Presentation delivered by Ben Slay on the 2014 Human Development Report's regional launch in Podgorica, Montenegro

1. Sustaining Human Progress:
Reducing Vulnerabilities and
Building Resilience
Ben Slay
UNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and CIS
Podgorica, 11 September 2014 1

2. Presentation
topics
• Report
– Global
– Regional
• Human
development
index rankings
– Montenegro
– Neighbouring
countries
2

3. Report: Core messages
• Human development is not only about enlarging
people’s choices to lead a healthy, long life, to be
educated and to enjoy a decent standard of living.
It is also about ensuring that these choices are
secure. And that requires us to understand—and
tackle—vulnerability.
-- Khalid Malik (Director, UNDP-HDRO)
• Reducing vulnerability means:
– Reducing inequality
– Building resilience to shocks/reversals
• Natural disasters
• Socio-economic, health shocks
– Better global governance, more collective action
3

4. “Structural vulnerability”
Who is vulnerable? To what? Why?
The poor, workers in the
informal sector, the socially
excluded
Economic, health
shocks
Limited
capabilities
Women, the disabled,
migrants, minorities, children
and youth, the elderly
Natural disasters,
climate change,
industrial hazards
Position in
life cycle,
society
Individuals, households,
communities, regions,
countries
Conflict, civil
unrest
Policies,
institutions
4

5. Global vulnerability indicators—Shares
of world population living, working:
80%
30%
21%
12%
5
With inadequate
social protection
In, or close to, multi-dimensional
poverty
In informal,
precarious jobs
In chronic
hunger

6. Response: Build resilience along
three thematic dimensions
• Universalism:
– Universal access to quality basic services
– Decent employment
– Social protection
• Social cohesion and inclusion:
– Non-discrimination, access to justice
– Special attention to vulnerable groups
• Disaster risk management:
– Early warning systems
– “Build back better”
6

7. The global governance response:
Before, and after, 2015
• By 2015: Meet the Millennium Development Goals—and
the Hyogo Framework for Action
– MDGs (2000-2015): Global poverty risk reduction framework
– HFA (2005-2015): Global disaster risk reduction framework
• Post-2015:
– Sustainable Development Goals that integrate:
• Social, economic, environmental dimensions of sustainable
development
• Policies/programming for development, resilience, reductions in
vulnerability
– Key events:
• UN Summit on the post-2015 development agenda (September
2015)
• World Humanitarian summit (regional consultations, 2014-2015)
7

8. Regional dimension: These issues
matter—especially in the Balkans
• Macroeconomic stagnation
• Large issues of exclusion
– Labour market
– Ethnicity (Roma)
• Social protection systems under stress
– Large informal sectors
– Demographic trends
– Fiscal constraints
• Natural disasters, climate risk
– May 2014 flooding
– Longer term:
• Rising Adriatic sea levels?
• More extreme weather events? 8

9. Growth is not lifting many boats
110
100
90
80
70
BiH
Croatia
Cyprus
Greece
Montenegro
Serbia
Slovenia
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
9
GDP (2008 = 100)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, UNDP calculations.

10. Social dimension: Unemployment
rates—high and rising . . .
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BiH Greece Serbia Montenegro Croatia Cyprus
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database, ECOFIN, national statistical offices.

11. . . . Especially for vulnerable groups
62%
55%
Unemployment
rates (2011)
43%
44%
37% 36%
27%
54%
53%
49%
65%
Youth
Roma
National
23%
29%
31%
23%
20%
14% 13%
BiH FYRoM Serbia Montenegro Croatia Albania
Sources: ILO, national statistical offices, UNDP/EU/World Bank Roma vulnerability database.

12. Human development index (HDI):
What’s behind the numbers?
• The HDI was created by Mahbub ul Haq
and Amartya Sen in 1990
• It is a composite statistic of national
averages for:
– Life expectancy
– Education attainment
– Gross national income per-capita
Mahbub
ul Haq
• Countries are ranked into four tiers:
– Very high human development
– High human development
Amartya
Sen
– Medium human development
– Low human development 12

13. National HDIs (2014): Montenegro,
its neighbours, and others
0.944
0.914
0.911
0.881
0.874
0.872
0.812
0.789
0.785
0.778
0.777
0.745
0.731
0.719
0.716
Norway (1)
USA (5)
Germany (6)
Austria (21)
Slovenia (25)
Italy (26)
Croatia (47)
Montenegro (51)
Romania (54)
Russia (57)
Bulgaria (58)
Serbia (77)
BiH (86)
China (91)
Albania (95)
Very high
human
development
High human
development
13
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.

14. National HDIs—UNDP programme
countries (2014)
0.789
0.786
0.759
0.757
0.747
0.745
0.744
0.734
0.732
0.731
0.73
0.716
0.698
0.663
0.661
0.628
0.607
Montenegro (51)
Belarus (53)
Turkey (69)
Kazakhstan (70)
Azerbaijan (76)
Serbia (77)
Georgia (79)
Ukraine (83)
FYRoM (84)
BiH (86)
Armenia (87)
Albania (95)
Turkmenistan (103)
Moldova (114)
Uzbekistan (116)
Kyrgyzstan (125)
Tajikistan (133)
High human
development
Medium human
development
Region’s only low-income
country
14
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.

15. Europe and Central Asia: Relatively
good performance . . .
Latin
America,
Caribbean
Europe,
Central Asia
East Asia,
Pacific
Regional
HDIs (2014)
World Arab States South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
0.740 0.738
0.703 0.702
0.682
0.588
0.502
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.

16. . . . But HDI improvements are slow,
compared to other regions
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Sub-Saharan
Africa
1990-2000 2000-2008 2008-2013
South Asia East Asia,
Pacific
Arab states Latin
America,
Caribbean
Europe and
Central Asia
16
Average annual growth in national human development index scores (regional averages).
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.

17. For more
information,
please see:
http://hdr.undp.
org/en/2014-
report
Thank you
very much!
ben.slay@undp.org