Technological change as driver and response (CPWF GD workshop, September 2011)
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By Boru Douthwaite. As part of a CPWF September 2011 workshop in Thailand regarding global drivers. We have divided driver types into five categories: 1. Demographic/Social, 2. Economic, 3. Political/Institutional/Legal, 4. Environmental/Climate change, 5. Technological/ Innovations
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Technological change as driver and response (CPWF GD workshop, September 2011)
- 1. Technological Change as Driver and Response Boru Douthwaite
- 2. Two parts Technological change as both driver and response What Basin Teams should know? 2
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- 4. Technological change is both driver and response 4
- 6. Before… and after the project. (Photograph by Olivier Joffre) CRESMIL impact in Vietnam, showing what is possible Mr. Nguyen Hoang Ben Ap Lung Chim, Xa Dinh Thanh, Dong Hai.
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- 9. 9 Xiaowan Dam, China
- 10. Technological change as a global driver? Technological change happens everywhere Lever of riches Mokyr –defining feature of successful civilizations (China, Europe) Technological changes that count as global drivers Information revolution Brainstorming ...... 10
- 11. What drives technology change in agriculture? 1 kWhr costs 10 cents 1 person can work continuously at 30 W 33 hrs to earn 10 cents? Substituting fossil for human power drives TC in ag US agriculture uses 45 times more energy than traditional agriculture Doubling or trebling of energy costs won’t reverse the trend 11
- 12. Trends versus drivers Dramatic weather events Food crisis threaten global security Impending water wars Fossil fuels running out Rising political power of ‘developing nations’ Saving forests makes money Faith traditions support stewardship Younger generations demand action 12
- 13. Technological responses in basins with global relevance Brainstorm Global drivers Demographic, social, economic Climate change and environmental Political and institutional Basins 13
- 14. What basin teams should know How technological change happens How research can be used as a lever of technological change What basin responses / trends (i.e., aggregate behavioural change) have global relevance 14
- 15. How technological change happens An emergent property Of multitude interaction between people going through individual and social learning cycles An evolutionary process 15
- 16. Research as lever of technological change Manage research process to make beneficial emergence more likely The levers Novelty Selection Interaction Motivation Reducing uncertainty Work with partners in spotting early emergence, stabilize and amplify 16
- 17. Reducing uncertainty Technically, impossible to predict emergence in complex systems (the equations don’t exist; ones we have sensitive to small errors in parameterization) “Uncertainty keeps increasing with the more research money they put in” Pioneer climate scientist Manabe But ... Simple predictions possible Model to better understand the present, system fragilities (tundra), possible future scenarios Learn from innovation histories, innovation research Uncertainty leads to polarization 17
- 18. Basin responses with global relevance We have the list ... 18
Editor's Notes
- A woman listens with other demonstrators, who demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi, to a speech during a march in Tunis, Tunisia, on Jan. 19, 2011.Cell phones and social media enabled the Arab Spring by allowing people to organize and get their message out. Video clips shown on World Media, Blogs, etc. Arab Spring some say in response to demographics – young populations without a voice.
- Adoption of combine harvesting drives people out of work, requires changes in field size. Itself a response to labour-shortage as people go to the cities, sucked in in part
- A complex adaptive system consists of one or more populations of agents, along with the artifacts (e.g., things, technologies, databases, etc) and strategies (including norms) that they use. An agent is an entity, such as an individual or organization, which has agency, i.e. can make thing happen. In a CAS, the agents use strategies in their interactions with other agents and with artifacts. The agents evaluate the subsequent results of these interactions and as a result select to copy strategies or artifacts, or recombine or invent new ones. Copying itself is error prone. This evolutionary process of selecting what works, copying, recombining and inventing constantly introduces novelty. Over time, the evolutionary process changes the frequency and variation of types of agents, strategies and artifacts as the populations of “fitter” agents, strategies and artifacts increases in relation to others
- GCM