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2018 DRR Financing 5.6 Maxim Bouev

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Play with Cats and Don't Get Scratched: Network Analysis to Model Cat Risks

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2018 DRR Financing 5.6 Maxim Bouev

  1. 1. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 2
  2. 2. MAIN POINTS •  David Simmons: «Historically catastrophe insurance has focussed on property loss, but the scope is far wider, e.g. disaster response» •  Modelling catastrophe risks is part of a wider problem – the correct accounting of economic risks that a country, a region or a city faces •  For many countries in the region in question we do not still have a reliable risk model •  Existing modelling do not take into account second- (and higher) order effects when assessing risks, and probable maximum loss •  Second-order effects depend on critical infrastructure (CI) and its importance for impact diffusion pathway •  Network analysis helps to model that •  Even if we have a perfect model – what if central points in CI lie beyond country borders? MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 3
  3. 3. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 4 Second order effects: Oh et al (2010)
  4. 4. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 5 Higher order effects: Kadri et al (2014)
  5. 5. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 6 Critical infrastructure and EVD spread: Fang et al (2016)
  6. 6. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 7 Centrality in network analysis: Tapiocozzo (2015)
  7. 7. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 8 Central points in CI may be located beyond country borders
  8. 8. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 9 +44 207 802 22 80

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