Presentation given at the seminar "The expansion of higher education in Brazil: new research perspectives" at the Institute of Education (IoE) of University College London (UCL) in London/UK in June/2015. The presentation aimed to discuss two main questions: What are the differences and similarities between higher education expansion in Brazil and in other emerging countries? What role has distance learning played in the expansion of Brazilian higher education?

1. The expansion of Higher Education in emerging countries:
the boom of distance education in Brazil and India
Bruno Morche
Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil
UCL/ Institute of Education
Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) - Brazil

2. Introduction
 Key trends in HE in emerging countries:
- General belief in the need to develop mass HE system: growing recognition of personal
and societal benefits of HE
- The idea of “catching-up” with developed countries
- Growing demand for HE (recent expansion/universalization of basic education)
- The Increase of private provision and funding (Market provision)
 Question: What role is distance education playing in the expansion of Higher Education in
emerging countries?

3. Higher education expansion in the world
- From 1970 to 2012 growth of 499,88%.
- An acceleration from late 1990s to 2012.
- Worldwide student numbers is forecast to
attain 262 million by 2025. Nearly all of this
growth will be in the developing world, with
more than half in China and India alone.
World enrolments (million)

4. The expansion has ocurred mainly in emerging
countries...

5. Inversion in the proportion...
Proportion of enrolments in
the world
Emerging
countries
Developed
countries

6. The largest HE systems in the world
Number of enrolments of the five largest HE systems in the world (1999-2012)
Fonte: UNESCO, 2012.
China; 32,5 mi
India; 28,5 mi
United States;
20,9 mi
Russia; 7,9 mi
Brazil; 7,2 mi
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China India United States Russia Brazil

7. Higher education enrolments in the world

8. Brazil and India: some facts
Population GDP GDP growth
forecast 2015
Nº of students
enrolled
India 1,210,193,422 $2.049 trillion +7.6% (1st) 28.5 Million
Brazil 202,768,562 $2.846 trillion -1.2% (54th) 7.2 Million

9. Distance Education in HE in India
 India is witnessing some of the fastest rates of adoption for distance learning (Hannover, 2011; The Economist, 2010).
 Enrolment in open and distance learning grew rapidly between 2006-07 and 2011-12, from 2.741M to 4.201M.
 Apart from the Indira Gandhi National Open University (public), there are 13 State Open Universities (public) and 183
other Distance Education Institutions (DEIs) (public or private)
 Enrolment in DEIs that includes at least 44 private institutions grew most rapidly over 10 per cent per year during that
period.
 “vast potential in a country like India with millions of young aspirants eager to receive higher education and with
conventional universities and colleges simply not being in a position to accommodate them” (Commonwealth of
Learning, 2007)
2006/07 2010/11
Indira Gandhi National Open University 468,000 697,000
State Open Universities 777,000 1,080,000
Distance Education Institutions 1,496,000 2,424,000
Total 2,741,000 4,201,000
16.5% of HE
enrolmentsINDIA
Source: Indian Distance Education Council.

10. India and the demand-supply gap: towards
for-profit education?
Source: Planning Comission – Government of India.
Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017)

11. Brazil’s HE system: two waves of expansion
 In the 1990s more children accessed school and as a result demand for higher education grew.
 The high cost of fully funding public institutions meant that private-sector expansion was the easiest option.
 But with little government oversight and “inexperienced clients”, the sector’s reputation was low. (offering
worthless degrees).
1st wave
1960 55.9% public sector.
1970 49.0% public sector.
1975 38.0% public sector.
2nd wave
1995 60.2% private sector
2000 67.8% private sector.
2010 75.0% private sector

12. Distance education in Brazil and for-profit institutions
Institution Private Group
Graduates
Nº of
courses Enrolments
UNIVERSIDADE NORTE DO PARANÁ Grupo Kroton + Anhanguera 30,809 19 254,893
UNIVERSIDADE ANHANGUERA - UNIDERP Grupo Kroton + Anhanguera 18,269 18 107,909
CENTRO UNIVERSITÁRIO INTERNACIONAL Grupo UNINTER 17,450 16 98,727
UNIVERSIDADE PAULISTA Private non-profit 7,076 15 87,803
CENTRO UNIVERSITÁRIO LEONARDO DA VINCI Grupo Kroton + Anhanguera 5,969 29 81,717
UNIVERSIDADE ESTÁCIO DE SÁ Grupo Estácio Participações 3,091 32 45,732
CENTRO UNIVERSITÁRIO UNISEB Grupo Estácio Participações 3,527 13 35,750
Total 86,191 142 712,531
Brazil 161,072 1,258 1,153,572
* Kroton_+Anhanguera is the largest
private educational group in the world
423.175
712.531
507.004
441.041
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2013
Distance education enrolments in Brazil (2010-2013)
Largest private educational groups in
the world (Market Value - U$ bi)

13. Concern at stake: Quality X Quantity
““Quality [in education] is easy,” says Rodrigo Galindo, Kroton’s energetic young boss. “And
so is quantity. What’s difficult is combining the two.” The trick, he explains, is to abandon
“handcrafted” teaching methods for scalable ones: online course materials and tutors; star
teachers’ lessons broadcast by satellite; tightly specified franchise agreements with hundreds
of local teaching centres staffed by moderators.” (The Economist, July/2014)

14. Distance Education in Brazil and India
Brazil India
Allows for-profit institutions For-profit institutions are not
allowed
% of enrolments ~16% ~15-25% (it depends on statistic source)
Type of institution
predominant
Large private for-profit
universities with regional centres
and some courses in public
institutions
Large public open universities
(national and state) and private
non-profit HEI (huge growth)
Institution size Largest HEIs Largest HEIs
Areas Mainly applied social sciences
(eg business, management,
accounting)
Wide range of areas
Main concerns Quality / System assessment Quality / System assessment

15. Boosters: Growing demand and
technological spread
 Still huge demand for HE and the “catching up” + Ubiquitous technological spread:
- Even with the currently expansion, HE access is still restrict: even in China (largest system in the world),
India (3rd) and Brazil (5th).
- Gross enrolment rate is still low: To achieve a HE gross enrolment rate of the developed ones, these
countries will need about over 100 million places.
o Sudden technological spread
- Number of internet users:
India (3rd in the world): 243M (1 year growth: 14% = ~30 million)
Brazil (5th): 107M
- Number of mobile phones:
India (2nd): 970 million (1,2bi)
Brasil (4th): 278 million (202M)

16. Main charecteristics of distance learning
in emerging countries
 Diversification:
- Older students;
- Students who work 40 hours a week or more
- Poorer students;

17.  A HE model of expansion?
 Could we say we are going to see a model of expansion based on distance learning
for-profit instituitions (or maybe non-profit)?
 Will the surging demand be met by [international] chains of for-profit HE providers
delivering skills & vocational degrees via distance education courses? and hence the
concern of Government is not as a funder/provider but as a regulator in terms of
consumer protection?
 Sum-formula: Demand + Scalability/Massification + low cost = Big business?
 Risks: Inequitable acess to HE; Poor quality and stratification; Public benefit of HE?

18. Thank you
Bruno Morche
Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil
UCL/ Institute of Education
Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) – Brazil
Email: bruno.morche.14@ucl.ac.uk

19. Higher education enrolments around the
world