The future of EnergyTrends, issues, ideas, scenarios Guillaume FERY March 2012
The Two sides of the debateSUPPY DEMAND Cost of renewable Energy efficiency New technologies Social and individual behaviour Energy prices Acceptance (nuclear, grid) Life of nuclear fleet A big need for sober economy The real cost of energy, and energy eficiencytransparancy World standards for safety Low carbon production It is a global problem: there will be no « national only » policies
Key Trends Rising energy needs, worldwide Growth in emerging countries Predominent marketshare for fossile energy in the long term Booming market for unconventional energsources Saddly, still millions of people with no access to energy
Energy and carbon issuesPower generation is the first source of GhG CO2 emissions by sector. Source: IEA WEO 2009
Energy, ressources and contrainsts Carbon targets Ressources International objectives Peak oil, etc Camcun protocol Carbon emissions today : 30 billions tons Carbon tagets : 20 billions in 2035, 13 billions in 2050 ! In order to limit global warming at 2°CInternational green agenda is the first lever to RENEWABLESact and enter a low carbon revolution. Not just NUCLEARa question of resources. ENERGY EFFCIENCY
Experts (technical, financials) are key but …new stakeholders in the energy debate MAN IN THE STREET LOCAL AUTHORITIES NGOs Big impact on local policies Acceptance Construction Voice of the customer City planning Tansportation
What scenario ?Clear rules versus uncertaintyUncertainty A need for FLEXIBILITYTechnological In the long term;Policies scenarios should allowEconomy flexibility, not closing anyDemography door, able to adapt andFinance cope with various technologies and emerging usages (electric vehicle, energy stotrage, shale gas, etc.)
Renewables is great, but ... we need energy 24 hours a day !• Problem with intermitent power supply•Who are the champions – Solar : Germany, Spain, Japan – Wind: China, USA, Germany• Renewable is currently 3% of the energy demand Cloudy sky = less solar power Intermitence ? NO WIND? NO SUN ? Need for energy storage Need for flexibility with other technologies, such as gas turbines to manage demand peak
Renewables is great, but ...Public acceptance + transport issues Renewable ? Transport is key = How to manage the network ? Need for many new wind farms. Land use ? Need for robust grid = acceptance of new aerial networks
Renewables is great, but ...What about energy prices on the spot market ? What about speculation on energy prices ? Renewable ? How to manage the demand peak ? How to deal with demand peak and the volatility on the spot energy market ?
Building scenarios for the future:what is the REAL price, where are the REAL costs ?No transparency in energy facts and figuresWhat about externalities and hidden costs (transport,recycling, wastes, subsidies)Key element to take into account to build a policy at anational level• Existence of Energy intensive industries / energyprices / competitivity•Maintaining a fleet to manage demand peak•Carbon carpture & sequestration strategies In the short term, need for low capital intensive solutions •Gas turbines •Long lasting technologies •Extension Plant Life Extension and Retirements •What about geopolitical effects and balance of trade ?
The future of energy: constraints Environment Public Climate change understanding Carbon And management acceptance Finance Ending Funding natural capabilities resources
Jobs, national economies and competitivenessNeed to build strong industriesGreen and energy jobsDont rely just on the internal marketDont rely on subsidiesNeed for some clarity on national policies (IEFeed In tarifs, etc.)Manage transition and change = training,educational system, etc.Think globally, energy is already to be managedat continental level, not just national.A need for transparencyReal energy pricesGive customers a fair and true signal = energy isnot cheep
Towards energy in 2050 Recommandations ?Both sides : supply and demandFocus on sober homes and sober industriesEmpower energy efficiencyAnticipate impacts of any policy or economicinitiative on jobs, CO2 emissions, investmentcapabilities, balance of tradeNeed for costs and prices transparencyWork at continent level (Europe)Establish world standards for nuclear safetyKeep the doors opened and keep an eye onany trends and technologies. Meanwhile usecurrent technologies to remain nimble flexibleto face demand.