. The Curriculum will improve the preparedness and availability of trained personnel by providing a common language, common objectives and common tools leading to better results in the protection and assistance of people confronted with large-scale crises. The DITAC Project will use open sources for dissemination during the project period in order to get continuous feedbacks, and will organise public meetings and congresses to reach a consensus about the Curriculum’s content. The improvement  hebrew university, Israel, State of  Presenting author: FISCHHENDLER, Itay  fishi@mscc.huji.ac.il It seems that social uncertainties and risks around interpretation of existing data dominates the water negotiations rather then technical or physical risks and uncertainties around the need to generate new knowledge. The risks are often situated outside the water ream and tend to detrimentally affect the chances to solve water issues. Most of the indicators used to assess the affect of risk indicatives that although partners often address uncertainties in a cooperative manner, the mechanisms used to address them tend to become a focal point for frication. Many of these mechanisms are procedural rather then clear and defined rules or outcomes. This openend approach creates its own risks as if and how they will be able to clarify the uncertainties remains unknown. Keywords: water, risk, conflicts  Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX project  FLEMING, Kevin Michael  German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: FLEMING, Kevin Michael  kevin@gfz-potsdam.de  Although many parts of Europe are under threat from a variety of natural hazards, scientists, engineers and civil protection and disaster management authorities usually treat them and the resulting consequences individually. This is despite the frequent spatial and temporal interactions between them, leading to scenarios where the total negative consequences may be greater than the sum of their parts. In addition, there is the range of spatial and temporal scales that natural hazards 125 Oral presentations on the better understanding of these socio-linguistic factors. Until now, the importance of such socio-linguistic factors has not been analyzed sufficiently enough in risk communication research. This presentation aims to explore socio-linguistic factors as influences on risk communication and highlight the importance of a more in-depth analysis of such factors for a more effective and citizen oriented risk communication.  A preliminary study of flash flood in Hunan Province, China - spatio-temporal characteristics, trends and risk management  FANG, Jian; DU, Juan; XU, Wei; SHI, Peijun IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • occur over, while at the same time being affected by different sources of uncertainty. As a consequence of these issues, the European Union under its FP7 program is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry. MATRIX is endeavouring to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and the resulting risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work is proceeding from an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, examining cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, a series of test cases (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies) and the development of an IT platform that will allow the methods developed to be evaluated against multi-type scenarios inferred for the test cases, and a generic tool for sensitivity studies. The project is also interacting with national and international platforms for disaster reduction to disseminate its findings and to gain insight to the needs of potential end users. MATRIX began in October, 2010, and will continue until September, 2013.  Risk engineering decision tools for risk management support  FORTE, Marcello; SALVADOR, Emanuele  AXA Matrix Risk Consultants, Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: FORTE, Marcello  marcello.forte@axa-matrixrc.com  The article introduces two methodologies with associated tools, expressly developed by AXA MATRIX to support Risk Managers in the visualization and monitoring processes of industrial plants risks. These tools allow conducting impact of investments for risk mitigation, thus achieving measurable targets and KPI’s in terms of risk level reduction. The tools described in the article are the ISORISKTM, a risk mapping methodology of a given number of assessed plants, and CITRANTM (Critical Investment To Reach Acceptable Normal Loss Expectancy), for the display of the impact of investments on the protection/ prevention risk level for each plant. ISORISKTM allows highlighting both the maximum exposure (peak risk) and the harmful events occurrence probability (“Vulnerability”). The methodology is based both on Vulnerability assessment (evaluation of the likelihood that some harmful events may occur) and Severity assessment (quantification of loss expectancy taking into account existing means of prevention and protection). CITRANTM curves allow both to highlight the recommendations needed to reduce the highest exposures to set levels (and their relative cost) and their impact on global risk value. By combining these tools, the article shows how it is possible both to quantify the risk level related to a population of sites, to 126 IDRC DAVOS 2012 simulate different investments impact and to set quantifiable objectives and KPI’s in terms of risk level reduction. An application concerning the previous cited methodologies is also illustrated in the article. In particular, costs benefits of both ISORISKTM mapping and CITRANTM curves deriving from specific recommendation implementation will be outlined. The development of new means of communication and synthesis, outlined in the article, underlines on one hand how much it is important to use qualitative tools for different risks analysis and, on the other one, the need for new synthesis and reporting methods for the risk management process.  Natural disaster mitigation and earth observations: a Group on Earth Observations perspective.  GAETANI, Francesco; CRIPE, Douglas  GEO Group on Earth Observations, Switzerland  Presenting author: GAETANI, Francesco  fgaetani@geosec.org   The presentation will provide an overview of key drivers as well as technical and scientific trends in the Societal Benefit Areas of Disasters and Water (including Flood and Droughts) of the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS), being developed by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). Specific emphasis will be given to the role of Earth observations (EO) in achieving the related GEOSS Strategic targets, through activities of the GEO 2012-2015 Work Plan. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) can be achieved if science is successful in providing society with clear and detailed information on the potential risk it is facing. In fact, objective and reliable information on hazards, vulnerability and exposure, presented through an analysis of expected impacts for given Risk Scenarios, is instrumental for triggering and, more importantly, sustaining the political will and economic strength needed to achieve adaptation and mitigation. In this framework, EO have the powerful capacity to represent and describe complex dynamics and processes by means of detailed, objective and up to date risk assessment maps. Additionally, EO have an important role to play in supporting the scientific community through the development of largearea (seismic, landslides, flooding, and wildfire) vulnerability modeling and mapping. A further key role of EO is in dynamic risk assessment, especially when properly assimilated in mathematical models or systems, which can in turn be used to feed the Early Warning operational chain. Finally, in real-time emergency and response phases EO from geostationary and low earth orbit satellites can be coupled with meteorological forecasts and observations to track/monitor events, measure or evaluate their magnitude and expected impacts and, most importantly, define meaningful and near real time event Scenarios, which can support decision makers in managing resources and organizing emergency plans.  Keywords: Earth Observations, meteorological models, risk assessment, global coordination, data sharing  Building a global exposure database  GAMBA, Paolo (1); CROWLEY, Helen (2); KELLER, Nicole (2)  1: Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell'Informazione, University of Pavia, Italy; 2: GEM Foundation, Italy  Presenting author: KELLER, Nicole  nicole.keller@globalquakemodel.org  The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a global collaborative effort to provide organisations and people with open tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. Leading science is leveraged for the benefit of society; hundreds of individuals and organisations are working together through global projects and regional programmes to develop open-source tools, global datasets and best practices that follow the state-of-the-art in science on seismic hazard and risk. All contributions are integrated into a comprehensive platform (OpenQuake) that will become available in 2014. High-resolution and standardized exposure data is key to quantifying risk. One of the global projects that is currently carried out focuses on development of a global exposure database (GED); an open unified database that contains the data needed to estimate damage to buildings, (critical) infrastructure and human casualties, and for cost-benefit and other analyses that support decisions on risk mitigation, such as building retrofitting. To ensure that data can be used for risk assessment in the same manner around the globe, the GED4GEM consortium develops best practices for creation of exposure datasets. To account for regional variability, they do so in interaction with experts worldwide. By harmonizing the best public exposure datasets, the consortium is putting together a first comprehensive global dataset of building stock and population. Organisations and individuals worldwide will be able to view and explore the GED in a GIS-environment; use subsets of it for own analyses and submit data to collaboratively enhance it. Using the best practices proposed by GED4GEM, another consortium is developing tools to capture new data on individual buildings and from remote sensing. New datasets at various scales can furthermore be integrated into the GED, following clear guidelines. Through these processes of crowdsourcing and continuous updating, users worldwide will be able to carry out risk analyses with increasing accuracy.  A resilience based analysis framework for critical infrastructures protection  GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios; FILIPPINI, Roberto  Joint Research Centre, Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: GIANNOPOULOS, Georgios  Georgios.giannopoulos@jrc.ec.europa.eu  Critical Infrastructures are essential for supporting everyday functions of modern societies. These functions depend on an extensive network of infrastructures that nowadays are highly connected, forming a complex mesh of interdependencies which facilitate exchange of services of various forms. The benefits from networking are accompanied by new threats and risks. In particular, disruptions in certain infrastructures can cause rippling effects that may render unstable the whole network. The issue of preserving and protecting infrastructures is a priority for modern societies and economies. In the last decade, Critical Infrastructure Protection has been at the spotlight of European policies. Several initiatives have been undertaken within the framework of the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP), the multi annual program elaborated in 2006 by European Commission. The legislative instrument of EPCIP is the European Council Directive 2008/114/EC on the identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructure (ECI) and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Within this framework JRC has a central role to provide technical support to the policy makers (Commission DGs). Proposing an analysis framework for ECIs, with the objective of providing tools primarily for decision makers and CI operators is clearly a task that clearly fits to the role of JRC.  Harmonization of seismic hazard assessment: the SHARE example  GIARDINI, Domenico  eth Zurich, Switzerland  Presenting author: GIARDINI, Domenico  giardini@sed.ethz.ch  Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Several large scale projects have been launched aiming to harmonize PSHA standards around the globe. The EC-FP7 project SHARE (www.share-eu.org) released a communitybased probabilistic time-independent hazard model for the Euro- Mediterranean region in 2012 and contributes its results to the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www. globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECDGSF. SHARE inherited knowledge from national, regional and site-specific PSHAs and strived to harmonize data and process across the whole Europe, introducing new various novel procedures, which build the new SHA reference: i) the new historical and instrumental seismic catalogue stems from a consensus approach; ii) a single database of active faults has been constructed merging the national contributions with rigorous common standards, established by the GEM Faulted Earth global project; iii) state-of-the-art approaches to assess sources of uncertainties were introduced in building the model logic-tree, including area-source, kernel-smoothed seismicity, fault-based and hybrid approaches; iv) the design of the GMPE logic-tree was achieved for the first time by a rigorous process of expert elicitation, using standards developed in the nuclear industry; v) the SHARE-PSHA comprises results for various return periods of engineering interest and various ground motion intensity measures (PGA, spectral accelerations at various periods) as well as uniform hazard spectra and disaggregation results for key locations; vi) a standardized computational framework has been established with GEM, to allow tracking and reproducing of all SHA steps and results. SHARE is a procedural example on how to perform a regional scale PSHA addressing diverse demands from the general public, seismologists, engineers and decision makers. 127 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  •  RAPID-N: A tool for mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes  GIRGIN, Serkan (1); KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (2)  1: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; 2: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy  Presenting author: KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth  elisabeth.krausmann@jrc.ec.europa.eu  Major accidents at industrial facilities triggered by natural hazards (natechs) are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. However, methodologies and tools to assess natech risks are still limited in many aspects. Recent EU and OECD-wide surveys have shown that hardly any natech risk maps, which identify natech-prone areas and show the associated risk, exist in the Member States. In order to bridge this gap, a study was launched to develop a unified natech riskmapping methodology. As a first step, a probabilistic natech risk-mapping methodology was envisaged for earthquakes and was implemented as a software tool called RAPID-N. RAPID-N is a web-based, open, and collaborative application allowing rapid natech risk assessment and mapping with minimum data input. It uses fragility curves for natural hazard damage estimation and utilizes simple models for consequence analysis based on natech event scenarios. In order to minimize data requirements the tools has an advanced data estimation framework to calculate on-site hazard parameters and site, process equipment, and hazardous substance properties. The tool also monitors on-line earthquake catalogs and provides an up-to-date earthquake database with source and on-site hazard parameters to be used for natech risk assessment. A basic set of fragility curves from the literature is supplied for the damage assessment. User-defined damage states and fragility curves are also supported for different types of process equipment. Conditional and probabilistic relationships can be specified between damage states and probable natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using the Risk Management Program methodology of US EPA. The results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps. RAPID-N can be used by authorities for land-use and emergency-planning purposes by using scenario earthquakes. It can also be utilized for rapid natech related damage estimation following actual earthquakes.  The Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD): announcing a new dataset  GIROUX, Jennnifer (1); BURGHERR, Peter (2)  1: Center Security Studies (CSS) / ETH Zurich; 2: Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)  Presenting author: GIROUX, Jennnifer  giroux@sipo.gess.ethz.ch  This presentation will provide an overview of the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD) - an open-source resource developed by the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) that structures data on reported (criminal and political) global attacks to energy infrastructure (EI) since 1980, by non-state actors. The development of EIAD was inspired by a knowledge deficit in this area where extensive empirical analysis and scenario modeling was lagging behind due to the lack of specialized, publicly available databases with detailed coverage of nonstate threats to EI. In fact, most non-commercial databases dealing with non-state threats tend to focus exclusively on terrorist attacks, however today’s violent non-state actors are 128 IDRC DAVOS 2012 fluid and oftentimes toggles between different motivational spaces which are then overlooked by such specific databases. To fill this research gap we adopted a data-based approach to structure information on threats to EI and in doing so answered some general yet important questions, such as: In what regions/states is EI targeted? In regions where EI is targeted, what are the causes? What tactics, techniques, and weapons are used and how are they composed? What are the impacts of attacks (local and global)? In addition to answering these questions by providing a summary of EIAD's key findings and overarching trends we will also discuss the coding methodology and development.  Keywords: energy security, critical infrastructure, emerging risks  The impact on the public of preventive information about risks  GLATRON, Sandrine  CNRS (National center for scientific research), France  Presenting author: GLATRON, Sandrine  sandrine.glatron@live-cnrs.unistra.fr  The European legislation assumes that preventive information campaigns should contribute to reduce the potential damages of disasters and to make the risks acceptable for the population. Information about risks and preventive measures to be adopted is one of the key elements in the management of hazard-prone areas, aiming at reducing the potential effects of disasters among population. Therefore, the impact of this information needs to be assessed regularly. Though the question is not new, we still have to worry about this impact as it is not proved that preventive information is able to be of some help whenever a disaster occurs. Thus, several natural and technological examples in France pointed out information is not well known or implemented by the public, especially after a catastrophic event. Several surveys were carried out in Mulhouse (Alsace), Sicily (Italy) and La Réunion (France d’outremer) during the last decade; confirming many scientific outcomes, they brought out that preventive information is insufficiently and inappropriately diffused, badly reminded, and that public authorities in charge of the diffusion are neither trustworthy nor legitimate. This situation becomes a real problem in a society which tends to render individuals responsible for reducing their exposure to risk. But it should and could probably be solved by several pro-active measures like persuasive and binding communication.  Keywords: preventive information, risk perception, France and Italy, natural hazard, technological risks  Prevention of major accidents in road transportation of dangerous goods  GLOOR, Adrian Robert  ASTRA, Switzerland  Presenting author: GLOOR, Adrian Robert  adrian.gloor@astra.admin.ch  As within the EU by the Seveso Directive, the protection of the public and the environment from serious damage in Switzerland is based on the directive on the prevention of major accidents. Unlike the EU, the Swiss legislation also includes transportation of dangerous goods on traffic routes (railways, roads, marine). Aside from companies handling hazardous materials the Swiss regulation thus requires in particular also owners of traffic routes, which serve the transport of dangerous goods to investigate the possi-ble risks and to take all safety measures that are appropriate to reduce the risks. Road owners, such as FEDRO, apply a two-stage investigation process. The first step considers the probability of a possible event on the basis of summary data on traffic- and road conditions and the environment of a section. The evaluation of the results is presented in the form of a probability-consequence chart, which is based on a set of typical standard scenarios covering fire-, explosion- and release of toxic gas events. It represents the risk situation in a semi quantitative manner. The first step indicates whether the identfied risks are acceptable or not; that means, whether the existing safety measures are sufficient to reduce the risks to a satisfactory level. If not, a second in-depth study is necessary, which includes the elaboration of a quantitative risk analysis taking in account all available data with the highest possible precision and substance-related dispersion models. If the second step confirms the estimated risks of the first study, further safety measures outside of the standard regulations for road buildings have to be developed and implemented. These studies have been applied by the FEDRO on the Swiss national roads; normally associated with the development and scheduled maintenance of road sections. In the presentation, the main results of the investigations will also be presented.  Keywords: risk road transportation dangerous goods  Insurance for the Rural Smallholder Farmer: Kilimo Salama  GOSLINGA, Rose  Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, Switzerland  Presenting author: GOSLINGA, Rose  rose.goslinga@syngenta.com  Weather-related risks like extreme or erratic rains, flood, and drought are some of the greatest challenges that rural smallholder farmers face. These farmers who have farms of five hectares or less in some of the most hard-to-reach parts of the globe are the most adversely affected by weather-related risks. They are also the most difficult to reach via traditional models of risk-management or insurance. The Kilimo Salama team recognized the unique challenge that this segment of the market posed and has built a product that specifically fills this need. Kilimo Salama’s use of technology is the key to our product’s affordability and the model’s scalability. Our 64,000 clients are farmers scattered throughout rural Kenya and Rwanda. By working through agro-vets as well as employing solar-powered weather stations and mobile payments we have dramatically reduced our administrative costs and can offer premiums that millions can finally afford. To reach these rural farmers we work with local agro-vets who sell inputs like seeds and fertilizer to surrounding farms. When a farmer purchases insurance, the agro-vet can register the purchase through a specially-developed mobile application by scanning a quick response code. At the end of each growing season our automated weather stations compare weather indices to the collected weather data, and calculate and send the insurance payout owed to client farmers via automated mobile payments. For example, a farmer can insure a bag of seeds costing the equivalent of $2 for about $.05. In case of a drought, instead of suffering a complete loss, he will receive a mobile payment equivalent to the $2 he paid for the seeds and can begin afresh at the next growing season. This presentation will outline the Kilimo Salama business model, as well as challenges we have faced in developing the product and bringing it to market.  Experiences of working for improving state of community based disaster preparedness in Mumbai city  GOVALE, Ajay R.  Program Director - United Way India Helpline - United Way of India & United Way Mumbai Helpline- United Way of Mumbai  Presenting author: GOVALE, Ajay R.  ajay@mumbaihelpline.org  This presentation will highlight the strategies for improving the level of resilience in urban communities based on the experiences gained in Mumbai city. United Way Mumbai Helpline (UWMH), a special initiative of United Way of Mumbai over the past 6 years has been striving to improve the state of community based disaster preparedness in Mumbai city through public private partnership initiatives. Interventions of UWMH focus on channelizing the disparate efforts of public and private stakeholders, creation of onground network of stakeholders equipped with know-how for disaster management and thereby complementing the government in disaster management. The key strategies include; firstly; Multi-Stakeholder Partnership wherein, key government and private stakeholders are engaged in process of disaster preparedness at local civic ward level, inter-agency interaction is facilitated for collective disaster response i.e. role identification, resource sharing and collaboration and capacity building of all the stakeholders by channelizing locally available expertise. Secondly; Bridging the gap between government and community by mobilizing community participation: information dissemination, preventive education, emergency communications, community mapping thorough community participation: anticipated threats, available resources and plans for matching them for disaster mitigation. Thirdly; Creating on-ground network of trained community volunteers: train various stakeholder groups: college youth, school & college teachers, citizens, corporate employees, government employees as First Responders and link them with local municipal officials. Fourthly; Community Resilience Indicators: UWMH actively contributed for developing indicators for assessing the level of community’s resilience and necessary actions under the initiative of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai. Fifthly; Post Disaster Recovery: Relief & Rehabilitation: Immediate relief and long-term rehabilitation of disaster victims for faster recovery through Coporate Partnerships. Thorough need assessment in consultation with government and local NGOs to avoid duplication and benefit right people. Thus, the learnings are useful for replication in other mega cities for creating a resilient world.  Keywords: Community participation, multi-stakeholder partnership, urban community resilience, disaster prevention, disaster mitigation, disaster recovery, community based disaster management, capacity building, community volunteers  Floating ecocities as a strategy to reduce the vulnerability of delta areas  GRAAF, Rutger De (1,2)  1: Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences, Netherlands, Kingdom of the; 2: DeltaSync, Delft, the Netherlands 129 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  •  Presenting author: GRAAF, Rutger De  rutger@deltasync.nl  Delta areas all over the world face multiple interconnected problems. They are increasingly threatened by flood damage, land subsidence, sea level rise, and extreme weather events. Another challenge is how to accommodate a huge increase in population while at the same time reducing the pressure of delta areas on the environment. Starting from a theoretical framework of vulnerability, this presentation demonstrates the concept of floating productive urbanization based on cyclic resource flows in vulnerable delta areas. A floating ecocity adapts to any future water level and can also be flexibly adapted to changing societal needs. The objective is to achieve a positive impact on the environment by using waste products of delta areas, and to create pleasant living conditions for involved and resilient communities. The presentation elaborates on the urban metabolism and the resilience of the floating ecocity. Moreover, various key governance, design and technical elements for the realization of floating ecocities will be presented.  A wind erosion case study in an alpine meadow (Davos, Switzerland) compared to wind tunnel experiments with live plants  GRAF, Frank  WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland  Presenting author: GRAF, Frank  graf@slf.ch  Today, it is generally accepted that the (re-)establishment of a protective vegetation cover is the most promising and efficient measure in restoring degraded land in the long term. Sustainable protection against wind erosion requires adequate information about suitable plant species regarding ecological aspects as well as with respect to their proper contribution to wind erosion control. The latter, however, is widely lacking. Within a broader conceptual framework, experiments were performed in the wind tunnel of the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, with the novelty of considering naturally grown vegetation covers. Furthermore, field measurements have been conducted on two test tracks in an alpine meadow (Davos, Switzerland). One track is representing the naturally alpine vegetated soil (1520% plant cover) and the other, sheet-covered, is mimicking desertified soil (0% plant cover) providing a direct link to the wind tunnel experiments that were performed with a plant cover of 0 and 16%, respectively. Compared to the unplanted soil, only small amounts of sand were transported from the vegetated plot, even during heavy wind events. Overall the ratio varied from 1:50 to 1:175 depending on the position of the measuring points. Qualitatively similar findings, however quantitatively less pronounced (1:15), resulted from the wind tunnel experiments. The remarkable difference between the field and wind tunnel study implies that the sheltering effect of vegetation under natural conditions is 3 to 12 times higher. However, this conclusion needs careful reflection. After all, the two studies differ in several aspects of their set-up. Correspondingly, the data are comprehensively discussed, with respect to meteorological, hydrological, and ecological aspects, particularly focused on symbiotic relationships between plants and mycorrhizal fungi and consequences in terms of their practical application.  Keywords: wind erosion, plants, mycorrhiza 130 IDRC DAVOS 2012  Preparedness of CBRNE incident management within the EU  GRAN, Hans-Christian  FFI, Norway  Presenting author: GRAN, Hans-Christian  hans-chritian.gran@ffi.no  Preparedness for CBRNE incident management is one of the most important areas of EU Security research today. Wide range of possible scenarios involving chemical, biological, radioactive/nuclear and explosive substances require technologically advanced preparedness tools and organizationally complex preparedness mechanisms. EU research in the area has therefore moved from capability projects towards integration and demonstration projects, aiming to integrate preparedness tools and procedures into functioning systems capable of responding to all sorts of CBRNE events. One such integration project is the PRACTICE Toolbox project, Preparedness and Resilience Against Terrorist Attacks using Integrated Concepts and Equipment. Briefly described, the PRACTICE project concept is to develop an architecture of event parameters and preparedness functions required to manage different aspects of CBRN incidents before, during and after a CBRN event. The architecture will be universal in nature and easily adaptable to connect to different national systems, pre-existing crisis management tools and opens to include newly developed technologies and procedures. In this way, PRACTICE Toolbox will remedy the existing fragmentation in Europe today and enable a truly integrated approach to CBRN preparedness. Whether we talk about tools for detection and identification of substances, forensics, victim management procedures, societal resilience development tools, training activities, decontamination tools, medical countermeasures procedures, et cetera; all conceivable preparedness and resilience functions needed in different EU societies will be connectable to a single integrated system approach developed by a European consortium and funded by EU Fp7 program.  The role of economics in making better sustainable flood risk management decisions  GREEN, Colin; VIAVATTENE, Christophe  Middlesex University, United Kingdom  Presenting author: GREEN, Colin  colin.green.fhrc@gmail.com  We now better understand that we are part of integrated, dynamic and complex systems (economic, social and environmental). We want to make progressively ‘better’ decisions that will take us on the path to sustainable development. In this context, hazards are shocks that have to be accommodated using the principles of resilience and adaptive management. Those shocks result in an immediate reduction in well-being and a hoped for recovery over the longer term. This is the context in which the economic analysis of floods is now situated where the purpose of economics is help the stakeholders understand how the shock of a flood propagates through the different systems, how recovery takes place, and the implications of intervening at different points in time and space. At the same time, it is necessary to recognise the current limitations of economics in addressing these questions. This was the challenge confronted in the European ConHaz project (www.conhaz.org ) and resulted in the recent guidelines for assessing the costs of floods. Rather than being supply driven, an economist’s analysis of flood risk management, these attempted to be demand driven: addressing the questions of what the stakeholders want to know, what they need to know, and how they want to know it.  Keywords: floods, sustainable development, complex system, decision, stakeholders  Mastering the ante in critical infrastructures – a Swiss approach to visualizing trends, realizing opportunities and defeating threats  GRUBER, Marco (1); DOERIG, Adolf (2)  1: Gruber Partner AG, Switzerland; 2: Doerig + Partner AG, Switzerland  Presenting author: GRUBER, Marco  marco.gruber@gruberpartner.ch  Critical infrastructures are networks and services in various areas: telecommunication and information services, energy services (electrical power, natural gas, oil and heat), water supply, transportation of people and goods, banking and financial services, government services and emergency services. Disasters always have serious effects on critical infrastructures, such as cutting populations off from clean water, power, transportation or emergency supplies. For the latter, groundbreaking initiatives such as “One Health” by GRF Davos helped greatly in developing awareness and a common understanding among public and private authorities around the world: for they have realized the imperative of protecting their critical infrastructures to increase public trust based on security, transparency and governance. The business case for further developing sustainable and successful initiatives with respect to critical infrastructures specifically depends on the knowledge and understanding of the relevant trends, scenarios, opportunities and threats within a welldefined governance framework. With that focus in mind, it’s becoming increasingly important to ask, to understand and to answer the following questions: (1) Are we aware of the trends in a world full of discontinuities – and how do we document them with respect to critical infrastructures? (2) Which scenarios are we taking into account – and how do we visualize them? (3) Do we know the strategic opportunities and threats in critical infrastructures – and how do we deal with them? (4) Do we have an appropriate governance structure in place – and how do we develop it even further? (5) How do we support and monitor the execution of the activities – and how do we communicate? Adolf J. Doerig and Dr. Marco Gruber will present best-practice cases with respect to trendfinding, opportunity and risk management, business continuity management and infrastructural development in the public and private sector of Switzerland.  Keywords: strategic trends, scenario building, opportunity and risk management, governance, success factors, framework  Risk, altruism and resilience in post-tsunami Indonesia: a gendered perspective  GUARNACCI, Ugo (1); DI GIROLAMO, Amalia (2)  1: University of Reading, United Kingdom; 2: University of Durham, United Kingdom  Presenting author: GUARNACCI, Ugo  u.guarnacci@pgr.reading.ac.uk  This paper aims to analyze whether or not risk attitudes and pro-social behaviour display systematic differences by gender in the context of disasters and the implications of this for community resilience. With such an aim, this research challenges the standard view of resilience in mainstream economics where the term is often used in a manner synonymous with the notion of “bouncing back” and it implies the capability to return to a previous state of equilibrium. This usage captures neither the reality of disaster experience nor its full implications. Thus, this paper is structured around the idea that the post-disaster recovery phase will present community members with a new reality that may differ in several fundamental ways from that prevailing pre-disaster. It is the changed reality (whether from the disaster itself or the societal response to it) that men and women must adapt to. By using a field experiment on gender behaviour in posttsunami Indonesia (Aceh and Nias), this paper argues that gender structures, reflected in gendered norms and practices, give rise to systematic gender differences in the perception of risk and altruism and provide an insight into resilience. In conclusion, the arguments about gender, risk perception and altruism are brought together in a theoretical model which might serve as a starting point to understand how women’s actual caring responsibilities and risk attitudes are relevant to foster a culture of resilience after disasters.  Keywords: risk, society and culture  Enhancing farmer’s resilience toward droughts: perspective from northwestern region of Bangladesh  HABIBA, Umma; SHAW, Rajib; TAKEUCHI, Yukiko  Kyoto University, Japan  Presenting author: HABIBA, Umma  shimuagri@yahoo.com  Bangladesh, an agro-based country that experiences drought more in recent years than earlier decades. Particularly, the northwest part of Bangladesh is severe drought-prone area than other parts of country because of high rainfall variability. The average annual rainfall of this area is 1,329 mm whereas the country’s average annual rainfall is 2,300 mm. This rainfall shortage accompanied with high temperature hastens drought severity of northwest region. As a consequence of drought, agriculture is badly affected that has significant impact on farmer’s livelihood. Farmers of this region performed various adaptation measures to cope with this insidious disaster by their own efforts along with institutional supports. But, these efforts and supports are not sufficient enough for farmers to endure towards drought. Therefore, this study assessed drought resilience through SIP approach (socio-economic, institutional and physical) at institutional level and also measured drought resilience at farmer’s level. This study also tries to develop drought adaptation action policies for increasing farmers’ resilience towards drought. To facilitate successful implementation of these actions, farmers’ level has been categorized into individual and family level as well as community level. At individual and family level, results reveal that crop diversification; mango cultivation and extension worker’s role could significantly increase farmers’ resilience. On the other hand, establishment of mango orchard, vegetable gardening and community health care service would be helpful for community level to enhance drought resilience. Important policy message from this study suggested that justification of these actions through GO, research institutes and other relevant organizations will 131 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: Drought, resilience, adaptation action, farmer, northwest Bangladesh  Early warning of glacial lake outburst floods and climate change monitoring in the Karakoram mountains, P.R. China  HAEMMIG, Christoph (1); KEUSEN, Hansrudolf (1); HESS, Josef (2)  1: Geotest AG, Switzerland; 2: Federal Office for the Environment, Executive Director LAINAT, Switzerland  Presenting author: HAEMMIG, Christoph  christoph.haemmig@geotest.ch  In the last decade, 5 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) damaged infrastructure and claimed human lives along Yarkant River, Xinjiang, P.R. China. The spontaneous floods are a threat for over 1 Mio inhabitants in the floodplains of Yarkant River and are causing an annual monetary loss of approx. 10 Mio Euro. Yarkant River drains the Karakoram Mountains with a catchment area of 50’248 km2 and ranks as number one in terms of flood frequency and damages in Xinjiang. The glacial outburst floods with peak discharges of up to 6’000 m3/s originate from a remote ice-dammed glacier lake at 4’750 m a.s.l. in the Shaksgam Valley, approx. 560 km upstream of the floodplains. There, the Kyagar Glacier snout blocks the riverbed. Hence, a lake with a volume over 200 Mio m3 has built-up in the past. Based on a memorandum of understanding between the Ministry of Water Resources of P.R. China (MWRC) and the Swiss Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC), it was decided to initiate a Sino-Swiss project to improve risk assessment and mitigation with respect to climate change, combining various technologies and knowhow. The project is supported by a cooperation between the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). Actions are structured into three phases: 1) establishment of an early warning system (EWS) for GLOFs; 2) risk management for the potential flood areas; 3) climate change monitoring. The automatic gauge and warning station is operational since autumn 2011. Both water level fluctuations and EWS functionality are continuously monitored. Because the volume of Kyagar glacier lake strongly depends on the thickness of its blocking ice-dam, mass-balance calculations are crucial. Such calculations and climate change monitoring are needed to define future hazard scenarios and to plan protection measures.  Keywords: Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, Early Warning System, remote sensing, climate change  Seven elements for capacity development for disaster risk reduction  HAGELSTEEN, Magnus (1,2); BECKER, Per (1,2)  1: LUCRAM, Lund University, Sweden; 2: Training Regions Research Centre, Lund University, Sweden  Presenting author: HAGELSTEEN, Magnus  magnus.hagelsteen@lucram.lu.se 132  Disasters are not evenly distributed in the world. Developing countries are bearing the brunt of the death and destruction, and the international community has identified capacity development for disaster risk reduction as a vital tool to substantially reduce disaster losses. However, not all capacity development projects have resulted in improved capacity for disaster risk reduction in the intended countries. The purpose of this conference paper is to present a framework with seven requisite elements for effective capacity development for disaster risk reduction and give examples of its application: (1) Terminology – understanding key concepts as well as how other stakeholders understand them. (2) Local context – understanding the basic political and institutional, social and cultural, physical and environmental, and economic context of the project, including who are its stakeholders. (3) Ownership – ensuring local stakeholders having ownership over the capacity development process. (4) Capacity assessment – understanding risks and the current capacities available for disaster risk reduction, and determining commonly accepted capacity development objectives among stakeholders. (5) Roles and responsibilities – ensuring local stakeholders to assume leading roles and external stakeholders to assume supporting and coaching roles, and that all stakeholders understand this division. (6) Mix of activities – addressing capacity development needs in a systematic and holistic manner, acknowledging dependencies between stakeholders, sectors, levels, etc. (7) Monitoring, evaluation and learning – ensuring continuous monitoring and timely evaluation of the actual effects of capacity development projects and their activities, and use these inputs for learning. These seven elements have proven useful as a framework for analysing stakeholders’ notions of capacity development for disaster risk reduction, for gap analysis and evaluation of existing capacity development projects, and may be used to inform the design of future capacity development projects.  Keywords: Capacity development, Capacity building, Disaster risk reduction, Risk, Disaster  Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) – a strategic Swedish initiative for disaster risk reduction  HALLDIN, Sven (1,2); BYNANDER, Fredrik (1,3)  1: Centre for Natural Disaster Science, Sweden, Kingdom of; 2: Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden; 3: Swedish National Defence College  Presenting author: HALLDIN, Sven  sven.halldin@hyd.uu.se  Infrastructures of advanced societies become more complex and the costs of natural disasters grow. The complex interrelationships constituting a natural disaster can effectively be studied only by integrating the scientific understanding of nature, the functional foundations of society and the technology that connects the two. The Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) is a Swedish Government strategic research initiative set out to accomplish exactly this. CNDS recognises the most significant research gaps to be interdisciplinary cohesion and that decisions are taken that don’t reflect scientific knowledge. These problems are approached by bringing carefully recruited young scientist together in the beginning of their careers with clear objectives of creating problem-focused interdisciplinary research projects. The core of the programme is a tandem of cooperating research schools catering to a Swedish and a Central American group of PhD students. It recognises a collective responsibility to devise and develop research problems on (1) design and effective use of early-warning systems, (2) design of systems for decision support, effective collaboration and crisis communication, and (3) integration of data, information and expert knowledge in processes of evaluation and change. CNDS aims at increasing the understanding of the inter-woven societal, scientific and technical processes involved in natural disasters. This knowledge will allow risk reduction through improvement of society’s capacity to prevent, manage and recover from disasters. The research will be carried out in an international context while collaborating with Swedish industry and authorities. It aims at developing communication tools for warning, decision, and other support systems in naturaldisaster management as well as developing infrastructure that is robust in case of natural disasters, e.g., autonomous, secure, and robust energy generation, as well as information and communication technology.  Keywords: Research school, natural disasters, disaster risk reduction, interdisciplinary research, resilience, vulnerability  Enhancing urban resilience to extreme waters: The WASH and RESCUE Initiative  HAN, Guoyi (1); JOHANNESSEN, Åse (1); PÅLSSON, Anders (2); ROSEMARIN, Arno (1); RUBEN, Cecilia (1); STENSTRÖM, Thor Axel (1); SWARTLING, Åsa (1)  1: Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, Kingdom of; 2: Kristianstad City, Sweden  Presenting author: HAN, Guoyi  guoyi.han@sei-international.org  Human beings today are increasingly urbanites. At the same time, human health and security in urban areas are increasingly under threat from extreme water conditions (e.g. floods and droughts) that are projected to become much more frequent with changing climate. One of the major challenge areas for adapting our growing cities to the extreme climatic variations is the sectoral and fragmented approaches through which cities are planned and developed. To a large extent, it seems that the cross-scale linkages are neglected, and the disjuncture between knowledge and action remains a major barrier for genuine progress toward resilient cities. The WASH and RESCUE Initiative (WAter, Sanitation and Hygiene in RESilient Cities and Urban areas adapting to Extreme waters) is a response to the above challenges. Funded by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency and implemented by the Stockholm Environment Institute with partners around the world, the research initiative aims to assess risks in urban context with focus on water, sanitation, and human health, developing preventative actions to enhance adaptive capacity through social learning. The project will examine multiple scales – river basin, city, and technical systems – interactions in various social, ecological and cultural contexts through case studies guided by a resilience perspective. The key impact areas targeted by the initiative are 1) understanding risk, with focus on assessment approaches integrating the water, sanitation, hygiene and health aspects; 2) dealing with and reducing risk, with focus on the available preventative measures and actions; and 3) bridging knowledge to action through social learning. This presentation will first elaborate and seek feedback on the conceptual framework developed within the project to guide the case studies from around the world, followed by some preliminary results from a case study of the Kristianstad City of Sweden, one of the frontrunners in urban adaptive management and flood risk reduction.  Keywords: Extreme waters, resilient cities, water, sanitation, health risks, social learning, adaptive strategies  Making and unmaking human security: the limits of state power in reducing risk and creating resilience  HANDMER, John; MCLENNAN, Blythe  RMIT University, Australia  Presenting author: HANDMER, John  john.handmer@rmit.edu.au  In an era of global economic, business, political and cultural forces, the role and power of national governments can seem unclear. It is often argued that the global rich should, on the grounds of equity, support the global poor in adaptation to climate triggered disasters, and that this should be done through international institutions. Put another way this is about the reduction of vulnerability to disasters among those who are currently most vulnerable. Although this idea has long been promoted, progress internationally has been very limited. However, the European Union has shown on a regional scale what is possible. In large measure this was because the Union gave human security explicit priority over state security. The constituents of human security are also those that reduce vulnerability to natural phenomena and promote resilience to most sources of social stress. The major challenge facing Europe now, and that facing much of the world, is how to avoid losing the gains in human security and resilience - while also supporting improvement in poorer countries. This presentation argues that promotion of human security, in particular through developing food, water, livelihood and health security, should be the emphasis for both adaptation and disaster risk reduction. An overarching question concerns the power and role of government in this task, and the tensions that have to be negotiated. Some recent influential international and national publications that set out very different approaches are used to illustrate the issues.  Keywords: Risk, Society, Culture  World Health Organization: health security preparedness  HARPER, David Ross  World Health Organization, Switzerland  Presenting author: HARPER, David Ross  harperd@who.int  The world faces increasingly complex and unpredictable public health emergencies arising from known and unknown origins or sources: infectious disease outbreaks; diseases related to unsafe food and water; environmental hazards including chemicals and radiation; humanitarian disasters, natural or man-made; and the health consequences of climate change. All are compounded by increasing population pressures, and all countries are at risk because any public 133 Oral presentations facilitate to develop the suitable drought adaptation action policy for this region. Accordingly, it would be effective for farmers as well as communities of this region to sustain their livelihood against droughts by practicing these actions from national to local level. IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • health system can potentially be overwhelmed. The most efficient, effective and sustainable way to reduce public health risk is to implement a broad risk management approach, which involves preparing society at all levels (local, national, and international) to prevent an emergency from occurring, if this can be done, or to respond to the emergency, whatever the cause, mitigate its impact and recover from its effects. This approach requires multi-sectoral, all-hazards preparedness, and means that countries and the WHO secretariat have to have the policies, competencies, capacities, plans and practices in place for its proper implementation. In advancing this approach to preparedness, the WHO stresses the need for: (1) clarity - on the evidence and tools that are available, on who is doing what, and on roles and responsibilities; (2) accessible information; (3) followthrough on implementation of the essential foundations, for example the International Health Regulations, the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework, the Hyogo Framework, and many other important initiatives; and (4) assistance for countries in becoming better prepared. We propose the development of a ‘One-stop shop’ for countries spanning the entire spectrum of public health emergencies from infectious diseases to humanitarian disasters.  Have we finally found the elusive "Higgs Boson" particle of disaster risk Reduction?  HAYS, Walter West  Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction  Presenting author: HAYS, Walter West  walter_hays@msn.com  This presentation is a summary of an ongoing critical review of the notable global disasters of my generation as a professional (40 years), which indicates that the probabilistic answer to the question raised in the title is 0.9. The answer, which can be expressed in two words and in terms of “eight laws of enlightenment,” was in front of the eyes of the world’s professionals the entire 40 years. Never more so than in the past decade when there has been a significant increase in the numbers of communities, urban areas, and nations that have been stricken by natural disasters and catastrophes. The answer lies on our ability to make these social constructs resilient to the potential disaster agents of the disaster-causing event (e.g., a flood, an earthquake, a severe windstorm, or a volcanic eruption).  Keywords: Global disasters, Integrative Disaster Risk Management  The Emergency Support System - ESS: Concept and technology  HAZZANI, Gideon  VERINT, Israel  Presenting author: HAZZANI, Gideon  Gideon.Hazzani@verint.com  An abnormal event can be defined as a sudden change or cumulative changes in one or several mediums which it interacts with (Telecom, Air, Spatial, Acoustic, Visual & more). The effective control of abnormal events means: monitoring each medium independently in real-time, activating an alarm when sudden or cumulative changes 134 IDRC DAVOS 2012 in one or more mediums are detected, and when necessary contacting the affected population and supporting mass evacuation capabilities. The ESS project is an integrated web-based ICT platform which includes several data gathering components deployed in the incident scene and a revolutionary crisis communication system that reliably transmit filtered and pre-organized data streams to the crisis command center. Fusion of data from a variety of sources for generating intelligent information and creating a reliable Common Operational Picture (COP) can support critical decisions and improve the efficiency of crisis management operations. The information streams in ESS are organized in a way that they can be easily enhanced by and combined with other available applications and databases (thus enabling the coupling of the ESS system with crisis decision support systems currently under development). The ESS provides web-based access to information originated from several sources. Cooperation between systems and applications is obtained using open interfaces (API) which fact allows public authorities to add to the system more applications customized to their particular needs. ESS data, functionalities and data flow are based on ISO, INSPIRE and OGC standards. Any commercial application adopting these standards will be able to connect to ESS in the future. The ESS prototype integrates existing ground and aerial platforms for data collection, GIS and location based services (including traffic management and control), risk assessment applications, information broadcasting and group messaging platforms, lawful interception solutions, 3D visualization tools etc.  Social vulnerability to natural hazards in China  HE, Shuai; YANG, Saini; YE, Jiayuan  State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China  Presenting author: HE, Shuai  heshuai@mail.bnu.edu.cn  Since last century, together with the significant increment of exposures and natural hazards intensity and frequency, the losses from natural disasters increased dramatically. China has experienced huge changes in social fabrics during the past few decades, especially in population density, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These changes might have exposed people and society to higher risk. It is important to recognize the regional vulnerability exposed to natural hazards in order to help decision making for disaster reduction planning and risk management. For the purpose of getting the spatial distributions of social vulnerability in China, large amounts of social-econ data in the past 2 decades are collected. Based on the provincial socioeconomic and demographic data, specific variables which can construct an index of social vulnerability to natural hazards are selected from mass data by using the principal component analysis and varimax rotation. Using the index of social vulnerability scores, the geographic patterns of social vulnerability for each year can be obtained. Compared with the spatial distribution patterns of disaster loss, the spatial patterns of social vulnerability to natural hazards and the index of social vulnerability are verified. Due to the complexity of social vulnerability, this paper presents empirical evidence of the social vulnerability’s temporal and spatial patterns in recent 2 decades. We calculate the indicators of spatial autocorrelation to capture the local development modes and examine spatial effects. By analyzing the spatial and temporal changes of social vulnerability, the major components which influence social vulnerability are discussed.  Keywords: social vulnerability; index; temporal and spatial patterns; natural hazards  A framework for sustainable natural hazard management  HEDELIN, Beatrice  Karlstad university, Sweden, Kingdom of  Presenting author: HEDELIN, Beatrice  beatrice.hedelin@kau.se  In order to manage natural hazards in a more sustainable and integrated manner, new planning and decision-making procedures for natural hazard prevention need to be developed. In this presentation a set of useable normative criteria for the analysis and evaluation of such procedures are described. The criteria were designed as a response to the lack of deductive approaches in the evaluation of methodologies and working procedures used in the context of natural hazards, making it possible to highlight their potential for sustainable development. The criteria are based on the twin concepts of participation and integration. These concepts function as well-established dimensions of both sustainable development and sustainable natural hazard management, and they are of significant methodological relevance. The criteria were derived through a broad literature review and synthesis, complemented by interviews with key researchers. They have been applied and tested within the area of regional river basin management, where they have shown to have great practical potential. The criteria are concerned with integration of knowledge and values into the planning process, with the generation of commitment, legitimacy or acceptance for the resulting plan, and with organizational aspects.  Keywords: Framework, Criteria, Sustainable development, Natural hazards, Preventive planning  Protection against muddy floods: perception of one protection system (fascines) for local actors in Alsace (France)  HEITZ, Carine (1); FLINOIS, Géraldine (1,2); GLATRON, Sandrine (2)  1: Irstea-GESTE, France; 2: LIVE-CNRS, France  Presenting author: GLATRON, Sandrine  sandrine.glatron@live-cnrs.unistra.fr  For several years, an increase of muddy floods frequency (and associated damages) is noticed in the Alsacian region (NE of France). In 2008, the regional authority ("Conseil Général") with the collaboration of the Chamber of Agriculture decided to set up, directly on farmlands, micro-structures called “fascines” (faggots of brushwood). These little protection systems allow to decrease the muddy floods velocity and to capture the sediments that are transported decreasing by this way the vulnerability in risk prone areas located downstream the catchment. These protections present two advantages: they are very easy and cheap to set up. In the region, we can list 400 fascines, step up in 21 municipalities exposed to the muddy floods risk. This study focuses on farmers' perception of these fascines in order to understand their potential acceptability of this kind of mitigation measure and to highly the main issues linked to the democratisation of these protective measures in the whole risk prone areas. The methodology used is a questionnaires (N=37) held among farmers in 5 municipalities exposed to muddy floods risk. The main results show that the fascines are perceived as a restrictive tool: the most of the farmers mentioned that their maintenance is more important than for other mitigation measures such as hedges, non-inversion tillage, grass strips,.... also proposed in the questionnaire. Moreover the "real" efficiency of the fascines against the muddy floods propagation is questioned by the farmers as well as their integration in the landscape. Among others, these results allow to highly the main restraints in the development of such mitigation measures and have been directly used by the Chamber of Agriculture in order to improve their information campaigns among the farmers to improve the use of the fascines in risk mitigation polices and risk prone areas planning.  Keywords: Risk mitigation, Perception, Surveys, Natural disasters  Low cost flood early warning systems based on linking local governments and communities in the Philippines  HERNANDO, Hilton (1); NEUSSNER, Olaf (2)  1: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration (PAGASA); 2: Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: HERNANDO, Hilton  prffwc_ffb@yahoo.com  Floods are one of the major natural hazards in the Philippines causing heavy damages and losses for municipalities and communities. Weather services monitor levels of major rivers and are able to warn of impending floods. However, such services are not available for minor rivers. One solution is the establishment of low cost community-based early warning systems. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration (PAGASA) is responsible for weather forecasts for the country, and flood forecasts and warnings only to major river systems using sophisticated and automated devices. Unfortunately, smaller flood-prone river catchments are not covered. The Binahaan River Local Flood Early Warning System (LFEWS) covers a small basin area where the local population is involved in the monitoring, transmission, as well as in the early warning chain during flood events. Support for the establishment of the system was provided by Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) in cooperation with PAGASA. It consists of rain and river level gauges, and an “operations centre (OC)” that process and analyze the data received into a warning message that is transmitted down to the community level. The system has an initial investment of 15,000 Euros with all running costs covered by the local 135 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • government. Cost-benefit analysis on return of investment is estimated in about a year’s time. Key to sustainability of an LFEWS is embedded in the empowerment of the flood prone community and its local government to act on their own during times of flood event and having a sense of ownership of the system. At present, eight rivers basins in Region 8 are equipped with LFEWS and eight more are planned for 2013 in other parts of the Philippines.  Emergency Support System - ESS : The web-portal  HERRERO, Jose  GMV, Spain  Presenting author: HERRERO, Jose  jherrero@gmv.com  The ESS system is backed by a web-based platform which ensures ubiquitous access to the data built and the information created using the systems components, modules and applications. The web portal is the heart of the ESS system since it serves the fusion of data and aggregation of information for creating the Common Operational Picture required by the operational users. The platform is designed in a modular way and consists of a number of modules and sub-modules which behave as autonomous elements that communicates with each other to provide the complete system. Suitable interfaces and web-services allow the user accessing external applications and collect relative information which is transparently integrated into the unique user interface of the web portal. The web portal has been designed with a Service-Oriented Mentality, where each piece of functionality is seen as a suite of interoperable services that can be used within multiple, separate systems. In that aspect, the portal acts as a kind of middleware, offering a set of web-services that can be used by external applications to retrieve the data they need to provide additional emergency management functionalities not covered in the portal. Thus the web portal allows ESS to operate as a modular and dynamic suite of emergency management components and applications integrated in a single ICT system. As part of the ESS prototype, a suite of several components for collecting data (cameras, sensors, cellular probes etc), risk and emergency management applications (weather monitoring, traffic monitoring, forest fire propagation, toxic cloud dispersion etc) and alert communication modules are integrated with the ESS portal, to illustrate the wide range of tools that could be supported by the system.  Investigating the performance of coastal ecosystems for hazard mitigation  HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L (1); SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman. P (1); RATNASOORIYA, Harsha (1); FERNANDO, Joe (2)  1: University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; 2: Universiy of Notre Dam, USA  Presenting author: HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L  sampens1955@hotmail.com  Indian Ocean coastlines offer a wide range of natural defences against wave action and currents. These include the offshore seabed, sand banks, coral reefs on which waves 136 IDRC DAVOS 2012 break, beaches, dune systems and coastal vegetation. Field investigations arising from the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004 highlighted that natural systems had the capacity to resist the impacts of extreme coastal hazards comprising high amplitude waves and strong currents, provided that threshold stability values of the natural systems were not exceeded. The improved performance of hybrid systems was also evident. The paper presents a classification of mitigation measures and describes investigations to assess the performance of coastal ecosystems for hazard mitigation. Firstly, it provides a classification of mitigation measures and focuses on critical issues relating to the performance of coral reefs, sand dunes and coastal vegetation for wave energy dissipation as observed from post tsunami surveys. The classification also provides a comparison with artificial measures thus providing the platform to develop effective hybrid solutions. It is important that such measures are incorporated within a multi-hazard coastal zone management framework giving due consideration to the magnitude and the frequency of occurrence of all hazards. Secondly, two case studies are presented on physical modeling of simulated coral reef systems and coastal vegetation, designed to assess and quantify the performance of important buffering aspects that were identified from the field surveys. Results are presented from each study. It is evident that natural defence systems can be effectively used either individually or via a hybrid approach for coastal hazard mitigation.  Keywords: Risk Assessment and Management,Mitigation Measures, Bio Shields,  Tsunami risk assessment and management - case studies from Sri Lanka  HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L; SAMARAWICKRAMA, Saman.P; WIJERATNE, Nimal  University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of  Presenting author: HETTIARACHCHI, Sam.S.L  sampens1955@hotmail.com  The island state of Sri Lanka was severely affected by the Indian Ocean Tsunami leading to the loss of life, damage to infrastructure and unique eco-systems. It was evident that some cities were severely affected by the tsunami in view of their increased exposure arising from coastline geometry. In particular cities located within bays and around headlands were subjected to extensive damage due to concentration of wave energy. This included principal coastal cities along the south and eastern coasts of Sri Lanka. For purpose of coastal rehabilitation, conservation and mitigation it was decided to conduct detailed risk assessment and management studies. The said studies were conducted within a multiple hazard framework to develop integrated risk management solutions, following the Tsunami Risk Assessment Guidelines produced by the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System. Arising from these studies measures were to be identified for (1) mitigating the tsunami hazard (reducing the impact of the tsunami wave); (2) reducing the exposure and vulnerability; (3) enhancing preparedness and evacuation; (4) improving community resilience. The paper presents a summary of the investigative studies conducted for Risk Assessment and Management along the coast of Sri Lanka and focusing in particular on the city of Galle. The paper will highlight the following: (1) Summary of the investigative studies carried for risk assessment; (2) approach adopted for risk assessment in the context of hazard (both deterministic and probabilistic hazard modeling), vulnerability and capacity; (3) application of risk management measures in the form of community preparedness, evacuation maps, evacuation zones and shelters; (4) mitigation measures with respect to coast conservation via bio-shields, artificial methods including the development of tsunami breakwaters as part of strategic port development; (5) the development of building codes for new construction, enhancing the strength of existing buildings and their field applications.  Keywords: Tsunami Hazard, Modelling, Risk Assessment and Mitigation Does environmental degradation lead the way out of Chuuk, FSM? Rebecca HOFMANN RCC, Munich  Presenting author: HOFMANN, Rebecca  hofmannbec@googlemail.com Pacific islands are physically vulnerable due to a high landcoastline proportion, limited resources and few alternatives which exposes low lying coral atolls as much as the steep volcanic islands to hydrological forces. Chuuk-State, FSM in the central Caroline Islands of Micronesia is comprised of several high volcanic islands (chuuk actually means mountain in the local language) inside one of the world’s largest lagoons as well as of various low lying atolls outside the main lagoon. Paired with an increasing demand for cash in an economy that largely relies on natural resources, this physical setting leaves the islands highly sensitive to the effects of human and natural interaction with the environment, such as subsistence activities, for-profit resource extraction, tertiary sector activities, etc., but also to natural calamities such as typhoons, floods and droughts whilst hardly offering sufficient adaptation possibilities or alternatives. The diverging conditions, however, often result in one single action: movement. While education, jobs and health are generally understood to be the three major drivers of migration, environmental factors are often underlying and accompanying the decision-making process. The scope both of distance and time as well as the degree to which environmental issues generate such migrations vary and have to be traced individually. This paper will give an overview of Chuuk’s movement dynamics throughout history, with examples from past and present as well as some prospects for the future, extracting the environmental factor of each case.  Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in Switzerland  HOLTHAUSEN, Niels (1); KÖLLNER-HECK, Pamela (2); BRÜNDL, Michael (3); LOCHER, Peter (1); PÜTZ, Marco (4); PERCH-NIELSEN, Sabine (1); BLASER, Lilian (1); PROBST, Thomas (2); HOHMANN, Roland (2)  1: Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; 2: Federal Office for the Environment, Switzerland; 3: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland; 4: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland  Presenting author: HOLTHAUSEN, Niels  niels.holthausen@ebp.ch  In Switzerland, an analysis of both risks and benefits of climate change is to provide a transparent basis for adaptation decision making on the national scale. To account for the strong regional differences (e.g. high mountains vs. lowlands), the analysis comprises a case study for each of six predefined regions. In this paper, we will present first results for the case study Aargovia. The approach focuses on the climate change impacts on the policy areas health, agriculture, forestry, buildings and infrastructure, water management, tourism, energy supply, biodiversity and open spaces. The expected impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation and wind are separated in related hazards and developments: from short and medium-term events (e.g. storms, heat waves) to long-term developments (e.g. rise of mean temperature). The risk analysis accounts for the annual variation of climate-related losses and benefits by the use of probability density functions (PDF) for quantifiable annual effects of each hazard on the relevant policy areas. These PDF enable an aggregation of monetized annual risks and benefits by Monte Carlo simulation for each of the policy areas and/or for each of the hazards considered. Qualitative information on climate change impacts and the degree of uncertainties in the quantitative estimates is considered in the interpretation of the results. We compare today’s risks with those projected into the future (2060). For that purpose we calculate the future risks using two different climate change scenarios and one socioeconomic and demographic scenario. This allows for a comparison of climate change impacts versus demographic, social and economic trends. For an aggregation of the case study results on a national scale, the case study results will suitably be scaled up. The results provide a valuable basis for the discussion of climate change adaptation priorities on a national scale among responsible administration units and stakeholders.  Keywords: climate change, risk analysis, adaptation, Switzerland  Analysis of evacuation system and resident's cognition on coastal disaster prevention  HONG, Sung Jin; PARK, Hyung Seong; KIM, Dong Seag  National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of  Presenting author: HONG, Sung Jin  hongsj95@korea.kr  The objective of this study is to investigate coastal disaster prevention system according to development of evacuation model considering resident's cognition in coastal inundation area. The system is possible to support administrative decision by effective selection of shelter and routes by using evacuation model. Coastal disasters have become one of the most important issues in every coastal country. In Korea, coastal related disasters such as storm surge, sea level rise and tsunami have placed many coastal regions in danger of being exposed or damaged during subsequent storms and gradual shoreline 137 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • retreat. However, it is very difficult to predict storm surge height, tsunami height and inundation due to irregularity of the course and intensity of a typhoon, tsunami and so on. Therefore, it is necessary that adequate evacuation system is prepared in accordance with formalities. A well-designed system for evacuations warning issues is essentially necessary to reduce human loss and damages. The contents of the present study are following: (i) Questionnaire is designed to be distributed at the time of evacuation drill, which provided us information to determine route selection, parameters and initial conditions of the evacuations. (ii) Numerical experiments using the potential model are applied to analyzing the evacuation situation in the study area. The results showed that strengthening the disaster information delivery system including quick and exact transmissions of disaster monitoring and adequate evacuation method is important to reduce casualties by coastal inundation. Detail results are following: (i) shelter building is necessary to be install in predicted coastal disaster area; (ii) easy accessibility is more important than the shortest route to shelter; (iii) active promotion and education plan are necessary to improve cognition about inundation through a survey; and (iv) provide a direction to improve the 'Guidelines on the designation of shelter and evacuation route for hazard mapping '.  Keywords: evacuation system, coastal disaster, numerical model, hazard mapping  Strengthening resilience at community level; linking up community DM with Government DM  HUERLIMANN, Maja  Caritas Switzerland  Presenting author: HUERLIMANN, Maja  mhuerlimann@caritas.ch  In Bangladesh Caritas started 2003 in DRR, developing mixed Volunteers to become proactive in disaster preparedness and emergency response at village level. But there was no link with Government DM structures. These are organized top down to the Union level. A Union includes 9 Wards and about 30'000 people. Ward elect their representative into the Union Council including a Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) is responsible for support and distribution of funds. Mostly they fail to link with the communities. 2008 Ward Disaster Management Committees (WDMC) were formed, including the Volunteers, local leaders and the elected member of the UDMC which creates the so far missing link. WDMCs are trained in assessing their hazards and natural risks, preparing, implementing and monitoring yearly activity plans. Being part of all those steps UDMC are well informed and Wards profit of UDMC motivation to make government resources available. The project does not finance infrastructure measures but coaches WDMCs if necessary. Wards develop own Funds for own DM activities not financed 138 IDRC DAVOS 2012 by the Government or other. Result: Independent grass root DM structures get knowledge about DM and the link to use available Government resources. Principles for resilience strengthening: (1) Build up self-reliant community DM structures before linking with Government DM. (2) Avoid infrastructure components subsidizing Governments responsibilities. (3) Involve local leaders and Government members in community DM structure Integrating UDMC members into WDMC is effective and helps professionalizing and sensitizing UDMCs. It has been important to build up a sense of professionalism, responsibility and responsiveness at community level before linking with UDMC. The challenge remains to scale up, integrating WDMC into Government structures while keeping the local initiative and ownership at community level.  Integrated assessment of high mountain hazards and related prevention strategies in the Peruvian Cordilleras  HUGGEL, Christian (1); HAEBERLI, Wilfried (1); PORTOCARRERO, César (2); COCHACHIN, Alejo (3); SCHNEIDER, Demian (1); ROHRER, Mario (4); GARCIA, Javier (5); SCHLEISS, Anton (5); SALZMANN, Nadine (1)  1: Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland; 2: CARE, Huaraz, Peru; 3: Unidad de Glaciología y Recursos Hídricos, Huaraz, Peru; 4: Meteodat GmbH, Zurich, Switzerland; 5: Laboratoire de constructions hydrauliques, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland  Presenting author: HAEBERLI, Wilfried  wilfried.haeberli@geo.uzh.ch  The ice-clad Peruvian Cordilleras are often and seriously affected by high mountain hazards such as ice and rock avalanches, glacier lake outbursts, floods and debris flows. In the past, thousands of people have been killed in such disasters. More recently in 2010, massive floods in the Cusco region and an outburst flood of glacier lake 513 triggered by the impact of a rock/ice avalanche in the Cordillera Blanca draw the attention of the public, policy and science. In the face of climate change there is strong concern that warming has a destabilizing effect on perennially frozen bedrock and on steep glaciers in high-mountain flanks, with potentially severe consequences when avalanches impact existing and new glacier lakes and far-reaching floods form. Related risks are changing and need to be managed integratively. The 2010 event at the Laguna 513 where structural measures were undertaken in the 1990s is an example of successful hazard prevention but the risk reduction was not to zero, and complementary measures are necessary. As a follow up of the Laguna 513 event and corresponding assessments by international experts, an integrative project was initiated, which combines three components to sustainably enhance climate change adaptation and reduce high-mountain risks in the Peruvian Cordilleras. (1) Monitoring and early warning systems for lake outburst floods and rain-triggered mass movements are implemented at two sites, integrating technical, social and institutional components. (2) Scientific and technical capacities are significantly strengthened by postgraduate courses and collaborative research projects with a consortium of Peruvian and Swiss universities in the field of glacier, permafrost and water resources in the context of climate change adaptation and risk reduction. (3) Finally, glaciology and high mountain research, and related adaptation and risk management are strengthened at the institutional level within Peru.  Keywords: high-mountains, climate change, glaciers, lakes, natural hazards, monitoring, early warning  Tsunami awareness in Bander Chabahar, south of Iran  IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. (1); ZAKER, Nasser H. (2); FAKHRI BAFGHI, Bibielham (2)  1: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran  Presenting author: IZADKHAH, Yasamin O.  izad@iiees.ac.ir  This paper presents the assessment and evaluation of the people's knowledge and awareness of tsunami disaster in city of Bandar Chabahar in southeast Iran. Bandar Chabahar is the largest coastal city of Iran in the Northern part of the Sea of Oman, adjacent to Makran Subduction Zone. Makran Subduction Zone is one of the most tsunamigenic sources in the Indian Ocean and historically has generated some tsunamigenic earthquakes such as 28 November 1945 with the death toll of more than 4000 people along the coasts of Iran, Pakistan, India, and Oman. Questionnaires were distributed to three various groups of respondents including: residents, school children and governmental officials. The data have been collected by field technique through simple random sampling. Data were also collected through face to face interviews and library studies. The results showed the lack of awareness and enough knowledge of the people in the region, especially women. However, among the people in the region, students had a higher level of knowledge and awareness about tsunami. In the meantime, the high level of public interest and concern to learn and acquire knowledge about tsunami were very noticeable. At the end, the results showed that the most effective methods that can be proposed for the public awareness in the study area include: teaching about disasters in schools is important, so that children can transfer the appropriate messages to their families; broadcasting educational programs about tsunamis and earthquakes through mass media; and disseminating community based programs through religious centers with regard to the cultural background of the region.  Keywords: Tsunami, Awareness, South of Iran, People's knowledge, Bandar Chabahar  OECD High Level Risk Forum and Framework for Disaster Risk Management  JACOBZONE, Stéphane  OECD  Presenting author: JACOBZONE, Stéphane  marc.stal@grforum.org  Based on its experience in supporting countries to adopt national risk assessments and strengthen their actions to make economies and societies more resilient to crises and disasters, OECD is developing a methodological framework intended to enhance disaster risk assessment and the development of sound risk financing strategies through tools demonstrating the interconnectivity of risks and prioritizing expenditures on prevention, mitigation, preparedness and financial compensation. The framework will emphasize the need of a “whole-of-government” approach to risk assessment based on improved access to data amongst countries to enable hazard and vulnerability analysis through measurement and quantification of past direct and indirect disaster losses, as well as of evolving hazards and risk exposures. OECD last year also launched the High Level Risk Forum to advance the international policy agenda for building resilience to large scale risks.  Keywords: framework, risk management strategies  Vulnerability analysis of women's health in natural disasters and proposed strategies for risk reduction  JAHANGIRI, Katayoun (2); IZADKHAH, Yasamin O. (1); SADIGHI, Jila (2)  1: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research (IHSR), Iran, Islamic Republic of  Presenting author: IZADKHAH, Yasamin O.  izad@iiees.ac.ir  Women are among the most vulnerable groups of society in natural disasters. In this regard, the aim of the present study is to identify the influential factors of women's vulnerability in natural disasters and proposing strategies to reduce the risk. This study has been conducted in Iran which consists of a narrative review and a qualitative study (focus group discussion) in order to determine the views of decision makers and to propose strategies for improving approaches to reduce women's vulnerability in disasters. The main findings of this study include: lack of women's presence especially in the responsible government agencies, lack of needs assessment regarding women in disaster situations, insufficient legal support of women, need for more credits to be allocated for women in disaster management issues, absence of enough female experts in field of disaster management, constant use of men as relief and rescuers without having women in the team, and lack of specialized centers to train women's relief and rescue efforts. The main strategies that could be suggested in this paper in order to reduce the vulnerability of women in disasters include: increasing public education, activating women's communication networks, reinforcing practical skills for women facing disasters, reinforcing women's NGOs for the purpose of forming its humanitarian activities in crisis prevention, legislation for supporting women, conducting appropriate research and present the results to relevant authorities, allocating roles for women in relevant organizations, defining special positions for women in the headquarter and dispatching teams in disaster regions, and training skills in all areas related to women's health especially in reproductive health in disasters and crisis situations.  Keywords: Women health, Vulnerability analysis, Disasters, Qualitative study  Integrated risk assessment tools for decision-making. A case study from landslide affected mountain areas in Central Nepal  JAQUET, Stephanie (1); SUDMEIER-RIEUX, Karen I (2); DERRON, Marc-Henri (3); JABOYEDOFF, Michel (3)  1: Global Risk Forum, GRF, Davos; 2: Independent, France; 3: University of Lausanne, Institute of Geomatics and Analysis of Risk  Presenting author: JAQUET, Stephanie 139 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  stephanie.jaquet@grforum.org  Policy makers, international donors and NGOs are seeking ways to improve decision making about what investments are needed to decrease risks facing vulnerable communities in mountain areas. There are however a multitude of both risk and vulnerability assessments designed to meet different objectives, depending on whether undertaken from a social science or natural science perspective. Participatory approaches to assessing and mapping vulnerability and risk have become more common yet may not always be accepted as a rigorous tools for decision making. This research was designed to fill this research gap by focusing on landslideaffected communities in Eastern Nepal, increasingly affected by shallow landslides greatly affecting rural lives and livelihoods. The objective of this interdisciplinary research was to provide a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs and local authorities to assess community vulnerability and risk in order to reduce losses from landslides. To do so, we established a methodology for quantifying and mapping vulnerability for comparison between households and in two communities in Central Nepal. This approach was based on assessing underlying social, ecological and physical risk factors that cause vulnerability and the multitude of variables that create risk. Data for our framework were collected based on multiple research techniques, such as remote sensing, GIS, qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, participatory risk mapping and focus groups. Our goal was to keep this method relatively simple, low cost and useful to decisionmakers and NGOs for managing and designing integrated development and risk management approaches under changing climate conditions and increasing demographic pressures in Nepal. We compare a physical assessment of risk, a composite measure of risk including social and economic variables and finally a community assessment of risk. Our findings point to a relatively close measure of risk between the three methods with a number of conclusions on the “pros and cons” of each approach.  Keywords: Integrated risk and vulnerability participatory risk mapping, landslides, Nepal. assessments,  Diagnosis of climate-related risks by using a Bayesian updating method – a case study of summer temperature in China  JIN, YunYun (1,2); WANG, Ming (1,2); SHI, PeiJun (1,2); YANG, SaiNi (1,2)  1: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes & Resource Ecology,Beijing 100875,China; 2: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875 ,China  Presenting author: JIN, YunYun  jinyun@mail.bnu.edu.cn  Much attention has been drawn to the regional climate changes of China for its vulnerable ecological environment, under the background of fast socio-economic development in the country. We adopted the Bayesian updating method for computing the fraction of attributable risk related to climate damages developed by Jaeger et al in 2008, and proposed a System Instability Index (SII) that indicates the propensity of transitions toward the relatively instable phases in which observed climate variables show significant change in terms of trend or variation, or both. As a case study to test the 140 proposed method, we used the summer temperature data collected from 756 Chinese weather stations in the years of 1951 to 2009. We computed the time-varying weights of the 6 hypothesized models that characterize the temperature profiles in both mean and standard deviation and their change over time. The SII of each year was computed by summing up the weights of models in which instable phases were captured. We further analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of SII over China. We found out that the summer temperature abnormality started in a few places in the Loess Plateau, Inner Mongolia Plateau and Da and Xiao Xing’an Mountains in 1960s while all other areas presented stable status. The abnormality gradually expanded to YunnanGuizhou Plateau, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Tianshan regions in 1970-1980s, and then coastal line from Hainan Island to Yangtze River Delta in 1990-2000s. At the end of 2009, most areas in China, except North China Plain, Yangtze River Basin and Sichuan Basin, showed abnormality in the summer temperatures. This finding may move one step forward to understanding the environmental risk of China induced by global climate change, and this method may have a broader use for diagnosing climate related risks at various scales.  Keywords: climate-related risk, Bayesian updating,System Instability Index, climate change, temporal and spatial analysis  Rural hazards and vulnerability assessment in the downstream sector of Shiroro dam, Nigeria  JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed  Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, Nigeria, Federal Republif of  Presenting author: JINADU, Asimiyu Mohammed  jinaduola@futminna.edu.ng  Shiroro dam is one of the three major hydroelectric dams built on River Kaduna in Niger State, northwestern Nigeria. The downstream communities are exposed to annual flooding and other hazards related to their livelihood activities and living pattern. A study on hazard's identification and vulnerability assessment was conducted in Gusoro and Gurmana villages situated at the downstream sector of Shiroro dam. The study relied on direct field survey using the instruments of oral interviews, questionnaire administration and field measurements for data collection. The existing hazards were identified through field observations and interactions with community groups. Information for the vulnerability assessment was collected using six sensitivity domains (population, livelihoodpoverty, health, water and sanitation, housing and accessibility, environment) and three coping capacity domains (asset and infrastructure, human and economic resources, institutional capacity), each with a set of indicators for data collection. The results from data analysis indicated, among others, that the communities were exposed to floods, erosion and health hazards as well as the risk of building collapse and environmental degradation. The local coping strategies of building concentration on higher grounds, construction of elevated footpaths and embankments were found to be primitive and unsustainable. The problems of high level of illiteracy, poverty and dependent population (50%) as well as low or complete lack of access to safe drinking water, health facilities, basic infrastructure, credit facilities (13.0%) make the people highly vulnerable. The level of preparedness is low as there were no disaster management committees, local disaster management institutions and local disaster plans. All this reduces community resilience and increases the vulnerability of the people. The study suggested some practical measures for reducing the risk of disasters in the area based on the findings of the research.  Keywords: Hazards, Vulnerability, Communities, Shiroro Dam  Social learning in education – an important step in practical integration of preventive risk reduction and adaptation to climate change  JOHANSSON, Magnus (1,2); NYBERG, Lars (1); EVERS, Mariele (1,3); HANSSON, Max (1)  1: Centre for Climate and Safety, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden; 2: Evaluation and Monitoring Department, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Karlstad, Sweden; 3: Bergisch University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany  Presenting author: JOHANSSON, Magnus  magnus.johansson@kau.se  The potential of linking the preventive phase of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) with the adaptation in human society to forecasted consequences from climate change, has received growing acceptance internationally, but the integration of both fields is still at an embryonic stage. Integration in this case implies transdisciplinary approaches in complex fields where liabilities and stakeholders normally are found in different sectors and levels in society. For integration to be successful, a first step is to create platforms and contexts where participants may generate raised awareness about each other’s roles and evolve a shared problem identification. Social learning is a concept that has been used in many different contexts where uncertainty and change are crucial and challenging. It has earlier been linked as a suitable approach to issues such as public participation, governance or natural resource management. Here it is used in education, gathering among others stakeholders working within the fields of Flood Risk Management, DRR and Climate Change Adaptation at local or regional level around the two Swedish lakes Vänern and Mälaren. Teaching arrangements and didactic elements are described for the two pilot-courses that were held 20092010. The academic institutional arrangements favoured an open exchange and knowledge building, with local examples of management and strategies repeatedly in focus during several study visits in different cities along the shoreline. The elements of social learning facilitated the build-up of shared holistic perspectives, identified areas in need of development or research efforts and contributed to informal as well as formal relationships among participants.  Keywords: social learning, education, DRR, CCA  Recovery and resilience of industry and geographic sectors after the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes  KACHALI, Hlekiwe (1); SEVILLE, Erica (2); VARGO, John (2,3)  1: Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, New Zealand; 2: Resilient Organisations Research Programme; 3: Department of Accouting and Information Systems, University of Canterbury, New Zealand  Presenting author: KACHALI, Hlekiwe  hlekiwe.kachali@pg.canterbury.ac.nz  Canterbury New Zealand experienced four earthquakes greater than MW 6.0 between September 2010 and December 2011. This study employs system dynamics and brings together data collected via surveys, case studies and interviews with organisations affected by the earthquakes to show how systemic interactions and interdependencies within and between industry and geographic sectors affect their recovery post-disaster. The industry sectors in the study are: construction for its role in the rebuild, information and communication technology which is a regional highgrowth industry, trucking for logistics, critical infrastructure for provision of essential services as well as fast moving consumer goods (e.g. supermarkets) and hospitality to track recovery through non-discretionary and discretionary spend respectively. Also in the study are three urban centres including the region’s largest Central Business District which has been inaccessible since the earthquake of 22 February 2011. Organisations report that some of the most disruptive effects of the earthquakes were staff wellbeing and customer issues both of which are not direct physical impacts. Key to recovery was the pivotal role staff played in the response and recovery phases. Additionally, findings show that organisational predisaster preparedness is not the major factor in recovery after a regional disaster. This work also highlights how earthquake effects propagated between sectors and how sectors collaborated to mitigate difficulties such as product demand instability. Other interacting factors are identified that influence the recovery trajectories of the different sectors. These are resource availability, insurance payments, aid from central government, timely and quality recovery information. This work seeks to bring together research and practice as well as demonstrate that in recovering from disaster, it is crucial for organisations to not only recognise what interacting factors could affect them but also how to reduce their vulnerability and importantly increase their resilience to multiple hazards.  Keywords: earthquakes, recovery, resilience, industry sectors, urban centres  The ISMEP activities on raising public awareness, education and volunteering  KADIOGLU, Mikdat  Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of  Presenting author: KADIOGLU, Mikdat  kundak@itu.edu.tr  The objective of this programme is to raise public awareness of risks and to play an active role in disaster reduction and disaster preparedness. This encompasses a substantial part of ISMEP’s activities whose aim is to transform Istanbul into a disaster-prepared city through individuals, families and institutions. Training programmes based on the concept of “Safe Life Volunteers” have been implemented for creating basic disaster awareness among individuals and families and of teaching basic knowledge and behaviour models. The programme also motivates a “safe life” culture and ensures extensive participation in citywide preparations, laying the groundwork for a proposed disaster volunteers system. Fifteen different training modules have been prepared for one of the projects implemented by ISMEP. Experts from both the private and public sectors together with academics have prepared programs under the supervision of instructors and 141 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Sustainability Frontiers  Presenting author: KAGAWA, Fumiyo  fkagawa@sustainabilityfrontiers.org  This presentation will introduce a recently-completed UNESCO/UNICEF Technical Guidance Tool for introducing disaster risk reduction (DRR) into education sector policies, curricula and assessment at primary and secondary school level. The Tool is mainly for policy makers and curriculum developers in government, non-governmental and UN agencies. It will first be argued that disaster risk reduction education (DRRE) should be located within an education for sustainable development (ESD) framework and that, within that frame, it can be aligned with climate change education (CCE), life skills education and child-friendly learning initiatives, and so make a significant contribution to the evolving notion of quality education. Thereafter, the main features of the Tool will be reviewed: its insistence on systematic horizontal and vertical integration of DRR in school curricula; its guidance on the planning and progression of curriculum development (and its emphasis on consensusbuilding within multi-sector partnership); its demonstration of processes whereby learning context-appropriate learning outcomes as well as learning outcome progression can be determined and constructive alignment achieved between outcomes and forms and styles of learner assessment; its guidance on the development of learning modules and associated activities and materials and its dovetailed advice on the facilitation of learning; its teacher professional development guidelines and proposals; its benchmarks and indicators for monitoring and evaluating curriculum and its delivery. Finally, the presenters will briefly look through the lenses of the whole school and whole system at issues of DRR curriculum mainstreaming.  Using dasymetrics to address the aggregation error in spatial data: a multi-criteria approach for flood vulnerability assessment using spatial data  KAILIPONI, Paul (1); SHAW, Duncan (2)  1: University of Manchester, United Kingdom; 2: Warwick University, United Kingdom  Presenting author: KAILIPONI, Paul  paul.kailiponi@manchester.ac.uk  Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods that use 142 spatial data can assess risk/vulnerability for emergency management. These risk/vulnerability assessments are used by emergency managers to support resource allocation and disaster mitigation projects. Improvements can be made to risk/ vulnerability assessments by utilizing a spatial disaggregation/ aggregation technique known as dasymetrics. The dasymetric process allows for improved comparison of spatial data that is aggregated to dissimilar (non-commensurate) areas. Two error terms will be discussed that can quantitatively assess data improvement using dasymetrics against assumptions of homogenous distribution. This combination of methods will be illustrated through a flood vulnerability analysis according to Environment Agency (EA) regulations in the United Kingdom (UK). The case study shows how the use of dasymetrics can change the results of the flood vulnerability assessment. Improved spatial techniques can substantively improve the identification of vulnerable areas to flood hazard and support precautionary actions. This advancement in the combination of multi-criteria risk assessments and spatial data can be generalized to any hazard that can be spatially represented. The inclusion of the dasymetric process to MCDA is especially suited to emergency management due to its reliance on data aggregated to spatial areas (polygons).  Keywords: flooding, vulnerability, Geographic Information systems, dasymetrics, multi-criteria decision analysis  Indirect economic impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake: approach by Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model  KAJITANI, Yoshio (1); TATANO, Hirokazu (2)  1: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; 2: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan  Presenting author: KAJITANI, Yoshio  kajitani@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp  The economic indicator such as the production index in Japan reveals that the indirect impacts in industrial sectors following the Great East Japan Earthquake is significantly large. There were multiple sources of impacts, which interdependently affect not only the firms in the physically damaged area, but also those in the non-damaged areas in Japan. Many materials and manufacturing parts suppliers were located in the Tsunami and earthquake affected regions and scarcity of their productions induce supply-chain impacts to other industries all over Japan and some of manufacturing industries in the world. In order to review and learn these cascading impacts and develop the indirect economic impact assessment model for the future disasters in the world, we arrange and apply the spatial computable general equilibrium model to the case of supply shock occurred in Tohoku and North-Kanto regions. The obtained results under different key assumptions of the model are investigated comparing with several observed data sets such as economic indicators and the results from questionnaire surveys.  Landslide risk management issues in SafeLand  KALSNES, Bjørn (1); NADIM, Farrokh (1); BAYER, Joanne (2); SCOLOBIG, Anna (2); CASCINI, Leonardo (3); FERLISI, Settimio (3)  1: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, NGI, Norway; 2: IIASA, Austria; 3: University of Salerno, Italy  Presenting author: KALSNES, Bjørn  bgk@ngi.no  Landslide risk management represents a multi-faceted activity, varying from hazard and risk assessment at various scales in time and space, through possible use of monitoring techniques, to evaluation of appropriate risk management strategies. These issues were studied in SafeLand, a research project under the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme (FP7). Part of the research focused on the effects of climate change and changing demography in Europe over the next decades, and identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots in Europe. Risk mitigation and prevention measures, including early warning systems (EWS) are important issues for landslide risk management. EWS requires the knowledge and technology to predict and forecast landslides, and monitor key parameters such as slope deformations and rainfall. In SafeLand, risk management at a local scale was studied at Nocera Inferiore in the Campania region (southern Italy). The study included cooperative activities between geotechnical experts providing proposals for risk mitigation measures, and social scientists taking care of the decision-making process. Community stakeholders were involved through a number of meetings discussing various options for risk reduction. The mitigation packages were prepared on the basis of extensive fieldwork aimed at better understanding local views and perspectives. Each package included a different mix of active and passive measures, including relocation. On the basis of the results of the working groups, a compromise solution for risk mitigation was presented and discussed with the participants. In landslide risk management it is important to involve the population exposed to landslide risk in the decision-making process for choosing the most appropriate risk mitigation measure(s). The pilot study of Nocera Inferiore demonstrates the potential and challenges of public participation in decisions characterized by high personal stakes and intricate technical, economic and social considerations.  Keywords: Landslide, mitigation, stakeholder involvement  Hybrid socio-technical approach for effective risk communication, risk management and early warning system  KARNAWATI, Dwikorita  GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY, Indonesia, Republic of  Presenting author: KARNAWATI, Dwikorita  dwiko2007@yahoo.co.id  More than 50 % of the Indonesian region are situated in the high-risk zone for multi-natural disasters, due to the natural conditions and the uncontrolled land use change in the region. Unfortunately, the relocation of local communities to safer area has not yet been successfully conducted due to socio-cultural and socio-economic constraints. Therefore, the establishment of an appropriate early warning system, such as for landslide, floods, debris flows, volcanic eruptions and tsunami is urgently required. Nevertheless, because of the socio-cultural and economic reasons the early warning system has not yet always been effectively implemented. Therefore, the importance of integrating the hybrid social and technical approach is promoted to provide an effective risk communication and early warning system at the local level (i.e. at the village level) in Indonesia. The social approach was developed by addressing the local socio-cultural-economical conditions as well as by strengthening the capacity of the local government and the local community. The technical approach was established by encouraging the participation of local task force for disaster risk reduction to develop a community-based hazard and risk maps as well as the local early warning system. The role of local universities was very important to provide the research-based capacity development program, which is strategic for encouraging the partnership of local communities with local governments and local stakeholders in developing local action plans in disaster risk reduction. Accordingly, the cyber and community-based technology was established for facilitating effective risk monitoring, communication and an early warning system. It was also obvious that the local task force at village level played an important role as driving power in implementing the disaster risk reduction program, especially to guarantee the effectiveness of the risk monitoring, risk communication and early warning system.  Keywords: Risk, communication,management,early warning  African Risk Capacity – Sovereign Disaster Risk Management for Africa  KASSAM, Fatima Oral presentations authorized departments. To achieve complete organizational preparedness, training programmes have been initiated with the goal of reaching everyone in the community, starting with individuals and families. Innovative training materials for all ages were also prepared to convey messages to various target groups. The basic premise of disaster awareness training is not merely to inculcate people with information but to change people’s habits and behaviours and to motivate them to take action. This is why the module of “Safe Life Training” focuses on hands-on applications. The programme’s objective is to equip people with practical skills after being given information on disaster preparedness. Public information and awareness, training programmes and dissemination models organized for Istanbul residents are explained with examples.  Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction into the Curriculum: A Technical Guidance Tool  KAGAWA, Fumiyo; SELBY, David IDRC DAVOS 2012  World Food Programme  Presenting author: KASSAM, Fatima  marc.stal@grforum.org  On average over the last five years, the UN World Food Programme has spent half a billion dollars annually in food assistance in Africa due to weather-related emergencies. Funding is secured on a largely ad hoc basis after disaster strikes and only then can relief be mobilized. In the meantime, lives and livelihoods are lost, assets are depleted and development gains experience significant setbacks. The African Risk Capacity, ARC, is a groundbreaking project of the African Union designed to improve current responses to drought-related food security emergencies and to build capacity within AU member states to manage drought risks. As an African-owned, continental index-based weather risk insurance pool and early response mechanism, ARC offers an African solution to one of the continent's most pressing challenges. By bringing together the concepts of insurance and contingency planning, ARC aims to create a new way of managing weather risk by transferring the burden away from African governments to international financial markets that can handle the risk much better. This entity will use advanced satellite weather surveillance and software - developed by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) - to quantify the continent's risk, estimate and trigger quick-disbursing funds to help African countries hit by severe drought implement effective and timely responses to vulnerable populations.  Keywords: Risk Transfer, DRR, risk quantification  Cultural landscape of DRR in Russia  KAVTARADZE, Dmitry  Ecology and Environmental Preservation in the Academy of Social Affairs, Russian Federation  Presenting author: KAVTARADZE, Dmitry  kavtaradze@spa.msu.ru  It is estimated that 80% of loss of life as a result of natural disasters are "human made". Therefore the Russian government introduced a new discipline which includes citizenship, healthy life style, first aid, and general risk reduction, already more than 10 years ago. Together with an 143
  • introduction on geology, astronomy, geography, biology etc. in the school standard syllabus this was regarded as a step towards a "Culture of safe lifestyle and behavior". Important part of this “education about oneself” and gaining knowledge on practical behavior n unpredicted events by interactive exercises and tools following the rule: ”In dangerous situation people behave not as they were taught, but as the able to act”.  Strategic risk management by a roads provider  KELLERHALS, Christian  Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO), Switzerland  Presenting author: KELLERHALS, Christian  christian.kellerhals@astra.admin.ch  The goal of the presentation is to give an overview of how FEDRO's infrastructure division identifies, monitors and manages its strategic risks. It primarily deals with technical and environmental risks, and touches on some societal risks. Reference is made to two complementing presentations FEDRO proposes, which look at two specific risk categories of FEDRO's, viz natural hazards and dangerous goods transport. The Infrastructure division of the Swiss federal roads office is in charge of constructing, maintaining and operating the Swiss motorway network. Its goals are: to complete the network, to identify weak points, to secure the availability, to maintain the functional capacity, to secure operational maintenance, and to preserve the substance and value. The goal of the strategic risk assessment is to detect risks, which may prevent the Division from reaching the abovementioned goals, to monitor their development and to develop mitigating measures if necessary. In addition, a comparison is made with risk assessments carried out in earlier years to find out whether risks change in significance and whether mitigating measures were successful or need to be adjusted. The presentation will look at how risks are identified, classified (technical/institutional/environmental as well as reputational risks) and assessed (impact/probability). The strategic risks the Division has currently on its monitoring list include: under staffing, corruption, uncoordinated building sites, natural hazards, dangerous goods transport, lacking maintenance and lacking project control due to outsourcing. These risks will be presented together with the corresponding mitigating measures. Finally, an outlook will be given on how we intend to improve the integration of our operative, projectbased risk management into our strategic risk management.  Keywords: strategic risk management, roads, public sector  Addressing risk and resilience: an analysis of Māori communities and cultural technologies in response to the Christchurch earthquakes  KENNEY, Christine Marie (1); JOHNSTON, David (2); PATON, Douglas (3); REID, John (4); PHIBBS, Suzanne Rachel (5)  1: Edith Cowan University, Australia; 2: Joint Centre for Disaster Research/GNS Science, New Zealand; 3: University of Tasmania, Australia; 4: Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, New Zealand; 5: Massey University, New Zealand  Presenting author: KENNEY, Christine Marie  c.kenney@ecu.edu.au 144 IDRC DAVOS 2012  Since September 2010 a series of earthquakes have caused widespread social, financial and environmental devastation in Christchurch, New Zealand. Cultural strengths that are protective in times of adversity have been noted in Māori communities but how these qualities are operationalised following natural disasters has rarely been documented. A research project conducted in partnership with the local Iwi (tribe) Ngāi Tahu, is addressing this knowledge gap through identifying, and documenting the ways cultural factors facilitate recovery and sustain resilience in Māori communities impacted by earthquakes. A qualitative research methodology (Te Whakamāramatanga), based on Ngāi Tahu values, and practices has shaped the community-based participatory research design. The culturally relevant approach has facilitated trusting relationships between researchers and local Māori communities. Community engagement has been fostered, as well as capture of Māori understandings and practices associated with hazard mitigation, disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Data analysis draws on social and risk theories as well as indigenous epistemological concepts. Initial analysis suggests that cultural, relational and moral technologies interact to create a framework that supports recovery and sustains resilience in Māori communities. Emergent cultural technologies and models of resilience will be inter-related with Paton’s adaptive capacity model of community resilience, which will facilitate acknowledgement and linkage of Māori knowledge, values and practices with global understandings of resilience. The research is facilitating a review of tribal social/ emergency services and practices, and supporting programme development aimed at building Māori capacity in disaster preparedness, as well as promoting community recovery and resilience. Participation in policy development, through ongoing Ngāi Tahu engagement with the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority as well as local and national government is being fostered. Cultural knowledge arising from the research will inform urban and regional disaster preparedness planning in ways that mitigate the impact of future disasters on the indigenous population.  Keywords: Maori, recovery, resilience, disaster preparedness  Haiti, two years later: What has happened to the injured? Factors affecting social integration of the 12th January 2010 earthquake victims in Port-au-Prince  KHALLAF, Nezha (1); SHANG, Lou (1); MULLER, Joel (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (1); ALLAFORT-DUVERGER, Thierry (2); BLACKWELL, Nikki (2); DELAUCHE, MarieChristine (2); LE PERFF, Hervé (2)  1: LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France; 2: ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of  Presenting author: KHALLAF, Nezha  nezhacasa@yahoo.fr  The objective of the study is to determine the factors affecting the social integration of earthquake victims with severe limb injuries according to the type of medical management they received (amputation or reconstructive surgery). The SUTRA² (Suivie et traitement du traumatisme des membres en cas d’afflux massif des blessés dans les contextes difficiles) study involves the management of limb trauma patients during a massive influx of injured (war or natural disaster). The study compares two cohorts of victims of the 2010 Haitian earthquake. One cohort received reconstructive surgery without amputation as the first medical intention and the second cohort were treated with amputation by first intent. A control group was composed of injured who did not receive any surgical intervention. Two sets of interviews were conducted with the victims, the first one year after the earthquake and the second 12 months later, on the 2nd anniversary of the earthquake in January 2012. Medical, functional, psychological and socio-economic data was collected from 306 victims of the 2010 January earthquake. Prior to the disaster, the two cohorts shared the same socioeconomic characteristics, with differences emerging after the earthquake. Amputations occurred more frequently between the third and the tenth day post earthquake. Amputation is inversely correlated with level of education. Patients with amputations represent a loss of human capital and a disappearance of family income (after one year, only 19 out of 188 of the amputee cohort earn any income). These differences are are more evident after the second round of interviews. This paper will discuss the factors that contributed to the successful social integration of some of the victims, despite their handicap and the failure of others to do so.  Keywords: earthquake, amputation, social integration, injured  Medical treatment options and patient preference: the case of the limb-trauma victims of the earthquake in Haiti on January 12, 2010  KHALLAF, Nezha (1); SHANG, Lou (1); MULLER, Joel (1); CALLENS, Stéphane (1); BLACKWELL, Nikki (2); DELAUCHE, Marie Christine (2); ALLAFORTDUVERGER, Thierry (2); LE PERFF, Hervé (2)  1: LEM UMR 8179, Lille, France; 2: ALIMA (Alliance for International Medical Action), Senegal, Republic of  Presenting author: KHALLAF, Nezha  nezhacasa@yahoo.fr  The 2010 earthquake in Haiti raises questions about the optimal management of severe limb trauma patients after natural disasters. SUTRA² (Suivie et traitement du traumatisme des membres en cas d’afflux massif des blessés dans les contextes difficiles) is a longitudinal interdisciplinary study with the objective to determine the most appropriate management of severe limb trauma victims and improve the quality of care provided to them. The SUTRA² data base has been established for two years, commencing the date of the earthquake (12th of January 2010). It consists of the medical files of 306 limb trauma patients, which includes one control cohort, one cohort of amputees and a cohort of patients who received reconstructive surgery. The data is derived from a set of socio-economic, psychological, medical and functional domains. It uses validated methods (SF-36, quota evaluation). The chosen reference scenario is reconstructive surgical care. The method is participative, conforming to ethical principals of clear informed consent. The quota evaluation shows that victims perceive benefit from a reconstructive surgical approach (on average consenting to pay more than 15% of their income for this care). The percentages of those victims consenting to pay are very scattered with some high values, despite a situation of general financial ruin. The results obtained can be explained by a situation of poor medical infrastructure in Haiti and underlines the problems of equity and quality in the health-care system.  Keywords: amputation, limb trauma, economics, earthquake, reconstructive surgery  Tsunami hazard mapping through characteristic analysis of inundation  KIM, Dong Seag; PARK, Hyoung Seong; HONG, Sung Jin  National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of  Presenting author: KIM, Dong Seag  kds84@korea.kr  The purpose of this study is to develop the tsunami hazard map by analyzing the characteristic of coastal inundation on the east coast of Korea. Normally, Korea is considered as safe to have Japan as a barrier of the Pacific tsunami disaster. Indeed it is not safe because there is a long seismic zone along the western coast of Japan in the East Sea. So far five tsunamis were observed in Korea such as Kanpo tsunami 1741, Shankotan tsunami 1940, Niigata tsunami 1964, Central East Sea tsunami 1983, and Hokkaido southwestern tsunami 1993. Among them the Central East Sea tsunami 1983, and Hokkaido southwestern tsunami cost casualties and property damages in the east coast including Kangwon province of Korea. In this study, probable tsunamis are investigated by analysis of seismic zone in the East Sea. Hypothetical tsunami scenarios are developed to analysis characteristic of inundation and to establish tsunami hazard map on the eastern coast of Korea. Characteristics of tsunami inundation are analyzed for the study areas based on numerical simulation results using different scenarios. According to the analysis of tsunami inundation, tsunami energy trend to concentrate in the eastern coast of Korea due to bathymetric features of the East Sea. Also tsunami height is calculated up to 12 meters above M.S.L. Finally, tsunami hazard maps are developed based on the analysis of inundation for the study area. It is possible that inundation area, evacuation routes, shelters selection are easily established by the development of tsunami hazard map. If tsunami is generated in the East Sea, it is possible for residents to evacuate safely from dangerous area. In the normal situation, tsunami hazard map can be used as the references of education and promotion for the disaster reduction and prevention under the risk assessment and disaster prediction.  Keywords: tsunami, hazard, inundation, numerical model  Can the PFI model mitigate risk in non-infrastructure procurement?  KINGSMILL-VELLACOTT, Anna; SIDERMANWOLTER, Kirk  Consortium for the Built Environment, United Kingdom  Presenting author: KINGSMILL-VELLACOTT, Anna  anna@akvassociates.com  In the current economic climate there is an increased requirement for governments, both national and local, to demonstrate value for money (VFM) to their stakeholders. Nowhere is this more important than in major infrastructure 145 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • projects. For this reason, the UK Government has, for a number of years, used the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) methodology for such projects. However, the lessons learned from this procurement method may have applicability across procurement frameworks for other purchasing requirements. In the UK, HM Treasury released Choosing the right Fabric, A Framework for Performance Information in 2001. This introduced the concepts of formalised performance framework for government by putting in place an outcome focused model. The basis for the framework can be seen in the Balanced Scorecard method, as introduced by Kaplan et al. The aim of this model was to provide a value for money / cost effectiveness output. However, it only defines cost effectiveness. HM Treasury defined value for money in 1997, so its exclusion from this model is surprising. The Treasury defines VfM as, 'not just (sic) about achieving the lowest initial price: it is defined as the optimum combination of whole life costs and quality'. In 2008, the model was updated by then Treasury MD and Head of Finance Profession, Dame Mary Keegan, to include two additional elements: risk and reporting. This paper considers whether the introduction of risk would provide a more effective delivery of VFM for central governments in areas of procurement other than those currently procured using a PFI methodology. It considers whether this can be done across all government sector outcomes and contemplates the lessons of PFI in contributing to the discussion on the development of an evaluation framework for risk and value for money.  Keywords: Risk, Value for Money, PFI, procurement, strategy  Technology use aspects of alerting systems  KLAFFT, Michael (1,2)  1: Fraunhofer Institute for Open Communication Systems; 2: FOM University of Applied Sciences  Presenting author: KLAFFT, Michael  Michael.Klafft@fokus.fraunhofer.de  Advances in information and communication technology offer new opportunities to alert the population in emergency situations. Multi-channel alerting systems are nowadays state of the art. They combine traditional broadcasting via TV, radio or teletext with more recent approaches like cell broadcasts or even social media and complementary opt-in channels like SMS, fax or E-mail. Additionally, it has become technologically feasible to adopt alerts to the individual needs and preferences of the recipients. However, how shall all these technical capabilities be used in emergencies to achieve the optimal impact? Questions to be discussed in this context are: (1) Does too much personalization create confusion and chaos? How much personalization is feasible, how much is needed and accepted? To which extent shall personal data be used in the context of alerting and how can they be protected in IT applications? Who shall be in control of registration and personalization processes? What are the essential components of an alert message, and are there socio-cultural and regional factors to be observed in the design process? How shall 146 IDRC DAVOS 2012 technology support the alert message design process in emergency situations?The presentation at the workshop will bring forward a set of theses on these issues which will then be reflected and assessed by practitioners in a related panel discussion.  Building Resilient Business  KOCSIS, Otto  Global Head of Technical Center Business Resilience, Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, Switzerland  Presenting author: KOCSIS, Otto  seefeld285@bluewin.ch  Companies, like communities, are increasingly exposed to risks linked to globalisation issues, underlining the connectivity of disaster drivers. In response, there is shift in focus for business risk management from protecting business assets, business continuity and damage analysis to the protection of value creation and building resilient business. The process of analysing risk and putting in place resiliencebuilding measures for business shares many similarities with the process followed by civil society organisation for building resilience in communities. A coherent methodology and indicators to measure and analyse risk is used that allows comparison between different businesses in different risk contexts. Here, the different elements of the business system including suppliers, sourcing/production/distribution of products, and clients are analysed in terms of exposure to risk and the value of the business at risk where a disaster occurs. The different components of the business are analysed in terms of their resilience to potential risks, with a set of resilience measures proposed for the business system that acts to prepare, mitigate or accept risk. Globalisation and its impact on exposure to hazards is forcing business to rethink the issues threatening the value of their own business, and to consider risk management solutions that look more widely at the systems that impact on their business.  Livelihood improvement of the poorest farmer through degraded forest management in Nepal  KOIRALA, Pashupati Nath  Government, Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of  Presenting author: KOIRALA, Pashupati Nath  koiralapn@gmail.com  This paper highlights, a case of Jhirubas community in Palpa of Nepal, strengthening in a cluster of 227 households to move for collective efforts for livelihood support, which has shown a promising result in the leasehold forestry intervention within a two-year period. The entitlement received, through leasehold forestry programme, from the government has empowered the poorest vulnerable people to manage the degraded forest from low productivity to the higher productive land. A short period of intervention has geared up an optimistic impact on increasing income level of the members. The success of rejuvenating the fragile sloppy mountain and changing livestock farming practices have made rural poorest farmers towards a good prosperous life from miserable position. The threat of longer drought and rain fed agricultural system has been no more risk for their rural life set up and supporting income diversification. It is estimated that the income level of 227 households will increase 13 folds from forestry products such as broom production within three years. Similarly, from livestock 6 folds incomes will be increased. The experiences is leading the necessity of the intervention with all components of livelihood assets is necessary to make people self-reliant on a regular income sources from the degraded forest land. The results will have a very good lesson for several professionals and researchers to orient the idea into policy development. To conclude, the success cycle and story could be replicate into other shifting cultivated land and similar characterized social set up in the country.  Keywords: livelihood, leasehold, forest, livestock  Area wide risk assessment – a best practice example in the Province of the Tyrol  KOLER, Andreas; HAMA, Angela Michiko; ORTNER, Stefan  alpS GmbH, Austria, Republic of  Presenting author: KOLER, Andreas  koler@alps-gmbh.com  Our changing climate and the increasing dependency on technology are just two out of many factors that will strongly affect all future decisions made by public authorities and cause substantial changes in the risk landscapes around the globe. At the same time, the number of critical infrastructure facilities keeps skyrocketing. This combination leads to increasing social, economic and cultural vulnerabilities of countries and municipalities, their inhabitants and economies. To deal with these challenges, the Province of the Tyrol initiated a project that helps municipalities on their way towards an efficient and cost effective risk assessment to reduce vulnerabilities and losses. The Provincial Early Warning and Emergency Management Centre of the Tyrol, Austria together with the alpS – Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Technologies developed a hands-on method for risk assessment in the public sector that follows the latest scientific findings as well the practical needs of public authorities. Together with the developed ORTIS-tool, it allows the implementation of a blended risk assessment method that combines expert- and community-based approaches and considers multi-hazard risks and cascading effects as well as the principles of local participation and cost efficiency. For these efforts and achievements in creating a sustainable, local solution, the Province of the Tyrol was chosen as a role model for community-based risk assessment, management and reduction of the 2010-2015 World Disaster Reduction Campaign: Making Cities Resilient: "My city is getting ready”, run by UNISDR. This presentation will give deeper insights into the applied method and the ORTIS-tool. Besides, the costs and benefits of an implementation will be highlighted and a brief overview of the results of more than 300 workshops in 279 municipalities given. Finally, the nomination as a role model region within the UNISDR campaign will be addressed and options for future collaboration or application in other regions discussed.  Keywords: risk assessment, local participation, multi-risk, community based risk management, hybrid approach  Preliminary study of the relationship between new risk factors and traditional risk factors - taking the relationship between the population urbanization and natural disasters in China’s county-level units for example  KONG, Feng (1,3); SHI, Peijun (1,2,3); SUN, Shao (1,3); LI, Man (1,3)  1: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; 2: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 3: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China  Presenting author: KONG, Feng  kongfeng0824@qq.com  Traditional risk factors fall into four categories: natural disasters, public health, accidents during production and social security. The four types of risks are called as public safety issues by the government of China . Each category of the four risk factors includes a large number of risk elements. New risk factors are the ones that are connected to human with our discoveries and more attention to them, which is called locking risk. Currently, traditional risk factors have not been eliminated, while new risks have emerged gradually. For example, population growth or population problem, urbanization or ecological construction and environmental problems, increasing insecurity of grain, water and energy or problems of resource scarcity and economic and social problems, etc. There are countless relations between new risk and global climatic changes. Therefore, figuring out the relationships between new risks, global climatic changes as well as natural disasters is of great importance. Taking China as the example in this study, select three sets of cross-section data in recent two decades, namely China’s county-level population data (covering rural population, urban population and total population) in 1991, 2000 and 2009 and compute the rates of population urbanization to make a diagram of urbanization rates of China’s countylevel cities in the three years. And combine the diagram with China’s disaster plans or diagrams of danger degree, vulnerability and risks of a specific natural disaster, such as drought and rainstorm, to analyze the correlation between population changes and natural disasters and reveal the disaster effects of population urbanization, thereby providing a basis for disaster chain risk assessment guided by regional rules of China’s natural disaster chain, and laying a solid foundation for studying relations between new risk factors and traditional risk factors.  Keywords: traditional risk factors, overlay analysis, population urbanization, risk assessment  Natech accidents following the great eastern japan earthquake and tsunami  KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth (1); CRUZ, Ana Maria (2)  1: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; 2: Consultant, Natech risk management and emergency planning, France, and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Japan  Presenting author: KRAUSMANN, Elisabeth  elisabeth.krausmann@jrc.ec.europa.eu  An earthquake of magnitude 9.0 occurred off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan, on March 11, 2011, at 14:46:23 Japan Standard Time. It generated a tsunami 130 km off the coast of 147 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  1: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, ISR; 2: San Pierro a Grado Nuclear Research Group, University of Pisa, Italy; 3: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, gw/N  Presenting author: KROMP, Wolfgang  wolfgang.kromp@boku.ac.at  From an analysis of the accident in Chernobyl 20 years ago and from comparisons with other technological catastrophes of the last decades, social and institutional conditions are derived that are at the root of serious technical accidents. The guiding questions of the study are: (1) Were the organisational and structural conditions suitable to support the recognition of technical weaknesses of the plant before its installation or at least before an accident occurred? (2) How did the systems handle recognized technical weaknesses and precursors of the accident? How was the resulting risk taken into account? (3) Were the consequences of potential accidents minimised through extensive prior analyses of potential accident sequences? (3) Was the handling of the accident adequate or was the catastrophe possibly even amplified by lack of insight? Root causes underlying technological failures causing the different accidents and possibly human errors triggering them, were found to be economic considerations, errors of appraisal of limitations of technology and ensuing complacence, inadequacy of checks and balances, insufficient spread of information, prestige thinking and corporate interest of the involved industry. While nuclear technology and safety have been improved since Chernobyl, most of the root causes have not been addressed – they might even have gained relevance. The accident at Fukushima Daichi, and even more so the information communicated during and 148 after the Fukushima accident by the nuclear establishment give indications in this direction. As Brychanov, the former director of Chernobyl nuclear power plant put it resignedly: Chernobyl has not taught anything to anyone.  Keywords: nuclear power, technical disasters, root causes  The risk of the wrong priorities in university education  KROMP-KOLB, Helga (1); LINDENTHAL, Thomas (1); KROMP, Wolfgang (2)  1: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, gW/N; 2: BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, ISR  Presenting author: KROMP-KOLB, Helga  helga.kromp-kolb@boku.ac.at  The “State of the Planet Declaration” by the Planet under Pressure Conference 2012 sets off saying that the continued functioning of the Earth System is at risk. Without urgent action, we could face threats to water, food and other critical resources: these threats risk intensifying economic, ecological and social crises, creating the potential for a humanitarian emergency on a global scale. The defining challenge of our age is to safeguard Earth’s natural processes to ensure the survival of civilization while eradicating poverty, reducing conflict over resources, and supporting human and ecosystem health. Climate scientists agree that deep cutting action needs to be taken this decade. Oceanographers and biologists put similar claims forward in view of ocean acidification and biodiversity loss. Whatever the actions, they must be taken now, at a time when politicians tend to focus on the economic, the monetary and the political systems. Yet it is clear that these highly interdependent and interacting issues must be addressed simultaneously. In view of this situation: What kinds of “experts” are needed to assist society in the global challenges ahead? Are universities producing the type of experts society needs? Are scientists given the right incentives? Are the indicators of academic success still valid or must they be complemented by additional, fundamentally different indicators? What are the risks involved in producing the “wrong” experts? Could the right type of science have saved societies that collapsed in the past? What does it take to equip coming generations of scientists for the multifaceted, highly interconnected issues? Can the necessary change come from within the system; can those who grew up in the thinking of the past make the transition to teaching new paradigms? What must other sectors contribute? Answers to these questions will be attempted based on an analysis of the situation in Austria.  Keywords: University education, adapting to new needs, sustainable reseach  Resilience: from theory to practice  KUNDAK, Seda  Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, Republic of  Presenting author: KUNDAK, Seda  kundak@itu.edu.tr  The concept of resilience has been described in different ways. Each new definition makes the meaning broader so that the point we have reached today, resilience has a comprehensive meaning but less quantifiable. The main common point of these definitions is that resilience is a way to improve a strategy/behavior to be able to survive and to adapt against external shifts/impacts. To construct resilience the main ingredients are resource, latitude (redundancy), networks (social and institutional), information, experience, knowledge, diversity and robustness. Certainly these components should be performed by innovations, creativity, flexibility, collaboration, self-reliance and feedbacks. Once achieving desirable level, the crucial point is to sustain/ manage resilience by self-organization, increasing learning and individual capacity and rapid response. The terms given in italics are pieces of resilience puzzle revealed after many striking events; nevertheless the whole picture has not been fulfilled yet. Once looking at the bright side, disasters may be seen as opportunities to get lessons and to do things right. Consequently, big shocks are able either to wipe out or to unfold most of the weaknesses in the system. Therefore, efficiency of rehabilitation/mitigation process after disaster is crucial to achieve resilience in the future. Turkey has experienced such a big shock due to 1999 earthquakes. The management system at all levels shifted from disaster management to risk management/mitigation. It is worthy to note that this new approach requires long run to achieve resilient communities. This paper discusses the overall achievements of ISMEP Project as well as other relevant attempts with the frame of urban/community resilience concept. The practical indicators of resilience are tested on ISMEP project to show how we may exercise our theoretical knowledge on resilience on real cases.  Initial medical care of Chemical patients  LATASCH, Leo  Frankfurt City Health Department  Presenting author: LATASCH, Leo  leo.latasch@drkfrankfurt.de  Due to the international threat situation an event with terrorist background cannot be ruled out in a city of Frankfurt. Considering this particular situation, a conflict of interest arises between fast and effective assistance on the one side and the self-protection on the other side. Therefore the units will be downsized to a minimum, for their own safety. In a normal chemical accident but even in case of a terror backround it’s allways the firebrigade who controls the scene. Only a small group of firefighters in protective cloth will be send into the scene for primary evaluation. At this stage, there will be no medical treatment/care of victims. In comparison to other countries or even other German cities, the EMS personal is not equipped with protective clothing/ equipment like rebreathes. Therefore it is the responsibility of the firefighters to remove victims/patients out of the danger zone which is primarily set at approx. 100 meters. At the borders of this zone, the EMS will be waiting. According to the agent used, the firefighters will make a decision if they (still in protective clothing) will have to remove clothing and start cleaning the patient before they will hand over the patient to EMS personal. In general, no antidotes will be used without a physician present. According to the medical status (green, yellow, red) the patient will be minimally treated, stabilization for the transport is primary care. Immediately after stabilization the patient is transported to a hospital. Not every hospital in Frankfurt is equipped with showers on the outside premises. This restricts the availability of treatment for this kind of patients.  Hospital & EMS – real time information SOGRO  LATASCH, Leo (1); DI GENNARO, Mario (2)  1: Public Health Authority Frankfurt am Main; 2: German Red Cross Frankfurt am Main  Presenting author: LATASCH, Leo  leo.latasch@stadt-frankfurt.de  In the framework of a research project called SOGRO, funded by the German government, we run a full scale exercise with 550 „casualties“. The goal was the evaluation of medical disaster management supported by electronic triage. Today's threat level makes it absolutely necessary, to gain first information of the accident scene and to transfer these data´s immediately to hospitals nearby. With the technology provided by SOGRO it allows the hospitals in real time to follow the MCI and get rapidly prepared as needed. The technique is based in PDAs and RFID wristbands. In terms of data transmission, is redundant and therefore almost certainly fail safe. The project shortens the preclinical and clinical interface in many ways. Several exercises, with as much as 560 casualties have now demonstrated the enormous time savings for the hospitals to get prepared. By „seeing” the developing scene on sight, they are starting to become a part of the rescue chain. Where ever a complete concept of emergency preparedness and response is wanted/needed, it is imperative to further develop the EMS and hospital set up between the two and to establish interfaces. SOGRO´s part is sharing of information in two-way direction - injury with triage status directed to the hospital and dynamic reporting of available hospital beds back on sight, even during a running MCI. The use of electronic registration of casualties in major disasters is possible and the hospitals are even faster and more targeted to treat the injured. It can be determined by the real-time information sharing to achieve a maximum increase in resources in hospitals and thus ensure a quick and high professional medical care of patients. SOGRO has been able to prove this concept in an exercise with more than 500 patients and 16 participating hospitals.  Terrorist Train Bombings in Madrid. Learned Lessons  LEIS, Carmen  SAMUR-Protección Civil. Madrid. Spain  Presenting author: LEIS, Carmen  camacholc@madrid.es  SAMUR is the pre-hospital emergency medical system 149 Oral presentations Miyagi Prefecture in northeast Japan, which inundated over 400 km2 of land. The death toll has reached almost 16,000 with over 3,000 people still missing. The earthquake and tsunami also triggered several major Natech accidents, most notably crippling a nuclear power plant and causing the worst nuclear accident in recent times, as well as sparking multiple fires and explosions in major petrochemical complexes and hazardous-materials releases in other types of industry. In addition, many chemical companies had to interrupt production due to a loss of utilities (water, electricity), damage to berths, roads, etc., shortage of raw materials and because of continuous aftershocks, tsunami alerts and the evacuation of personnel. The direct losses amount to more than 200 billion US dollars (not considering the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident). Although the earthquake generated strong ground motion most damage was due to tsunami impact, which highlights the effectiveness of Japan’s earthquake risk reduction measures. Nevertheless, the Tohoku disaster shows that even prepared countries are at risk of major Natech events and offers an opportunity to learn lessons for future Natech accident prevention and mitigation. In order to understand the main reasons for the industrial damage and downtime an analysis of data collected from companies and authorities was performed. The results of this analysis are presented. Particular attention is given to the refinery fires in the Chiba and Miyagi Prefectures and preliminary lessons learned are presented.  The role of societal context in severe technical accidents  KROMP, Wolfgang (1); ANDREEV, Iouli (1); ANREEVA, Irina (1); GIERSCH, Martin (2); KROMP-KOLB, Helga (3) IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • in Madrid. Samur-PC runs Basic Life Support Units and Advanced Life Support units. On March 11, 2004, ten bombs placed on four different trains detonated during the terrorist attack in Madrid. 192 people were killed (173 people on scene, 2 people died during transport and 17 deaths in the hospitals) more than 1,800 injured. The magnitude of the attack called for the massd mobilisation of resources. This resulted a regional and national response – something which has previously never happened. The lessons we learned are resumed in the next points: - Response to multi site incident needs to be global - Coordination between commanders and dedicated communications channel - Dedicated radio channels (between bases) - Commander's identification - The arrival and exit of the workforce must be controlled - Casualty organization on site – by severity.Triage cards are not always useful. Colors triage was not used (though avilable)- possibly because severity was evident. - Field Hospital improved quality of care and use of ALS resources. Phyisicans presence improved care. - Personal protective equipment is requires. Safety a major consideration. “In unsafe site, rescue should predominate over the stabilization” - Discipline in these incidents is the key to an adequate organization - The mass casualty incident procedure should be improved to address the needs of incidents with multiple focus. SAMURPC mass casualty incident protocol was modified including CRBN preparedness - Periodical training with simulation exercises (interal and inta-institutional) is very helpful. The collaboration between all the proffesionals) was extraordinary - The capacity to increase the human and mobile resources is necessary. In two hours and twenty five minutes all the incident sites were evacuated. - Distribution of patientes to hospitals – homogenus Pillars for catastrophe preparedness: training, material resources and Simulation programs  Same problem – different solutions: Spanish Model  LEIS, Carmen  SAMUR-Protección Civil. Madrid. Spain  Presenting author: LEIS, Carmen  camacholc@madrid.es  Since the terrorist attacks on March 11th 2004, SAMUR PC Madrid is preparing for a possible CBRN attack and not only to an explosives one. The reponsibility to respond to a CBRN incident has shifted from the military to civiliyan institutions, that have different structures, but will support thus cooperation is required. Some important points about the pre-hospital CRBN incident planning are: The pre-hospital emergency medical services work in coordination with the Fire Department, Police and others National Security Forces. Decontamination and medical management of the victims are performed also by these pre-hospital emergency medical systems. Teams must have personal protective equipment and the training to use it. Rapid deployment of the nesecarry 150 IDRC DAVOS 2012 resources is key. Training is essential. No hospital in Spain has a CBRN system in place although worl is being done. This specific Procedure of performance For CBRN, the following aspects are considered: Immediate response Personal protection equipment in all units. Staff teaching and training on a regular basis given by specialists in the subjet. Work Procedure coordinated and training on a monthly basis. CBRN response is incorporated into daily activities: 1. Rapid deployment vehicle on duty 24/7. 2. On duty detection expert. 3. Personal Protective Equipment on all vehicles. Designatedbackpack ( “TURTLE BACKPACK”) that includes: 3 full masks with vapour and particles filters. 3 semi-masks with vapour and particle combine filter for sprinklings of non-agresive liquids and or particles to mucous areas. 3 autofilter elements for particles FFP-3 3 pairs of chemical protection glove 3 pairs of shoe covers 1 roll of tape to seal 3 isolating protective anti-splashing garments (level I) Training consists of theory and practical excersise. Monthly inter-institutional drill is conducted. Destection equipment is used in fires. Detection capacity for - CO, O2, HCN and explosive content.  The regional economic impact of catastrophe - case study on the China-Japan auto industry after the Great East Japan Earthquake  LI, Man; SHI, Peijun; FANG, Jian; NIE, Jianliang; YE, Tao  Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of  Presenting author: LI, Man  liman@mail.bnu.edu.cn  With the increasing pace of globalization, the international economy is getting closely inter-connected. As a result, the impact of catastrophes tends to transcend the border of countries and may induce regional or even global problem. Due to the complexity of global economy connection, the understanding of impacts between countries of catastrophe remains poor, which restricts the implement of large-scale disaster risk governance. This study uses the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake to explore the pathway by which the disaster affected China, and thus estimate the economic impact on China’s auto industry. The impact mainly consists of three aspects: 1) the decrease in the supply of the auto product and its core components; 2) the disruption of raw materials supply chain and withdrawl of investment from Japan of Sino-Japanese joint venture auto companies; 3) the decrease in the demand of intermediate product for automobile in the market of Japan. Damage data of Japanese auto industry, historical records on the import of intermediate goods for auto manufacturing from China to Japan and econometrical models are used to evaluate the influence of this event on the intermediate goods market in China. In addition to statistical data, a survey is conducted to acquire the information of the major Japanese auto seller in China and Sino-Japanese joint venture auto companies about the effect of this disaster, including total loss of these companies, duration of the effect, sectors that suffered the heaviest influence and other negative effects. This study will provide valuable insight for better understanding of the overall impacts of catastrophe in the context of globalization, especially on the industry, and help to work out effective coping strategies to achieve the international integrated risk management for catastrophe.  Keywords: the Great East Japan Earthquake, economic impact, auto industry, China  Integrated management of the mangrove forest ecosystem for improved climate resilience in Vietnam  LONG, Tran Kim  Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam  Presenting author: LONG, Tran Kim  longtk.htqt@mard.gov.vn  Vietnam is located in the tropical monsoon area - one of the five storm prone areas in the Asia Pacific region and is seen as one of the 5 countries in the world that are most vulnerable to sea level rise. Over the past 5 years, on average, disasters have resulted in the deaths of 400 people and caused economic losses of between 1 -1,5% of GDP. Therefore, the Government of Vietnam has paid great efforts to climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) while improving environmental management and community resilience. Under the Government’s political guidance, a comprehensive institutional and policy framework has been set up at both national and sub-national level and an integrated approach has been applied which includes coordinated interdisciplinary and participatory processes, where local communities are seen as the driving force. In particular, the natural protection function of mangrove forests can be used in CCA and DRR but mangroves are threatened by human impacts and by the impacts of climate change. The project “Management of Natural Resources in the Coastal Zone of Soc Trang Province” is testing innovative approaches to integrated management of mangrove forest ecosystem for improved CCA and DRR. The approach recognizes that planting alone is of little use and that newly planted mangroves must also be protected from human impacts such as destructive fishing methods. Innovative planting techniques which mimic natural regeneration, such as planting in high densities close to established trees, have been tested. Bamboo wave breakers and T-shaped fences which reduce erosion and stimulate sedimentation are used as a prerequisite for mangrove rehabilitation in erosion sites. Three years of co-management implementation has shown that co-management is an effective way of maintaining and enhancing the protection function of mangrove forests and at the same time providing livelihood for local communities.  Old issues, new approaches - public private partnerships for effective recovery and reconstruction  LOVE, Gavin John  WorleyParsons, United States of America  Presenting author: LOVE, Gavin John  gavin.love@worleyparsons.com  Media images and reporting portray recovery and reconstruction management to be chaotic, uncoordinated, inefficient and reactive. From the affected individual’s perspective, recovery and reconstruction can be seen to be a bureaucratic nightmare – no one knowing what is going on, or having to go to multiple support organizations for similar things. From the aid provider's and nation state's perspective, there can be a disconnect between the support required and the aid provided. Most fail to appreciate that recovery and reconstruction operations are not quickly resolved; they can continue for years and change over time. The organizations developed to manage these events have to be adaptable and innovative; but more importantly they have to ensure that the longer term objectives are foremost in the planning and delivery activities. The recovery and reconstruction activities required to manage the multitude of issues, stakeholders, specialists, contractors and well intentioned individuals are the same as those for managing complex projects. But we do not manage it as a complex project. The question is why don't we? A new platform for recovery and reconstruction management needs to be considered; a platform to that utilizes a privatepublic partnership to its best advantage. This platform recognizes that communities, business, and Government may no longer have sufficient resources and experience to deal with the complexity of recovery operations. Each may have expertise and knowledge in a specific area, however with the primary focus on response, there may be no longer sufficient “organizational knowledge” to structure, coordinate and manage the recovery, restoration and reconstruction activities. By using an example case, the development and implementation of the public-private partnership will be outlined and discussed. The efficiencies and effectiveness of the partnerships and framework in addressing the long term needs and requirements of nation states, communities and individuals will be demonstrated.  Keywords: Recovery Management, Public-Private Partnerships, Resilience, Sustainability  Occupational health of front line workers responding to earthquakes in New Zealand: workplace culturesvulnerability, resistance and resilience.  LOVELOCK, Kirsten Marina (1); MCBRIDE, David (1); SHEPHERD, Daniel (2); BILLINGTON, Rex (2)  1: University of Otago, New Zealand; 2: Auckland University of Technology  Presenting author: LOVELOCK, Kirsten Marina  kirsten.lovelock@otago.ac.nz  This paper draws on a cohort study being conducted by a multidisciplinary team which focuses on a range of front line workers in Christchurch, New Zealand responding to earthquakes since September 2010 and February 2011 when a 7.1 magnitude quake resulted in the loss of 186 lives and city devastation. The study explores occupational health outcomes for these workers while simultaneously following the health of their significant other support people. Temporality is often suspended in disaster research in relation to wider social and cultural relations. Yet of course responses by front line workers are embedded within a specific social and cultural history and what has happened and is happening at home and work shapes how they respond to these events. A reflection 151 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: front-line, workers, resistance, resilience  Informed response via satellite based technologies  MACINNES, Iain Hay  DigitalGlobe, United Kingdom  Presenting author: MACINNES, Iain Hay  imacinnes@digitalglobe.com  DigitalGlobe owns and operates the most agile and sophisticated constellation of high-resolution commercial earth imaging satellites. QuickBird, WorldView-1 and WorldView-2 together are capable of collecting over 500 million km2 of quality imagery per year with intraday revisit around the globe. Attending this presentation, you will learn how DigitalGlobe’s satellite constellation is used to monitor natural and manmade major disasters, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, tropical cyclones and fires. Digital Globe also monitors civil unrest, refugee displacement and military operation on a global scale. DigitalGlobe’s analysis team uses a number of international sources to quickly identify crisis events around the globe. Once identified, imagery of the affected areas is collected. Maintaining the largest commercial image library in the world enables us to compare pre and post event images to effectively determine the scale and impact of a disaster. DigitalGlobe’s FirstLook Service supports the rapid acquisition, processing and disseminating of imagery via our web based technologies. This presentation provides a brief overview of DigitalGlobe’s use of open source methodologies to improve response times for acquisition and delivery of very high resolution satellite imagery in the immediate aftermath of major disasters. It will highlight the need for alert based messaging formats to improve responsiveness.  Keywords: Emergency Management, Informed Response  Emergency Support System - ESS: System’s field tests  MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien  CEREN, FR  Presenting author: MANGIAVILLANO, Adrien  info@ess-project.eu 152  ESS project implements a series of tests in the field following pre-defined scenarios for validating several aspects of the system. The field trials are considered as the most attractive and effective dissemination and exploitation event of the ESS project. Due to the complex configuration of the prototype system there is a wide range of interested components that are tested and demonstrated in simulated or real conditions in the field with the involvement of operational actors. The field test of the ESS prototype allow familiarization with the ESS system and its components , on-hands experience to end-users, validation on the operational deployment and use of the platform in realistic situations, and feedback to the consortium as regards the end-users acceptance of the system itself. areas deemed suitable, and the ways that existing settlements in fire risk areas could be made less vulnerable. Specifically, it examines what elements of urban settlement morphology, in parallel with particular vegetation and topography types, impact upon bushfire risks to life and property; which risks can be ascribed to Australia’s existing and proposed settlements currently; and, how well extant settlement policy regulates and mitigates bushfire risks. This research has been used to develop an index of inter-related factors that can be used as an assessment tool for existing and proposed human settlements in bushfire prone areas. Comparison of the index to extant policy has allowed for critique and improvement of existing planning regulations, spatial policy and design guides. The results of this multi-scale approach give original elements to propose actions in terms of risk management, and develop a sustainable land use planning.  3D-simulation of integrated natural and man-made hazards  MARININ, Igor (1,2); KABANIKHIN, Sergey (2); MARCHUK, Andrey (2,3); KRIVOROTKO, Olga (3); KARAS, Adel (1); KHIDASHELI, David (1) There is a plan for implementing three different field tests of the ESS system during the years 2012 and 2013 in France. The respective scenarios include a fire in a forested area near the French-Italian borders (Vescavo pass), a flood event in the area of a crowded stadium (Nimes, FR) and a toxic substance release following a car accident in a road tunnel (Sisteron, FR). Several components (UAV, Air Baloon, UGV, wireless environmental sensors, IMSI catcher etc) are used during the tests and their integration to the ESS web platform is validated. Furthermore the integration of applications for traffic monitoring, toxic cloud dispersion, forest fire propagation etc is demonstrated during the tests. Operating ESS under different scenarios is needed in order to test the system’s capabilities in different kinds of crises using a variety of data sources and relevant systems and applications. Two of these field tests performed during the first semester of 2012 have provided several results and lessons learned for potential users of the ESS system which will be presented and discussed during this session.  Human settlement indices for bushfire risk in Australia  MARCH, Alan Peter (1); GROENHART, Lucy (1); LEONARD, Justin (2)  The multirisk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGM  MARÇOT, Nathalie; MIRGON, Carola  In the context of increasing fire risks resulting from climate change, metropolitan areas in Australia are growing quickly. This growth is exposing increasing numbers of houses to bushfire threats. There is a need for improved bushfire assessment tools at the local and strategic planning level, for existing and proposed settlements to ensure that new housing is appropriately located and designed. In addition, existing settlements facing high fire risks can be improved. Current design guides tend to focus on individual buildings, giving little comprehensive attention to the arrangements of settlements overall, a form of maladaptation that may actually encourage increased amounts of settlement in areas of high bushfire incidence. This analysis on two municipalities subject to many hazards (Allos and Castellane) aims to propose a comprehensive methodology in order to study more in detail these areas using existing documents such as hazard maps from Risk Prevention Planning, and to consider also the historical events associated with the hazards to study the possible impacts.  We describe mathematical models of tsunami propagation and earthquakes. We use numerical simulation for modeling long wave’s propagation, tsunami runup, solving inverse problems, estimation of risk and losses. New mathematical approaches and software allowed arranging database management and the entire destruction scenario visualization. New approaches and strategies as well as mathematical tools and software are to be shown. The long joint investigations by researches of Institute of Mathematical Geophysics and Computational Mathematics SB RAS and specialists from WAPMERR and Informap allow to produce a special theoretical approaches, numerical methods and software for tsunami and earthquake modeling (for example, modeling of propagation and runup of tsunami waves on coastal areas), visualization, risk estimation of tsunami, earthquakes, and other hazards. The algorithms of the operational calculations of the origin and forms of the tsunami source are developed. The system TSS (Tsunami Seismic Source) numerically simulates the source of tsunami and/or earthquake and includes a possibility to solve the direct and the inverse problem [1]. It becomes possible to involve advanced mathematical results to improve models and to increase the resolution of the inverse problems. Using TSS one can construct maps of risks, the online scenario of disasters, estimation of potential damage of buildings and roads. One of the main tools for the numerical modeling is the finite volume method which allows us to achieve stability with respect to insertion errors, as well as the optimum computing speed [2]. The developed software system is planned to create technology "no frost", realizing a steady stream of direct and inverse problems: solving the direct problem, the visualization and comparison with data from sensing, solving the inverse problem (correction of the model parameters). The main objective of further work is the creation of workstation operating emergency duty close to real situations.  1: University of Melbourne; 2: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)  Presenting author: MARCH, Alan Peter  alanpm@unimelb.edu.au The paper reports on new research in Australia developing indices of human settlement fire vulnerability, allowing broad analysis of existing and proposed settlements in fire prone areas. The suitability indices assist in determining the best locations for growth, the best patterns of urban growth in  Keywords: Bushfire, urban, planning, indices, Australia  BRGM, France  Presenting author: MARÇOT, Nathalie  n.marcot@brgm.fr  The “Pays A3V” (Asse - Verdon - Vaïre - Var), located in the Alpes de Haute-Provence (southeast of France), is engaged in a process of sustainable development which aims to control, in particular, the land use evolution. This alpine land is particularly subject to major natural hazards which stay poorly known (landslide, torrential floods, forest fires, earthquakes…). The objectives of this study are 1) an analysis of global risks across the country, through a cartographic atlas, and multihazards analysis (at scale 1/50000), 2) a multi risk analysis (at 1/25000) concerning two cities located in high-risk area, and 3) a proposal of risk management policy. The multi-phenomenon analysis illustrates the comprehensive problem on the “Pays A3V” and the superposition of several hazards (up to 9 bunk hazards) on the same location is a strong marker (number of hazard issues on important areas, concentrations of population in the valleys…). An investigation on impacts and damage has been carried out to identify, describe and evaluate each type of injury (physical and functional) and its consequences (impact). Each item physically assigned (person, properties, environment) is considered as generating a functional disorder (housing, education, transport) which itself causes impacts on different topics (social, economic, environmental). Cross-analysis at communal scale, of hazards, issues and vulnerabilities have been made by categories of issues and type of damage depending touristic period.  1: Wapmerr, Switzerland; 2: Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Russian Federation; 3: Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation  Presenting author: KABANIKHIN, Sergey  kabanikhin@sscc.ru  Keywords: Natural hazards, man-maid hazards, tsunami, earthquake, 3D GIS, numerical modelling, loss assessment, forecast, historical data collection  DRR in fragile context (Afghanistan)  MARTHALER, Esther  Helvetas Swiss Intercooepration  Presenting author: MARTHALER, Esther  esther.marthaler@helvetas.org  HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation has particularly gained experience in the field of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in a fragile context through its DRR project in Afghanistan 153 Oral presentations on the recruitment and retention process demonstrates clearly that culturally embedded and socially entrenched contentious labour relations for some of the front line workers in particular firefighters play a significant role in how they have responded and coped with the earthquakes. For some workers, shifting perceptions of danger and blame underpin workplace culture and their calculations of risk. This tension with respect to labour relations leads to resistance toward their workplace conditions and their employers. At this stage it appears that resistance to workplace conditions and employers may in the short term assist resilience amongst some of these workers by reinforcing the collective and insularity and ensuring that workplace conditions remain an internal and addressable threat. In contrast, the on-going earthquakes as natural disasters are easily externalised, and with respect to temporality, as the earthquakes come they are quickly put behind them. Whereas industrial unease is on-going, relentless and unresolved. The question is: Is the vulnerability which underpins the resistance a sustainable response in an environment of lost workplaces, temporary quarters, lost homes and an uncertain landscape? IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 IDRC DAVOS 2012 In addition to achieving the expected results, a key element in both projects, was the active participation of staff in each local authority. This led to increased awareness of disaster reduction, which spread to other local entities that were not part of the projects. The implementation of DRR in a fragile context requires an even more careful risk assessment in order to fully understand the root causes of vulnerability and to develop DRR sensitive measures. The Sustainable Livelihood Approach is a favorable tool to support risk reduction and strengthen all the six assets that contribute to sustainable livelihoods, making them also more resilient. The relationship of the two topics is mutually reinforcing. If we do not consider conflict and fragility when working on DRR, we may reinforce tensions and have an adverse effect on conflict leading to a vicious circle. Identifying the relationships between different stakeholders and their burning issues, we can facilitate local decisionmaking processes and bridge divisions between competing groups that produce suitable interventions to mitigate disaster risks and at the same time build trust and resilience. The joint approach tackles the root causes of vulnerability and contributes positively to development benefits in the immediate term, risk and vulnerability reduction in the long term. A joint approach contributes to shape the conditions for incremental and transformational changes. DRR measures should build on and strengthen existing tendencies for positive change and social resilience within a society and foster trust. The recently developed 3-step guide by HSI in collaboration with the Center of Peacebuilding (KOFF) allows for an analysis in a more systematic manner.  Participation and reduction of local disasters  MARTÍN, Sebastián (1); DORTA, Pedro (2); ROMERO, Carmen (2); MAYER, Pablo (3); DÍAZ, Jaime (4)  1: City of Santa Cruz Tenerife, Spain, Kingdom of; 2: University of La Laguna, Spain, Kingdom of; 3: University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain, Kingdom of; 4: Complutense University of Madrid, Spain, Kingdom of  Presenting author: MARTÍN, Sebastián  s_marper@yahoo.es  Hereby we would like to present the results of two research projects aimed at disaster reduction at the local level. In the first project, we analyzed the risk management in eleven cities in Latin America and Europe, through the Disaster Risk Management Index (DRMi). This method was developed by a program of the Inter-American Development Bank, and used in twelve countries and two cities in Latin America and the Caribbean. The second project was to provide advice to nine cities in the Canary Islands (Spain) for the preparation of their emergency plans. The research was funded by the "UrbAl" programme of the European Union, the City of Santa Cruz Tenerife (Spain) and the Department of Security and Emergency of the Government of the Canary Islands (Spain). 154  Keywords: Disaster reduction; participation; local scale; risk management; emergency plans. Rebuilding Cities after crises: Lessons learnt from urban disaster and conflicts Ansa MASAUD UN-Habitat, Nairobi, Kenya  Presenting author: MASAUD, Ansa  Ansa.Masaud@unhabitat.org Urban disasters have a profound effect on local, regional, national and global socio-economic life. In 2011 alone, the cost of these is estimated at over $380 billion with the largest impacts in Christchurch, New Zealand, Sendai Province in Japan, and Bangkok and the delta regions surrounding it. The impacts of these events were not only felt within the countries they occurred: tangential impacts occurred throughout the affected countries, and around the world. Haiti earthquake in 2010 amplified the challenges humanitarians are facing in responding to emergencies in urban contexts. The latest wave of violence and conflict in Syria and Libya and ongoing humanitarian conflicts in Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan all demonstrate huge gaps in policies, tools, knowledge, coordination and approaches, which are based on rural and camp settings. While some of humanitarian organizations are exploring new methodologies for working within cities, relatively few have built internal capacity to function efficiently and effectively outside the rural theaters where current systems of delivery have been refined over the past decades where humanitarian work has concentrated. UN-Habitat is strengthening its capacity to provide support to these and other agencies, primarily through the InterAgency Standing Committee (IASC) representing much of the humanitarian community. Our Organization’s key comparative advantage is our ability to field competent urban systems professionals to provide such support to other humanitarian agencies through an advisory function. The presentation will highlight lessons learnt from the agency’s engagement in responding to crises in urban contexts and present the ongoing work to strengthen this area within the IASC.  Understanding and Measuring Urban Resilience: A new UN-Habitat's initiative  MASAUD, Ansa  UN-Habitat, Nairobi, Kenya  Presenting author: MASAUD, Ansa  Ansa.Masaud@unhabitat.org  The cost of urban disasters during 2011 alone is estimated at over $380 billion with the largest impacts felt in Christchurch, New Zealand; Sendai Province in Japan, and Bangkok and environs. The social and economic impact on these cities was not only felt within the immediate areas, but also nationally and globally. With 50% of the world’s population already in cities and substantial projected urban population increases over the coming decades, the rationale for new tools and approaches that strengthen the capacity of local administrations and citizens to better protect human, economic and natural assets of our towns and cities is strong. While advances are being made in shifting emphasis from risk reduction to resilience, no means of calibrating urban resilience has been developed to date leaving city and town administrations understanding only what their inherent vulnerabilties may be. There remain gaps to discuss in strategies and tools to ensure cities actually do become measurably more resilient. The primary justification for the URI Programme (URIP) therefore is developing an integrated forward planning urban systems approach founded on the principles of ‘resilience’ that dynamically underpin improved capacity to protect urban citizens and their assets and recover from all hazards. ‘Urban Resilience’ refers to the ability of any urban system, to withstand and recover quickly from ‘catastrophic events.’ The URIP fills a large gap providing forward-looking, integrated, multi-hazard multi-stakeholder, urban systems approach to planning and developing urban settlements.  Keywords: Urban Resilience, measuring resilience  Climate change, natural resources, institution and the value of research from a global to a local perspective in Mwanga district Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania  MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade  LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of  Presenting author: MASCARENHAS, Adolfo Caridade  mascar@udsm.ac.tz  Three years of multidisciplinary research, by a team of researchers from the USA and Tanzania, funded by the National Science Foundation, on climate change and its impact on the livelihoods of people in Mwanga district Kilimanjaro region has shed light on the efforts by communities to cope and to adapt to changes. The limitations of generalized conventional approaches to “”fix” climate change problems through, adaptation and mitigation formulas contrasts with the more dynamic approaches of several segments of the communities. This presentation highlights only three preliminary observations. First, it exposes the existing and underlying causes of risks and vulnerabilities. Secondly the conventional generalized almost monopolistic adaptation approaches have limitations which must be recognized and corrective action is not an option but a necessity. Thirdly, what also emerges are the need to relook and pay attention to resources, such as water, space, “forests” all of which have been so much taken for granted. A forest for instance is more than trees. Within this context the links between national and local institutions, and the communities assume a new significance. Since “climate change” has an impact on all sectors it means incorporating improved flows of information, better use of science and a reassessment of who gains and who losses in resource utilization. There are compelling reasons that transparency and responsibility of reconfigured both private and public institutions could bring several improvements. Actions should not be anchored on formulas but on equitable and sustainable development; reduce risks of social conflicts. Solutions should minimize disasters, create opportunities, for the use of both local and scientific knowledge to logically address constraints. Attention to intergenerational knowledge use and integrated participatory approaches would provide a stable platform to address present and future problem of changes.  Keywords: Kilimanjaro, Mwanga District, Resource Benefits,. Participation, Knowledge.  How do different geohazards affect mortality and economic losses?  MCADOO, Brian G.; KRENITSKY, Nicole; AUGENSTEIN, Jared; ZELTZER, Matthew  Yale-NUS College, Singapore  Presenting author: MCADOO, Brian G.  brmcadoo@vassar.edu  In 2010, a Ms=7.0 earthquake hit the Haitian capital of Portau-Prince causing an estimated 316,000 deaths along with $8B USD in economic losses in a struggling economy with a $7B USD gross domestic product. Also in 2010, a heat wave in Russia resulted in a high death toll (55,000) and $400M USD in economic losses. These two events in nations with disparate vulnerabilities led us to expand the scope to all disasters between 2000 and 2010 and ask, how do the physical nature hazards affect mortality and economic loss in countries with different levels of wealth? Previous studies show how economic losses and mortality affect low income countries during disasters, and how income generation responds to disasters. To understand how vulnerabilities are exploited by the physical nature of different types of hazards (seismic, geomorphic and atmospheric), we examine patterns of economic loss and mortality in countries with varying income levels for earthquakes, storms, mass movements, extreme temperatures, floods, drought and wildfires. We find that losses from earthquakes, storms, and floods follow the prescribed notion that natural disasters cause more deaths in low income nations and greater economic losses in higher income nations. Extreme temperatures and wildfires, however, affect high income countries almost exclusively while mass movements and drought generate greater losses for low-income nations. Public and private investment in disaster risk reduction (DRR) must consider how hazards cause damage, and how investments aimed at reinforcing vulnerabilities in low through high income nations can be made more effective. DRR spending at the national level may be misallocated leading to unnecessary loss of life and money, so there is a clear need to determine how governments invest in reducing risk. Only by taking a country and disaster-specific approach will governments and private entities be able to minimize their risk.  Keywords: disaster, losses, statistics, economic, mortality  A community-driven approach to material management in post-disaster reconstruction  MCGRATH, Riona; VON MEDING, Jason; OYEDELE, Lukumon  Queen's University Belfast, United Kingdom  Presenting author: VON MEDING, Jason  j.vonmeding@qub.ac.uk  It has been said that a major disaster compacts 20 years of rebuilding into a few years of reconstruction, presenting 155 Oral presentations where it won the renowned Swiss-Re Resource award. In collaboration with local authorities and communities, HSI implements the program in Northern provinces of Afghanistan whose goal is to contribute to improved livelihoods of poor rural population by reducing flood risks and increasing longterm land productivity.
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 inherent environmental and social, impacts and risks (DRM, 2011). Those involved in initial response are faced with shortages of resources for short and long term construction as well as an abundance of structural debris to handle. The rapid response to reconstruction efforts demanded can compromise the standard of building to meet the immediate need and neglect the opportunity to transform materials which may appear initially as obstacles into a positive contribution to recovery. Measures must be in place to ensure that, while aiming to meet the construction need as rapidly as possible, the performance potential of materials is maximised, thus improving pre-disaster building standards and reducing the risk of re-occurring disaster impacts. While post-disaster reconstruction offers this opportunity to explore the improvement of existing building practices and materials, new concepts must be balanced against local skills, cultures, and long-term development (Silva, 2010). This form of informed response demands a high quantity of up-to-date and relevant information relating to the post-disaster scenario and the local context ensuring reconstruction efforts are driven by communities’ long term, as well as immediate, resources and capabilities as these will, in the end, be what sustains them. The paper focuses on the issues surrounding the management of materials specific to a post-disaster reconstruction context, exploring an approach that is driven by the resources that remain, seeking to enhance their performance by access to wider sources of knowledge and supplies. It aims to provide guidance for humanitarian reconstruction contributors by outlining these key issues and exploring a community-driven approach that would address them. Such a strategy would ensure communities are empowered by development of their construction capabilities as well as the physical structures that they inhabit. knowledge gaps and recommendations  MEYER, Volker (1); BECKER, Nina (1); MARKANTONIS, Vasileios (1); SCHWARZE, Reimund (1); AERTS, Jeroen C. J. H. (2); VAN DEN BERGH, Jeroen C. J. M. (3); BOUWER, Laurens M. (2); BUBECK, Philip (4); CIAVOLA, Paolo (5); DANIEL, Vanessa (2); GENOVESE, Elisabetta (6); GREEN, Colin (7); HALLEGATTE, Stéphane (6); KREIBICH, Heidi (4); LEQUEUX, Quentin (5); LOCHNER, Bernhard (8); LOGAR, Ivana (3); PAPYRAKIS, Elissaios (2); PFURTSCHELLER, Clemens (8); POUSSIN, Jennifer (2); PRZYLUSKI, Valentin (6); THIEKEN, Annegret H. (8,9); THOMPSON, Paul (7); VIAVATTENE, Christophe (7)  The Protection of environmental refugees through international public law  MEUTSCH, Anja The CONHAZ (Costs of Natural Hazards) project aimed to compile and synthesise current knowledge on cost assessment methods in order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management and adaptation planning. In order to achieve this, CONHAZ has adopted a comprehensive approach, considering natural hazards ranging from droughts, floods and coastal hazards to Alpine hazards, as well as different impacted sectors and cost types (direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and costs of risk mitigation). Its specific objectives have been 1) to compile the state-of-the-art methods for cost assessment; 2) to analyse and assess these methods in terms of technical aspects, as well as terminology, data quality and availability, and research gaps; and 3) to synthesise resulting knowledge into recommendations and to identify further research needs.  Keywords: materials, post-disaster, reconstruction, community  University Cologne, Germany  Presenting author: MEUTSCH, Anja  anja.meutsch@uni-koeln.de  International law must adapt itself to the realities of its age. One of the most pressing of these realities is the phenomenon of the so called “environmental refugees”. The particular question which needs to be addressed is whether the protection of "environmental refugees" is already sufficiently provided for in today’s international law or whether the "refugees" are facing a legal gap? This question, in turn, returns us to such basic questions as: What is international law? How is it created? How does or could it solve specific social problems like the protection of environmental refugees? And if there is no protective international law concerning environmental refugees currently, how could the creation of such a law adequately address the issue? Can law provide a solution at all? Or are there other, possibly, better options to address the matter? The present study tries to provide a foundation in order to explore the particular question.  Keywords: Climate Change and Migration, Displacement, Environmental Refugees  Cost assessment of natural hazards – state-of-the-art, 156  1: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research- UFZ; 2: Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamIVM-VU; 3: Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona- ICTA-UAB; 4: German Research Centre for Geosciences- GFZ; 5: Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Ferrara- UniFe; 6: Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines/ Centre International de Recherches sur l'Environnement et le Développement- SMASH-CIRED; 7: Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University- FHRC-MU; 8: Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Austria- UIBK; 9: University of Potsdam, Germany  Presenting author: BECKER, Nina  Nina.Becker@ufz.de  Effective and efficient reduction of, or adaptation to, natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards in order to develop sustainable risk management strategies. The current methods that assess the costs of different natural hazards employ a diversity of terminologies and approaches for different hazards and impacted sectors. This makes it difficult to arrive at robust, comprehensive and comparable cost figures. This presentation summarises the main results of CONHAZ. These comprise findings regarding best practices, overall knowledge gaps and recommendations for practice and research as well as a vision on cost assessments of natural hazards and their integration in decision making. The presentation will give an overview on general as well as hazard- specific findings and outline the recommendations that include issues such as comprehensiveness, uncertainties, improvement of data sources, improvement of methods, future dynamics of risk, distribution of risks and risk transfer, knowledge exchange, as well as cost assessment as decision support.  Keywords: natural hazards, cost assessment, mitigation, adaptation, risk management  Private sector-civil society partnership opportunities for resilience building  MITCHELL, Andrew  Disaster Risk Management Consultant, France  Presenting author: MITCHELL, Andrew  boriswankovich@hotmail.com  There is a strong historical background of the private sector working with local communities and civil society groups in response to major disasters across all continents. However, all parties increasingly recognise the need to engage in more organised and strategic partnerships over a longer time period between increasingly cyclical disaster events. This is done in order to maximise and protect investments in communities and business, and to more effectively use resources to build the resilience of community and business systems to disaster. There are increasing efforts to link the private sector and civil society at regional and national levels across different sectors, recognising the professionalism, economic modelling and management, research and resources of the private sector coupled with the demonstrated impact, understanding and operational capacity of civil society at the local level. Building resilience for communities means protecting, strengthening and diversifying how people manage their livelihoods. For this to work, this means coordinated action across multiple sectors involving partnerships between communities, civil society, private sector and the government. In particular, there are opportunities and examples for partnerships that analyse and forecast risk; for social protection (transfer of cash or resources), the use of financial services, and of offsetting risk with microinsurance; reinforcing value chains/logistics, infrastructure and services (construction, water and sanitation, shelter and provision of food); logistics; conventional and alternative energy; telecommunications and marketing; and, human resources training and management. Partnerships between the private sector and civil society can be harnessed via bilateral partnerships, consortia and specific platforms (or coordination groups) from the local to the global level.  Integrative disaster risk management: case study from India on social and economic re-construction”  MITRA, Swati; GULATI, Naresh (,)  MICRO INSURANCE ACADEMY, India, Republic of  Presenting author: MITRA, Swati  swati.g.mitra@gmail.com  Eminent Sociologist Karl Mannheim known for “sociology of planned re-construction” comes close to the contemporary chaos in disaster management prevailing all over the world. Mannheim speaks of “democratic planning” which is not economic planning alone but, overall social re-construction! In his book “diagnosis of our time” he says, “the great psychological and sociological problem in the future is (...) how to organize inarticulate masses and crowds into various forms of groups.”In other words, with climate change being a reality and consequent rise in natural disasters impacting the developed and developing countries there is an urgent need to “re-construct” the social system into an integrated system to tackle such emergencies. As per the Global Assessment Report," Countries report little progress in mainstreaming disaster risk reduction considerations into social, economic, urban, environmental and infrastructural planning and development."The HFA principles and MDGs provide the guiding principles to every nation in the world that has led to the formation of national disaster management bodies whose mandate is to formulate the national disaster management plan but the challenge to convert these plans into implementable and operational plan remains to be addressed. This paper seeks to present two successful case studies from the world’s largest democracy – the Indian federal states of Rajasthan and Haryana.Through their state disaster management plans an attempt has been made to “reconstruct” the “response mechanism” in Rajasthan that integrates the chain of command beginning from the chief minister of state to the village head in the community. Haryana adopted a financial mechanism on the lines of the UNOCHA Central Emergency Relief Fund that makes funds available within seven minutes to any far-flung village in-case of emergency. The underlying factor was to bring standardization amongst the authorities to tackle the masses through these mechanisms for a coordinated response at every level and effective recovery towards building a resilient society. Keywords: Integrative Disaster Risk Management,Framework  Global perspective on seismic risk reduction and resilient disaster reconstruction  MIYAMOTO, H Kit; GILANI, Amir S  Miyamoto International, United States of America  Presenting author: MIYAMOTO, H Kit  kmiyamoto@miyamotointernational.com  Worldwide, nearly 40% of the largest cities and hundreds of millions of people live in areas that can experience major earthquakes, resulting in large of casualties, interruption of lifelines, and placing large burden on the regional and national economy. Earthquakes in Haiti, Christchurch and East Japan have had long-term impact on societies. The 2010 Haiti Earthquake affected 3 million people and has still left over 300,000 displaced. An unprecedented reconstruction, incorporating local materials and masons but based on international earthquake-resistant principals, is currently underway to repair and strengthen 120,000 damaged buildings and allows people to return to safe homes and produce a seismically resilient community in this developing country. The 2011 earthquakes effecting Japan and New Zealand showed the need for seismic risk mitigation in developed countries. In New Zealand, older and newer buildings were damaged. The damage to newer buildings is not unexpected because the modern building codes intend is life safety and not resilient communities. Over 50% of 2400 buildings in the city center required demolition. Over $20 billion insurance loss is expected, resulting in a drop in the insurance capacity to be dropped and threatening the national investment environment. This issue is currently under discussion with the goal of reducing seismic risk for the existing buildings using high performance seismic protective devices. In Japan, large earthquake and tsunami were expected. However, the M9 East Japan earthquake caused a much higher Tsunami which overcame the sea walls and devastated over 500 km 157 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: Earthquakes, Risk reduction, Reselinet reconstruction, Privatre-public partnership, Advanced engineering  Risk Management of Natural Disasters in Morocco: a project of Global and Integrated Strategy  MOHAMED, Tabyaoui  Government of Morocco  Presenting author: MOHAMED, Tabyaoui  tabyaoui@affaires-generales.gov.ma  Morocco as the rest of the countries is faced with potentially extreme events, due to the number of natural phenomena. These risks are currently managed by many departments. In order to overcome this fragmented management and better coordinate the efforts of various departments, the Government with support from the World Bank and the Swiss Cooperation has launched in 2009 the project of preparing a comprehensive and integrated strategy for managing natural risk reduction in Morocco. The preparation of such a strategy must go with a phase of identification and assessment of these risks before developing the legal and institutional structure beside the financial resources for the risk strategy implementation. A probabilistic study has been finalized by June 2012 and has been incorporated in GIS based software. This model aims to assess the exposure to natural disasters in Morocco and the possible consequences on populations, strategic infrastructure and the economy. Initially extreme events considered by this model are droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and landslides. The probabilistic model is developed directly with the technical ministries as part of a participatory approach to prepare with each of them several scenarios that will both identify with sufficient precision the sectors exposure levels and also identify preventive measures that could be implemented to reduce vulnerability in each sector. The various scenarios are then aggregated nationally to make informed choices and to prepare a comprehensive and integrated national strategy for prevention and risk management of natural disasters. This program will enable Morocco to better anticipate natural risks, prepare the necessary budget and therefore better control the impacts of extreme events.  Keywords: Country Risk Management, DRR Strategy, Morocco, Risk Assessment  The role of local actors for creating effective risk governance culture  MOLIN-VALDES, Helena  United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)  Presenting author: MOLIN-VALDES, Helena 158  molinvaldes@un.org  Social media is playing a key role in advancing messages in a community. Political leaders have recognized the impact and speed from using such tools and reaching a broader audience. A redefined “risk governance culture” is emerging, a more informed community who in return will demand better responses to its political leaders. The role of international organizations to channel information and findings to a wider public other than national governments in an accessible and practical way is only growing. Communities and their local leaders are enthusiastic to participate in this information exchange leading to their social progress. UNISDR and its Making Cities Resilient campaign aims to reach a variety of local actors, to foster dialogue and partnerships amongst the different sectors of society, collectively discussing better ways to build a more effective risk governance culture. The campaign offers tools to guide processes and start reflecting on how to put together the different local actors in one collective framework with a single strategy to reduce risk and reinforcing the risk governance culture.  Agricultural risk micro-insurance product for Mozambique  MORTGAT, Christian P. (1); STOJANOVSKI, Pane (2); BOISSONNADE, Auguste C. (2); BERNHARDT, Alex (3)  1: Risk Management Solutions, Inc.; 2: Asia Risk Centre, Inc.; 3: Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC  Presenting author: STOJANOVSKI, Pane  pane.stojanovski@asiariskcentre.com  Agricultural insurance in developing countries is high on the public policy agenda. There have been great efforts by FAO, IFC, World Bank, regional banks, NGOs and others to launch a number of weather index based schemes for agricultural insurance based on the ease of administering these programs and fast payouts. The work presented in this paper has been collaboration between risk management solutions, Asia Risk Centre, and Guy Carpenter under a grant from the International Financial Corporation IFC (grant # 579027). The authors gratefully acknowledge the support and the funding of the project by IFC. Weather based indices ideally require densely spaced weather stations. In the case of many developing countries, Mozambique specifically in this case, face significant data challenges. The country only has 113 stations in 69 districts, while 73 districts are without stations. The problem is addressed by using additional data sources (reanalyzed gridded data), remote sensing data, and their integration in the risk assessment and product development. Limitations and assumptions in development of this data is also taken into account. Basis risk and its asymmetrical distribution are also issues with the highest impacts being on individual policies and primary layers and much smaller impacts on the higher reinsurance layers. This paper summarizes the approaches and issues in developing index based solutions under the severe constraints of low quality data, short and incomplete time series and ways how these issues have been addressed. The underlying conclusion of the paper is that risk quantification and product design for microinsurance is not a micro modeling exercise, on the contrary it involves the use of different methodologies and combinations of technologies to resolve these challenges. Proposals are made to alleviate some of the key issues.  Keywords: Microinsurance, Agricultural Risk, Mozambique  Beyond pandemics: a whole of society approach to disaster preparedness  MOSSELMANS, Michael Lodowick  World Food Programme, Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: MOSSELMANS, Michael Lodowick  michael.mosselmans@wfp.org  Lessons can be learned and applied from pandemic preparedness to multi-hazard preparedness. Towards a Safer World is an inter-agency process that identified lessons and practices from pandemic preparedness that have relevance for other emerging infectious diseases; low-frequency, highimpact events; and complex, unpredictable, slow-onset disasters which impact multiple countries and sectors. 5 prominent lessons are: 1. The value of a whole of society approach. Pandemic requires a concerted, collaborative effort that brings together the experience and resources of government, civil society, business, media and military. 2. Fear of pandemic stimulated advances in business continuity planning and contingency planning. We came to understand the importance of planning to deal with the impact of a disaster on our own organisations’ ability to function. BCP strengthens resilience to all threats. 3. We developed experience of the value of simulation and table-top exercises. These improve communications, identify impacts on critical services, clarify roles and raise awareness. They serve as a springboard for subsequent actions. They are important for testing plans and identifying gaps and weaknesses. 4. We learnt a lot about communications. Timely sharing of effective public messaging is essential to sustain public confidence and reduce the risk of disorder. New social media tools are increasingly important. Risk communication is not sufficient. It needs to be accompanied by social mobilization, dialogue with communities and behaviour change communication which takes account of different perceptions of risk and cultural barriers to change. 5. The disruption a severe pandemic would cause to communications and services points to the importance of communities being ready to fend for themselves in areas of hygiene, food security, healthcare and resumption of incomegeneration. We should prioritise empowering communities and include them in planning for preparedness and response. A proportion of available resources should focus on building the capacity of sub-national stakeholders.  Keywords: pandemic preparedness, business continuity planning, whole-of-society readiness  Management of the continuity services in water infrastructure (case study: emergency drinking water management in Tehran metropolitan)  MOZAFARI, Abdollah; JEDDI, Seyed Majid; MOHAMMADI, Sakineh; JALALI, Gholam Reza  Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), Iran, Islamic Republic of  Presenting author: MOHAMMADI, Sakineh  sakinehm.1357@gmail.com  The earthquake's risk in Tehran metropolitan has been evaluated very high according to the geographical and geophysical situation, active faults around the city and also historical earthquake. An overview on these historical earthquakes in Iran shows that Tehran with the old name Rey has been destroyed with major earthquake several times. Event of an earthquake in Tehran, all the infrastructures like water supply network would have some direct damages. The secondary damages like changes in the water quality, disability of the firefighting stations, and shortage of safe water in hospitals and emergency settlement camp and also providing drinking water are among the greatest challenges after the earthquake. After the earthquake, continuity of water services and recovery network phase is the most important action and the priority goal in subsystems of treatment, storage and distribution and transfer water supply. The demand from drinking water to sanitary use will increase day by day in disaster situation. Regarding Tehran's population that is about 8 million people, "the emergency drinking water management in Tehran metropolitan" for emergency cases definitely needs planning and preparation in advanced. In order to guarantee the consecutive services in water supply network and ensuring of the needed amount of water in any situation, the necessity of a strategy based "Multilayer Water Supply Network (MWSN)" to manage the drinking water in emergency cases is clear. This paper is a case study on Tehran metropolitan based on the population density, existence water network, reservoir and wells distribution, vulnerability of the water network and also the local access which have been used to assess the main need of the water in the first 45 days after the earthquake for 375 Tehran's different boroughs (Mahaleh), using GIS and the methods of emergency water provide.  Keywords: Emergency Drinking Water -water Continuity services water infrastructure- multilayer water supply network- earthquake  Annualized catastrophe mortalities and driving long term risk reduction  MUIR-WOOD, Robert  RMS Ltd, United Kingdom  Presenting author: MUIR-WOOD, Robert  robertm@rms.com  While a range of mortality statistics can readily be compared across countries worldwide for infant mortality, death in childbirth, or deaths from HIV (etc.) the extreme tail characteristics of natural catastrophes makes it impossible to compare equivalent catastrophe mortality statistics. However, use of casualty catastrophe loss models, calibrated against actual casualty statistics for that territory and set of perils (including the relevant local exposures and vulnerabilities) provides a means to generate 'average annualized casualty' information that can become the equivalent of other annualized mortality metrics. To generate such consistent data worldwide, countries should be assisted, and where appropriate, audited with an internationally consistent approach to modeling. Having achieved an internationally consistent catastrophe casualty metric (the 'annual expected % mortality from natural catastrophe') it becomes possible to rank countries and better prioritize assistance. Each high risk country could then be assigned a long term target of 159 Oral presentations of coast line with major cities. The process of recovery and reconstruction has begun using commercial sector causing an economic boom. The observations show the need for: systematic seismic risk reduction especially in developing countries, understanding the limitations building codes, c) reconstruction by activating commercial sector: A resilient and economically vibrant society can arise from tragedies IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: catastrophe loss model, catastrophe mortality statistics, cost benefit analysis, extreme tail risk,  Cultural Role in Risk and Disaster Management, A case study from Uganda, Africa  MUKASA, Abass  Kampala Capital City Authority  Presenting author: MUKASA, Abass  chiefadvisor@africamail.com  As the world’s largest humanitarian relief and development network, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has significant knowledge and experience in implementing community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) programmes. Building safe and resilient communities is at the heart of these CBDRR programmes. The humanitarian relief and recovery operation following the Tsunami in 2004 provided IFRC with a unique opportunity to analyze the two key challenges in implementation of its programmes; a) to gauge how we articulate resilience in a meaningful way to the target communities of CBDRR programmes and the CBDRR practitioners and b) to identify the critical factors conducive to the achievement of the needed impact and sustainability in implementing CBDRR programmes in support of resilience building. To this end, IFRC commissioned an in-depth study of CBDRR programmes to define the characteristics of resilient communities and the key determinants of successful CBDRR programmes. This study was carried out by the ARUP International Development(1) in 2010-2011. Drawing on documentation from the Tsunami Operation, broad-ranging literature review and participatory research in more than 30 communities, the study defined a safe and resilient community as: 1) Being knowledgeable and healthy, 2) Being organized, 3) Being connected, 4) Having infrastructure and services, 5) Having economic opportunities, 6) Being able to manage its natural assets. (1) Arup International Development operates as a non-profit group within the Arup 160 Group Ltd. (www.arup.com/internationaldevelopment)  Characteristics of safe and resilient communities and key determinants of successful disaster risk reduction programmes  MUKHIER, Mohammed Omer  Community Preparedness and Risk Reduction Department, IFRC  Presenting author: MUKHIER, Mohammed Omer  mohammedomer.mukhier@ifrc.org  As the world’s largest humanitarian relief and development network, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has significant knowledge and experience in implementing community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) programmes. Building safe and resilient communities is at the heart of these CBDRR programmes. The humanitarian relief and recovery operation following the Tsunami in 2004 provided IFRC with a unique opportunity to analyze the two key challenges in implementation of its programmes; a) to gauge how we articulate resilience in a meaningful way to the target communities of CBDRR programmes and the CBDRR practitioners and b) to identify the critical factors conducive to the achievement of the needed impact and sustainability in implementing CBDRR programmes in support of resilience building. To this end, IFRC commissioned an in-depth study of CBDRR programmes to define the characteristics of resilient communities and the key determinants of successful CBDRR programmes. This study was carried out by the ARUP International Development(1) in 2010-2011. Drawing on documentation from the Tsunami Operation, broad-ranging literature review and participatory research in more than 30 communities, the study defined a safe and resilient community as: 1) Being knowledgeable and healthy, 2) Being organized, 3) Being connected, 4) Having infrastructure and services, 5) Having economic opportunities, 6) Being able to manage its natural assets. (1) Arup International Development operates as a non-profit group within the Arup Group Ltd. (www.arup.com/internationaldevelopment)  Keywords: resilience characteristics, risk reduction, humitarian relief  Critical infrastructure disruptions: a generic system dynamic approach for decision support  MÜNZBERG, Thomas (1); COMES, Tina (2); SCHULTMANN, Frank (2)  1: 1Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Nuclear and Power Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: MÜNZBERG, Thomas  thomas.muenzberg@kit.edu  Our daily life highly depends on the smooth operation of critical infrastructures (CIs) such as energy supply, information and communication, banking and finance, emergency services and transportation systems. CI failures can have catastrophic consequences. For instance, a severe storm with heavy snowfall led to a large-scale power breakdown in Germany in autumn 2005. The incident caused high economic losses and had serious impacts on the health sector and, transportation. Crisis management for CI failures is a challenge for decision makers, as CIs are highly interlaced. Since CI disruptions are rare, the knowledge about how CI disruptions can develop over time is limited. The effects to the CI network may extinguish or increase over time. These developments are not addressed in static approaches, which are often used to model CI disruptions. Crisis managers are under considerable pressure to manage these disruptions. For effective and efficient decision support a transparent analyses of the dynamic development of CI disruptions are needed. Our presentation demonstrates how a holistic system dynamics approach can be used to facilitate strategic decisions in the management of CI disruptions. System dynamics is a method that is designed to understand complex systems and to analyze the impact of a decision over time. By combining the analyses’ results with visualization tools, the understanding of the situation’s development can be enhanced. Our approach covers all CI sectors and subsectors to generate an overview of how the impact of a disruption propagates through the CI network. By using a holistic approach multiple alignments to different CI disruption scenarios are possible. This enables crisis managers to plan response strategies. The presentation illustrates our work to support CI disruption management and discusses the opportunities and limits of our approach. Additionally, feedback elicited in an expert workshop is presented and directions for future research are outlined.  Keywords: Critical infrastructure protection, crisis management, system dynamics, decision support, emergency management  Evaluating disaster preparedness in West Sumatra  MURPHY, Eila Sinikka  Jyväskylä University, Finland, Republic of  Presenting author: MURPHY, Eila Sinikka  eila.murphy@kolumbus.fi  As part of the Disaster Preparedness project, a crisis communication evaluation was carried out in Padang Pariaman regency of West Sumatra, in November of 2010. Two groups of key informants were interviewed about the disaster preparedness of the community; one group from the district government level, and the second group from the help organization (NGO) level. Both groups had been working in disaster-preparedness and the recovery. This paper reviews the results of the evaluation. The goal of the interviews was to determine what the citizens of Padang Pariaman have learnt about disaster preparedness during the past year, and what they still need to learn. The key informants also evaluated the use of various media in contributing to disaster preparedness education. The results indicate that both government officials and NGOs think the community has learned disaster preparedness via media, including tv, radio, leaflets and billboards. The topics covered construction, evacuation routes, and actions for the earthquake risks. Especially the Radio Republic Indonesia (RRI) has been recognized by officials as disaster preparedness educator. The NGOs approved of the Journalistic Network for Disaster Preparedness that was established to promote awareness campaigns. Local officials seem to appreciate all the disaster preparedness efforts organized by the NGOs. They see them as good partners for local governments to cooperate with DRR matters for the future. Padang Pariaman is well off in simulations, but both officials and NGOs agree that the government needs to carry out additional simulations in other districts. To further develop the disaster preparedness efforts of the local government to implement disaster-preparedness programs should be based on public-private partnerships with media and NGOs as well as other interested stakeholders.  Keywords: disaster preparedness, role of media  Risk shrink: exploring the psychology of risk  MURPHY, Sean  Lootok, United States of America  Presenting author: MURPHY, Sean  sean@lootok.com  A comprehensive view of risk requires two systems of thought: the analytical side of risk, and the intuitive side of risk. While many of us rely on data to determine risk, we often overlook how our perception of threats can impact the way we respond in an incident. The psychology of risk drives a deeper understanding of our relationship to threats and the human element of risk. Consideration of behavioral and social sciences perspectives can help leaders leverage the analytic and intuitive as complementary ways for evaluating risk. Delving into the latest findings in behavioral risk research can teach us why humans perceive certain threats, why we react the way we do, and how we can train for the best response to an incident. Understanding common fear factors – such as scale, immediacy, imaginability, lack of control, lack of choice, unfairness, impact, unfamiliarity, untrustworthy origin, and media coverage – help explain why we perceive some risks as more threatening than others, and how this affects the extent of our preparation against them. The way we perceive a risk influences our response, and our emotional perception often overrides fact or reason. Our experience also affects the way we process risk; or how the regular operation of our minds and bodies is impacted in a threatening situation. The Stress-Performance Link, or the impact of stress on decision-making abilities and incident response; and examine sources of disaster-related stress and its impact on performance, seen in phenomena including “Person-Role Conflict”, “Cognitive Lock-In,” “Task Saturation,” and “Groupthink.”  Keywords: risk, society and culture, behavioral science, risk psychology, incident response  Understanding your risk environment  MURPHY, Sean  Lootok, United States of America  Presenting author: MURPHY, Sean  iris@lootok.com  Risk is highly complex, dynamic and connected. Business continuity management exists because we live and work in a risk environment. Using criteria to categorize threats and leveraging risk assessment tools such as a risk matrix can help us evaluate 161 Oral presentations natural catastrophe 'annual expected % mortality' reduction (for example at 10% or 20% per decade) which would be audited by remodeling the risk every five or ten years (including any change in expected catastrophe occurrence). The same modelling framework would be used to show the National Chief Risk Officer in that territory, where to apply the most cost effective actions to reduce natural catastrophe mortalities, balancing (and where possible combining) priorities with those of education or development. These actions could include: the tighter policing of building codes, implementation of retrofitting, provision of improved storm surge flood forecasting etc. Currently extreme natural catastrophes gather headlines when they happen but are neglected when they remain latent. Turning extreme tail risk into its annualized equivalent is a procedure that underlies all catastrophe insurance. It should now be harnessed to drive unrelenting pressure for disaster risk reduction. IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012 Part of understanding our risk environment also means taking into account the very subjective manner in which risk is perceived. In the vein of the common saying, “Perception is reality,” the way we perceive a risk, threat, or incident influences our response; our emotional perception often overrides fact or reason. The more we recognize what drives this false sense of risk and acknowledge the “human” elements of risk, we can gain a greater understanding and a sense of control over our risk environment, both within a group and at an individual level.  Controversy and crisis management  MURPHY, Sean  Lootok, United States of America  Presenting author: MURPHY, Sean  sean@lootok.com  The threat of controversy lies in every organization. As today’s consumer gets information real-time, the need for companies to adopt a proactive stance in crisis management continues to increase. More and more battles are won and lost in the media, leaving those organizations that lack a formal crisis management process no choice but to respond at time of event. Though many businesses would rather react to a situation instead of plan for it, successful management of a crisis requires understanding how to handle a crisis before it occurs. Adopting a proactive approach towards challenges and controversy means preparing crisis management capabilities from the beginning, versus waiting for an incident to hit. Most organizations focus too heavily on the crisis management plan itself, leading people to blindly follow sequential steps or rely on a formulaic plan and expecting it to work. To establish crisis management as a critical function, organizations must prepare beyond the plan and formalize a crisis management structure. An organization with crisis management capabilities will have a framework in place that allows for flexibility and does not dictate decision-making. Organizations must also train their leadership teams to know their individual roles so that members can be focused onto either running the business or solving the crisis. Many organizations also take a narrow view of risk, believing the most significant disruptions and threats lie within the boundaries of their industry or geography. What this belief fails to recognize is that the most significant strategic challenges are equally likely to come from a larger system of forces that are constantly creating change. This requires developing threat intelligence capabilities to track, monitor, and report external forces that make organizations vulnerable 162 to threats.  Keywords: crisis management, scenario planning, controversy, incident response  Land use change and human health in the Eastern Himalayas: an adaptive ecosystem  NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna  International center for INtegrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, Federal Democratic Republic of  Presenting author: NIBANUPUDI, Hari Krishna  hkrishna@icimod.org  Human health is essential to poverty reduction and human development (WHO, 2006). The universal enjoyment of good health is acknowledged as a fundamental human right (WHO, 1992). However, human health is affected by environment, particularly ecosystem services. The WHO estimates that 24 per cent of global human disease burden is caused by the environmental factors whilst the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment clearly shows the close linkages between ecosystem services and human well being. Himalayan region is a hot spot for biological and cultural diversity. It provides rich ecosystem services for the 150 million people living in this region and also the world at large. Unfortunately these ecosystem services have been increasingly threatened and encroached by unsustainable and inequitable development policies and programs as well as climate change. In this backdrop, ICIMOD and its partners in Nepal, Tibet and Yunnan Province of China conducted a research by using EcoHealth approach in eastern Himalaya to understand the linkages between land use change and human health. The project explored the answers for the following research questions: What are the human health issues affected by changes in ecosystem services and social change associated with land use change today? How is human health affected by changes in ecosystem services and social change associated with land use change? How can EcoHealth approaches be applied to generate information that will contribute to improved health and wellbeing as well as improved environmental sustainability? The findings reveals that the linkages between land use change, ecosystem services and human health in Himalayan region are complicated, diverse, dynamic and often mediated by social factors. EcoHealth approach has greater potential to develop workable solution to address the issue of ecosystem service degradation and to improve human health.  Keywords: Climatic risks, land use cange, eco system, resilience, public ealth  A reasonable success story of vertical evacuation against tropical cyclones in India  NIRUPAMA, Niru (1); MURTY, Tad (2)  1: York University, Canada; 2: University of Ottawa, Canada  Presenting author: NIRUPAMA, Niru  nirupama@yorku.ca  There are two types of evacuations against coastal natural disasters that are practiced globally. First is the horizontal evacuation, in practice in developed countries, where people move away from the coastline in their automobiles. This type of evacuation is impractical, if not impossible in developing nations, where the required infrastructure is still in the developmental stages. In India, the traffic on the crowded streets and bazaars is terribly chaotic at the best of times. During a major natural disaster, it will be impossible to evacuate thousands of people, if not millions and move them safely away from the coast in a short time. Starting in the 1960s, various levels of government in India have developed evacuation schemes that are particularly relevant to local situations. This type of vertical evacuation is generally suitable, with some modifications to other developing countries as well. At present, thousands of cyclone shelters dot the Indian coastlines. During a major natural disaster, people have to walk about a kilometer or so to reach the nearest shelter. These shelters are well designed and well built structure, that can withstand the harshest forces offered by tropical cyclones. These cyclone shelters also serve as shelters against other hazards such as, tsunamis and river floods etc. They also serve as community gathering places, specialized schools, and libraries etc. Whereas in olden days, tens of thousands of people used to get killed in India by tropical cyclones, at present, the loss of life is considerably less, due in part to vertical evacuation procedures. Other contributing factors for the success in reducing the loss of life considerably are better and timely predictions by the India Meteorological Department, as well as public education and increased awareness due to the efforts of various levels of government, NGOs, as well as a number of charitable organizations.  Keywords: India, Cyclone, Evacuation, Shelters, Coastal  Economic impact of disasters in the Caribbean and experience with CCRIF  NIXON, Michael  Government of Cayman Islands  Presenting author: NIXON, Michael  marc.stal@grforum.org  The Caribbean Cat Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) has allowed the Cayman Islands to secure an effective means of transferring some of the financial risks associated with their catastrophic risk exposures. It has also helped to highlight the need for active and comprehensive catastrophe risk management and encouraged decision makers to take firm steps to implementing appropriate solutions.  Disasters in arctic areas  NJAA, Ove; GUDMESTAD, Ove Tobias  University of Stavanger, Norway, Kingdom of  Presenting author: GUDMESTAD, Ove Tobias  ove.t.gudmestad@uis.no  An overview of arctic disasters is important for Norwegian building industry, petroleum industry and shipping has an enhanced actuality since future activities in the northern areas will increase. This article provides an insight into important characteristics of relevant disasters as background knowledge for disaster risk assessments and associated risk reduction measures. We claim that the uncertainty dimension is vital to this discussion. Epistemic (knowledge based) uncertainty related to observable quantities, such as whether a major accident occur or not, the capacities of risk reduction measures, execution time for safe evacuation, dynamics of disaster phenomena, magnitude of accidental loads, response performances, instability effects etc., are important and should influence the choice of design approach. We also explore structures that are employed to work/transit arctic climates in order to recommend considerations upon design approaches.  Keywords: disaster, risk reduction, disaster management, arctic areas  The role of land use planning in the disaster risk reduction  NOJAVAN, Mehdi (1); SADEGHIAN, Alireza MOHAJERAN, Mahsa (2); SOBANI, Abdollah (3) (1);  1: university of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2: university of Birjand, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 3: Department of Hydraulic Engineering, K.N. University ofTechnology, Tehran, Iran  Presenting author: NOJAVAN, Mehdi  nojavan_mehdi@alumni.ut.ac.ir  Land-use planning that is carefully designed and rigorously implemented is the most useful approach to managing urban and minimizing associated risks. It is also one of the most challenging to implement because of conflicting values held about land by different segments of the population. In many societies, cultural, social or economic attributes associated with land can form the basis of some of the most contentious issues among people, particularly at local levels. In some places flood plains and volcanic slopes hold economic attractions for inhabitants and in the other places wetlands are drained to become industrial parks or housing estates. Deciding how to use land is demanding enough. It is even more daunting if there are competing views about the role that land should play in reducing collective exposure to risk. The objective of this paper is presenting the necessary criteria for the promotion of quantitative and qualitative land-use planning to confront the negative effects of natural disasters that is a serious threat to us and the future generations. Results showed that in many cases the condition of constructions and location of human settlements are effective in the condition of consequences of natural disasters. So the main subject of this paper is demonstrating and explaining the necessity and the important role of land-use planning in the disaster risk reduction and reducing vulnerability.  Keywords: Land-use Planning, Natural Disasters, Risk Reduction, Vulnerability  A study on the various types of community-based disaster management in mid-sized cities in Japan: a case study from Saijo City  OCHIAI, Chiho  Kyoto University, Japan  Presenting author: OCHIAI, Chiho  chiho118@yahoo.co.jp  The attention given to community-based disaster management (CBDM) has grown lately due to the increase number of natural disaster and review of case studies. Rural village has been established a community to defend their community from any kind of disaster by collaborating with local residents. In order to understand the local community in relation to the disaster, reviewing their disaster history, group or organization in charge of disaster, activities that conducted in relation to their local community are important. In Japan, there are many mid-sized cities with population of less than 100,000 people facing population decrease and aging. Saijo city is not an exception. Saijo city is located at the east part of Ehime 163 Oral presentations individual risks in varying degrees of probability and impact. Different quadrants of the risk matrix show that different threats require different ways of planning, and can serve as a foundation for developing a planning process, training people in incident management strategies, and exercising critical decision-making and assessment skills. Once an organization has transparency into its risk landscape, resiliency strategies can be implemented to either prevent or minimize the impact of an incident. IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • prefecture in Japan. The city holds a variety of geographical characteristics from plain area along the sea coast to hilly and mountainous area. How people established CBDM that matches their needs and social conditions? In this study, an interview survey was conducted with the Fire Volunteer (FV) members and local residents. The study revealed that FV is a main organization that has been in charge of different kinds of disaster happened in the city for many years. Also, in 2004 flood and 2008 forest fire, FV played a major role that was from preparedness to emergency response. This paper focuses on the various types of coordination that have been established between FV and based Voluntary Organizations for Disaster Prevention (VODP). The study found that each community has different types and ways to protect their community depending on their natural environment and social conditions that include limitations. The analysis also revealed that human relationship that has been established in the local community through summer festival and children’s association activities increases the awareness to protect their people and community that lead young people to join FV.  Keywords: Fire Volunteer, Community-based Disaster Management, Local Community, Middle-sized City, Flood and Forest Fire  Extreme forest fires and predictive power of fire danger Indexes: a deepening in the Alpine region  OLIVERI, Stefano (4); COCCA, Giampaolo (1); CANE, Daniele (2); BARBARINO, Simona (2); COMINI, Bruna (1); GEROSA, Giacomo (3)  1: ERSAF; 2: Arpa Piemonte; 3: Cattolica University of Brescia; 4: Ecometrics srl  Presenting author: COCCA, Giampaolo  giampaolo.cocca@ersaf.lombardia.it  At alpine scale, the efficiency of fire danger forecast services, prevention activities and fire fighting actions has significantly improved in the last decades. Ongoing trends show a strong decrease both in the overall frequency of forest fires and in the mean extension of burnt area per single fire occurrence. In spite of that, forest fires still represent one of the main threats impacting alpine forests. In the next future, ongoing climate changes could play a relevant role in influencing both the frequency, the geographical patterns and the regimes of fires in the Alpine area. Moreover, they could play a relevant role in inducing the occurrence of big or extreme fires. As a consequence, great efforts should be made to monitor the evolution of fire patterns in the Alps and to identify fire danger indexes highly performing in the Alpine region. Two Alpine Space projects (MANFRED and ALP FFIRS) recently cooperated on these topics. This paper synthesizes the results of the collaboration, mainly aimed at (1) understanding if extreme fire occurrences are significantly influenced by meteo-climatic conditions and (2) at identifying the Fire Danger Indexes better performing in the prediction of extreme occurrences. In the framework of this joint action, a panalpine dataset of fires has been generated (more than 82.000 fires, about 26.000 occurrences in the time span 2000 - 2009). The dataset maps the points of ignition and describes each event with a standard set of attributes. Extreme fires (99th percentile of the attribute total burnt area) occurred in the period 2003-2009 were identified and used to test a selection of about 20 fire weather indices, with non-parametric statistics to investigate their ability in distinguishing between fire/non fire days and between common fire conditions and extreme fire conditions. 164 IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: Extreme fire events, Fire Danger indexes, FWI, MANFRED, ALPFFIRS  Security and safety of cross-border infrastructure  OLIVERO, Sergio (1); MIGLIORINI, Massimo (1); STIRANO, Federico (1); CALANDRI, Fabrizio (1); FAVA, Umberto (2)  1: SiTI - Istituto Superiore sui Sistemi Territoriali per l'Innovazione, Italy, Republic of; 2: Lamoro - Langhe Monferrato Roero, Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: OLIVERO, Sergio  olivero@siti.polito.it  Typical cross-border infrastructures are transport communication networks and high voltage electricity transmission grids. These infrastructures represent a strategic economic, social and environmental asset and their loss or even temporary failure may imply relevant impacts on health and welfare of people. As a consequence, cross-border infrastructures must be protected against multiple threats, typically classified into natural (landslides, floods, etc.) and human threats (sabotage, accidents, etc.). A possible approach to improve cross-border infrastructures security and safety consists of three phases. Firstly, cross-border infrastructures must be identified and characterized in terms of assets, vulnerabilities, critical points, resources, threats, protocols, also through a strong interactions with local bodies and authorities. Secondly, the collected information has to be filled in a cross-border database, with the object to make available to stakeholders an integrated and geo-referenced information platform to be constantly consulted and updated. The third and final step consists of developing a risk and vulnerability assessment methodology (RVA), in order to evaluate immediate impacts as well as long-term consequences when a single cross-border infrastructure is compromised, and to evaluate the efficiency and the effectiveness of protocols, resources, instruments and equipment to deal with identified security threats. RVA must then be tested in different case studies (cross-border infrastructures related to energy and mass transport) and refined, also conducting simulations to assess the cross-border operational capability to prevent threats and/or to mitigate consequences. At the end of the validation process, RVA can provide managers and authorities with a decision-making support tool to plan adequate security investment policies and to enhance the efficiency of security protocols, technologies and measures. This paper shows an innovative approach followed by SiTI and Lamoro in North Western Italy across the boundary between Italy and France, simulating a complex system also allowing for a detailed analysis of applicable laws and procedures.  Keywords: cross-border infrastructures, risk & vulnerability assessment, decision-making support tool, energy infrastructures, complex systems  Building Resilient Nations and Communities  OXLEY, Marcus  Global Network for Disaster Reduction UK, United Kingdom  Presenting author: OXLEY, Marcus  marcus.oxley@globalnetwork-dr.org  In a global context where multiple risks are increasing, social, economic, environmental and political risks are increasingly inter-connected and mutually reinforcing. Building social and economic resilience is the best way to protect against multiple risks in the face of complexity and uncertainty. Here, a common set of resilience principles provides the basis for greater harmonisation of different sectors and public policy frameworks, resulting in more efficient use of resources and mutual gains between different sectors. A set of ten core principles are drawn from the shared experience of different sectors subject to extreme events that can be used by the private sector and civil society to promote resilient systems. The presentation compares the use of these ten principles by both communities in Sudan and businesses in South-East Asia who both successfully managed the impacts of extreme flooding events.  Developing realistic rapid earthquake damage evaluation method for decision making, using GIS. Case study: Iran Kerman city  PANAHI, Ali; VALIZADEH, Reza; KARIMZADEH, Morteza; FATHI, Leila  Islamic Azad University,Sardrood branch, Iran, Islamic Republic of  Presenting author: PANAHI, Ali  panahin@yahoo.com  Iran is one of the most seismically active country in the world, as more than 90% of the country falls within an active seismic zone, the Alpine-Himalayan belt. Kerman is one of the largest city in Iran and a historical site. Kerman is surrounded by many active faults and because of that is one of earthquake-prone areas in the country. Most of its buildings serving its population were built during years, when there were no standards, codes of practice or regulations, related to a seismic design and construction. Therefore, the actual seismic resistance of many of the existing buildings is unknown and mostly inadequate. This paper aims at development and implementation of suitable tools for the evaluation of realistic earthquake scenarios and data for decision making processes including engineering tools, GIS, etc. for rapid and automatic assessment of the seismic vulnerability of large groups of existing buildings in Kerman. The methodology of this study is intended for implementation in a suitable computer program (GIS based damage assessor) for evaluation of expected earthquake damages Kerman. The proposed methodology, focused on all existing buildings (e.g. educational buildings, health care institutions, public, commercial and industrial buildings, etc.), especially residential one, in which form the majority of existing buildings in Kerman. Existing methods for earthquake assessment of existing buildings are not suitable for implementation on a large scale, when large inventories of existing buildings have to be evaluated. In the first stage of the study the GIS database of Kerman municipality was used as the basic platform for evaluation of the geometric and structural attributes of buildings existing in Kerman. The algorithms developed during this stage of the research enable rapid and exact evaluation of the approximate geometric and structural attributes of approximately 90% of the existing buildings in Kerman, without any need for field checks.  Keywords: earthquake scenario, vulnerability assessment, rapid evaluation, scenario developing, GIS, Kerman.  Development of tsunami disaster response system in Korea  PARK, Hyoung Seong; HONG, Sung Jin; KIM, Dong Seag  National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of  Presenting author: PARK, Hyoung Seong  calebjoy@gmail.com  The purpose of this study is to develop the tsunami disaster response system using hazard mapping techniques for the east coast of Korea. Several methods are used for this purpose. The highly populated and potentially dangerous areas of the east coast have been selected and the test was performed on 14 different study areas to establish tsunami disaster response system and hazard mapping. The existing tsunami response measures are analyzed including shelters, evacuation methods and maps; and surveys are done for the climate, population and land-use on the selected zones. Topography and bathymetry data are acquired and processed for numerical modeling, through which a total of 77 hazard maps are prepared estimating tsunami in 7 magnitudes (M7.4~M8.0) from 11 seismic zones for each study area. As a result, tsunami hazard maps are prepared on the east coast region which is capable to provide fast and accurate response to tsunamis. The conclusions are: 1) selection of the study area for tsunami hazard mapping, 2) tsunami countermeasures are analyzed for project study area, 3) establishment of detailed topographical information and grid systems (4.5 m resolution) in the coastal zone, 4) inundation characteristics are analyzed for each study area, 5) tsunami hazard maps are prepared for each study area. The 'tsunami disaster response system' developed by this study will be prepared as comprehensive decision making system for tsunamis and will be utilized as disaster prevention system for anticipative response against disasters by central and local governments; and especially, will be utilized as the system for evacuation of residents and disaster management.  Keywords: tsunami, response, system, korea,  The benefits of alerting system based on standardised libraries  PARRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina (1); MULERO CHAVES, Javier (1); MENDES, Miguel (2)  1: German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Germany, Federal Republic of; 2: Tecnosylva  Presenting author: PARRAGA NIEBLA, Cristina  cristina.parraga@dlr.de  In the context of early warning systems, this presentation will discuss an approach to compose alert messages based on alerting libraries, their potential impact in the alert effectiveness and technological implications. The understanding of the alert content and trust by the recipients can be influenced by the alert message composition. It has been identified that recipients are more likely to trust the alert and implement protective actions when the alert message includes information about hazard, location, time, magnitude, guidance on protective actions and issuing source. However, the level of understanding of an alerting message can be jeopardised by the style if ambiguous or complex words are used, the message is inconsistent or jargon is used and if the recipient does speak the used language. Along with this, the creation of alerting libraries that can be used to compose alert messages in a modular manner using standardised terminology appears very suitable. Standardised libraries allow easy (even automatic) translation to any language and avoid 165 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: early warning, alert libraries, understanding, trust, effectiveness  Cross-border alerting  PÁRRAGA-NIEBLA, Cristina  German Aerospace Center (DLR)  Presenting author: PÁRRAGA-NIEBLA, Cristina  Cristina.Parraga@dlr.de  Traditionally, disaster relief was thought as a non-European problem. This view is changing along with the growth of natural disasters with climate change and increasing manmade disasters , as there is a clear benefit in cooperation among member states. The Lisbon Treaty prepares the terrain. In its Article 176c, it states: “the Union shall encourage cooperation between Member States in order to improve the effectiveness of systems for preventing and protecting against natural or man-made disasters.” European legislation shall establish the measures necessary to help achieve these objectives. In this context, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies publishes a report on the “Analysis of Law in the European Union pertaining to Cross-Border Disaster Relief”, clarifying the legal framework and identifying the gaps. There is a tendency towards cross-border cooperation for disaster response and relief. The European Parliament even allocated special funding for 6 pilot projects in this area. However, all activities are addressing cooperation of first responders and interoperability to fight natural disasters. But the element “cross-border alerting” of the population is not concretely mentioned or specifically addressed. The reasons why “cross-border alerting” is not directly addressed shall be discussed in the workshop, discussing first what is exactly meant by “cross-border alerting”: (1) Is it country A alerting directly the population of country B? (2) Is it country A alerting own citizens currently in country B? (3) Is it country A and country B coordinating and agreeing on a common strategy to disseminate alerts towards A+B citizens? (4) Or is it integrating alert dissemination systems? The right definition shall be discussed along with the consequences and opportunities. Finally, the blocking/ challenging issues shall be identified (organizational, economic, legislative, administrative, and socio-cultural). 166  From displacements to migrations: the earthquake of Messina (1908) and the earthquake of the Belice Valley (1968)  PARRINELLO, Giacomo  Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, LMU, Germany  Presenting author: PARRINELLO, Giacomo  giacomo.parrinello@yahoo.it  The presentation will focus on post-disaster migrations in historical perspective starting from two case studies: the earthquake of Messina (Sicily, 1908) and the earthquake of the Belice Valley (Sicily, 1968). Both earthquakes had enormously destructive effects on the built environment of large areas. As a consequence, in the aftermaths most of the resident population who had survived left the sites, heading to national and international destinations. In both cases, the authorities encouraged the departure of the survivors, while attempting to control and orient the displacements. Despite these similarities, the two case studies diverge considerably if observed on the mid and long-time scale. From 1909, a great number of refugees started to come back to Messina, and the urban population, reduced to a few thousands in the very aftermath, quickly started to grow. The following decades saw a continuous rise in population, and thirty years after the seism the population of Messina had considerably increased with respect to the eve of the disaster. The Belice Valley experienced the inverse phenomenon: while some survivors returned to the Valley few months after the disaster, nonetheless the demography of the area never recovered from the post-disaster losses. To explain such a difference, many different factors must be taken into account: general demographic trends, labor migrations, local economy, and so forth. The comparison, thus, suggests tempering any deterministic approach to post-disaster migrations. If on the short-time scale one can argue a direct relationship between the earthquakes and the population displacements, when reconsidering the demography of the same areas on a mid and long-term perspective, it becomes clear that other historical forces played a major role in transforming the initial displacements into permanent migrations.  Keywords: climates of migration, displacement, natural disaster, earthquake,  Towards an interdisciplinary framework for understanding the role of culture in the post disaster reconstruction process  PASUPULETI, Ram Sateesh  Luleå University of Technology Lulea, Sweden , Sweden, Kingdom of, and School of Planning and Architecture Bhopal India  Presenting author: PASUPULETI, Ram Sateesh  ramsateesh@rediffmail.com  This paper elaborates on a conceptual framework to validate the argument that cultural dimensions of the affected communities are not effectively and sufficiently addressed in the current post disaster humanitarian and development processes. This has been well articulated in this study from the analysis of shelter reconstruction process in 2004 tsunami hit fishing villages of Tamilnadu. The main contribution of this paper to theory and practice is delivered in three sections. Firstly, it explains the relevance of the conceptual framework that synthesises two different fields of enquiry i.e. cultural anthropology and urban design to analyse the role of culture in the evolution and development of traditional settlements in post disaster contexts. This is followed by the analysis of reconstruction processes in three tsunami hit fishing villages in Tamilnadu, Southern India, in which the author has carried out primary research as part of his (awarded) PhD study. The analysis of this primary research unfolds the specific impacts and the reasons for such responses in the post tsunami reconstruction process, by comparing and contrasting the findings from the three case studies. This paper discusses the disaster reconstruction process in two different ways. Instrumentally – in a positivist way. Secondly, the findings on the outcome of the reconstruction process have been discussed from the perspective of cultural anthropology. Here the consideration is of a ‘way of life’ – a habitus. This perspective is addressed from a different philosophical framework to positivism of development studies and draws on cultural anthropology – that is looking at the world as a social construct that operates through a physical spatial field. When the spatial relations change, this has an impact on social relations, but the relationship is not direct and deterministic, because the social and the spatial are mutually constructed.  Keywords: culture disaster development urban design  Risk for financial agencies in providing affordable disaster insurance to developing countries  PATEL, Saumyang M; HASTAK, Makarand PhD, PE, CCE  Purdue University, United States of America  Presenting author: HASTAK, Makarand PhD, PE, CCE  hastak@purdue.edu  Under socio economic development practice in Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) to make the world safer from natural hazards, emphasis is given to protecting and strengthening public infrastructure through proper design, retrofitting and re-building, in order to render them adequately resilient to hazards. Infrastructure facilities are not only important to fortify the nation against disaster risks but they are also crucial for nation’s economic development and poverty reduction. While their need is well known to decision makers, they are still short supplied and in poor condition mainly in developing countries. This has caused larger economic losses due to extreme events. This is a result of not only substandard infrastructure but also of increased population and low insurance penetration in the vulnerable urban areas. In order to hedge disaster risks to international capital markets, developing countries have adopted various approaches such as issuing catastrophe (CAT) bonds or creating a pool of funds that are supported by multi-lateral agencies such as the World Bank, Swiss Re, etc. These agencies are also providing risk transfer instruments for financial assistance in emergency situations. Due to restricted budget, most of the developing countries may ignore needs for proper disaster risk reduction and rather divert their funds for development projects. Thus there is a need for a mechanism that would make risk transfer instruments affordable for developing countries so that they do not have to compromise with their spending on development projects. This presentation would discuss the role that multilateral financial agencies could play in establishing such mechanisms through partnerships with governments. It would also discuss the change in their risk profile for financial agencies when they enter into such partnerships.  Keywords: Disaster Insurance, Capacity Building, Resiliency and Vulnerability  Assessing school safety from disasters- a baseline study (on video)  PETAL, Marla  Author of the School Safety Baseline study  Presenting author: PETAL, Marla  J.Heiss@unesco.org  This desk review revisits existing reports about all aspects of school safety, gathered from 81 countries, and refers to the key advocacy and guidance documents for school safety of the past 7 years to develop an analysis that reflects the best practices in achieving the goals of comprehensive school safety, and current concerns and recommendations of advocates and practitioners. A basic and simple framework for understanding the scope of school safety recognizes three main pillars: safe school facilities, school disaster management, and disaster prevention and risk reduction education. Each of these requires separate tracking because the types of policies, decision-making authority, resources, expertise, and implementing actors are substantially different for each. The Analysis section of this report draws from the wide range of reports and case studies and lessons learned from the practices of the past few years. It has afforded an opportunity to summarize many of the strengths and opportunities as well as the weaknesses and threats found in this literature. Illustrative examples and selected good practices are also provided to help in understanding the current state of the art.  Proposal for a national earthquake insurance program for Greece  PETSETI, Aglaia  University of Pireaus  Presenting author: PETSETI, Aglaia  aglaia.petseti@gmail.com  Greece is characterized by its high seismic exposure. It is estimated that the economic loss to the residential stock of a 1-in-200 year event is likely to be greater than 22 billion Euros while for a shorter return period 1-in-5 year it is likely to be 1.3 billion Euros. This potential loss severity was estimated by employing four different renowned catastrophe models and by developing a valuable and unique data bank of the residential stock in the country. The severity of losses underscores the urgent need for establishing a National Earthquake Insurance Program that will replace the ex post disaster relief by the State when an earthquake occurs. It is proposed that earthquake coverage up to a maximum amount should be provided on a compulsory basis to all homeowners at affordable but risk-based premiums which consider location and construction period. Transfer of earthquake risk to international reinsurers safeguards high capacity and success of the program in the long run. The program should provide insurance to all home owners, without excluding old houses, at a cost much lower than the private market. Expected claims response will increase penetration which 167 Oral presentations human errors (e.g. typos) that may lead to inconsistencies or ambiguities. It also allows very efficient transmission of alert messages over communication technologies, making it very cost-effective and making the transmission time almost negligible with suitable communications protocols, even in very limited systems that are currently taken into account for alerting purposes, such as navigation devices (GPS, GNSS). The presentation provides the results and conclusions of a workshop (13-14 March 2012) with field practitioners of several European countries where they are confronted with two different alerting systems in a created disaster scenario; one alerting system is based on free writing of alert messages and the other is based on created libraries. It is expected that the workshop results will provide the tools to design a tradeoff solution, exploiting the strengths of each approach that will be presented. IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: insurance, risk transfer  Simulation and optimization of cascading effects strategic multilayered risk management  PICKL, Stefan  Universität der Bundeswehr München, Germany  Presenting author: PICKL, Stefan  stefan.pickl@unibw.de  Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructures such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective disruption of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore offers spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. Increasing complexity of our critical infrastructures exacerbates consequences of natural and/or man-made disasters. Not only primary effects but also cascading effects as a result of increasing dependencies and interdependencies of our technological and societal systems demand intelligent simulation and optimization techniques in the area of operations research and a comprehensive safety and security management. This talk bases on the simulation and optimization of complex networks. New methods like computational intelligence, evolutionary algorithms, system dynamics and data farming should be combined within new heuristics to master such complex networks via modern soft computing approaches. It presents actual decision support approaches - in the area of modern transportation systems, energy networks and aviation management. New innovative heuristics and first computational results for special multilayered decision problems will be presented.  Keywords: Cascading Effect, Multilayered Decision Problem, RIKOV  The role of the European Standards for Construction (Eurocodes) for earthquake risk mitigation  PINTO, Artur; TAUCER, Fabio Federico  European Commission - DG JRC, Italy, Republic of  Presenting author: PINTO, Artur  artur.pinto@jrc.ec.europa.eu  The Eurocodes are the European norms establishing a set of common technical rules for the design of economical and safe buildings and civil engineering works, which will ultimately replace the differing rules in the various Member States. The intended benefits arising from the implementation and use of the Eurocodes are to: i) lead to a more uniform level of constructions safety across Europe; ii) facilitate the free movement of construction services, structural components/ kits, materials and products; iii) increase the competitiveness of the European construction industry; and iv) provide a common basis for research and development. The Eurocodes constitute a key instrument for the application of the Construction Products Regulation (305/2011/EU -CPR) and the Public Procurement Directive (2004/18/EC). They are 168 also the framework for drawing up harmonised technical specifications for construction products. A Commission Recommendation (2003/887/EC) calls for a shared effort between the Commission, Member States and industry. By instituting a common design framework, the Eurocodes have enhanced and have been a common basis for research and development in civil engineering in the European Union during the last decade, leading to one of the most advanced design and construction standards in the world. The use of the Eurocodes will lead to a more uniform level of construction safety in the different European regions, while responding to regulatory safety matters at national level through the so called Nationally Determined Parameters (NDPs). New areas of prenormative research have been identified in the area of earthquake resistant design, which undertaken at European level, will allow to increase the level of safety and performance for the further mitigation of earthquake risk.  The importance of a systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of complex urban, regional, national or pan-European systems comprising buildings, transportation, lifelines, utility networks and critical facilities  PITILAKIS, Kyriazis  ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKI, Greece, Hellenic Republic  Presenting author: PITILAKIS, Kyriazis  pitilakis@civil.auth.gr  SYNER-G (EU project) is a European collaborative research project focusing on systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of buildings, transportation and utility networks and critical facilities. The originality of the project is the systemic approach of vulnerability and risk assessment of complex interacting systems. The whole methodology is implemented in an open source software tool and is validated in selected case studies. Main goals of SYNER-G are: i) to elaborate appropriate, in the European context, fragility relationships for the vulnerability analysis and loss estimation of all elements at risk; ii) to develop social and economic vulnerability relationships for quantifying the impact of earthquakes; iii) to develop a unified methodology, and tools for systemic vulnerability assessment accounting for all components exposed to seismic hazard, considering interdependencies within a system unit and between systems; and iv) to validate the methodology and the proposed fragility functions in selected sites and systems and to implement in an appropriate open source software tool. SYNER-G developed an innovative methodological framework for the assessment of physical as well as socio-economic seismic vulnerability at the urban/regional level. The built environment is modeled according to a detailed taxonomy into its component systems, grouped into the following categories: buildings, transportation and utility networks, and critical facilities. Each category may have several types of components. The framework encompasses in an integrated fashion all aspects in the chain, from regional hazard to fragility assessment of components to the socio-economic impacts of an earthquake, accounting for all relevant uncertainties within an efficient quantitative simulation scheme, and modeling interactions between the multiple component systems in the taxonomy.  Governance in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: a pan European perspective  PLA, Francesc  Council of Europe - EUR-OPA  Presenting author: PLA, Francesc  francesc.pla@coe.int  In the present difficult economic situation, the coordination of actions related to both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are more than ever crucial in order to limit their possible negative impact on already weak growth rates in most European countries. To adequately plan those necessary actions in both domains, governance issues are essential: a clear distribution of responsibilities for each phase between the various authorities (international, national, regional, and local) involved is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of the overall strategy. Aware of that need of convergence of both approaches, the European institutions are exploring the adequate way to address it. The main findings of the joint UNISDR Europe and European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement published in 2011 on current governance work done at supranational level will be briefly presented and discussed. The need to improve the present situation through a greater interaction between authorities and other actors (private sector, scientific community, civil society, …), both directly through common projects or indirectly through the flow of information between them, will be emphasized as a crucial aspect to increase resilience of modern societies against climate change and disasters.  Impact of climate change, land use change and residential mitigation measures on damage and risk assessment  POUSSIN, Jennifer K. (1,2); WARD, Philip J. (1,2); BUBECK, Philip (1,2,3); AERTS, Jeroen C.J.H. (1,2)  1: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 2: Amsterdam Global Change Institute (AGCI), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 3: German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Section Hydrology, Germany  Presenting author: POUSSIN, Jennifer K.  jennifer.poussin@ivm.vu.nl  Flood risk throughout Europe increased in past decades, and is projected to increase further due to continued development in flood prone areas and climate change. Several adaptation strategies can be used to limit this increase. These strategies include flood protection measures such as storm surge barriers and dikes, but also spatial zoning and flood proofing of houses. In recent years, studies have shown that adequate undertaking of flood-proofing measures can considerably decrease the costs of floods for households. However, there is little insight into how such measures can decrease the risk at the basin level, now and in the future. To gain such insights, a model was developed and applied to the Meuse river basin, in the region of Limburg, southeast Netherlands. We used the Damagescanner model with land use maps for 2000 and 2030 to represent exposure, and inundation maps for current and future climates to represent the hazard. The research shows that the annual risk increase due to land use changes alone, climate change alone, and land use and climate changes combined, could be up to, respectively, 108 %, 37 %, and 185 %. The implementation of spatial planning already decreases the risk by up to 25 % to 45 %. Adaptation factors subsequently applied to assess the potential impact of three adaptation strategies (dry-proofing, wet-proofing, and dry- and wetproofing combined), show that a wide implementation of the strategies in residential areas could decrease the annual risk by up to 25 %. However, if implemented only on new buildings in 2030, the strategies would only decrease the annual risk by 5 %. A final step was taken to assess the potential risk reduction of an additional spatial zoning in 2030. Results show that this zoning combined with adaptation strategies could reduce the risk by up to 22 %.  Keywords: Flood risk modeling, climate change, land use change, spatial zoning, flood risk mitigation  Design guidelines for human computer interfaces supporting fire emergency response  PRASANNA, Raj (1); YANG, Lili (2); KING, Malcolm (2)  1: University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, Democratic Socialist Republic of; 2: Loughborough University, UK  Presenting author: YANG, Lili  L.Yang@lboro.ac.uk  Emergency response failures are mostly due to the fact that first responders at individual, team, and organizational levels are unable to make comprehensive decisions in an appropriate manner. It is widely accepted that on-site dynamic information retrieving, sharing and presenting, in the right format at the right time and to the right person, will significantly improve the decision-making of first responders. Despite recent work on information systems, many first responders in emergency situations are unable to develop sufficient understanding of the situation to enable them to make good decisions. Most of the previously developed information systems failed due to the lack of usability, supporting high-level of situation awareness under demanding circumstances. Primarily, the limitations of usability are minimized through the application of an appropriate set of user interface design principles and guidelines that allow designers to avoid many pitfalls in the human computer interaction design process. As a partial requirement of the development of information system for the UK fire and rescue services, this paper discusses the selection of appropriate design guidelines and principles exclusively suitable for the design of human computer interfaces for fire emergency response. In particular this paper explains several important contextual factors exclusive to fire emergency response that may influence the formulation of interface design guidelines and enlightens in detail how specific design decisions are applied for the context of fire emergency by using some relevant examples. The proposed guidelines are formulated based on validated human centered requirements identified through extensive interviews with fire fighters together with observation made of fire emergency response training simulations. This paper contributes to improve the designing of the human computer interfaces and human computer interaction for supporting fire fighters during fire emergency response.  Keywords: Human computer interaction,Information Systems, Fire Emergency Response, Human computer interfaces, fire fighters  Decision making for resilience in critical infrastructure governance  PRIOR, Tim  Center for Security Studies, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland  Presenting author: PRIOR, Tim 169 Oral presentations will lead in better reinsurance terms or even expansion of the program to cover other catastrophic risks. A national risk management approach will prove to be beneficial for the Greek society overall." IDRC DAVOS 2012
  •  tim.prior@sipo.gess.ethz.ch  The growing interconnectedness of global society has increased the number and complexity of services supporting society, and has increased societal sensitivity to disturbances that might threaten the delivery of those services. Critical infrastructure provides and supports many key services that globalised society depends on, and ensuring these infrastructures are secure and ‘resilient’ has become an important goal, both in the public and private sectors. This paper explores what critical infrastructure resilience might mean, and outlines a methodology to investigate how decision makers could systematically incorporate resilience into critical infrastructure security-related policy decision making and practice.  Risk cultures, the social construction of risk, and coordinated responses to global and systemic risks  PRIOR, Tim; GIROUX, Jennifer  Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich, Switzerland  Presenting author: PRIOR, Tim  tim.prior@sipo.gess.ethz.ch  There is no question that the global society is connected now more than ever. With this increasing connectivity arguably comes greater societal sensitivity in the systems that support this global society – particularly because society relies on a variety of complex and interdependent social and technical supporting services. At the same time, the awareness and prevalence of global and systemic risks has increased. Such risks will have impacts not just at the local or regional scale, but also on the global scale, with multinational and crosscultural consequences. Coordinating effective responses to such global and systemic risks requires an understanding and appreciation of the differing risk cultures in communities, societies, organisations and institutions, and the way risk culture is influenced by the social construction of risk at the individual and community levels. ‘Risk culture’ describes an organisation, community or institution’s beliefs, values and practices regarding a risk. Scholarship on the social construction of risk acknowledges that risks, and peoples’ perceptions, beliefs, values, attitudes and behaviours associated with those risks are socially and culturally framed and discussed. This presentation will explore the implications of the social construction of risk in the development of risk cultures, and the complication this raises for coordinating appropriate responses to global and systemic risks. The presentation focuses on individual and community constructions of risk, and particularly on some of the most important factors influencing individual and community level risk cultures, like trust, sense of community and social norms among others. Lastly, a relatively ‘simple’ example of the social construction of wildfire risk in Australia is presented to illustrate the difficulties faced by institutional risk management agencies when advocating wildfire preparedness activities at the household and community levels.  Emergency Support System - ESS : The end-user perspective  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim  Magen David Adom, Israel 170 IDRC DAVOS 2012  Presenting author: RAFALOWSKI, Chaim  haimr@mda.org.il  ESS is expected to be an interoperable platform of systems and components for collecting and exchanging data between the incident theater and the operational center as well as for deriving intelligence from these data in order to support more efficient decision taking during emergencies. From the users point of view the ESS system addresses the requirements of both the tactical and operational level of the scene actors during emergency and crisis management operations. Police, Fire Brigade, Coast Guard, Border Security, environmental protection agencies Health Services, and Emergency Medical Services are the main stakeholders of ESS. Furthermore Civil Protection and Emergency management agencies, Local and Regional Governments and Authorities are considered as additional stakeholders of the system. A series of table top exercises (TTX) held by end-users organizations in various countries allowed the participants to identify the operational requirements that the ESS system should satisfy in order to comply with users’ expectations and to improve the current crisis management operations. These requirements include the adaptation to the organizational structure of public services, operating needs of various configurations, easiness and rapid deployment of system components, rapid set-up of the web-based ESS platform, autonomous operation in terms of energy and telecommunication needs etc. All these requirements have been considered in the design and implementation of the ESS prototype and they are repeatedly validated during the ESS field tests. The active involvement of the end-users in the implementation of the ESS field tests is a critical issue which supports the direct users’ feedback to the system developers in order to fine tune the system’s operation according to the operational needs. The expectations and requirements of operational users from the ESS system will be summarized and discussed during this session.  Crisis management and security research – an end user perspective  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim  Magen David Adom  Presenting author: RAFALOWSKI, Chaim  haimr@mda.org.il  Over the last 50 years the world of crisis management has changed dramatically – the geo political global changes have merged the "civil defense" with the (more locally focused) "crisis managers". Urbanization and economic changes have made the cities larger and more vulnerable to disasters, more severe weather phenomena are affecting more population, large scale pandemics became a threat, terrorism has become a major concern and militaries have become a major player in international humanitarian assistance, just to mention some of the more evident changes. One would ask in such an environment, one would argue what the role of "security research" is? (1) In an environment of reduced budgets, ensure that products and technologies are multipurpose by nature; (2) to better understand competing values, and thus create better acceptability of products and methods; (3) try to bridge the fragmentation in the crisis management world by encouraging the creation of more "generic" solution; (4) try to minimize the "high media attention" effect, by a scientific understanding of needs and gaps; (5) help the end users community be heard, and bring together research, industry and end users to benefit together from the results; (6) bring into "security" the knowledge of other disciplines as health, earth sciences, chemistry, logistics; (7) promote creation of solutions in areas where there is a built in market failure due to the size of the market or its limited number of procuring agencies (e.g. CBRN); (8) assist in the creation of a long term vision of "crisis management" issues, especially those with global impact. Those issues are beyond the planning spam of the organizations, and beyond their analysis tools.  MDA Response to a Mass Casualty Toxicological Accident  RAFALOWSKI, Chaim  Magen David Adom, Israel  Presenting author: RAFALOWSKI, Chaim  marc.stal@grforum.org  The chemical attack in Tokyo 1995 raised the awareness to the possibility of a mass casualty toxicological incident caused by an accident, deliberate release or natural disaster. These are the main concepts leading to MDA chemical procedure: In a MCTA the exposure is to vapors. This enables reducing the level of skin protection of responders. If victims exposed to the toxic substance still show signs of life by the time rescue units arrive to the scene, the concentration of oxygen is high enough to sustain life, and the concentration of the contaminant is rather low. These facts enable reducing the respiratory protection of responders. Since the exposure is to vapors, disrobing will provide initial sufficient decontamination, and the risk of long term contamination of the ambulances is minimal. A MCTA could occur any time anywhere all over the country. These concepts lead to the following operational procedures: All ambulances carry personal protective equipment and antidotes. MCTA procedures are part of the training programs for all team members at their various levels. EMS personnel wearing PPE will assist in the fast removal of patients from the contaminated area. Patients that have been disrobed will be transported to the hospitals, by EMS personnel wearing PPE. If there is a need for, wet decontamination will be performed at hospital's gate. Diagnosis of Oregano Phosphate will be based on clinical criteria. Following the decision of Paramedic / Physician on organophosphate intoxication, all EMT are authorized to use antidote auto injectors. Several small scale operations have demonstrated that this procedure is well incorporated and understood by MDA staff and volunteers. An ongoing learning process is essential to creating this level of knowledge by the personnel.  Satellite application for non-structural flood risk management in Pakistan  RAFIQ, Lubna (1); BLASCHKE, Thomas (2)  1: SUPARCO-Pakistan Space Agency, Pakistan, Islamic Republic of; 2: Z_Gis, Centre for Geoinformatics- University Salzburg Austria  Presenting author: RAFIQ, Lubna  rafiqlu@stud.sbg.ac.at  Flood management procedures rely on the recording of the hydrological parameters of a flood event, its modelling and short-term and long-term forecasts. Methods and models are well established yet it is still difficult to predict the risk levels of such extreme events. For the non-structural management of flood related risks, precise flood prone areas need to be known and a detailed analysis of both societal and environmental aspects of such flood events needs to be conducted. Vulnerability was assessed using the census data in order to conduct statistical and GIS analysis, along with using the Delphi method to assign weights to the respective vulnerability indicators. Multi temporal Landsat MSS, TM and ETM images were utilized in order to calculate the flood inundation extent for four selected flood events. SPOT- 4 multi spectral high resolution imagery was found to be very useful in identifying population location (in terms of built up area) as well as agricultural units within the flood zone. Non-structural flood risk methodology is illustrated by using the Chenab and Jehlum River floods of 1976, 1988, 1992 and 2010 (Jhang and Sargodha districts of province Punjab, Pakistan) as a case study. Additionally the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures (schools & hospitals) within flood hazard zones provides indicators for the degree of spatial exposure to disaster. Findings of the study may help in the planning and management of the flood plain area of Jhang Tehsil in order to mitigate future flood events accordingly.  Keywords: Flood Risk, Vulnerability assessment, Landsat & SPOT imageries, critical infrastructure  Mitigation of global volatility of food supply/demand risk through innovations in crop insurance schemes  RAWAL, Sonia A. (1); BOISSONNADE, Auguste C. (1); TAN, John (2); SHAH, Haresh C. (1)  1: Asia Risk Centre, Inc; 2: Asia Capital Reinsurance Group  Presenting author: RAWAL, Sonia A.  sonia.rawal@asiariskcentre.com  Increasing focus on food and water security and frequently recurring natural disasters is opening up a whole new business opportunity for the financial services sector as crop insurance gets increasingly popular in Asia. The paper seeks to understand the scenarios and issues in the major Asian countries and the prevailing economic landscape. It explains the complexities of the problem, the loop-holes/challenges prevalent today and the need for comprehensive mechanistic models for risk quantification and risk transfer in Asia. The paper proposes a unique solution to solve the “hunger problem” and potentially food security of the nations by forming agro-pool(s) at a regional level that would hold a percentage of the stock pile reserves and would disburse these reserves into the market to ease out supply fluctuations caused by catastrophes (political, social or natural disasters). As a starting point, the pool is associated to one crop; rice. The paper explains the formation of the pool, the roles of 171 Oral presentations IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • IDRC DAVOS 2012  Keywords: crop insurance, volatility  Risky talks and talking risks in disaster management: a way forward or backward?  RAY-BENNETT, Nibedita Shankar  University of Leicester, United Kingdom  Presenting author: RAY-BENNETT, Nibedita Shankar  nsrb1@le.ac.uk  Since the conception of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015) in the World Disaster Conference in 2005, ‘risk’ is mainstreamed in all disaster management activities. The Disaster Risk Management Programme (DRM) initiated jointly by the Government of India and the UNDP in India (20002-2007), cyclone-cum-flood shelter management in Bangladesh and the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 in the United Kingdom (to name a few) are some of the ways 'risk' is practiced. In this light, I argue that the adoption of 'risk' as well as its application especially in the context of international development needs to be problematised: first, by questioning how risk reduction approach differs from the other approaches such as hazard management approach, vulnerability approach and consequent management approach. In doing so, I question is this ‘a way forward or backward’ for the disaster and development community who are committed to reduce poverty and vulnerability from the impact of environmental disasters. Second, I posit that the ‘way forward’ would entail studying risk at the interface of socio-technology, communication, vulnerability and cultural theories. In so doing, I posit that risk theories would not only generate substantially new ideas and approaches for managing disasters but also promote critical reflexivity amongst the DRR and development communities.  Keywords: DRR, risk, vulnerability, disaster, development, communication, culture, socio-technology  Social Perspectives on Land Degradation and Desertification: The Case of Migration and Conflict  RECHKEMMER, Andreas  Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Switzerland  Presenting author: RECHKEMMER, Andreas  andreas.rechkemmer@grforum.org  Growing evidence on the multifold linkages between climate change, land degra¬dation, the reduction of drylands ecosystem services, poverty, and migratory movements has raised the awareness of scholars and policy makers. These linkages were traditionally understood as the interplay 172 between physical patterns of change and human activities. Recent research efforts, however, have shown that both climate change and desertification must be understood as social phenomena largely driven by human activities. Hence societal risks such as migration and even conflict triggered by climate change and land degradation can be perceived as socially constructed phenomena in the age of global change, and therefore must be addressed by means of an integrated social science effort. This paper introduces the concept of environmental migration and refugees, describes the various aspects of the interaction between climate change, desertification, the displacement of people and further downstream risks, and the difficulties to assess them in a straight-forward manner.  Keywords: Climate Change and Migration, Displacement, Environmental Refugees  Risk culture: implications for risk governance  RENN, Ortwin  University of Stuttgart  Presenting author: RENN, Ortwin  ortwin.renn@sowi.uni-stuttgart.de  Deciding about the location of hazardous facilities, setting standards for chemicals, making decisions about clean-ups of contaminated land, regulating food and drugs, as well as designing and enforcing safety limits all have one element in common: these activities are collective endeavours to understand, assess and handle risks to human health and the environment. These attempts are based on two requirements. On the one hand, risk managers need sufficient knowledge about the potential impacts of the risk sources under investigation and the likely consequences of the different decision options to control these risks. On the other hand, they need criteria to judge the desirability or undesirability of these consequences for the people affected and the public at large. This second part is an integral aspect of risk culture, understood as the systems of norms, vales and visions that an organization shares among its members Within the portfolio of organizational culture, criteria on desirability are reflections of social values such as good health, equity, or efficient use of scarce resources. Both components – knowledge and values – are necessary for any decision-making process independent of the issue and the problem context.  Social unrest: a systemic risk perspective  RENN, Ortwinn  University of Stuttgart, Germany, Federal Republic of  Presenting author: RENN, Ortwinn  sekretariat.renn@sowi.uni-stuttgart.de  This paper develops a framework of social unrest based on a complex understanding of systemic risks. The term ‘systemic’ describes the extent to which any risk is embedded in the larger context of social and cultural aspects that shape our understanding of risks, influence our attention to causal relationships and trigger our activities for handling these risks. Social unrest can be grouped into this framework of systemic risks. It can be a cause of risk to others, it can be a consequence of experiencing risk (for example a terrorist threat) or the manifestation of such a risk (the actual terrorist attack) or it can be a promoter of a risk chain that is located in other functional systems of society (for example financial crisis). Since social unrest is more a process of escalation than a finite state of the world we have conceptualized the term in form of a step-by-step escalation scheme. Each step makes social unrest more likely and also if it then occurs more severe. In the course of this process, activities may get more and more radical, in particular if these collective protest actions are ignored or even oppressed (examples may be wild strikes, regional boycotts or blockades). In addition, our analysis includes social simulation attempts to identify emprically valid indicators for social unrest. One of the key variable is the relationship between facebook entries with critical remarks towrads the present regime and the number of political arrests.  Keywords: Systemic Risk, Risk Governance, Social Unrest, framework of social unrest  Enhancing community resilience for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction – a case study from Cambodia  RIZVI, Ali  International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)  Presenting author: RIZVI, Ali  ali.raza@iucn.org  Several coastal communities in Cambodia, facing predicted sea-level rise coupled with poverty and degrading ecosystems, are at high risk from climate related changes and other disasters. IUCN and its local partners are implementing a 4-year EU funded project aiming at designing ecosystembased adaptation and risk reduction pilot activities providing opportunities for other communities in the coastline to learn from each other. Koh Kapik, a fishing village of 1,100 people, is only accessible via boat. Assessment studies of the area indicate increasing mangrove deforestation, coastal erosion, high winds and frequent occurrence of storms for the past decade. There is significant increase in sedimentation causing the two kilometer primary access, to and from the village, via a creek almost impossible, forcing the villagers to use the open sea. This route, longer and unsafe due to strong tides, has resulted in the villagers spending more on fuel, damages to boats, and accidents; thereby, making access to markets, freshwater, health, education, etc. hazardous and expensive. This has also exposed the community to disasters; as in case of strong storms, the nearly impassable creek is the only escape route for the villagers. Hence, the local communities ranked creek rehabilitation as a top priority during the Vulnerability Assessment exercise. Further, a cost-benefit exercise pointed out the high return on investment for this activity due to resulting monetary and other benefits including risk reduction. IUCN is now facilitating the rehabilitation of the creek through ecosystem-sensitive planning. The area has been surveyed; the dredged sediment will be properly disposed and the mangrove replantation undertaken at appropriate sites to minimize future sedimentation. Possibilities of sustainable financing mechanisms are also being explored to develop a fund to be used for maintenance and conservation purposes.  Disaster Risk Management in Schools – The Second Pillar  RODGERS, Ian  Save the Children  Presenting author: RODGERS, Ian  irodgers@savechildren.org  The Education sector in most countries can be described as a fairly flat hierarchical system that has deep roots and penetration at community level. By this nature it also means that ensuring consistency and compliance of standard operating procedures is difficult to roll out, monitor and verify. In addition often due to the sprawling nature of Education it is often administratively decentralized. This realistic approach to management can often have a negative effect on the centralization of important data such as how many schools, exact locations, staffing, attendance records, geo-spatial data of surrounding environments, structural designs, etc.. This type of data is key to disaster risk management and planning, particularly for external stakeholders such as local disaster management committees and response personnel this poses a challenge. There is consensus amongst stakeholders that the 3 core pillars of Safer Schools are Structural Safety, Disaster Risk Management of Schools and DRR Education. All three areas are interlinked and to some degree interdependent. However progress has not been even amongst the three pillars. Often Education institutes in country, donors, international organizations and CSO alike choose one pillar as an entry point. To this point recent studies have shown that great strides forward have been made in Structural Safety and DRR education pillars and less progress made in the integration of disaster risk management within school operations. During this presentation it will be discussed as to why this uneven take up has occurred. Propositions, examples and lessons learnt will be used to discuss how to encourage an increase in the second pillar of disaster risk management in schools. Key points of the presentation will include costs, human resources and capacity associated with Disaster Risk Management in Schools and who the key stakeholders outside the immediate confines of a school administration are.  Development of guidelines for psychosocial support for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear (CBRN) incident  ROOZE, Magda W.  Impact/Arq Psychotrauma Expert Group, Netherlands, Kingdom of the  Presenting author: ROOZE, Magda W.  m.rooze@impact.arq.org  The goal of this study is to develop a guideline for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of a CBRN incident, as a standard for quality psychosocial support, scientific, expert and consensus based. The guidelines will be based on the ‘European guidelines for psychosocial early interventions after terrorism, disasters and other shocking events’ (Impact, 2007). And the ‘Guidelines psychosocial support for uniformed services’ (Impact, 2010), both developed in the context of a European project EUTOPA. People’s own resilience is the starting point for these guidelines. The majority of people are able to cope with shocking events without the need of professional help, moreover uniformed services, (trained) volunteers and hospital are trained and educated to deal with complex emergency situations. From scientific literature it becomes 173 Oral presentations regulators and the mechanisms for storage and exchange of rice in the event of a natural catastrophe or shortfall of production. It explains how in the event of a disaster in one province, the reserves accumulated by the pool can be used to supply rice back to the farmers in another province by releasing the stock pile reserves governed by the pool. This helps ensure the affected individuals are not deprived of food and price fluctuations caused by the resulting shortfall can be smoothened out. IDRC DAVOS 2012
  • also clear that they have a high risk profession which asks for supportive measures. Methods: Development of the guidelines in the specific context of CBRN on the basis of a complementary literature review (PubMed, PsychINFO, Embase 2001-2011), site visits to 7 different European countries to interview experts and workshops and conferences to reach consensus with the relevant stakeholders. Results: first guidelines on psychosocial support for uniformed services, volunteers and hospital staff in case of CBRN as a solid foundation for implementation in the different countries. Discussion: The discussion will be on the process to create attention and backing for the guidelines amongst key stakeholders and how to take the differences into account among the different countries.  Keywords: CBRN,guidelines,psychosocial support, uniformed services, volunteers ,hospital staff  The dual use of field hospital in peace time and in war time. The Italian experience of Alpini field hospital during disasters.  ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra (1); FACCINCANI, Roberto (1); LOSAPIO, Lucio Pantaleo (2); CARLUCCI, Michele (1)  1: San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation, Milan, Italy; 2: Gruppo Intervento Medico-Chirurgico , Ospedale da CampoA.N.A. Italian Association of Alpini, Onlus Foundation; Bergamo, Italy  Presenting author: ROSSODIVITA, Alessandra  rossodivita.alessandra@hsr.it  In a “ disaster “ local health services can be overwhelmed, and damage to clinics and hospitals can render them usefulness. Damage to the health care infrastructure will further compromise the delivery of health services. A field hospital is a large mobile medical unit that temporarily takes care of casualties on-site before they can be safely transported to more permanent hospital facilities. Lessons from past complex disasters such as civil conflicts, wars, humanitarian emergencies showed that field hospitals – as temporary hospital civilian or military plays a significant but sometimes controversial role during disasters. The authors describe an Italian model of mobile field hospital of ANA - Italian association of Alpini, who had worked and works in a case of a disaster or an humanitarian crisis. This field hospital supports the activities of civil protection in national and international context, implementing local emergency services and hospital bed surge capacity in the treatment of mass-casualties for a specific period of time. The hospital on field of Alpines, born in 1976, and actually operates in Italy, jointly with the aid of two major Italian hospitals, the San Raffaele Hospital Scientific Foundation of Milan and “Ospedali Riuniti di Bergamo (Italy) “, and civil protection in different national and international context during disaster emergencies and humanitarian crises. The authors would like to suggest the dual use of a field hospital in supporting countries and population needs during disaster time and peace time. During peace time the use of a field hospital should be suggested as support in mass gatherings events; in public health prevention programs for population, in teaching role activities such as emergency and in disaster preparedness 174 IDRC DAVOS 2012 training programs. During war time or disaster time how to use field hospital as support to population affected .  Keywords: civilian and military cooperation, disasters, foreign field hospitals, hospital preparedness, International cooperation.  GITEWS - The German Contribution to the Indonesian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning system: experiences and lessons learned  RUDLOFF, Alexander  German Research Centre for Geosciences - GFZ  Presenting author: RUDLOFF, Alexander  rudloff@gfz-potsdam.de  The German initiative to design and construct an operational end-to-end tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean got underway directly after the 26 December 2004 tsunami in the region. First instruments as well as ocean monitoring sensors were already deployed a few months later in early 2005. During the entire technical installation phase, joint German-Indonesian academic and training workshops were held, in addition to training courses for maintenance proficiency. Moreover, capacity building and development measures were carried out at different stages. In conjunction with a PhD programme in Germany most capacity development processes were carried out in Indonesia comprising institutional consulting at national, regional and local levels as well as the development and implementation of tsunami preparedness measures and early warning mechanism in three selected pilot regions on Sumatra, Java and Bali. Seve