2016 Leaders of Energy without Borders - USA Group
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joint webcast and presentation with USA : launching new shared market initiative on Leadership outreach and programs on Energy & Sustainability: Leaders (of Energy) without Borders.
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2016 Leaders of Energy without Borders - USA Group
- 1. 2015 Year of Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable Development post-2015 Agenda Leaders of Energy without Borders 17th December 2015: Open Google Hangout Adriaan Kamp
- 2. Adriaan Kamp 2009- - Energy For One World A practice on Global Change, Energy and Leadership. Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership Education 20 years Industry/Shell International : Upstream ( 5 Countries and HQ).
- 3. Contents of Session 1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015 2. Paris COP21 3. Year 2016: Leaders of Energy without Borders
- 4. UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3) Paris Agreement
- 5. Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development 12/16/15 Clickable Video Presentation
- 7. 16.12.15 Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments • Economic and finance system change and fundamentals • A new technological era • Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations • Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for wealth justice • Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities • Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets Global Change
- 10. BP Energy Outlook 2035 12/16/15
- 11. Linear (logarithmic) relation between Energy Consumption and GDP 12/16/15 Source: Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute, 2014
- 12. 12 2014 2030-2050 7 Billion People 9 Billion People 90 trillion USD economy 180-210 trillion USD 225 million oil eq/day 500- 750 million oil eq/day 400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century ??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
- 13. BRIC: It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of our people You’ll fix whatever you want to fix! The West: “If you do as I have done it will be a mess.” Let us all change- rapidly Let’s secure our nation, people and planet Emerging: Will there be enough for us? Can i afford it? Who will deliver it to me? The poor: When will we see electricity and get mobility? Opec and GasPec: You need us! We can deliver your needs! What is all that fuzz about Availability and climate change?
- 14. G7 and the next 100 years
- 15. Pope Francis and his Encyclical – on Poverty and the Environment
- 16. UN Sustainable Development Goals
- 17. How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world – reliably, sustainably, affordable, and in harmony? Can we build Sustainable Societies for all? 17
- 18. Contents of Session 1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015 2. Paris COP21 3. Year 2016: Leaders of Energy without Borders
- 19. Year 2015 – A Pivot Year • Feb: February 5-7 – Delhi Sustainable Development Summit | New Delhi, India • March: Returns in from Voluntary Contributions INDC. • May : 12-13 – Bonn Conference for Global Transformation | Bonn, Germany / 2nd annual United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Forum from 17-21 May New York • June: UN Vienna Energy Forum 18-20 June; 18th June: Pope Encyclical. • July: 7-10 – Our Common Future under Climate Change | Paris, France; Addis Ababa Accord- Financing for Sustainable Development- 13- 16 July • September: 25-27 UN General Assembly/ SDG post-2015 • December: Paris Climate Change Agreement - Nov 30-Dec 11
- 20. UN FCCC COP21 Paris Two weeks Global Conference and Actions 12/16/15
- 21. UN FCCC COP21 Paris (2)
- 22. UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3) Paris Agreement Adaptation capacity-building climate finance Compliance intended nationally determined contributio loss and damage Mitigation national reporting Paris Outcome REDD/REDD+ Technology technology mechanism
- 23. UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3) COP 21 Conclusion
- 24. 2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
- 25. Contents of Session 1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015 2. COP21 3. Year 2016: Leaders of Energy without Borders
- 26. Year 2016 Agenda How can we organize ourselves to support and achieve these three Objectives? 1.Support the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2.Implement the Paris Agreement 3.Provide Energy to our Societies
- 27. Clickable Access to Report
- 28. UN Regional Blocks Countries Cities Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
- 29. Old vs New Clickable Presentations Vs 250 Bn USD investment
- 30. Click to Go To Website Germany: An example how it works- in real
- 33. AND WHERE IT ALL MATTERS..
- 35. The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada The top 10 cities by population: 1. Tokyo, (34 million) 2. Seoul (24.4 million) 3. Guangzhou (24.2 million) 4. Mexico City (23.4 million) 5. Delhi (23.2 million) 6. Mumbai (22.8 million) 7. New York (22.2 million) 8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million) 9. Manila (19.6 million) 10.Shanghai (19.4 million) All above fit comfortably into the list Of Top-50 nations by population
- 37. Click to Go to C40.org
- 38. New Possibility Thinking (1) Mission Innovation
- 39. New Possibility Thinking (2) International Solar Alliance
- 40. New Possibility Thinking (3) Largest Solar Farm (First Solar) 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr 3500 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels
- 41. New Possibility Thinking (4) Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s 4 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr An offshore area of 100km2 175 wind turbines Two offshore substations Nearly 450km of offshore cabling One onshore substation 630MW of electricity Enough power for nearly half a million homes
- 42. New Possibility Thinking (5): New distributed utility Largest Ore Wind Farm’s
- 43. New Possibility Thinking (6) Solar City- A New Value Proposition
- 44. New Possibility Thinking (7) Car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future. (Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self- driving and navigating new car concepts)
- 45. New Possibility Thinking(8) Smart Cities The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000 Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities: • C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc. • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India • King Abdullah + Economic CitIES, Saudi Arabia • e.g. China Tianjin Development • •PM Modi’s 100 smart cities •King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
- 46. New Possibility Thinking (9) Better Architecture- Zero, Zero-Plus and more 12/16/15
- 47. New Possibility Thinking (10) RE-100 Group
- 48. New Possibility Thinking (11) Energy Project Finance
- 49. New Possibility Thinking (12) Finance, Banks and Insurers
- 50. World Power Sector (electricity only- ~30% world energy)- IEA, June 2015
- 51. 51
- 52. From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio- political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. 52 Energy Architecture
- 54. Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation” 1 2 3 4 5
- 55. “Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan Kamp, 2015 55
- 56. Building New Bridges on Energy & Sustainability Focus – Impact- Meaning- Results
- 58. New International Value Drivers for Change (year 2016 and beyond) 1.Support the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2.Implement the Paris Agreement 3.Provide Energy to our Societies
- 60. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Editor's Notes
- Hello!
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- Clickable Presentation- directly to webcast of Cop21
- And that brings me to the extra-ordinary lecture series of Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: The Age of Sustainable Development "The Age of Sustainable Development" gives students an understanding of the key challenges and pathways to sustainable development - that is, economic development that is also socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable. This open COURSERA course provides an introduction to the interdisciplinary field of sustainable development, drawing on the most recent developments in the social, policy, and physical sciences. Sustainable development is the most urgent challenge facing humanity. The fundamental question is how the world economy can continue to develop in a way that is socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable. The course describes the complex interactions between the world economy and the Earth's physical environment. Ecological processes and constraints (climate, disease ecology, physical resources such as soils and energy sources, topography and transport conditions) significantly shape the patterns of economic development, demography, and wealth and poverty. At the same time, human activities (farming, land use, urbanization, demographic change, and energy use) change the physical environments, increasingly in dangerous ways. The course offers a broad overview of the key challenges and potential solutions to achieve sustainable development in the 21st century. https://www.coursera.org/course/susdev I suggest you register and learn.
- Now- and if we look at the latest dashboard on our socio-economic and ecological dashboard of plant earth- then the aggregate of our human development looks seriously go-ing off-chart. The new and up-to-date Planetary dashboard, and presented at the latest World Economic Forum in Davos- shows- shows our “Great Acceleration” in human activity since 1950. Human activity, predominantly the global economic system, is now the prime driver of change in the Earth System (the sum of our planet's interacting physical, chemical, biological and human processes), according to a set of 24 global indicators, or “planetary dashboard”, published in the journal Anthropocene Review (16 January 2015). It is difficult to overestimate the scale and speed of change. === In a single lifetime humanity has become a planetary-scale geological force,” says lead author Professor Will Steffen, who led the joint project between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Press release | A decade on, IGBP in collaboration with the Stockholm Resilience Centre has reassessed and updated the Great Acceleration indicators, first published in the IGBP synthesis, Global Change and the Earth System in 2004. Paper The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 15 January 2015. Data download Great Acceleration data (excel 2007, 364.7 kB) When we first aggregated these datasets, we expected to see major changes but what surprised us was the timing. Almost all graphs show the same pattern. The most dramatic shifts have occurred since 1950. We can say that around 1950 was the start of the Great Acceleration,” said Professor Steffen, a researcher at the Australian National University and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The bulk of economic activity, and so too, for now, the lion’s share of consumption, remain largely within the OECD countries, which in 2010 accounted for about 74% of global GDP but only 18% of the global population. This points to the profound scale of global inequality, which distorts the distribution of the benefits of the Great Acceleration and confounds international efforts, for example climate agreements, to deal with its impacts on the Earth System. However, the paper shows that recently, global production, traditionally based within OECD countries, has shifted towards BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Moreover, the mushrooming middle classes in BRICS nations are driving greater consumption here too. About one half of the global population now lives in urban areas and about third of the global population has completed the transition from agrarian to industrial societies. This shift is evident in several indicators. Most of the post-2000 rise in fertilizer consumption, paper production and motor vehicles has occurred in the non-OECD world. This new “planetary dashboard” highlights how the trajectories of Earth and human development are now lightly bound. The findings will be presented at this weeks World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, 21-24 January.
- And let’s look at The Global Energy Challenge- as we today know and have come to see it. Our world is also under rapid construction and development, with new wealth and wealth distribution being created, every day, and in an unprecedented speed. Over the coming two to three decades some 3 billion people in Asia, Middle-East & Africa, Latin-America are expected to join the new global middle-class and are to enjoy the same consumption patterns in their homes, in their offices and in their transportation as in the OECD and upper middle class families in the emerging and developing nations.[1] By the mid of the century, we expect we will be living with 9 billion people- sharing one planet. As we look at the world of today- and tomorrow- we can see great political, economic, social- , technological , ecological and organizational shifts taking place in our society, in our economies and – well- in – the biosphere of our planet and in nature. In simple terms. You cannot have a thriving and vibrant economy, if you donot have a healthy and peaceful society – in well-being. And you cannot have a society – at peace, well-being and wealthy- if the nature system around it cannot support it. So in essence: Our coming decades is – by some UN experts such as jeffrey Sachs called the Age of Sustainable Development: === Leadership over our economies, and in our industries such as the Energy sector- more and more is in need of a new balancing act: attuning corporate strategies, business innovation and organizational forms” with that of the ”dynamic contect change” and societal needs and realities they find themselvesin. In simple terms. You cannot have a thriving and vibrant economy, if you donot have a healthy and peaceful society – in well-being. And you cannot have a society – at peace, well-being and wealthy- if the nature system around it cannot support it. So in essence: Our coming decades is – by some UN experts such as jeffrey Sachs called the Age of Sustainable Development: Our key change challenge is to realize healthy and stable economies within healty, peaceful and vibrant societies- in respect of each other and in balance with nature. Nature needs to be sustainable as a supporting frame in order to maintain the rest. It’s that easy.
- Well – one of the elements, and a rather key one, in our today’s “sustainability” is the current state and prognosis of the effects of our carbon (and methane) emissions in the atmosphere. It will be the center of attention over coming year, as end 2015, and in Paris, world leaders have agreed to agree on a next realm of agreement on carbon emission post-2015. In fact- the agreement is only to come into effect after 2020. You may look at these risks as a probability- or a unproven perception- but the fact of the matter is, is that a global community of experts and key scientists find this serious enough to raise the alarm bells on the state we are in, and the pathways of progress we today- and collectively- have. I suggest you watch the documentary movie Earth2100 attached in this handout- and to give you a better impression of what this sustainabilty change challenge is about. Now one other thing you may and can know today: the global energy sector, more specifically- the fossil fuel industry- is here the culprit., ie. the largest emitter of carbon emission in the atmosphere. And to be honost- the damage has been done.
- Add to that the concerning observation from the established energy intelligence experts, including institutes like IEA: Oil, Coal and Gas to continue to rise, and to remain at least 80% of the total fuel mix for decades to come.. And you may understand that we are – collectively- on a scary or perhaps not so healthy pathways:
- And to be a bit more precise and give you some more details on the correlation between Energy Consumption and GDP : please find attached slide from Jeffrey Sachs of the Columbia Earth Institute on Energy Consumption and GDP
- The question is: Can we energize ourselves safely and sustainably into this future world? From a 7 billion population towards a 9 billion global community From a 90 trillion USD to a 180-210 trillion USD From 225 boeq towards 500-750 boeeq- if nothing dramatically changes. And as today- and that is a fact – we have already ‘polluted” the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 – enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century. Add to that the Great Acceleration and the many other planetary boundaries we are seemingly at ease are crossing… Now – how do are we to do this – and how are we go-ing from here? === Energy is vital and essential to modern day life. In fact, the wealthier you become, the more energy you are likely to use. That feels logical. [2] Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5] The question is: Can we ënergize ourselves safely into this world? As today- and that is a fact - we already have ‘polluted” the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 – enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century. So- Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble, as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. And we will have surely exceeded an acceptable carbon emission levels- endangering our lives and species for decades, if not centuries to come. The present trend is exactly that. So, over the next decades, - in fact today and tomorrow- the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge. And that is You & me! The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure? How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view? So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.). [1] UN report, McKinsey report: The next 3 billion [2] See graph UNDP [3] 1boe = 1564 kilowatt-hours (kWh). Note that today’s energy consumption per capita is 2.3 kW or 55 kWh per day. There are big differences around the world (China: less than 2 kW; US: more than 11 kW). [4] BP 2030 Energy Future Report ( central source report for our study!) [5] Energy Future Project- Berkhout, de Ridder & Kamp [6] E.g. micro-grids, smart and supergrids [7] In this respect: oil and/or gas reserves
- Now to continue, and in simple terms, in the energy landscape of the world - we can today see the following type of conversations… So how are we going to share one planet and ideally staying out of trouble? Well, and to start, and in a very simplified way- the countries presently divide themselves in resource [7] rich (exporting) countries or in energy (poor, importing) countries. So, this creates a world picture in Five (Energy) Clusters: OECD, or the West- The high consumers of the past, present andperhaps the future China, and BRICS /MIST- The new parties in town Saudi and OPEC/Russia and Gaspec- The oil and Gas “cursed” nations India and leading emerging nations- Ready to join The Very poor- How can we join? These clusters have all their own pattern of energy architecture and behaviors and politics. Now the question here is: how these clusters of nations are going to inter-relate, behave and develop over the coming decades? Will there be a free and open market for energy and energy supplies, or will we there be more retrenchment and competition, and jockeying for position? Will parties decide to make isolated decisions and Machiavellian policies and in order to optimize own outcomes and advantages or will we see a new form of collaboration benefitting the common good and all?
- So- the principle question we may ask ourselves: How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world- reliably, sustainably, affordably and in harmony? And Can we build truly vibrant and sustainable societies for all? Two relative easy questions to ask- but as you may understand and agree with me - not such easy questions to answer.. Well- let’s have a look at them…
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- As the road on the discussions and dialogues on the planetary boundaries – at the highest political level- has been a bumpy and lengthy one. Well- it all started with the Visionary Project and Modelling work of the Club of Rome, back in the 60’s. It’s first report and publication was actually not at all that well received. In fact- the leading politicians and business man from and in that time, all fervent advocates of unconstrained economic growth- boo-boo’d the club members away , almost in oblivion- and depicted them as poor or bad news prophets…. It was the work and careful leadership of Gro Brundtland, and ex Norwegian PM and the Rio Earth Summit which created new hopes and new inspiration that the United Leadership of the world, or the UN, would and could come to grasp with the finite planet- and the needs of it’s today’s people and future generations. The Rio Earth summit became and was generally felt (by politics and business community) as a success. The definition and development of the UN Millennium Goals and the UN capacity and capability program roll-out (e.g. end of poverty, child education, disease control, food for every person, etc. etc.) is and could be seen a showcase what a collective community and spirit of world leadership can achieve. However- the subsequent years of negotiations for an agreement on the planetary boundaries or climate became cumbersome. “Milestones” of Al Gore’s inconvenient Truth or the Copenhagen COP-15 made Climate Change initially Top of Agenda, but the failure to reach an agreement became also a sign of a world order in dynamic change, and a world order no longer aligned and attuned to the principles of the initial agreements. In fact, Rio+20, the conference in Brazil in 2012 – gave birth and signs of new political block battles between the Rich and the Poor, and the East and the West: OECD vs. BRICS, ChINdia and G77. Sustainability or Sustainable Development from now were no longer a case of environmental or ecological protection, only No- the fact of the matter is and was- and in the words of former President of China Mr. Hu : People and People development First. Sustainability and Sustainable development became more directly linked and related to the economies, the social development of the various member states.- and whereby the richer countries are to “give”’ more to the more “poorer’ nations. In addition- and as part of the Climate Change,Safety & Social Justice negotiations – finance became an important element in the negotiations – whereby again - the more richer nations needed “to speak” with more cash (money on the table) in order to alleviate, help and restore the damage done to the poorer or more vulnerable nations (e.g. Bangladesh, Small Island States). That brings us to 2015. Till today. Following the success of the Millenium Development Goals, Secretary Ban-Ki Moon and with the help of special advisor Jeffrey Sachs have embarked on a journey of the development of a new and very exciting “capacity and capability program for the world”,- a new landing on the moon mission- and for the years (decades) to come: The so-called post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals… And that process is going “remarkably smooth” between the relevant stakeholders in the community of nations. What is more open is… === Let me quote some text here from there website: In April 1968, a small international group of professionals from the fields of diplomacy, industry, academia and civil society met at a quiet villa in Rome. Invited by Italian industrialist Aurelio Peccei and Scottish scientist Alexander King, they came together to discuss the dilemma of prevailing short-term thinking in international affairs and, in particular, the concerns regarding unlimited resource consumption in an increasingly interdependent world. …. The international effects of this publication in the fields of politics, economics and science are best described as a ‘Big Bang’: over night, the Club of Rome had demonstrated the contradiction of unlimited and unrestrained growth in material consumption in a world of clearly finite resources and had brought the issue to the top of the global agenda. End Quote- So much from this think-tank.
- So- and in a nutshell- we are not sure about our near-to-mid term future. On Energy that is. And how it will serve our Economies and Societies and in relation to Nature. No one can. No one can be sure. No matter who you are in our Energy Sector, or what Professional expertise you carry- be it the CEO of one of the largest Oil & Gas Companies, the State Minister or Leader of a country, An economist in an Energy institute, watchdog or block- our future is uncertain. There are some serious black swans, red post signals and signs and un-clarities (in relation, in demand needs and supply reserves, in capacity and cost development, on sustainability, etc. etc.) which causes us to frown our eyebrows. And there are also some “very bright and light” examples –name it- white swans- which make me (or us) smile. Add them all together- and the simple truth is : we don’t know how it all adds-up. And that is already a good thing to know: To acknowledge that we donot know how our energy markets, and our world energy system- will behave over the next one to two decades. I can say this with some clear certainty- as I have had the pleasure and insight of the Best of the West and the Most of the East is willing and able to offer or share. So – our individual and collective approach to our Global Change Challenge- and Energy & Sustainabilty Challenge- does matter. It’s crucial. Therefore I am so excited about this special lecture series. To my mind: This gap in knowledge and this sure-certainty in some of the behaviours of the players in our world energy system- and thus the performance of our energy architectures on location – is a problem or change challenge which can ideally be solved best within the Brotherhood of Energy Professionals. We have two options: Either we continue to compete across the silo’s , the energy value chain- between countries and companies- and hold our own cards to our chest- or we elect to come to a better grasp to what needs doing: on location, in the regions and on aggregate. That’s is the focus of this special lecture series. How can we do that?
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- And I just want to flag to you- one of the flagship projects within the UNSDSN organisation- the so-called Deep-decarbonization project. With an assembled scientific team- the organisation has and is going to look into every country, every energy architecture on this planet- and will propose pathways of how that economy, that country, that energy architecture will be able to come to a zero-emission infrastructure by 2050. Quite ambitious. But also actually quite needy- to bring to the attention. Now=- the study is still in the academic realms, and doesnot test itself against the forces and changes needed at policy makers, industry , economy or organizations in order to make it true. That’s the addition this lecture series bring to you. Our lecture series is about the pragmatics. About how we – the true energy professional- can start talking and walking the path of renewal. Of getting safe- and to stay out of trouble.
- Now to bring about true and lasting Integration, Transition and Transformation in our Societies- we need Vision and we need the skills and possibilities to influence, agree, decide, organize and realize. ‘This influence’ can be done at a Global Level (think UN, G20, BRICS, OECD, Opec, IEA, IEF) – and this influence and realization can be on lower levels: in cities and in communities. The Energy Business community, especially the larger-scale energy companies, be it state -be it private or stock-listed- is where today’s realities are be-ing executed- and futures can be build. Overall- and across the globe- the energy business community are the shapers and builders of our energy future. Now in the X-factor of tomorrow- I see this Business community, the energy professionals so to speak- assuming a much larger role in the stewardship over the energy architecture development, as done generally today- securing sustainable development. The beauty is- that energy professionals around the globe are connected. Horizontally across the value chains and in each Sector (be it oil, coal, renewables). Now- if we aspire to rapidly accelerate and step-up our Vision on Building truly vibrant and Sustainable Societies- then I see that the leaders in and over these energy companies AND the energy professionals within these companies can open-up and zipper. To open-up and build the new bridges for our new realities- from local, regional and global- and collectively create a new elevated construct of energy architectures. To my mind- this is a crucial element in the post-2015 UN SDSN development goals – re-inveting our established frameworks and organisations- if we are to succeed in its mission and delivery.
- But the future can be read and seen by the many “light-houses”, the innovation and change programs scattered around the globe. The signals and signs of new energy architecture become more and more real visible in the personal car mobility- where a wave and convergence of three technologies is going to smarten the car as we know it- from self-driving, self navigating and electric driven cars- we , and according to Industry expert- we are expected to see a “big shift” in consumer buying power and needs from 2020 onwards.. Another shift is and can already been seen around the houses: from distributed, microgrids, off-grids, self powered and heated homes- as now promoted by companies such as E-on in Germany and Solar City of Elon Musk or the Smart Cities of China, Middle-East and India… It's actually quite simple. On the moment that we embrace the principle from Me to We, and that our company or work is 'in service' of the wider community and we start taking decisions based on that principle -included the needs for future generations- our future flows and falls into place..As I spoke earlier briefly on the opportunity for the Energy Sector to embrace New Visions and New Architectures befit for the 21st century -and now on "Avant-garde" Leaders such as Carlos Ghosn (Renault/Nissan), Google Self driving cars, Elon Musk with Solar City and Tesla, E-on Company of Germany, Sustainable Housing and City Planners in North-West Europe - or the Sustainable Cities in UAE-Masdar, China- Tijanjin, Chonqing, Saudi Arabia, or the 100 smart cities of PM Modi of India- demonstrating to us the way and ways by which new energy architectures are today possible, feasible and scale-able.But they do not come by itself.Actually- they thrive best if we can create the "winning community constellations" in the market, customers, governments (/policy makers) , investment community, suppliers and energy service companies on location- "in- one-go".In the words of Carlos Ghosn:Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled PLV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts)The same is true for the roll-out of Solar City or the new E-on's . There where the technical/market eco-system is supportive and adaptive to embrace the changed and new-styled distributed energy architectures across urban communities- the flywheel will start to spin..Traditionally - the energy sector is quite conservative and hierarchical, and furthermore orientated towards the supply-side of the equation: Those sitting on the upstream reserves (be it coal, oil or gas- ie. the money) determine to a large degree the project, sales and infrastructure development of the energy sector over the value chain well into the consuming locations.However- the "new song and dance" in energy and energy architecture development may no longer be best served by this game played in corporate silo's ( top-down) , - but is most likely far better served and played if done more and more in balanced community (of the energy professionals) across the value chains.Building a "well-tuned orchestra and community" between government, business and business innovation, community which are ready, willing and prepared to realize true and truthful energy architecture innovations and changes. Big and Small.=== And we know that we have and are facing "great difficulties, complexities and challenges" in the continuance of "this great 20th century machine" in our near- and mid-term future in this industry. And not only on sustainability. Not only as we are accessing ever more remote, difficult, poisonous or environmental sensitive fields in our portfolio's of extraction and production, but also we are facing an explosion of energy demand around the globe: Now relate the above to today's approximately 250 BnUSD investment and revenue levels in the totality of the "cleantech - industry"- and the sums of money we put in R&D and innovation- and you may start to "see" and agree with me how "massively under-balanced" we yet are- in our overall world energy system: I wrote the following words (with some senior geology and energy futurists scientists) earlier: Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 500-750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5] Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble, as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. The present trend is exactly that. So, over the next decades the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge. The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure? How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view? So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.).
- Add to that- and next door to Denmark- Germany’s Energiewende, another ‘Visionary Project’-. Well this “Visionary project” did not just come about in a year (2011). It is rooted in the anti-nuclear movement of the 70s and brings together both conserva-tives and conserva-tionists — from environmentalists to the church. The shock of the oil crisis and the meltdown in Chernobyl lead to the search for alternatives — the rise of the solar voltaic industry, the political work and philosophy of Dr. Herman Scheerr, the godfather of IRENA and the book Energy Autonomy including the invention of feed-in tariffs. There were now many good reasons for Germany to switch to renewable energy and to increase energy conservation, and there are reasons to do so now. Fighting climate change Reducing energy imports Stimulating technology innovation and the green economy Reducing and eliminating the risks of nuclear Energy security Strengthening local economies and providing social justice. So- the drivers for change has not been ONE but many- and different for different interest groups- and over time. And that is very important for us to understand.
- Open Conversation and Consultation rounds. Combining Global with Local- and the individual perspectives and needs: identifying and defining the common ground for change, the direction of change and the value drivers for change.
- Translating the “Change Program”- in concrete and specific working programs and projects. As we are talking about the Change in our Energy and Energy Architecture- these programs can be rather long-term, and can be in analogy with the ways the traditional energy industry (Oil & Gas) has become used to working.
- Building Sustainable Comunities Let’s look at this Energy For All iniative – and let’s start to look at the bottom of the pyramide The poor and rural communities. How are we to progress sustainable communities and how are we to bring energy to these villages? I come with two examples. One from India and one from Pakistan. And I will speak on the one in Pakistan only. In Pakistan, led by Dr. Akhter Hameed Khan, some very innovative work has been done to develop knowledge systems to support and maintain sustainable communities. In brief this work has consisted of: Mapping of local infrastructures and experiences, land us practices and physical structures Linking the rural with the national or global d evelopments: The knowledge and social capital generated through this physical and social mapping process has been integrated with large government and corporate sector development plans under the UN framework And making better use of Local Youth is trained and employed for mapping, local dialogue and gainful employment. These young workers also build bridges between the community and outside world (Context) As a matter of fact, the process of globalization has also led to (the process of) commercialization of rural village – of the agricultural, pastoral and fishing and hunting communities. This process has- at times- been accompanied by a intrusion of the physical, social and knowledge space of isolated rural settlements. Consequently land use, management of e.g. forest and natural resources, and traditional energy and water use practices have changed to the detriment of local environment and livelihood. In numerous communities socially responsible professionals and civil society organizations have initiated the sustainable development process of developing a more local body of knowledge, tools and programs to restore ecological balance, mitigate climate change, improve natural resource management and introduce efficient energy management practices to strengthen community resilience. Maintaining and protecting tradition, and blending this with modernity there where best and needed: A new form of Eco-modernity – a new form of collaboration between the outside support and the internal community- on a micro rural scale. As such: a very subtle, human and community-friendly approach. Not judging by what we see “as poor”- but more looking with fresh eyes and listening ears to the needs and see and feel what can “be rich”. Locally – in the cultural tradition. Much more sensitive- and far less commercial driven But let me be clear. At the bottom of the pyramid- and in our global community- people need help. Without our help- these people are chanceless and suffer. To that end- all the frames and programs of Prof. Jeffrey Sachs and Kandeh Yumkella are creating deserve our utmost attention and support- whereever we can === Scope of activities This approach has been used for holistic planning at local level and included themes relating to shelter, energy efficient houses, land, forest and natural resource use planning, water management, social forestry , sanitation and solid waste management. I have already depicted some of this work through my power point slides. ==
- But the world is a busy place. And the world is under rapid construction. It was already back in 2002, that the UN started to note that the global population was rapidly migrating into urban area’s. In fact – massive urban area’s.
- IN a global research survey done by McKinsey in 2011 over the top-600 cities in the world, McKinsey surveyed how these cities were to develop over the coming 10-15 years. Some remarkable facts came above table.And in McKinsey words: Quote The urban world is shifting. Today only 600 urban centers generate about 60 percent of global GDP. While 600 cities will continue to account for the same share of global GDP in 2025, this group of 600 will have a very different membership. Over the next 15 years, the center of gravity of the urban world will move south and, even more decisively, east. Today, major urban areas in developed-regions are, without doubt, economic giants. Half of global GDP in 2007 came from 380 cities in developed-regions, with more than 20 percent of global GDP coming from 190 North American cities alone. The 220 largest cities in developing-regions contributed another 10 percent. But by 2025, one-third of these developed-market cities will no longer make the top 600; and one out of every 20 cities in emerging-markets is likely to see its rank drop out of the top 600. By 2025, 136 new cities are expected to enter the top 600, all of them from the developing world and overwhelmingly—100 new cities—from China Unquote
- And thus, and as the problems of sustainable cities became apparent- a group of majors of 18 megacities came together in London in 2005 and formed a cooperation on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The meeting resulted in an agreement to cooperate on reducing climate emissions by taking decisive and immediate action on a number of points, most notably the creation of procurement policies and alliances to accelerate the uptake of climate-friendly technologies and influence the market place. This was the start of the network. And of a more local and down-to-earth campaign and initiative. Today the group is mentioned the C-40, but has actual city membership, outreach and impact well over those 40 cities. === in the handout some more information of this City-led, Major led initiative. And You can also visit their website. The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40) is a network of the world’s megacities committed to addressing climate change. Acting both locally and collaboratively, C40 Cities are having a meaningful global impact in reducing both greenhouse gas emissions and climate risks. C40 brings together a unique set of assets and creates a shared sense of purpose. C40 offers cities an effective forum where they can collaborate, share knowledge and drive meaningful, measurable and sustainable action on climate change. The C40 Mission C40 is a global network of large cities taking action to address climate change by developing and implementing policies and programs that generate measurable reductions in both greenhouse gas emissions and climate risks. Working together since 2005 In October 2005, then Mayor of London Ken Livingstone convened representatives from 18 megacities to pursue action and cooperation on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The meeting resulted in an agreement to cooperate on reducing climate emissions by taking decisive and immediate action on a number of points, most notably the creation of procurement policies and alliances to accelerate the uptake of climate-friendly technologies and influence the market place. This was the start of the network. In 2006, Mayor Livingstone invited the Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI) to become its delivery partner, greatly strengthening both organisations with a shared sense of purpose and an efficient support network for delivering world-class projects that optimise emissions reductions. The network at this point had grown to 40 cities, and thus the name C40 was born. Serving as C40’s first Chair, Mayor Livingstone established the C40 Secretariat in London, set up the C40 Steering Committee and initiated the use of C40 workshops to exchange best practices amongst C40 Cities. In 2008, former Mayor of Toronto David Miller took over as C40 Chair. Highlights of his tenure included the Copenhagen Climate Summit for Mayors and the C40 Cities Mayors Summit in Seoul, both in 2009, as well as the launch of practical action initiatives for cities, such as the C40-CCI Climate Positive Development Programme and the Carbon Finance Capacity Building programme. In November 2010, New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg began his tenure as C40 Chair. Key milestones in 2011 include the full integration of C40 with the CCI Cities Program by which C40 executives and staff are working in unison with CCI City Directors and programmatic teams to support climate action in cities. The work that the C40 Cities accomplishes is critical for reducing carbon emissions worldwide, but there is far more to be done, as President of the C40 Board, former C40 Chair, and 108th Mayor of New York City Mayor Bloomberg explains. While international negotiations continue to make incremental progress, C40 Cities are forging ahead. Collectively they have taken more than 4,700 actions to tackle climate change, and the will to do more is stronger than ever. As innovators and practitioners, our cities are at the forefront of this issue – arguably the greatest challenge of our time. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg Another highlight of 2011 was the C40 Cities Mayors Summit in Sao Paulo, where C40 announced new partnerships with the World Bank and ICLEI—Local Governments for Sustainability—to accelerate climate action in cities through streamlined financing, greenhouse gas accounting and uniform reporting. The release of two reports developed in collaboration with Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and ARUP, respectively, emphasized the critical role of measurement and transparency in tackling climate change in megacities. Rio de Janeiro Mayor Eduardo Paes began his tenure as C40 Chair in December 2013. Leading the Way We’re proud of what cities have accomplished since 2005, and we continue to lead the way on mitigating the risks of climate change with our innovative and effective approach.
- Dimensions of the Farm: 3,5 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels If we do this 1000 times, then we can power 160 million homes= America (USA)= 30-40% of total energy. How long does it take us to get there? Understanding that doubling of capacity in the industry does take / or may take time. Assume: Only 6 hours a day 15% efficiency.
- DID YOU KNOW? Year the 1st offshore wind farm was built in Europe: 1991 Number of offshore wind farms now operating in Europe: 66 Number of people now employed in the European offshore wind industry: 58,000 World’s largest offshore wind farm: The London Array % of Denmark’s electricity supplied by wind power: 30% London ARRAY Facts and Figures An offshore area of 100km2 175 wind turbines Two offshore substations Nearly 450km of offshore cabling One onshore substation 630MW of electricity Enough power for nearly half a million UK homes a year – two thirds of the homes in Kent CO2 savings of 925,000 tonnes a year The remarkable levels of activity during 2012, with 84 foundations, 175 wind turbines, 178 array cables and three export cables installed. October that year saw the first turbine producing power, with the final one coming on line in April 2013. Since then, the operation and maintenance team has focused on the performance and output of the wind farm. Operational Milestones: London Array’s first winter of full operation (October 2013 to March 2014) saw the wind farm generate 1,500 GWh (1.5 TWh) of clean power – equivalent to the annual consumption of around 325,000 British households – and ahead of target. January 2014 was a record month with more than 306 GWh of electricity exported, some 14 GWh on 6 January alone. February came a close second with just under 306 GWh. The good performance was helped by unusually windy weather which, combined with high availability, meant the turbines were able to capitalise on the near-perfect conditions to achieve very high load factors At the end of April 2014, London Array’s net output from when the first turbine came on line reached 3 TWh – saving some 1,290,000 tonnes in carbon dioxide output. Cape Wind It is interesting to note – that the application for filing of Cape Wind was done back in 2001. It took some 14 years of legal and commercial scale preparation before construction of this project actually could take place. Cape Wind is nearing construction to become America’s first offshore wind farm. Cape Wind will consist of 130 Siemens 3.6-megawatt offshore wind turbines with a capacity of 468 megawatts. The project will be located in Federal waters off the coast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, on Horseshoe Shoal in Nantucket Sound, the most technically optimal offshore wind power site in the United States.
- "Avant-garde" Leaders such as Carlos Ghosn (Renault/Nissan), Google Self driving cars, Elon Musk with Solar City and Tesla, E-on Company of Germany, Sustainable Housing and City Planners in North-West Europe - or the Sustainable Cities in UAE-Masdar, China- Tijanjin, Chonqing, Saudi Arabia, or the 100 smart cities of PM Modi of India- demonstrate to us the way and ways by which new energy architectures are today possible, feasible and scale-able.But they do not come by itself.Actually- they thrive best if we can create the "winning community constellations" in the market, customers, governments (/policy makers) , investment community, suppliers and energy service companies on location- "in- one-go". IN the words of Carlos: Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.
- About 100% renewable power makes good business sense. By demonstrating the global business benefits of going ‘100% renewable’ RE100 will help to create a tipping point for renewable power. The Climate Group is partnering with CDP to encourage the world’s most influential businesses to join RE100 and commit to going 100% renewable. Our aim is for at least 100 companies to make a global 100% renewable commitment with a clear timeframe for reaching their goal. We are proud to be supported by IRENA and the We Mean Business coalition and will continue to grow and strengthen our partnerships to help scale renewable power.Steering Committee Mark KenberCEO, The Climate Group Mark Kenber is CEO of The Climate Group. He has worked on climate change for over 20 years. During that time he led the creation of the CDM Gold Standard, a tool for channeling carbon market investments into sustainable clean energy projects, and participated in the European Climate Change Programme working group responsible for the design of the EU ETS. Mark currently sits on the Climate Change Advisory Council at Zurich Insurance, BP’s target-neutral Assurance and Advisory Panel; the Climate Policy Editorial Advisory Board; and the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change Steering Committee. Eimear Cahalin Chief Financial Officer & Company Secretary, Mainstream Renewable Power Eimear Cahalin is the Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary at Mainstream Renewable Power. Before joining Mainstream, Eimear spent 13 years in the financial services industry. Most recently she was Head of Finance at Structured Credit Company in Dublin. Prior to that, having worked for Arthur Andersen, she spent 10 years working in the City of London for Deutsche Bank and RBS Financial Markets. Eimear specialised in financial management of global operations teams for investment banking businesses and project management of related IT initiatives. Eimear is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Ireland. Pedro FariaTechnical Director, CDP Pedro Faria is the Technical Director at CDP. He oversees the development of CDP’s information request, disclosure platform, scoring systems and data. He is a member of the Climate Disclosure Working Group and leads their XBRL efforts in the area of climate change reporting. Pedro has a deep understanding of the technical, accounting and reporting aspects of energy and carbon emissions. Kalle HashmiSenior Programme Officer – Capacity Building, IRENA Kalle Hashmi is Head of Capacity Building at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). He has worked for more than 20 years at the Swedish Energy Agency, where he represented Sweden at the European Commission, International Energy Agency (IEA), and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). Kalle is also an Associate Professor at the Royal Technical University, Sweden. Alex PerreraDirector, Renewable Energy Initiatives, WRI Alex Perera is the Director of Renewable Energy Initiatives at the World Resources Institute. He has led successful collaboration projects with multinationals in the manufacturing, retail, and technology sectors to scale use of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Prior to joining WRI in 2007, Alex has over ten years of experience in energy policy, finance, and the private sector. Andrew WinstonFounder, Winston Eco-Strategies Andrew Winston is a globally recognized expert on how companies can navigate and profit from humanity’s biggest challenges. His views on strategy have been sought after by many of the world’s leading companies, including Boeing, HP, J&J, Kimberly-Clark, PepsiCo, PwC, and Unilever. Andrew’s first book, Green to Gold, was the top-selling green business title of the last decade and was included in Inc. Magazine’s all-time list of 30 books that every manager should own. His speeches for audiences around the world, and his new book The Big Pivot, lay out a practical and optimistic roadmap for how companies can thrive in a hotter, scarcer, more open world.
- In our near future, we may best come to grasp with a new frame of “Energy Architecture” in the the energy sector- A frame based on (at least) 12-dimensions. 12 dimensions representing: People & Societies, Economy, Planetary Boundaries, Conventional Oil, coal and gas, Renewables- Sun, wind and bio, andn the Local, smart, de-central and distributed energy networks, including roll-out of energy efficiencies Our lIfestyles: Eco-conscious lifestyle- such as we can find in the Eco-villages in the west and in e.g. the rural communities of Africa and Asia We see Cities or Sustainable Cities Lifestyles And we see a lifestyle connected with High-Technology Advancement: A World Future Vision based on Science (Pulp-) Fiction, but now also more and more supported by some key research institutes: our science and technology is going to help us to create a complete new world order based on AI and perhaps abundance. And the 3 key consuming dimensions of energy Cities – and/or Sustainable Cities with energy-plus/ zero-carbon sustainable housing designs (including better materials) Transportation – in the air, on the water and on the road Industry- a selection and range of petro-chemical industry, agri-culture, etc.- now more and more in competition with nano-technology, miniaturization, 3D-printing, new material science based on AI/big computing. In other words:- So- developing and investing in an (national/ local) energy architecture becomes a little bit more than only investing or developing the supply side, or the oil, gas and coal side of the equation. Investing in an Energy Architecture now becomes a 12-dimensional frame, and whereby the stewards and stakeholders carefully review the best places to invest (or change) their time, money and resources in – in the community- and in order to achieve the best possible impact and sustainable conditions for their economies and societies – not only for the short-term, but for the years to come. And not only for the own location- but also taking the needs and demands of others and elsewhere in considerations. This new balance in investment and development in and over an Energy architecture- asks (government and business boardrooms) to change focus from a sole supply-sided focus (traditional) towards a much more balanced approach including into the realms of Economy, LifeStyle and the construct of sustainable houses and cities. an AND AND world (over 12-dimensions). And in this AND AND-world - the players in the energy architecture value chain sit (willingly) around the table, to better share and integrate their investment and dvelopment portfolio’s towards the best viable and sustainable energy architecture development concepts and solutions. For the whole. Not a private business matter, not a pure-free market play, not a play of state and governance. It is truly a new public-private compact. And that is a little bit different game than the traditional game played in the silo’s of the established large-scale energy and utility corporates – today- be it in state hands or in public listed company firms. So : Our today and tomorrow’s energy landscape asks and invites us actually to re-invent ourselves a little bit and to become a little bit more imaginative in our approaches and work collaborations in order to empower our societies and sustain our near future. The new role of the Energy Sector and Energy Professional envisioned is to become the new stewards, the new orchestra leaders- over these 12 dimensions. Why do I say that?
- Now- let’s look at what the definition of the term- “Energy Architecture- is,”: (From WEF/ Acceenture:) The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. But - The energy architecture on location is also a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. Ideally, The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. Quite interesting. But what does that mean? Best explained in a picture..
- IN this new energy vision- an individual country need is no longer served by the traditional approach, but best taking the whole value chain and energy options in one conceptual framework forwards: We balance our Vision of our Future Society with the developments within our national and global Economies, with that of the needs of sustainability (local and global) with a vision on a new energy architecture. A new X-factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation. In essence- whenever we execute a new energy infrastructure project or opportunity- we look and review the whole. And we look where we can best spend our dollars worth of money in order to leverage the value of energy. And the first step we may want to take is that of Integration.Integration is simply the art of improving and bettering the business model and relationships between the (upstream) conventional energy sector with that of the utility firms, energy distribution, renewables, cleantech, energy efficiency and products designs (housing, cars, industry). Perhaps you remember Mrs. Maria vd Hoeven of the IEA comments last year observation: the energy sector is in need of change of business model in the utility sector. Well- the good news is; The Board of Germany’s largest utility firm E-on did so and decided end last year to do so.By bettering integration between the parties we can come to new and exciting new energy architectures which can help to maximize the amount of energy return from a single gas atom, electron or photon. In our cars, homes and offices/ industries.By integrating networks (peer-to-peer micro-grids, smart local grids, national and region grids)- the energy sector will be able to combine the best of both worlds: the world of small and many in de-centralized solutions with that of the world of few and large: de world of centralized energy solutions (the present blueprint).In the world of integration- we often use the word: smartness: to embody the new possibilities of better balancing energy demand with supply over a grid system.Now the trick in realizing "integration at scale" is actually a conscious choice made in the boardrooms of the various firms: it is the willingness to allow to unlock some new magic between the business parties in the energy value chain: to review and reflect on established investment decision making and pricing mechanisms/ business models between stakeholders and shareholders in the chain.It is the willingness and abilities of business leadership to actually manage and steer this "change-of-focus" within and between the energy professionals and trade: Today’s reality is that large parts of the energy industry are actually quite conservative in nature: how hard it is to change the roles and functionalities of established discipline heads within.? How hard it is to change the focus from profitability towards maximizing energy return from an integrated value chain? How difficult is it to change from output focussed to a more sensible way of looking at what the contributions of the energy sector are towards (one's own and global) economy, society and nature?So- we need every fire-power and ammunition in order to provide these professionals with the right meaning and incentives for change: -I sincerely hope that this lecture series and the work of global leaders such as Jeffrey Sachs and Maria vd Hoeven helps..Integration also needs a strong and willing commitment to develop the right capabilities and capacities between the (upstream) oil and gas companies, the utilities, the network distribution companies and the technical service companies.This is large-scale, long-term program management.Not an art for the weak.It is the art of innovation: of making room for the new- and to allow new consortia to rise who can bring these new solutions, value and values to the table.My guess:It is about to happen. It is about to happen in a big scale. And it can truly create "new energy and excitement, new pride and passion" within and between the professionals in the energy industry and across the energy value chains.Is there a business case? You must be kidding: Just look at the facts and prognosis of what the world needs over coming decades- and how that may impact our lives and planet.. We just got to become a little bit more responsible and aware of what world we are living in.Do-ing nothing is simply not an option.Transition:Transition is actually the period of change. Whenever and where-ever boardrooms decide that today's status quo do not longer serve or guarantee a sustained future- we are and can be in transition.We open-up for the new, and allow other technical solutions and other business models and new organisations to develop or flourish. Within or outside ourselves.The word transition in energy is often used to describe the pathways moving from a dominant conventional energy infrastructure towards a (more) clean-tech, renewable, durable energy infrastructure- including the re-design of our houses, neighbourhoods, transportation and industries.Energy transition management is an art. It can be learned to leaders- and it specifically requires the abilities to change an organisation and established believes: How can we change staff and professionals who are trained and who solemnly believe in that their own profession and contributions will prevail?There are companies in this world who have demonstrated that they can change the DNA of their group: e.g. DuPont, Nokia.Resistance to change (or to energy transition) is large. Very large. In the conservative parts of the industry - in ministries or boardrooms in the emerging or developing nations, as well in the established markets of the West.Too many financial, professional , supply chain and stakeholder interests aspire to maintain or grow the status quo., or have been corrupted. To stay risk-averse- as the sums of capital and money involved, or the risks of failure or the reduction in profitability are simply too large to be carried by individual leaders.Only by having a right vision, and the right wisdom and leadership skills in a supporting context (stewards over a shared future) can we see the larger corporates to move along.In countries craving for energy- we see that energy integration and energy transition are much closer on the radar of leadership: unfortunately - and that is a truth- not all countries and not all cultures are able or fit to lead in this type of innovation.Change or transition is not without risk. Just think in terms of project and program management: the costs, times or returns from "transition/ innovation projects" are much harder to plan and predict than established blueprints. Failure is the biggest fear of many professional-amateurs in this field.Therefore I pledge that nations who can excel in innovation and who have the industrial capabilities and talent- take on this leadership role and proof and demonstrate to our world what new energy infrastructures can look like. At scale.Today - we know and can read that PM Modi of India aspires to have 100 smart cities in India. That's transition also: if Industry, Government (National or Local Authorities) and the Industry sector starts to work together: magic can be done.It's an absolutely fabulous industry with yet a huge and unlocked reservoir of re-newal (transition) potential.TransformationTransformation - is to my mind- the highest and most powerful form of change - in the three levels mentioned. It constitutes a new and shared awareness in mind. A new state of mind in and over the energy sector, over our society and our human well-being.It helps to see new essences of what may need to be done: e.g. Raising the energy sector's abilities in order to support and attain truly sustainable societies.That's a transformation of mind-set.Another transformation of mind-set is if in the ministries and boardrooms across the board we can instil the vision and passion to create energy architectures across the globe- which are durable, available, affordable and sustainable.That the energy professionals from Russia, India, China, Middle-East, Africa and the West can sit again at one table and start to honestly and openly "talk and walk " the path of super-grids, energy architecture integrations, city solutions, etc. etc.: Jointly designing and creating the next level of energy future and integration: Energy for All.-and by doing so making my newspaper reading ever so much more boring.I wish this kind of transformation- as I believe that the spirit of understanding that we all (and our children and children children) deserve and need energy in order to thrive on this planet can be helping in this matter.By instilling this story and this vision in the energy industry sector of today, and given all the geopolitics of emotions among ourselves, I believe we can help to prevent ourselves a lot of unnecessary suffering or troubles.So count me in. My practice is working on all these three levels of change-and is available to bring it to every corner of this globe.One thing I know for certain:Every nation on this planet, any energy architecture on location and in the region- can be improved upon.Can be improved on it's ways and means of Integration, Transition and Transformation- and in order to serve national and our global community.As such- I wish you a great deal of Sustainability AND Change!
- So- I dream of the moment that we can say: Energy is no longer an issue that can divide our nations, that can affect or deprive people from their economic activities, social comforts or freedom of movements- nor that it can endanger our animal life, our lands and seas or our biosphere. I dream of a world of energy abundance. I dream of a world where energy is no longer an issue of national security- but I dream of a world where we speak about making and having energy available to all.. I dream of a world, where a farmer, a manufacturer or a city community can no longer be pulled back, starved or downed by the price or the availability of energy.. I dream of a world where the exploration, production and distribution of energy is no longer a danger to our animal life, our natural land, our seas or our biosphere- and man itself. I dream of an energy industry which is truly vibrant and supportive to the rise of sustainable societies, without the spin, self-protection, defensive sustainability or riff-raff. I dream of an energy industry - healed from the (financial) interests by those who can play with prize, access, power, investment levels, and so on. I dream of a world where all the energy professionals - and across the value chains- feel part in a "global brotherhood"- an elite group of professionals- like in the health-sector- and who truly serve societies - and are organizing, empowering and enabling themselves to create the energy architectures we need.I dream of a world where the energy sector is "free of concerns" We need large-scale business innovation in the energy sector. We need to revolutionize parts of our today's 20st century energy infrastructures to a next level of sustainability. Not only to Sustain (think Lima).- but also simply to stay out of trouble (Think Nobel Peace Prize) ===== We need the energy profession, the energy corporations the business leadership of the energy corporations to become much more responsible and engaged in the actual change challenge and dimensions of the change challenge we are in. Stewardship over the Energy Architecture - by the Energy Businesses itself- in a global-, local- and corporate setting is a new and emerging business leadership role. Within the energy sector, and across the energy value chains, great political-, economic-, social-, technological-, ecological- and organizational- shifts and dynamics are taking place. Leadership over Energy corporations, today- be it in Coal, Oil & Gas, Utility, Renewables, Distribution or Energy Support firms – requires a new balancing act: attuning “corporate strategies and organizational forms” with that of the “ dynamic context change and societal needs” they are in. I dream to see those Leaders to stand-up in the larger Energy (Oil and Gas) Corporations and to start to walk this path. I dream that today's hero's and Energy & Sustainability leaders - such as Carlos Ghosn, Elon Musk, E-on Board, Peter Head (former Arup founder) get embraced, supported, replicated and brought to scale- not resisted- by the Leaders within the Large-scale energy corporations around the globe That is what I dream.
- We need and can build some New Bridges on Energy Architecture & Sustainability Inside our own Nations and Economies and crossing Borders- in our Trade (Developed- Developing)
- The Energy professional of today and tomorrow - is invited and asked to be able to: - Balance, listen and translate needs and views of the variety of (national and international) stakeholders into a workable vision and plan.- Innovate and lead the local-, regional- and global energy architectures to a next level of performance.- Work for the business whilst maintaining an eye on society and the common good, economy (profitability), sustainability and relevance. Global Change has everything to do with the rise in population, the general increase and rapid distribution of wealth and the growing needs for Energy (to fuel the people and economies). Global Change has also much to do with the dynamic shifts in geo-political balances and (international) relationships and decision making, the ways in which the global, regional and national energy markets develop and in the ways we dare to elevate our societies for the better including sustainability. As Energy is a relative slow moving, but a very large sector - our today's decisions, choices and behaviours in aggregate and in the Energy Land determine to a large degree the outcome of our efforts.Will we stay out of trouble? Will we be surprised? Or are we going to meet a wall? Today's Stewardship over the Energy Architecture is hence an essential new leadership skill: In Business and in Governments.
- Year 2015 is and has been a Pivot Year in Energy Land At the end of 2015 -we have seen and experienced the results of years’ of climate change negotiations : The adaptation of the Paris Agreement. In September of 2015, the UN agreed to embark on a ground-breaking program of capacity and capability building in the realms of Sustainable Development. In both of these programs- Energy and the Energy Sector are crucial and vital element for it’s success. Stewardship over the Energy Architecture, Energy transition and Innovation [1] in a global-, local- and corporate setting is a new (and urgent) government and business leadership role to learn . IN addition: The world is craving for resources. Resource exploitation becomes ever more complex and costly. The future of resource exploitation complex and difficult to improve or innovate. How do we stay out of trouble in a world where everybody wants to win or live abundant- and in an industry sector which is reaching it’s limits of growth or is running towards scarcity or unsustainability? And not forgetting all the concerns with human live, health (in consuming the product) and our natural environment (“the great acceleration“) . Well – that- and in a nutshell- is the Energy sector, today. In very simple terms- one could state that the Energy Sector – and over the coming 15-30 years has the following three objectives: Support the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Implement the Paris Agreement. Provide Energy to our Societies. So the Theme for Year 2016 is simple: How (best) can we organize ourselves in order to support and achieve the above objectives? How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world – reliably, sustainably, affordable, and in harmony? Can we build Sustainable Societies for all? Stewardship over the Energy Architecture[1] in a global-, local- and corporate setting is to our mind a new and urgent business leadership role. Energy For One World practice focus is on the outlook and present workings of our world energy system- and how we can improve our individual and collective strategies, decisions and action making on Energy Architecture (local, regional, and national) -for our Economies, Sustainability and Societal needs. The practice is directed towards the realization of systematic improvements in the local and global energy system and outlook. To enable partners to define and realize the opportunity space for business and government to succeed in the energy world of today and tomorrow. A key perspective is in our understanding that all nations and all people have a fundamental right for energy. In order to achieve this, and for a growing world population, we may want to improve on our local, regional and global energy system realizations. Energy For One world helps to develop a (local and relevant) strategy- balancing Energy with Economy, Society and Sustainability needs, and based on this strategy, on how to define and realize (business or national) opportunities. We have a global outreach and intelligence network – and partner with a range of very senior representatives and reputable seniors from Academics, Institutes, Energy Corporations and Consulting. ==== EFOW practice focus simple: Our practice approach is simple and mild : helping our customers to organize the system changes needed (energy transition) and integrate the Paris Agreement, UN sustainable development agenda in the better energy architecture, transition and innovation developments. As no other- we understand that every Nation and every company has his own history, culture and natural needs for progression. If you want to read more on our working approach and considerations: Go an read our working practice contributions to Energy Architecture and the Sustainable Development Goals: Lets Get Started! We are proud to announce Four Practice Services specifically focused on Energy Transition and integrating the UN Sustainable Development goals into the Mainstream Energy Sector: Executive Energy Education and Outreach Speaking Engagements and Advise Performance Platforms (Example India) Teams (Example Mexico)