Technological change as driver and response (CPWF GD workshop, September 2011)


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By Boru Douthwaite. As part of a CPWF September 2011 workshop in Thailand regarding global drivers. We have divided driver types into five categories:
1. Demographic/Social,
2. Economic,
3. Political/Institutional/Legal,
4. Environmental/Climate change,
5. Technological/ Innovations

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  • Technological change as driver and response (CPWF GD workshop, September 2011)

    1. 1. TechnologicalChange as Driver and Response Boru Douthwaite
    2. 2. Two parts Technological change as both driver and response What Basin Teams should know?2
    3. 3. 3
    4. 4. Technological change is both driver and response4
    5. 5. Before… and after the project. (Photograph by Olivier Joffre)CRESMIL impact in Vietnam, showing what is possible Mr. Nguyen Hoang Ben Ap Lung Chim, Xa Dinh Thanh, Dong Hai.
    6. 6. 7
    7. 7. 8
    8. 8. 9 Xiaowan Dam, China
    9. 9. Technological change as a global driver? Technological change happens everywhere Lever of riches  Mokyr –defining feature of successful civilizations (China, Europe) Technological changes that count as global drivers  Information revolution  Brainstorming ......10
    10. 10. What drives technology change in agriculture? 1 kWhr costs 10 cents 1 person can work continuously at 30 W 33 hrs to earn 10 cents? Substituting fossil for human power drives TC in ag  US agriculture uses 45 times more energy than traditional agriculture  Doubling or trebling of energy costs won’t reverse the trend11
    11. 11. Trends versus drivers Dramatic weather events Food crisis threaten global security Impending water wars Fossil fuels running out Rising political power of ‘developing nations’ Saving forests makes money Faith traditions support stewardship Younger generations demand action12
    12. 12. Technological responses in basins with global relevance Brainstorm  Global drivers  Demographic, social, economic  Climate change and environmental  Political and institutional  Basins13
    13. 13. What basin teams should know How technological change happens How research can be used as a lever of technological change What basin responses / trends (i.e., aggregate behavioural change) have global relevance14
    14. 14. How technological change happens An emergent property Of multitude interaction between people going through individual and social learning cycles An evolutionary process15
    15. 15. Research as lever of technological change Manage research process to make beneficial emergence more likely  The levers  Novelty  Selection  Interaction  Motivation  Reducing uncertainty Work with partners in spotting early emergence, stabilize and amplify16
    16. 16. Reducing uncertainty Technically, impossible to predict emergence in complex systems (the equations don’t exist; ones we have sensitive to small errors in parameterization)  “Uncertainty keeps increasing with the more research money they put in” Pioneer climate scientist Manabe But ...  Simple predictions possible  Model to better understand the present, system fragilities (tundra), possible future scenarios  Learn from innovation histories, innovation research Uncertainty leads to polarization17
    17. 17. Basin responses with global relevance We have the list ...18